By NBA insiders, 2026-04-27 19:00:00
2026年NBA季后赛开赛已一周有余，首轮系列赛的表现没有让人失望。
周日，洛杉矶湖人队未能终结与休斯顿火箭队的系列赛，火箭队成功将比赛拖入周三在洛杉矶进行的第五场对决。该系列赛的胜者将面对俄克拉荷马城雷霆队与菲尼克斯太阳队系列赛的赢家。目前卫冕冠军雷霆队以3-0领先，这组对决可能在周一尘埃落定。
在东部，1号种子底特律活塞队在面对8号种子奥兰多魔术队时打得十分挣扎，难以找到节奏。此外，克利夫兰骑士队对阵多伦多猛龙队、纽约尼克斯队对阵亚特兰大老鹰队的系列赛目前均战成2-2平。
随着首轮多场精彩对决仍在继续，我们的NBA内幕专家针对每组系列赛的关键问题进行了解答。ESPN的鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks) 分析了哪些自由球员在目前的季后赛中提升或降低了身价，分析师扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 则根据爆冷潜力对各系列赛进行了排名。
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关键问题：东部 | 西部
系列赛排名 | 自由市场行情观察
东部联盟
(8) 奥兰多魔术 2-1 领先 (1) 底特律活塞
如果杰伦·杜伦不在最佳状态，活塞队还能赢吗？
魔术队让活塞队领教了同样的身体对抗强度、令人窒息的防守和见缝插针的进攻。除了第二场比赛中那次单节7次盖帽以及第三节30-3的进攻高潮，以及第三场比赛中功亏一篑的第四节绝地反击外，活塞队看起来完全不像那支在本赛季常规赛豪取60胜的球队。
一个主要原因是全明星内线杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 几乎没有发挥作用，表现完全被奥兰多的温德尔·卡特 (Wendell Carter Jr.) 盖过。在第三场比赛中，杜伦虽然贡献了5次盖帽，但领到6次犯规离场，全场仅得到8分和9个篮板，投篮10投3中。这与他在常规赛场均19.5分、10.5个篮板和65%投篮命中率的表现相去甚远。更糟糕的是，卡特在第三场比赛中表现神勇，砍下14分和17个篮板，其中包括8个进攻篮板。他给杜伦和艾赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 制造了巨大麻烦，以至于教练J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B Bickerstaff) 在第三节早早换上保罗·里德 (Paul Reed) 以寻求转机。
凯德·康宁汉 (Cade Cunningham) 需要所有能得到的帮助。比克斯塔夫和助教卢克·沃顿 (Luke Walton) 在周五练习后与杜伦长谈了很久，他表示由于魔术队收缩禁区，杜伦在挡拆中一直无法获得空间。而且魔术队通过多人包夹进一步限制了杜伦。如果杜伦不能打出全明星级别的表现，活塞队将很难在攻防两端的禁区内建立优势。—— Ohm Youngmisuk
(2) 波士顿凯尔特人 3-1 领先 (7) 费城76人
这组系列赛结束了吗？
看起来确实如此。波士顿在整个系列赛中都掌控着局面，创造了大量的空位三分机会。除了第二场比赛三分球50投13中的低迷表现外，凯尔特人队一直保持着精准的投射。虽然乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 在接受阑尾切除急诊手术不到三周后于周日复出是一个感人的故事，但这并不能掩盖费城面临的整体劣势。凯尔特人队制造了一个让76人队难以破解的“数学难题”（三分产量的差距）。
尤其是第三场比赛，似乎是局势彻底倒向波士顿的转折点。那是一场双方都有机会取胜的激战，但波士顿最终凭借杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard) 出色的投射拿下了比赛。除非命运发生巨大逆转，否则凯尔特人队很快就将开启他们10年内的第9次东部半决赛之旅。—— Tim Bontemps
(3) 纽约尼克斯 2-2 战平 (6) 阿特兰大老鹰
在经历了一个起伏不定的赛季后，尼克斯队解锁了卡尔-安东尼·唐斯吗？
如果第四场比赛有任何参考价值的话，答案可能是肯定的。卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 的使用方式是我们以前从未见过的，至少没有大规模见过。他在高位策应，为OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 送出了多次妙传（全场10次助攻），轻松得分。
但这种调整似乎并非刻意为之——至少从迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 赛后的谈话来看是这样——仿佛这更像是机缘巧合，而非为了最大化唐斯价值而进行的战术转型。当唐斯进入状态时，尼克斯队对杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 个人进攻的依赖就会减轻。
系列赛四场比赛下来，唐斯的产出已经超过了他职业生涯的季后赛平均水平。他是否应该在接下来的比赛中获得更多球权？这个永恒的问题依然存在。 —— Vincent Goodwill
(4) 克利夫兰骑士 2-2 战平 (5) 多伦多猛龙
詹姆斯·哈登和多诺万·米切尔将如何回应？
詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 和多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 进入今年季后赛时都准备好改写职业生涯的评价。这两位球星从未缺席过季后赛——哈登是连续17年，米切尔是9年——但两人都未曾夺冠，且各自的短板常在球队失利时被放大。然而，在主场赢下前两场、本有机会掌控这组首次联手的系列赛时，米切尔和哈登在第三和第四场表现拉胯。他们在多伦多的两场比赛中合力贡献了22次失误，哈登更是连续两场失误数多于进球数。
当然，猛龙队做出了一些调整，加强了对骑士队明星后场的压力，斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 在防守端表现极其出色。但克利夫兰若想走得更远，哈登和米切尔必须找到更高效、更有产出的方式，来驱散他们过往的季后赛心魔。—— Jamal Collier
西部联盟
(1) 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 3-0 领先 (8) 菲尼克斯太阳
雷霆队能再次完成首轮横扫吗？
不出所料，雷霆队已经基本锁定了分部半决赛的席位。目前唯一的悬念是俄克拉荷马城能否连续第三个赛季完成首轮横扫。主教练马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 在季后赛首轮还从未输过球，过去三年里，俄克拉荷马城在面对8号种子时保持着11胜0负的战绩。
太阳队本赛季的表现大大超出了预期，在大家普遍认为他们会把乐透签送给孟菲斯灰熊队的情况下闯入了季后赛。强烈的竞争自尊心是太阳队成功的关键，因此菲尼克斯将在第四场比赛中竭尽全力进行反击。—— Tim MacMahon
(2) 圣安东尼奥马刺 3-1 领先 (7) 波特兰开拓者
马刺队能在五场内解决波特兰吗？
圣安东尼奥需要尽快结束这组系列赛，以避免再次长途跋涉前往波特兰，并为后卫斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 争取时间来治疗困扰他们的手指伤势，迎接随后对阵明尼苏达或丹佛的第二轮系列赛。
圣安东尼奥会有动力在主场球迷面前解决战斗，毕竟自2017年以来，这里还没见证过系列赛的晋级战。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在第四场从脑震荡保护协议中复出，这对于让他找回季后赛的节奏和对抗强度至关重要。文班亚马在系列赛的防守端极具统治力，在他的干扰下，波特兰球员合计仅30投5中，只得到10分。
与此同时，老牌控卫德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 终于找到了他的季后赛节奏，刚刚打出了职业生涯第三场25+5+5的季后赛数据。—— 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
维克托·文班亚马砍下27分、12个篮板，并贡献7次盖帽和4次抢断，帮助圣安东尼奥在第四场比赛中逆转19分的分差击败开拓者。 (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
(6) 明尼苏达森林狼 3-1 领先 (3) 丹佛掘金
森林狼队是如何做到这样压制丹佛的？
依靠杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 的个人防守。麦克丹尼尔斯像影子一样贴着贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)，以至于丹佛教练大卫·阿德尔曼 (David Adelman) 一直在抱怨角色球员的掩护质量不够，无法帮这位掘金全明星控卫摆脱麦克丹尼尔斯的纠缠。
这导致穆雷在系列赛中投篮仅89投33中，效率极低——投篮命中率37%，三分命中率26.5%。与此同时，尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 在面对戈贝尔的高度和对抗时也无法挺身而出。约基奇在第四场比赛的第四节6投0中，使他在本系列赛的命中率降至反常的39.1%。（约基奇职业生涯命中率为56.1%，曾有一个赛季命中率高达63%。）
与此同时，森林狼队虽然处于晋级第二轮的绝佳位置，但却失去了因跟腱断裂报销的唐特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo)，且不确定安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 何时能归队，他在第四场比赛中遭遇了左膝骨挫伤。—— Anthony Slater
(4) 洛杉矶湖人 3-1 领先 (5) 休斯顿火箭
在第四场失利后，奥斯汀·里夫斯和卢卡·东契奇复出的紧迫性如何？
奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 在第三场和第四场赛前都被列为出战成疑，但由于左腹内斜肌2级拉伤，他尚未在系列赛中登场。火箭队那场重回系列赛悬念的压制性胜利，是否会迫使他提前复出？
“我认为最终运动员必须感到自信，”湖人队主教练JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick) 周日在被问及里夫斯复出的考虑因素时表示，“伤愈复出的最后一关总是心理层面的因素。”
如果里夫斯在第五场出战，距离他在对阵雷霆队时受伤将过去近一个月——考虑到消息人士告诉ESPN该伤病通常需要四到六周的康复期，这仍属于快速恢复。里夫斯的回归加上主场优势，是否足以帮助洛杉矶在五场内淘汰休斯顿？还是火箭队已经找到了能将系列赛拖入长盘决斗的方法？如果休斯顿能将系列赛延长到第六或第七场，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 是否有可能从左腿筋2级拉伤中复出？
雷迪克周日表示，球队目前没有关于东契奇复出时间表的更新。但根据雷迪克分享的进展——东契奇“今天能够在球场上进行少许移动，而之前大多是静止状态”——看起来他距离复出还很遥远。—— Dave McMenamin
自由市场行情观察
随着近54%的准自由球员出现在季后赛中，让我们来看看哪些球员在这个休赛期提升或损害了自己的身价：
行情看涨
阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu)，明尼苏达森林狼
CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum)，亚特兰大老鹰
我们正在见证季中交易如何影响季后赛，或者以多孙穆为例，如何成为系列赛爆发的催化剂。
在2月交易截止日从芝加哥公牛队加盟后，多孙穆在森林狼第四场的胜利中替补出场砍下43分，这是季后赛历史上替补球员的第二高分。整个系列赛，多孙穆场均贡献22.8分，投篮命中率64%，三分命中率52.9%。
多孙穆有资格在6月30日之前签署一份为期三年、价值5240万美元的提前续约合同。由于他是通过交易获得且拥有伯德权，明尼苏达被允许超过工资帽、奢侈税线和土豪线来续约这位后卫。森林狼队预计将低于第二土豪线2700万美元。
与此同时，34岁的麦科勒姆焕发了第二春。
在亚特兰大第四场输给纽约之前，麦科勒姆前三场比赛的得分总计位列老鹰队史季后赛第二。（麦科勒姆在系列赛中场均得到24.5分。）
作为一名完全自由球员，麦科勒姆可以在6月30日之前签署最高三年1.159亿美元的提前续约合同。凭借伯德权，亚特兰大可以超过工资帽与其续约。
行情看跌
杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，底特律活塞
佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson)，丹佛掘金
马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams)，菲尼克斯太阳
季后赛本应是杜伦、沃特森和威廉姆斯在今年夏天提升受限制自由球员身价的舞台。
杜伦入选了职业生涯首次全明星，并且是最佳阵容的候选人，但他的场均得分从常规赛的19.5分下降到了季后赛的9.0分。更重要的是，杜伦在禁区内场均仅得到6.7分，远低于常规赛的14.6分。
掘金队的沃特森和太阳队的威廉姆斯常规赛表现出色，但因伤未能参加季后赛。
在2月4日腿筋受伤前，沃特森场均得到14.9分（40场首发时场均17.3分），投篮命中率49.6%，三分命中率41.7%。沃特森的底角三分命中率为53%，在本赛季出场时间至少1000分钟的球员中排名全联盟第六。
威廉姆斯本赛季出战了职业生涯新高的60场比赛，在菲尼克斯二次进攻得分从全联盟第26位提升至第6位的过程中发挥了重要作用。
—— Bobby Marks
系列赛排名
首轮的一个主要主题是“均势”：16支球队中有15支已经赢下了至少一场比赛，且有5支下位球队已经取得了多场胜利。
因此，在首轮过半之际，让我们根据爆冷潜力对系列赛进行重新排名，从可能性最低到最高：
8. 雷霆 3, 太阳 0
无论哪支球队面对雷霆，都会是首轮所有下位种子中最艰难的。三场比赛过后，太阳爆冷看起来并不比系列赛开始前更有可能。菲尼克斯在任何一场比赛的下半场都从未领先过，而雷霆队在过去三年的季后赛首轮战绩为11胜0负。
7. 马刺 3, 开拓者 1
在第四场半场领先17分时，开拓者爆冷的概率曾一度上升。但随后圣安东尼奥在下半场打出了73-35的攻势，几乎终结了任何爆冷的可能。只要文班亚马保持健康，圣安东尼奥自3月1日以来仅输过一场球（加时赛惜败丹佛）。
6. 凯尔特人 3, 76人 1
尽管恩比德复出，但费城在周日的第四场比赛中完全不是波士顿的对手，凯尔特人以32分的分差轻松取胜。76人在这组系列赛中唯一的胜利源于他们投出了49%的三分命中率，而他们很难连续三场打出那样的表现。
佩顿·普里查德命中了波士顿全场24记三分中的6记，砍下32分；杰森·塔图姆贡献30分和11次助攻，帮助凯尔特人在第四场搅黄了乔尔·恩比德的复出战。 Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
5. 骑士 2, 猛龙 2
猛龙队证明了他们可以用进攻取胜，在第三场第四节轰下43分，将2分的领先变成了22分的大胜。他们也证明了自己可以用防守取胜，在第四场三分球仅30投4中（13%）的情况下，硬生生磨下了一场93-89的胜利。克利夫兰仍因天赋和主场优势被看好，但多伦多依然充满机会。
4. 尼克斯 2, 老鹰 2
在系列赛开始前，我预测尼克斯会在抢七中获胜，所以在前四场战平后，他们正处于这条轨道上。纽约仍应被看好晋级，因为他们的两场胜利合计赢了27分，而亚特兰大的两场胜利都仅以1分险胜。但老鹰队已经确定了一套由五名首发加乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 组成的强力六人核心，而尼克斯的轮换阵容仍不稳定——尤其是米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)，他在系列赛中场均仅得到7.3分。亚特兰大的爆冷机会绝对还在。
3. 魔术 2, 活塞 1
2003年，头号种子活塞队在首轮曾以1-3落后奥兰多，随后连赢三场逆转。今年他们可能需要类似的翻盘。魔术队不仅以2-1领先头号种子活塞，而且结果看起来并非侥幸。魔术队赢下的两场比赛实至名归，并掌控了系列赛的大部分时间；他们终于恢复了健康，看起来就像许多人本赛季预期的竞争者那样。奥兰多五名首发在系列赛中场均得分全部上双，而底特律只有三名首发做到这一点。
2. 森林狼 3, 掘金 1
一方面，森林狼队距离三年内第二次爆冷击败掘金仅差一场胜利。而掘金队在明尼苏达遭遇两场惨败后看起来毫无头绪：掘金的X因素阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 受伤了，而森林狼锁死了丹佛联盟第一的进攻。
但另一方面，明尼苏达必须在没有爱德华兹（第四场膝盖过度伸展，将缺席数周）和迪文琴佐（第四场跟腱断裂）的情况下拿到最后一场胜利。因此，森林狼因其领先优势被看好爆冷，但在失去整套首发后场的情况下，这绝非易事。
1. 湖人 3, 火战 1
尽管湖人是4号种子，火箭是5号种子，但这依然会被视为一次“爆冷”。博彩公司和专家此前因东契奇和里夫斯的伤病普遍看好休斯顿。但现在里夫斯即将复出，而火箭队的得分王凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 却受伤了，湖人只需在接下来的三次机会中赢下一场即可晋级。考虑到湖人的主场优势，他们现在是所有首轮下位球队中晋级概率最高的。
—— Zach Kram
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA playoffs: Key questions, ranking first-round series
2026 NBA playoffs: Key questions, ranking first-round series
It has been a little over a week since the start of the 2026 NBA playoffs, and the first-round series have not disappointed.
The Los Angeles Lakers failed to close their series against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, as the Rockets forced a Game 5 back to L.A. on Wednesday. The winner of that series will face the winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder-Phoenix Suns series, which could be decided Monday, with the defending champion Thunder up 3-0.
In the East, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons have struggled to find their rhythm against the No. 8-seeded Orlando Magic. Plus, the Cleveland Cavaliers-Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks-Atlanta Hawks series are tied at 2-2.
With some exciting Round 1 matchups still ahead, our NBA insiders answered the biggest questions surrounding each series. ESPN’s Bobby Marks broke down which free agents have raised or lowered their stock so far, and analyst Zach Kram ranked the series based on their upset potential.
Jump to:
Biggest questions: East | West
Ranking every series | Free agency stock watch
Eastern Conference
(8) Orlando Magic lead (1) Detroit Pistons 2-1
Can the Pistons win without Jalen Duren at his best?
The Magic have given the Pistons a taste of their own physicality, stifling defense and opportunistic offense. Outside of the seven-block first quarter and 30-3 third-quarter run that helped win Game 2 and the desperate fourth-quarter rally that fell just short in Game 3, the Pistons have not looked like the team that won 60 games this season.
One major reason is that All-Star big man Duren has been a relative nonfactor who has been outplayed by Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. In Game 3, Duren had five blocks but fouled out and finished with eight points, nine rebounds and just 3-for-10 shooting. This is a far cry from the 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 65% shooting he averaged during the regular season. Making matters worse, Carter had a huge game with 14 points and 17 rebounds, including eight offensive rebounds, in Game 3. He was such a problem for Duren and Isaiah Stewart that coach J.B Bickerstaff went to Paul Reed early in the third quarter for a spark.
Cade Cunningham needs all the help he can get. Bickerstaff, who, along with assistant Luke Walton, sat with Duren for an extended time after Friday’s practice, said Duren has not been able to get free on pick-and-rolls because of Orlando packing the paint. And the Magic have further neutralized Duren with multiple players collapsing on him at times. Without Duren at his All-Star best, the Pistons will have a hard time establishing superiority in the paint on both sides of the ball. – Ohm Youngmisuk
(2) Boston Celtics lead (7) Philadelphia 76ers 3-1
Is this series over?
It certainly seems like it. Boston has controlled the action throughout this series, generating tons of 3s. And outside of Game 2’s 13-for-50 showing from long range, the Celtics are knocking them down. While Sunday’s return of Joel Embiid, less than three weeks after an emergency appendectomy, was a great story, it didn’t mask the overall deficit facing Philadelphia. The Celtics have created a math problem the 76ers have struggled to solve.
Game 3, in particular, seemed like the moment when things swung away from Philadelphia. That was a pitched battle that either team could win, only for Boston to pull it out with remarkable shotmaking by Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard. Barring a massive change in fortunes, the Celtics should soon be headed to the East semifinals for the ninth time in 10 years. – Tim Bontemps
(3) New York Knicks are tied with (6) Atlanta Hawks 2-2
Have the Knicks unlocked Karl-Anthony Towns after an up-and-down season?
If Game 4 is any indication, perhaps so. Towns was used in a way we hadn’t seen before, at least not en masse. He was operating from the high post, dishing and diming (10 assists) to OG Anunoby for easy buckets.
But the move didn’t seem intentional – at least by the way Mike Brown talked about it postgame – as if it was almost by happenstance as opposed to a change in mindset that maximized Towns. When he’s on, it lessens the Knicks’ dependency on Jalen Brunson’s offense.
Through four games of the series, Towns’ production exceeds his career playoff numbers. Should he get even more touches this series? The never-ending question remains. – Vincent Goodwill
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers are tied with (5) Toronto Raptors 2-2
How will James Harden and Donovan Mitchell respond?
Harden and Mitchell entered this postseason ready to rewrite narratives. Neither star has missed the postseason – 17 consecutive years in Harden’s case and nine years for Mitchell – but neither has won a championship, with the shortcomings of each often highlighted during their respective teams’ failures. Yet, with a chance to seize control of their first playoff series together after winning the first two games at home, Mitchell and Harden turned in duds in Games 3 and 4. They combined for 22 turnovers during the two games in Toronto, and Harden has finished with more turnovers than made field goals in two straight games.
Sure, the Raptors have made some adjustments to turn up the pressure on the Cavs’ star backcourt and Scottie Barnes has been excellent defensively. But for Cleveland to go on a deep run, Harden and Mitchell need to find ways to be more efficient and productive to exorcise their previous postseason demons. – Jamal Collier
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder lead (8) Phoenix Suns 3-0
Can the Thunder get another first-round sweep?
To the surprise of nobody, the Thunder have essentially claimed their spot in the conference semifinals. The only remaining question is whether Oklahoma City can complete a first-round sweep for the third straight season. Coach Mark Daigneault has yet to lose a game in the first round, as Oklahoma City has an 11-0 record against 8-seeds over the past three years.
The Suns have significantly exceeded expectations this season, earning a playoff spot when it was all but assumed they’d be sending a lottery pick to the Memphis Grizzlies. Intense competitive pride has been a big part of the Suns’ success, so Phoenix will do all it can to put up a fight in Game 4. – Tim MacMahon
(2) San Antonio Spurs lead (7) Portland Trail Blazers 3-1
Can the Spurs eliminate Portland in five games?
San Antonio needs to finish this series if it wants to avoid another long trip to Portland and buy time to heal some nagging thumb injuries to guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper before a second-round series against Minnesota or Denver.
San Antonio will be motivated to handle business in front of its home crowd, which hasn’t seen a series-clinching win since 2017. Victor Wembanyama’s return from concussion protocol for Game 4 was important for getting him back into the flow and physicality of postseason basketball. Wembanyama has been dominant defensively in this series, limiting Portland to 5-of-30 shooting and just 10 points whenever he’s contesting a shot.
Meanwhile, veteran point guard De’Aaron Fox is finally finding his playoff groove, coming off just his third career postseason outing with a 25-5-5 line. – Michael C. Wright
Victor Wembanyama logged seven blocks and four steals to go with 27 points and 12 rebounds to help San Antonio rally from a 19-point deficit to defeat the Trail Blazers in Game 4. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves lead (3) Denver Nuggets 3-1
How are the Timberwolves doing this to Denver?
Individual defense from Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. McDaniels has been draped all over Jamal Murray to the degree that Denver coach David Adelman has been complaining about the lack of physical screen setting from his role players, who haven’t been able to keep McDaniels off the Nuggets’ All-Star guard.
It has resulted in an inefficient 33-of-89 shooting series from Murray – 37% overall and 26.5% on 3s. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to pick up the slack against the length and physicality of Gobert. Jokic missed all six of his fourth-quarter shots in Game 4, dropping his series percentage to an uncharacteristic 39.1%. (Jokic is a career 56.1% converter who once made 63% of his shots in a season.)
The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are in a prime position to make the second round but lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles and don’t know when they’ll get Anthony Edwards back after he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee during Game 4. – Anthony Slater
(4) Los Angeles Lakers lead (5) Houston Rockets 3-1
What is the urgency for Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic to return after the Lakers’ defeat in Game 4?
After Reaves was upgraded to questionable before Game 3 and again going into Game 4 but has yet to appear in the series as he recovers from a Grade 2 left oblique strain, will the Rockets’ dominant victory to get back in the series push him back into the lineup?
“I think ultimately the athlete has to feel confidence,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said Sunday when asked what components are being considered in Reaves’ return. “And that’s always the final hurdle coming back from an injury, is the psychological component of it.”
Should Reaves play in Game 5, it would be a day shy of a month since he suffered the injury against the Thunder – still a rapid recovery considering the rehabilitation window of four to six weeks that sources told ESPN the injury would require. Would Reaves’ presence, combined with the home crowd, be enough to help L.A. eliminate Houston in five, or have the Rockets found something that could make the series go the distance? And if Houston can extend the series to a Game 6 or 7, is there any possibility that Doncic can return from his Grade 2 left hamstring strain?
Redick said Sunday that there is no update from the team on Doncic’s return timeline, which is currently unknown. But based on the incremental progress Redick shared Sunday – that Doncic “was able to move a little bit today on the court, which, most of the stuff [before] had been standstill” – it certainly doesn’t sound like he is close. – Dave McMenamin
Free agency stock watch
With nearly 54% of upcoming free agents appearing in the playoffs, let’s take a look at players who have improved or hurt their stock this offseason:
Stock up
Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota Timberwolves
CJ McCollum, Atlanta Hawks
We are seeing how a midseason trade can impact the playoffs, or, in the case of Dosunmu, become the catalyst for a breakout series.
Acquired from the Chicago Bulls at the February deadline, Dosunmu scored 43 points off the bench in the Wolves’ Game 4 win, the second most by a reserve in playoff history. For the series, Dosunmu is averaging 22.8 points on 64% shooting from the field and 52.9% from 3.
Dosunmu is eligible to sign a three-year, $52.4 million extension before June 30. Because he was acquired in a trade and has Bird rights, Minnesota is allowed to exceed the cap, luxury tax and apron to re-sign the guard. The Timberwolves are projected to be $27 million below the second apron.
The 34-year-old McCollum, meanwhile, has turned back the clock.
Before Atlanta’s Game 4 loss to New York, McCollum had scored the second-most points through three games in Hawks playoff history. (McCollum is averaging 24.5 points in the series.)
McCollum, an unrestricted free agent, can sign up to a three-year, $115.9 million extension through June 30. Atlanta can re-sign him and exceed the cap because of his Bird rights.
Stock down
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
The playoffs should have been where Duren, Watson and Williams improved their restricted free agent standing this summer.
Duren appeared in his first All-Star Game and is a candidate for All-NBA, but he has seen his scoring decrease from 19.5 points per game in the regular season to 9.0 in the playoffs. More importantly, Duren is averaging only 6.7 points in the paint, down from 14.6 during the regular season.
The Nuggets’ Watson and the Suns’ Williams had strong regular seasons but have not played in the playoffs because of injuries.
Before injuring his hamstring Feb. 4, Watson was averaging 14.9 points (17.3 in 40 starts) while shooting 49.6% from the field and 41.7% on 3s. Watson shot 53% on corner 3s, sixth in the NBA this season among players with at least 1,000 minutes.
Williams appeared in a career-high 60 games this season and played a significant role in Phoenix’s improvement from 26th to sixth in second-chance points.
– Bobby Marks
Where every series ranks
One major theme of the first round is parity: Fifteen of the 16 teams have won at least one game, and five of the underdogs already have multiple wins.
So, at this midway point of the first round, let’s rerank the series by their upset potential, from the lowest probability for a surprise to the highest:
8. Thunder 3, Suns 0
Whichever team faced the Thunder was always going to have the toughest time of any lower seed in the first round, and through three games, a Suns upset doesn’t seem any more likely than when the series began. Phoenix hasn’t led in the second half of any game, and the Thunder are now 11-0 in the first round in the past three seasons.
7. Spurs 3, Trail Blazers 1
With a 17-point lead at halftime of Game 4, the Trail Blazers’ odds of an upset were ticking up. And then San Antonio outscored Portland 73-35 in the second half, all but ending any chance of an upset bid. With Victor Wembanyama healthy, San Antonio has just one loss since March 1 (to Denver in an overtime classic).
6. Celtics 3, 76ers 1
Despite Joel Embiid’s return, Philadelphia was no match for Boston in Game 4 on Sunday, as the Celtics cruised to a 32-point win. The 76ers’ only win in this series came when they shot 49% on 3-pointers, and they’d be hard-pressed to turn in that kind of performance for three more games in a row.
Payton Pritchard made six of Boston’s 24 3-pointers and scored 32 points and Jayson Tatum had 30 points and 11 assists to help the Celtics spoil Joel Embiid’s return in Game 4. Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
5. Cavaliers 2, Raptors 2
The Raptors proved they could win with offense, scoring 43 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 to turn a two-point lead into a comfortable 22-point victory. And they proved they could win with defense, grinding out a 93-89 victory in Game 4 despite shooting just 4-for-30 (13%) on 3-pointers. Cleveland is still favored because of its talent and home-court advantage, but Toronto is very much alive.
4. Knicks 2, Hawks 2
Before this series began, I picked the Knicks to win in seven, so they’re right on track for that result after splitting the first four games. New York should still be favored to advance, as its two wins were by a combined 27 points, while Atlanta’s victories were each by a single point. But the Hawks have settled on a strong six-man core, in their five starters plus Jonathan Kuminga, while the Knicks’ rotation remains unsettled – particularly with regard to Mikal Bridges, who has averaged just 7.3 points in the series. Atlanta’s upset chance is definitely still in play.
3. Magic 2, Pistons 1
In 2003, the top-seeded Pistons fell behind 3-1 in the first round against Orlando before staving off the upset with three consecutive wins. They might need a similar comeback this year. Not only do the Magic have a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded Pistons, but the results don’t look like a fluke. The Magic have earned their two wins and controlled most of the series; they’re finally healthy and looking like the contenders so many expected them to be this season. All five Orlando starters are averaging double-digit points in this series, while only three of Detroit’s are.
2. Timberwolves 3, Nuggets 1
On the one hand, the Timberwolves are just one win from their second upset of the Nuggets in three years. And the Nuggets look lost after two noncompetitive losses in Minnesota: Nuggets X factor Aaron Gordon is hurt, and the Wolves have bottled up Denver’s league-best offense.
But on the other hand, Minnesota will have to get that last win without Anthony Edwards, who’s out for multiple weeks after hyperextending his knee in Game 4, and without Donte DiVincenzo, who tore an Achilles in Game 4. So Minnesota is favored to pull off the upset, just because of its position in the series, but it won’t be easy without the team’s entire starting backcourt.
1. Lakers 3, Rockets 1
Although the Lakers are the No. 4 seed and the Rockets are the No. 5 seed, this would still register as an upset. Oddsmakers and pundits largely expected a Houston win in this series because of injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. But now Reaves is approaching a comeback while Houston’s leading scorer, Kevin Durant, is hurt, and the Lakers need just one more win in three tries to advance. Factor in the Lakers’ home-court advantage, and they now have the best odds of any first-round underdog.
– Zach Kram
By NBA insiders, via ESPN