By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-04-16 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
虽然出现了一些意想不到的转折，但至少我比去年做得好！
谢天谢地，NBA常规赛终于结束了。有人指出，“焦虑”可能是形容这个赛季的合适词汇。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队、克利夫兰骑士队和底特律活塞队都有很棒的故事，还有金州勇士队在季后赛吉米·巴特勒加盟后赛季末的复苏。然而，本赛季的大部分时间都围绕着关键球员的伤病、球星交易和教练动荡。圣安东尼奥马刺队也参与了这三个方面，包括 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)的赛季报销伤病、 达龙·福克斯 (D’Aaron Fox)的交易（他随后也自愿因手指手术进入了第一类），以及 格雷格·波波维奇 (Gregg Popovich)在11月份的中风。
我还有另一个焦虑的来源：我对每个西部球队的季前赛胜场预测。这是我每年都会做的事情，即使我很明显不擅长。实际上，我的编辑在我的2024-25赛季预测中添加了以下副标题：
“上赛季做得不好，所以让我们再试一次！”
人们常说，承认错误需要一个坚强的人。我每年都在变得更强。让我们回顾一下我2024-2025赛季的预测，看看我做得怎么样。与我2024年10月21日的预测一样，我将从胜场预测最高的球队开始，然后依次往下。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
预测胜场数：56.5
实际胜场数：68
我的预测：大
嘿，让我们从一场胜利开始！我的预测包含以下积极的措辞：“我理解对雷霆队的乐观情绪，因为雷霆队基本上保留了去年那支优秀年轻球队的所有成员，除了 约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddy)，并且他们增加了顶级防守者 亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)和多才多艺的大个子 以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)。” 让我们忽略我还在我的“大”预测中使用了“勉强”这个词的事实。雷霆队超过了拉斯维加斯的预测11.5场比赛。拿下胜利，李！
明尼苏达森林狼队
预测胜场数：52.5
实际胜场数：49
我的预测：大
回顾一下，我很惊讶地看到拉斯维加斯预测森林狼队将获得西部第二好的战绩。更令人惊讶的是，我选择了“大”，错误地暗示交易掉 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)将是一次升级。在一个完全相关的新闻中，唐斯很可能会入选NBA最佳阵容第二队（尽管如果 维克托 打了至少65场比赛，他可能会入选第三队）。
丹佛掘金队
预测胜场数：51.5
实际胜场数：50
我的预测：小
又一场胜利，但只是勉强。我评论了掘金队失去有价值的角色球员，并询问他们是否在浪费 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)的巅峰岁月，直到他决定搬回塞尔维亚去骑他的马。说实话，掘金队的“小”最好解释为 贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)和 阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)的长期伤病，因为 约基奇 打出了一个史诗般的赛季。
达拉斯独行侠队
预测胜场数：49.5
实际胜场数：39
我的预测：小
又一场胜利，但在我讨论独行侠队即将到来的赛季时，我并没有预测到他们会决定将25岁的 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)交易到湖人队，以换取31岁的 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)和 道格·克里斯蒂 (Doug Christie)的儿子。如果我预测到这笔交易（其他人也没有），我肯定会预测 戴维斯 会在交易后不久受伤，而我将是对的。我也会正确地预测到，交易 卢卡 会使独行侠队的球迷成为联盟中最伤心的球迷。我希望他们至少能享受他们在附加赛中的一轮游。
菲尼克斯太阳队
预测胜场数：47.5
实际胜场数：36
我的预测：大
我在这一点上大错特错。我说：“至于太阳队，得到 泰厄斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones)这样一位真正的控球后卫将非常有帮助。太阳队上个赛季尽管遭遇了很多伤病，但还是赢了49场比赛。这是一个赌 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)将保持相对健康的赌注。“大。” 事实上， 杜兰特 一直保持相对健康直到赛季末，场均得到26.6分、6.0个篮板和4.2次助攻。 德文·布克 (Devin Booker)也有不错的数据（25.6/4.1/7.1）。但是球队很烂，最终在赛季结束后第二天解雇了我们的老朋友 迈克·布登霍尔泽 (Mike Budenholzer)。我可以从这样一个事实中得到一些安慰，那就是虽然我对这支球队的判断是错误的，但几乎所有人也是如此。又一个悲伤的球迷群体。
孟菲斯灰熊队
预测胜场数：47.5
实际胜场数：48
我的预测：大
在我的季前赛专栏中，我说：“在他们的前十名场均得分手中，只有 贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaron Jackson, Jr.)在[2023-24赛季]打了超过50场比赛。一个健康的赛季能否让孟菲斯队比去年那个失落的赛季多赢20场比赛？可能吧。” 孟菲斯队在2024-25赛季经历了一个奇怪的赛季，在赛季末解雇了他们的教练（前马刺队助理教练 泰勒·詹金斯 (Taylor Jenkins)），并且从未看起来像几年前那支快乐、超越预期的球队。 贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant)向人群投掷假手榴弹，邀请联盟禁赛他。他下次应该尝试假装拉弓射箭。但不知何故，灰熊队最终达到了“大”，给了我一次险胜。我需要所有我能得到的胜利，因为事情很快就要开始走下坡路了。
萨克拉门托国王队
预测胜场数：46.5
实际胜场数：40
我的预测：大
我说：“当然，国王队已经拥有非常出色的进攻，这就是为什么他们去年赢了46场比赛。 德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)是否值得再赢一场比赛？“大。” 与灰熊队一样，国王队从一个令人感觉良好的故事变成了一个远低于此的故事。相反，今年的版本变成了和以前一样的国王队，努力进入附加赛，并增加了一个新的转折：在他们最好的球员刚进入巅峰期时交易掉他。当然，没有马刺队的球迷抱怨这个转折，因为马刺队受益于获得了 达龙·福克斯 ——即使这意味着我在这里又输了一次。我接受这笔交易。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
预测胜场数：46.5
实际胜场数：21
我的预测：小
又一支悲伤的球队，又一支不再是令人感觉良好的故事的球队，又一个悲伤的球迷群体。唯一的好处？鹈鹕队太糟糕了，以至于我的愚人节专栏可以令人信服地报道一笔 文班亚马 换取整个鹈鹕队阵容的交易。在赛季开始前，我说：“我认为这个不匹配的玩具岛可能会比去年的49场胜利倒退一步。“小。” “不匹配的玩具”是准确的。“倒退一步”是轻描淡写。鹈鹕队“倒退”着从悬崖上掉进了迎面而来的火车的轨道。天哪，鹈鹕队太糟糕了。
金州勇士队
预测胜场数：44.5
实际胜场数：48
我的预测：大
我的“大”预测是基于一件事：“勇士队仍然拥有 斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)，这意味着“大”。” 如果我知道勇士队的赛季是如何发展的，我会说，“勇士队仍然拥有 库里 ，并且会得到吉米·巴特勒”。我还会说，勇士队可能就是任何球队都不想碰到的球队。 库里 和勇士队在季后赛中赢得的比赛越多，电视收视率就越高。
洛杉矶湖人队
预测胜场数：43.5
实际胜场数：50
我的预测：小
我对洛杉矶的两支球队都判断失误了，这让我在洛杉矶的所有朋友都有了嘲笑的话题。对于湖人队，我说，“即使 勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)和 戴维斯 的赛季相对健康，湖人队去年也只赢了47场比赛，并且没有进入西部前六名。你会赌湖人队最好的两名球员再次迎来一个健康的赛季吗？“小。” 看来我问错了问题。正确的问题应该问，如果他们交易得到 东契奇 ， 勒布朗 打出一个复古赛季， 奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)成为一名球星，并且一个以前从未执教过比赛的人( JJ·雷迪克 (J.J. Reddick))实际上变得相当出色，湖人队会怎么样？这个问题我可能会正确回答。而不是我对西部第三号种子的“小”的预测。
洛杉矶快船队
预测胜场数：39.5
实际胜场数：50
我的预测：小
我又输了。我说，“快船队失去了 保罗·乔治 (Paul George)，并且一无所获。六年前，当 科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)想离开圣安东尼奥时，马刺队的球迷感到不安，但马刺队可能很高兴 伦纳德 离开了……在一个相关的新闻中， 伦纳德 33岁，并且正处于一份为期三年价值1.52亿美元合同的第一年。可悲。“小。” 正如每个人对太阳队过于乐观一样，每个人（包括我）对快船队过于悲观，预测他们将以低于0.500的胜率结束。即使 伦纳德 只打了37场比赛，快船队整个赛季都表现出色，并且与湖人队一样赢得了50场比赛。并且随着 伦纳德 看起来状态良好，快船队理所当然地被视为真正的竞争者。你知道随之而来的“如果”句子。它包括“ 伦纳德 ”，“保持”和“健康”这些词。
休斯顿火箭队
预测胜场数：43.5
