By Lee Dresie / Pounding The Rock, 2026-10-09 00:49:57
当那些人身伤害律师的电视广告在电视上播放时（简直是循环播放），你经常会看到一句免责声明：“过往业绩不代表未来表现”。这话没错，尤其是因为这些广告只吹嘘律师的大获全胜，绝口不提败诉的案子。
这和 Pounding the Rock 的读者有什么关系？因为这是我一年一度的 NBA 西部联盟大小分预测——一项无与伦比的传统。哦等等，那是美国大师赛的说法。
不管怎样，那位律师的免责声明用在这里格外贴切，因为（a）我本人就是一名律师（非人身伤害方向），（b）我在 2025-26 赛季的赛前大小分预测中居然打出了 11 中 4 的战绩。没错，11 中仅 4。所以——“过往业绩不代表未来表现”。请注意，我没有提及我此前几个赛季的战绩。 suffice it to say，那些预测可没有 11 中 4 这么风光。
我上赛季最大的赢面是对马刺的拉斯维加斯赛前预测。维加斯开出 43.5 胜，我的预测是“大分、大分、大分”，结果马刺赢了 62 场。所以我总战绩 11 中 4，并且命中了最重要的那个预测。
但那是上赛季的事了，而我可不是躺在功劳簿上吃老本的人。事实上，我不觉得自己拥有什么“功劳簿”，不知道那是什么，也不知道该躺在哪儿、怎么躺、为什么要躺。相反，我将再次披挂上阵，努力重现上赛季的成功（马刺也是如此）。
上赛季的赛前文章是从分区头名球队开始往下写的。今年我要反过来，从烂队写起，以强队收尾，从而巧妙地把马刺留到最后。因为马刺终于再次变强了。非常强。
今年我增加一项内容：2025-26 赛季维加斯的赛前预测与各队最终胜场数的接近程度。我称之为 HDVD——维加斯表现如何？
请记住，我过去的成功不代表未来的表现。尤其是因为我邀请了几位我尊敬的懂球人士来谈谈他们钟爱的球队——你可能会看到一些或许毫无根据的球迷式乐观。好了，出发，从西部的鱼腩球队开始：
萨克拉门托国王
HDVD — 上赛季，维加斯预测国王赢 35.5 场，“聪明人”们彻底看走了眼。国王只赢了 22 场。
尽管球迷很棒，但这是一支非常可悲的球队。至少快船已经接过了“NBA 最惨球队”的头衔。维加斯预测今年的国王赢 21.5 场，比上赛季的灾难还要少。饱受煎熬的国王球迷布伦特（Brent）如此点评：
“国王 21.5 的大/小分盘口简直令人发指——就像国王的防守一样。纸面上，国王有冲击 22 胜以上的阵容。但球场上，历史表明国王会试图赢 40 场，最终却恰好赢 21 场，而且居然连前三顺位选秀权都换不到。国王当上西部第三仿佛是十年前的事，但罗伯特·霍里投进那记三分又仿佛就在昨天。作为忠实的国王球迷，凭借小达柳斯·阿卡夫的承诺，我对本赛季保持谨慎乐观。我选大分。”
新奥尔良鹈鹕
HDVD — 维加斯预测鹈鹕 2025-26 赛季赢 30.5 场，但他们连这个低得可怜的目标都没达到，只赢了 26 场。
今年，维加斯给鹈鹕开出 28.5 胜。和国王一样，又一支可悲的球队，不过新奥尔良的美食更好。还记得人们曾以为锡安·威廉姆森会成为联盟真正的统治级力量吗？也许他应该去一个美食不那么诱人的城市打球。我预测鹈鹕小分，又是小分，新奥尔良居民史蒂夫（Steve）也这么认为：
“胜负不重要，重要的是证明比尔·西蒙斯关于鹈鹕离开新奥尔良的猜测是错的。就在几年前，鹈鹕还是一支前途光明、观赏性强、球迷基础不断扩大的球队。如今，在竞争激烈的西部，很难看到鹈鹕打进季后赛的路径。28.5 胜我选小分，但西蒙斯看错、鹈鹕留在新奥尔良这件事我选大分。”
孟菲斯灰熊
HDVD — 维加斯上赛季最过度自信的预测。预测赢 40.5 场，灰熊只赢了 25 场。
维加斯也许吸取了教训，现在只给灰熊开出 28.5 胜。孟菲斯厌倦了把未来押在喜怒无常的贾·莫兰特身上，赛季结束后将他交易到波特兰。此前他们还在赛季中把小贾伦·杰克逊交易到了犹他。新的预计首发阵容：泰·杰罗姆、塞德里克·考沃德、杰拉米·格兰特、卡梅隆·布泽尔和扎克·伊迪。
这套阵容在我看来很像一个小分。
洛杉矶快船
HDVD — 又一个维加斯过度自信的选择：预测快船 2025-26 赛季赢 48.5 场，结果他们步履蹒跚地只拿到 42 胜，随后在附加赛中输给勇士。当然，之后消息变得更糟了。
快船是维加斯今年开出 28.5 胜的第三支球队。这个预测可能是未来四五年的最高点了，因为快船不仅会输掉很多比赛，而且未来五年的选秀权已经全部送出。NBA 禁止史蒂夫·鲍尔默一年内进入球馆，或许反倒帮了他一把。我认为球队整体低迷的氛围会导致小分，但快船球迷亚当（Adam）对本赛季持乐观态度：
“大分。没错，我们的未来已经被彻底摧毁了，但这不影响今年。在经历了极其漫长的休赛期、终于翻过‘用未来换一次西决’这一页之后，泰伦·卢手下的正是他通常能玩得转的阵容，而且确实有几名前全明星可用。我能看到这支球队争夺附加赛席位，但不幸的是，我们联盟最长的连续胜率过半赛季纪录岌岌可危。这就是快船球迷的人生！”
达拉斯独行侠
HDVD — 维加斯上赛季预测独行侠赢 39.5 场，结果严重失准，独行侠只赢了 26 场。
维加斯给独行侠开出提升至 35.5 胜。独行侠球迷迪伦（Dylan）的期望更高：
“35.5 我选大分。达拉斯去年赢了 26 场，但这支球队更高、更长、更健康。德里克·莱夫利二世状态好时是防守支柱（新秀赛季对手在他面前篮下命中率仅 58.5%，介于埃文·莫布利和巴姆·阿德巴约之间），丹尼尔·加福德、小莫雷兹·约翰逊、圣地·阿尔达马和扎卡里·里萨谢则增加了身高，外加真正的投射能力——阿尔达马和里萨谢上赛季三分命中率都在 35% 以上。库珀·弗拉格据他自己说赤脚身高已达 6 英尺 10 英寸，有望迎来大幅度的二年级飞跃，而凯里·欧文距离前交叉韧带撕裂已过去一年半。一切都取决于健康，但我看好达拉斯突破 35.5 胜。”
犹他爵士
HDVD — 维加斯预测爵士很烂，只有 19.5 胜，他们确实很烂，只是没有预测的那么烂，赢了 22 场。
维加斯预测爵士将大幅提升至 36.5 胜。我认为他们会超过这个数字，所以我选大分。盐湖城本地的史蒂夫（Steve）表示赞同：
“第一：丹尼·安吉，我们信你。
第二：我们不是在摆烂！想赢球的话这永远是巨大的加分项！
我认为我们今年能赢 42 场以上。球队构建得更好了，阵容深度也比以往更足。
达伦·彼得森太不可思议了。我在夏季联赛现场看过他几场，他就是能打球。他是我见过最纯粹的射手之一。失误会有，但他对进攻是巨大的提升。
‘关键因素’在于球员们热爱老板瑞安·史密斯。他对球员很好，不图个人名利，爵士是他建设犹他州宏伟蓝图的核心部分。”
波特兰开拓者
HDVD — 上赛季，维加斯预测 34.5 胜。开拓者轻松超越，以 42 胜 40 负拿到胜率过半的战绩。
维加斯预测开拓者今年将更进一步，赢 43.5 场。开拓者球迷史蒂夫（Steve）选小分：
“我预测开拓者今年 42 胜。他们的整体天赋比去年更强，但我就是不喜欢这套阵容的搭配。在用利拉德搭配另一个防不了的后卫、自我设限十年之后，他们休赛期的大动作竟然是让一位更老、更慢（还是大伤之后）的利拉德搭档贾·莫兰特？这这这……简直是疯狂的定义。至少 CJ·麦科勒姆还能投篮！”
金州勇士
HDVD — 维加斯预测勇士稳稳拿下 45.5 胜，但吉米·巴特勒和斯蒂芬·库里的伤病让这成为泡影。勇士最终 37 胜 45 负。
维加斯今年给勇士开出 39.5 胜，再次低于五成胜率。前大学室友科里（Corey）认为这个评估很准确，但倾向于小分：
“取决于吉米·巴特勒什么时候回来。有吉米，他们胜率能过五成。没他，就过不了。就像我说的，39.5 听起来差不多。那些拉斯维加斯的家伙确实懂行（脏话已删除）。”
菲尼克斯太阳
HDVD — 太阳 45 胜的战绩远超维加斯 31.5 胜的预测。事实上，这是西部球队中第二大的超额表现。我们都知道哪支球队超额最多。
维加斯给太阳开出今年回落至 39.5 胜。我读到的一份预测这样写道：“中锋马克·威廉姆斯预计在盂唇手术后缺席大约前四个月，这将为卡曼·马卢阿奇等球员腾出早期上场时间。”如果你和我一样，从没听说过（也念不出）马卢阿奇这个名字，光凭这一点我就把太阳定为小分。住在图森的挚友戴夫（Dave）表示赞同：
“太阳正在为德文·布克落下帷幕，他整个职业生涯都是高水平得分手……而且全都在菲尼克斯度过。前场实力不够强。卢克·肯纳德的加盟让他们在布克和科林·吉莱斯皮之外又多了一名射手。他们需要再多一个射手吗？太阳上赛季是个不错的惊喜。今年，我说不行。小于 39.5 胜。”
洛杉矶湖人
HDVD — 2025-26 赛季的湖人以出人意料的 53 胜 29 负超越了维加斯 47.5 胜的预测。随后他们克服了一连串伤病，在首轮淘汰火箭，接着被雷霆横扫——虽然 4 比 0 的比分看起来比实际系列赛更悬殊。
今年维加斯给湖人开出小幅回落——再见勒布朗——45.5 胜。永远乐观的湖人球迷迈克（Mike）不同意维加斯：
“伙计们，今年别做空湖人。卢卡和他那群快乐的年轻射手、防守者、顺下终结者，外加中间一个超大的护框者。我看好 50 胜和三或四号种子。”
没错，迈克选了大分。（我想这是迈克连续第 27 次为湖人选“大分”了。）
休斯顿火箭
HDVD — 火箭 52 胜，略低于维加斯预测的 55.5 胜。
尽管控卫弗雷德·范弗利特回归，维加斯仍预测火箭本赛季回落至 46.5 胜。也许维加斯认为不老传奇凯文·杜兰特终于要显出老态了？如果不是，拥有一名真正的控卫应该能帮助进攻，尽管防守和篮板可能会略有下滑。总而言之，我认为 46.5 胜低估了火箭。大分。
丹佛掘金
HDVD — 维加斯上赛季最准的预测。掘金在常规赛最后一场击败马刺后达到 54 胜，与维加斯 53.5 胜的预测几乎完全吻合。
今年，维加斯预测掘金将小幅回落至 48.5 胜。这种回落更多是基于健康而非天赋，因为球队仍拥有约基奇、戈登和穆雷，还引进了前马刺球员德玛尔·德罗赞。德罗赞的得分能力依然不输任何人（前提是那些得分是两分，不是三分）。嘿，我看到掘金还签下了朗尼·沃克四世！我依然为那家伙加油，这已经是他 NBA 的第八个（!!）赛季了。掘金和他们的两位前马刺球员，我选大分。
我们也来为更多约老师这样的传球欢呼吧：
不看人。横跨全场。背后妙传。
你是认真的吗，约老师
pic.twitter.com/A5upVabWYw
— NBA (@NBA) 2026年10月4日
明尼苏达森林狼
HDVD — 维加斯上赛季又一个不错的预测。森林狼赢了 49 场，只是略低于维加斯预测的 50.5 胜。
本赛季的预测类似：48.5 胜。明尼苏达的大新闻是球队引进了拉梅洛·鲍尔和乔纳森·库明加，送出了纳兹·里德、朱利叶斯·兰德尔和前马刺球员凯尔·安德森。维加斯大概是看着这一堆变动，摊了摊手，说：“他们去年赢了多少场？就按那个来。”我做了类似的事——抛硬币，结果是“反面”。小分。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
HDVD — 上赛季开始时，舆论一致认为雷霆是一台不可阻挡的碾压机器。维加斯给雷霆开出 62.5 胜，他们以 64 胜超越了这一数字——一个出色的赛季。令人欣慰的是，雷霆常规赛的四场失利都输给了同一支球队，而这支球队随后又在季后赛中四次击败雷霆。换句话说，在常规赛加季后赛总共 22 场失利中，马刺贡献了其中的 8 场。
维加斯给雷霆开出本赛季 60.5 胜。雷霆希望杰伦·威廉姆斯本赛季更健康，也希望 7 英尺 3 英寸的新秀阿代·马拉能比切特·霍姆格伦在季后赛中更好地对抗维克托·文班亚马。这两件事都得发生，因为雷霆在休赛期失去了宝贵的轮换球员卢·多特、阿隆·威金斯和以赛亚·乔。对我来说，失去这些人会让雷霆略低于 60.5 胜。我给雷霆一个非常轻微的小分。
但雷霆仍然是马刺争夺王座之路上的最大障碍。
圣安东尼奥马刺
HDVD — 马刺在 2025-26 赛季彻底碾压了所有人的预期，包括但不限于维加斯 43.5 胜的预测。马刺 62 胜 20 负的战绩意味着他们超出预测整整 18.5 个“额外”胜场——维加斯当年最大的失准，而且是大大的失准。
维加斯对马刺 2026-27 赛季的预测与雷霆相同——60.5 胜。我不认为马刺能重现上赛季 18.5 场的超额表现——不过 79 胜 3 负的战绩会比上赛季更令人欣喜。按照合同要求我必须说大分，但本赛季我只选一个大分，而不是大分、大分、大分。让我们以 63 胜 19 负和头号种子收官吧。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Trying to repeat last season’s over/under predictions success: Western Conference
Trying to repeat last season’s over/under predictions success: Western Conference
When those TV ads for personal injury attorneys run on TV (which is constantly), you will often see a disclaimer that “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Which is true, especially because the ads only tout the attorney’s big successes, not the losses.
How is this relevant to Pounding the Rock readers? Because this is my annual Overs and Unders predictions for the NBA’s Western Conference – a tradition unlike any other. Oh wait, that’s the Masters.
Anyway, the attorney disclaimer is especially appropriate because (a) I am an attorney (non-personal injury division) and (b) I somehow went 11-4 on my preseason over/under predictions for the 2025-26 season. Yes, 11 wins and only 4 losses. Hence – “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Note that I did not mention my record in prior seasons. Suffice it say those prior predictions were not as good as 11 and 4.
My biggest win last season was on the Vegas preseason prediction for the Spurs. Vegas said 43.5 wins, my prediction was “OVER, OVER, OVER”, and the Spurs won 62. So I went 11-4 overall and nailed the most important prediction.
But that was last season, and I am not one to rest on my laurels. Indeed, I don’t believe I own any laurels, don’t know what they are, and I don’t know how or where or why one would rest on them. Instead, I will wade into the breach once again and try to repeat last season’s successes (as will the Spurs).
Last season’s preseason article started with teams at the top of the conference and went down.. This season I will flip that and start with the lousy teams, ending with the good ones, thereby cleverly leaving the Spurs until the end. Because the Spurs are finally once again good. Very good.
I am adding one thing: how close the 2025-26 Vegas preseason prediction was to each team’s final win total. I will call that HDVD – How Did Vegas Do?
Remember that my past success is not a guarantee of future results. Especially because I have asked some basketball minds that I respect to weigh in on their favorite teams — you can expect some perhaps unjustified fan optimism. And away we go, starting with the dregs of the Western Conference:
Sacramento Kings
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted the Kings would win 35.5 games, a total whiff by the “smart guys”. The Kings won only 22.
Despite great fans, this is a very sorry franchise. At least the Clippers have taken over the spot for saddest NBA franchise. Vegas predicts that this year’s Kings will win 21.5 games, even less than last season’s disaster. Long-suffering fan Kings fan Brent weighed in with this:
“The 21.5 O/U number for the Kings is patently offensive—much like the Kings’ defense. On paper, the Kings have the pieces to blow past 22 wins. On the court, history suggests the Kings will try to win 40 games, but will win exactly 21 games, and somehow not even get a top 3 draft pick in return. It seems like a decade ago that the Kings were the 3 seed in the West, but it seems like yesterday that Robert Horry buried that 3 . As a loyal Kings fan, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season with the promise of Darius Acuff, Jr. I’ll take the over.”
New Orleans Pelicans
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Pelicans would win 30.5 games in 2025-26, but they couldn’t even reach that low goal, winning only 26.
This year, Vegas has the Pelicans winning 28.5 games. Like the Kings, another sorry franchise, though the food is better. Do you remember when people thought Zion Williamson would be a true force in the league? Maybe he should play in a city where the food isn’t so good. I have New Orleans as UNDER, again, as does New Orleans resident Steve:
“Wins and losses are less important than proving Bill Simmons’ speculation about the Pels leaving NOLA wrong. Just a few years ago, the Pels were a promising team that was a fun watch with a growing fan base. Now, it’s hard to see a path to the playoffs for the Pels in a stacked conference. I’ll take the under on 28.5 wins but the over on Simmons being wrong and the Pels staying in NOLA.”
Memphis Grizzlies
HDVD — Vegas’s worst over-confident prediction last season. Predicted to win 40.5 wins, the Grizzlies won only 25.
Vegas may have learned its lesson and now has the Grizz winning only 28.5. Memphis grew tired of tying their future to the mercurial Ja Morant, shipping him to Portland after the season. This was after trading Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah during the season. The new projected starting lineup: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jerami Grant, Cameron Boozer, and Zach Edey.
That line-up sounds a lot like an UNDER to me.
Los Angeles Clippers
HDVD — Another over-confident Vegas pick: Predicted to win 48.5 wins in 2025-26, the Clips limped in with 42 wins, and then lost to the Warriors in the Play-In round. Of course, news then got worse.
Clippers are the third team that Vegas has at 28.5 wins for this season. That prediction may be the high point for the next four or five years as the Clippers will both lose many games and have already lost all their draft picks for the next five years.The NBA may have done Steve Ballmer a favor by barring him from the arena for a year. I think the overall bad vibes on the team will lead to an UNDER, but Clips fan Adam has an optimistic take for this season:
“OVER. Sure our future has been completely destroyed, but that didn’t affect this year. After an extremely long off season and finally turning the page on trading our future for one Western Conference Finals, Ty Lue has a team with which he typically excels and does have several former All-Stars to utilize. I can see this team fighting for a Play-In spot, but unfortunately our league leading streak of winning seasons is in serious jeopardy. The life of a Clippers fan!”
Dallas Mavericks
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Mavs would win 39.5 games last season, missing badly as the Mavs won only 26 times.
Vegas has Mavs improving to 35.5 wins. Mavs fan Dylan has higher hopes than that:
“I’ll take the over on 35.5. Dallas won 26 games last year, but this team is bigger, longer, and healthier. Dereck Lively II anchors the defense when he’s right (opponents shot 58.5% at the rim against him as a rookie, a mark between Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo), and Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama, and Zaccharie Risacher add length, plus real shooting, since Aldama and Risacher both shot 35% or better from three last year. Cooper Flagg, now 6’10” barefoot by his own account, is set up for a big second-year leap, and Kyrie Irving is a year and a half removed from his ACL tear. It all hinges on health, but I like Dallas to clear 35.5.”
Utah Jazz
HDVD — The Jazz were predicted to be bad with 19.5 wins, and they were bad, but just not quite as bad as predicted, with 22 wins.
Vegas predicts significant improvement for the Jazz, up to 36.5 wins. I think they will exceed that, so I have OVER. Salt Lake City’s own Steve agrees:
“First: In Danny We Trust
Second: We aren’t trying to tank! Always a big plus when trying to win!
I think we are a 42+ game winner this year. The team is constructed much better and we have more depth than before.
Darryn Peterson is incredible. I watched him live in a couple of summer games and he can flat out play. He is one of the purest shooters I’ve seen. Expect mistakes, but he is a huge boost to the offense.
The “it factor” is that the players love the owner Ryan Smith. He treats them great, he isn’t in it for the personal fame, and the Jazz are a central part of his grand design to build up the state of Utah.“
Portland Trail Blazers
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted 34.5 wins. Blazers easily surpassed that, with a winning record at 42 – 40.
Vegas predicts the Blazers will beat that this year with 43.5 wins. Blazers fan Steve takes the UNDER:
“I’ve got the Blazers at 42 wins this year. They have more overall talent than last year, but I just hate how this roster fits together. After a decade of limiting themselves by pairing Lillard with another undersized guard that can’t defend, their big offseason move is putting an even older and slower (and post-injury) Lillard with Ja Morant? Something, something… definition of insanity. At least CJ McCollum could shoot!”
Golden State Warriors
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Ws to win a solid 45.5 games, but injuries to Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry made that impossible. Warriors finished at 37-45.
Vegas has the Warriors below .500 again this year with 39.5 wins. Former college roommate Corey thinks that is an accurate assessment, but leans under:
“Depends when Jimmy Butler gets back. With Jimmy, they’ll be over .500. Without him, they’ll be under .500. Like I said, 39.5 sounds about right. Those Las Vegas guys know their [profanity deleted].”
Phoenix Suns
HDVD — The Suns’ 45 wins vastly exceeded the Vegas prediction on 31.5 wins. Indeed, that was the second biggest over-performance by any team in the conference. We all know which had team had the biggest.
Vegas has the Suns dropping back to 39.5 wins this year. One projection I read said this: “Center Mark Williams is expected to miss roughly the first four months following labrum surgery, opening early minutes for players like Khaman Maluach.” If you are like me, you have never heard of (and cannot pronounce) Maluach. That alone makes the Suns an UNDER for me. Best friend Dave, who lives in Tucson, concurs:
“The Suns are setting on Devin Booker, who has been a high-level scorer his entire career…all of it in Phoenix. The frontcourt isn’t strong enough. The addition of Luke Kennard gives them another shooter to go along with Book and Colin Gillespie. Did they need another shooter? Suns were a nice surprise last year. This year, I say no. Under 39.5 wins.”
Los Angeles Lakers
HDVD — The 2025-26 Lakers outperformed the Vegas prediction of 47.5 win with a surprising 53 – 29 record. They then overcame a bunch of injuries to knock off the Rockets in the first round, before getting swept by OKC in a series that was not as close as 4 – 0 would indicate.
This year Vegas has the Lakers sliding back a bit — good-bye Lebron — to 45.5 wins. Always optimistic Lakers fan Mike disagrees with Vegas:
“Don’t short the Lakers this year boys. Luka and his merry band of young shooters, defenders, rim runners and one very large shot blocker in the middle. I like 50 wins and a 3/4 seed.”
Yup, that is an OVER from Mike. (I think that is Mike’s 27th consecutive “over” for the Lakers.)
Houston Rockets
HDVD — The Rockets 52 wins was slightly less than the 55.5 wins that Vegas projected.
Despite the return of point guard Fred VanVleet, the Rockets are predicted to fall back to 46.5 wins this season. Perhaps Vegas believes that the ageless Kevin Durant will finally start showing his age? If not, having an actual point guard should help the offense, though the defense and rebounding may drop a bit. All in all, I think 46.5 wins underestimates the Rockets. OVER.
Denver Nuggets
HDVD — The best prediction by Vegas last season. The Nuggets’ win over the Spurs in the last game of the regular season put them at 54 wins, right in line with the Vegas prediction of 53.5.
This year, Vegas predicts that the Nuggets will regress a bit to 48.5 games. That regression is probably based on health more than talent because the team still has Jokic, Gordon and Murray, and picked up ex-Spur DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan can still get buckets with the best of them (so long as those buckets, are twos, not threes). Hey, I see the Nuggets also picked up Lonnie Walker IV! I still root for that guy, now in his eighth (!!) year in the NBA. Let’s go OVER on the Nuggets and their two ex-Spurs.
And let’s also root for more Joker passes like this one:
NO-LOOK. CROSSCOURT. BEHIND-THE-BACK DIME.
ARE YOU SERIOUS, JOKER
— NBA (@NBA) October 4, 2026
Minnesota Timberwolves
HDVD — Another good prediction by Vegas last season. The Wolves won 49 games, just missing the 50.5 Vegas prediction..
This season’s prediction is similar: 48.5 games. The big news in Minnesota is the team’s pick-up of LeMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, giving up Naz Reid, Julius Randle and ex-Spur Kyle Anderson. Vegas presumably looked at all the changes, threw up its hands, and said “How many games did they win last year? Go with that.” I did something similar — flipped a coin and it came up “tails”. UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder
HDVD — At the start of last season, the consensus was that OKC was an unstoppable juggernaut. Vegas had the Thunder winning 62.5 games, and they beat that with 64 wins — an outstanding season. Happily ,four of the Thunder’s regular season losses were to one team, and that same team then beat the Thunder four more times in the playoffs. Put another way, the Spurs provided 8 of the Thunder’s total of 22 losses for the regular season and playoffs combined.
Vegas has OKC winning 60.5 games this season. OKC hopes Jalen Williams will be healthier this season, and that 7’3″ rookie Aday Mara can stand up to Victor Wembanyama better than Chet Holmgren did in the playoffs. The Thunder need both things to happen, because OKC surrendered valuable rotation guys Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in the off-season. For me, losing those guys pushes OKC just slightly below 60.5. I have the Thunder as a very slight UNDER.
But the OKC Thunder are still the primary impediment to the Spurs’ quest for the crown.
San Antonio Spurs
HDVD — The Spurs absolutely crushed everyone’s expectations in 2025-2026, including but not limited to Vegas’s 43.5 win prediction. The Spurs’ 62-20 record meant they exceeded the projection by 18.5 “extra” wins — Vegas’s biggest miss of the year, by a lot.
The Vegas 2026-27 prediction for the Spurs is the same as the prediction for the Thunder — 60.5 wins. I don’t think the Spurs will match last season’s 18.5 game over-performance — though a 79 – 3 record would be even more joyous than last season. I am contractually required to say OVER, but this season I will go with just one OVER instead of OVER,OVER, OVER. Let’s bring it on home with a 63-19 record and the number one seed.
By Lee Dresie / Pounding The Rock