By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-10-22 03:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
去年的预测不太准，所以今年再试一次吧！
每年这个时候，我都会对即将到来的 NBA 赛季做出一些预测，重点关注西部联盟。五年前，由于记不清的原因，我决定以推特的方式进行预测，每支球队的字数限制在 140 字符以内（包括单词之间的空格）。这导致了像 2019-2020 赛季马刺队这样的总结：
“我们的马刺！很多优秀/非常优秀的球员，但没有一个排名前 20。最能发挥这种天赋的教练？波波维奇，当之无愧。延续连胜纪录吧！第八名 (139 字符)”
啊，那是多么美好的日子——“连胜纪录”指的是马刺队连续进入季后赛。这个纪录在次年春天被终结，当时疫情导致那个赛季停摆，马刺队的战绩为 27 胜 36 负，这也促使我写了这篇文章：
“今年的马刺队就像《卷发女孩》 —— 当他们状态好的时候，他们确实非常棒，但当他们状态不好的时候，他们就糟透了。”
在上个赛季开始之前，我预测了西部联盟的每支球队最终的胜场数是高于还是低于拉斯维加斯的季前预测。我的预测结果如何？用一个词来形容——糟糕透顶。五次预测正确，十次预测错误。我唯一明智的做法就是没有把我预测变成真正的金钱赌注。正如我当时所说：
“所以，这将是我是否有足够的信心（或者说是愚蠢）把钱押在上面，我会选择高于还是低于预测。(我没有。)“
为了弥补上个赛季的惨败，我将重整旗鼓。我将再次：1. 预测每支球队的胜场数是否会超过拉斯维加斯的预测，以及 2. 不会把我预测变成真正的金钱赌注。如果有任何读者选择以我的预测为指导进行实际的金钱投注，请先拨打 1-800-DoNotGamble。
从上到下：
俄克拉荷马雷霆队：拉斯维加斯预测——56.5 胜
拉斯维加斯预测雷霆队的胜场数将超过联盟中除卫冕冠军以外的任何一支球队。拉斯维加斯预测凯尔特人队（以及德里克·怀特）将取得 58.5 胜。我理解对雷霆队的乐观情绪，因为除了约什·吉迪之外，雷霆队基本上保留了去年那支优秀年轻球队的所有成员，并且他们还增加了顶级防守球员亚历克斯·卡鲁索和多才多艺的大个子以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因。57 胜 25 负听起来是可行的，所以我认为会 高于 预测，但只是略微高于。
明尼苏达森林狼队：拉斯维加斯预测——52.5 胜
森林狼队与尼克斯队完成了一笔重磅交易，得到了朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)和多特·迪温琴佐(Donte DiVincenzo)，送出了卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)。这是一笔有趣的关于负面情绪球员（兰德尔和唐斯）的交易，可能与其说是出于篮球原因，不如说是因为森林狼队不愿意在未来几个赛季支付给唐斯巨额薪水，因为届时他们还要支付鲁迪·戈贝尔和年轻的超级巨星安东尼·爱德华兹的薪水。虽然他们会怀念唐斯拉开场上空间的能力（以及前马刺球员凯尔·“慢动作”·安德森的智慧），但我仍然认为这笔交易对一支上赛季赢下 56 场比赛的球队来说是一个轻微的升级。 高于 预测。
丹佛掘金队：拉斯维加斯预测——51.5 胜
自从两个赛季前夺冠以来，掘金队已经因为薪资原因放弃了宝贵的角色球员布鲁斯·布朗、杰夫·格林和肯塔维奥斯·卡德维尔-波普。掘金队希望用年轻球员来代替这些球员的贡献，但他们还没有做好准备。在约基奇决定回到塞尔维亚骑马之前，他们是在浪费他的黄金时期吗？ 低于 预测。
达拉斯独行侠队：拉斯维加斯预测——49.5 胜
独行侠队上赛季赢下了 50 场比赛并打入了 NBA 总决赛，但他们在休赛期放弃了很多阵容深度，只签下了克莱·汤普森。拥有潜在的 MVP 卢卡·东契奇和“地平说”支持者凯里·欧文，以及不再是一名优秀防守球员的克莱，这支球队将得分很多，失分也很多。在竞争激烈的西部联盟，我认为疲软的防守将使独行侠队的战绩略低于上赛季。 低于 预测。
菲尼克斯太阳队：拉斯维加斯预测——47.5 胜
我们从四支预计将赢得 46.5 或 47.5 场比赛的球队开始分析。换句话说，拉斯维加斯认为西部第八名的球队最终战绩将是 47 胜 35 负或 46 胜 36 负。排名第五或第六可以避开附加赛，而第七和第八则不行。至于太阳队，签下一名真正的控球后卫泰尤斯·琼斯将非常有帮助。尽管遭遇了很多伤病，但太阳队上赛季还是赢下了 49 场比赛。这是一个赌凯文·杜兰特能保持相对健康的赌注。 高于 预测。
孟菲斯灰熊队：拉斯维加斯预测——47.5 胜
灰熊队上赛季只赢了 27 场比赛，很大程度上是因为德斯蒙德·贝恩只打了 40 场比赛，贾·莫兰特只打了 9 场比赛，布兰登·克拉克打了 6 场比赛。在他们的场均得分前十名球员中，只有小贾伦·杰克逊的出场次数超过了 50 场。一个健康的赛季能让孟菲斯队比上个赛季多赢 20 场比赛吗？很有可能。 高于 预测。
萨克拉门托国王队：拉斯维加斯预测——46.5 胜
国王队签下了前马刺、前公牛球员德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)，将哈里森·巴恩斯送至马刺。这对国王队来说是一个利好，尤其是在进攻端。当然，国王队已经拥有非常强大的进攻火力，这也是他们去年能赢得 46 场比赛的原因。德罗赞值得再赢一场比赛吗？ 高于 预测。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队：拉斯维加斯预测——46.5 胜
鹈鹕队正在进行一项奇怪的实验，那就是在没有真正中锋的情况下比赛。他们可能会让身高 6 英尺 6 英寸的锡安·威廉姆森担任控球中锋，与休赛期引进的前马刺、前老鹰球员德章泰·默里并肩作战。我认为这支由不匹配的拼图组成的球队可能会比上赛季 49 胜的成绩有所倒退。 低于 预测。
金州勇士队：拉斯维加斯预测——44.5 胜
拉斯维加斯预测曾经强大的勇士队将参加附加赛。勇士队送走了上赛季大部分时间似乎都心不在焉的克莱·汤普森，并引进了一些优秀的球员，包括“慢动作”和超级射手巴迪·希尔德。我也很喜欢他们的一些年轻球员，而且谁知道呢？也许安德鲁·威金斯会再次变得出色。勇士队仍然拥有斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)，这意味着他们的战绩会 高于 预测。
洛杉矶湖人队：拉斯维加斯预测——43.5 胜
奥运会提醒所有人，勒布朗·詹姆斯和安东尼·戴维斯是来自美国的 NBA 前五名球员中的两位。当然，世界上许多最优秀的球员并不来自美国。这或许可以解释为什么即使勒布朗和戴维斯都保持相对健康，湖人队上赛季也只赢下了 47 场比赛，并且没有进入西部前六。你会赌湖人队的两名最佳球员再次迎来一个健康的赛季吗？ 低于 预测。
休斯敦火箭队：拉斯维加斯预测——43.5 胜
火箭队上赛季以 41 胜 41 负的战绩打出五成胜率，这让很多人感到意外。这大大超出了 31.5 胜的拉斯维加斯预测。失去申京前往欧洲球队打球会毁掉火箭队吗？天意如此， 低于 预测。
洛杉矶快船队：拉斯维加斯预测——39.5 胜
快船队失去了保罗·乔治，并且没有得到任何回报。六年前，当科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)想离开圣安东尼奥时，马刺队的球迷们非常沮丧，但马刺队现在可能很庆幸伦纳德的离开。他为快船队效力期间，410 场常规赛只打了 229 场，错过了无数场季后赛，而且他糟糕的膝盖让他无法在本赛季开始时上场。另外，伦纳德已经 35 岁了，并且正处于一份为期三年、价值 1.52 亿美元的合同的第一年。令人唏嘘。 低于 预测。
圣安东尼奥马刺队：拉斯维加斯预测——36.5 胜
如果你读过《Pounding the Rock》网站，你就了解马刺队。除了说 高于 预测，其他任何说法都是亵渎神灵。他们能赢得足够的比赛，以“没人想碰上的球队”的身份进入附加赛吗？那将会很酷。
犹他爵士队：拉斯维加斯预测——29.5 胜
爵士队今年夏天没有交易劳里·马尔卡宁(Lauri Markkanen)，这让很多人感到意外。如果他身披银黑战袍，看起来会很棒。嘿，我刚听说帕蒂·米尔斯(Patty Mills)在爵士队！但他们错误地把他身高列为 6 英尺 2 英寸。我认为爵士队和米尔斯的战绩都会 低于 预测。
波特兰开拓者队：拉斯维加斯预测——22.5 胜
我在上个赛季的胜负预测专栏开头就谈到了开拓者队的满满天赋，尽管他们仍然被预测将在西部垫底。他们最终确实垫底了，只赢了 21 场比赛，低于预测的 28.5 场。我预计开拓者队将进入摆烂模式，希望赢得库珀·弗莱格(Cooper Flagg)的选秀权。 低于 预测。
我预测了七个高于和八个低于，这似乎是一个合适的比例。当然，我去年也预测了相同的比例，所以这可能没什么意义。加油，马刺！
点击查看原文：Predicting the Over/Under for each Western Conference team 2.0
Predicting the Over/Under for each Western Conference team 2.0
This did not go well last season, so let’s try it again!
Each year at this time, I make some predictions about the upcoming NBA season, focusing on the Western Conference. Five years ago, for reasons I cannot remember, I decided to make those predictions Twitter-style, limiting myself to a total of 140 characters (including spaces between words) per team. This led to summaries like this one for the 2019-2020 Spurs:
“Our Spurs! Many good/very good players, none in top 20. Best coach to maximize this type of talent? Pop, hands down. Save the streak! 8th (139 characters)”
Ah, those were the days — the “streak” was consecutive playoff trips for the Spurs. That steak ended the next spring when the pandemic shut down that season on the 27-36 Spurs, leading to this article:
“This year’s Spurs were just like the Girl with the Curl — When they were good, they were very good indeed, but when they were bad they were horrid.”
Before last season, I predicted whether each Western Conference team would wind up over or under the Las Vegas pre-season wins prediction. How did I do? In a word — terribly. Five correct predictions, ten incorrect. The only smart thing I did was deciding not to turn my predictions into actual money bets. As I said then:
“So this will be whether I would take the over or under if I had enough confidence (or stupidity) to actually put some money down. (I don’t.)”
In an attempt to atone for last season’s debacle, I will return to the well. Once again, I will 1. predict whether each team will exceed their Vegas win prediction, and 2. not put my money where my mouth is. If any reader chooses to use my predictions as a guide to bet actual money, please first call 1-800-DoNotGamble.
From top to bottom:
OKC Thunder: Vegas prediction — 56.5 wins
Vegas has OKC winning more games than anyone in the league except the defending champs. Vegas has the Celtics (and Derrick White) winning 58.5. I understand the optimism about OKC, as the Thunder has basically everyone back from last year’s excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein. 57-25 sounds doable, so I will go with OVER, but just barely.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Vegas prediction — 52.5 wins
The T’Wolves pulled off a huge trade with the Knicks, getting Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo and giving up Karl-Anthony Towns. Interesting trade of bad body language guys (Randle and KAT), probably driven less by basketball reasons and more by T’Wolves’ reluctance to pay KAT huge money in upcoming seasons when they will also be paying Rudy Gobert and young superstar Anthony Edwards. While they will miss KAT’s ability to stretch the floor (and the smarts of ex-Spur Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson), I still think the trade will be a slight upgrade for a team that won 56 games last season. OVER.
Denver Nuggets: Vegas prediction — 51.5 wins
Since winning it all two seasons ago, the Nuggets have given up valuable role players Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, all for money reasons. The Nuggets hope to replace these players’ production with youngsters, but they haven’t stepped up yet. Are they wasting Jokic’s prime before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses? UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks: Vegas prediction — 49.5 wins
The Mavs won 50 games last season and went to the NBA Finals, but they gave up a bunch of depth in the off-season, picking up only Klay Thompson. With possible MVP Luka Doncic and flat-earther Kyrie Irving, and Klay no longer a good defender, this is a team that will score a lot and give up a lot. In the tough Western Conference, I think the weak defense will have the Mavs slightly down from last year. UNDER.
Phoenix Suns: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
We begin a four-team scrum of clubs predicted to win either 46.5 or 47.5 games. Put another way, Vegas thinks the 8th place team in the West will either finish 47-35 or 46-36. Finishing 5th or 6th avoids the Play-In Tournament, 7th and 8th does not. As for the Suns, picking up a true point guard in Tyus Jones will be very helpful. The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
The Grizzlies won only 27 games last season, largely because Desmond Bane played only 40 games, Ja Morant played only 9 and Brandon Clarke played 6. Of their top ten PPG scorers, only Jaron Jackson, Jr. played more than 50 games. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year’s lost season? Probably. OVER.
Sacramento Kings: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
The Kings picked up ex-Spur, ex-Bull DeMar DeRozan, giving up Harrison Barnes to the Spurs. That is a net positive for the Kings, especially on offense. Of course, the Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER
New Orleans Pelicans: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
The Pelicans are doing an odd experiment of playing without a real center. They may play Zion Williamson as a 6’6” point center alongside ex-Spur, ex-Hawk Dejounte Murray, their big off-season pick-up. I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year’s 49 wins. UNDER.
Golden State Warriors: Vegas prediction — 44.5 wins
Vegas has the once-mighty Warriors in the Play-In Tournament. The Warriors gave up Klay Thompson, who seemed to be a distraction much of last year, and picked up some quality pieces, including Slo-Mo and uber-shooter Buddy Hield. I also like some of their younger players, and who knows? Maybe Andrew Wiggins will be good again. The Warriors still have Steph Curry, which means OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
The Olympics reminded everyone that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the two of the best five players in the NBA who hail from the USA. Of course, many of the world’s best players do not come from the USA. Which may explain why even with relatively healthy seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn’t finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers’ best two players? UNDER.
Houston Rockets: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
The Rockets surprised a lot of people last year by going .500 at 41-41. This blew away the 31.5 win Vegas prediction. Will losing Boban to a European team doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers: Vegas prediction — 39.5 wins
The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably are glad that Kawhi departed. He has played in only 229 of 410 regular season games for the Clippers, has missed numerous playoff games, and his bad knee won’t let him start the season. In related news, Kawhi is 35 years old and in the first year of a three-year $152 million contract. Sad. UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs: Vegas prediction — 36.5 wins
If you read Pounding the Rock, you know about the Spurs. It would also be blasphemy to say anything but OVER. Can they win enough games to get into the Play-In Tournament as the “Team No One Wants to Play”? That would be cool.
Utah Jazz: Vegas prediction — 29.5 wins
The Jazz surprised a lot of people by not trading Lauri Markkanen this summer. He would have looked good in Silver and Black. Hey, I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6’2”. I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers: Vegas prediction — 22.5 wins
I started last season’s over-under column by talking about all the talent on the Blazers, even they were still picked to finish last in the West. Which they did, winning only 21 games, less than their predicted 28.5 wins. I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery. UNDER.
I have seven overs, and eight unders, which seems to be about the right ratio. Of course, I had the same ratio last year, so perhaps it doesn’t mean much. Go Spurs.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock