[PtR] 数据评分:马刺辉煌的赛季在惨痛的教训中落幕

By Boxscorehistory | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-14 21:40:03

我必须承认,从这轮系列赛的走势来看,在进入第四节时,我几乎可以肯定圣安东尼奥会输掉这场比赛。简单来说,马刺一次又一次地证明了他们有能力在比赛后期对阵尼克斯时保持领先,但面对错失的良机、失误以及关键时刻的急躁,这种优势不可避免地会消逝殆尽。简而言之,与纽约的这些较量似乎最终归结于经验带来的优势,因为尼克斯在最关键的时刻总是展现出压制圣安东尼奥的能力。

尽管结局令人失望,但如果忽视这个赛季有多么不可思议,那就是我们的失职了。早在去年十月,人们还预测马刺只是一支季后赛边缘球队,能闯过附加赛并在首轮拼尽全力出局就已经谢天谢地了。然而,他们却赢下了62场比赛,并一路过关斩将,击败了西部一系列强劲的对手。明年想要复制这一壮举并非易事,但这支球队的核心阵容仍处于年复一年大幅进步的黄金年龄段,因此我们完全有理由相信,明年的这支队伍会更加令人惊艳。在此期间,让我们来回顾本赛季最后一份技术统计评分:

注意: 随着我们进入季后赛,用于评分的参考区间已从2012-2013赛季以来的常规赛样本,调整为2012-2013赛季以来的季后赛样本。除非下文另有说明,否则该样本确实包含附加赛。截至2026年6月13日结束,该样本共包含1206场比赛。

决定比赛胜负的因素

  • 这又是许多关键对决基本平分秋色的一场比赛。例如,纽约在防守篮板上微弱领先马刺(+2),但圣安东尼奥在进攻篮板上拥有+1的优势。同样,尼克斯的失误比马刺多一次,但圣安东尼奥在利用失误得分上的优势仅为+3(这当然是优势,但不太可能左右比赛走向)。
  • 投篮出手数和投篮命中率同样旗鼓相当。马刺在整体投篮命中率上确实拥有关键优势(+2.74个百分点),这在通常情况下会为赢球提供相当大的优势。尽管圣安东尼奥比纽约多投进了两个运动战进球,但两队在三分线外的表现完全相同(均为37投12中),而更宏观的背景是,两队的运动战投篮手感都很糟糕。
  • 由于运动战得分如此匮乏,罚球线在比赛中起到了主导作用,不幸的是,这正是尼克斯明显压制圣安东尼奥的唯一领域。除了在罚球出手数上多出9次(部分原因可以解释为比赛最后阶段的犯规战术)之外,纽约还享有+8.27个百分点的罚球命中率优势。结果,他们在罚球线上比马刺多拿了8分,这最终被证明是决定性的。

罕见的技术统计数据

  • 在现代NBA中,一支球队能以纽约昨晚那样惨淡的投篮效率赢下季后赛,是极其罕见的。事实上,自2012-2013赛季以来,仅有另外一场季后赛中,赢球方的投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率分别低至35.63%、32.43%和71.43%或更差。那唯一的一次是2013年5月11日的比赛,当时印第安纳在东部半决赛中以81-72击败了尼克斯。
  • 当然,纽约之所以能用如此糟糕的命中率赢球,是因为马刺的效率甚至更低。事实上,自2012-2013赛季以来,只有三支球队在投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率分别低至38.37%、32.43%和63.16%或更差的情况下,输球分差在4分以内。在此期间,一个在各项投篮命中率指标上都如此糟糕的季后赛输球方,平均会输掉大约21分。
  • 尽管两队的运动战效率都惨不忍睹,但我必须不情愿地承认,杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 的表现堪称惊艳,他以极高的效率砍下45分,几乎包揽了球队一半的得分。事实上,自1996-1997赛季以来,只有18位其他球员在季后赛中打出过得分占全队总得分至少47.87%的表现。

什么是球队技术统计评分?

简而言之,这些技术统计评分是对胜负双方在基础数据上的差值进行评级,评分依据是赢球方的差值相对于特定参考区间内其他NBA赢球方的表现。可以把它看作是一张成绩单,用来了解某场比赛的赢家相对于其他赢家的表现如何。所使用的参考区间从2012-2013赛季开始一直到最近的比赛日,且仅包含相同赛季类别的比赛(即常规赛和季后赛不会相互比较)。

***数据来源:*用于制作这些技术统计评分的基础数据收集自Basketball Reference。在所有情况下,数据均在比赛结束后的次日早晨收集。尽管罕见,但数据收集后确实可能发生赛后数据修正,并可能对最终结果产生事后影响。

由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

点击查看原文:Box Grades: Spurs’ glorious season ends with a hard lesson

Box Grades: Spurs’ glorious season ends with a hard lesson

I must admit, the way this series has gone, I felt pretty certain heading into the fourth that San Antonio was going to lose this game. Simply put, the Spurs showed time and again that they could play well enough to hold a lead against the Knicks late in the game, but inevitably that edge would wither away in the face of missed opportunities, mistakes, and poor composure. In short, these contests against New York really do seem to have come down to the advantage earned through experience, as the Knicks consistently exhibited an ability to outperform San Antonio at the most critical times.

Despite it’s disappointing ending, we would be remiss to overlook how amazing this season has been. Back in October, the Spurs were expected to be a fringe playoff team that would be thrilled to get past the play-in and go down fighting in the first round. Instead, they won 62 games and marched through a series of tough Western Conference opponents. Replicating that feat next year won’t be easy, but the core of this team is still well within the age range in which substantial year-over-year improvements are the norm, so we have every reason to believe that next year’s squad will be even more impressive. In the meantime, let’s review our last box score of the season:

Note: Now that we’ve moved into the postseason, the reference period used for grading changes from the set of regular season games since 2012-2013 to the set of postseason games since 2012-2013. Unless otherwise noted below, this set DOES include play-in games. As of the end of June 13 2026, this group include 1,206 games.

Factors that decided the game

  • This was yet another game in which many key battles were essentially draws. For example, New York edged out the Spurs in defensive rebounds (+2), but San Antonio had a +1 edge on the offensive glass. Similarly, the Knicks had one more turnover than the Spurs, but San Antonio’s edge in points off of turnovers was just +3 (certainly an advantage, but unlikely to swing a game).
  • Shooting volume and efficiency from the field was similarly balanced. The Spurs did have a key edge in overall FG% (+2.74 percentage points), which would normally provide a sizeable advantage in terms of winning. Though San Antonio did make two more field goals than New York, both teams had exactly the same performance from distance (12-of-37), and the broader context is that neither team shot well from the field.
  • Because points from the field were so scarce, the free throw line played a dominant role in this game, and unfortunately this was the one area where the Knicks clearly outplayed San Antonio. In addition to having a FTA margin of +9 (part of which can be explained by fouling at the very end of the game), New York enjoyed a FT% differential of +8.27 percentage points. As a result, they outscored the Spurs by eight from the charity stripe, which ultimately proved decisive.

Rare Box Score Stats

  • It is EXCEPTIONALLY rare in the modern NBA for a team to win a postseason contest with the dismal shooting efficiency that New York achieved last night. In fact, there has been only ONE other postseason game since 2012-2013 in which the winning team logged FG%, 3P%, and FT% values at least as bad as 35.63%, 32.43%, and 71.43%, respectively. That other occasion was a May 11, 2013 game in which Indiana beat the Knicks 81-72 in the Eastern Conference Semis.
  • Of course, New York was able to win with these terrible percentages because the Spurs were even less efficient. In fact, since 2012-2013, just three teams have lost by no more than four points while recording FG%, 3P%, and FT% values at least as bad as 38.37%, 32.43%, and 63.16%, respectively. On average during this period, a postseason loser with a shooting percentage line that bad in all dimensions loses by about 21 points.
  • Although both teams were woefully inefficient from the field, I must grudgingly admit that Jalen Brunson was exceptional, as he scored 45 points on very good efficiency and accounted for nearly half of his team’s points. In fact, since 1996-1997, only 18 other players have put together a playoff performance in which they scored at least 47.87% of their team’s points.

What are Team Graded Box Scores?

Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).

***Data Source:*The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected fromBasketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.

By Boxscorehistory, via Pounding The Rock