By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-06-02 09:00:36
The Athletic 将为您带来尼克斯对阵马刺在2026年NBA总决赛第一场的实时报道。
一支来自纽约的球队，真的有可能被低估吗？
鉴于媒体舆论场中任何与纽约沾边的事物都拥有巨大的流量引力，我本以为这是不可能的事，但今年的纽约尼克斯队却让我产生了怀疑。不知何故，在整个赛季几乎毫无热度的情况下，尼克斯如今距离总冠军仅差四场胜利。甚至在他们一路杀入NBA总决赛的过程中，尽管外界耗费了大量精力去讨论这座城市的兴奋劲儿以及球队无数的明星拥趸，但令人惊讶的是，极少有焦点真正转移到这群篮球运动员身上。
听着，我们在过去六周里了解到的关于胖乔 (Fat Joe) 的信息，甚至比关于乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 的还要多。杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 虽是全明星球员，但在全美关注度上依然有些遇冷，尤其是作为纽约的运动员。尼克斯的第三号球星OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 正处于一段极其出色的季后赛征程中，然而一旦离开麦迪逊广场花园，他实际上依然是那个“无名氏阿奴诺比”（OG Anonymous）。
事实上，整个总决赛都是这种现象的佐证：它基本上被宣传为维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 对决纽约尼克斯。
这对尼克斯的建队方式来说是极大的褒奖。这里没有像1985年帕特里克·尤因 (Patrick Ewing) 那样的救世主状元签，也没有去复制卡梅隆·安东尼 (Carmelo Anthony) 那种名气极大但略被高估的交易目标。相反，这是一次通过精明交易、优秀的（好吧，是极棒的）自由球员签约以及前瞻性薪金空间策略所实现的持续建设。在经历了三十年对各种闪光球星（更不用说一些暗淡无光的，比如呼叫安德里亚·巴尼亚尼 (Andrea Bargnani) 先生）的盲目追逐之后，在莱昂·罗斯 (Leon Rose) 治下的尼克斯已经成为了战略耐心与适时果断相结合的典范。尝尝这个吧，迈赛·乌杰里 (Masai Ujiri)！*
*（懂的都懂。）
在五年多的时间里，纽约悄无声息地崛起为竞争者。在过去的两年里，在几乎没有人认为他们是真正的夺冠威胁时，这个“沙梅特-甜茶时代 (Shamet-Chalamet Era)”的尼克斯却出人意料地赢下了22场季后赛和5轮系列赛。可以说，他们距离连续两次闯入NBA总决赛，只差亚伦·内史密斯 (Aaron Nesmith) 的一次手感发烫和泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的一次奇迹颠球。
当然，这是有原因的：我们总是将总冠军与伟大的球员等同起来。不是优秀的球员，而是伟大的球员。从历史上看，没有联盟前两三名顶尖球星坐镇的球队曾多次接近终点，但最终登顶的过程却极其艰难。纽约的建队思路更倾向于“集结一群优秀球员”的模式，而非围绕单一持球大核心超级巨星的打法。
这种“优秀球员扎堆”的阵容构建方式曾多次令人扼腕地与冠军失之交臂（去年的印第安纳、2002年的萨克拉门托、2000年的波特兰等等），但自1980年以来，唯一真正的成功案例只有2004年的底特律、2014年的圣安东尼奥，以及有人可能会争辩的2024年的波士顿。（即使是那支圣安东尼奥马刺，从职业生涯来看拥有两位极其伟大的球员，但在2014年他们都不是那种绝对的超级大核心：科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 处于职业生涯的起点，而蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 则已接近终点。）
自1980年以来的每一个其他冠军，或多或少都可以用一个球员来代表，从迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 的公牛，到谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的雷霆。是的，这有些不公且过于简化，但它反映了这样一个现实：在绝大多数情况下，一个统治级的核心球员是夺冠不可或缺的要素。
毫无疑问，马刺拥有文班亚马这一要素。而尼克斯，毫无疑问，并没有。布伦森和唐斯都非常优秀，但确实没有人认为他们达到了文班、SGA、尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 或卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 的水平。
马刺本赛季也比尼克斯多赢了九场比赛，净胜分表现更好，并且在文班亚马出场超过20分钟的过去44场比赛中，取得了令人咋舌的39胜5负。圣安东尼奥在晋级之路上，击败了一支拥有历史第八佳净胜分的球队，甚至是在德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 这两位后场核心遭遇伤病的情况下做到的。
从上到下，圣安东尼奥拥有一套极其出色的阵容，注定将在未来十年里向总冠军发起冲击。与此同时，尼克斯只是一个拿到53胜的3号种子，勉强跨过了我设定的历史门槛（分区前三种子且至少拿到52胜），从而具备了准争冠球队的资格。
那么在纸面上，你可能会得出结论，这是1999年马刺对阵尼克斯总决赛的重演，当时圣安东尼奥用五场比赛解决了战斗，开启了蒂姆·邓肯的王朝。
然而……
正如我一周前所写的那样，在他们于东部决赛横扫克利夫兰时，尼克斯在过去的11场比赛中仿佛得到了上帝的眷顾。他们不仅创造了NBA历史上任意连续11场比赛（无论是季后赛还是常规赛）的最佳净胜分纪录，而且其间还包含了两个历史最佳的10场阶段。
即使考虑到对手的实力，以及在爆发前曾两次在首轮输给亚特兰大，纽约的季后赛之旅依然令人印象深刻。正如NBA官网的约翰·舒曼 (John Schuhmann) 所指出的，尼克斯在攻防两端超出对手平均水平的幅度，比马刺在前三轮的表现还要大。
尼克斯进攻效率：每百回合比对手常规赛防守失分多出 +9.6 分。
尼克斯防守效率：每百回合比对手常规赛场均得分限制 -12.3 分。
马刺进攻效率：+5.0
马刺防守效率：-11.3
当然，即便如此，这也需要打上几个问号。尼克斯在这次进攻狂潮中一直拥有投篮手气的加持，尤其是在对阵克利夫兰时，展现出了如有神助的三分防守。尼克斯也是历史上第一支连续三次遇到上一轮打满七场对手的球队，这让他们拥有巨大的休息优势。同时，他们也是第一支在晋级总决赛的过程中，从未参与过包含前两号种子系列赛的球队。（其他球队曾有过未面对前两号种子便打进总决赛的先例，但他们自己本身就是前两号种子。）
当然，马刺自身的季后赛征程也相当具有统治力，特别是如果你扣除维克托·文班亚马提前退场的两场比赛（一场是对阵波特兰时受伤，另一场是对阵明尼苏达时被驱逐）以及他未出战的一场。当文班亚马在场时，马刺在前两轮的净效率（+21.9）与尼克斯在布伦森在场时（+22.2）不相上下，只不过这反映的是一个尼克斯全员打疯了，而马刺只是随便……打打的阶段。
所以，让我们把这设定为初始条件：在纸面上，圣安东尼奥是更好的那支球队。
如果让尼克斯和马刺随机与NBA其他28支球队进行系列赛，马刺赢下的场次很可能比尼克斯多。此外，马刺刚刚淘汰了强大的雷霆队，而雷霆在常规赛的两次交手中都压制了尼克斯，且如果再次相遇，结果可能依然如此。
然而，篮球比赛并不能套用传递律。在这项极其看重对位克制的运动中，A队击败B队，B队击败C队，并不一定意味着A队就能击败C队。
我认为有一些非常具体的因素，正在转化为纽约对阵圣安东尼奥时的优势，而这些因素此前恰恰是雷霆的劣势。
首先也是最显著的一点，唐斯能投篮。事实上，他可能是有史以来投篮最好的大个子。这一点对任何对手都很重要，但面对一个身高7英尺4英寸的人类防空导弹防御系统，天呐，这简直太关键了。
看看上一轮就知道了。明显的征兆在分区决赛刚刚开始两分钟时就显现出来，当时马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 换下了他的首发中锋以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)，因为后者无法投三分，无法将文班亚马引离篮下。从那时起，他在轮换阵容上玩起了“抢椅子”游戏，却始终未能找到一套能够保持持续优势的五人组合。
戴格诺特意识到了这一点：面对文班，你必须打“五外”（five-out）战术，或者必须让他防守的球员去打挡拆，把文班拉入防守轮转（但这并不理想）。别无选择。如果只是让一个中锋在底线区（dunker spot）游荡，那就是自寻死路，因为维克托会让整个禁区变成禁飞区。
唐斯让尼克斯能够打“五外”战术，尤其是结合我稍后会提到的另一个调整。
其次，尼克斯拥有一个真正的强力大前锋。尽管雷霆在构建阵容方面做了很多出色的工作，但他们从未填补的一个空白，就是一个像阿奴诺比这样体型强壮、具备首发实力的大前锋（他们尝试过：看看阿列克谢·波库舍夫斯基 (Aleksej Pokuševski)、乌斯曼·吉昂 (Ousmane Dieng) 以及戈登·海沃德 (Gordon Hayward) 的惨痛尝试就知道了）。
这让尼克斯在面对马刺体型较小的侧翼时拥有身材优势（朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)——在圣约翰大学打了三年球的他对麦迪逊广场花园绝不陌生——很可能会承担防守任务），同时也给他们提供了一个可行的第二选择，以便在唐斯不可避免地陷入犯规麻烦时去限制文班亚马。
马刺对阵雷霆时的这两项优势在常规赛中就已经显露无遗，当时圣安东尼奥在五次交锋中赢下了四次。总的来说，雷霆对阵NBA其他球队的战绩是71胜14负，而对阵马刺则是4胜8负。文班就是他们的氪金。
然而，尼克斯今年对阵马刺的经历却大不相同。纽约在12月的季中锦标赛（NBA Cup）决赛中击败了圣安东尼奥，在跨年夜以132-134惜败于圣安东尼奥，随后在3月初以114-89大胜马刺——这也是马刺本赛季惨败最严重的一场比赛。
在这轮常规赛交锋中，有两点特别引人注目。首先，尽管文班亚马表现神勇，但尼克斯在进攻端依然予取予求。事实上，简直是饕餮盛宴。他们在三场比赛中的进攻效率分别为128、126和117；前两个数据可以轻松领跑全联盟，第三个也能排进前十。纽约的“五外”空间给马刺制造了明显的麻烦，尼克斯在最后两次交手中疯狂出手了100次三分球。
原因之一是，尽管布伦森和SGA的打法有相似之处，但当对手协防过大时，尼克斯有更多的方法来惩罚防守。每当SGA试图单打时，文班亚马就会站在强侧，这让雷霆的半场进攻陷入停滞，而俄克拉荷马城在弱侧又缺乏足够的火力来惩罚这种防守策略。
在这方面，尼克斯有两个有利因素。首先，虽然我不想批评得太苛刻，但空切和无球跑动等战术依然非常重要。与俄克拉荷马城面对马刺防守时无球人员只站在原地的反应不同，尼克斯在无球端的活动通常要频繁得多。他们还拥有像唐斯和阿奴诺比这样的球员，比起雷霆在杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 受伤、切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 躲在篮架后面时，他们能吸引更多的防守注意力。
其次，尼克斯在对阵亚特兰大的第四场比赛中凭空创造了一套完整的副攻战术，由唐斯担任轴心，其他球员进行无球空切。如果文班亚马在三分线外防守唐斯，这可以为阿奴诺比或米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)（他很可能会面对体型小得多的德阿隆·福克斯的防守）创造轻松在禁区接球的机会，而不用担心文班在身边封盖投篮——前提是唐斯不需要扔出一个超高弧线的“小便球”（eephus pitch）来越过文班那遮天蔽日的双臂完成传球。
当然，这建立在文班亚马防守唐斯的假设之上。这轮系列赛另一个引人入胜的副线剧情是，当马刺让文班去防守哈特并放他投篮时会发生什么。在对阵马刺的三场比赛中，当哈特在场时，尼克斯的净胜分为+3，而当他不在场时，净胜分高达+31。在他缺席的那场比赛中（尼克斯在圣安东尼奥以两分惜败），纽约出手了52次三分球。即使在尼克斯轻松获胜的那场比赛中，哈特出场29分33秒，三分球6投1中，正负值为0。而尼克斯在他下场休息的时间里赢了25分。是的，这部分是因为文班在那些时间里大多也不在场，但依然很说明问题。
兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 能否帮助杰伦·布伦森和尼克斯在对阵马刺时将进攻提升到新的高度？(Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
我之前指出过这一点，但无论是在季后赛还是常规赛，尼克斯在沙梅特上场的时间里表现都要比哈特在场时好得多。他的投射将赋予尼克斯极具杀伤力的“五外”阵容，让文班亚马无法轻松在内线协防。如果沙梅特在比赛决胜阶段留在场上，我一点也不会感到惊讶。到系列赛结束时，他甚至可能会进入首发名单。
如果在写了2000字之后，我听起来有些动摇，那是因为我确实在动摇。这轮系列赛势均力敌，很可能取决于一些细节，比如三分球的起伏、压哨球的运气，或者……伤病。事实上，它可能焦灼到连替补中锋的伤病都能左右局势的程度。
听着，米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 确实有他的弱点，但在每晚对阵替补内线的15分钟里，他绝对是个大麻烦。在季中锦标赛击败马刺的比赛中，他在18分钟内抢下了令人难以置信的10个前场篮板。罗宾逊的身材也足够高大去防守文班亚马，而且他作为无球篮板手的威慑力足够强，以至于他可能会成为上述关于中锋对位文班亚马规律的特例。
罗宾逊变得加倍重要，因为唐斯在前往麦迪逊广场花园的路上，光是穿过第八大道可能就会领到两次犯规，更不用说去对付文班了。唐斯今年有17场比赛领到5次（10场）或6次犯规（7场），其中包括跨年夜对阵马刺的那场比赛，当时他在33分钟内便犯满离场。
罗宾逊遭遇了小拇指骨折，需要接受手术，这可能会限制他的出场时间和场上效率。（至少这不会影响他的罚球命中率……额，对吧？）
他的伤病也引出了我不太敢选择纽约的另一个原因：在这两支球队的三次交锋中，尼克斯在替补时间里占据了统治地位。简直是彻底打爆。
我有两个理由认为，即使罗宾逊出战，这在总决赛中可能也不会产生那么大的影响。首先，总决赛的特点是替补球员根本没有太多的出场时间，即使有，也是在对抗对方的首发阵容。泰勒·科勒克 (Tyler Kolek) 比林迪·沃特斯二世 (Lindy Waters II) 更好可能并不重要，因为他们两个都不会怎么上场。即使是像麦克·麦克布莱德 (Miles McBride) 和乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 这样的球员，可能也只有短暂的轮换时间。
其次是哈珀。我的天呐。这位马刺最信赖的替补后卫在对阵雷霆的最后两场比赛中表现极其出色，只有他在第一场比赛中的受伤，才短暂阻碍了他在赛季收官阶段如火箭般蹿升的球星之路。他太优秀了，以至于挤占了本该属于联盟最佳第六人凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 的出场时间。一个20岁的菜鸟，在季后赛中拥有18.6的效率值（PER）和+3.6的BPM，这确实令人胆寒。
所以，最终的预测已经装入信封。在过去的整整三天里，我一直在和自己反复争论（而且总是说服不了自己），但结论就是：尼克斯是马刺强劲的对手，如果他们夺冠，我一点也不会感到惊讶。事实上，我认为拉斯维加斯的赔率严重低估了他们的胜算，目前赔率暗示圣安东尼奥有67%的胜率。
我认为这个数字更接近57%，甚至更低。但如果你拥有银河系级别的超能力，能将这轮系列赛模拟重放100次，我确实认为马刺会赢下其中的大多数。如果是这样，那将是“优秀球员扎堆”建队模式的又一次痛苦、微弱的失利。
**预测：**马刺抢七胜出。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The Knicks can win the NBA Finals, but I still like the Spurs ... barely
The Knicks can win the NBA Finals, but I still like the Spurs … barely
The Athletic has live coverage of Knicks vs. Spurs in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals.
Is it possible for a team from New York to be underrated?
I would have thought this impossible, given the sheer gravitational pull of virtually anything New York-adjacent in the media landscape, but this year’s Knicks have me wondering. Somehow, the Knicks are four wins from the title after having just about zero hype all season. Even during this run to the NBA Finals, while much energy has been expended talking about the excitement in the city and amongst the team’s myriad celebrity fans, remarkably little focus has shifted to the actual basketball players.
Look, we’ve learned more about Fat Joe in the last six weeks than we have about Josh Hart. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are All-Stars but still lag on the national attention meter, especially for New York athletes. The Knicks’ third-best player, OG Anunoby, is in the midst of an awesome playoff run and yet still effectively remains OG Anonymous once he leaves Madison Square Garden.
These entire finals, in fact, are a tell on that phenomenon: It’s basically being marketed as Victor Wembanyama vs. The New York Knicks.
This is a tremendous compliment to the way the Knicks have been built. There was no savior lottery pick like Patrick Ewing in 1985, no mildly-overrated-but-very-famous trade target to replicate Carmelo Anthony. Instead, it’s been a sustained build of smart trades, good (OK, awesome) free-agent signings, and forward-thinking cap strategy. After three decades of chasing every shiny object, not to mention a few dull ones (paging Mr. Bargnani), the Knicks under Leon Rose have been a model of strategic patience mixed with timely impatience. Take that Masai Ujiri!*
(*If you know, you know.)
Over half a decade, New York snuck up on everyone as a contender. And out of the blue in a two-year span, where few perceived them as a true threat to win the title, the Shamet-Chalamet Era Knicks have won 22 playoff games and five playoff series. They’re arguably one Aaron Nesmith heater and Tyrese Haliburton miracle bounce away from consecutive NBA Finals trips.
There’s a reason for that, of course: We equate champions with great players. Not good players, great ones. Historically, teams without one of the two or three very best players in the league have come close several times, but have had an extremely difficult time climbing the mountain at the end. New York’s team is the “get a bunch of good players” model more than one of heliocentric superstardom.
The “bunch-of-good-players” roster build has come achingly close many times (Indiana last year, Sacramento in 2002, Portland in 2000, and so on), but the only true successes since 1980 are Detroit in 2004, San Antonio in 2014 and, one could argue, Boston in 2024. (Even that San Antonio squad had two awesomely great players, in terms of their career, but neither was That Dude in 2014: Kawhi Leonard was near the beginning of his journey, and Tim Duncan was near the end.)
Every other champion since 1980 can be described by one player, more or less, from the Michael Jordan Bulls to the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder. Yes, this is unfair and reductive, but it reflects the reality that a single dominant performer has been the necessary ingredient for championships much more often than not.
The Spurs, unquestionably, have that ingredient in Wembanyama. The Knicks, unquestionably, do not. Brunson and Towns are very good, but literally nobody thinks they’re at the Wemby/SGA/Nikola Jokić/Luka Dončić level.
The Spurs also won nine more games than the Knicks this season, had a better scoring margin, and are a jaw-dropping 39-5 in the last 44 games in which Wembanyama has played more than 20 minutes. San Antonio outlasted a team with the eighth-best scoring margin of all time to get here, even with injuries to De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, two key backcourt players.
Top to bottom, San Antonio has an awesome roster poised to challenge for titles for the next decade. The Knicks, meanwhile, are a No. 3 seed with 53 wins, one that barely nosed over my historical hurdle (a top-three seed and at least 52 wins) for quasi-legit championship contention.
On paper, then, you might conclude this is a repeat of the Spurs-Knicks Finals in 1999 that San Antonio won in five games to kick-start the Tim Duncan dynasty.
And yet …
As I wrote a week ago as they were finishing off a sweep of Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals, the Knicks have seemingly touched God over the last 11 games, not only sporting the best scoring margin in NBA history for an 11-outing stretch — playoffs or regular season — but actually bookending it with the two best 10-game stretches.
Even allowing for the opposition, and for twice losing in the first round to Atlanta before blasting off, New York’s playoff run has been impressive. As NBA.com’s John Schuhmann noted, the Knicks’ offense and defense have beaten their opponents’ averages by a greater margin than San Antonio’s did in the first three rounds.
Knicks’ offense: +9.6 per 100 vs. what their opponents allowed in the regular season.
Knicks’ defense: -12.3 vs. what their opponents scored in the regular season.
Spurs’ offense: +5.0
Spurs’ defense: -11.3
— John Schuhmann (@ johnschuhmann.bsky.social) May 31, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Even that part comes with a few asterisks, of course. The Knicks have had shooting luck in their favor throughout this run on offense and, particularly against Cleveland, with Jedi 3-point defense. The Knicks are also the first team in history to get an opponent who went seven games the previous round three straight times, giving them a huge rest edge, and the first team to make the NBA Finals without ever being in a series involving a top-two seed. (Other teams got to the finals without facing a top-2 seed, but they were themselves top two seeds.)
Of course, San Antonio’s own playoff run has been pretty dominant, especially if you subtract the two games Victor Wembanyama left early (because of an injury against Portland and ejection against Minnesota) and the one he didn’t play. With Wembanyama on the court, San Antonio’s net rating in the first two rounds (plus-21.9) was the same as New York’s with Brunson (plus-22.2), except this reflects a timeframe where the Knicks were playing out of their minds and the Spurs were just sort of … playing.
So, let’s set that as the initial conditions: On paper, San Antonio is the better team.
If you had the Knicks and Spurs randomly play a series of games against the other 28 NBA teams, the Spurs would likely win more of them than the Knicks would. The Spurs also just dismissed a mighty Thunder team that owned the Knicks in two regular-season meetings and likely would have done so again.
However, basketball isn’t played by the transitive property. In a matchup-dependent sport, Team A beating Team B and Team B beating Team C does not necessarily equal Team A beating Team C.
There are some very specific factors that I think are playing to New York’s advantage against San Antonio, and played to the Thunder’s disadvantage.
First and most notably, Towns can shoot. Actually, he might be the best-shooting big man ever. This matters against every opponent, but against a 7-foot-4 human missile defense system, oh my goodness does it matter.
Just look at the last round. The tell that San Antonio was a matchup problem for the Thunder came two minutes into the conference finals when Mark Daigneault subbed out his starting center, Isaiah Hartenstein, because he couldn’t shoot 3s and draw Wembanyama away from the hoop. He went musical chairs on his rotation from that point forward, without ever quite landing on a quintet that had a sustainable advantage.
Here’s the thing that Daigneault realized: You must play five-out against Wemby, or you must have his man setting ball screens and involve Wemby in the play (not ideal). No choice. Just asking a center to hang out in the dunker spot is death, because Victor is going to make the entire paint a no-fly zone.
Towns lets the Knicks play five-out, especially with one other tweak I’ll note later.
Second, the Knicks have a real power forward. For all the great stuff the Thunder did in building their roster, the one area they never filled was a big, starting-caliber forward like Anunoby (they tried: witness Aleksej Pokuševski, Ousmane Dieng and the Gordon Hayward Experience).
That allows the Knicks to have a size advantage against the Spurs’ smaller wings (Julian Champagnie — no stranger to MSG after playing three years at St. John’s — likely gets the assignment), and also gives them a viable second option to guard Wembanyama when Towns inevitably gets into foul trouble.
Those two advantages the Spurs had over the Thunder were baked into the cards in the regular season, when San Antonio won four of the five matchups. In total, the Thunder went 71-14 against the rest of the NBA and 4-8 against the Spurs. Wemby was their kryptonite.
The Knicks, however, had a much different experience against the Spurs this year. New York beat San Antonio in the NBA Cup final in December, narrowly lost at San Antonio 134-132 on New Year’s Eve and then pasted the Spurs 114-89 in early March — San Antonio’s worst loss of the season.
Two things in particular stand out about the season series. First, despite Wembanyama’s awesomeness, the Knicks were able to eat on offense. Deliciously, actually. Their offensive ratings in the three games were 128, 126 and 117; the first two totals would have comfortably led the league, and the third would have ranked in the top 10. New York’s five-out spacing was a clear problem as the Knicks took 100 3s over the final two meetings.
One reason is that, despite the similarities in the play styles between Brunson and SGA, the Knicks have a lot more ways to hurt defenses that send too much help. The Thunder’s half-court offense was stymied by Wembanyama standing on the strong side any time SGA tried to iso, and Oklahoma City didn’t have enough juice away from the play to burn it.
The Knicks have two things in their favor on this front. First, and I hate to be too critical, but cutting and moving and stuff still matters. As opposed to Oklahoma City’s off-ball reaction to San Antonio’s defense, which was to just stand there, the Knicks typically have a lot more activity going on away from the play. They also have players such as Towns and Anunoby who demand more attention than the Thunder’s did with Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell injured and Chet Holmgren hiding behind the stanchion.
Second, the Knicks created an entire secondary offense out of thin air in Game 4 of the Atlanta series, with Towns operating as a fulcrum while the other players cut off the ball. If Wembanyama is guarding Towns at the 3-point line, this could provide an easy way to get paint catches for the likes of Anunoby or Mikal Bridges (who will likely have the much smaller De’Aaron Fox guarding him) without Wemby around to swat the resulting shot — at least if Towns doesn’t need to throw an eephus pitch to get a pass by Wemby’s arms.
Of course, that assumes Wembanyama guards Towns. The other fascinating sub-plot of his series is what happens when the Spurs put Wemby on Josh Hart and dare him to shoot. The Knicks were plus-3 with Hart on the floor in the three games against the Spurs and plus-31 with him off. In the game he missed, a two-point loss in San Antonio, New York launched 52 3-pointers. Even in the game the Knicks won easily, Hart played 29:33, shot 1 of 6 from 3 and had a plus/minus of 0. New York won his off-court minutes by 25. Yes, partly that’s because Wemby didn’t play most of those same minutes, but still.
Can Landry Shamet help Jalen Brunson and the Knicks unlock another level on offense against the Spurs? (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
I’ve pointed this out before, but the Knicks have been dramatically better in Landry Shamet’s minutes than Hart’s, both in the playoffs and the regular season, and his shooting would give the Knicks a truly devastating five-out look with no easy outs for Wembanyama to hover in the paint. I won’t be surprised at all if Shamet is finishing games. By the end of the series, he might even be starting them.
If it sounds like I’m waffling after 2,000 words, it’s because I am. This series is close enough that it is likely to hinge on small things, like 3-point variance or a kind bounce at the buzzer or … injuries. In fact, it might be close enough for an injury to a backup center to swing things.
Look, Mitchell Robinson has his weaknesses, but for 15 minutes a night against second-line bigs, he is a problem. He grabbed a staggering 10 offensive boards in 18 minutes in the NBA Cup win over the Spurs. Robinson is also big enough to guard Wembanyama, and his presence as an off-ball rebounder is fearsome enough that he might be an exception to the rule above about centers playing against Wembanyama.
Robinson becomes doubly important because Towns will pick up two fouls just crossing Eighth Avenue on his way to MSG, let alone dealing with Wemby. Towns had 17 games this year with either five (10) or six fouls (seven), including the New Year’s Eve game against the Spurs when he fouled out in 33 minutes.
Robinson has a broken pinkie that required surgery and may limit both his availability and his effectiveness. (At least it can’t hurt his free-throw shooting … um, right?)
His injury dovetails into the other reason I’m a bit squeamish about picking New York: The Knicks dominated the bench minutes in the three meetings between these two teams. Absolutely crushed them.
I have two reasons to think that might not be as impactful in the NBA Finals, even if Robinson plays. First, the thing about finals games is that the bench guys just don’t get that much run, or, if they do, it’s against the other teams’ starters. That Tyler Kolek is better than Lindy Waters II is unlikely to matter; neither of them are playing. Even guys such as Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson are likely to see brief shifts.
Second, Harper. My goodness. The Spurs’ go-to backup guard was awesome in the final two games against the Thunder, and only his injury in Game 1 briefly stalled out what has been a rocket ship to stardom in the closing stretch of the season. He’s so good that he’s soaking up minutes that would go to the league’s Sixth Man Award winner, Keldon Johnson. A 20-year-old rookie with an 18.6 PER and plus-3.6 BPM in the playoffs is scary stuff indeed.
So, the envelope is in. I’ve gone back and forth arguing with myself (and losing) over this the last three days, but here it is: The Knicks are a worthy adversary for the Spurs, and I will not be at all shocked if they win. I think the Vegas line badly understates their chances, actually, with implied odds of a 67 percent chance of San Antonio winning.
I think that number is more like 57 percent. Or less. But if you had galactic superpowers to play and replay this series 100 times, I do think the Spurs win the majority of them. If so, it’s another painful, narrow defeat for the “bunch of good players” model.
Prediction: Spurs in seven.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic