By NBA Insiders | ESPN, 2026-03-30 18:50:00
NBA季后赛还有两周就要开打了，季后赛的版图也已初具规模。
在东部，底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons) 已经锁定了季后赛席位，并有望夺得联盟头号种子的位置。在西部，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 带领圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) 首次闯入季后赛，而排名略高于马刺队的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 则希望实现卫冕。
雷霆队会成为阻碍马刺队晋级总决赛的绊脚石吗？归根结底，这将取决于每支球队是否能遇到合适——或糟糕——的系列赛对手。尽管这些争冠球队在分区竞争中脱颖而出，但每支球队都拥有一个可能导致其季后赛崩盘的“氪星”（致命弱点）。
我们的内部专家评估了前10名总决赛有力竞争者的最大弱点——包括替补产出、三分球投射等——并分析了这些弱点在深远的季后赛征程中可能产生的影响。随后，ESPN分析师扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 选出了最能利用这些弱点的对手。
（注：每支球队的季后赛概率根据 ESPN 的篮球实力指数 BPI 得出。）
跳转至球队：
东部： BOS | CLE | DET | NYK
西部： DEN | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
东部联盟
第1名：底特律活塞队（已锁定季后赛席位）
晋级东部半决赛概率： 77.6%
晋级总决赛概率： 30.6%
氪星： 三分球投射
你无法忽视这一点：三分球是当今 NBA 的“大杀器”，而活塞队在这方面储备不足。即便上赛季有马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley) 和小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 拉开空间，他们的三分表现仍处于联盟后三分之一。本赛季，他们的三分出手数排在第29位，命中数排在第28位。他们如此依赖防守带动进攻以及凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 在半场进攻中的卓越才华，以至于很容易发现一个软肋：东部的其他三支竞争对手——尼克斯、凯尔特人和黄蜂——的三分命中数均位列联盟前十。
凯文·赫尔特 (Kevin Huerter) 能否迅速适应并产生影响？邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson) 能否通过跑动创造出空位机会？活塞队在了解自身弱点的情况下挺过了常规赛，但5月和6月的季后赛完全是另一个赛季。 —— 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
应避开的对手： 波士顿凯尔特人队和纽约尼克斯队
凯尔特人和尼克斯都拥有联盟前五的防守，其防守体系旨在封锁禁区并迫使对手在远端出手。在所有季后赛球队中，这两支球队迫使对手投三分球的比例最高，对手45%的出手来自远距离。但如果活塞队的阵容配置意味着他们无法利用波士顿和纽约自然让出的投篮机会，那么对阵这两支东部劲旅的系列赛对底特律的进攻来说将是一场苦战。 —— 扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)
第2名：波士顿凯尔特人队（已锁定季后赛席位）
晋级东部半决赛概率： 72%
晋级总决赛概率： 17.4%
氪星： 快攻得分
鉴于季后赛节奏总是会慢下来这一长期事实，快攻得分问题反而是最容易处理的问题。凯尔特人队的场均快攻得分（11.4分）排名垫底，波士顿希望杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的回归最终能缓解任何进攻问题。到目前为止，塔图姆的表现虽有起伏，但总体而言，看到他在遭遇跟腱断裂后不到一年便重返赛场，并立即找到为胜利做贡献的方式，是非常令人鼓舞的。此外，波士顿还将指望他们在东部巨大的季后赛经验优势能发挥作用。 —— 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)
应避开的对手： 底特律活塞队
如果凯尔特人无法在转换进攻中得分，那么他们就需要最大限度地利用半场进攻机会。但活塞队可能会让这变得困难，因为根据 Cleaning the Glass 的数据，活塞队拥有东部迄今为止最好的半场防守；全联盟只有雷霆队的半场防守更胜一筹。活塞队的侧翼球员是否能在整个系列赛中胜任防守塔图姆和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 的重任仍有待观察——两队之前的四次交锋均发生在塔图姆回归之前——但至少，他们会迫使波士顿在每一次进攻中都陷入肉搏战。 —— 克拉姆
第3名：纽约尼克斯队
晋级东部半决赛概率： 75.7%
晋级总决赛概率： 20.7%
氪星： 替补得分
看看尼克斯首发球员的场均出场时间，再对比上赛季，你会感到惊讶：只有杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 的场均35分钟与上赛季持平。尽管如此，由于主帅迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的球队极度依赖首发球员的产出，纽约的替补席场均仅贡献31.2分，排名联盟第28位。
米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 正处于长期的低迷期。卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 经常陷入舆论压力。在替补席上，兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 有过高光时刻（三分命中率39%），乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 表现不稳定，而米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 并不是一个稳定的得分贡献者。迈尔斯·麦克布莱德 (Miles McBride) 正在从疝气手术中恢复，可能在季后赛复出，但布朗在进攻端真正能依赖的备选方案还有谁呢？ —— 古德威尔
应避开的对手： 迈阿密热火队
热火队最适合利用纽约替补得分不足的弱点，原因有二。首先，迈阿密在所有胜率过半的球队中替补得分最高，场均达到42.9分，这意味着由年度最佳第六人有力竞争者小哈梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.) 领衔的热火替补阵容可能会压制纽约的第二阵容。其次，热火队的比赛节奏位居 NBA 之首，这可能会导致尼克斯的首发球员更加疲劳，从而迫使布朗不得不更多地使用他那薄弱的替补席。 —— 克拉姆
第4名：克利夫兰骑士队
晋级东部半决赛概率： 77.8%
晋级总决赛概率： 20.8%
氪星： 三分球防守
克利夫兰让对手在底角三分线外投出了40.9%的命中率，是所有 NBA 球队中第三差的。当骑士队在上赛季的分区半决赛中输给步行者队时，印第安纳在该系列赛中的三分命中率高达42.6%，因此让对手在三分线外投得太舒服一直是克利夫兰过去失败的原因之一。骑士队的防守体系围绕着两名护筐者埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 建立，他们全力保护禁区，并深知这会导致外线失守。但他们也意识到，如果任由对手在三分线外疯狂开火，在季后赛是行不通的。
骑士队将寄希望于他们在交易截止日的引援能带来改变。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 占据了所有头条，但克利夫兰还在替补席增加了基翁·埃利斯 (Keon Ellis) 和丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder)，替换了赛季初的一些外线防守弱点。到目前为止，这让骑士队的三分防守变得体面了一些：自2月5日以来，对手的命中率为36%，排名联盟第16位。 —— 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)
应避开的对手： 夏洛特黄蜂队
骑士队本赛季对阵夏洛特表现尚可，战绩为3胜1负，唯一的失利是在莫布利缺阵的一场加时赛中。但黄蜂队的新秀康·克纽佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 的三分命中数领跑全联盟，而作为一支球队，黄蜂队的三分球命中数（场均16.2个）排名联盟第一，三分准确率（38%）排名第三；自1月1日以来，这两项统计他们均位列第一。他们的远程火力可能会将克利夫兰的防守拉伸到崩溃边缘。 —— 克拉姆
西部联盟
第1名：俄克拉荷马城雷霆队（已锁定季后赛席位）
晋级西部半决赛概率： 91.8%
晋级总决赛概率： 55.3%
氪星： 底角三分
在现代 NBA 中，即便是全联盟最好的防守也必须有所取舍，因为现在的进攻效率比以往任何时候都高。雷霆队优先考虑让对手在拥挤的空间内打球，这是俄克拉荷马城能制造如此多失误的主要原因，他们场均制造16.9次失误，排名联盟第二（上赛季排名第一）。雷霆队为了夹击持球人而做出的牺牲，就是容忍对手投出大量的三分球。对手在对阵雷霆时场均命中14.3个三分球；只有犹他爵士队和密尔沃基雄鹿队的失分数更多。其中很大一部分是比赛中最有效的跳投：雷霆队场均让对手投进4.6个底角三分，为全联盟最差。 —— 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)
应避开的对手： 圣安东尼奥马刺队
即便马刺队看起来还不是俄克拉荷马城卫冕之路上的最大威胁——尽管他们在常规赛对阵雷霆的五场比赛中赢了四场——但圣安东尼奥确实完美契合了雷霆的这一弱点。马刺队场均尝试12.4次底角三分，位居联盟之首，命中率为39%。在个人球员方面，哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 的底角三分总出手数排名第二，朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 排名第四，德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 和凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 均位列前25名。
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是马刺队在与雷霆队的五次交手中运气不佳：他们场均尝试13.2次底角三分，但命中率仅为31.8%。在潜在的分区决赛对决中，他们有望投进更多这样的球。 —— 克拉姆
第2名：圣安东尼奥马刺队（已锁定季后赛席位）
晋级西部半决赛概率： 82.9%
晋级总决赛概率： 26.4%
氪星： 无法终结比赛
圣安东尼奥经常在开局阶段火力全开，在59%的比赛中曾领先15分或更多，在这种情况下他们的战绩为38胜4负。但值得注意的是，马刺队在领先10分或更多的情况下输掉了13场比赛，与掘金队并列联盟第四多，这凸显了终结比赛的问题。对于一支缺乏季后赛经验、自2019年以来首次开启季后赛征程的年轻球队来说，这是意料之中的。马刺队教练米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 反复强调球队保持“沉着冷静”的重要性，同时要避免那种有时会让马刺无法在对手陷入困境时将其击倒的“犹豫”。 —— 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
应避开的对手： 洛杉矶湖人队
如果马刺队难以终结比赛，那么理所当然地，他们会希望避开 NBA 最擅长打关键球的球队。湖人队22胜7负的关键时刻战绩可能不具预见性——关键时刻的表现往往带有偶然性，且受小样本随机性的影响——但拥有卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，湖人队拥有多次赢下势均力敌比赛的单打得分手和进攻火力。如果马刺队在第二轮对阵湖人队，他们需要在整场比赛中不断扩大领先优势，而不是松开油门，让东契奇和其他人在最后时刻获得机会。 —— 克拉姆
第3名：洛杉矶湖人队
晋级西部半决赛概率： 58.2%
晋级总决赛概率： 4.1%
氪星： 护筐
对手的球探报告都清楚，湖人队本赛季的阵容中没有任何人场均盖帽超过1次，因此当球队冲击洛杉矶的篮下时几乎没有畏惧。湖人队让对手在禁区的投篮命中率达到61.3%——根据 GeniusIQ 的数据，排名联盟第29位。
承担“拒绝轻松得分”重任的两人是中锋德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 和贾克森·海斯 (Jaxson Hayes)。奥斯汀·里夫斯称2018年的状元秀艾顿是湖人队的 X 因素，而海斯——这位曾在全明星周末参加扣篮大赛的7英尺长人——显然具备完成任务的身体素质。但问题不仅在于湖人队的最后一道防线。湖人队的外线球员——无论是马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 和里夫斯，还是勒布朗·詹姆斯和卢卡·东契奇——都有责任在进攻发起点提供第一道屏障。当进攻球员过掉防守，在向禁区推进时加速，即使是最好的盖帽手也可能无能为力。 —— 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)
应避开的对手： 明尼苏达森林狼队和圣安东尼奥马刺队
联盟中禁区投篮命中率最高的球队实际上是湖人队自己，而他们不能和自己比赛。但他们可以对阵森林狼队，后者以60.5%的禁区命中率排名第二；他们也可以对阵马刺队，后者以60.4%的命中率排名第三。森林狼队在去年的季后赛中统治了湖人队，今年春天他们可能会凭借对篮筐的冲击力尝试重演这一幕。与此同时，如果湖人队在第二轮遇到圣安东尼奥，马刺队和文班亚马可能会在篮下制造巨大的麻烦。 —— 克拉姆
第4名：休斯顿火箭队
晋级西部半决赛概率： 34.5%
晋级总决赛概率： 1.3%
氪星： 失误
火箭队在赛季早些时候似乎已经接受了这样一个事实：由于弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 赛季报销，在没有真正控球后卫的情况下，失误可能只是必然的结果。这使得两名高使用率球员凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 不得不承担起组织进攻的重任。申京和杜兰特的场均失误分别排在 NBA 第八和第十位（分别为3.3次和3.2次）。作为一支球队，火箭队场均失误15.7次，并列联盟倒数第四。对手利用这些失误场均得到19.1分，排名联盟第六。休斯顿本赛季在加时赛中遭遇六连败，加时赛战绩仅为1胜7负，而失误几乎总是决定因素。 —— 莱特 (Wright)
应避开的对手： 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
凭借一群外线“神偷”，雷霆队在对手失误率方面排名 NBA 第二（仅次于底特律），并且凭借场均利用失误得到22.3分领跑联盟。对于一支没有真正控球后卫的球队来说，这是一个危险的局面。火箭队的成功源于他们出色的前场篮板能力，这让他们能够赢得球权争夺战，但过多的失误会将这一优势拱手让给俄克拉荷马城。 —— 克拉姆
第5名：丹佛掘金队
晋级西部半决赛概率： 69.3%
晋级总决赛概率： 8.9%
氪星： 制造失误能力不足
丹佛有很多防守问题，但那一端缺乏防守组织能力尤为突出。掘金队在场均制造失误（11.8次）方面排名垫底，在盖帽（3.9次）方面排名第29位。佩顿·沃森 (Peyton Watson) 因腿筋拉伤长期缺阵，直到3月22日才回归，球队非常想念他在这些方面的贡献。他的场均盖帽（1.1次）领跑全队，帮助掩盖了三届 MVP 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 最明显的弱点，并且抢断（1.0次）排名全队第二。亚伦·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 因自身的腿筋问题缺席了很长时间，他虽然没有很多盖帽或抢断，但他是维系丹佛防守的“胶带”。 —— 麦克马洪
应避开的对手： 休斯顿火箭队
建议失误频发的火箭进攻可能会给不善制造失误的掘金防守带来麻烦，这看起来可能有些反直觉。但如果休斯顿的主要问题是失误过多，那么在对阵一支不太会抢断球的掘金防守时，他们可能会发现进攻更加顺畅。将相对较少的失误与休斯顿所有的前场篮板结合起来，火箭队可能会在对阵丹佛时在球权争夺战中取得决定性胜利。 —— 克拉姆
第6名：明尼苏达森林狼队
晋级西部半决赛概率： 37.8%
晋级总决赛概率： 1.9%
氪星： 替补产出
森林狼队场均替补得分仅为33.5分，排名联盟第23位，他们非常怀念尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 在为了高薪加盟亚特兰大之前提供的进攻火力。但明尼苏达最近在这一领域取得了重大进展。交易截止日得到的阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 为森林狼的替补席注入了强心针。他在担任替补期间场均贡献13.2分，有效投篮命中率达59.9%，并在安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 应对右膝酸痛期间顶替首发。海兰德 (Bones Hyland) 最近也表现出色，在过去五场比赛中场均得到17.6分，投篮命中率为 .484/.417/.929，帮助森林狼在爱德华兹缺阵期间取得了4胜1负的战绩。 —— 麦克马洪
应避开的对手： 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
雷霆队可能会淹没森林狼队的替补阵容，因为他们拥有 NBA 阵容深度最厚的球队，如果今年春天每个人都保持健康，多达13名球员有资格进入他们的季后赛轮换。这让俄克拉荷马城在任何特定比赛出现问题时都有充足的备选方案，而明尼苏达相对较短的轮换则意味着缺乏灵活性。 —— 克拉姆
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA contender kryptonite: Biggest weakness for top playoff teams
NBA contender kryptonite: Biggest weakness for top playoff teams
The NBA playoffs are two weeks away, and the postseason picture is taking shape.
In the East, the Detroit Pistons have already clinched a playoff berth in hopes of securing the conference’s No. 1 seed. In the West, Victor Wembanyama secured his first playoff appearance with the San Antonio Spurs, while the Oklahoma City Thunder – who are just ahead of the Spurs – hope to repeat as NBA champions.
Will the Thunder be what stands in San Antonio’s way for a Finals appearance? Ultimately, it will depend on each team getting the right – or wrong – series matchup. And despite playoff contenders catapulting themselves over conference competition, each team possess a kryptonite that could lead to their playoff undoing.
Our insiders evaluated the biggest weakness of the top 10 NBA Finals contenders – bench production, 3-point shooting, among others – and broke down their possible impact in a deep postseason run. ESPN analyst Zach Kram then selected the opponent best positioned to exploit it.
(Note: Each team’s playoff chances are according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.)
Jump to a team:
East: BOS | CLE | DET | NYK
West: DEN | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
Eastern Conference
No. 1: Detroit Pistons (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.6%
Chance to make the Finals: 30.6%
Kryptonite: 3-point shooting
You can’t ignore it: 3-point shooting is the great equalizer in today’s NBA, and the Pistons don’t have enough of it. Even with Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. spreading the floor last season, they were in the bottom third in the league from beyond the arc. Now, they’re 29th in attempts and 28th in makes. They rely so much on the defense creating offense and Cade Cunningham’s brilliance in the half court, it feels like an easy bugaboo to point out that the three other contenders (Knicks, Celtics and Hornets) in the East are all top 10 in makes.
Can Kevin Huerter acclimate himself enough to make a difference? Will Duncan Robinson find his movements to create open looks? The Pistons have survived this season knowing their weaknesses, but May and June feel like a different season. – Vincent Goodwill
Opponent to avoid: Boston Celtics and New York Knicks
The Celtics and Knicks both have top-five defenses that are built around taking away the paint and letting opponents fire away from deep. They lead all playoff teams in opponents’ 3-point attempt rate, with 45% of the shots they give up coming from long range. But if the Pistons’ personnel means they’re unable to take advantage of the shots that Boston and New York naturally give up, then a series against either Eastern Conference foe could prove a tough slog for Detroit’s offense. – Zach Kram
No. 2: Boston Celtics (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the East semifinals: 72%
Chance to make the Finals: 17.4%
Kryptonite: Fast-break scoring
Given the long-standing truth that the game always slows down in the playoffs, fast-break scoring is the best issue to have. The Celtics rank last in fast-break points per game (11.4), and Boston will be hoping that Jayson Tatum’s return will eventually mitigate any offensive issues. So far, Tatum’s play has come in fits and starts, but overall it has been encouraging to see him return less than a year after suffering an Achilles tear and immediately find ways to contribute to winning. And Boston will also be counting on its huge edge in playoff experience in the East to be a benefit. – Tim Bontemps
Opponent to avoid: Detroit Pistons
If the Celtics don’t score in transition, then they’ll need to maximize their opportunities in the half court. But the Pistons could make that difficult, as they boast by far the best half-court defense in the East, according to Cleaning the Glass; only the Thunder have a better half-court defense. Whether the Pistons’ wings are up to the task of defending Tatum and Jaylen Brown for a full series remains to be seen – all four matchups between the teams came before Tatum’s return – but at the very least, they’d force Boston to grind out every possession. – Kram
No. 3: New York Knicks
Chance to make the East semifinals: 75.7%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.7%
Kryptonite: Bench scoring
It’s amazing when you look at the Knicks starters’ minutes compared to last season: Only Jalen Brunson is close to his numbers from last season at 35 minutes a game. Still, because coach Mike Brown’s team is so reliant on the starters to produce, New York’s bench is averaging 31.2 PPG, which ranks 28th in the league.
Mikal Bridges is in a prolonged production slump. Karl-Anthony Towns is constantly under fire. Off the bench, Landry Shamet has had moments (39% from 3), Jordan Clarkson has been spotty and Mitchell Robinson isn’t a consistent scoring contributor. Miles McBride is recovering from hernia surgery and could be available in the postseason, but who can Brown truly depend on for alternate options on offense? – Goodwill
Opponent to avoid: Miami Heat
There are two reasons the Heat are best suited to take advantage of New York’s lack of bench scoring. First, Miami leads all teams with a winning record in bench scoring, with 42.9 points per game, meaning the Heat – led by Sixth Man of the Year contender Jaime Jaquez Jr. – could overwhelm New York’s bench units. And second, the Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which could induce greater fatigue in the Knicks’ starters and require Brown to turn more to his weaker bench than usual. – Kram
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.8%
Kryptonite: 3-point defense
Cleveland has had its opponents shoot 40.9% on corner 3s, the third-worst among all NBA teams. When the Cavs lost to the Pacers in last season’s conference semifinals, Indiana shot 42.6% from 3 in the series, so letting an opponent get too comfortable shooting 3s has been a part of Cleveland’s undoing in the past. With a defense built around two rim protectors, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs are all-in on protecting the paint and know they’re going to give up 3s as a result. But they also recognized the rate at which they were getting lit up from beyond the arc wasn’t going to cut it during the playoffs.
The Cavs will be counting on their deadline acquisitions to make a difference. James Harden got all the headlines, but Cleveland also added Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder off the bench, replacing a few of their weaker perimeter defenders from earlier in the season. So far, it has made the Cavs 3-point defense more respectable: opponents are shooting 36% since Feb. 5, which ranks 16th. – Jamal Collier
Opponent to avoid: Charlotte Hornets
Cleveland has mostly handled Charlotte just fine this season, going 3-1, with the only loss coming in overtime in a game Mobley sat out. But Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel leads the league in 3-point makes, and as a team, the Hornets lead the league in 3-pointers (16.2 per game) and rank third in 3-point accuracy (38%); since Jan. 1, they’re first in both stats. Their long-range readiness could stretch Cleveland’s defense to the breaking point. – Kram
Western Conference
No. 1: Oklahoma City Thunder (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the West semifinals: 91.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 55.3%
Kryptonite: Corner 3s
Even the league’s best defense has to give up something in the modern NBA, when offenses are scoring more efficiently than ever. The Thunder prioritize making their opponents play in crowds, which is a major factor in Oklahoma City forcing so many turnovers, ranking second in that category (16.9 per game) after leading the league last season. That sacrifice the Thunder make for swarming the ball is living with foes getting up a lot of 3s. Opponents hit 14.3 3-pointers per game against OKC; only the Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks give up more. A healthy percentage of those are the most efficient jump shots in the game: The Thunder give up a league-worst 4.6 made corner 3s per game. – Tim MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: San Antonio Spurs
As if the Spurs didn’t already look like the biggest threat to Oklahoma City’s chance to repeat – winning four of five regular-season games against the Thunder – San Antonio is also perfectly suited to expose this Thunder weakness. The Spurs attempt a league-leading 12.4 corner 3s per game, making 39% of them. Among individual players, Harrison Barnes ranks second in total corner 3 attempts, Julian Champagnie ranks fourth, and Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson each rank in the top 25.
If anything, the Spurs got unlucky against Oklahoma City in their five matchups: They took 13.2 corner 3s per game but made only 31.8%. They should expect to sink more of those tries in a potential conference finals matchup. – Kram
No. 2: San Antonio Spurs (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the West semifinals: 82.9%
Chance to make the Finals: 26.4%
Kryptonite: Not putting away teams
San Antonio routinely jumps out of the gate firing, having led by 15 points or more in 59% of its outings, which translates to a record of 38-4 in that scenario. But it’s worth noting the Spurs have lost 13 games in which they’ve led by 10 points or more, tying the Nuggets for the fourth-most losses in the NBA, which points to an issue finishing games. That’s to be expected from a young team short on playoff experience embarking on its first postseason since 2019. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has talked repeatedly about the importance of his team keeping its “poise and composure” while avoiding the “hesitancy” that sometimes keeps San Antonio from knocking out opponents when they’re on the ropes. -- Michael C. Wright
Opponent to avoid: Los Angeles Lakers
If the Spurs struggle to put away teams, then it stands to reason that they’d want to avoid facing the NBA’s best clutch team. The Lakers’ 22-7 clutch record might not be predictive – clutch performance is often fluky and subject to small-sample randomness – but with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James, the Lakers have the isolation scorers and offensive firepower to repeatedly pull out close games. If the Spurs end up facing the Lakers in the second round, they’ll need to keep building their lead throughout each game, rather than taking their foot off the gas and letting Doncic and the others have a chance in the final minutes. – Kram
No. 3: Los Angeles Lakers
Chance to make the West semifinals: 58.2%
Chance to make the Finals: 4.1%
Kryptonite: Rim protection
Opposing scouting reports know that nobody on the Lakers’ roster averages even one blocked shot per game this season, so there’s little fear when teams attack the rim against L.A. The Lakers see opponents shoot 61.3% in the paint – 29th in the league, according to GeniusIQ.
The two who shoulder the most responsibility for N.E.B. (no easy buckets) are centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes. Austin Reaves called Ayton, the No. 1 pick in 2018, the Lakers’ X factor and Hayes – a 7-footer who was in the dunk contest during All-Star weekend – certainly has the physical tools to get it done. But the problem is not just with the Lakers’ backline. It is incumbent on the Lakers’ perimeter players – be it Marcus Smart and Reaves or LeBron James and Luka Doncic – to provide an initial barrier at the point of attack. When an offensive player blows by the defense, allowing him to accelerate as he advances toward the paint, it can neutralize even the best shot blockers. – Dave McMenamin
Opponent to avoid: Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs
The league-leading offense in terms of field goal percentage in the paint is actually the Lakers, and they can’t play themselves. But they can play the Timberwolves, who rank second by making 60.5% of their shots in the paint, and they can also play the Spurs, who rank third with a 60.4% mark. The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers in the playoffs last year, and they could try to repeat that feat this spring with all the pressure they put on the basket. Meanwhile, the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama could be a huge problem down low if the Lakers face San Antonio in the second round. – Kram
No. 4: Houston Rockets
Chance to make the West semifinals: 34.5%
Chance to make the Finals: 1.3%
Kryptonite: Turnovers
Houston seemed resigned earlier in the season to accept that turnovers might just be a consequence of not having a true point guard because of a season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet. It has been on a pair of high-usage players, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, to facilitate the offense. Sengun and Durant rank eighth and 10th in the NBA in turnovers per game (3.3 and 3.2, respectively). As a team, the Rockets average 15.7 turnovers, tied for fourth worst in the NBA. Opponents have feasted on those giveaways, scoring 19.1 points per game off turnovers, which ranks sixth most in the league. Houston has dropped six games in a row this season in overtime for a 1-7 record in OT, with turnovers almost always serving as a deciding factor. -- Wright
Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder
With a horde of perimeter ball hawks, the Thunder rank second in the NBA in opponent turnover percentage (behind only Detroit), and they lead the league by scoring 22.3 points per game off turnovers. That’s a dangerous proposition against a team that doesn’t really play a true point guard. The Rockets succeed because their offensive rebounding prowess allows them to win the possession battle, but too many turnovers would swing that advantage to Oklahoma City. – Kram
No. 5: Denver Nuggets
Chance to make the West semifinals: 69.3%
Chance to make the Finals: 8.9%
Kryptonite: Forced turnovers
Denver has a lot of defensive problems, but a lack of playmaking on that end stands out. The Nuggets rank last in turnovers forced per game (11.8) and 29th in blocked shots (3.9). Peyton Watson’s presence was missed in these areas during his extended absence because of a hamstring strain, finally returning on March 22. He leads the Nuggets in blocked shots (1.1 per game), helping mask three-time MVP Nikola Jokic’s most glaring weakness, and ranks second in steals (1.0). Aaron Gordon, who has sat out significant stretches because of his own hamstring issues, doesn’t get a lot of blocks or steals, but is the duct tape that holds the Denver defense together. – MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: Houston Rockets
It might seem counterintuitive to suggest the turnover-happy Rockets offense could be a problem for the turnover-averse Nuggets defense. But if Houston’s main issue is too many turnovers, then it might find smoother sailing against a Nuggets offense that won’t take away the ball very often. Combine a relative lack of turnovers with all of Houston’s offensive rebounds, and the Rockets could win the possession battle decisively against Denver. – Kram
No. 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
Chance to make the West semifinals: 37.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 1.9%
Kryptonite: Bench production
The Timberwolves rank 23rd in the league with only 33.5 bench points per game, sorely missing the offensive punch that Nickeil Alexander-Walker provided before leaving for a free agency payday from Atlanta. But Minnesota has made major progress in this area recently. The trade-deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu gave the Wolves’ bench a major boost. He has averaged 13.2 points with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9%, serving as a reserve before filling in as a starter as Anthony Edwards deals with right knee soreness. Bones Hyland also has been balling, averaging 17.6 points on .484/.417/.929 shooting splits in the past five games, helping the Wolves go 4-1 in Edwards’ absence. -- MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder could swamp the Timberwolves’ bench units, as they have the NBA’s deepest team, with up to 13 players worthy of appearing in their playoff rotation if everyone is healthy this spring. That gives Oklahoma City plenty of backup plans if something goes wrong in any particular game, whereas Minnesota’s relatively short rotation translates to a lack of flexibility. – Kram
By NBA Insiders | ESPN, via ESPN