By Boxscorehistory | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-21 12:52:20
老实说，在昨晚的比赛中，圣安东尼奥马刺输球这件事在我最担忧的名单中只能排在第四或第五位。到目前为止，最严重的问题显然是迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的受伤，因为他在这次季后赛之旅中起到了至关重要的作用，且显然是本系列赛至今表现第二好的马刺球员。第二令人头疼的问题则是马刺频频失误的顽疾，尤其是其中许多都是非受迫性失误，这毫无疑问让马刺付出了输球的代价。无论如何，唯一令人欣慰的是，昨晚的数据统计在好几个方面都显得不同寻常且十分有趣，让我们一起来深入分析：
注意： 既然我们已经进入了季后赛，用于评分的参考区间也从2012-2013赛季以来的常规赛数据集，调整为2012-2013赛季以来的季后赛数据集。除非下文另有说明，否则该数据集确实包括附加赛。截至2026年5月20日结束，该样本库共包含1193场比赛。
决定比赛胜负的因素
- 尽管比赛有时看起来错综复杂且混乱不堪，但决定比赛胜负的关键问题实际上非常清晰。
- 首先，马刺在球场各个区域的投篮效率都超过了雷霆（尽管优势微弱到中等）；事实上，在近期的NBA历史中，像雷霆这样在投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率均落后的情况下还能赢下季后赛，是极其罕见的（下文将详细展开）。
- 此外，雷霆在篮板球上并没有占到任何明显的便宜；他们确实多抢了一个前场篮板，但马刺在防守篮板上赢了5个（这主要是因为雷霆的出手次数更多）。
- 简而言之，马刺的失误是致命的。由于雷霆比马刺少了11次失误，他们获得了更多的得分机会，无论是在运动战中还是在罚球线上。最重要的是，雷霆在投篮出手数上拥有+10的优势，这使得他们尽管投篮命中率较低，却比马刺多投进了4个球。
- 除了运动战中的优势外，雷霆在罚球次数上也有+7的优势，部分原因在于马刺在第四节出现了一连串糟糕的犯规。这使得雷霆在罚球命中率较低的情况下，依然通过罚球将领先优势扩大了4分。
罕见的数据统计
- 我们先从评分数据表中的球队统计数据开始。本节提到的所有内容都反映了自2012-2013赛季以来进行的1193场季后赛（即“参考区间”）中，不同数据组合出现的频率：
- 这是历史上第30场获胜球队在失误数上比对手少11次或更多的比赛。
- 考虑到如此巨大的失误优势，雷霆最终没有取得一场大胜其实有点令人吃惊。事实上，他们成为了历史上仅有的第八支在失误数比对手少11次或以上、且净胜分不超过9分的获胜球队。
- 马刺则成为了历史上仅有的第八支在投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率分别至少达到48.81%、40%和88.24%的情况下依然输球的队伍。
- 这场比赛中出现了大量的进攻篮板，马刺抢下16个，雷霆抢下17个。事实上，这只是参考区间内第22场双方共抢下至少33个前场篮板的比赛（这大约仅占该时期1193场季后赛的1.76%，即大约每54场比赛中才会出现1场）。
- 考虑到两支球队都保持了相当不错的投篮命中率，并没有产生大量的打铁，这些进攻篮板的数据就显得尤为惊人。事实上，在参考区间内，只有另外一场比赛在两队投篮命中率均至少达到47.87%的同时，还抢下了33个以上的前场篮板。那场比赛同样是雷霆获胜，当时他们在2025年西部决赛第四场中击败了明尼苏达森林狼。
- 雷霆成为了参考区间内仅有的第11支在投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率差值上同样糟糕或更差（即分别落后至少0.94、3.89和9.07个百分点）却依然赢球的队伍。
- 现在让我们来看看马刺球员的个人数据，其中既有好消息，也有坏消息：
- 文班创下了自1996-1997季后赛以来，历史上仅第15次有球员在连续两场季后赛中抢下至少41个篮板的壮举（这不包括附加赛）。现有数据无法统计有多少次是在以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 随时都在公然拉拽他另一只手臂的情况下完成这一数据的，但我敢说这个数字肯定要低得多。
- 遗憾的是，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 成为了自1996-1997年以来，在所有真正的季后赛中首位在连续两场比赛中累计出现20次失误的球员。此前的最高纪录是17次，由勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 共同保持。
什么是球队评分数据表？
简单来说，这些数据表对基础技术统计中的胜负差值进行评分，评分依据是获胜球队的差值与特定参考区间内其他NBA获胜球队的对比。你可以把它看作是一张成绩单，用来了解某支获胜球队相对于其他获胜者的表现。所使用的参考区间自2012-2013赛季开始，一直延续到最近的比赛日，且仅对比同一赛事类别的比赛（即常规赛和季后赛不会进行横向对比）。
***数据来源：*用于制作这些评分数据表的基础数据收集自Basketball Reference。在所有情况下，数据均在比赛结束后的次日早晨收集。尽管罕见，但数据收集后确实可能会出现赛后数据修正，并可能对最终结果产生事后影响。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Box Grades: Thunder even series as Spurs’ backcourt grows thin, turnovers persist
Box Grades: Thunder even series as Spurs’ backcourt grows thin, turnovers persist
Honestly, the fact that San Antonio lost ranks fourth or fifth on my list of most troubling facts about last night’s game. By far the most serious issue is Dylan Harper’s injury, as he has been absolutely essential in this playoff run and clearly the second-best Spur in the series so far. The second most vexing problem has been San Antonio’s proclivity for turnovers, especially since many of them were unforced and they unequivocally cost the Spurs the game. In any case, one silver lining is that last night’s box score is unusual and interesting in several ways, so let’s dive in:
Note: Now that we’ve moved into the postseason, the reference period used for grading changes from the set of regular season games since 2012-2013 to the set of postseason games since 2012-2013. Unless otherwise noted below, this set DOES include play-in games. As of the end of May 20, 2026, this group include 1,193 games.
Factors that decided the game
- For as complicated and messy as the game appeared to be at times, the key issues deciding the game are actually quite clear.
- First, San Antonio’s shooting efficiency surpassed OKC’s (albeit by tiny-to-modest margins) from everywhere; in fact, in recent NBA history it has been quite rare for a team to win a playoff game with the FG%, 3P%, and FT% margins that the Thunder had (more on that below).
- Furthermore, OKC didn’t enjoy any notable advantage in rebounding; they did record one more offensive board, but San Antonio won the defensive glass by five (largely because the Thunder took more shots).
- Quite simply, the Spurs’ turnovers were devastating. Because OKC had 11 fewer giveaways, they had more opportunities to score, both from the field and at the free throw line. Most importantly, the Thunder enjoyed a FGA margin of +10, which allowed them to make four more shots despite having a lower FG%.
- On top of their advantage from the field, OKC had a FTA margin of +7, partly because of a terrible rash of fouls by the Spurs in the fourth quarter. This allowed the Thunder to extend their lead by four points from the charity stripe despite having a lower FT%.
Rare Box Score Stats
- Let’s start with team stats from the graded box score. Everything mentioned in this section captures the frequency of different statistical combinations in the 1,193 postseason games played since 2012-2013 (i.e., the “reference period”):
- This is the 30th game in which the winning team had a turnover margin of -11 or better.
- Given such a favorable turnover margin, it’s actually a bit shocking that OKC didn’t win in a blowout. In fact, they became just the eighth winner with a turnover margin of -11 or better and a point differential no greater than +9.
- San Antonio became just the eighth loser to log FG%, 3P%, and FT% values at least as good as 48.81%, 40%, and 88.24%, respectively.
- There were A LOT of offensive rebounds in this game, with 16 for the Spurs and 17 for OKC. In fact, this is just the 22nd contest in the reference period in which at least 33 offensive boards were recovered (that’s about 1.76% of the 1,193 postseason games played in this period, or roughly 1-in-54).
- The offensive rebounding numbers are especially surprising when you consider that both teams logged a pretty good FG%, so there weren’t a huge amount of rebounds to be had. In fact, there is just ONE other contest in the reference period in which 33+ offensive boards were recorded with both teams shooting at least 47.87% from the field. That other game was another OKC win, this time over Minnesota in Game 4 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals.
- The Thunder became just the 11th winner in the reference period to log FG%, 3P%, and FT% differentials as bad or worse as -0.94, -3.89, and -9.07 percentage points, respectively.
- Now let’s turn to stats for individual Spurs, which includes some good news and bad news:
- Wemby recorded just the 15th instance since the 1996-1997 postseason in which a player pulled down 41+ rebounds over two consecutive playoff games (this is excluding play-in games). Available data do not capture how many times a player has done this with Isaiah Hartenstein BLATANTLY HOLDING his off arm at all times, but I assume that this number is much lower.
- Sadly, Stephon Castle has become the first player across all true playoff games since 1996-1997 to run up a total of 20 turnovers over tow consecutive games. The previous high was 17, a former record shared by LeBron James and Cade Cunningham.
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
***Data Source:*The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected fromBasketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
By Boxscorehistory, via Pounding The Rock