By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-23 03:06:40
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
赛季已经过半，是时候看看哪些球队超出了拉斯维加斯的预期，哪些没有。
赛季开始前，我试图在笼式比赛中挑战拉斯维加斯看看我能否预测拉斯维加斯的胜场预测是高了还是低了。我的目标是提升我在2023-2024赛季灾难性的表现，当时我的胜场预测胜负为5胜10负。我唯一正确的决定是没有下注任何实际的钱——这个赛季我重复了这个决定。
现在西部联盟所有球队都已打完41场或更多比赛，赛季过半，让我们来看看我目前在2024-2025赛季的表现如何。对于每支球队，我将列出拉斯维加斯的季前预测、我分析中的一个关键点、我的预测以及目前基于球队41场胜场数翻倍的预计胜场总数。开始吧：
俄克拉荷马雷霆：拉斯维加斯预测——56.5胜
我的关键评论： 除了约什·吉迪，雷霆队基本上保留了去年那支优秀年轻球队的全部成员，并且他们还增加了顶级防守球员亚历克斯·卡鲁索和多才多艺的大个子以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因。57胜25负听起来可行，所以我选择 超过 ，但只是勉强超过。
半程/预计胜场：34/68
这对我来说肯定像是一场胜利，即使我在季前预测中使用了“勉强”这个词。我应该用“摧毁”或“彻底击败”之类的词来形容雷霆队对拉斯维加斯56.5胜预测的表现。
明尼苏达森林狼：拉斯维加斯预测——52.5胜
我的关键评论： 虽然他们会想念唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)拉开空间的能力（以及前马刺球员凯尔·安德森的智慧），但我仍然认为这笔交易对一支上赛季赢了56场比赛的球队来说是一个小幅升级。 超过 。
半程/预计胜场：21/42
森林狼几乎肯定无法达到预计的52.5胜。我听到一位评论员说，交易唐斯让球队失去了鲜明的个性，这似乎是对的。
丹佛掘金：拉斯维加斯预测——51.5胜
我的关键评论： 自从两个赛季前夺冠以来，掘金队已经放弃了宝贵的角色球员布鲁斯·布朗、杰夫·格林和波普(Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)，所有这些都是出于金钱原因……他们是否在约基奇(Nikola Jokic)决定回到塞尔维亚骑马之前浪费了他的黄金时期？ 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：25/50
掘金队的胜场数与拉斯维加斯的预测相符，并且在最近的7场比赛中赢了6场，主要是因为约基奇比以前（他赢得MVP的时候）变得更好了。马努·吉诺比利曾经是史上最好的二轮秀，但约基奇显然已经把马努挤到了第二位。
达拉斯独行侠：拉斯维加斯预测——49.5胜
我的关键评论： 这是一支得分很多，失分也很多的球队。在竞争激烈的西部联盟，我认为疲软的防守会让独行侠比去年略逊一筹。 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：23/46
我的“低于”预测现在看起来还不错，尽管独行侠的进攻和防守都处于中等水平。
菲尼克斯太阳：拉斯维加斯预测——47.5胜
我的关键评论： 尽管伤病不断，太阳上赛季还是赢了49场。这是一个赌凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)能保持相对健康的赌注。 超过 。
半程/预计胜场：21/42
杜兰特已经缺席了9场比赛，所以赌他保持相对健康的赌注没有成功。如果没有杜兰特，这是一支胜率五成的球队，这就是为什么太阳队被卷入很多交易传闻的原因——并且刚刚与犹他爵士完成了一笔奇怪的交易，放弃了他们在2031年的首轮选秀权，换取了3个首轮选秀权（所有这些都可能在选秀末尾）。
孟菲斯灰熊：拉斯维加斯预测——47.5胜
我的关键评论： 在他们的前十名得分手中，只有一个人（小贾伦·杰克逊）[在2023-2024赛季]出场超过50场。一个健康的赛季能让孟菲斯比去年的失落赛季多赢20场比赛吗？很有可能。 超过 。
半程/预计胜场：26/52
正如灰熊最近对马刺的两场胜利所示，孟菲斯再次成为一支顶级球队，这意味着我的“超过”预测几乎板上钉钉。
萨克拉门托国王：拉斯维加斯预测——46.5胜
我的关键评论： 国王队已经拥有非常好的进攻，这就是为什么他们去年赢了46场比赛。德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)值多赢一场比赛吗？ 超过 。
半程/预计胜场：21/42
好吧，事实证明德罗赞可能不会让国王比上赛季多赢一场比赛。然而，在国王更换教练后，他们打得好了很多，在最近的10场比赛中赢了9场。这是真的还是只是“新教练光环”？
新奥尔良鹈鹕：拉斯维加斯预测——46.5胜
我的关键评论： 我认为这个不匹配玩具的岛屿可能会比去年的49胜有所倒退。 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：11/22
“不匹配玩具的岛屿”这个说法太客气了。“充满碎玻璃的水坑”会更准确。我想我可以兑现我的“低于”预测了。
金州勇士：拉斯维加斯预测——44.5胜
我的关键评论： 还有一件事——勇士队还有斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)。 超过 。
半程/预计胜场：21/42
目前，勇士队并列第10，这是附加赛的最后一个席位。而且他们刚刚在主场以40分(40!!)的巨大差距输给了凯尔特人队。也许克莱·汤普森不是这支曾经伟大的球队唯一的问题。
洛杉矶湖人：拉斯维加斯预测——43.5胜
我的关键评论： 即使勒布朗(LeBron James)和戴维斯(Anthony Davis)相对健康，湖人上赛季也只赢了47场比赛，并没有进入西部前六。你会赌湖人两名最好的球员再有一个健康的赛季吗？ 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：22/44
由于野火导致比赛取消，湖人只打了40场比赛，所以他们可能会在半程达到23胜。但他们基本上仍然是一支胜率五成的球队，赢几场，输几场，但没什么了不起的。而且这是在戴维斯和勒布朗都参加了40场中的37场的情况下。如果拉斯维加斯对两人下半赛季是否都能像上半赛季那样参加超过90%的比赛进行胜负预测，我会选择低于。因此，我坚持我本赛季的 低于 预测。
休斯顿火箭：拉斯维加斯预测——43.5胜
我的关键评论： 火箭队去年以41胜41负的五成胜率让很多人感到惊讶。这大大超出了31.5胜的拉斯维加斯预测。 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：28/56
火箭队今年也让很多人感到惊讶——可能是我最糟糕的“低于”预测。伊梅·乌多卡(Ime Udoka)真的会执教篮球，又一个成功的波波维奇弟子。
洛杉矶快船：拉斯维加斯预测——39.5胜
我的关键评论： 快船队失去了保罗·乔治(Paul George)，却什么也没得到。六年前，当科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)想离开圣安东尼奥时，马刺球迷很沮丧，但马刺可能躲过了一劫。 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：23/46
另一个糟糕的预测。尽管伦纳德几乎没有上场，快船队很可能会超出拉斯维加斯的预测。另一支拥有优秀教练的球队，这里是泰伦·卢(Tyronn Lue)。
圣安东尼奥马刺：拉斯维加斯预测——36.5胜。
我的关键评论： 如果你读过《Pounding the Rock》，你就了解马刺。除了 超过 之外，说什么都是亵渎。这会让他们以“没人想打的球队”的身份进入附加赛吗？那会很酷。
半程/预计胜场：19/38
尽管最近状态低迷，马刺队已经展现了巨大的进步，并且他们可以与任何球队竞争——例如，圣诞节在麦迪逊广场花园对阵尼克斯的比赛。他们本可以凭借一些第四节的领先优势再多赢几场，包括对阵尼克斯的比赛。我希望看到他们能够争夺季后赛席位，这样年轻球员就能体验到在这种类型的比赛中拼搏的经验。
犹他爵士：拉斯维加斯预测——29.5胜
我的关键评论： 我刚知道帕蒂·米尔斯(Patty Mills)在爵士队！但他们错误地把他列为6英尺2英寸。我认为爵士和米尔斯都是 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：10/20
爵士队的表现甚至比拉斯维加斯预测的还要糟糕，这使得我的“低于”预测看起来不错。他们应该多让米尔斯上场。
波特兰开拓者：拉斯维加斯预测——22.5胜
我的关键评论： 我预计开拓者会摆烂，希望能赢得库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)的乐透签。 低于 。
半程/预计胜场：13/26
开拓者的表现比预测的要好，这可能会让他们失去弗拉格。他们一定对斯科特·亨德森(Scoot Henderson)感到高兴，在经历了一个糟糕的新秀赛季后，他似乎正在兑现选秀前的炒作。
总结
目前，我有大约6胜、6负和3个待定。虽然不是很好，但这将比去年有所进步。就像马刺一样，“比去年有所进步”对我来说就像一场胜利。
点击查看原文：Revisiting 2024-25 over-under projections for the Western Conference
Revisiting 2024-25 over-under projections for the Western Conference
It’s the midway point of the season, so it’s time to see which teams are exceeding Vegas’s expectations and which ones are not.
Before the season started, I attempted to battle Las Vegas in a cage match to see if I could predict whether the Vegas over/under predictions were going to be over or under. My goal was to improve on my disastrous 2023-2024 season performance when I wound up with 5 wins and 10 losses on my over/under predictions. My only good decision was to not bet any actual money — a decision I repeated this season.
With all the Western Conference teams at or above 41 games, the halfway point of the season, let’s see how I am doing thus far for the 2024-2025 season. For each team, I will set forth the Vegas preseason prediction, a key point from my analysis, my prediction, and the projected win total now based on just doubling the team’s 41 game win total. Here goes:
OKC Thunder: Vegas prediction — 56.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Thunder has basically everyone back from last year’s excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein. 57-25 sounds doable, so I will go with OVER, but just barely.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 34/68
This one sure looks like a win for me, even though I used the words “just barely” in my preseason prediction. I should have used a word such as OKC will “destroy” or “eviscerate” the Vegas 56.5 win prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Vegas prediction — 52.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: While they will miss KAT’s ability to stretch the floor (and the smarts of ex-Spur Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson), I still think the trade will be a slight upgrade for a team that won 56 games last season. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
The T’wolves almost certainly will fail to meet the projected 52.5 wins. I heard a commentator say that the trade of KAT left the team without a distinctive personality, and that seems about right.
Denver Nuggets: Vegas prediction — 51.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Since winning it all two seasons ago, the Nuggets have given up valuable role players Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and KCP, all for money reasons… Are they wasting Jokic’s prime before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses? UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 25/50
The Nuggets are on pace to match the Vegas prediction, and have won 6 of their last 7, largely because Jokic has become even better than he was before (when he was winning MVPs). Manu Ginobili used to be the best second round pick ever, but Joker has clearly moved Manu to second place.
Dallas Mavericks: Vegas prediction — 49.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: This is a team that will score a lot and give up a lot. In the tough Western Conference, I think the weak defense will have the Mavs slightly down from last year. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 23/46
My “under” prediction looks pretty good right now, though the Mavs’ offense and defense are both middle of the pack.
Phoenix Suns: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
KD has already missed 9 gams, so the bet on him to stay relatively healthy did not pan out. Without KD playing, this is a .500 team, which is why the Suns are being mentioned in a lot of trade rumors – and just completed a weird trade with Utah, giving up their first round pick in 2031 for 3 first round picks (all likely to be at the end of the draft).
Memphis Grizzlies: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Of their top ten PPG scorers, only one (Jaron Jackson, Jr.) played more than 50 games [in 2023-2024]. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year’s lost season? Probably. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 26/52
As shown by the Grizzlies’ two recent wins against the Spurs, Memphis is once again a top team, which means that my “over” prediction seems almost like a lock.
Sacramento Kings: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
Well, it turns out that DeMar DeRozan may not get the Kings to win one more game than the previous season. However, after the Kings changed coaches, they have played much better, winning 9 of their last 10. Is it real or just a “new coach halo”?
New Orleans Pelicans: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year’s 49 wins. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 11/22
“Island of mis-matched toys” was much too kind. ”Mud puddle filled with broken glass” would have been more accurate. I think I can cash my “under” prediction.
Golden State Warriors: Vegas prediction — 44.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: One more thing — the Warriors still have Steph Curry. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
At the moment, the Warriors are tied for 10th, the last spot in the Play-In Tourney. And they just lost at home to the Celtics by forty (40!!) to the Celtics. Maybe Klay Thompson was not the only problem with this once-great franchise.
Los Angeles Lakers: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Even with relatively healthy seasons from Lebron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn’t finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers’ best two players? UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 22/44
Because of wildfire caused cancellations, the Lakers have played just 40 games, so they may get to 23 wins at the halfway point. But they remain basically a .500 team, winning a few, losing a few, but nothing great. And that is with both AD and Lebron playing in 37 of 40 games. If Vegas did an over/under on whether both play in over 90% of the games in the second half as they did in the first, I would take the under. And therefore I stick with my UNDER for the season.
Houston Rockets: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Rockets surprised a lot of people last year by going .500 at 41-41. This blew away the 31.5 win Vegas prediction. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 28/56
The Rockets have surprised a lot of people this year too — probably my worst “under” prediction. Ime Udoka really can coach basketball, another successful Pop protege.
Los Angeles Clippers: Vegas prediction — 39.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably dodged a bullet. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 23/46
Another bad prediction. Despite Kawhi barely playing, the Clippers will likely blow past the Vegas prediction. Another team blessed with excellent coaching, here by Ty Lue.
San Antonio Spurs: Vegas prediction — 36.5 wins.
MY KEY COMMENT: If you read Pounding the Rock, you know about the Spurs. It would also be blasphemy to say anything but OVER. Will it get them to the Play-In Tournament as the Team No One Wants to Play? That would be cool.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS:19/38
Despite the recent slump, the Spurs have shown vast improvement and that they can compete with everyone — for instance, the Christmas Day game against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. And they could have several more wins by closing the deal on some fourth quarter leads, including the Knicks game. I would like to see them in the hunt for a playoff spot just so the youngsters get the experience of playing in that type of game down the stretch.
Utah Jazz: Vegas prediction — 29.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6’2”. I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 10/20
The Jazz have been even worse than Vegas predicted, making my “under” prediction look good. They should play Patty Mills more.
Portland Trail Blazers: Vegas prediction — 22.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 13/26
The Blazers have been better than predicted, which may cost them Cooper Flagg. They have to be happy with Scoot Henderson, who seems to be living up to the pre-draft hype before a rotten rookie year.
SUMMARY
At the moment, I have about 6 wins, 6 losses and 3 TBDs (to be determined). While not great, it will be an improvement on last year. Like the Spurs, “an improvement on last year” feels like a win to me.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock