By ESPN, 2026-05-18 12:13:00
最终四强已经产生。
2026年NBA季后赛已进入分区决赛阶段，两场史诗般的对决将决定哪两支球队能最终角逐拉里·奥布莱恩杯。
东部决赛的两支球队——纽约尼克斯队和克利夫兰骑士队——在赛季前都被视为夺得该分区的并列热门。现在，杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 等球星将在赛场上决出胜负。
尼克斯队有充足的时间进行准备。他们在八天前就完成了次轮横扫，而骑士队则必须在周日的抢七大战中客场取胜才能晋级。
但那场对决只是西部决赛的“垫场赛”，而西部决赛则具备了成为史上最佳对决之一的潜力。蝉联MVP的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 领衔俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的卫冕之路，而维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和圣安东尼奥马刺队——尽管重建进度已远超预期——正寻求跨越所有台阶，力争夺取令人震惊的总冠军。
分区决赛中什么最重要？ESPN的蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps) 采访了多位NBA球探，分析了每轮系列赛的关键点，我们的NBA专家也回答了可能决定谁能晋级总决赛的问题。
跳转至系列赛：
雷霆 vs. 马刺
尼克斯 vs. 骑士
西部决赛：(1) 雷霆 vs. (2) 马刺
雷霆晋级之路
首轮：4-0 击败太阳
分区半决赛：4-0 击败湖人
马刺晋级之路
首轮：4-1 击败开拓者
分区半决赛：4-2 击败森林狼
雷霆顶尖的外线防守者能否在球场的另一端让马刺付出代价？
在两队常规赛的五次交锋中，马刺队放任俄克拉荷马城的三位外线防守悍将——吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)、凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)——用跳投来击败他们。这是一个明智的策略，优先收缩禁区以堵塞吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的突破路线，通常让文班亚马对位其中一名角色球员并大幅收缩防守。这一策略非常成功。
卡鲁索在对阵圣安东尼奥的比赛中三分球21投仅5中，其中包括在圣诞大战马刺客场取胜时12投2中的表现。华莱士在长距离投射方面同样是21投5中，且在131分钟的出场时间里，正负值为全队最低的-32。多尔特的表现尚可，21投8中，但雷霆队的进攻在他上场对阵马刺时显得停滞不前，每100回合仅得107.5分，比雷霆队的正常水平低了10分以上。
雷霆队可以求助于神射手伊赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 和贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain)，但面对由德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 组成的圣安东尼奥充满活力的后场三人组，外线防守至关重要。
给那些久经沙场的冠军角色球员空位投篮机会也是有风险的，特别是如果前两轮的状态得以延续。在雷霆横扫太阳和湖人的比赛中，卡鲁索、多尔特和华莱士合计三分球100投40中。 —— 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)
马刺队缺乏季后赛经验会伤害到他们吗？
微乎其微，甚至完全没有。
如果这是第一轮，答案可能会有所不同，但圣安东尼奥已经拼下了两轮系列赛才走到这里，一路上经历了各种形式的逆境。首先，文班亚马在首轮第二场表现不佳，随后因脑震荡缺席了一场比赛。接着，在第二轮，文班亚马一次时机不当的肘击打到了纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 的下巴和颈部，导致被驱逐出场。在这两轮比赛中，马刺队都证明了他们能在季后赛强度增加的情况下茁壮成长。在常规赛中，圣安东尼奥本赛季对阵雷霆4胜1负的战绩也表明他们完全没有畏惧心理。其中一场胜利来自NBA杯半决赛，那是赛季初期对阵卫冕冠军时的一次季后赛氛围预演。 —— 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
可能定义系列赛的数据
文班亚马在本赛季与俄克拉荷马城的五次交锋中场均仅出场25分钟，因为他在伤愈复出期间受到了出场时间限制。即便如此，马刺队在这些比赛中依然取得了4胜1负的战绩，因为在文班亚马出场的125分钟里，马刺净胜50分（而在他下场时净负24分）。显然，文班亚马在本轮系列赛中将获得更多出场时间，这意味着雷霆队需要在他在场时打得更好，才能重返总决赛。 —— 扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)
球探关于防守大战的看法：
“无论你的阵容如何，你都必须在[对阵雷霆]时保护好球权，因为如果你不这样做，他们就会直接得分。如果马刺队能凭借现有的人员和教练团队布置好防守，他们就能防住雷霆。但如果他们不断失误，就防不住了。这是拼图中巨大的一块，也是我首先关注的事情。”
“我认为拥有维克托是应对雷霆所有战术的终极平衡器。我认为马刺拥有足够的运动能力、换防能力和移动速度，能够在防守端与雷霆抗衡，并能给谢伊提供足够多不同的防守对位。而在另一端，现实是雷霆队之所以如此强势是因为他们的防守。他们是我见过最出色的防守球队之一。”
2025-26赛季交锋记录： 马刺 4，雷霆 1
(3) 尼克斯 vs. (4) 骑士
尼克斯晋级之路
首轮：4-2 击败老鹰
分区半决赛：4-0 击败费城
骑士晋级之路
首轮：4-3 击败猛龙
分区半决赛：4-3 击败活塞
尼克斯的进攻能否保持强势？
很难看出为什么不能。克利夫兰可能会在第一场比赛中感到些许震惊，因为猛龙和活塞都不是进攻特别出色的球队，而尼克斯在六场击败亚特兰大老鹰并横扫76人后，有充足的时间进行磨合。
骑士队在周日客场战胜底特律的抢七大战中展现出了一些韧性，但这能延续下去吗？埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley) 和贾莱特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 在面对外线的唐斯，以及周围不断的空切和掩护时，防守起来会感到自如吗？
也许骑士队会简单地以火攻火，放手让米切尔去进攻，但东部季后赛的一切布局对尼克斯来说都非常完美，而他们到目前为止也充分利用了这些优势。不要指望这种情况会改变。 —— 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
克利夫兰的大个子如何对位2.0版本的唐斯？
阿伦和莫布利在职业生涯中一直被诟病不够强硬，以至于外界纷纷猜测球队最终是否分开他们会更好。但在本次季后赛中，阿伦和莫布利以改变风评的表现做出了回应。他们在面对猛龙和活塞的强硬防守时，最终都是由骑士队的大个子赢得了内线肉搏。
阿伦在克利夫兰本赛季的两场抢七大战中都挺身而出砍下20分。莫布利展现了骑士队多年来所设想的全能技巧，在进攻端是一个错位麻烦，在防守端则是联盟顶尖的内线守护者。尼克斯的大个子唐斯将是他们迄今为止面临的最具技巧性的对位难题，尤其是考虑到唐斯正处于职业生涯的最佳状态。 —— 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)
可能定义系列赛的数据
平均而言，纽约尼克斯的先发球员在本次季后赛中已出场309分钟。而克利夫兰骑士的先发球员已出场460分钟。这高达49%的差距是合理的，因为尼克斯在次轮完成了横扫并多次大胜，而骑士队经历了两次七场大战。
但随着分区决赛进入隔天一赛的赛程，骑士队额外的体能损耗可能被证明是致命的。克利夫兰还有体力支撑另一场漫长的系列赛吗？根据ESPN Research的数据，在首轮和次轮都打满七场的球队，在分区决赛中的战绩仅为1胜4负；2008年的凯尔特人赢了，但2020年的掘金、2016年的猛龙、2006年的太阳和2003年的独行侠都输了。 —— 克拉姆
球探关于尼克斯两个关键点的看法：
“卡尔-安东尼·唐斯将如何被使用，这是巨大的胜负手。当[纽约]赢球时，他总是深度参与其中。他们正在学习如何互相配合。杰伦[布伦森]知道什么时候该让队友触球，以及如何让每个人都参与进来。但这一切都取决于OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 是否健康。……[如果]他们打小阵容，那正是骑士队想要的。”
2025-26赛季交锋记录： 尼克斯 2，骑士 1
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA conference finals preview: Thunder-Spurs, Knicks-Cavaliers
NBA conference finals preview: Thunder-Spurs, Knicks-Cavaliers
And then there were four.
The 2026 NBA playoffs have reached the conference finals, with two epic matchups to decide which two teams will battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
The East finals feature two franchises – the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers – that were picked as preseason co-favorites to win the conference. Now, stars such as Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will decide that title on the court.
The Knicks have had plenty of time to prepare. They finished off their second-round sweep eight days ago, and the Cavs had to win a Game 7 on the road Sunday to advance.
But that showdown is the undercard to a West finals that has the potential to be an all-time great. Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Oklahoma City Thunder’s repeat bid, while Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs – already far ahead of schedule – look to skip all the steps and break through for a stunning championship.
What will matter most in the conference finals? ESPN’s Tim Bontemps talked to multiple NBA scouts, breaking down the keys to each series, and our NBA insiders answered the questions that could determine who moves on to the Finals.
Jump to a series:
Thunder vs. Spurs
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
West finals: (1) Thunder vs. (2) Spurs
How Thunder got here
First round: Def. PHX 4-0
Conf. semis: Def. LAL 4-0
How Spurs got here
First round: Def. POR 4-1
Conf. semis: Def. MIN 4-2
Can OKC’s elite perimeter defenders make the Spurs pay – on the other end of the floor?
The Spurs dared Oklahoma City’s trio of perimeter stoppers – Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso – to beat them with their jump shots during the teams’ five regular-season meetings. It’s a sensible strategy, prioritizing packing the paint to clog the driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander, often by having Wembanyama assigned to one of the role players and sagging far off of them. It was also successful.
Caruso was 5-for-21 from 3-point range against San Antonio, including a 2-for-12 performance during the Spurs’ Christmas Day win at Paycom Center. Wallace was also 5-for-21 from long range and had a team-worst minus-32 in 131 minutes. Dort was a respectable 8-for-21, but the Thunder’s offense sputtered with him on the floor against the Spurs, scoring 107.5 points per 100 possessions, more than 10 points worse than Oklahoma City’s norm.
