By Boxscorehistory | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-11 14:28:55
这虽然不是2012-2013赛季总决赛的第六场（Game 6），但在马刺队史的伤心排行榜上，我认为这场比赛绝对可以稳居第二。毫无疑问，昨晚比赛的下半场是我所见过的任何一届马刺队打得最糟糕的24分钟。从所有迹象来看，之所以会这样，是因为球队当时是在为了“不输”而打球，而不是为了赢球。当然，我希望这支年轻的球队能通过一种不那么痛苦的方式明白这种心态是行不通的；但从另一方面来看，也许如此惨痛的失利会让这个教训更加刻骨铭心。圣安东尼奥现在唯一能做的就是一场接一场地去寻求救赎。在此之前，让我们先来回顾一下本场的数据统计：
注意： 既然我们已经进入了季后赛，用于评分的参考区间也从2012-2013赛季以来的常规赛样本，调整为2012-2013赛季以来的季后赛样本。除非下文另有说明，否则该样本确实包含附加赛。截至2026年6月10日结束，该样本共包含1,205场比赛。
决定比赛胜负的因素
- 这或许是“整体数据统计掩盖了比赛真实走向”最典型的例子，因为这完全是一场“冰火两重天”的比赛。我正在开发一个分节评分的数据版本，以便捕捉每场比赛内部的起伏变化，但遗憾的是，目前该更新尚未准备就绪。在此期间，我将在“罕见数据统计”部分指出上下半场之间的一些关键差异。
- 圣安东尼奥通过减少失误和拼抢更多前场篮板，创造了一些显着的进攻机会优势，尽管（正如你可能已经猜到的那样）这些机会都集中在上半场。
- 尽管尼克斯队少出手了8次，三分球也少投了11次，但他们全场的投篮效率（无论是整体命中率还是三分命中率）都更高。考虑到上半场的局势，这确实是一个了不起的成就。结果，两队在运动战中都投中了36个球，不过马刺队因为多进了两个三分球，在运动战得分上比纽约多出2分。
- 最后，尼克斯队唯一在胜负数据差上明显高于平均水平的领域是罚球线，他们比马刺多了8次罚球机会，并多罚中了3球。这一得分差（+3）刚好足以抹平马刺队在运动战中的优势。
罕见数据统计
- 正如我上面所提到的，整体数据统计确实无法反映这场比赛的真实情况，因为上下半场的表现简直天差地别。我将专门用这一部分来强调这些差异有多么戏剧化和罕见。以下所有数值均基于对1996-1997赛季以来，NBA常规赛和季后赛中总共76,040场“球队单场比赛”中出现不同结果的概率进行的分析。在这里，“球队单场比赛”指的是某支特定球队在某场比赛中的表现（即每场NBA比赛包含两场“球队单场比赛”，每支球队各算一场）：
- 相比于上半场的数据，马刺队在下半场少送出了12次助攻，并且多出现了7次失误。自1996-1997赛季以来，仅有60场“球队单场比赛”中，某支球队下半场对比上半场的助攻和失误差值达到了如此糟糕的程度。这大约每1,267场“球队单场比赛”中才会出现一次。
- 马刺队下半场的投篮命中率（FG%）比上半场骤降了39.06个百分点。这是自1996-1997赛季以来，所有球队从上半场到下半场投篮命中率下滑幅度的第26大纪录。换句话说，一支球队在上下半场之间投篮命中率出现如此大跌幅的概率，大约是2,925场“球队单场比赛”中才会发生一次。
- 圣安东尼奥下半场的得分比上半场整整少了46分，这追平了自1996-1997赛季以来的第四差得分差值纪录。从经验数据来看，在这30个赛季期间，一支球队出现如此糟糕或更差的上下半场得分差的概率，大约是10,863场“球队单场比赛”中才会发生一次。
- 自1996-1997赛季以来，仅出现过3次NBA球队下半场对比上半场的投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率差值分别至少低至**-39、-36和-21个百分点**的情况。换句话说，在投篮、三分和罚球这三个维度上，下半场命中率出现如此严重或更糟下滑的情况，大约每25,347场“球队单场比赛”中才会发生一次。
什么是球队数据评分？
简而言之，这些数据评分是对基础数据统计中的胜负差值进行评级，评分标准是基于获胜球队的差值相对于特定参考区间内其他NBA获胜球队的表现。你可以把它看作是一张成绩单，用来了解某支获胜球队相对于其他赢家表现如何。所使用的参考区间从2012-2013赛季开始一直到最近的比赛日，且仅包含相同赛事类别的比赛（即常规赛和季后赛不会相互比较）。
***数据来源：*用于制作这些数据评分的基础数据收集自Basketball Reference。在所有情况下，数据都是在比赛结束后的次日早晨收集的。尽管罕见，但数据收集后确实可能会出现赛后数据修正，并可能对最终结果产生事后影响。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Box Grades: Historic collapse pushes Spurs to the brink
Box Grades: Historic collapse pushes Spurs to the brink
This wasn’t Game 6 in the 2012-2013 finals, but on the scale of Spurs heartbreak I think it falls firmly into second place. Without question, the second half of last night’s game was the worst 24 minutes I’ve seen any Spurs team play, and from all appearances it happened because the team was playing not to lose rather than to win. Of course, I wish that this young team could have learned that this approach won’t cut it in a less painful way; on the other hand, perhaps the scale of the loss will make the lesson more enduring. All San Antonio can do now is seek redemption one game at a time; until then, let’s review the box score:
Note: Now that we’ve moved into the postseason, the reference period used for grading changes from the set of regular season games since 2012-2013 to the set of postseason games since 2012-2013. Unless otherwise noted below, this set DOES include play-in games. As of the end of June 10 2026, this group include 1,205 games.
Factors that decided the game
- This is a perhaps the clearest example possible of a game in which the overall box score obscures the full narrative of the game, as this was truly a tale of two completely different halves. I am working on a version of the graded box score that provides a quarter-by-quarter breakdown to capture variation in play within each game, but sadly that update isn’t ready at the moment. In the meantime, I’ll note some of the key half-to-half differences in the rare stats section.
- San Antonio had some notable advantages in offensive opportunity that they generated by having fewer turnovers and more offensive rebounds, though (as you may have guessed) these opportunities were concentrated in the first half.
- Although the Knicks took eight fewer shots and 11 fewer threes, their shooting efficiency (both overall and from distance) was better over the full game, a truly remarkable feat given how the first half went. As a result, both teams made exactly 36 shots, though San Antonio outscored New York by two from the field because they made two more threes.
- Finally, the only area in which the Knicks achieved notably above average winner-loser box score differentials was at the free throw line, where they had eight more attempts and three more makes. That point differential (+3) was just enough to overcome the Spurs’ edge from the field.
Rare Box Score Stats
- As I mentioned above, the overall box score really fails to tell the story of this game, because the first and second halves were so different. I’m going to dedicate this section to highlighting how dramatic and rare these differences were. All of the values below are examining the likelihood of different outcomes in the complete set of 76,040 team-games that have taken place across NBA regular and postseasons since 1996-1997. In this context, a “team-game” is the performance of a specific team in a given game (i.e., there are two team-games in each NBA game, one for each team):
- Relative to its first half totals, San Antonio had 12 fewer assists and seven more turnovers in the second half. Since 1996-1997, there have been just 60 other team-games in which a team had second-to-first half assist and turnover differentials at least that bad. That’s about once in every 1,267 team-games.
- The Spurs’ FG% was 39.06 percentage points worse in the second half (relative to the first). That’s the 26th largest decline in FG% observed from the first half to second half for a team since 1996-1997. Put another way, the odds that a team’s FG% would drop by at least as much between the first and second halves of a game is about 1-in-2,925 team-games.
- San Antonio’s second half scoring total was 46 points worse than its first half scoring total, which is tied for the fourth worst differential since 1996-1997. Empirically, the chance that a team would have a second-to-first half point differential this bad or worse during this 30-season period is about 1-in-10,863 team-games.
- There have been just three cases since 1996-1997 in which an NBA team’s second-to-first half FG%, 3P%, and FT% differentials were at least as bad as -39, – 36, and -21 percentage points (respectively). In other words, second-half falloffs in shooting efficiency as bad or worse in all three dimensions happen about once in every 25,347 team-games.
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
***Data Source:*The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected fromBasketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
By Boxscorehistory, via Pounding The Rock