By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-01-19 19:16:51
西部联盟的几乎每支球队如今都已打完了常规赛的一半赛程。例如，随着马刺在周六晚赢下“蚁人”与维克托的超级巨星对决，他们已经完成了82场赛程中的42场，并取得了令人惊讶的29胜13负的优异战绩，高居西部第二。赛季过半，正是重温我那篇季前赛胜场数预测文章的好时机。
每当我想找自己以前的文章时，我都会去谷歌搜索，输入“Dresie Pounding”再加上文章的主题。比如，如果我输入“Dresie Pounding Lottery Victor”，就会得到这篇文章，内容是关于马刺在2023年5月赢得维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 乐透签的。
随着AI革命的到来，谷歌的搜索结果现在会包含AI对文章的总结。以下就是我搜索我那篇《2025-26赛季胜场数预测》文章时，谷歌给出的AI总结。
AI 概述
“Dresie Pounding Over Under”指的是NBA作家 李·德雷西 (Lee Dresie) 在 Pounding the Rock 博客上发表的系列文章，他在文中分析并预测NBA球队（尤其是西部联盟）的赛季胜场数能否超过（Over）或低于（Under）拉斯维加斯的季前赛盘口，并常常幽默地记录他对自己心爱的圣安东尼奥马刺及其他球队预测的成败。对于关注德雷西预测以及球队表现与预期对比的马刺球迷来说，这是一个很受欢迎的系列。
据说AI的电脑大脑里储存了全人类的知识，但它仍然将我的文章描述为“幽默”且“受欢迎”。这可太酷了。我真心希望当AI接管世界并决定在计算机革命后的新时代哪些人类值得活下来时，它能记住这些赞美——这又是一场不会被电视转播的革命。
当我发现AI会在谷歌搜索后为我的文章提供总结时，我让它为我那篇《2025-26赛季胜场数预测》文章的每个段落提供一句总结。不到一秒钟，总结就出现在我的屏幕上。以下是它对前三个引言段落的总结：
- 作者以一则关于他朋友特雷弗打球背景的幽默个人轶事开篇，为预测奠定了轻松的基调。
- 他解释了自己为西部联盟做胜场数预测的传统，以及为何本赛季要再次进行预测。
- 他指出，他的目标并非评判球队是“好”是“坏”，而是判断他们能否超越拉斯维加斯给出的预测胜场数。
在我们重温我对各队的预测时，我会先给出AI对我季前赛预测的一句话总结。然后，我会对每个预测发表我的评论：这是我首次尝试将AI的智慧与我的智慧相结合（此处有反讽）。胜负场次将反映球队在打完41场比赛后的战绩，即常规赛的真正中点。与我的季前赛预测一样，我们将从卫冕冠军开始。
AI 对雷霆的总结 ：“由于回归的天才球员和上赛季的统治级表现，雷霆预计将超过他们62.5胜的预测线。”
我的高见 ：雷霆目前战绩为35胜8负，有望取得68胜，轻松证明了我“高于”预测的正确性。当然，那8场失利中有3场是拜马刺所赐。雷霆还输给了一支强大的森林狼、一支意想不到的强队太阳、表现超预期的开拓者以及不太强的黄蜂。在周六晚的第42场比赛中，雷霆输给了热火，延续了他们近期的低迷表现。我仍然会选“高于”，但赛季初那个创造历史最佳战绩的梦想已经破灭了。
AI 对火箭的总结 ：尽管引进了凯文·杜兰特，但由于关键球员的伤病和存疑的后卫深度，火箭被预测将低于他们55.5胜的预测线。
我的高见 ：火箭目前25胜15负，还差一场比赛就到赛季中点，那场比赛将在周二对阵马刺。即使他们赢了（我希望别），换算下来也就是52胜的水平。我的“低于”预测看起来很稳，特别是因为凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 还没遭遇那每年都会让他缺席几周的伤病。37岁的KD再次打出了极佳表现：场均26分，投篮命中率高达51/40/87%。如果他缺阵数周，对火箭的胜场数可不是什么好消息。
AI 对湖人的总结 ：随着德安德烈·艾顿和卢卡·东契奇等新援的加入提振了预期，湖人被预测将达到47.5胜的“高于”线。
我的高见 ：湖人目前25胜16负，让他们有望成为我预测的又一支“高于”的球队。但他们过去六场输了五场，似乎每场比赛都有新球员受伤，而且勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的经纪人刚在一个播客节目上建议湖人应该交易奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)。所以，虽然单看战绩我的预测正在朝着正确的方向发展，但如果允许我改的话，我可能会改变我的预测。拉斯维加斯也同意我的看法，因为湖人的胜场盘口已经下调到了46.5。
AI 对掘金的总结 ：由于休赛期的运作改善了阵容深度和角色球员，掘金被视为53.5胜的“高于”候选者。
我的高见 ：我预测的“高于”与掘金至今的表现相符：28胜13负，换算成整个赛季就是56胜。目前我4-0了！令人惊讶的是，即使在尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 缺阵的情况下，掘金也表现出色，在他缺席的比赛中取得了7胜4负的战绩。就像马刺在维克托缺阵或有上场时间限制时打得不错一样，掘金在没有约基奇（以及阿龙·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)）的情况下也做到了。
AI 对快船的总结 ：由于科怀·伦纳德的情况存在不确定性，快船被预测将低于48.5胜。
我的高见 ：尽管他们最近打得更好了，但快船目前战绩仅为18胜23负，这意味着我的预测战绩来到了5胜0负。而且快船刚刚宣布科怀 (Kawhi) 将因“膝盖不适”缺席接下来两场比赛。NBA尚未就他是否应该因那起涉嫌规避工资帽规则的虚假营销工作阴谋而被禁赛做出裁决。Intuit球馆的好戏真多！
AI 对森林狼的总结 ：由于阵容变动和潜在的状态回落，森林狼预计将低于他们50.5胜的预测线。
我的高见 ：我的第一个失误！森林狼在赛季中点的战绩是27胜14负，尽管最近两连败，他们仍然领先于预测的节奏。当然，如果马刺没有在明尼阿波利斯两次挥霍巨大领先优势，森林狼的战绩就会是25胜18负，而我的预测战绩就是6-0。得了吧马刺，帮我个忙啊！（周六的胜利算是个开始。）
AI 对勇士的总结 ：凭借坚实的老将核心以及上赛季交易后的表现，勇士被预测将超过45.5胜。
我的高见 ：勇士在赛季中点的战绩是22胜19负，这意味着他们略低于季前赛的预测。不幸的是，我不能把他们中点之后取得的两场胜利算进来，那两场胜利让他们的战绩变成了24胜19负。他们最近6场赢了5场，这五场胜利平均净胜对手近20分。斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 依然伟大。尽管从技术上讲我这个预测目前是错的，但我仍然会选“高于”。
AI 对灰熊的总结 ：在交易走一名关键首发、削弱了阵容后，灰熊被预测将低于40.5胜。
我的高见 ：这个预测对我来说又是一场胜利。孟菲斯目前18胜23负，换算下来是36胜的水平。持续上演的贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 肥皂剧毫无帮助，而且我认为他没有多少交易价值。其他球队会愿意为他付出什么筹码呢？
AI 对国王的总结 ：尽管休赛期有一些引援，但可能不会带来太大改变，国王预计将低于35.5胜。
我的高见 ：对于这支可悲的球队，我预测“低于”还需要邀功吗？赛季中点12胜29负，此后又输了两场。这里没什么好看的，散了吧。
AI 对独行侠的总结 ：考虑到伤病隐患和阵容的不确定性，独行侠被视为39.5胜的“低于”球队。
我的高见 ：达拉斯在赛程过半时战绩为15胜26负，意味着到目前为止我又赢了一次。库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 很可能会终结马刺对年度最佳新秀的垄断。但还有谁记得那次NBA选秀乐透抽签，马刺是站到最后的两支球队之一？如果马刺当时组成了维克托-卡斯尔-弗拉格的三巨头，NBA恐怕就要炸了。就差那么一点点。
AI 对太阳的总结 ：在一片混乱的赛季中，伴随着教练更迭和阵容动荡，太阳被预测将低于31.5胜。
我的高见 ：我的第一个重大失误，但我认为其他人也都看走眼了。太阳失去了KD和布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal)，却取得了24胜17负的战绩，相当于48胜的水平。没人能预料到，拥有一群彼此喜欢、每场都拼尽全力的球员，会比反过来的情况——也就是去年的太阳——要好得多。
AI 对开拓者的总结 ：由于关键球员受伤以及所在分区的激烈竞争，开拓者被预测将低于他们34.5胜的预测线。
我的高见 ：我连续两次预测失误，因为开拓者在赛季中点的战绩是出人意料的19胜22负，现在已经提升到22胜22负。德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 很可能赢得最快进步球员奖，他场均贡献26分、7个篮板和7次助攻。而他的生涯平均数据呢？13分/6篮板/3助攻。哇哦。
AI 对马刺的总结 ：随着队内最佳球员回归以及预期的进步，马刺被看好将超过43.5胜。
我的高见 ：AI的总结低估了我的热情。我说的是高于，高于，高于！马刺赛季中点的战绩是28胜13负，现在是29胜13负，今天很有机会拿下第30场胜利。高于，高于，高于！
AI 对鹈鹕的总结 ：尽管健康状况有所改善，但由于进步幅度可能不够大，鹈鹕被预测将低于30.5胜。
我的高见 ：我的又一个精准判断：鹈鹕赛季中点的战绩是9胜32负，此后他们又取得了1胜3负。他们还交易掉了可能是2026年状元签的选秀权，只为从2025年的第23顺位向上交易到第13顺位。唯一比国王更可悲的球队。
AI 对爵士的总结 ：爵士被预测将超过18.5胜，尽管可能只是勉强超过，从而保住他们那个否则将送给雷霆的前八保护选秀权。
我的高见 ：爵士已经拿下了14场胜利，让他们有望赢得28场。丹尼·安吉 (Danny Ainge) 足够聪明，会把跌出选秀前八的风险降到最低，这意味着随着赛季的进行，爵士最好的球员们很可能会出现一些模糊不清的伤病。（看看他们今天对阵马刺比赛的伤病报告就知道了。）
结论 ：嘿，我今年的表现比往年好。如果赛季在各队打完41场比赛的中点就结束，我的预测战绩将是11胜4负。当然，赛季还在继续，所有被我预测“高于”的球队都乐见于此。而其他球队，比如国王和鹈鹕，恐怕巴不得现在就收工大吉了。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Teaming up with AI to revisit my preseason over/under predictions at the season’s midpoint
Teaming up with AI to revisit my preseason over/under predictions at the season’s midpoint
Virtually every team in the Western conference has now completed half of the regular season. For instance, with the Spurs winning the Ant vs. Victor superstar contest Saturday night, the Spurs have now played 42 games of the 82 game schedule with a surprisingly good record of 29-13, good for second in the West. The halfway point of the season is a good time to revisit my preseason over-under prediction article.
Whenever I want to find one of my old articles, I go to Google and type in “Dresie Pounding” and then the subject of the article. For instance, if I type in, “Dresie Pounding Lottery Victor,” I get this article about the Spurs winning the Victor Wembanyama lottery in May 2023.
With the AI revolution, the Google search result now includes AI’s summary of the article. This is the AI summary that resulted from my Google search for my 2025-26 Over/Under Prediction article.
AI Overview
“Dresie Pounding Over Under” refers to NBA writer Lee Dresie’s recurring articles on the Pounding the Rock blog, where he analyzes and predicts whether NBA teams (especially Western Conference) will exceed (Over) or fall short of (Under) Vegas’s preseason win total odds, often humorously documenting his hits and misses for the San Antonio Spurs and others. It’s a popular series for Spurs fans following Dresie’s predictions and reviews of team performance against expectations.”
AI purportedly has all of human knowledge buried within its computer brain, and still describes my articles as both “humorous” and “popular”. That’s pretty cool. I really hope AI remembers those compliments when it takes over the world and decides which humans deserve to live in the New Age after the computer revolution — yet another revolution that will not be televised.
When I discovered that AI is providing summaries of my articles after a Google search, I asked it to provide a one sentence summary of each paragraph of my 2025-26 Over/Under Prediction article. In less than a second, that summary was on my screen. Here is the summary of the first three introductory paragraphs:
- The author opens with a humorous personal anecdote about his friend Trevor’s basketball-playing background, setting a light tone for the predictions.
- He explains his tradition of making over/under win total predictions for the Western Conference and why he’s doing them again this season.
- He notes that his goal isn’t to judge if teams are “good” or “bad” but whether they’ll exceed Las Vegas’s projected win totals.
As we revisit my predictions for each team, I will start by providing AI’s one-sentence summary of my preseason prediction for that team. I will then provide my commentary on each prediction: my first effort at combining AI’s brilliance with mine (sarcasm intended). The win-loss totals will reflect the team’s record after 41 games, the true midpoint of the regular season. As with my preseason predictions, we will start at the top with the defending champs.
AI OKC SUMMARY: “The Thunder are expected to go over their projected 62.5 wins due to returning talent and last season’s dominance.”
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: OKC is 35-8 and on pace to win 68 games, easily justifying my “over” prediction. Of course, three of those seven losses were to the Spurs. The Thunder also lost to a good T’Wolves team, an unexpectedly good Suns team, the-better-than-expected Blazers and the not-very-good Hornets. In their 42nd game Saturday night, OKC lost to the Heat, continuing a disappointing stretch for them. I would still take the “over”, but the early dreams of a best-ever record are gone.
AI ROCKETS SUMMARY: The Rockets are predicted to go under their 55.5 win projection because of key injuries and questionable guard depth despite adding Kevin Durant.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: The Rockets are 25-15 with one game to play to reach their mid-point, which will be on Tuesday against the Spurs. Even if they win that one (I hope they don’t), that translates to a 52 win pace. My “under” prediction looks good, especially because Kevin Durant hasn’t suffered the annual injury that keeps him out for a few weeks. 37-year old KD has once again been playing extremely well: 26 ppg on 51/40/87 percent shooting. Losing him for several weeks would not help the Rockets win total.
AI LAKERS SUMMARY: The Lakers are projected to hit the over of 47.5 wins, with additions like Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic boosting expectations.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: The Lakers are 25-16, putting them on pace to be another “over” team as predicted. But they have lost five of their last six, seemingly have a new player injured every game, and LeBron James’ agent just suggested on a podcast that the Lakers should trade Austin Reaves. So while my prediction is on track to be correct if we just look at the record, I would probably change my prediction if I were allowed to do so. Vegas agrees, as the Lakers’ over-under has moved down to 46.5.
AI NUGGETS SUMMARY: Nuggets are seen as an over candidate at 53.5 wins thanks to offseason moves that improved depth and role players.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: My prediction of “over” matches the Nuggets’ performance so far: 28-13, translating to 56 wins for the season. I am 4-0 so far! Amazingly, the Nuggets have held up well even with Nikola Jokic out of the lineup, going 7-4 with Joker out. Just as the Spurs played well without Victor in the line-up, or on a minutes restriction, the Nuggets have done the same without Joker (as well as Aaron Gordon).
AI CLIPPERS SUMMARY: The Clippers are predicted to go under 48.5 wins, with uncertainty around Kawhi Leonard’s situation cited as a key factor.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: While they have been playing better recently, the Clippers are still only 18-23, meaning I am up to 5-0. And the Clippers just announced Kawhi will miss the next two games with “knee irritation”. The NBA has yet to rule on whether he should be suspended for the fake marketing job conspiracy that allegedly allowed the team to skirt salary cap rules. Fun times in the Intuit Dome!
AI TIMBERWOLVES SUMMARY: The Timberwolves are expected to finish under their 50.5 win projection due to roster changes and potential regression.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: My first miss! The T’wolves were 27-14 at their midpoint, and they are still ahead of pace despite losing their last two games. Of course, if the Spurs had not blown two big leads in Minneapolis, the T’wolves would be 25-18 and I would be 6-0. C’mon Spurs, throw me a bone! (Saturday’s win was a start.)
AI WARRIORS SUMMARY: The Warriors are forecast to go over 45.5 wins on the strength of a solid veteran core and their post-trade performance last season.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: The Warriors were 22-19 at the midpoint, meaning they are barely under their preseason projection. Unfortunately, I don’t get credit for their two wins after the midpoint, pushing them to 24-19. They have also won 5 of 6, with those five wins by almost 20 points per game. Steph Curry is still great. Even though I technically am losing this one, I would still take the over.
AI GRIZZLIES SUMMARY: The Grizzlies are predicted to go under 40.5 wins after trading away a key starter and weakening their roster.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: This one is also a win for me. Memphis is 18-23, translating to a 36 win pace. The ongoing Ja Morant soap opera isn’t helping, and I don’t think he has much trade value. What would another team give up for him?
AI KINGS SUMMARY: The Kings are expected to go under 35.5 wins despite some offseason additions that may not move the needle much.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: Do I even get credit for predicting “under” for this sad franchise? 12-29 at the mid-point plus two more losses since. Nothing to see here, just move along.
AI MAVS SUMMARY: The Mavericks are seen as an under team at 39.5 wins given injury concerns and roster uncertainty.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: Dallas was 15-26 at the break, meaning another win for me so far. Cooper Flagg will likely break the Spurs’ run on Rookies of the Year. But who else remembers the NBA draft lottery where the Spurs were one of the two teams standing at the end? The NBA would have imploded if the Spurs had a Victor-Castle-Flagg trifecta. Missed it by that much.
AI SUNS SUMMARY: The Suns are projected to go under 31.5 wins amid a chaotic season of coaching changes and roster turnover.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: My first big miss, but I think everyone else missed this one too. The Suns lost KD and Bradley Beal, and are 24-17, a 48 win pace. No one predicted that having players who like each other and play hard all the time is better than the opposite — last year’s Suns.
AI BLAZERS SUMMARY: The Trail Blazers are predicted to go under their 34.5 projection because of injuries to key players and a tough conference.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: Two misses in a row for me, as the Blazers midpoint record was a surprisingly competitive 19-22, now up to 22-22. Deni Avdija is likely to win Most Improved Player, averaging 26 points, 7 boards and 7 assist. His career averages? 13/6/3. Wow.
AI SPURS SUMMARY: The Spurs are picked to go over 43.5 wins as they rebound with their best player returning and expectations of improvement.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: AI’s summary underestimated my enthusiasm. I said OVER, OVER, OVER. The Spurs’ midpoint record was 28-13, now 29-13 with a good chance for win 30 today. OVER, OVER, OVER.
AI PELICANS SUMMARY: The Pelicans are forecast to go under 30.5 wins despite better health, because the improvement likely won’t be large enough.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: Another good call by me: the Pelicans’ midpoint record was 9-32, and they’ve gone 1-3 since. They also traded what may be the top pick in the 2026 draft to move up from the 23rd pick in the 2025 draft to get the 13th pick. The one sadder franchise than the Kings.
AI JAZZ SUMMARY: The Jazz are projected to go over 18.5 wins, though just barely, and retain their top-8 protected draft pick otherwise owed to the Thunder.
MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS: The Jazz already have 14 wins, putting them on a pace to win 28. Danny Ainge is smart enough to minimize the risk of falling out of the top eight in the draft, meaning that the best Jazz players are likely to have some vague injuries crop up as the season goes on. (Just look at their injury report for today’s game against the Spurs.)
CONCLUSION: Hey, I am doing better this year than in years past. If the season ended at the 41 game midpoint for each team, I would be at 11 wins, and 4 losses. Of course, the season goes on, and all of the “over” teams are glad it does. Other teams, like the Kings and Pelicans, would probably be happy just to call oft the whole thing.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock