By Tim Bontemps, Vincent Goodwill, 2026-05-06 19:32:00
在经历了动荡的第一轮——包括三场抢七大战、两次惊天冷门以及一些关键伤病之后，四组NBA分区半决赛均已拉开帷幕。
目前仅剩八支球队仍在为拉里·奥布莱恩杯而战，这正是审视当前局势的绝佳时机。我们将根据各支竞争者在季后赛尘埃落定后捧起奖杯的可能性，对他们进行排名。
以下是我们对这八支球队的分析，涵盖了在第二轮首战过后，支持和看衰各队的理由。
(注：2026年NBA夺冠概率由 ESPN Analytics 提供。)
1. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
第一轮： 4-0 击败太阳
分区半决赛： 1-0 领先湖人
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 48.8%
支持理由：
拥有夺冠经验、极佳的阵容深度、强悍的防守、极有可能蝉联MVP的球星，以及在余下季后赛中拥有的全部主场优势，这些条件如何？雷霆队是自2017-18赛季的金州勇士队以来，处境最好的卫冕冠军追求者。雷霆可以打大阵容，前场拥有切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和以赛亚·哈滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)；他们也可以打小阵容，凭借一群极具威胁的后卫在半场防守和制造失误后的攻防转换中大杀四方。此外，他们还拥有一位敢于在季后赛系列赛中大胆尝试阵容的主教练马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault)。
不利因素：
那个身高7英尺4英寸的战术破坏者维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 以及他在35号州际公路另一端的队友们。圣安东尼奥马刺在本赛季与雷霆的五次交手中赢下了四场，展现出的高度和运动能力能给雷霆制造巨大麻烦。但如果雷霆能从与马刺的对决中突围——周一马刺在对阵森林狼的首战中失利，让西部决赛上演重量级对决的可能性稍稍降低——那么除了灾难性的伤病，应该没有什么能阻挡雷霆卫冕。
2. 圣安东尼奥马刺
第一轮： 4-1 击败开拓者
分区半决赛： 0-1 落后森林狼
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 13.5%
支持理由：
谁说年轻的马刺在获得成功前必须先栽跟头？文班亚马在缺席一场比赛后迅速找回状态，以贯穿全季的那种恐怖统治力回归。开拓者在第一轮试图对文班亚马施加身体对抗，但他对此不屑一顾，尽管因脑震荡错过了第二场的大部分时间和第三场的全部比赛，他场均仍能贡献4次盖帽。随着斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 作为冉冉升起的第三得分点投出了43.8%的三分命中率，马刺为何不能实现跳跃式发展？是的，阵容不整的明尼苏达在周一偷走了系列赛首战，震惊了许多人，但想要撼动马刺在这个榜单上的位置，还需要更多表现。
不利因素：
在被击败之前，冠军永远是冠军。如果雷霆后卫杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 保持健康，本赛季之前马刺对阵雷霆的交锋记录就可以抛诸脑后了。此外，马刺的投篮能否维持？明尼苏达的防守在第一轮将丹佛掘金的三分命中率限制在了30%，而森林狼在周一也将马刺的三分限制在了仅28%（36投10中），文班亚马和德阿伦·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 合计12投0中。俄克拉荷马城在首轮对阵菲尼克斯太阳时，也仅让对手投出了34%的三分命中率。马刺并不十分依赖三分球，但这已成为他们本赛季复兴的重要平衡器。
3. 纽约尼克斯
第一轮： 4-2 击败老鹰
分区半决赛： 1-0 领先费城
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 19.3%
支持理由：
尼克斯在淘汰亚特兰大老鹰的最后三场胜利中，展现出了全赛季最强的凝聚力。虽然像第六场那样的防守强度难以持久，但对阵费城的系列赛揭幕战表明，这种状态是可以延续的。
在进攻端，如果OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 能保持这种火热的得分势头——他在过去三场比赛中投篮合计30投23中——且卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 真正被激活，纽约将在东部四强中占据主动。
不利因素：
对位问题。费城在首战惨败后曾对阵波士顿做出过很好的调整，他们会成为尼克斯的克星吗？乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 可能会手感爆发并改变纽约的防守布局。退一步说，尼克斯本是为了在季后赛击败波士顿而组建的。虽然那个主要障碍已被扫除，但费城是一个变数，尤其是马克西与VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 组成的活力后场。在整个系列赛或潜在的东部决赛对阵底特律的比赛中，纽约将无法在防守端藏起杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)。
4. 底特律活塞
第一轮： 4-3 击败魔术
分区半决赛： 1-0 领先骑士
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 17.2%
支持理由：
包括活塞在内，防守效率排名前八的球队中有六支进入了分区半决赛，而只有俄克拉荷马城的防守比底特律更好。凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 在对阵奥兰多的系列赛中找回了全明星级别的表现，证明了他能够快速处理球、做出调整并拥抱大场面。奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 在本次季后赛中也正进化为现象级的防守者。如果奥兰多已经是底特律将面对的最艰苦的身体对抗呢？如果这个版本的托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)——这位老将前锋在第一轮场均贡献21.6分，比常规赛高出8分多——能在五月和六月持续发挥，底特律可能会在接下来的六周里一路横冲直撞。
不利因素：
活塞虽然走到了这一步，但很难忘记他们对阵奥兰多的前四场比赛。三分命中率低于30%，神射手邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson) 无法创造出高质量的出手机会且在防守端被针对，那场面并不好看。只有坎宁安一个被证明过的得分点可能会拖累他们，尤其是如果中锋杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 的进攻在首轮场均仅得10.6分后无法反弹。与此同时，坎宁安仍在从肺部穿孔中恢复。底特律想要进入总决赛，需要太多的因素完美契合，任何细微的差错都可能导致毁灭。
5. 明尼苏达森林狼
第一轮： 4-2 击败掘金
分区半决赛： 1-0 领先马刺
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 0.4%
支持理由：
明尼苏达在第六场战胜丹佛的非凡胜利证明了森林狼拥有惊人的韧性。鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 刚刚打出了他名人堂生涯中或许最出色的一个系列赛，成功限制了三届MVP尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)。如果说有人能在禁区内与文班亚马一搏，那一定是这位四届年度最佳防守球员。与此同时，安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 在上一轮遭遇膝盖过度伸展后以惊人的速度回归，并在首战的关键时刻表现出色。森林狼还拥有过去两年连续打进分区决赛的经验。他们的第二轮对手圣安东尼奥在主场丢掉首战后，肯定感受到了这种经验上的劣势。
不利因素：
尽管偷走了首战胜利，但如果森林狼的伤病少一些，他们的排名会更高。爱德华兹在首战回归，但第一轮表现突出的阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 仍因小腿拉伤缺阵，唐特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 则因右脚跟腱断裂赛季报销。虽然明尼苏达凭借末节的神勇表现赢下了首战，但在整个系列赛中面对文班亚马和马刺深度极高、运动能力出众的后卫轮换，要保持这种状态并非易事。
6. 费城76人
第一轮： 4-3 击败波士顿
分区半决赛： 0-1 落后纽约
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 0.1%
支持理由：
76人是一支极具不确定性的球队。当全员健康且运转良好时——不计周一被纽约痛击的首战——费城拥有极高的上限。马克西和恩比德的挡拆组合对任何球队来说都是难以阻挡的；保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 看起来已经找回了全明星状态；艾奇库姆继续证明他不惧怕大场面；而凯利·乌布雷 (Kelly Oubre Jr.) 和昆汀·格莱姆斯 (Quentin Grimes) 合计在侧翼为费城提供了每场48分钟的高质量产出。纸面上拥有这种等级天赋和多样性的球队并不多。76人还拥有尼克·纳斯 (Nick Nurse)，他是除雷霆的戴格诺特之外，目前仅剩的唯一一位冠军主帅。
不利因素：
从何说起？最显而易见的是费城球星脆弱的健康状况。恩比德和乔治能健康地度过接下来的六周吗？历史经验告诉我们，这是一个冒险的赌注。对于恩比德来说尤其如此，他距离紧急阑尾切除手术还不到一个月，这是这位前MVP在季后赛征程中遇到的最新健康问题。
而且在过去几个季后赛中，这支球队经常在重大关头崩盘。在波士顿的第七场比赛差一点就成了最新的例子，当时他们在第三节末领先18分，却险些被逆转。
7. 克利夫兰骑士
第一轮： 4-3 击败猛龙
分区半决赛： 0-1 落后底特律
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 0.4%
支持理由：
克利夫兰的阵容就是为季后赛成功而打造的。拥有詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 和多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，骑士拥有一对能够打出爆发表现的后场组合。在内线，埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 是两名全能大个子，能够胜任各种防守任务，并提供足够的进攻火力来辅佐后卫。此外，萨姆·梅里尔 (Sam Merrill)、马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus) 和迪恩·韦德 (Dean Wade) 能够拉开空间，韦德还可以作为防守对方强力侧翼的坚实屏障。
不利因素：
当骑士在对阵阵容残缺的多伦多猛龙——布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 缺席了最后两场多比赛，伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 完全没打——的七场大战中艰难过关时，哈登和米切尔的表现随着系列赛的进行而大幅下滑。现在，底特律展现出的身体对抗强度正是克利夫兰一直以来所畏惧的。骑士拥有分区冠军的上限，但目前很难相信他们能达到那个高度。在首战表现糟糕后，情况依然如此——骑士在全场落后的情况下曾有机会反超，却在最后五分钟追平比分后，于收官阶段崩盘。
8. 洛杉矶湖人
第一轮： 4-2 击败火箭
分区半决赛： 0-1 落后雷霆
2026年NBA夺冠概率： 0.3%
支持理由：
勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 在职业生涯的这个阶段已经打破了所有预期，所以他为什么不能征服这座大山呢？或者至少让湖人坚持到奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 完全康复，以及卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 离伤愈复出更近一步？在对阵休斯顿火箭时，他们是更强硬的一方，并在比赛末段展现了执行力，延续了全赛季在关键时刻的高效。如果第一轮中马库斯·斯玛特 (Marcus Smart)、卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard) 和八村垒 (Rui Hachimura) 的三分手感（均在40%以上）能够延续，这将为湖人的突击手们提供充足的空间。这也将给任何勒布朗领导的季后赛球队带来希望。
不利因素：
他们正在对抗“怪物军团”——而且不是重启版的那种。雷霆得到了充分休息，而且随着威廉姆斯的康复，他们理应更加健康。要求詹姆斯在面对一支极少犯错的雷霆队时重复他第一轮的表现，似乎有些不太可能。雷霆在对阵湖人的交锋中占据绝对优势，即使奇迹发生，马刺还在后面等着。常识告诉我们，洛杉矶的征程将止步于此。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s
NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s
All four NBA conference semifinals are underway after a turbulent first round that featured three Game 7s, two massive upsets and some key injuries.
With eight teams left vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it’s a perfect opportunity to take stock of the field as it currently stands and rank those contenders on their likelihood to come away with the hardware when the postseason is all said and done.
Here’s our take, with the case for and against each of the eight teams as the second round is now one game in across the board.
(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy ESPN Analytics.)
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
First round: Defeated PHX 4-0
Conf. semis: Lead LAL 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 48.8%
The case for:
How about championship experience, depth for days, a ferocious defense, the likely two-time MVP and home-court advantage throughout the rest of the playoffs? OKC is the best-positioned team since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18 to chase a repeat title. The Thunder can play big, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein up front. They can play small, with a menacing fleet of guards wreaking havoc in half-court defense and in transition when they force turnovers. And they have a coach in Mark Daigneault who isn’t afraid to experiment with lineups throughout a playoff series.
The case against:
That 7-foot-4 game-plan wrecker Victor Wembanyama and his teammates down Interstate 35. San Antonio won four of five meetings with OKC this season, showcasing a length and athleticism that can give the Thunder problems. But if OKC can survive a San Antonio matchup – the potential of a heavyweight West finals took a small hit when the Spurs dropped Game 1 on Monday against the Timberwolves – nothing outside of catastrophic injury luck should stand in the way of a Thunder repeat.
2. San Antonio Spurs
First round: Defeated POR 4-1
Conf. semis: Trail MIN 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 13.5%
The case for:
Who says the young Spurs have to fall on their faces before earning success? Wembanyama did just that and bounced back after a game absence, returning with the same terrifying force he showed through the entire season. The Trail Blazers tried physicality on Wembanyama in the first round, but he shook it off and averaged four blocks despite missing most of Game 2 and all of Game 3 because of a concussion. And with Stephon Castle boasting 43.8% shooting from 3 as an emerging third scorer, why can’t the Spurs skip a few steps? Yes, short-handed Minnesota shocked many to steal Monday’s Game 1, but it will take more to move San Antonio from this spot.
The case against:
The champs are the champs until someone knocks them off, and if Thunder guard Jalen Williams is healthy, throw this season’s previous Spurs-Thunder showdowns out the window. But can San Antonio’s shooting hold up? Minnesota’s defense suffocated the Denver Nuggets to the tune of 30% from the 3-point line in the first round, and the Timberwolves held the Spurs to just 28% (10-for-36) from 3 on Monday, with Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox combining for an 0-for-12 night. Oklahoma City allowed just 34% in the first round against the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs don’t rely much on the 3-point shot, but it has become an equalizer that has helped their resurgence through the season.
3. New York Knicks
First round: Defeated ATL 4-2
Conf. semis: Lead PHI 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 19.3%
The case for:
The Knicks played as cohesively as they have all season in the final three wins to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks. And though defending the way they did in Game 6 is unsustainable, the series opener against Philadelphia showed it could carry over.
Offensively, if OG Anunoby can keep up this torrid scoring – he has gone 23-for-30 from the field over his past three games – and Karl-Anthony Towns is truly unlocked, New York will be in the driver’s seat among the East’s final four teams.
The case against:
Matchups. Could Philadelphia, which adjusted well against Boston after a Game 1 rout, become the Knicks’ kryptonite? Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey could catch fire and shift New York’s defense. If nothing else, the Knicks were built to beat Boston in these playoffs. That major roadblock was removed, but Philadelphia is a bit of a wild card, especially the dynamic Maxey-VJ Edgecombe backcourt. New York won’t be able to hide Jalen Brunson on defense all series long or in a potential East finals showdown with Detroit.
4. Detroit Pistons
First round: Defeated ORL 4-3
Conf. semis: Lead CLE 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 17.2%
The case for:
Including the Pistons, six of the top eight teams in defensive rating are in the conference semifinals, and only Oklahoma City is better than Detroit. Cade Cunningham finding his All-NBA game in the Orlando series shows he can process quickly, adjust and embrace the moment. Ausar Thompson is also evolving into a generational defender during these playoffs. What if Orlando was the toughest physical matchup Detroit will face? And if this version of Tobias Harris – the veteran forward averaged 21.6 points in the first round, more than eight better than during the regular season – sticks around for May and June, Detroit could bully its way through the next six weeks.
The case against:
The Pistons got here, but it’s difficult to forget the first four games against Orlando. Shooting under 30% from 3, with sharpshooter Duncan Robinson being unable to create space for quality looks and being targeted on defense, was not a pretty sight. Having Cunningham as the one proven scorer could catch up to them, especially if center Jalen Duren’s offense doesn’t bounce back after averaging just 10.6 points in the first round. Cunningham, meanwhile, is still recovering from a punctured lung. So much has to align for Detroit to get to the Finals. The slightest slip could spell doom.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
First round: Defeated DEN 4-2
Conf. semis: Lead SA 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%
The case for:
Minnesota’s remarkable victory over Denver in Game 6 proves that the Timberwolves are incredibly resilient. Rudy Gobert is coming off perhaps the best series of his Hall of Fame career, slowing down three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If there’s anyone who can give Wembanyama a battle in the paint, it’s Gobert, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Anthony Edwards, meanwhile, played clutch minutes in Game 1 after a stunningly fast return from a hyperextended knee he sustained last round. The Wolves also have the experience of back-to-back conference finals appearances the past two years. Their second-round opponent, San Antonio, is surely feeling that disadvantage after dropping Game 1 at home.
The case against:
The Wolves, despite stealing Game 1, would be ranked higher if they had fewer injuries. Edwards returned in Game 1, but first-round standout Ayo Dosunmu remained sidelined by a calf strain and Donte DiVincenzo is out for the postseason because of a torn right Achilles. Though Minnesota won Game 1 behind some incredible play down the stretch, keeping that up over an entire series is a tall order against Wembanyama and the Spurs’ deep, athletic guard rotation.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
First round: Defeated BOS 4-3
Conf. semis: Trail NYK 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.1%
The case for:
The 76ers are the ultimate variance team. When fully healthy and operational – not counting Monday’s Game 1 drubbing by New York – Philly has had an incredibly high ceiling. The pick-and-roll combination of Maxey and Embiid is a handful for any team to stop; Paul George looks as if he has returned to his All-Star form; Edgecombe continues to prove he’s not afraid of big moments; and Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes have combined to give Philadelphia 48 quality minutes per game on the wing. There aren’t many teams with that level of on-paper talent and versatility. The 76ers also have Nick Nurse, the only championship-winning coach remaining in the field besides OKC’s Daigneault.
The case against:
Where to start? The most obvious is the tenuous health of Philadelphia’s stars. Can Embiid and George make it through the next six weeks healthy? History would show that’s a dicey proposition. That’s especially true for Embiid, who is less than a month removed from an emergency appendectomy, the latest health issue to impact a postseason run for the former MVP.
And often during the team’s past few postseasons, the bottom has fallen out in big situations. Game 7 in Boston nearly became the latest example, when an 18-point, late-third-quarter lead nearly evaporated.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
First round: Defeated TOR 4-3
Conf. semis: Trail DET 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%
The case for:
Cleveland’s roster was built for playoff success. In James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs have an explosive backcourt capable of huge games. In Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs have two versatile big men who can handle a variety of defensive assignments and provide enough offense to complement the guards. And Sam Merrill, Max Strus and Dean Wade can space the court, with Wade slotting in as a stout defender against the opponent’s bigger wings.
The case against:
As the Cavs wheezed through a seven-game triumph against the short-handed Toronto Raptors – Brandon Ingram sat out the final two-plus games and Immanuel Quickley didn’t play at all – Harden and Mitchell struggled plenty as the series progressed. Now, Detroit presents a level of physicality that Cleveland has struggled with. The Cavs have a conference championship ceiling, but right now it’s hard to believe they can reach it. That remains the case after a rough performance in Game 1 in which Cleveland had a chance to steal the game after trailing for all of it, only to falter in the closing minutes after tying the score with five minutes left.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
First round: Defeated HOU 4-2
Conf. semis: Trail OKC 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.3%
The case for:
LeBron James has defied every expectation at this stage of his career, so why couldn’t he conquer this mountain? Or at least keep the Lakers upright long enough for Austin Reaves to recover fully and for Luka Doncic to inch closer to a return from his hamstring injury? They were the tougher team against the Houston Rockets and executed late in games to continue their seasonlong efficiency in the clutch. If the first-round 3-point shooting of Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura (all 40% or better) carries over, it gives the Lakers’ drivers plenty of space. It also would give any LeBron-led playoff team some hope.
The case against:
They’re playing the “Monstars” – and not the rebooted version. The Thunder are rested and presumably are healthier with Williams on the mend. Asking James to repeat his first-round performance against a Thunder team that rarely beats itself seems a bit impossible. The Thunder have dominated the matchups against the Lakers, and even if a miracle happens, the Spurs are waiting. Common sense says L.A.'s run ends here.
By Tim Bontemps, Vincent Goodwill, via ESPN