实际胜场数：52
我的预测：小
我开玩笑而不是进行任何实际分析，我说：“失去 博班·马扬诺维奇 (Boban Marjanovic)对欧洲球队的损失是否会注定火箭队？因果报应说是“小”。” 事实证明，我的玩笑预测并不比拉斯维加斯更好，后者也严重错过了这支球队。其他人也是如此。我认为没有人预测火箭队会赢得52场比赛并最终获得西部联盟第二名。事实上，拉斯维加斯预测火箭队将排名第11位并错过附加赛。糟糕。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
预测胜场数：36.5
实际胜场数：34
我的预测：大
作为 Pounding the Rock 的长期撰稿人，我在合同上有义务预测马刺队会“大”。（反正我也会这样做。）如果没有11月份 波波维奇 的缺席和2月份 文班亚马 的缺席，我就会是对的。顺便说一下，我对2025-26赛季的预测？“大”！我不在乎拉斯维加斯预测什么，我都要选“大”。
犹他爵士队
预测胜场数：29.5
实际胜场数：17
我的预测：小
我说：“嘿，我刚得知 帕蒂·米尔斯 (Patty Mills)在爵士队！但他们错误地将他列为6’2“。我认为爵士队和 米尔斯 都会是“小”。” 我在这方面是对的，主要是因为（1）爵士队没有好的球员，并且（2）基于第1点，爵士队很早就决定 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)穿爵士队的球衣会很好看。此外， 米尔斯 在独行侠队结束了这个赛季。他值得在一个更好的地方。
波特兰开拓者队
预测胜场数：22.5
实际胜场数：36
我的预测：小
我和其他人一样，对开拓者的判断严重失误。我说：“我预计开拓者队会摆烂，希望赢得 库珀·弗拉格 彩票。” 相反，开拓者队成为了一个低调的成功故事，甚至还给他们的教练 昌西·比卢普斯 (Chauncey Billups)提供了一份长期续约合同。他可以问问 布登霍尔泽 教练这对他的工作保障意味着什么……
总结
嘿，我比上个赛季糟糕的 5胜10负的战绩要好。今年：7胜8负，这本来可以进入东部联盟的附加赛。我知道这是一个很低的门槛，但这就是我所拥有的。明年，要么我继续保持上升趋势（如雷霆队和火箭队），要么我将这个令人感觉良好的故事变成一个悲伤的故事（如国王队和鹈鹕队）。我预测“小”。
点击查看原文：Reviewing my over/under predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season
Reviewing my over/under predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season
There were some unexpected twists and turns, but at least I did better than last year!
Thankfully, the NBA regular season has ended. Others have pointed out that “angst” would be a good word to describe the season. There were some great storylines in OKC, Cleveland and Detroit, along with Golden State’s late season rejuvenation after picking up Jimmy Playoff Butler. However, much of the season revolved around injuries to key players, trades of star players and coaching turmoil. The Spurs were involved in each of those three categories with the season-ending injury to Victor Wembanyama, the trade for D’Aaron Fox (who then also voluntarily fell into category one with his finger surgery), and Gregg Popovich’s stroke in November.
I had another source of angst: my preseason over/under predictions for each Western Conference team. This is something I do every year, even though it is something I am clearly not very good at. Indeed, my editor added the following sub-headline to my 2024-25 predictions:
“This did not go well last season, so let’s try it again!”
They say it takes a strong man to admit his mistakes. I am getting stronger each year. Let’s look back to my 2024-2025 season prediction and see how I did. As with my October 21, 2024 predictions, I will start with the team with the highest win prediction and go down from there.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Predicted Win Total: 56.5
Actual Win Total: 68.
My Prediction: OVER.
Hey, let’s start with a win! My prediction included this positive language: “I understand the optimism about OKC, as the Thunder has basically everyone back from last year’s excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein.” Let’s ignore the fact that I also used the words “just barely” on my OVER prediction. OKC exceeded the Vegas prediction by 11.5 games Take the win, Lee!
Minnesota Timberwolves
Predicted Win Total: 52.5
Actual Win Total: 49
My Prediction: OVER.
Looking back, I am surprised to see that Vegas predicted the T’Wolves to have the second best record in the West. Even more surprising is that I took the OVER, incorrectly suggesting that trading away Karl-Anthony Towns would be an upgrade. In totally related news, KAT will likely be Second Team All-NBA (though he would probably be Third Team if Victor had played the 65-game minimum).
Denver Nuggets
Predicted Win Total: 51.5
Actual Win Total: 50
My Prediction: UNDER.
Another win, but just barely. I commented about the Nuggets’ loss of valuable role players and asked if they were wasting Jokic’s prime years before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses. Truth be told, the Nuggets’ UNDER can be best explained by extended injuries to Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, as Jokic had a season for the ages.
Dallas Mavericks
Predicted Win Total: 49.5
Actual Win Total: 39
My Prediction: UNDER.
Another win, but nowhere in my discussion of the Mavs’ upcoming season did I predict that they would decide to trade 25-year-old Luka Doncic to the Lakes for 31-year-old Anthony Davis and Doug Christie’s son. If I had predicted that trade (no one else did either), I would have certainly predicted that AD would get injured shortly after the trade, and I would have been right. I would have also been correct in predicting that trading Luka would make Mavs’ fans the saddest in the league. I hope they at least enjoy their one-and-done in the Play-In Tourney.
Phoenix Suns
Predicted Win Total: 47.5
Actual Win Total: 36
My Prediction: OVER.
I was so wrong on this one. I said: “As for the Suns, picking up a true point guard in Tyus Jones will be very helpful. The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER.” KD in fact stayed relatively healthy until the end of the season and averaged 26.6 points, 6.0 boards and 4.2 assists. Devin Booker also has good numbers (25.6/4.1/7.1). But the team sucked, ultimately firing our old friend Mike Budenholzer the day after the season mercifully ended. I take some solace from the fact that while I was wrong about this team, almost everyone else was too. Yet another sad fan base.
Memphis Grizzlies
Predicted Win Total: 47.5
Actual Win Total: 48
My Prediction: OVER.
In my preseason column, I said: “Of their top ten PPG scorers, only Jaron Jackson, Jr. played more than 50 games [in 2023-24]. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year’s lost season? Probably.” Memphis had a weird season in 2024-25, firing their coach (ex-Spurs assistant Taylor Jenkins) near the end of the season and never looking like the happy, over-achieving squad that got a 2-seed just a few years back. Ja Morant is throwing fake grenades into the crowd, inviting the league to suspend him. He should try a fake bow and arrow next. But somehow, the Grizzlies wound up on the OVER, giving me a narrow win. I need all the wins I can get, as things start going south very soon.
Sacramento Kings
Predicted Win Total: 46.5
Actual Win Total: 40
My Prediction: OVER.
I said: “Of course, the Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER.” As with the Grizzlies, the Kings went from being a feel-good story to something much less than that. Instead, this year’s version became the same old Kings, struggling to make the Play-In Tourney, and adding a new twist: trading away their best player while he just entering his prime. Of course, no one in Spurs Nation is complaining about that twist as the Spurs benefitted by acquiring De’Aaron Fox – even though it meant another loss for me here. I will take that trade.
New Orleans Pelicans
Predicted Win Total: 46.5
Actual Win Total: 21
My Prediction: UNDER
Another sad team, another team no longer a feel-good story, and another sad fan base. The only good thing? The Pelicans were so bad that my April Fool’s Day column could credibly report a trade of Wembanyama for the entire Pelicans roster. Before the season, I said: “I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year’s 49 wins. UNDER.”. “Mis-matched toys” was accurate. A “step back” was an understatement. The Pelicans “stepped back” off a cliff into the path of an oncoming train. Yikes, the Pelicans were bad.
Golden State Warriors
Predicted Win Total: 44.5
Actual Win Total: 48
My Prediction: OVER.
My OVER prediction was based on one thing: “The Warriors still have Steph Curry, which means OVER.” If I would have known how the W’s season turned out, I would have said, “The Warriors still have Steph Curry, and will pick up Jimmy Butler”. I would have also said that the Warriors may just be the team no one wants to play. The more games Curry and the Ws win in the playoffs, the better the TV ratings will be.
Los Angeles Lakers
Predicted Win Total 43.5
Actual Win Total: 50
My Prediction: UNDER.
I missed badly on both Los Angeles teams, which gives all my friends here in Los Angeles something to chirp about. For the Lakers I said, “even with relatively healthy seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn’t finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers’ best two players? UNDER.” It appears I asked the wrong question. The right question would have asked how the Lakers would do if they traded for Doncic, LeBron had a throw-back season, Austin Reaves became a star, and a guy who had never coached a game before (J.J. Reddick) actually became pretty good at it. That question I might have answered correctly. As opposed to my UNDER prediction for the No. 3 seed in the West.
Los Angeles Clippers
Predicted Win Total: 39.5
Actual Win Total: 50
My Prediction: UNDER
Another loss for me. I said, “The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably are glad that Kawhi departed… In related news, Kawhi is 33 years old and in the first year of a three-year $152 million contract. Sad. UNDER.” Just as everyone was overly optimistic about the Suns, everyone (including me) was overly pessimistic about the Clippers, predicting them to finish under .500. Even though Kawhi only played 37 games, the Clippers played well throughout the season, and matched the Lakers with 50 wins. And with Kawhi looking good, the Clippers are rightfully seen as legitimate contenders. You know the “if” sentence that follows. It includes the words “Kawhi”, “stays” and “healthy”.
Houston Rockets
Predicted Win Total: 43.5
Actual Win Total: 52
My Prediction: UNDER
Joking around instead of any actual analysis, I said: “Will losing Boban to a European team doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER.” It turns out that my joking around prediction was no better than Las Vegas, which also badly missed on this team. As did everyone else. I don’t think anyone had the Rockets winning 52 games and finishing No. 2 in the loaded Western Conference. Indeed, Vegas had the Rockets coming in 11th and missing the Play-In Tourney. Oops.
San Antonio Spurs
Predicted Win Total: 36.5
Actual Win Total: 34
My Prediction: OVER.
As a long-time Pounding the Rock writer, I am contractually obligated to predict OVER for the Spurs. (I would have done it anyway.) Absent the loss of Pop in November and Victor Wembanyama in February, I would have been right. By the way, my prediction for the 2025-26 season? OVER! I don’t care what Vegas predicts, I am going OVER.
Utah Jazz
Predicted Win Total: 29.5
Actual Win Total: 17
My Prediction: UNDER.
I said, “Hey, I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6’2”. I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.” I was right on this, largely because (1) the Jazz don’t have good players and (2) based on number 1, the Jazz decided early on that Cooper Flagg would look very good in a Jazz jersey. Also, Patty Mills ended the season on the Mavs. He deserves to be in a better place.
Portland Trail Blazers
Predicted Win Total: 22.5
Actual Win Total: 36
My Prediction: UNDER
Along with everyone else, I missed badly on the Blazers. I said “I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery.” Instead, the Blazers became an under-the-radar success story, even rewarding their coach Chauncey Billups with a long extension. And he can ask Coach Bud what that means for his job security…
Summary
Hey, I did better than last season’s abysmal 5–10 record. This year: 7–8, which would have made the Play-Tourney in the Eastern Conference. A low bar, I know, but that’s all I got. Next year, either I continue an upward trend (like the Thunder and Rockets) or I turn this feel-good story into a sad one (like the Kings and Pelicans). I predict the UNDER.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock