By Zach Kram, 2026-05-04 11:18:00
2025-26赛季NBA季后赛的首轮充满了离奇且意想不到的转折。
两支球队——明尼苏达森林狼队 (Minnesota Timberwolves) 和洛杉矶湖人队 (Los Angeles Lakers) ——在当家得分手受伤的情况下依然成功晋级。另外两支球队——费城76人队 (Philadelphia 76ers) 和底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons) ——则在1-3落后的绝境下完成了大逆转。多伦多猛龙队 (Toronto Raptors) 延缓了被克利夫兰骑士队 (Cleveland Cavaliers) 淘汰的命运，这要归功于第六场比赛中那个绝杀三分球：球在篮筐上高高弹起，最终在全场注视下稳稳落入网窝。
联盟的赛程安排在首轮的混乱之后几乎没有给球队留下喘息和修整的时间。在周末经历了三场抢七大战后，第二轮比赛将于周一晚上在麦迪逊广场花园拉开帷幕（东部时间晚上8点，Prime Video），届时纽约尼克斯队 (New York Knicks) 将与76人队重燃宿敌之战。
但在全身心投入第二轮之前，仍值得花点时间反思这些混乱局势带来的启示。让我们来探讨关于首轮离奇剧情的10个要点，以及它们将如何影响接下来的季后赛和即将到来的休赛期。
1. 替补阵容至关重要
NBA的传统观念认为，随着球星出场时间增加和轮换缩减，球队轮换阵容的深度在季后赛中变得不再那么重要。这种观点确实有一定道理。
但替补球员依然关键——考虑到季后赛中伤病的频发，这些替补变得更加重要，他们无论是作为第六人改变战局，还是在紧急顶替首发时，都能左右比赛。
森林狼队在三年内第二次淘汰了丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets)，这在很大程度上归功于他们的替补球员。在安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 左膝过度伸展以及丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 右侧跟腱撕裂后，替补们挺身而出。阿约·多松姆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 在森林狼队第四场胜利中替补出场砍下43分。而另一名森林狼后卫小泰伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.) 在前三场比赛中甚至没有上场，却在职业生涯首次季后赛首发中砍下24分，帮助球队赢下第六场关键战。
对于成功克服了卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 缺阵影响并击败休斯顿的洛杉矶湖人队来说，卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard) 是替补席上的定海神针。他在湖人队的前两场胜利中合力砍下50分，连续两次刷新个人季后赛得分新高。尽管肯纳德在系列赛后期表现有所下滑，但他火热的开局帮助湖人队在里夫斯回归并将其挤回替补席之前取得了领先优势。
同样在西部，圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) 的新秀后卫迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 因脑震荡缺阵的情况下，替补出场12投9中砍下27分，帮助球队在波特兰完成逆转。
不幸的是，近年的历史表明伤病将继续影响季后赛。因此，可以预见在接下来的几轮比赛中，会有更多球队需要替补球员作为援军顶上来。
这对俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 来说尤其是个好消息，因为这支卫冕冠军拥有全NBA最深的轮换阵容。杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 在对阵菲尼克斯太阳队 (Phoenix Suns) 的前两场比赛中表现强势，随后拉伤了左侧腹股沟——但在面对实力确实稍逊一筹的对手时，失去他的雷霆队几乎没有乱了阵脚。由于阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)、亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)、凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 和以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 通常都从替补席出发，雷霆队有充足的人选来填补这位全明星球员缺阵的空缺。
2. 马刺队手感热得发烫
关于马刺队作为年轻争冠球队的实力，唯一的重大疑问之一就是他们能否在季后赛级别的防守下投进三分球。
到目前为止，表现非常出色。马刺队在首轮以41.8%的三分命中率领跑所有球队。几乎全队都手感火热：除了德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)——他是球队常规赛的三分王——之外，每一位在首轮三分出手达到两位数的马刺球员，其命中率都高于平均水平。
圣安东尼奥马刺队首轮三分球表现
| 球员 | 场均出手数 | 三分命中率 |
|---|---|---|
| 德文·瓦塞尔 | 5.6 | 29% |
| 达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) | 5.4 | 37% |
| 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) | 5.4 | 41% |
| 朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) | 4.2 | 62% |
| 维克托·文班亚马 | 3.3 | 54% |
| 迪伦·哈珀 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) | 2.0 | 50% |
五场比赛虽然样本量较小，但这种表现是马刺队数月来火热手感的延续。自2月4日以来，圣安东尼奥的三分命中率以37.9%排名联盟第三，其中斯蒂芬·卡斯尔和哈珀在外线的进步尤为显著。
很难想象如果文班亚马保持健康，且他的队友们能持续投进空位三分，对手将如何限制马刺队的进攻。
3. 纽约的防守大放异彩
本赛季关于尼克斯队的大部分讨论都集中在他们的进攻上。卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 的球权够吗？米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 怎么了？乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 能投进球吗？米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 的进攻篮板有多关键？
但即便拥有唐斯和杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 这样倾向于进攻的球星，尼克斯队在防守端的威力几乎与进攻端旗鼓相当。在常规赛中，他们的进攻效率排名第四，防守效率排名第七。而在首轮的16支球队中，他们的进攻排名第二，防守排名第三，其防守效率（103.8）甚至优于常规赛全联盟最佳水平。
亚特兰大老鹰队 (Atlanta Hawks) 在系列赛初期通过CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 针对布伦森取得了一些成功，但总的来说，他们在面对尼克斯时得分非常艰难。亚特兰大在常规赛最后32场比赛中有31场得分至少达到100分，首轮的前三场也是如此。但在最后三场比赛中，老鹰队的得分均未破百，而这三场比赛尼克斯队全胜。
特别值得一提的是，由于OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、布里奇斯和哈特强硬的外线防守，尼克斯队锁死了亚特兰大的前两大得分手。在常规赛中，杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 合计场均得到43.3分，投篮命中率为47%，但在对阵纽约时，这一数据下降到了场均33.2分，命中率仅为41%。
展望下一轮，费城的泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 和乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 将带来与约翰逊和亚历山大-沃克完全不同的挑战和比赛风格。但尼克斯队这种被低估的坚韧防守，应该会为他们在本世纪首次冲击总决赛注入信心。
4. 掘金队遭遇得分荒
围绕掘金队的许多忧虑都集中在他们的防守上。毕竟，他们的防守效率仅排在第21位，而进攻则领跑全联盟。而且在过去的10个常规赛中，他们的进攻效率每年都排在前七。
但反直觉的是，在最近几个季后赛中，丹佛的进攻反而成了更大的问题。在掘金队自2023年夺冠以来的三次季后赛失利中，他们的进攻效率与常规赛相比都出现了两位数的下滑，并且在该轮比赛中排名联盟垫底或接近垫底。
掘金队过去三次季后赛系列赛失利中的进攻表现
| 季后赛年份 | 对手 | 进攻效率 | 较常规赛变化 | 轮次排名 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 森林狼 | 106.6 | -11.2 | 8支球队中第8 |
| 2025 | 雷霆 | 103.9 | -15.0 | 8支球队中第8 |
| 2026 | 森林狼 | 108.2 | -13.0 | 16支球队中第10 |
在对阵明尼苏达的比赛中，尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 的基础数据尚可，但效率却不尽如人意：约基奇的投篮命中率仅为45%，三分命中率为19%；穆雷的投篮命中率为36%，三分命中率为26%。而丹佛的配角阵容表现也极其不稳定。
这是理解丹佛即将进入可能动荡的休赛期的关键点。考虑到他们的人员构成，掘金队可能会倾向于将所有精力放在防守上，同时寄希望于约基奇和穆雷的卓越才华能将进攻提升到联盟顶尖水平。但过去几个季后赛表明，这还远远不够。丹佛需要在攻防两端都获得助力才能再次夺冠。
5. 防守虽难，但并非不可能
亚特兰大和丹佛的进攻挣扎是全联盟大趋势的一个缩影。就在上周，我曾写过关于本届季后赛得分下滑的文章。但在首轮结束后，这个话题值得再次探讨，因为自我的初稿发布以来，这种下滑趋势反而加剧了。
在2026年，这是一个反潮流的现象。联盟今年的进攻效率创下历史新高，场均得分也达到了自节奏极快的20世纪60年代以来的最高水平。在现代这种讲究空间和节奏的环境下，球队出现长时间的得分荒几乎是不可能的。
然而，在周五，奥兰多魔术队 (Orlando Magic) 在整整半场比赛中仅得到19分，创下了季后赛纪录，最终未能在第六场淘汰活塞队。几小时后，休斯顿在生死战中仅得到78分。次日晚上，波士顿在输给费城的抢七大战中，关键时刻投篮9投0中。
总的来说，各支球队在常规赛场均得到115.6分，而在季后赛中这一数字降至106.6分。这9.0分的降幅将创下NBA历史上单赛季常规赛到季后赛的最大跌幅。
这种模式是否会持续到季后赛结束仍有待观察。但随着俄克拉荷马城、圣安东尼奥、明尼苏达、纽约和底特律等顶级防守球队依然在列，剩下的球队正在证明，即使在进攻至上的时代，防守依然能赢得冠军。
6. 俄克拉荷马城的进攻势不可挡
有一支在首轮没有遇到得分困难的球队，那就是雷霆队。太阳队在常规赛的防守效率排名第九，根据 Cleaning the Glass 的数据，他们的半场防守排名第五——因此，俄克拉荷马城在四场比赛中正是在这种局面下打爆了太阳队，显得意义重大。
首轮没有任何其他球队的效率能接近俄克拉荷马城。雷霆队（每100回合阵地战得分112.2分）与排名第二的球队（尼克斯队，101.4分）在阵地战进攻效率上的差距，甚至超过了第二名与第十一名之间的差距。
自然地，这种成功很大程度上源于现任MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，他在创纪录的常规赛后，在首轮延续了同样的产出。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大以场均33.8分领跑所有球员，并且在他场均15.5次的两分球尝试中，命中率达到了惊人的61%。
作为对比，首轮其他26名场均至少尝试10次两分球的球员，其两分球合计命中率为50%。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大比他们高出了11个百分点。
季后赛首轮两分球命中率
防守强悍的雷霆队在能够将失误转化为快攻时总是显得不可战胜，但当比赛节奏慢下来时，他们有时会显得脆弱。但随着吉尔杰斯-亚历山大进入这种节奏，他们在阵地战中可能同样无法被防守。
7. 唐斯需要球权
几位资深的全明星/最佳阵容大个子在首轮打出了职业生涯中堪称最佳的季后赛高光时刻。鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 协助限制了约基奇。恩比德在经历了此前三次抢七失利后，砍下34分赢得了他的首场抢七大战。而唐斯在攻防两端都表现出色，通过战术调整释放了他的组织能力，并将系列赛1-2落后的局面转化为尼克斯队4-2的胜利。
这个调整很简单：尼克斯队给了唐斯更多球权，让他从球场中路进行策应。根据 GeniusIQ 的追踪数据，在这三场胜利中，他的持球占比在他作为尼克斯球员出战的170场比赛中分别排名第三、第四和第六。
结果是深远的：在本次季后赛之前，唐斯职业生涯的季后赛助攻纪录是5次。但在尼克斯淘汰亚特兰大的过程中，他连续三次超过了这个数字：第四场拿到了10次助攻的三双，第五场6次，第六场再次拿到10次助攻的三双。
这种方法在第二轮对阵费城时可能不会完全奏效，因为76人队的大个子在低位带来的挑战将比亚特兰大那些身材较小的中锋更严峻。但核心启示依然成立——让唐斯参与到进攻中，让他既能得分也能创造机会，这样布伦森就不必大包大揽。
8. 魔术队陷入危机
两年前，魔术队正处于上升期。在通过两次选秀先后得到弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner)、杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 和保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 后，他们赢下了47场比赛——这是该队13年来的最佳战绩——并在首轮将骑士队拖入抢七。在NBA，更不用说东部联盟，很少有球队看起来比他们更有前途。
但发展并不总是线性的，魔术队至今未能复制最初的那种爆发力。在各种伤病的影响下，他们上赛季战绩下滑至41胜41负，通过附加赛晋级后在首轮五场出局。尽管去年夏天通过交易送出四个首轮签和一个互换权换来了德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，他们今年也只取得了45胜37负的战绩，再次通过附加赛晋级。
随后出现了一个转折点：奥兰多在附加赛中大胜夏洛特锁定8号种子，随后在对阵1号种子活塞队的系列赛中取得了3-1的领先。他们距离成为历史上第七支上演“黑八奇迹”的球队仅一步之遥。
然而，正如过去几年经常发生的那样，由于伤病（这次是瓦格纳）和表现不佳的共同作用，状态不稳的魔术队未能延续成功。魔术队输掉了第五场，在历史级拉胯的第六场中浪费了24分的领先优势，并在第七场惨败。
击败底特律本可以让魔术队救赎这个原本失败的赛季。但现在，他们在这个夏天面临着重大疑问，以及潜在的巨变。他们下赛季的薪资预计将超过第一土豪线，但目前的这套核心阵容甚至不足以赢得一轮季后赛，也不够健康。主教练贾马尔·莫斯利 (Jamahl Mosley) 的帅位已经岌岌可危。安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black) 面临续约。而班凯罗和瓦格纳的搭档关系一直很微妙，其结果从未匹配过他们的天赋。
其他在首轮出局的球队——包括丹佛、休斯顿和波士顿——也可能在今年夏天进行重大的阵容重组。但没有任何地方比奥兰多更迫切需要这种改变。
9. 底特律和克利夫兰不能掉以轻心
对于这两支中部赛区的竞争者来说，好消息是他们挺过了首轮。现在，他们中的一个肯定能进入分区决赛。
但坏消息是，在那些出人意料的艰苦首轮胜利中，关于这两支球队的几乎每一个担忧都被放大了，这让人们怀疑他们是否真的是总决赛的有力竞争者。
活塞队一度1-3落后于魔术队，尽管他们在逆转过程中展现出的心理韧性以及一贯出色的防守值得称赞，但如果不是瓦格纳在第五、六、七场缺阵，或者如果不是奥兰多在第六场最后阶段突然哑火，他们很可能会输掉系列赛。
此外，杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 在季后赛的剧烈退步是一个巨大的隐患，因为他即将面对克利夫兰的全明星内线，而且当活塞队的二号得分手像杜伦对阵魔术时那样迷失时，他们很难得分。在凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 和托拜亚斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 之后，没有任何活塞球员在首轮场均得分超过10.6分。作为一支球队，底特律的三分球排名垫底，场均仅投进9.7个。
与此同时，尽管拥有天赋优势且对方多名主力受伤，骑士队在对阵猛龙队时依然打得非常挣扎。克利夫兰输掉了所有的客场比赛，并且在主场的第七场上半场大部分时间处于落后，直到下半场才开始发力。
尽管贾雷特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 有时表现得极具统治力，但骑士队的全明星后卫组合表现得异常沉寂。多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 合计场均仅得到43.7分（低于常规赛的48.4分），投篮命中率为44%。这也是未来的一个隐忧，因为底特律的防守甚至比多伦多还要强硬。
因此，底特律和克利夫兰都可以暂时松一口气，因为他们避免了丢脸的爆冷出局。但如果他们想要在争冠之路上走得更远，两者都必须重新整顿，并在接下来的比赛中打得更好。
10. 我们正走向一场史诗级的分区决赛对决
如果说首轮的总体特征是“离奇”，那么用两组不符合这一主题的系列赛作为总结再合适不过了：俄克拉荷马城横扫了菲尼克斯，而圣安东尼奥在五场内击败了波特兰——唯一的失利是在文班亚马提前退场的那场比赛。
这是自2014年以来，首次只有两组首轮系列赛在五场之内结束。
根据 Cleaning the Glass 的数据，俄克拉荷马城和圣安东尼奥在常规赛的胜场数和净效率分别排名第一和第二。尽管湖人队和森林狼队克服了看似致命的伤病闯入第二轮，尽管东部季后赛版图中的四支球队中有三支以三连胜的姿态强势晋级首轮，但似乎没有其他球队能达到雷霆队和马刺队那样的高度。
随着季后赛的进行，可能会出现更多离奇的惊喜。但就目前而言，潜在的雷霆对阵马刺的分区决赛，看起来是余下季后赛中最值得期待的顶级对决。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA playoffs 2026: 10 lessons from strange Round 1, impact on semifinals
NBA playoffs 2026: 10 lessons from strange Round 1, impact on semifinals
The first round of the 2025-26 NBA playoffs was full of strange and unexpected twists.
Two teams – the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers – advanced despite injuries to their leading scorers. Two more teams – the Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons – came back from 3-1 deficits. The Toronto Raptors delayed their eventual elimination by the Cleveland Cavaliers thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer that bounced high off the rim before falling safely through the net in Game 6.
The league calendar gives almost no time to rest and breathe after that first-round chaos. Following three Game 7s over the weekend, the second round begins Monday night at Madison Square Garden (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video) as the New York Knicks and 76ers renew their rivalry.
But it’s still worth taking a beat to reflect on the lessons of all that chaos before plunging headlong into the second round. Let’s explore 10 takeaways about how the first round’s strangeness unfolded – and how it will affect the rest of the playoffs and the offseason to come.
1. The bench matters
Conventional NBA wisdom holds that the depth of a team’s rotation becomes less important in the playoffs, as stars play more minutes and rotations shrink. That sentiment holds some truth.
But reserves still matter – and given the number of injuries in the postseason, those reserves become even more important, swinging games either off the bench or when pressed into emergency starting duty.
Minnesota eliminated the Denver Nuggets for the second time in three years in large part because of its backups, who stepped up after Anthony Edwards hyperextended his left knee and Donte DiVincenzo tore his right Achilles tendon. Ayo Dosunmu scored 43 points off the bench in Minnesota’s Game 4 win. And fellow Timberwolves guard Terrence Shannon Jr. didn’t play at all in the first three games before scoring 24 points in his first career playoff start to help clinch Game 6.
For Los Angeles, which successfully navigated the absences of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to beat Houston, Luke Kennard was the main bench stalwart. He scored 50 points across the first two Lakers wins, beating his previous career playoff high twice in a row. Although Kennard regressed as the series continued, his hot start helped the Lakers gain the series lead before Reaves returned and relegated Kennard back to bench duty.
Also in the West, rookie San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper came off the bench to score 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting in a comeback win in Portland with Victor Wembanyama sidelined by a concussion.
Unfortunately, recent history suggests that injuries will continue to affect the playoffs. So expect more teams to require reserves to fill in as reinforcements over the next few rounds.
That’s good news for the Oklahoma City Thunder, most of all, because the defending champions have the deepest rotation in the NBA. Jalen Williams looked dominant through two games against the Phoenix Suns, before straining his left hamstring – but against an admittedly overmatched opponent, the Thunder scarcely missed a step without him. With Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe all typically coming off the bench, the Thunder have plenty of replacements for their missing All-Star.
2. The Spurs are scorching the nets
One of the only big questions about the Spurs’ bona fides as young title contenders was whether they could make their 3s against playoff defenses.
So far, so good. The Spurs led all teams in the first round by shooting 41.8% from distance. Just about the whole roster was hot: With the exception of Devin Vassell – the team’s leading 3-point scorer in the regular season – every Spur with double-digit attempts had above-average accuracy in the first round.
San Antonio’s 3-Point Shooting in First Round
| Player | Attempts Per Game | 3P% |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 5.6 | 29% |
| De’Aaron Fox | 5.4 | 37% |
| Stephon Castle | 5.4 | 41% |
| Julian Champagnie | 4.2 | 62% |
| Victor Wembanyama | 3.3 | 54% |
| Dylan Harper | 2.0 | 50% |
| Keldon Johnson | 2.0 | 50% |
Five games is a small sample, but that performance was the continuation of months of hot shooting for the Spurs. After Feb. 4, San Antonio ranked third with a 37.9% 3-point mark, with Stephon Castle and Harper showing particular improvement from distance.
It’s difficult to fathom how opponents will be able to slow the Spurs’ offense if Wembanyama is healthy and his teammates are knocking down open 3s.
3. New York’s defense shines
Most of the discussion surrounding the Knicks all season has been about their offense. Is Karl-Anthony Towns getting enough touches? What happened to Mikal Bridges? Can Josh Hart knock down shots? How crucial is Mitchell Robinson’s offensive rebounding?
But even with the offense-inclined Towns and Jalen Brunson as their stars, the Knicks are almost as potent on the other end of the court as they are on offense. In the regular season, they ranked fourth in offensive rating and seventh on defense. And out of 16 teams in the first round, they were second on offense and third on defense, with a defensive rating (103.8) that would’ve been the best in the league in the regular season.
The Atlanta Hawks found early success when CJ McCollum targeted Brunson, but by and large, they struggled to score against the Knicks. Atlanta scored at least 100 points in 31 of its last 32 games in the regular season, as well as in Games 1, 2 and 3 of the first round. But the Hawks failed to reach triple digits in each of the last three games, which were all Knicks wins.
In particular, the Knicks shut down Atlanta’s top two scorers because of the stout perimeter play of OG Anunoby, Bridges and Hart. In the regular season, Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker combined to average 43.3 points on 47% shooting, but they fell to 33.2 PPG on 41% shooting against New York.
Looking ahead to the next round, Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid present very different challenges and playing styles than Johnson and Alexander-Walker did. But the Knicks’ unsung stinginess should give them confidence as they attempt to reach the Finals for the first time this century.
4. The Nuggets have a scoring problem
So much consternation around the Nuggets concerns their defense. After all, they were the 21st-ranked unit on that end, while they led the league in offense. And they’ve had a top-seven offense in each of the past 10 regular seasons.
But counterintuitively, it’s Denver’s offense that has been a bigger problem in recent postseasons. In the Nuggets’ three playoff defeats since winning the title in 2023, their offensive rating has fallen by double digits compared with the regular season, and they’ve ranked at or near the bottom of the league in that round.
Nuggets Offense in Last Three Playoff Series Losses
| Postseason | Opponent | Offensive Rating | vs. Regular Season | Rank in Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Timberwolves | 106.6 | -11.2 | 8th out of 8 |
| 2025 | Thunder | 103.9 | -15.0 | 8th out of 8 |
| 2026 | Timberwolves | 108.2 | -13.0 | 10th out of 16 |
Against Minnesota, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray had solid surface stats but substandard efficiency: Jokic shot just 45% from the field and 19% on 3s, and Murray shot 36% from the field and 26% on 3s. And Denver’s supporting cast was inconsistent at best.
This is an important point to understand, as Denver approaches a potentially tumultuous offseason. Given their personnel, the Nuggets might be tempted to put all of their focus on defense while trusting in the brilliance of Jokic and Murray to lift their offense to league-best heights. But the past few postseasons show that’s not good enough. Denver needs help on both ends to win another title.
5. Defense is hard but not impossible
Offensive struggles in Atlanta and Denver are symptomatic of a broader leaguewide trend. Just last week, I wrote about the scoring decline this postseason. But it’s a topic worth revisiting after the conclusion of the first round because that decline only accelerated since my initial piece.
That’s an anachronistic trend in 2026. The league’s offensive rating has never been higher than it was this year, and points per game reached its highest level since the turbo-paced 1960s. It should be practically impossible for teams to go on long scoring droughts in this modern pace-and-space environment.
And yet, on Friday the Magic scored 19 points in an entire half, setting a playoff record, as they failed to close out the Pistons in Game 6. Hours later, Houston managed only 78 points in an elimination game. The next night, Boston went 0-for-9 on clutch shooting in its Game 7 loss to Philadelphia.
On the whole, after teams averaged 115.6 points per game in the regular season, they’re down to 106.6 in the playoffs. The 9.0-point decline would be the largest in any season in NBA history.
Whether that pattern continues through the remainder of the playoffs remains to be seen. But with elite defenses still alive in Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Minnesota, New York and Detroit, the remaining teams are showing that, even in an offense-first era, defense can still win championships.
6. Oklahoma City’s offense is rolling
One team that didn’t have trouble scoring in the first round is the Thunder. The Suns ranked ninth in defensive rating in the regular season, and they were fifth specifically on half-court plays, per Cleaning the Glass – so it seems meaningful that Oklahoma City spent four games torching the Suns in exactly that situation.
No other team came close to Oklahoma City’s efficiency in the first round. The gap in half-court offensive rating between the Thunder (112.2 points per 100 halfcourt plays) and the second-best team (the Knicks, at 101.4) was larger than the gap between second and No. 11.
Naturally, much of that success comes from reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who followed a record-setting regular season with similar production in the first round. Gilgeous-Alexander led all players with 33.8 PPG in the first round, and he shot an outrageous 61% on his 15.5 2-point attempts per game.
For context, the other 26 players in the first round who attempted at least 10 2-pointers per game shot a collective 50% on their 2s. Gilgeous-Alexander was 11 percentage points higher than that.
2-Point Shooting in the First Round
The defensively stout Thunder have always looked unbeatable when they can turn turnovers into fast breaks, but they’ve been vulnerable at times when the game slows down. But with Gilgeous-Alexander in rhythm like this, they also might be unguardable in the half court.
7. KAT needs the ball
Several veteran All-NBA big men enjoyed arguably the best playoff highlights of their careers in the first round. Rudy Gobert helped stymie Jokic. Embiid scored 34 points to win his first Game 7, after three previous losses. And Towns excelled on both ends, with a tactical tweak unleashing his playmaking and turning a 2-1 series deficit into a 4-2 win for the Knicks.
The tweak was simple: The Knicks gave Towns the ball more and let him distribute from the middle of the court. His on-ball percentage in those three wins ranks third, fourth and sixth out of 170 games he has played as a Knick, per GeniusIQ tracking.
But the results were profound: Before this postseason, Towns’ career high in playoff assists was five. But he exceeded that number three times in a row as the Knicks closed out Atlanta, with 10 in a triple-double in Game 4, six in Game 5 and 10 more in another triple-double in Game 6.
This exact approach might not work in the second round against Philadelphia, as the 76ers’ big men will present a stiffer challenge in the post than any of Atlanta’s smaller centers. But the general lesson – to keep Towns involved in the offense and let him both score and create, so Brunson doesn’t have to do it all himself – remains.
8. The Magic are in crisis
Two years ago, the Magic were on the rise. After adding Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero in the span of two drafts, they won 47 games – the franchise’s best record in 13 years – and pushed the Cavaliers to seven games in the first round. Few teams in the NBA, let alone the Eastern Conference, looked to have a brighter future.
But development isn’t always linear, and the Magic have yet to replicate that initial burst. Amid various injuries, they slid to a 41-41 record, play-in appearance and five-game loss in the first round last season, and – despite trading four first-round picks and a swap for Desmond Bane last summer – they stumbled to a 45-37 mark and another play-in berth this year.
Then came an apparent turnaround: Orlando nabbed the No. 8 seed with a blowout win over Charlotte in the play-in round, then took a 3-1 lead against the top-seeded Pistons. They were one win from becoming the seventh No. 8 seed to win a round.
And then, as has happened so often over the past few years, the inconsistent Magic couldn’t sustain their success, due to a combination of injuries (in this case, to Wagner) and underperformance. The Magic lost Game 5, blew a 24-point lead in a historically inept Game 6 and were blown out in Game 7.
Defeating Detroit could have allowed the Magic to redeem an otherwise lost season. But now they face major questions, and potentially major changes, this summer. They’re already projected over the first apron next season, but are not good or healthy enough to have won a single playoff series with this core. Coach Jamahl Mosley has been on the hot seat. Anthony Black is up for an extension. And Banchero and Wagner have always had a tenuous partnership with results that have never matched their talent.
Other teams that lost in the first round – including Denver, Houston and Boston – could also do significant work reshaping their rosters this summer. But nowhere is that need more pressing than Orlando.
9. Detroit and Cleveland can’t feel comfortable
The good news for the two Central Division contenders is that they survived the first round. Now one of them is guaranteed to reach the conference finals.
But the bad news is that just about every concern about the two teams was magnified in their unexpectedly tricky first-round wins, casting doubt on their legitimacy as Finals contenders.
The Pistons fell behind 3-1 against the Magic, and though they deserve ample credit for their mental resilience in coming back – as well as for their typically stellar defense – they probably would have lost the series if not for Wagner’s absence in Games 5, 6 and 7, or if not for Orlando’s sudden inability to make a shot down the stretch in Game 6.
Moreover, Jalen Duren’s dramatic playoff regression is a huge concern as he prepares to match up against Cleveland’s star bigs, and the Pistons struggle to score when their No. 2 scorer is lost the way Duren was against the Magic. After Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris, no Piston averaged more than 10.6 points in the first round. As a team, Detroit ranked last in 3-pointers, with just 9.7 makes per game.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, struggled to put away the Raptors despite a talent advantage and several key Raptors injuries. Cleveland lost all three games on the road and trailed for most of the first half in Game 7, at home, before turning on the jets after halftime.
And though Jarrett Allen looked dominant at times, Cleveland’s star guards turned in oddly muted performances. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden combined for just 43.7 PPG (down from 48.4 in the regular season) on 44% shooting. That’s also a concern looking ahead, as Detroit’s defense is even tougher than Toronto’s.
So Detroit and Cleveland can each breathe a momentary sigh of relief for avoiding a humiliating upset loss. But then both have to regroup and play better going forward if they want any chance at a title run.
10. We’re on track for a titanic clash in the conference finals
If this first round was broadly defined by its strangeness, then it’s fitting to end these takeaways with the two series that didn’t fit that theme: Oklahoma City swept Phoenix, and San Antonio beat Portland in five games – with its only loss coming in a game Wembanyama left early.
This was the first year since 2014 in which only two first-round series ended within five games.
Oklahoma City and San Antonio ranked first and second in the regular season in wins and net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. And with respect to the Lakers and Timberwolves, who survived seemingly calamitous injuries to reach the second round, and to all four Eastern Conference teams in the playoff bracket, three of which stormed to first-round victories with three-game winning streaks, nobody else appears anywhere near the same lofty level as the Thunder and Spurs.
More strange surprises might arise as the postseason continues. But for now, a potential Thunder vs. Spurs conference finals looks like the top series to await over the rest of the playoffs.
By Zach Kram, via ESPN