By Scott Phillips | The Athletic, 2026-05-31 16:33:33
过去十年来最受瞩目的NBA总决赛已准备就绪。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)率领的圣安东尼奥马刺将迎战状态火热的纽约尼克斯，这不仅带来了巨大的球星效应，也将联盟最顶级的豪门之一带入了2026年NBA总决赛的舞台。
圣安东尼奥马刺在强势突围西部并淘汰卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆后，已经提前开启了文班亚马时代的夺冠窗口；而纽约尼克斯凭借在东部季后赛中的统治级表现，也有望夺得他们50多年来的首个总冠军。
这是尼克斯自1999年因停摆而缩水的赛季以来首次重返总决赛，当时纽约在总决赛中负于了由二年级新星蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan)领衔的马刺，如今尼克斯球迷对总冠军的渴望已达到顶点。
自纽约上一次打进总决赛以来，西部球队在系列赛开始前通常更被看好。本赛季也不例外，马刺在总决赛赔率上明显压过纽约。在FanDuel上，马刺夺冠的赔率为-200，在DraftKings上为-205，在BetMGM上为-210。而尼克斯在DK和MGM的赔率为+170，在FD上为+168。这些赔率意味着圣安东尼奥马刺有大约三分之二的夺冠概率。
尽管纽约处于下风且在系列赛中没有主场优势，但鉴于他们此前在东部季后赛中横扫千军的势头，部分分析师依然认为尼克斯才是更难被击败的那支球队。
上周六，马刺在西部决赛抢七大战中客场击败雷霆，震惊了整个篮球界。
在系列赛大比分2-3落后、被推到悬崖边缘的情况下，马刺连赢两场生死战，自2014年以来首次杀入总决赛。在第六场比赛开始前，马刺夺得NBA总冠军的赔率仅为+550，而俄克拉荷马城雷霆则为-150。在马刺惊天逆转击败雷霆后，他们在总决赛对阵尼克斯时明显更被看好。
雷霆在整个赛季中都是夺得NBA总冠军的最大热门。由于雷霆一马当先，圣安东尼奥马刺的夺冠赔率也起伏不定。马刺的夺冠赔率在10月份曾高达+6600，在11月下旬则降至常规赛期间的相对低点+4500（赔率数值越低，夺冠概率越高）。
直到12月下旬，圣安东尼奥马刺才被真正视作总冠军的有力争夺者。圣诞大战中大胜雷霆，以及跨年夜险胜尼克斯，让马刺在迈入2026年之际，一跃成为仅次于雷霆的第二大夺冠热门。
尽管在季后赛开始前缺乏季后赛经验，但马刺证明了自己有能力在大场面中挺身而出。凭借文班亚马接管任何比赛的能力，他在系列赛开始前成为了夺得总决赛MVP（FMVP）的最大热门（在BetMGM上的赔率为-190，在DraftKings和FanDuel上为-185）。
处于下风的纽约尼克斯状态正盛
凭借一波11连胜，尼克斯自4月23日首轮对阵亚特兰大老鹰的第三场比赛以来还未尝败绩。在这波连胜期间，他们经常大比分击溃对手，场均净胜分高达23.7分。在尼克斯的11场胜利中，有10场是两位数的大胜。上一支在季后赛中取得至少11连胜的NBA球队是2017年的金州勇士，他们最终也成功捧杯。
在常规赛中，尼克斯对阵马刺取得了2胜1负的战绩，并且拥有能够与马刺抗衡的阵容配置。杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)在常规赛对阵马刺时显得游刃有余，他将成为圣安东尼奥马刺需要解决的一大难题。
此外，在总决赛开打前，尼克斯将拥有整整9天的休息时间，相比马刺拥有明显的体能优势。由于马刺刚刚经历了与雷霆的恶战并完成荡气回肠的逆转，他们在主场迎来第一场比赛前只有3天的休息时间。尼克斯也成为了NBA历史上首支在季后赛中连续面对三支在上一轮打满抢七系列赛的球队。
尽管尼克斯在季后赛表现强势且拥有明显的休息优势，但马刺更被看好也并不令人意外。根据Sports Odds History的数据，自纽约1999年上一次进入总决赛以来，西部球队在过去27届NBA总决赛中有24次被视作夺冠热门。
尽管在过去四分之一个世纪里，东西部之间存在着明显的实力差距，但在这一时期的总决赛中，被看好的一方战绩仅为19胜7负——而全部7次下克上的夺冠奇迹均由东部球队创造。
甚至在西部决赛结束之前，多位著名篮球分析师就坚信纽约尼克斯才是夺冠的最大热门。
杰夫·范甘迪 (Jeff Van Gundy)在接受《The Athletic》记者伊恩·奥康纳 (Ian O’Connor)采访时表示，从尼克斯目前展现出的统治力来看，他认为尼克斯更具冠军相。雷吉·米勒 (Reggie Miller)在NBC转播马刺与雷霆的系列赛时也提到，尼克斯同样是他心目中的夺冠热门。
无论结果如何，近年来的NBA总决赛中，凡是出现与2026年类似赔率的对决，都诞生了经典的战役。在2015年和2016年，金州勇士连续两年以-220的赔率被看好，而克利夫兰骑士的赔率分别为+180和+190。这两次令人难忘的系列赛最终在2016年以极具传奇色彩的抢七大战画下句点。
2013年总决赛同样见证了迈阿密热火（-220）在赔率上压过马刺（+180），由此拉开了两队连续两年在总决赛交手的序幕，并最终以马刺在2014年夺得队史最近一次总冠军而告终。
马刺与尼克斯的总决赛第一场将于周三在圣安东尼奥开打。目前马刺让4.5分。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA Finals odds: Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knicks' win streak
2026 NBA Finals odds: Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knicks’ win streak
The stage is set for one of the most anticipated NBA Finals of the decade. Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs facing the red-hot New York Knicks brings massive star power and one of the league’s marquee franchises into the 2026 NBA Finals.
While San Antonio is ahead of schedule in its Wembanyama championship window after rolling through the Western Conference and eliminating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, New York’s dominant postseason run through the East has the Knicks in position to win their first title in over 50 years.
Knicks fans are clamoring for a title with the franchise’s first Finals appearance since the lockout-shortened 1999 season, when New York lost to San Antonio during Tim Duncan’s second season.
Since New York’s last appearance, the Western Conference has usually produced the favorite entering the series. This season is another example of that, with the Spurs entering the finals as betting favorites over New York. The Spurs are -200 on FanDuel, -205 on DraftKings and -210 on BetMGM to win the Finals. The Knicks are +170 on DK and MGM and +168 on FD. Those odds imply San Antonio has a roughly two-thirds chance of winning the title.
Although New York is the underdog playing the road schedule during the series, some analysts still believe the Knicks are the team to beat with the way New York blitzed the Eastern Conference during the playoffs.
The Spurs shocked the basketball world with the Game 7 road victory over the Thunder in the Western Conference finals on Saturday.
With San Antonio on the ropes down 3-2 in the series against the Thunder, the Spurs won back-to-back elimination games to reach the Finals for the first time since 2014. Entering Game 6, the Spurs had +550 odds to win the NBA title while Oklahoma City was -150. After San Antonio’s stunning series win over the Thunder, the Spurs are sizable favorites to beat the Knicks in the Finals.
Oklahoma City was the favorite to win the NBA Finals for the entire season. Since the Thunder were the clear frontrunners, San Antonio’s title odds fluctuated. The Spurs were as low as +6600 odds in October and saw a regular-season low of +4500 odds in late November.
San Antonio wasn’t taken seriously as a true title contender until late December. A convincing win over the Thunder on Christmas and a tight victory over the Knicks on New Year’s Eve pushed the Spurs into the clear No. 2 title favorite as the calendar turned to 2026.
Despite lacking playoff experience entering the postseason, San Antonio is capable of stepping up to the occasion. With Wembanyama’s ability to take over any game, he’s the favorite (-190 on BetMGM, -185 on DraftKings and FanDuel) to win Finals MVP entering the series.
Underdog New York comes in red hot
Riding an 11-game winning streak, the Knicks haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round against Atlanta on April 23. They have routinely blown out opponents with an average margin of 23.7 points per game during the streak. Ten of the 11 Knicks wins were by double digits. The last NBA team to win at least 11 straight postseason games, Golden State in 2017, went on to win the championship.
The Knicks took two out of three games from the Spurs during the regular season and have the personnel to match up against San Antonio. Jalen Brunson looked comfortable against the Spurs during the regular season and presents a major obstacle for San Antonio.
New York will also have a clear rest advantage over the Spurs with a nine-day lay-off by the time the NBA Finals start. With San Antonio overcoming Oklahoma City for an emotional comeback series victory, the Spurs only get three days off before hosting Game 1. New York is also the first team in NBA history to play three teams that were pushed to seven games in the previous series.
Even with New York’s postseason dominance and clear rest advantage, it should come as no surprise that San Antonio is favored against the Knicks. Since New York’s last finals appearance in 1999, the West has now been favored in 24 out of the last 27 NBA Finals, according to Sports Odds History.
Although there’s a clear disparity between the two conferences over the last quarter century, favorites are only 19-7 in the NBA Finals during that span — with all seven underdog winners coming from the Eastern Conference.
Multiple prominent basketball analysts still believe New York is the favorite to win the championship — even before the Western Conference finals were completed.
Jeff Van Gundy told The Athletic’s Ian O’Connor that he believes the Knicks are the favorites based on their current dominant form. Reggie Miller also mentioned during NBC’s broadcast of the Spurs and Thunder series that the Knicks were his favorites as well.
Regardless of outcome, recent NBA Finals with similar odds to 2026 produced some classics. In 2015 and 2016, the Golden State Warriors were -220 favorites both years over the Cleveland Cavaliers (+180 and +190, respectively) in two memorable series that culminated in 2016’s iconic finish.
The 2013 Finals also saw the Miami Heat (-220) as similar favorites over the Spurs (+180) to start another two-year Finals rivalry that resulted in San Antonio’s last title in 2014.
Game 1 of Spurs vs. Knicks is Wednesday in San Antonio. The Spurs are favored by 4.5 points.
By Scott Phillips, via The Athletic