By The Athletic NBA Staff | The Athletic, 2026-04-18 09:46:25
哪支球队最有希望挑战俄克拉荷马城雷霆的卫冕之路？卫冕冠军最终能否笑到最后？
随着季后赛于周六开打，《The Athletic》向其NBA专家团队提出了这些问题，并收集了他们对首轮走势的预测。
为了分析这些选择，我们邀请了独行侠队记克里斯蒂安·克拉克 (Christian Clark)、资深撰稿人弗雷德·卡茨 (Fred Katz)、实力榜专家劳·默里 (Law Murray) 以及《The Bounce》栏目负责人扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper)。（数据四舍五入至小数点后一位。）
东部联盟
第1名 活塞 vs 第8名 魔术
| 活塞 | 魔术 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 39.4% | 0% |
| 5场 | 57.6% | 0% |
| 6场 | 3% | 0% |
| 7场 | 0% | 0% |
| 总计 | 100% | 0% |
克拉克： 魔术本赛季并不是我最喜欢的球队。他们的进攻很多时候看起来都停滞不前。我认为凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 会相当轻松地赢得职业生涯首个季后赛系列赛。
哈珀： 这将是一个场面非常难看的系列赛。活塞喜欢把一切都变得充满身体对抗且支离破碎，而魔术则总能让自己的进攻变得支离破碎。
默里： 赛季开始时，我将魔术视为潜在的分区决赛球队。这将是他们挽救这个坎坷赛季的机会。这应该是首轮八组系列赛中最惨烈的一组，我预计魔术会凭借他们在关键时刻的造诣让比赛变得有趣。
第2名 凯尔特人 vs 第7名 76人
| 凯尔特人 | 76人 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 5场 | 63.6% | 0% |
| 6场 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 7场 | 0% | 0% |
| 总计 | 100% | 0% |
哈珀： 关键在于乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 是否以及何时能上场。如果这话你听过，请叫停我。76人喜欢用泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 和VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 的后场组合打快节奏，但这可能正好落入凯尔特人的舒适区。
默里： 算上锡拉丘兹民族队的历史，这是这两支球队第23次在季后赛相遇。最大的X因素：季后赛P (Playoff P) 的回归！
卡茨： 关注凯尔特人对进攻篮板的处理。波士顿冲抢篮板的积极性和方式比NBA任何其他球队都多。这一策略将直击费城的软肋。如果没有恩比德，他们在这一环节可能会比平时更加挣扎。
第3名 尼克斯 vs 第6名 老鹰
| 尼克斯 | 老鹰 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 0% | 0% |
| 5场 | 6% | 0% |
| 6场 | 75.8% | 0% |
| 7场 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 总计 | 100% | 0% |
克拉克： 我迫不及待想看到戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels)——NBA最好的持球防守者之一——如何去缠绕杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)。当老鹰进攻时，我确信尼克斯会放空丹尼尔斯。他能投进足够的空位三分吗？尼克斯会依靠大个子球员取胜。
默里： 我很喜欢这种对称感：迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的首个季后赛系列赛，对手正是五年前汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 执教尼克斯首个季后赛系列赛的对手。甚至还有纽约市长提到了特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 的名字！对两队来说幸运的是，特雷·杨不会参加这组系列赛；对尼克斯来说幸运的是，布伦森在场，这绝对物超所值。
卡茨： 这是一个属于卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 的系列赛。老鹰没有理想的防守者来对位唐斯，也没有人能真正阻止联盟最凶猛的进攻篮板手罗宾逊冲抢篮板。如果尼克斯能发挥这些优势，他们将处于有利地位。如果老鹰能想办法干扰唐斯，那么他们还有机会。
第4名 骑士 vs 第5名 猛龙
| 骑士 | 猛龙 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 0% | 0% |
| 5场 | 21.2% | 0% |
| 6场 | 57.6% | 0% |
| 7场 | 18.1% | 3% |
| 总计 | 97% | 3% |
克拉克： 猛龙本赛季对阵精英球队的战绩并不能给人带来太多乐观情绪。正如我们的同事埃里克·科林 (Eric Koreen) 所指出的，多伦多对阵西部前六和东部前四的战绩仅为5胜22负。我也不太看好伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 刚从腿筋伤势中恢复的状态。
哈珀： 我对骑士如何让詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 和多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 同时在场时进行防守深感怀疑。幸运的是，我不确定猛龙在进攻端是否有足够的火力来提出这些挑战。
卡茨： 我觉得这可能是一个简短的系列赛。骑士的火力太猛了。多伦多是一支打球努力、防守能力出众的球队，但缺乏足够的半场进攻手段来跟上克利夫兰那些爆发力十足的得分手的节奏。
东部冠军预测
| 球队 | 得票率 |
|---|---|
| 凯尔特人 | 66.70% |
| 尼克斯 | 24.20% |
| 活塞 | 6% |
| 骑士 | 3% |
克拉克： 尼克斯是我季前赛的选择，我将坚持这一选择。本赛季有四支球队在进攻和防守端都排名前七：俄克拉荷马城、圣安东尼奥、波士顿和纽约。我喜欢尼克斯的平衡性，并相信米切尔·罗宾逊将成为替补席上巨大的胜负手。
默里： 我也坚持我季前赛选尼克斯的决定，但他们需要骑士帮个忙把活塞淘汰掉，因为活塞对阵尼克斯的比赛没让我觉得纽约有任何对付底特律的办法。
哈珀： 我选凯尔特人。我认为尼克斯拥有最好的团队，但凯尔特人的比赛风格和球队特质更强大。尼克斯可以走到那一步，谁赢下那场次轮对决，谁就可能赢得东部。波士顿现在似乎更了解自己。
卡茨： 凯尔特人。他们有鲜明的特质，而且杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 看起来比任何人预期的都要好得多。我不会拿命赌他们一定赢下东部，如果东部前四的任何一支球队赢下三轮系列赛我都不意外，但我认为波士顿是最佳选择。
延伸阅读
2026年NBA季后赛前瞻：为何雷霆有望卫冕，而尼克斯可能功亏一篑。次轮可能会变得很有趣，西部决赛可能会是史诗级的。让我们做一些预测。
西部联盟
第1名 雷霆 vs 第8名 太阳
| 雷霆 | 太阳 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 63.6% | 0% |
| 5场 | 33.3% | 0% |
| 6场 | 3% | 0% |
| 7场 | 0% | 0% |
| 总计 | 100% | 0% |
克拉克： 德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 必须应对吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lu Dort)、卡森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 组成的防守三头怪。祝他好运。俄克拉荷马城是一台精密的机器，我不认为他们在这个系列赛中会掉以轻心。对太阳来说，能打到这里本身就是一个巨大的成就。
哈珀： 太阳本赛季是一个伟大的故事，他们打破了人们对他们的低预期。当雷霆横扫他们时，他们得牢记这个故事。
卡茨： 我们都知道谁会赢下这个系列赛，所以我做一个不寻常的预测：这将是首轮最充满火药味的系列赛。它拥有的刺头球员比任何其他系列赛都多。在某个时刻，狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 会激怒至少六名雷霆球员。多尔特也会对布克做同样的事。太阳和雷霆之间存在明显的实力差距，但在某些方面，他们很像。两支球队都极具竞争意识。他们的标签就是打球努力。这可能会制造一些喧闹的季后赛时刻。
第2名 马刺 vs 第7名 开拓者
| 马刺 | 开拓者 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 5场 | 60.6% | 0% |
| 6场 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 7场 | 0% | 0% |
| 总计 | 100% | 0% |
克拉克： 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 在波特兰附加赛胜利中完成了8次篮下投篮，他是一名冲击型球员。我预测他在面对等待着的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 时会遇到困难。
默里： 这组对决吸引我，因为多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 拥有的那种内线存在感，在面对文班亚马时非常重要，而文班亚马的存在注定让斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 无法成为2023年NBA选秀的状元。说到亨德森，他需要表现出色，开拓者才有一线生机。
卡茨： 阿夫迪亚已经成为NBA最无情的篮筐攻击者。根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，他在常规赛期间场均突破篮下19.4次，位居NBA榜首。而现在，他面对的是那个比任何人都更能让突破者对禁区望而生畏的人。他会是整个赛季以来第一次在冲入禁区前三思吗？
第3名 掘金 vs 第6名 森林狼
| 掘金 | 森林狼 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 0% | 0% |
| 5场 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 6场 | 36.4% | 6% |
| 7场 | 39.4% | 6% |
| 总计 | 87.9% | 12.1% |
克拉克： 我对2024年明尼苏达抢七战胜丹佛最深刻的记忆，就是贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 在森林狼的防守压力下艰难地运球过半场。穆雷刚刚结束了他职业生涯最好的常规赛。我认为他会打出一个出色的系列赛。
哈珀： 掘金以高昂的姿态进入季后赛，但存在一些伤病隐忧。森林狼则是带着伤病隐忧蹒跚进入季后赛，但森林狼对阵丹佛时总是格外卖力，这两支球队有着有趣的交手史。我选掘金七场晋级（这是个保守的选择），但我并不确信他们一定能赢。
卡茨： 这个系列赛拥有一切。有尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 和安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 这样的超级巨星；有穆雷、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 和朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 这样的全明星级别球员；还有强悍的防守者和出色的球权串联者。最重要的是，它有历史渊源。这是过去四个赛季中两队第三次在季后赛相遇。前两次系列赛双方平分秋色。上次交手打满了七场。NBA现在没有多少伟大的宿敌对决了，但这组对决有机会成为其中之一。
第4名 湖人 vs 第5名 火箭
| 湖人 | 火箭 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4场 | 0% | 0% |
| 5场 | 0% | 30.3% |
| 6场 | 6% | 51.5% |
| 7场 | 6% | 6% |
| 总计 | 12.1% | 87.9% |
克拉克： 如果说什么时候德安德烈·艾顿 (DeAndre Ayton) 需要证明自己比巅峰时期的克林特·卡佩拉 (Clint Capela) 高出一筹，那就是现在。
默里： 如果只看纸面实力，火箭应该相当轻松地赢下这个系列赛，但他们完全不值得信任。湖人拥有主场优势，并且有足够的时间准备在没有卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的情况下打球，而勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 将获得他想要的所有球权。
哈珀： 即使东契奇或里夫斯在系列赛的某个时刻复出，他们的健康状况是否足以扭转局势？他们必须多早回归才能给湖人提供所需的帮助？与此同时，正如劳上面所说，休斯顿一点也不值得信任。
西部冠军预测
| 球队 | 得票率 |
|---|---|
| 雷霆 | 66.7% |
| 掘金 | 18.1% |
| 马刺 | 15.2% |
克拉克： 雷霆。掘金是我季前赛的西部冠军选择，但他们的总决赛之路看起来非常残酷，可能需要接连击败森林狼、马刺和雷霆。雷霆应该不需要消耗那么多精力。
默里： 我选雷霆，但与东部类似，西部也存在一个俄克拉荷马城不想在分区决赛中看到的竞争威胁。圣安东尼奥的护筐能力与丹佛的护筐能力差距巨大，雷霆需要他们最大的威胁在第二轮被解决掉。
哈珀： 我很想出个奇招选掘金或马刺。在约基奇受伤前，我会选掘金。他回归后状态大不如前，尽管依然很荒谬。如果掘金完全健康，我会选他们，但现在我更看好雷霆；不过，雷霆需要杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 找回他的最佳阵容状态。
卡茨： 雷霆。马刺很棒，但他们太年轻了。掘金令人印象深刻，也许我会因为怀疑约基奇而被打脸，但他们联盟后十名的防守实在太让人望而却步了。
雷霆的最大威胁
（附加赛开始前，BetMGM夺冠赔率在+2000或以上的球队）
| 球队 | 得票率 |
|---|---|
| 马刺 (+450) | 66.7% |
| 凯尔特人 (+550) | 18.2% |
| 掘金 (+1000) | 15.2% |
克拉克： 我认为仍然是掘金，他们去年在第二轮与雷霆激战七场。掘金本赛季的防守不是很好，但这很大程度上与阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 只打了36场比赛有关。我担心戈登的身体在这个季后赛能否撑得住。如果丹佛能保持相对健康，我认为约基奇、穆雷和其他成员可以挑战俄克拉荷马城。
默里： 雷霆本赛季输了18场比赛。其中22.2%的失利是输给了在三个不同州击败过他们的马刺。马刺是西部唯一一支雷霆无法多次击败的球队。任何关于雷霆威胁的讨论，都必须从德州腹地开始并结束。
哈珀： 我知道马刺对阵雷霆时非常有趣，并且在常规赛中占据优势，但我选掘金。去年一支混乱的掘金队将雷霆逼入了抢七。掘金仍然需要担心戈登的腿筋伤势，还得加上佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson)。但现在的掘金比去年更深厚、更出色。雷霆现在的伤病情况已经足以令人担忧。
卡茨： 凯尔特人。在凯尔特人3月底击败雷霆后，有些雷霆内部人士离开球馆时认为，他们刚刚看到了最能破坏他们卫冕机会的球队。凯尔特人可以利用雷霆唯一的弱点之一——他们平平无奇的篮板产出。波士顿是NBA最好的控球球队之一，这在面对雷霆高失误率的防守时尤为重要。凯尔特人可以同时部署多个进攻发起点，而且他们投射了足够多的三分球，如果他们在七场比赛中准四场，他们就能以胜利结束赛季。
NBA总冠军预测
| 球队 | 得票率 |
|---|---|
| 雷霆 | 60.6% |
| 掘金 | 15.2% |
| 凯尔特人 | 12.1% |
| 马刺 | 12.1% |
克拉克： NBA将迎来继2017年和2018年勇士连冠后的首个卫冕冠军。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 不知何故比一年前更强了。阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 会在季后赛中迎来属于他的高光时刻。贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 的 TikTok 舞步将成为雷霆版的里德·奥尔巴赫 (Red Auerbach) 点燃雪茄。
默里： 如果我要投注，我会选除雷霆以外的其他球队，但我手机里没装那些APP，而且雷霆已经做到了他们需要做的一切来保持热门地位。他们需要在今年季后赛表现得比去年更好才能实现卫冕。
哈珀： 我一直公开反对所谓的“实力均衡”，那不是让NBA伟大的原因。你需要反派，你需要王朝。最重要的是，你需要看到这些反派和王朝被推翻。雷霆正在变成一个反派王朝，我们需要这个。我选雷霆卫冕。
卡茨： 雷霆。他们本赛季甚至都没有保持完全健康。他们的最佳阵容侧翼威廉姆斯缺席了半个多赛季。米切尔和赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 也缺阵了很长时间。但他们依然是显而易见的最佳球队。他们去年赢得了冠军，现在他们经验更丰富，阵容也更深厚了。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA playoff predictions 2026: First-round winners, OKC’s biggest threat and title pick
NBA playoff predictions 2026: First-round winners, OKC’s biggest threat and title pick
Which team is best positioned to challenge an Oklahoma City Thunder repeat? And in the end, will the defending champions be the last team standing?
With the playoffs starting Saturday, The Athletic posed those questions to its NBA staff and solicited their choices for how the first round will shake out.
To analyze those picks, we’ve brought in Mavericks writer Christian Clark, senior writer Fred Katz, Power Rankings guru Law Murray and chairman of The Bounce Zach Harper. (Figures are rounded to the nearest tenth.)
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Pistons vs. No. 8 Magic
| Pistons | Magic | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 39.4% | 0% |
| 5 games | 57.6% | 0% |
| 6 games | 3% | 0% |
| 7 games | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 0% |
Clark: The Magic have not been my favorite team to watch this season. Their offense looks stuck in the mud a lot of the time. I think Cade Cunninham gets the first playoff series win of his career rather easily.
Harper: This will be a really ugly series. The Pistons like to make everything physical and disjointed, and the Magic just make their own stuff disjointed.
Murray: When the season started, I viewed the Magic as a potential conference finalist. This would be their chance to salvage what has been a rocky season. This should be the most brutal of the eight first-round series, and I expect the Magic to make it interesting due to their chops in clutch time.
No. 2 Celtics vs. No. 7 76ers
| Celtics | 76ers | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 18.1% | 0% |
| 5 games | 63.6% | 0% |
| 6 games | 18.1% | 0% |
| 7 games | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 0% |
Harper: The big thing is if/when Joel Embiid can play. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before. The Sixers like to play faster with the Tyrese Maxey/VJ Edgecombe backcourt, but that might play right into the Celtics’ comfort zone.
Murray: Including the history of the Syracuse Nationals, this is the 23rd time these franchises have met in the playoffs. Biggest X-Factor: The return of Playoff P!
Katz: Watch the Celtics’ approach to the offensive boards. Boston crashes the glass more aggressively and in a greater variety of ways than any other NBA team. The strategy will pick at Philadelphia’s weak spot. Without Embiid, they could struggle there even more than usual.
No. 3 Knicks vs. No. 6 Hawks
| Knicks | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 0% | 0% |
| 5 games | 6% | 0% |
| 6 games | 75.8% | 0% |
| 7 games | 18.1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 0% |
Clark: I can’t wait to see Dyson Daniels — one of the NBA’s best on-ball defenders — try to hound Jalen Brunson. When the Hawks are on offense, I’m sure the Knicks will leave Daniels wide open. Can he make enough 3s? Knicks win because of their big men.
Murray: I love the symmetry of Mike Brown’s first playoff series coming against the same team that Tom Thibodeau’s first playoff series as Knicks coach ended against five years ago. And you even have a New York mayor bringing up Trae Young’s name! Fortunately for both teams, Young isn’t playing in this series; fortunately for the Knicks, Brunson is, and that better be worth something.
Katz: This is a Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson series. The Hawks don’t have an ideal defender for Towns or one who could reasonably keep Robinson, the league’s most ferocious offensive rebounder, off the glass. If they exploit their advantages, the Knicks will be in good shape. If the Hawks cobble together ways to bother Towns, then they have a chance.
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Raptors
| Cavaliers | Raptors | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 0% | 0% |
| 5 games | 21.2% | 0% |
| 6 games | 57.6% | 0% |
| 7 games | 18.1% | 3% |
| Total | 97% | 3% |
Clark: The Raptors’ record against elite competition this season doesn’t inspire a lot of optimism. As our colleague Eric Koreen noted, Toronto went 5-22 against the West’s top six teams and the East’s top four. I don’t love that Immanuel Quickley is coming off a hamstring injury either.
Harper: I have serious questions about how the Cavs expect to defend with James Harden and Donovan Mitchell on the court together. Lucky for them, I’m not sure the Raptors have enough offensively to pose those questions.
Katz: I could see this being a short series. The Cavaliers’ firepower is too strong. Toronto is a hard-playing, defensively capable squad but lacks the half-court attack to keep up with Cleveland’s explosive scorers.
East champion
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
| Celtics | 66.70% |
| Knicks | 24.20% |
| Pistons | 6% |
| Cavaliers | 3% |
Clark: The Knicks were my preseason pick, and I’m sticking with them. Four teams finished in the top seven in offense and defense this season: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Boston and New York. I like the Knicks’ balance and believe Mitchell Robinson will be an enormous difference-maker off the bench.
Murray: I’m also sticking with my preseason Knicks pick, but they need the Cavaliers to do them a solid and take the Pistons out, because there was nothing about those Pistons-Knicks games that made me think New York has anything for Detroit.
Harper: I’m going Celtics. I think the Knicks have the best team, but the style of play and the identity of the Celtics are stronger. The Knicks can get there, and whoever wins that second-round matchup likely wins the conference. Boston just seems to know itself better right now.
Katz: Celtics. They have a distinct identity, and Jayson Tatum looks leaps and bounds better than anyone could have hoped. I wouldn’t bet my life on them winning the East. It wouldn’t surprise me if any team in the conference’s top four won three playoff series, but I think Boston is the best choice.
What You Should Read Next
Western Conference
No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 8 Suns
| Thunder | Suns | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 63.6% | 0% |
| 5 games | 33.3% | 0% |
| 6 games | 3% | 0% |
| 7 games | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 0% |
Clark: Devin Booker must deal with the Lu Dort-Cason Wallace-Alex Caruso three-headed monster. Godspeed. Oklahoma City is a machine that I don’t think will play with its food this series. It’s simply a major accomplishment for the Suns to even make it here.
Harper: The Suns are a great story this season with how they’ve demolished the low expectations for them. They’ll have to keep that story in mind as the Thunder sweep them.
Katz: We all know who will win this series, so I’ll make an off-the-beaten-path prediction: This will be the most-contentious series of the first round. It has more irritants than any other. At some point, Dillon Brooks will infuriate at least six Thunder players. Dort will do the same to Booker. There is an obvious talent gap between the Suns and Thunder, but in some ways, they are alike. Both teams are hypercompetitive. Their brand is playing hard. That could make for some raucous playoff moments.
No. 2 Spurs vs. No. 7 Trail Blazers
| Spurs | Blazers | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 27.2% | 0% |
| 5 games | 60.6% | 0% |
| 6 games | 12.1% | 0% |
| 7 games | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 0% |
Clark: Deni Avdija, who made eight shots at the rim in Portland’s Play-In Tournament win, is a downhill driver. I predict he’s going to have a hard time with Victor Wembanyama waiting for him.
Murray: This matchup intrigues me because Donovan Clingan has the kind of interior presence that matters against Wembanyama, who was born to prevent Scoot Henderson from being the top pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. Speaking of Henderson, he needs to be good for Portland to have any kind of chance.
Katz: Avdija has become the NBA’s most relentless attacker of the basket. He drove to the basket 19.4 times a game during the regular season, tops in the NBA, according to Second Spectrum. And now, he faces the man who scares drivers away from the paint more than anyone. Will he, for the first time all season, think twice before jetting into the paint?
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Timberwolves
| Nuggets | Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 0% | 0% |
| 5 games | 12.1% | 0% |
| 6 games | 36.4% | 6% |
| 7 games | 39.4% | 6% |
| Total | 87.9% | 12.1% |
Clark: My enduring memory of Minnesota’s seven-game win over Denver in 2024 is Jamal Murray struggling to bring the ball up the floor against the Timberwolves’ defensive pressure. Murray is coming off his best regular season ever. I think he’ll have a good series.
Harper: The Nuggets rolled into the playoffs on a high but have some injury concerns. The Wolves limped into the playoffs with some injury concerns, but the Wolves really get up for Denver, and these two teams have a fun history. I have the Nuggets in seven (the cowards’ pick), but I’m not convinced they win.
Katz: This series has it all. Superstars in Nikola Jokić and Anthony Edwards; All-NBA performers in Murray, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle; aggressive defenders and brilliant ball-movers. Most importantly, it has history. This is the third time in four postseasons these two teams have met. They’ve split the previous two series. The last time they played, it went seven games. There aren’t many great rivalries in the NBA anymore, but this has a chance to become one.
No. 4 Lakers vs. No. 5 Rockets
| Lakers | Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 0% | 0% |
| 5 games | 0% | 30.3% |
| 6 games | 6% | 51.5% |
| 7 games | 6% | 6% |
| Total | 12.1% | 87.9% |
Clark: If ever there was a time for DeAndre Ayton to show he’s a cut above prime Clint Capela, it’s now.
Murray: If this were paper, then the Rockets should win this series quite easily, but they are thoroughly untrustworthy. The Lakers have home-court advantage and had enough time to prepare to play without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, and with LeBron James getting as many touches as he could want.
Harper: Even if Dončić or Reaves get to this series at some point, will they be healthy enough to swing it? How early do they have to come back to give the Lakers what they need? At the same time, as Law said above, Houston is not trustworthy at all.
West champion
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
| Thunder | 66.7% |
| Nuggets | 18.1% |
| Spurs | 15.2% |
Clark: The Thunder. The Nuggets were my preseason pick in the West, but their road to the finals, which would likely require them to beat the Timberwolves, Spurs and Thunder, looks brutal. OKC shouldn’t have to expend nearly as much energy.
Murray: I’m going with the Thunder, but similar to the East, there is a contending threat that Oklahoma City does not want to see in the conference finals. The difference between San Antonio’s rim protection and Denver’s rim protection is vast, and the Thunder need their biggest threat to get handled in the second round.
Harper: I’d love to get cute and pick Denver or San Antonio. I would have gone with Denver before the Jokić injury. He hasn’t been the same since getting back, even though he’s still been absurd. If Denver were fully healthy, I’d pick it, but OKC gets the nod; however, the Thunder need Jalen Williams to get back to his All-NBA form.
Katz: The Thunder. The Spurs are awesome, but they’re too young. The Nuggets are impressive, and maybe I’ll eat crow for doubting Jokić, but their bottom-10 defense is too much of a deterrent.
Biggest threat to OKC
(BetMGM title odds of +2000 or better entering Play-In Tournament)
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
| Spurs (+450) | 66.7% |
| Celtics (+550) | 18.2% |
| Nuggets (+1000) | 15.2% |
Clark: I think it’s still the Nuggets, who took the Thunder to seven games last year in the second round. The Nuggets’ defense wasn’t very good this season, but a lot of that was related to Aaron Gordon only playing 36 games. I worry about Gordon’s body holding up this postseason. If Denver can stay relatively healthy, I think Jokić, Murray and the rest of the gang can challenge Oklahoma City.
Murray: The Thunder lost 18 games this season. 22.2 percent of those losses were to a Spurs team that beat them in three states. The Spurs were the only West team that the Thunder couldn’t beat multiple times. Any talk of Thunder threats has to begin and end deep in the heart of Texas.
Harper: I know the Spurs were so fun against OKC and dominated it in the regular season, but I’m going with Denver. A chaotic Denver team took the Thunder to seven games last year. The Nuggets still have Gordon’s hamstring injuries to worry about, and you can add Peyton Watson to that, too. But this team is deeper and better than last year’s team. OKC has been injured enough to worry.
Katz: Boston. After the Celtics beat the Thunder at the end of March, there were OKC people who left the building thinking they just saw the team best fit to ruin their chance at a repeat. The Celtics can exploit one of the Thunder’s only weaknesses, their so-so production on the glass. Boston is one of the NBA’s best ball-control teams, which is especially important against the Thunder’s high-turnover defense. The Celtics can deploy multiple creators at once, and they take enough 3-pointers that, if they get hot four out of seven times, they could end their season with a victory.
NBA champion
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
| Thunder | 60.6% |
| Nuggets | 15.2% |
| Celtics | 12.1% |
| Spurs | 12.1% |
Clark: The NBA will have its first repeat champion since the Warriors went back-to-back in 2017 and 2018. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is, somehow, better than he was a year ago. Ajay Mitchell will have big moments during the postseason. Jared McCain’s TikTok dance will be the Thunder’s version of Red Auerbach lighting up a cigar.
Murray: I would pick the field against the Thunder if I were betting, but I don’t have those apps on my phone, and the Thunder have done what they needed to do to remain the favorites. They will need to be better this postseason than they were last year to repeat.
Harper: I am very on record for being anti-parity; it’s not what makes the NBA great. You need villains. You need dynasties. Most importantly, you need the toppling of those villains and dynasties. The Thunder are turning into a villainous dynasty, and we need that. Give me the Thunder to repeat.
Katz: The Thunder. They weren’t even healthy this season. Their All-NBA wing Williams missed more than half the season. Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein were out for long stretches. And they still finished as the obvious best team. They won it all last season. Now, they’re more experienced and deeper.
By The Athletic NBA Staff, via The Athletic