The Thunder can turn to sharpshooters Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain, but perimeter defense is at a premium against the dynamic San Antonio backcourt trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.
There’s also risk in giving up good looks to proven championship role players, especially if the first couple of rounds carry over. Caruso, Dort and Wallace combined to go 40-for-100 on 3s as the Thunder swept the Suns and Lakers. – Tim MacMahon
Will the Spurs’ lack of playoff experience hurt them?
Negligibly, if at all.
This answer would be different if this was the first round, but San Antonio has fought through two series to get here, experiencing different forms of adversity along the way. First, Wembanyama face-planted in Game 2 of the opening round, forcing him to miss one outing due to a concussion. Then, in Round 2, an ill-timed elbow by Wembanyama to the jaw and neck of Naz Reid led to an ejection. In both rounds, the Spurs showed they can thrive playing through increased postseason physicality. During the regular season, San Antonio’s 4-1 record against the Thunder this season also showed it wasn’t at all in awe. One of those wins came in the NBA Cup semifinals, an early-season taste of playoff atmosphere against the defending champs. – Michael C. Wright
Stat that could define the series
Wembanyama averaged just 25 minutes per game in five meetings with Oklahoma City this season, because he was on a minutes limit as he worked his way back from injury. And the Spurs still went 4-1 in those games because they were plus-50 in Wembanyama’s 125 minutes (and minus-24 without him). Surely, Wembanyama will get more playing time in this series, which means the Thunder need to play much better when he’s on the floor to return to the Finals. – Zach Kram
Scout’s take, on the defensive battle:
“No matter what your roster is, you have to take care of the ball [against OKC], because if you don’t it’s automatic points. If the Spurs can set their defense with the personnel and coaching they have, they can guard OKC. But they can’t guard them if they are turning the ball over. That’s a huge piece of the puzzle and that’s the first thing I’m looking for.”
“I think having Victor is the great equalizer to everything the Thunder do. I think they have the athleticism, the switching and the footspeed to be able to compete defensively to be able to guard OKC, and enough different looks to throw at Shai. And on the other end, the reality is the Thunder are as dominant as they are because of their defense. They’re one of the best defenses I’ve ever seen.”
Head-to-head in 2025-26: Spurs 4, Thunder 1
(3) Knicks vs. (4) Cavaliers
How Knicks got here
First round: Def. ATL 4-2
Conf. semis: Def. PHI 4-0
How Cavaliers got here
First round: Def. TOR 4-3
Conf. semis: Def. DET 4-3
Can the Knicks’ offense keep rolling?
It’s difficult to see why not. Cleveland probably will experience some Game 1 shock considering neither the Raptors nor Pistons are particularly impressive offensive teams, while the Knicks have had nothing but time to fine-tune after blitzing through the Atlanta Hawks in six games and the 76ers in a sweep.
The Cavaliers discovered some toughness in Sunday’s Game 7 road win at Detroit, but will that carry over? Will Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen be comfortable defending Towns on the perimeter with cutters and screens all around?
Perhaps the Cavs will simply fight fire with fire and turn Mitchell loose, but everything in the East bracket has been laid out perfectly for the Knicks, and they’ve taken full advantage so far. Don’t expect that to change. – Vincent Goodwill
How do Cleveland’s bigs match up against KAT 2.0?
Allen and Mobley have been maligned throughout their careers as not physical enough, so much so that speculation swirled about whether the team would eventually be better off splitting them up. But during these playoffs, Allen and Mobley have responded with narrative-changing performances. They faced physical and tough defenses in Toronto and Detroit and by the end of each series, it was the Cavs’ bigs who won the interior battle.
Allen rose to the occasion to score 20 points in both of Cleveland’s Game 7s this postseason. Mobley flashed the all-around skill the Cavs have envisioned for years, a matchup problem on offense and one of the best interior defenders in the league. Knicks big man Towns will present their most skilled matchup issue yet, especially considering Towns is playing the best basketball of his career. – Jamal Collier
Stat that could define the series
On average, New York’s starters have played 309 minutes this postseason. Cleveland’s starters have played 460. That whopping 49% difference makes sense, given the Knicks’ second-round sweep and numerous blowout wins, compared to the Cavaliers’ two seven-game series.
But with the conference finals on an every-other-day schedule, the extra wear and tear on the Cavaliers could prove crucial. Does Cleveland have the stamina for another long series? Teams that needed seven games in both the first and second rounds are just 1-4 in the conference finals, according to ESPN Research; the 2008 Celtics won, but the 2020 Nuggets, 2016 Raptors, 2006 Suns and 2003 Mavericks all lost. – Kram
Scout’s take, on two Knicks keys:
“How Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be used, that’s the huge difference-maker. When [New York] wins games, he’s heavily involved. They’re learning how to play off of one another. Jalen [Brunson] knows when to get touches for people and how to get everyone involved. But it all depends on if OG [Anunoby] is healthy. … [If] they go smaller, that’s what the Cavaliers will want.”
Head-to-head in 2025-26: Knicks 2, Cavaliers 1
By ESPN, via ESPN