By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-10-07 02:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
我的朋友特雷弗在2020年，也就是疫情最严重的时候，加入了我的律所。他入职时，他部门的负责人给我发了条信息说：“嘿，李，我给你找来一个篮球运动员！”原来，特雷弗曾在费尔里·狄金生大学打过NCAA一级联赛，大二时大部分比赛首发，大三和大四学年则场场首发，还入选了分区最佳阵容二队并担任队长。（这些信息都来自球队官网，不是特雷弗自己说的。）所以，没错，特雷弗的部门负责人确实“给我找来一个篮球运动员”。
特雷弗是继鲍勃·贝内特 (Bob Bennett) 之后，我们律所第一位前NCAA一级联赛球员。鲍勃曾在迪恩·史密斯 (Dean Smith) 执教的第一支北卡罗来纳大学队中担任首发前锋（与比利·坎宁安 (Billy Cunningham) 搭档）。那得是多久以前的事了呢：鲍勃大学毕业后被尼克斯队选中，但他却决定去读法学院，因为在那个年代（上世纪60年代），当律师比在NBA打球更赚钱。在作为一名遗嘱认证诉讼律师取得了非常成功的职业生涯并成为公认的好人后，鲍勃如今已经退休。退休后，他从洛杉矶搬到了……圣安东尼奥郊外。马刺加油！
说回特雷弗。他一加入律所，我立刻就联系了他。我们在一个室外篮球场见了面——这是我们在封锁期间能做到的最好了。因为和2020年的许多人一样，他是通过Zoom线上面试入职的，所以我成了律所里第一个在线下见到特雷弗本人的人。我们比了比我在疫情期间发明的各种投篮游戏，具体情况在这里有记载。其中一个游戏我称之为“连续命中最多”。当特雷弗在右翼大约16英尺外连续命中26记跳投时，我就知道我麻烦大了。是的，连续26个中距离跳投。（那场比赛他赢了。）
后来我们还比了其他运动，包括高尔夫。上周末打高尔夫时，特雷弗问我什么时候会做我的西部联盟战绩超/低预期预测——他说他一直很喜欢看。得知至少有一个人喜欢这些预测，那我就写出来吧。
首先有几点说明。传统上，我总是试图让我预测的超越预期和未达预期的球队数量保持平衡。然而，这种平衡只在一个封闭系统中才必要，而西部联盟并非如此——他们还要和东部联盟的球队交手。尤其是在这个赛季，西部联盟很可能会有更多球队超越预期，因为他们要和东部打不少比赛。
此外，我尽量不把重点放在某支球队是“好”是“坏”上。问题在于，这支球队会比拉斯维加斯的普遍预测“更好”还是“更差”。
最后，请不要拿着这些预测就跑去Fan Duel或你可能使用的任何其他博彩平台下注。虽然我无法保证我的预测准确无误，但我可以保证，依赖这些预测绝对是个坏主意。当然，也别指望我能像特雷弗在右翼16英尺外那样连续26次命中。
免责声明说完，以下是我对新赛季西部联盟哪些球队的胜场数将超越、哪些将无法达到拉斯维加斯预测值的季前预测。希望你能像特雷弗过去那样喜欢这篇文章。
让我们从上赛季常规赛的战绩排名开始。
俄克拉荷马雷霆
上赛季胜场：68
维加斯预测：62.5
雷霆队在2024-25赛季的常规赛表现堪称历史级别。他们场均净胜对手12.9分，打破了1971-72赛季那支取得69胜13负并最终夺冠的湖人队所创下的纪录。换句话说，根据他们的净胜分来看，雷霆上赛季的胜场数甚至可能还有点偏低。而他们上赛季的阵容全部回归，场均出场时间排名前八的球员全都不超过26岁。队内第三好的球员切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 只打了32场比赛。尽管如此，维加斯预测他们本赛季的胜场数会减少5.5场。抱歉，我实在不这么认为。虽然雷霆可能无法再次拿到68胜，但他们完全有可能做到——即便做不到，也应该会非常接近。 高于预期
休斯顿火箭
上赛季胜场：52
维加斯预测：55.5
火箭队上赛季以西部第二的成绩让许多人大吃一惊，但有六支球队的胜场数与火箭的52胜相差在四场以内。其中两支球队最终掉入了附加赛。上赛季火箭队中场均出场时间最多的三名球员本赛季将不会为球队效力：弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanFleet) 刚刚遭遇了赛季报销的前十字韧带撕裂，而杰伦·格林 (Jaylen Green) 和狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 则被交易。当然，用后两人换来的那位球员，正是维加斯预测火箭本赛季能多赢三场比赛的原因：凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。同样“当然”的是，杜兰特已经37岁了——或者按解说员喜欢说的那样，37岁高龄了。（还有人注意到这个说法吗？）杜兰特那双瘦腿已经跑了百万英里（非官方数据）。虽然我预计杜兰特会再次打出优异表现，但我不认为他能打满60场比赛。在杜兰特可能缺席大量比赛，而范弗利特赛季报销的情况下，火箭队似乎不太可能有足够的控卫组织和三分投射来赢得比上赛季52场更多的比赛，更不用说达到“高于预期”所需的56胜了。 低于预期
洛杉矶湖人
上赛季胜场：50
维加斯预测：47.5
好吧，让我理一理。湖人用贾克森·海斯 (Jaxon Hayes) 换来了德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton)，他们将拥有整个赛季的卢卡·东契奇 (Luca Doncic)——而且卢卡还减掉了20磅的婴儿肥，要知道他在肥胖状态下场均就能得到28分8篮板8助攻——并且他们还有勒布朗·詹姆斯 (Lebron James)。卢卡加入球队后，湖人取得了18胜10负的战绩。而维加斯竟然预测他们会退步2.5个胜场。尽管湖人的首发阵容里没有一个防守出色的球员，我仍然认为他们能追平去年的战绩。这让湖人成为了 高于预期 。
丹佛掘金
上赛季胜场：50
维加斯预测：53.5
我之前对掘金休赛期的分析依然适用：“掘金完成了一笔相当于三换一的交易。他们送走了性格难以捉摸（且薪水过高）的小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter, Jr.)，换来一个可能和他一样出色但肯定更便宜的球员——卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson)。省得你去查了，小波特场均18分7篮板2助攻，三分命中率40%。约翰逊在篮网场均19分4篮板3助攻，三分命中率39%（这还是在没有约基奇给他喂球的情况下）……这笔交易省下的钱让掘金得以重新签回布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)，他是掘金夺冠阵容中的关键一员。他们还用曾经是达里奥·沙里奇 (Dario Saric) 的球员换来了一位真正的替补中锋约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas)。”在那段总结中没有提到的是，掘金还签下了可靠的老将小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway, Jr.)。即便上赛季的掘金队问题重重——包括阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 在第六场比赛中拉伤了腿筋，他们还是把雷霆拖入了抢七大战。又一个 高于预期 。
洛杉矶快船
上赛季胜场：50
维加斯预测：48.5
和掘金一样，快船在休赛期也完成了一笔相当于三换一的交易，送出诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)，得到了布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal)、一位洛佩斯兄弟和约翰·科林斯 (John Collins)。我之前写道：“我不认为快船本赛季会有任何下滑，他们甚至有现实的机会变得更好。”
但在“卡哇伊事件”发生前我是这么写的。虽然我不认为NBA会裁定科怀的合同无效，但联盟完全可能对他进行长时间的禁赛。如果科怀能因此在季后赛时精力更充沛，快船或许不介意这个结果。但这种可能性让我得以将我之前的常规赛预测调整为低于预期。这也让我可以继续我们家神圣的家族传统——为快船的失利而喝彩。我期待着我的快船球迷朋友们发邮件骂我是个黑子。放马过来吧！ 低于预期，低于预期，低于预期
明尼苏达森林狼
上赛季胜场：49
维加斯预测：50.5
维加斯预测森林狼胜场数会增加，这让我感到惊讶。与上赛季相比，唯一重大的变化是失去了宝贵的轮换侧翼球员尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)。虽然安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 可能会有所进步（他已经很出色了），但迈克·康利 (Michael Conley) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 的状态很可能会有所下滑。（戈贝尔不会卫冕年度最佳防守球员，因为，你懂的。）我不认为森林狼能超越上赛季的胜场数，这使得他们成为 低于预期 。
金州勇士
上赛季胜场：48
维加斯预测：45.5
如果说维加斯对明尼苏达的预测高得让我惊讶，那么我对勇士的预测则恰恰相反。上赛季中期得到吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 后，勇士队取得了30胜11负的战绩。如果你算一下（即使你不会算），这相当于整个赛季60胜的水平。乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 的情况似乎也以一份为期两年、金额可观的折中合同得到了圆满解决。如果德雷蒙德、斯蒂芬和吉米这三位三十多岁的老将能保持相对健康，勇士队可能真的会非常出色。我认为勇士队是一个强烈的 高于预期 。
孟菲斯灰熊
上赛季胜场：48
维加斯预测：40.5
又一支在夏天变弱的球队。灰熊队交易了关键首发球员德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，换来了一堆未来的选秀权。如果我对未来选秀权的运作方式理解正确，那么灰熊队本赛季将无法让这些选秀权上场打球，这大概就是维加斯预测他们胜场数会下降7.5场的原因。但这仍然基本是一个五成胜率的战绩，在竞争日益激烈的西部，这个预测显得过于乐观。更重要的是，田纳西州有灰熊吗？孟菲斯应该把队名改成“蓝调队”。除非他们这么做，否则就是 低于预期 。
萨克拉门托国王
上赛季胜场：40
维加斯预测：35.5
为了让国王队重回大众视野，他们休赛期最大的动作就是用一份为期三年的大合同签下了丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroeder)。呃，好吧。纯粹为了好玩，我问了AI关于国王队休赛期的情况，它告诉我：“国王队被认为是自由球员拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 的理想下家，但后卫线人员拥挤，并且需要先解决像马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk) 或德文·卡特 (Devin Carter) 的合同问题。”我猜这就是为什么它被称为“人工”智能吧。是的， 低于预期 。
当然，国王队可能真的会为了签下威斯布鲁克而送走蒙克和卡特。如果那样的话： 远低于预期
达拉斯独行侠
上赛季胜场：39
维加斯预测：39.5
独行侠是那种上赛季的胜场数对本赛季预测参考价值不大的球队。然后维加斯就直接预测独行侠的胜场数会和去年一样。去年，独行侠拥有一个超重版的卢卡，然后交易来了“伤病频发版安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)”，后者随即受伤。我从一个篮球圈的朋友那里听说，这位“伤病频发-安戴”随后还进行了反向卢卡减重法，增重了20磅。我问：“都是肌肉吗？”朋友答：“并不是。”独行侠还完全是走了狗屎运才得到库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，而凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 可能会在全明星周末前后回归，并彻底打乱独行侠在他回归前建立的任何进攻体系。也许维加斯干脆放弃了这次预测，心想：“天知道呢。他们去年赢了多少场？”我也这么办吧。因为39小于39.5，所以： 低于预期
菲尼克斯太阳
上赛季胜场：36
维加斯预测：31.5
凭借杜兰特、德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 和布拉德利·比尔的活力三人组，2024-25赛季的太阳队曾是一支被普遍看好的黑马。专家们（秀个词汇量！）只说对了一半。太阳队梦游般地打完了整个赛季，四年来第四次解雇了他们的教练，交易走了杜兰特，并买断了比尔的合同。在杜兰特的交易中，他们得到的球员和他们剩下的明星布克位置重叠，而后者可能也会作为这次古怪重建的一部分被交易。太阳队希望自己能变得平淡无奇，因为另一个选项是变得糟糕透顶。至于“变得出色”这个选项，并不在他们的考虑范围之内。 低于预期
波特兰开拓者
上赛季胜场：36
维加斯预测：34.5
开拓者引进了我最喜欢的两名球员，带回了队魂级人物达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)，并交易来了伟大的队友朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)。不幸的是，利拉德赛季报销，而霍勒迪作为一名球员状态正在下滑（尽管作为队友依然出色）。开拓者还甩掉了糟糕的队友德安德烈·艾顿，这意味着他们的更衣室氛围应该会好一些。然而对于这支来自我出生地的球队来说不幸的是，篮球比赛不是在更衣室里打的。所以，尽管开拓者可以寄望于他们的年轻球员继续进步，但在西部这个残酷的联盟里，没有足够的天赋，想要边打边学并取得实质性提高是很难的。虽然开拓者可能会有所进步，但我不会为此下任何赌注（或任何其他事情）。我也只会预测 低于预期 。
圣安东尼奥马刺
上赛季胜场：34
维加斯预测：43.5
我都忘了上赛季的马刺队只比西部两支球队——爵士和鹈鹕——战绩好。在二月份失去你最好的球员，往往会损害一支球队的胜场总数。因为那位球员回来了，而且非常优秀，再加上所有读这篇文章的人都知道的其他原因，维加斯预测马刺队在2025-26赛季的进步幅度将超过除一支球队（我们还没提到）之外的所有球队。我有什么资格反对呢？而且，我的合同义务也要求我必须说高于预期，我可不想在“上头的大佬们”决定我的圣诞奖金之前违约。 高于预期，高于预期，高于预期
新奥尔良鹈鹕
上赛季胜场：21
维加斯预测：30.5
还记得鹈鹕队的管理层曾是NBA人人羡慕的对象吗？我也不记得。但是，我确实记得我们中许多人曾认为这是一支在锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 和一群才华横溢的年轻球员带领下，走在明确上升轨道上的球队。好吧，锡安“带领”鹈鹕队去年取得了21场胜利。锡安整个赛季只打了30场比赛，而前马刺球员德章泰·默里 (Dejounte Murray) 只比锡安多打了一场。鹈鹕队只有两名球员出场超过56场，我打赌你叫不出他们的名字。如果你甚至听说过他们，那就算你厉害。伊夫·米西 (Yves Missi)（和莱昂内尔·梅西 (Lionel Messi) 没关系）出战73场，场均9.1分。一个叫杰里迈亚·罗宾逊-厄尔 (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl) 的家伙打了66场，场均6.3分。居然还有人说我写这些东西前不做研究。鹈鹕队本赛季应该会更健康一些，尽管这个标准非常之低。但健康的提升能带来超过9个胜场的进步吗？ 低于预期
犹他爵士
上赛季胜场：17
维加斯预测：18.5
维加斯对犹他寄予厚望。厚望！有多厚？也就多赢一两场，尽管在一个82场的赛程中（其中41场是主场），只赢17或18场是很困难的。就算爵士队输掉所有客场比赛，他们也只需要在主场取得17胜24负就能追平去年的胜场数。而且那些客场比赛中还有一些是对阵东部球队。爵士队必须将他们2026年的首轮选秀权送给雷霆，前提是该选秀权跌出前八顺位。如果它落入前八，犹他将保留这个首轮签，并且不再欠俄克拉荷马城任何选秀权。我不是乐透抽签专家，但我很确定，像爵士队这样预测战绩的球队，无论那些乒乓球怎么跳，都不可能掉出前八顺位。如果爵士队开始打得不错，丹尼·安吉 (Danny Ainge) 会出手阻止这种情况发生。爵士队会拿到他们的选秀权，但我仍然认为他们的胜场会 高于 18.5场。但只是勉强超过。
我刚数了一下我的预测。六个高于预期，九个低于预期。这结果肯定不对。
特雷弗，希望你喜欢！
点击查看原文：Over and undering the 2025-26 Western Conference
Over and undering the 2025-26 Western Conference
My friend Trevor joined my firm in 2020, in the midst of the pandemic. When he was hired, the head of his department sent me a note saying “Hey Lee, I got you a basketball player!” It turns out that Trevor played D-1 ball at Farleigh Dickinson, started most games as a sophomore and started every game in his junior and senior years. Second-team all conference and team captain. (All this information came from the team’s website, not from Trevor.) So yes, the head of Trevor’s department really “got me a basketball player.”
Trevor became the first D-1 hooper at the firm since Bob Bennett, who started at forward (opposite Billy Cunningham) on Dean Smith’s first North Carolina team. This is how long ago that was: Bob was drafted by the Knicks out of college but decided to instead go to law school because being a lawyer was more lucrative than playing in the NBA (in the 1960s). After a very successful career as a probate litigator and all around good guy, Bob is now retired. When he retired, Bob moved from L.A. to … just outside San Antonio. Go Spurs.
Back to Trevor. I immediately reached out to him when he joined the firm. We then met at an outdoor basketball court – the best we could do during the lockdown. Because he was hired over Zoom, as many were in 2020, I was the first person at the firm to meet Trevor in person. We competed in the various shooting contests I had invented during the pandemic, as recounted here. One of those contests I call “Most in a Row.” I knew I was in trouble when Trevor made 26 jumpers in a row from about 16 feet out in the right wing. Yes, 26 consecutive mid-range jumpers. (He won that contest.)
We later competed in other sports, including golf. When we were golfing last weekend, Trevor asked me when I would be doing my Western Conference over and under predictions – he said he always enjoyed them. Upon learning that at least one person enjoys these predictions, here they are.
A few preliminary thoughts. I have traditionally tried to have an even balance between the number of teams I predict to exceed their projections and those I predict won’t. However, that balance is only necessary in a closed system, which the Western Conference is not – the teams also get to play teams in the Eastern Conference. This season in particular, it is certainly possible that more Western Conference teams exceed expectations because they get to play a bunch of games against the East.
Also, I try not to focus on whether a particular team is “good” or “bad.” The question is whether that team will be “gooder” or “badder” than the Las Vegas consensus.
Finally, please do not take these predictions to run out and place bets with Fan Duel or any other betting platform you may use. While I cannot guarantee the accuracy of my predictions, I can guarantee that relying on them is a bad idea. Certainly don’t expect me to be right 26 times in a row like Trevor was from the right wing, 16 feet out.
With those disclaimers out of the way, these are my preseason predictions as to which Western Conference teams will and won’t exceed the win total the folks in Vegas have projected for them. I hope you enjoy this as much as Trevor has in the past.
Let’s start at the top, based on the 2024-2025 regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season’s wins: 68
Vegas over/under: 62.5
OKC’s 2024-25 regular season was one for the ages. The Thunder outscored opponents by 12.9 points per game, breaking the record set by the 1971-72 Lakers, who went 69-13 and won it all. Put another way, the Thunder’s win total last season might have been a bit low based on their point differential. And they have everyone back from last season. Their top eight players in minutes per game were all 26 or younger. Their third best player, Chet Holmgren, played in only 32 games. Nonetheless, Vegas has them winning 5.5 games less this season. Sorry, I just don’t see it. While the Thunder might not win 68 games again, they just might – and even if they don’t, the Thunder will probably come close. OVER
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Last season’s wins: 52
Vegas over/under: 55.5
The Rockets surprised a lot of people by finishing second in the West last season, but six teams finished within four wins of the Rockets’ 52 wins. Two of these teams wound up in the Play-In Tourney. Three of the top Rockets in minutes per game last year won’t play for this season’s team: Fred VanFleet just suffered a season-ending ACL injury, while Jaylen Green and Dillon Brooks were traded. Of course, the guy those two were traded for is why Vegas projects that the Rockets will win three more games this year: Kevin Durant. As a second “of course,” KD is 37 years old – or, as announcers like to say, 37 years of age. (Anyone else notice that?) KD has a million miles on his skinny legs (stats not official). While I expect KD to be excellent again, I don’t expect him to play 60 games. With KD likely to miss a bunch of games and VanFleet out for the season, the Rockets seem unlikely to have enough point-guard play and three-point shooting to win more games than the 52 they won last season, let alone the 56 wins needed to be an “over.” UNDER
Los Angeles Lakers
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 47.5
OK, let me get this straight. The Lakers replaced Jaxon Hayes with Deandre Ayton, they will have Luca Doncic for the entire season – and Luca lost 20 pounds of baby fat from the guy who averaged 28/8/8 while fat – and they still have Lebron James. The Lakers went 18-10 with Luca on the team. And Vegas has them 2.5 games worse. Even though the Lakers will not have a plus defender in their starting line-up, I still see them matching last year’s record. That makes the Lakers an OVER.
Denver Nuggets
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 53.5
My previous analysis of the Nuggets’ off-season still applies: “The Nuggets pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a guy who is probably as good as him and is certainly cheaper – Cam Johnson. So you don’t have to look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 while shooting 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets, and shot 39% from three (without Joker dropping dimes to him). . . . The money the Nuggets saved from that trade allowed them to bring back Bruce Brown, a crucial component of the Nuggets’ championship team. They also traded the player who used to be Dario Saric for an actual back-up center in Jonas Valanciunas.” Not mentioned in that summary was the Nuggets’ pick-up of solid veteran Tim Hardaway, Jr. The Nuggets took OKC to seven games, even with all the warts on last season’s team – including Aaron Gordon straining a hamstring in Game Six. Another OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 48.5
Like the Nuggets, the Clippers pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal during the off-season, giving up Norman Powell, getting Bradley Beal, a Lopez brother, and John Collins. Previously I wrote: ”I don’t expect to see any drop-off for the Clippers this season, and they have a realistic shot at being better.”
But I wrote that before Kawhi-gate. While I don’t expect the NBA to void Kawhi’s contract, the league could certainly suspend him for significant time. The Clippers might not mind that result if Kawhi is fresher for the playoffs. But that possibility allows me to adjust my previous regular season prediction to UNDER. This also allows me to continue to root against the Clippers, a hallowed family tradition. I look forward to the emails from my friends who are Clippers fans calling me a hater. Bring it on! UNDER, UNDER, UNDER
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season’s wins: 49
Vegas over/under: 50.5
The Vegas projection of an improved win total for the T’Wolves surprised me. The only significant change from last season was the loss of valuable rotation wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. While Anthony Edwards may show some improvement (he is already great), Michael Conley and Rudy Gobert are likely to fade a bit. (Gobert will not repeat as Defensive Player of the Year because, well, you know.) I don’t see the T’Wolves improving on last season’s win total, which makes them an UNDER.
Golden State Warriors
Last season’s wins: 48
Vegas over/under: 45.5
While the Vegas projection for Minnesota surprised me for being high, I feel the opposite about the Warriors’ projection. The team went 30-11 after picking up Jimmy Butler in the middle of last season. If you do the math (and even if you don’t), that projects to a 60 win pace for an entire season. It also seems like the Jonathan Kuminga situation worked out OK for everyone with the compromise two-year deal for lots of money. If the mid-30’s threesome of Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy stay relatively healthy, the Warriors might actually be quite good. I have the W’s as a strong OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last season’s wins: 48
Vegas over/under: 40.5
Another team that got worse over the summer. The Grizzlies traded key starter Desmond Bane for a bunch of future draft picks. If I understand how future draft picks work, the Grizzlies won’t be able to play any of them this season, which is presumably why Vegas projects a 7.5 win drop-off this season. But that is still essentially a .500 record, which is optimistic in the improved Western Conference. More importantly, are there any Grizzly Bears in Tennessee? Memphis should change the team name to the Blues. Unless they do, UNDER.
Sacramento Kings
Last season’s wins: 40
Vegas over/under: 35.5
As the big off-season move to make the Kings relevant again, they signed Dennis Schroeder to a large three-year contract. Uh, OK. Just for the fun of it, I asked AI about the Kings’ off-season, and was told this: “The Kings are considered a prime destination for free agent Russell Westbrook, but a logjam at guard and a need to resolve contracts for players like Malik Monk or Devin Carter may need to be addressed first.” I guess that is why they call it “artificial” intelligence. Yeah, UNDER.
Of course, the Kings might just get rid of Monk and Carter in order to sign Westbrook. If that happens: WAY UNDER
Dallas Mavericks
Last season’s wins: 39
Vegas over/under: 39.5
The Mavs are the one team that last season’s wins don’t tell us much about what to expect from this season. Vegas then goes out and projects that the Mavs will have the same number of wins as they had last year. Last year, the Mavs had heavy Luca, traded him for Frequently Injured Anthony Davis, who immediately got injured. I heard from one of my basketball buddies that FI-AD then did the reverse Luca diet, putting on 20 pounds. ”All muscle?” I asked. Basketball buddy: ”Nope.” The Mavs also totally lucked into Cooper Flagg, and Kyrie Irving may return around the All-Star break to completely disrupt whatever offense the Mavs had been running before Kyrie’s return. Maybe Vegas just punted on this prediction and said “Hell, we don’t know. What did they win last year?” I will do the same. Because 39 is less than 39.5: UNDER
Phoenix Suns
Last season’s wins: 36
Vegas over/under: 31.5
With their dynamic trio of KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, the 2024-25 Suns were a popular sleeper pick. The pundits (SAT word!) were partially correct. The Suns sleep-walked through the season, fired their coach for the fourth time in four years, traded away KD, and bought out Beal. In the KD trade, they picked up players who play the same position as Booker, their remaining star, who may be traded as part of this wacky rebuild. The Suns hope to be boring, because the alternative is being terrible. Being good is not one of the available options. UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season’s wins: 36
Vegas over/under: 34.5
The Blazers added two of my favorite players, bringing back franchise icon Damian Lillard and trading for great teammate Jrue Holiday. Unfortunately, Dame is out for the season, and Holiday is fading as a player (though not as a teammate). The Blazers also dumped lousy teammate Deandre Ayton, meaning that their locker room should be a better place. Unfortunately for the team from my birthplace, the locker room is not where the basketball games are played. So while the Blazers can hope that their young players continue to improve, the Western Conference is a tough place to learn on the job without enough talent to meaningfully improve. Although the Blazers could improve, I would not bet any money on it (or anything else). I will also not predict anything other than UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs
Last season’s wins: 34
Vegas over/under: 43.5
I had forgotten that last season’s Spurs beat out only two Western Conference teams – the Jazz and the Pelicans. Losing your best player in February has a tendency to hurt a team’s win total. Because that player is back, and very good, and for other reasons everyone reading this knows about, Vegas has projected the Spurs to improve more in 2025-26 than every other team except one (a team which we have not yet mentioned). Who am I to disagree? I am also contractually obligated to say OVER, and I know better than to breach my contract before “the powers that be” decide on my Christmas bonus. OVER, OVER, OVER
New Orleans Pelicans
Last season’s wins: 21
Vegas over/under: 30.5
Remember when the Pelicans’ organization was the envy of the NBA? Me neither. However, I do remember when many of us thought that this was a team on a clear upward path, led by Zion Williamson and a bunch of talented young players. Well, Zion “led” the Pelicans to 21 wins last year. Zion played only 30 games all season, while ex-Spur Dejounte Murray played in only one more game than Zion. The Pelicans had only two players who played in more than 56 games, and I bet you cannot name them. If you have even heard of them, good for you. Yves Missi (not related to Lionel Messi) played in 73 games, averaging 9.1 PPG. A guy named Jeremiah Robinson-Earl played in 66 games, averaging 6.3 ppg. And people say I don’t do any research before writing these. The Pelicans should be healthier this year, though that is a very low bar. Will improved health lead to an improvement by more than 9 wins? UNDER
Utah Jazz
Last season’s wins: 17
Vegas over/under: 18.5
Vegas has big hopes for Utah. BIG HOPES. How big? One or two more wins, even though it is difficult to only win 17 or 18 games with an 82 game schedule – 41 of which are home games. If the Jazz lose every road game, they only need to go 17- 24 at home to match last year’s win total. And some of those road games will be against Eastern Conference teams. The Jazz have to send their 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder if the pick lands outside the top eight. If it lands inside the top eight, Utah will keep that first-rounder and would no longer owe Oklahoma City any draft pick. I am not a draft lottery expert, but I am pretty sure that teams with a projected record like the Jazz cannot fall out of the top eight picks, no matter what happens with the ping-pong balls. If the Jazz start playing well, Danny Ainge will put the kibosh on that. The Jazz will get their pick, but I still think they will be OVER 18.5 wins. But barely.
I just counted my predictions. Six over, nine under. No way that will be right.
Trevor, I hope you enjoyed this!
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock