By Eric Koreen and Eric Nehm | The Athletic, 2026-06-01 09:30:49
我们要像1999年那样尽情狂欢了。
随着圣安东尼奥马刺队在周六晚上的抢七大战中击败俄克拉荷马雷霆队，他们锁定了与纽约尼克斯队的NBA总决赛对决，重演了1999年那个因停摆而缩水的赛季的巅峰之战。虽然一个分区的2号种子对阵另一个分区的3号种子看起来算不上什么惊天冷门，但在《The Athletic》NBA编辑部的33名成员中，只有两人在季后赛开始前预测到了这一对决。
因此，我们把麦克风交给埃里克·科林 (Eric Koreen) 和埃里克·内姆 (Eric Nehm)，让他们来聊聊自己是如何以及为何能未雨绸缪、精准预测的。
科林： 周六对于名叫埃里克的英俊天才们来说，是一个具有里程碑意义的夜晚，埃里克。随着马刺的晋级，我们成功预测了会师总决赛的两支球队，而我们的同事们全猜错了。我们是不是应该在多伦多和密尔沃基的中间点挂一面总冠军旗帜？显然，那个地方在密歇根州的韦弗利。
既然我们预测对了，那确实值得好好庆祝一番，毕竟我们俩谁也没选火箭队（编辑注：科林选了）或者猛龙队（编辑注：内姆选了）赢下首轮系列赛。不，我们简直是完美的。
我想先从东部谈起，因为对我来说，东部的选择似乎更显而易见，同行们的预测也印证了这一点：尼克斯在东部冠军的投票中高居第二，仅次于波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics)；而马刺在西部仅排在第三，落后于俄克拉荷马雷霆队和丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets)。是什么让你倾向于尼克斯能冲出东部？你是不是也和我一样，觉得预测尼克斯比预测马刺代表西部出线要容易得多？
内姆： 没错。我也觉得东部比西部更容易预测，但这不仅与尼克斯有关，也与东部其他球队的状况息息相关。
在我看来，进入季后赛时，尼克斯是东部天赋最强劲的球队。杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 也许不是常规赛MVP的领跑者，但在过去三个赛季中，他每年都入选了最佳阵容第二阵，并且自2022年加盟以来，他就是尼克斯无可争议的领袖。OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 都是非常优秀的球员，他们无所不能，并且随时能在关键时刻挺身而出。而新任主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 最大化了阵容中其他球员的贡献，这是汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 在纽约执教五年期间未能做到的。
当我审视东部其他球队时，我脑子里有太多疑问。底特律活塞队从未经历过季后赛的残酷洗礼。波士顿凯尔特人虽然打出了一个惊艳的常规赛，但他们当时正试图让刚刚从跟腱断裂中复出的杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 融入球队，同时还要备战季后赛。克利夫兰骑士队拥有詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)。而随着泰雷斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 双双因伤缺席季后赛，东部其余球队根本不具备争冠底蕴。因此，只能是尼克斯。
你在尼克斯身上看到了什么？
科林： 对我来说，东部我只考虑了两支球队：波士顿和纽约。凯尔特人在常规赛末段的表现让我有些犹豫，当时塔图姆伤愈复出且看起来很健康。他们显得非常强大。不过，由于他短期内健康状况的不确定性，我最终还是坚持了自己季前对东部冠军的预测——尼克斯。
听尼克斯球迷和旁观者谈论他们的赛季其实挺有意思的。整个赛季充斥着焦虑，我也能理解：他们可是尼克斯，倒霉事总爱找上他们。他们在首发阵容的构建上确实存在一些问题，尤其是布里奇斯的表现。
不过，他们保持了健康，而且从宏观来看非常扎实。他们的进攻效率排名联盟第四，防守效率排名第七。这完全就是总冠军争夺者的底色。我对尼克斯的信心也源于他们与我报道的球队——多伦多猛龙队 (Toronto Raptors) 的常规赛交锋，尼克斯以5-0横扫了他们，且每场净胜分都不少于16分。
我在想，外界对尼克斯的一些质疑是否源于对这支球队铺天盖地的媒体报道，以及对其弱点的无限放大。显而易见，尼克斯受到的关注度极高，报道极其深入，这不可避免地导致他们的缺陷被置于显微镜下。我不知道雄鹿队夺冠时你是什么感受，但在2019年，我曾预测猛龙会在东部决赛中输给密尔沃基，并在总决赛中输给金州勇士队 (Golden State)，因为在那一年里，在我的脑海中，他们的弱点盖过了他们的优势。至少对我而言，失败的阴影比成功的喜悦停留得更久、更深。
我们都同意，在季后赛前选择马刺从西部突围是一个更需要勇气的决定。你为什么会选择他们？
内姆： 西部确实要难预测得多，因为马刺和雷霆本赛季都非常出色。不过最终，我选择马刺有以下几个原因。
卫冕是一件极其困难的事情。我曾报道过雄鹿在2021-22赛季的卫冕之路。他们打出了一个伟大的赛季，阿德托昆博也处于个人能力的巅峰。但克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton) 在首轮受伤，未能复出。最终，雄鹿独木难支，在第二轮输给了凯尔特人。
我当时没想到杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 最终会缺席几乎整个季后赛，但他整个赛季都在与大腿后侧肌群伤势作斗争。这就是试图卫冕的球队经常会遇到的情况。在短时间内打太多的比赛，即使是阵容最深厚的球队也会感到疲惫不堪。
除此之外，马刺是一支非常出色的球队，而且他们与雷霆的对位非常占优。我认为，由于文班亚马的耀眼表现，他们外线防守者的实力在本赛季被低估了。看到斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 差了几票没能入选最佳防守阵容，我感到很遗憾，因为我认为他是NBA中最具破坏力的外线防守者之一。而在击败雷霆的系列赛中，他们的外线防守者将这一优势展现得淋漓尽致。
再加上文班亚马个人的伟大与成长，以及他在最大舞台上证明自己的强烈渴望，让人感觉他们就是那支能在西部掀翻雷霆的球队。
你是如何认定马刺会代表西部联盟晋级NBA总决赛的？
科林： 在阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 无法完全康复的情况下，我不信任丹佛的防守体系。因此对我来说，西部同样是两强争霸。雷霆是更常规的选择，想要不选他们确实挺难的。
不过，常规赛交锋记录的某些特质，让我对其给予了比平时更多的关注——坦白说，我通常根本不在乎常规赛的交锋战绩。在文班亚马出勤状况不定的情况下，马刺在与雷霆的五次交手中赢下了四场。正如你所提到的，马刺针对谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 所展现出的多层次防守显得真实且可复制。在雷霆这位MVP候选人在抢七大战中打出精彩表现之前，我没料到他在系列赛中会挣扎到那种程度，但他常规赛对阵马刺时58.9%的真实命中率在我看来并非偶然。这是他今年对阵任何一支西部球队时的最低纪录。
然而，更重要的是，我发现自己总是回到一个问题：如果我们继续坚信文班亚马是我们前所未见的奇才——事实也确实如此——那为什么他的球队非要遵循“必须先在世界大赛的舞台上交学费才能夺冠”的传统认知呢？这家伙的外号可是“外星人”。我和所有人一样崇敬乔丹和詹姆斯，我们也知道他们等了多久才迎来突破。但他们生活在一个王朝林立的时代。而在杜兰特和库里联手的勇士队解体后，联盟一直处于群雄割据的均势时代，既然雷霆疲惫不堪且阵容不整，文班亚马又凭什么非要等待呢？
现在，我相信我们俩在季后赛前都预测了马刺夺冠，根本没把NBA杯的结果当回事。如今，两队的打法、健康状况，或者仅仅是氛围，有没有改变你对谁将捧起奥布莱恩杯（Larry O’B）的看法？
内姆： 在首轮对阵亚特兰大老鹰队 (Atlanta Hawks) 遭遇艰难开局后，尼克斯在季后赛中的表现甚至超出了我的预期。他们让唐斯担任组织者和传球手来创造更多进攻机会，这让他们的进攻在布伦森身边显得更加均衡。这是他们作为一个整体打得最好的一段时间，但遗憾的是，我不知道这是否能起到决定性作用。
马刺的防守实在是太出色了。布伦森虽然是与吉尔杰斯-亚历山大风格不同的球员，但马刺的外线防守群应该能给他制造比尼克斯在东部遇到的任何对手都要巨大的麻烦。乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 的存在将让文班亚马在防守端游刃有余，并进一步打乱尼克斯的进攻部署。
圣安东尼奥仍然是一支年轻的球队，所以他们可能会在系列赛中出现起伏，但我不想改变我的预测。我仍然坚定选择马刺。
科林： 坦白说：当我为我们的总决赛前瞻提交预测时，我坚持选择了马刺，预测他们通过抢七大战夺冠。但当时我就觉得有些不妥，现在依然如此。这次我决定预测尼克斯抢七夺冠。
选择与拥有最强球员的球队作对让我心里直打鼓，尤其是当这位球员注定每晚都会在防守端产生极其恐怖的影响力时。但我认为，作为主防文班亚马的人选，阿奴诺比和任何人相比都毫不逊色。显然，文班能轻松在阿奴诺比头上出手，但想要强吃他或过掉他可没那么容易，这能让纽约无需像其他许多球队那样频繁地进行协防。
我认为这可能会成为这轮势均力敌的系列赛的分水岭。尼克斯拥有足够多处于高水平状态的进攻选择，这能让布伦森打出高水准的表现，而这或许就足够了，不需要他在面对世界上最强护筐手时非得逼出最巅峰的自己。由于我对达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 的健康状况、卡斯尔的决策能力以及马刺只能算差强人意的投篮表现存有诸多疑问，尽管非常纠结，我最终还是选择纽约尼克斯。
在这之后，大概有十年的时间，我都不会再预测文班输球了。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals seemed unlikely before the playoffs. They saw it coming
The Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals seemed unlikely before the playoffs. They saw it coming
We’re about to party like it’s 1999.
With their Game 7 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night, the San Antonio Spurs locked in a NBA Finals rematch from the lockout-shortened 1999 season, pitting the Spurs against the New York Knicks. While a No. 2 seed from one conference playing a No. 3 seed from the other doesn’t seem like a wild upset, only two of the 33 members of The Athletic’s NBA staff predicted the matchup before the playoffs started.
Accordingly, we’re giving Eric Koreen and Eric Nehm the floor to explain how and why they saw this coming.
Koreen: Saturday was a landmark night for handsome geniuses named Eric, Eric. With the Spurs’ win, we correctly predicted the two teams competing in the NBA Finals, unlike all of our colleagues. Should we hang a banner halfway between Toronto and Milwaukee? Apparently that would be in Waverly, Mich.
We did it, so we really deserve to take our victory lap, because it’s not like either of us picked the Rockets (Editor’s note: Koreen did) or the Raptors (Editor’s note: Nehm did) to win their first-round series. No, we were perfect.
I want to start with the Eastern Conference, simply because that seemed like the more straightforward of the two picks to me, with the predictions of our peers backing that up: The Knicks received the second-most votes to win the conference, behind only the Boston Celtics, while the Spurs were third out West, behind Oklahoma City and the Denver Nuggets. What made you lean toward the Knicks to come out of the East? Like me, did you also find that prediction easier to make than taking the Spurs to represent the West?
Nehm: You’re correct. I thought the Eastern Conference was easier to pick than the Western Conference, but that had just as much to do with the Knicks as it had to do with the rest of the conference.
The Knicks, in my opinion, had the most talent of any team in the East heading into the playoffs. Jalen Brunson might not be an MVP candidate, but he has been a second-team All-NBA player each of the last three seasons and the undisputed leader of the Knicks since joining the team in 2022. OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns are all great players who can do a little bit of everything and step up on any given night. And new head coach Mike Brown has maximized the contributions from the rest of the roster in a way that Tom Thibodeau could not during his five-year tenure in New York.
When I looked at the rest of the conference, I had too many questions. Detroit had never been through the rigors of a postseason run. Boston had a spectacular regular season, but the Celtics were trying to integrate Jayson Tatum as he made his return from a torn Achilles as they were getting ready for the playoffs. Cleveland had James Harden. And with Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo both injured and out of the playoffs, the rest of the conference didn’t have any championship equity. So, it had to be the Knicks.
What did you see in the Knicks?
Koreen: To me, there were only two teams that I considered in the East: Boston and New York. The Celtics’ close to the season, when Tatum returned from his injury and looked healthy, gave me pause. They looked excellent. Still, the uncertainty over his short-term health made me stick with my preseason prediction for the conference winner — the Knicks.
It was funny hearing Knicks fans and observers talk about their season. It was full of angst, and I get it: They’re the Knicks; bad things tend to happen to them. They had some real issues surrounding the constitution of their starting lineup, and the performance of Bridges in particular.
They were healthy, though, and they were solid in the macro sense. They ranked fourth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defense. That screams championship contender. My confidence in the Knicks was helped by their season series against the team I cover, the Toronto Raptors, as they swept them 5-0, never winning by fewer than 16 points.
I wonder if some of the doubt for the Knicks came from the intense coverage of the team, and the zeroing in on their weaknesses. For obvious reasons, the Knicks are covered with exceptional depth, and that inevitably results in a zoomed-in view of their flaws. I don’t know how you felt when the Bucks won the title, but in 2019, I picked the Raptors to lose to both Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference finals and to Golden State in the finals because their weaknesses loomed larger than their strengths in my mind over the course of the year. At least for me, failure lingers longer and more strongly than success.
We can both agree that picking the Spurs in the Western Conference was the braver pre-playoffs pick. Why did you land on them?
Nehm: The West was much more difficult to try to predict because the Spurs and Thunder were both so good this season. Ultimately, though, I went with the Spurs for a few reasons.
Repeating is incredibly difficult. I covered the Bucks’ attempt to do it in 2021-22. They put together a great season, and Antetokounmpo was at the peak of his powers. But Khris Middleton suffered an injury in the first round and couldn’t get back. In the end, the Bucks didn’t have enough and lost to the Celtics in the second round.
I had no idea that Jalen Williams would end up missing nearly the entire postseason, but he had struggled with his hamstring all season long. These are just the kinds of things that happen to teams that attempt to repeat. It’s just so much basketball in a short period of time, and it wears on even the deepest teams.
On top of that, the Spurs are a spectacular team that matched up well against the Thunder. I thought their perimeter defenders were overlooked this season because of Wembanyama’s brilliance. I was disappointed to see Stephon Castle end up a few votes short of making an All-Defensive team because I thought he was one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the NBA. And their perimeter defenders showed all of that in their victory over the Thunder.
Add in Wembanyama’s individual greatness and growth, as well as his desire to prove himself on the biggest stages, and it felt like they were the team that could topple the Thunder in the West.
How did you come to view the Spurs as the team that would represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals?
Koreen: I didn’t trust Denver’s defensive infrastructure with Aaron Gordon never fully healthy, so, to me, the West was also a two-team proposition. The Thunder were the more conventional choice. I had trouble picking against them.
There was something about the nature of the season series that made me consider it more than I usually would with regular-season games — I generally don’t care about the season series at all, frankly. The Spurs won four out of five games against the Thunder, with Wembanyama’s availability all over the place. As you mentioned, the layers to the defense that the Spurs could use against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander felt real and repeatable. I didn’t see him struggling as much as he did in the series, before the MVP delivered a brilliant Game 7, but his 58.9 percent true shooting against the Spurs in the regular season didn’t seem like a fluke to me. That was the lowest mark he had against any Western Conference team this year.
More than that, however, I found myself coming back to one question: If we are going to continue to say that Wembanyama is unlike anyone we have ever seen before — and he is — why should his team have to conform to the conventional wisdom that a team has to lose on a big stage before it can win there? The guy is nicknamed The Alien. I revere Jordan and LeBron as much as the next person, and we know how long they had to wait to break through. But they lived in an era of dynasties. In a league that has been defined by parity since the dissolution of the Durant/Curry Warriors, why should Wembanyama have had to wait, especially if the Thunder were fatigued and not fully healthy?
Now, I believe we both picked the Spurs to win the title before the playoffs, not giving a darn about the result of the NBA Cup. Has anything about how either team is playing, who is healthy or just the vibes changed how you’re feeling about who’s going to lift the Larry O’B?
Nehm: After a rough start to their first-round series against the Hawks, the Knicks have played even better than I expected in the postseason. They’ve used Towns as a facilitator and passer to create more offense, and that has given their offensive attack greater balance around Brunson. This is the best that they’ve played together as a group and, unfortunately, I don’t know if that’s going to matter.
The Spurs’ defense is just too good. Brunson is a different player than Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Spurs’ perimeter defenders should be able to make it tougher on him than anyone the Knicks have faced in the Eastern Conference. Josh Hart will give Wembanyama someone to play off of defensively and further muck things up for the Knicks.
San Antonio is still a young team, so it could stumble in this series, but I’m not interested in changing my prediction. I’ll stick with the Spurs.
Koreen: Full disclosure: When I submitted my prediction for our finals preview, I stuck with the Spurs, who I had winning in seven games. But it didn’t sit right with me then, and it still doesn’t. I’m taking the Knicks in 7.
It makes me itchy to go against the team with the best player, especially when he is guaranteed to be outrageously impactful on one end of the court every night. But I think Anunoby is as good a candidate as anybody to give Wembanyama a hard time as a primary defender. Obviously, Wemby will be able to shoot over Anunoby, but going through him or by him will be difficult, allowing New York to not help quite as much as many teams.
I think that could make the difference in a series I think should be very close. They have enough offensive options playing at high levels that Brunson can be a good version of himself, and that might be enough, not having to access his peak performance against the best rim protector in the world. I have enough questions about De’Aaron Fox’s health, Castle’s decision-making and their just OK shooting that I’ll take New York, albeit with plenty of hesitation.
And then I’m not picking against Wemby for, like, a decade.
By Eric Koreen and Eric Nehm, via The Athletic