By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-03 12:30:00
马刺在常规赛中对阵尼克斯时打得很挣扎。纽约是否应该因为这些交手记录而被视作夺冠热门？
玛丽琳·杜宾斯基 (Marilyn Dubinski): 尽管马刺在纽约的失利是他们二月份唯一的污点，但如果说我们在今年季后赛中学到了什么，那就是不要把常规赛当回事。季中锦标赛决赛时，文班还在打替补（且由于祖母去世，他显然有些分心），而马刺赢下了他们的主场比赛（尽管那是靠着朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 投进创队史纪录的11记三分球）。这些比赛在各自的层面上都是特例，而且自那以后，两支球队都取得了长足的进步。现在也很难说该如何准确评估尼克斯，因为他们刚在常规赛末段令人失望，紧接着又在季后赛前三轮一路横扫过关，这部分得益于东部另一半区出现的冷门。我认为这将是一场非常势均力敌的对决，但主场优势将成为马刺胜出的关键。
马克·巴林顿 (Mark Barrington): 不会，因为自那以后两支球队都变强了许多。很难知道现在的尼克斯到底有多强，因为他们一直在东部季后赛这个“幼儿池”里套圈对手。
兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 能否继续看起来像个更高、更壮的斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)？[我认为他的投篮表现会在这个系列赛中回归常态，但他仍将是他们的关键球员。]
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 能否凭借其紧凑的身材和顶级的身体控制力创造出足够的出手空间？[我认为维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的臂展会在禁区内干扰到他。]
唐斯（KAT）能否避免每场比赛领到4到5次愚蠢的犯规？[想得美。唐斯就是唐斯。]
乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 是终极拼图球员吗？[是的。]
米奇·罗宾逊 (Mitch Robinson) 到底能不能上场？如果能，他能罚进球吗？[就在我们说话的时候，索汉正在教他单手罚球技术呢。]
问题在于，尼克斯目前还不是一个已知数。到目前为止，他们打出了一段不可思议的征程，但几乎没有受到真正的考验。他们轻松击败了摆在面前的对手。我觉得目前来看，这是一场势均力敌的对决。
德文·博德松 (Devon Birdsong): 夺冠热门？不，我真不这么认为。克利夫兰可能是东部最无法给他们制造麻烦的球队，而且东部显而易见依然是整体实力较弱的分区。老实说，如果不是76人施展了莫名其妙的魔法淘汰了凯尔特人，我甚至不确定尼克斯能否走到这里。在我看来，这两支球队实力异常接近，而且由于双方的健康状况都比之前的交手时更好，我认为你必须把整个系列赛看作是重新开始。与雷霆不同，尼克斯在首轮对阵老鹰的系列赛中确实遇到了至少一次真正的挑战，但我仍然认为马刺会从中受益，因为他们在几乎每一个系列赛中都必须克服重重困难。如果我从旁观者的角度来看，我更倾向于认同拉斯维加斯的赔率，实际上会稍微看好马刺。
杰杰·戈麦斯 (Jeje Gomez): 到了季后赛，常规赛的胜负对我来说没有实际的对位情况那么重要。考虑到这一点，我不认为尼克斯应该成为夺冠热门，但他们也不应该被低估。他们确实给文班亚马制造了巨大的对位麻烦，而且他们拥有一群侧翼球员，既有可能限制圣安东尼奥的突破，又能用投篮惩罚过度协防。在西部决赛之后，几乎不可能认为还有比马刺更好的NBA球队，但就对位而言，尼克斯绝对是危险的。
比赛的哪个方面将决定谁能夺得总冠军戒指？
杜宾斯基: 我认为这将是三分球投射和三分防守的结合。马刺最大的关键在于，不要为了协防布伦森而漏掉外线的射手。这一招对阵明尼苏达时效果很好，因为他们缺乏射手，而且爱德华兹并不总是寻求传球，但在对阵俄克拉荷马城时险些让他们付出代价，因为卡鲁索和麦凯恩在某些时间段手感火热，这也是为什么他们后来调整回了“掐死其他人，让亚历山大一个人来击败我们”的策略。尼克斯有七名主力轮换球员在常规赛中场均三分出手3次以上且命中率超过36%，因此马刺不能放弃对三分球的防守。信任卡斯尔（或者任何防守布伦森的人），坚守岗位，打人盯人防守。让他们通过单打来击败你。
巴林顿: 尼克斯是一支投射大量三分球的球队，而且在季后赛中，他们的三分命中率非常高。马刺的防守依赖于让文班亚马在场上游走，以扫荡对手的内线和中距离投篮，这有时意味着他们会允许对手在远距离获得空位。这在对阵雷霆时很有效，因为他们没有很多顶级射手。而尼克斯的每个人都能投三分，除了可能根本不上场的米奇·罗宾逊。因此，在对阵纽约时，马刺必须让防守球员紧贴射手，而这可能会给布伦森拉开突破通道。如果尼克斯破解了马刺的防守，他们将赢得这个系列赛，因为马刺无法在对攻大战中击败这些家伙。好吧，也许朱利安·尚帕尼可以。
博德松: 投篮似乎是个显而易见的答案，因为尼克斯在季后赛中的三分命中率、投篮命中率、有效命中率和真实命中率都领跑全联盟，但我认为这可能真正取决于两个特定的对位，以及一个变数：阿奴诺比 (Anunoby) 防守文班、卡斯尔防守布伦森，以及卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 因素。
正如几周前在Twitter/X上指出的那样，在至少防守过这位马刺球星100次半场对位的球员中，阿奴诺比场均对位失分是最少的。尽管在身高上处于劣势，但他拥有惊人的臂展和力量，而且迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 和他的教练组有充足的时间来观察雷霆在阻止文班要位方面有多么成功。庆幸的是，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 在防守布伦森时曾取得过不小的成功，让后者十分难受（在卡斯尔作为主要防守者的38个回合中，布伦森仅得到5分，投篮命中率被限制在28.7%），但现在防守布伦森又多了一个变数，因为唐斯在季后赛中实际上承担了相当一部分的组织分球重任。你不能只盯着布伦森来掐断纽约的传导球。这就是为什么唐斯是这个系列赛的变数。凭借他的传球功底（场均6次助攻）和远投能力，他让尼克斯能够同时派上两位真正的内线大闸，而他的投篮（季后赛三分命中率接近50%）会将文班拉离篮下——因为文班是唯一有身高去干扰他投篮的球员，这使得内线门户大开，而唐斯又有能力找到空位队友。我认为这个系列赛的很大程度上将取决于马刺能否以及如何用其他球员来防守这一点。我想知道我们最终是否会看到大量的“法式香草” (French Vanilla)。
戈麦斯: 既然投篮已经被提过了，那我就选失误和节奏。尼克斯打得很慢，而且很少失误。他们拥有布伦森，他通常可以在半场阵地战中随时随地获得出手机会，并且他们还拥有坚固、无限换防的防守。如果他们掌控了比赛的节奏，马刺可能会遇到麻烦。如果圣安东尼奥能制造一些失误并推快节奏，他们就会处于非常有利的局面。
预测时间：谁将赢得总冠军？你认为系列赛会如何发展？
杜宾斯基: 马刺4-3夺冠**。** 我认为这将和上一轮一样艰难，从对位来看甚至可能还要更难一些。其间会有某支球队手感滚烫而另一支手感冰冷的时候，但我相信马刺的韧性、决心、意志力以及做出调整的能力。（另外，我希望他们在主场夺冠，但不觉得会在第五场解决战斗。此外，我已经臣服于柯基犬的神力，所以我必须相信它。）
巴林顿: 马刺4-2夺冠。两支球队都死守主场，直到第六场，马刺将在麦迪逊广场花园 (MSG) 夺得总冠军，让主场球迷心碎。6月16日，在你们的日历上画个圈吧！
维克托·文班亚马将荣膺总决赛MVP，这不会让任何人感到意外。朋友们，接下来的两周将会让人非常紧张。
博德松: 对我来说，我认为尼克斯展现出了马刺在对阵森林狼时所遇到的所有问题，但他们的弱点没有那么明显。他们拥有臂展、体型和强硬度，但他们同时也拥有众多的三分射手。他们拥有一个健康的、在得分和组织上都堪称顶级的核心后卫。而且他们拥有一个在现实中（而非理论上）能够拉开空间并完成传球的大前锋。对阵明尼苏达的系列赛打了六场。除非出现重大伤病，否则我无法想象这轮系列赛不会打满七场。而在那种情况下，我认为主场优势可能会成为决定性因素。马刺4-3夺冠。
戈麦斯: 我预测马刺4-2夺冠。尼克斯是一个可怕的对手，但我们已经看到“银黑军团”在季后赛中提升到了另一个档次。我预计这将是一个焦灼的系列赛，即使三分球的起伏可能会让一两场比赛变成任何一方的惨败，但如果圣安东尼奥有机会在客场结束战斗，我能预见到他们会展现出对阵雷霆时所表现出的杀手本能。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The Spurs’ regular season struggles vs. the Knicks are irrelevant in the Finals
The Spurs’ regular season struggles vs. the Knicks are irrelevant in the Finals
The Spurs struggled against the Knicks in the regular season. Should New York be considered the favorite because of those matchups?
Marilyn Dubinski: While the Spurs’ loss in New York was their lone blemish of February, if we’ve learned anything in these playoffs, it’s to disregard the regular season. The Cup Final came with Wemby still coming off the bench (and admittedly not focused since he had lost his grandmother), and the Spurs won their home game (albeit behind a franchise record 11 threes from Julian Champagnie). All those games were outliers in their own ways, and both teams have come a long way since then. It’s also hard to know what exactly to think of the Knicks right now because of how quickly they went from disappointing to close the regular season to flying through an easy first three rounds in part due to upsets on the other side of the East bracket. I think it will be a very tight match-up, but homecourt advantage will be the difference for the Spurs.
Mark Barrington: No, because both teams have gotten a lot better since then. It’s hard to know how good the Knicks are right now, since they’ve been lapping the field in the kiddie pool that is the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Can Landry Shamet continue to look like a bigger, stronger Steph Curry? [I think his shooting returns to Earth in this series, although he will continue to be a key player for them.]
Is Jalen Brunson going to be able to create enough space with his compact structure and elite body control? [I think that Victor’s length will bother him in the paint.]
Will KAT avoid taking 4 or 5 dumb fouls per game? [As if. KAT gotta KAT.]
Is Josh Hart the ultimate glue guy? [Yes.]
Will Mitch Robinson even play, and if he does, can he hit a free throw? [Jeremy Sochan is teaching him the one-handed free-throw technique as we speak.]
The deal is that the Knicks aren’t a known quantity at this point. They’ve had an incredible run so far, but they’ve hardly been tested. They’ve beaten the teams in front of them, and handily. I feel like it’s a pretty even matchup at this point.
Devon Birdsong: The favorite? No, I don’t really think so. Cleveland may have been the team least suited to giving them trouble in the East, and the East is still pretty visibly the weaker conference to begin with. I’m honestly not sure the Knicks would even be here if the Sixers hadn’t summoned the inexplicable magic that put them over the Celtics. I see these teams as being remarkably even, and with a cleaner bill of health than previous matchups, I think you have to take this whole series as a start from scratch. Unlike the Thunder, the Knicks did get at least one real challenge in their opening series against the Hawks, but I still think the Spurs are going to benefit from having had to overcome so much in practically every series. If I were looking at this from an outside perspective, I’d be inclined to agree with Vegas, and slightly favor the Spurs, actually.
Jeje Gomez: Regular season wins and losses don’t matter as much to me when it comes to the playoffs as how the matchup actually went. And considering that, I don’t think the Knicks should be the favorites, but they shouldn’t be underrated either. They do present significant matchup issues for Wembanyama and they have a bunch of wings who can potentially limit San Antonio’s driving game and punish overhelp with their shooting. It’s borderline impossible after the Western Conference Finals to think that there’s a better NBA team than the Spurs, but in terms of matchups, the Knicks are definitely dangerous.
What aspect of the game will determine who gets the ring?
Dubinski: I think it will be a combination of three-point shooting and how it’s defended. The biggest key for the Spurs will be to not leave shooters open to play help defense on Brunson. It worked fine against Minnesota because they were lacking in shooters and Ant wasn’t always looking to pass, but it almost burned them against OKC because Caruso and McCain got hot in stretches, hence why they adjusted back to “Stop everyone else and make SGA beat us”. The Knicks have SEVEN main rotation players who shot over 36% from three on three or more attempts during the regular season, so the Spurs can’t cede that shot. Trust Castle (or whoever is on Brunson), stay at home, and play man-to-man defense. Make them beat you one-on-one.
Barrington: The Knicks are a team that shoots a lot of three-point shots, and in the playoffs, they’ve been going down at a high rate. The Spurs’ defense relies on letting Wembanyama roam to erase the other team’s interior and mid-range shots, which sometimes means they allow opponents to get looks from range. This was effective against the Thunder because they didn’t have a lot of elite shooters. Everyone on the Knicks can shoot three pointers, except Mitchell Robinson, who might not even play. So the Spurs are going to have to keep defenders on the shooters against New York, and that could open driving lanes for Brunson. If the Knicks solve the Spurs’ defense, they will win the series, because the Spurs can’t win a shooting contest against these guys. Well, maybe Julian Champagnie can.
Birdsong: Shooting feels like the easy answer, since the Knicks lead the playoff field in 3pt%, FG%, EFG%, and TS%, but I think it might really come down to two specific match-ups, and one wild card: Anunoby defending Wemby, Castle defending Brunson, and the Karl Anthony Towns factor.
As was pointed out a few weeks ago on Twitter/X, among players who have guarded the Spurs star in at least 100 half-court matchups, Anunoby allows the fewest points per matchup. He has tremendous length and strength in spite of the height disadvantage, and Mike Brown and his staff had plenty of time to see how successful the Thunder were in denying Wemby position. Thankfully, Stephon Castle has had his share of success in giving Jalen Brunson fits when defending him (in 38 possessions where Castle was the primary defender, Brunson scored just 5 points while being held to 28.7% from the field), but there’s an added wrinkle to defending Brunson now that KAT has effectively taken on some serious distribution responsibilities in the postseason. You can’t just focus on Brunson to shut down New York’s ball movement. And this is why Towns is the wild-card of the series. Because of his passing chops (6 assists per game) and his long-distance shooting, he allows the Knicks to run two legitimate big men, and that shooting (almost 50% from three in the postseason) pulls Wemby away from the hoop as the only player with the height to contest it, which leaves the interior up for grabs, and Towns has the ability to hit the open man. I think a lot of this series will hinge on how/if the Spurs are able to defend that with other players. I wonder if we’re going to end up seeing a lot of French Vanilla.
Gomez: Since the shooting has already been mentioned, I’ll go with turnovers and pace. The Knicks play slow and don’t cough the ball up. They have Brunson, who can normally get a good shot whenever he wants in the half-court and a solid, switchy defense. If they dictate how the game is played, the Spurs could be in trouble. If San Antonio can create some turnovers and push the pace, they’ll be in great shape.
Prediction time: Who will win the championship, and how do you think the series will go?
Dubinski: Spurs in 7**.** I think this will be just as difficult as the last round, perhaps slightly more so based on the match-up. There will be times when one team is hot and the other isn’t, but I believe in the Spurs’ grit, determination, willpower, and ability to make adjustments. (Also, I want them to win at home but don’t think it will be in Game 5. Also, also, I have submitted to the power of the Corgi, so I must trust him.)
Barrington: Spurs in 6. Both teams hold home court until Game 6, when the Spurs take the title in MSG, breaking the hearts of the home fans. June 16, mark your calendars!
Victor Wembanyama is Finals MVP, to no one’s surprise. It’s going to be a stressful couple of weeks, folks.
Birdsong: For me, I see the Knicks as presenting all of the issues the Spurs had with the Timberwolves, but with less glaring weakness. They have the length, size, and toughness, but they also have a plethora of three-point shooters. They have a healthy lead guard who is top-notch at both scoring and distributing. And they have a power forward who can stretch the floor and make the pass in reality, as opposed to in theory.The Minnesota series went six games. Barring major injury, I can’t see this not going the full seven. And in that scenario, I think home-court advantage might be the deciding factor. Spurs in 7.
Gomez: I went with Spurs in six. The Knicks are a horrible matchup, but we’ve seen the Silver and Black find another gear during the playoffs. I expect a close series, even if three-point variance turns a game or two into a blowout either way, but I can see San Antonio showing the killer instinct they displayed against the Thunder if they get a chance to end it on the road.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock