By Zach Kram, 2026-06-01 19:00:00
各位NBA球迷，请准备好：打开《星球大战前传1：幽灵的威胁》，播放一曲《Livin’ La Vida Loca》，并让你的电脑服务器做好应对千年虫（Y2K）的准备。因为，我们仿佛瞬间回到了1999年。
纽约尼克斯队与圣安东尼奥马刺队将于周三（美东时间晚上8:30，ABC直播）拉开1999年总决赛重演的序幕，而最终的胜者将成为过去八个赛季中第八支不同的冠军球队。
自1999年以来，NBA已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。1999年是一个极其特殊的赛季，因为停摆导致赛程大幅缩水。当年的总决赛直到6月16日才开打——而这恰好是今年总决赛第六场的预定日期。1999年总决赛的平均比分为马刺85比80击败尼克斯。（相比之下，尼克斯在今年春季的两场季后赛中，仅在上半场就砍下了超过80分。）当年两队场均合力投进6.4个三分球——仅比朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 在马刺抢七击败俄克拉荷马雷霆队的比赛中个人投进的三分球稍多一点。
尼克斯球星杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 的父亲、现任尼克斯助理教练里克·布伦森 (Rick Brunson) 曾参加过1999年的那场系列赛；老贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Sr.) 同样参与了那次对决，而他的儿子刚刚结束了自己的第八个NBA赛季。当时，一位名叫迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的年轻助教距离被马刺聘用还有一年的时间，而他在2026年总决赛的对手——马刺助教米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 当时还在读初中。
但在两个关键方面，自1999年以来并没有太大改变：马刺再次试图凭借一位22岁的内线奇才开启新王朝，而尼克斯则再次力图夺得自1973年以来的首个NBA总冠军。
到目前为止，两支球队在季后赛中的表现几乎无懈可击。他们的季后赛净效率分列联盟第一和第二，进攻效率分列第一和第三，防守效率分列第一和第二。尼克斯正处于一波具有历史统治力的11连胜中，而马刺则刚刚在客场赢下抢七大战，淘汰了卫冕冠军。
随着维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、布伦森、德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和 OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 准备迎接他们职业生涯中最重要的一场系列赛——这场被证明是最令人兴奋的潜在总决赛对决——让我们先来看看可能决定总冠军归属的七个关键趋势。
跳转至对应板块：
常规赛三次交手的启示 | 文班亚马的对位防守
哈特的影响力 | 唐斯迎来大好良机
底角三分对决 | 篮板球之争
历史地位之战 | 系列赛预测
常规赛交手：一边倒的战绩
马刺在今年常规赛中的表现远优于尼克斯。圣安东尼奥取得了62胜20负的战绩，净效率为+8.4；而纽约取得了53胜29负，净效率为+6.4。
但在双方的直接交锋中，尼克斯取得了2胜1负的战绩，他们也是本赛季仅有的两支（另一支是阵容健康的金州勇士队）双杀文班亚马的球队之一。
这一战绩包括尼克斯在拉斯维加斯举办的NBA杯决赛中以124-113击败马刺。这场比赛虽然不计入常规赛战绩或球员个人数据，但为两队在高级别对抗中的交手提供了一个极具参考价值的样本。
在两队常规赛的两次交手中，马刺在跨年夜以134-132险胜，这得益于尚帕尼砍下的36分和11个三分球；而尼克斯则在3月份的主场比赛中以114-89大胜。这场25分的大败是马刺本赛季惨遭的最大失利——也是他们在2月1日至4月3日期间仅输掉的两场比赛之一。
在预测总决赛时，这些交手结果可能比以往更具参考价值，因为——这在2026年的NBA中非常罕见——两支球队在三次交锋中基本都保持了健康。乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)——后者正带着右小指骨折的伤势迎接这轮系列赛——缺席了马刺赢球的那场比赛，且马刺在去年12月的首发阵容也与现在不同。但除此之外，之前三次交手中的对位和阵容基本上可以延续到总决赛中。
文班亚马的对位防守
尼克斯在本轮系列赛中面临的首要问题是：他们将如何防守文班亚马？这位22岁的年轻人在今年季后赛中一直是表现最好的球员。他在季后赛中打满了15场比赛（不包括因伤病和被驱逐而提前离场的场次），在其中14场比赛中，只要他在场，马刺在比分上都是领先的。
尼克斯在防守文班亚马时有两个选择，他们在常规赛中混合使用了这两种策略。他们可以派出一名中锋（通常是唐斯，如果罗宾逊在场也可以是他）用更强壮的身材来对抗文班亚马。或者，他们也可以让身材稍矮但更强壮的阿奴诺比来顶防。
本赛季在与文班亚马的单挑对位中，唐斯的防守表现相当不错。在一次防守中，当文班亚马试图持球突破时，他完成了一次漂亮的抢断。
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 31, 2026
但如果尼克斯让唐斯在总决赛的大部分时间里防守文班亚马，他容易陷入犯规麻烦的缺点可能会成为一个巨大隐患。纽约需要唐斯留在场上——尤其是在罗宾逊的健康状况和场上效率存疑的情况下——而文班亚马在季后赛中场均能制造对手6.8次犯规。
与此同时，阿奴诺比可能是全联盟最适合阻止文班亚马落位的侧翼防守者。俄克拉荷马雷霆队在西部决赛中曾尝试用杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 采取这种策略，但由于文班亚马能够轻松碾压这些体型较小的防守者，雷霆最终基本放弃了这一打法。而身高6英尺7英寸、体重240磅的阿奴诺比则没那么容易被对手用身体强吃。
鉴于圣安东尼奥并没有一个需要阿奴诺比去贴身盯防的顶级侧翼得分手，在布朗权衡尼克斯的防守选择时，让阿奴诺比承担防守文班亚马的大部分重任，同时让唐斯去对位防守对方的投手，这或许是明智之举。
针对哈特的防守博弈
在球场的另一端，文班亚马的对位同样引人瞩目。在这里，马刺的首选策略很明确：他们希望文班亚马在名义上对位哈特的同时，扮演“自由安全卫”的角色，就像他在西决中对付卡鲁索和凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 那样。
哈特对这种防守策略并不陌生；克利夫兰骑士队在东部决赛中也曾让贾莱特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 采取过同样的防守理念。有时，哈特能破解这种防守，比如在对阵克利夫兰的第二场比赛中砍下26分；但有时，这种策略也会限制住他，比如在对阵克利夫兰的第一场比赛中，尼克斯需要用射手兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 替换下哈特，才完成了那场历史性的逆转。
对阵马刺时，当文班亚马对哈特实行退防时，尼克斯决定主动找文班亚马进行对抗。根据GeniusIQ的数据，在两队3月份的交手中，哈特设置了18次掩护，追平了他本赛季单场最高纪录。其中许多掩护看起来就像这样：
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 31, 2026
马刺更愿意将防守注意力集中在持球人布伦森身上——布伦森将主要由卡斯尔防守，后者在西决中让谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 吃尽了苦头——从而无视哈特，将他放空在外线。
哈特可以利用这一防守空档去冲抢前场篮板，或者转身为其他队友设置掩护。但他同样需要保持信心，在马刺防守允许的情况下，果断出手空位三分。
他能否投进这些球——就像卡鲁索那样，逼迫马刺改变防守策略——可能会成为改变总决赛走向的关键。
唐斯迎来大好良机
如果马刺让文班亚马去防守哈特，唐斯将在本轮系列赛中迎来黄金机会，因为随之而来的骨牌效应将迫使身材更矮小的防守者去对位这位自封的“NBA历史上最伟大的大个子射手”。
尚帕尼和德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 在西决中防守有些畏首畏尾的切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 时并没有遇到太多困难，但尽管唐斯的身材与霍姆格伦大致相当，他带来的挑战要严峻得多。正如他在季后赛中拿下的两次三双和场均5.9次助攻所展现的那样，唐斯是一个更主动、更精准的射手，一个更具侵略性的得分手，以及一个传球更犀利的策动者。
诚然，唐斯在常规赛中并没有展现出应有的侵略性。在与马刺的三次交锋中，他场均仅有10.3次出手，在尼克斯的五名首发球员中排名垫底。
但考虑到他最近的出色状态以及他在总决赛中可能面对的对位，我们完全有理由期待他本月能有更多的产出。
如果哈特迫使马刺放弃他们的“自由安全卫”策略，或者唐斯因为对方矮个防守者无法阻挡而迫使文班亚马前来对位，尼克斯将获得决定性的优势。在雷霆于西决中艰难寻找撕开马刺强大防守的突破口之后，不难想象，尼克斯在总决赛中可能会有多种方式取得更显著的成效。
纽约尼克斯队在常规赛对阵马刺时场均能砍下123.3分。丹佛掘金队是唯一一支对阵马刺时得分更多的球队。
底角三分的针锋相对
根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，在常规赛中，尼克斯和马刺是底角三分出手频率最高的两支球队。事实上，本赛季底角三分出手次数排名前四的球员依次是：米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)、阿奴诺比、哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和尚帕尼。
尼克斯在季后赛中在这些区域手感热得发烫，底角三分命中率高达42%。与此同时，马刺的这一数据仅为32%，在所有晋级次轮的球队中垫底。
这一差距与纽约在季后赛中整体的三分球优势相吻合。正如我上周所写的那样，尼克斯在今年季后赛的防三分运气堪称历史级别；根据GeniusIQ的数据，他们的对手在绝对空位下的三分命中率仅为31.9%，这是自2013-14赛季有追踪数据统计以来，所有打进分区决赛的球队中最低的。
但指望这种好运在面对马刺时能一直延续是危险的，尤其是如果纽约漏掉常规数量的底角三分。虽然尼克斯今年自己的底角三分出手率领跑全联盟，但根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，他们限制对手底角三分的表现也排在倒数第二，仅好于雷霆。
同样，这种防守倾向在目前的季后赛中还没有产生负面后果。但在总决赛中，瓦塞尔和尚帕尼似乎很有可能会在底角获得不少机会。这对于马刺来说通常是个好兆头，他们在季后赛中场均能以36.5%的命中率投进12.9个三分球。
篮板球的争夺战
尼克斯自4月20日以来还未尝败绩，因此上周当罗宾逊遭遇右小指骨折时，他们迎来了这一个多月来的首个坏消息。他接受了手术，据报道他预计会在总决赛中出场，但如果尼克斯这位替补大中锋的实力受损，他们可能会因此付出代价。
罗宾逊引领着纽约进攻中至关重要的一环。他今年24%的前场篮板率如果达到足够上榜的登场时间，本将创下NBA历史新高。在季后赛中，他场均仅出场14分钟就能抢下2.5个前场篮板。值得注意的是，在尼克斯击败马刺夺得NBA杯的比赛中，他疯狂抢下了10个前场篮板。
更广泛地说，二次进攻是尼克斯进攻的重要组成部分，因为罗宾逊、唐斯、哈特和阿奴诺比都极其擅长冲抢前场篮板。根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，纽约在季后赛中每100次投篮打铁能通过补篮得到29分，高居联盟第一。
但面对尼克斯这股势不可挡的篮板力量，马刺展现出了更坚固的防守：除了NBA杯决赛之外，圣安东尼奥凭借其镇守内线的7英尺4英寸中锋，在今年的防守篮板率上领跑全联盟。
在西部决赛中，前尼克斯中锋以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 证明了马刺在篮板球上并非无懈可击。文班亚马会感到疲劳，而且马刺在侧翼的身材上比尼克斯要矮小。
但一个处于满血状态的罗宾逊无疑会在这一环节上给尼克斯带来巨大帮助。在这轮看起来势均力敌的系列赛中，每一次额外的球权都可能至关重要。
历史地位之战
这两支打进总决赛的球队构建轮换阵容的方式截然不同。尼克斯的五名首发球员没有一个是他们自己选秀选中的，而马刺则通过乐透签选中了他们四位核心球员（文班亚马是状元签，迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 是榜眼签，卡斯尔是首轮第四顺位，瓦塞尔是首轮第11顺位）。
放大来看，无论最终结果如何，2026年总决赛都将载入史册，并改变人们对建队方式的一些固有看法。
如果尼克斯夺冠，布伦森将成为罕见的以球队老大身份夺冠的矮个后卫，从而为如何构建冠军球队树立新的典范。如果马刺夺冠，他们将打破常规，在几乎没有季后赛经验的情况下登顶，凭借如此年轻的核心阵容提前夺冠，并为潜在的王朝奠定基础。
无论哪种情况，布伦森或福克斯都将成为自2010年的德里克·费舍尔 (Derek Fisher) 以来，首位夺得总冠军的左手首发后卫。随着尼克斯或马刺成为八年来的第八支不同冠军球队，他们将延续这一创NBA历史纪录的奇景。
在接下来的几周里，要么是尼克斯终结半个多世纪的冠军荒，让美国最大的城市陷入狂欢；要么是文班亚马朝着全球超级巨星和篮球名人堂迈出下一个坚实的一步。对于文班亚马来说，没有比麦迪逊广场花园更大、更好的舞台去争取他的第一枚总冠军戒指了。27年前，当尼克斯和马刺上一次在如此关键的舞台上交手时，蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 正是在这里捧起了他的第一座总决赛MVP奖杯。
系列赛预测
在过去的一个月里，尼克斯打出了极其精彩的篮球，并且他们带来了几个即使是西部头号种子雷霆在面对马刺时也不具备的优势。哈特至少会有一场比赛——甚至可能是多场——让马刺为放空他付出代价，而唐斯和阿奴诺比的体型优势可能会让他们在进攻端对马刺除文班亚马之外的球员进行一番压制。
此外，尼克斯在总决赛开始前显得更加精力充沛，他们在分区决赛横扫对手后获得了超过一周的休息时间；而马刺的球星们则在对阵俄克拉荷马城的七场高强度、消耗巨大的肉搏战中，场均出场时间都非常长。
但与纽约在今年季后赛中遇到的任何对手相比，马刺都将带来更严峻的挑战。亚特兰大、克利夫兰和费城在常规赛防守效率中分别排名第10、第15和第17，而马刺则高居第3。此外，骑士和76人都是通过三场抢七大战才晋级并面对尼克斯的；今年春天，他们在面对除纽约以外的球队时总共取得了12胜9负的战绩，而马刺最近的对手俄克拉荷马城和明尼苏达在面对马刺之前，季后赛战绩高达12胜2负。
此外，两支球队的健康状况在过去一周发生了逆转。当尼克斯全员健康，而福克斯和哈珀都受到伤病困扰时，伤病运气似乎更青睐尼克斯，但这防守端的两位后卫在西决末段强势复苏，而罗宾逊的手术则让纽约的篮板强度以及唐斯身后的内线深度打上了问号。
如果尼克斯继续保持40%的三分命中率，同时让对手的三分命中率保持在历史低位，那么这些细节都将变得无足轻重。单凭这一优势就足以让拉里·奥布莱恩杯首次落户纽约。（这座奖杯于1977年首次颁发，比尼克斯上一次夺冠的时间还要晚。）
但我预计这一差距在总决赛中会逐渐抹平，而马刺统治级的防守将主导比赛。文班亚马将追随马刺前辈邓肯和科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的步伐，在22岁时荣膺总决赛MVP。预测马刺大比分4-2夺冠。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA Finals: Storylines, matchups that will define Knicks-Spurs
2026 NBA Finals: Storylines, matchups that will define Knicks-Spurs
All right, NBA fans: Turn on “Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace,” press play on “Livin’ La Vida Loca” and prepare your computer servers for Y2K. It’s going to feel like 1999 all over again.
The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will tip off a 1999 Finals rematch Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC), and the winner will become the eighth unique champion in the past eight seasons.
The NBA has evolved by leaps and bounds since 1999, which was an especially strange season because of a condensed schedule after a lockout. That year’s Finals didn’t tip off until June 16 – the same day that Game 6 is scheduled for this year. The average final score in the 1999 Finals was Spurs 85, Knicks 80. (By comparison, the Knicks have scored more than 80 points in the first half of two playoff games this spring.) The two teams combined to make 6.4 3-pointers per game – just slightly more than Julian Champagnie made by himself in the Spurs’ Game 7 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Rick Brunson, the father of Knicks star Jalen Brunson and a current assistant coach on the team, played in the 1999 series, as did Jaren Jackson Sr., whose son just finished his eighth NBA season. A young assistant coach named Mike Brown was a year away from being hired by the Spurs, while his counterpart in the 2026 Finals, Mitch Johnson, was still in middle school.
But in two key ways, not much has changed since 1999: The Spurs are once again attempting to start a dynasty behind a 22-year-old phenom in the post, while the Knicks are once again trying to win their first NBA title since 1973.
Both teams have done just about everything well in the playoffs so far. They rank first and second in playoff net rating, first and third on offense, and first and second on defense. The Knicks are on a historically dominant 11-game winning streak, while the Spurs just eliminated the defending champs with a Game 7 win on the road.
So as Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson, De’Aaron Fox, Karl-Anthony Towns, Stephon Castle and OG Anunoby prepare for the most important series of their lives, in what turned out to be the most exciting possible Finals matchup, let’s take a first look at seven key trends that could decide the championship.
Jump to a section:
What three meetings revealed | Wemby matchup
Hart’s impact | Opportunity for KAT
Corner clash | Board battle
Legacies on the line | Prediction
A lopsided regular-season series
The Spurs were a far superior team to the Knicks in the regular season this year. San Antonio finished 62-20 with a plus-8.4 net rating, while New York went 53-29 with a plus-6.4 mark.
But the Knicks went 2-1 in head-to-head matchups against the Spurs, and they were one of just two teams (along with a healthy Golden State Warriors squad) to beat Wembanyama twice this season.
That record includes the Knicks’ 124-113 triumph in the NBA Cup championship game in Las Vegas, which didn’t count in the standings or for any player statistics but provided a useful facsimile of a high-stakes game between these two teams.
In the two regularly scheduled meetings between the finalists, the Spurs won 134-132 on New Year’s Eve, thanks to 36 points and 11 3-pointers from Champagnie, while the Knicks romped at home in March 114-89. The 25-point loss was the Spurs’ largest of the season – and one of just two games they lost between Feb. 1 and April 3.
Those results could carry more import than usual when projecting the Finals because – in a rarity for the NBA in 2026 – both teams were mostly healthy in all three matchups. Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson – who is dealing with a broken right pinkie heading into this series – missed San Antonio’s win, and the Spurs had a different starting lineup in December than they do now. But otherwise, the matchups and lineups from the three previous meetings could mostly carry over to the Finals.
The Wembanyama matchup
The first question for the Knicks in this series is: How will they defend Wembanyama? The 22-year-old has been the best overall player this postseason. He has played 15 full games in the playoffs (not counting when he left early due to injury and ejection), and the Spurs have won his minutes in 14 of them.
The Knicks have two options to defend Wembanyama, and they used a blend of both in the regular season. They can call on a center (typically Towns, but also Robinson if he’s in the game) to combat Wembanyama with more size. Or they can turn to the shorter, stouter Anunoby instead.
Towns held up fairly well against Wembanyama in one-on-one matchups this season. On one play, he nabbed a nifty steal when Wembanyama tried to drive on him.
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 31, 2026
But Towns’ foul proneness could be a massive problem if the Knicks ask him to guard Wembanyama for most of the Finals. New York needs Towns to stay on the court – especially with Robinson’s health and effectiveness in question – and Wembanyama has drawn 6.8 fouls per game in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Anunoby might be the best option in the entire league for a wing who can prevent Wembanyama from getting to his spots. The Oklahoma City Thunder attempted this strategy with Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso in the conference finals, but mostly abandoned it because Wembanyama was able to overpower those smaller defenders. The 6-foot-7, 240-pound Anunoby isn’t easily overpowered.
Because San Antonio doesn’t have an apex wing scorer whom Anunoby would naturally defend, it might make sense to give him the bulk of the Wembanyama matchup – and let Towns hide out on a shooter – as Brown surveys his defensive options for the Knicks.
Open Hart surgery
The Wembanyama matchup is just as fascinating on the other end of the court. Here, the Spurs’ first option is clear: They want Wembanyama to play free safety while ostensibly matching up with Hart, much as he did against the likes of Caruso and Cason Wallace in the conference finals.
Hart is no stranger to this sort of coverage; the Cavaliers employed the same philosophy with Jarrett Allen in the conference finals. Sometimes, Hart beats that strategy, as in his 26-point showing in Game 2 against Cleveland. Other times, that strategy beats him, as in Game 1 against Cleveland when shooter Landry Shamet needed to replace Hart for the Knicks’ historic comeback.
Against San Antonio, the Knicks decided to take the action right at Wembanyama when he sagged off Hart. In the teams’ March meeting, Hart set 18 picks, per GeniusIQ, tied for his high in any game this season. A lot of them looked like this:
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 31, 2026
The Spurs were content to focus on Brunson – who will be guarded primarily by Castle after he tormented Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the conference finals – as the ball handler, ignoring Hart and leaving him open on the perimeter.
Hart can take advantage of that position to crash for offensive rebounds or pivot into setting a pick for another teammate. But he’ll also need to maintain his confidence to square up and take the open 3 the Spurs’ defense permits.
Whether he sinks those shots – like Caruso, who forced the Spurs to switch up their defense – or misses them could swing the Finals.
A big opportunity for KAT
If the Spurs place Wembanyama on Hart, Towns will have a golden opportunity in this series because the ensuing domino effect will force a smaller defender onto the self-proclaimed greatest big man shooter in NBA history.
Champagnie and Devin Vassell didn’t have much difficulty against a cowed Chet Holmgren in the conference finals, but even though Towns is roughly the same size as Holmgren, he presents a much stiffer challenge. Towns is a more willing – and accurate – shooter, a more aggressive scorer and a more incisive passer, as his two triple-doubles and 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs have demonstrated.
Granted, Towns wasn’t as aggressive as he could have been in the regular season. He averaged only 10.3 shot attempts in three matchups against the Spurs, which ranked last among the five Knicks starters.
But given his recent inspired play and the matchups he’s likely to face in the Finals, it’s fair to expect more production from him this month.
If Hart forces the Spurs to abandon their free safety strategy or Towns commands a Wembanyama matchup because their smaller defenders can’t stop him, the Knicks will gain a definitive advantage. After the Thunder spent the conference finals struggling to poke holes in San Antonio’s mighty defense, it’s easy to envision multiple ways the Knicks could have greater success doing the same in the Finals.
New York averaged 123.3 points per game against San Antonio in the regular season. The Denver Nuggets were the only team that scored more against the Spurs.
A clash for the corners
In the regular season, the Knicks and Spurs were the top two teams in corner 3-point frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. In fact, the top four players in corner 3 attempts this season were, in order: Mikal Bridges, Anunoby, Harrison Barnes and Champagnie.
The Knicks have been on fire from those spots, sinking 42% of their corner 3s in the playoffs. The Spurs, meanwhile, are at 32%, the worst mark for any team that won a round.
That gap matches New York’s broader 3-point gap in the postseason. As I wrote last week, the Knicks have been historically lucky with 3-point defense this postseason; their opponents have made just 31.9% of their wide-open 3s, per GeniusIQ, the lowest mark for any team that reached the conference finals in the tracking era (since 2013-14).
But it’s dangerous to count on that luck persisting against the Spurs, especially if New York surrenders a typical number of corner 3s. While the Knicks took corner 3s at a league-high rate this year, they also allowed the second-most corner 3s, per Cleaning the Glass, ahead of only the Thunder.
Again, that tendency hasn’t backfired in the playoffs thus far. But it seems likely that Vassell and Champagnie will get their fair share of opportunities from the corners in the Finals. That’s usually a good outcome for the Spurs, who have made 12.9 3-pointers per game on 36.5% shooting in the playoffs.
A battle on the boards
The Knicks haven’t lost a game since April 20, so they were receiving their first bit of bad news in more than a month last week when Robinson suffered a broken right pinkie. He underwent surgery and reportedly expects to play in the Finals, but if the Knicks’ big backup center is compromised, they could suffer accordingly.
Robinson leads a crucial element of New York’s offense. His 24% offensive rebounding rate this year would have been the best mark in NBA history if he’d had enough minutes to qualify for the all-time leaderboard. In the playoffs, he’s inhaling 2.5 offensive boards in just 14 minutes per game. And he notably grabbed 10 offensive rebounds in the Knicks’ NBA Cup win over San Antonio.
More broadly, second chances are a big part of the Knicks’ offense, as Robinson, Towns, Hart and Anunoby are adept at crashing the offensive glass. New York ranks first in the playoffs with 29 putback points per 100 missed shots, per Cleaning the Glass.
But the Spurs present a more immovable object against this unstoppable Knicks rebounding force: NBA Cup final excepted, San Antonio led the league in defensive rebounding rate this year, thanks largely to the 7-foot-4 center patrolling the paint.
In the Western Conference finals, former Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein proved that San Antonio can be vulnerable on the boards. Wembanyama can get fatigued, and the Spurs are smaller on the wings than the Knicks.
But a full-strength Robinson would certainly help the Knicks in that regard. Every extra possession could matter in a series that looks so closely matched.
Legacies on the line
The two finalists constructed their rotations in very different fashions. The Knicks didn’t draft any of their five starters, while the Spurs picked four of their key players in the lottery (Wembanyama first, Dylan Harper second, Castle fourth and Vassell 11th overall).
Zooming out, the 2026 Finals will make history and change some beliefs about team-building regardless of its ultimate result.
If the Knicks triumph, Brunson will become the rare small guard to win a title as his team’s best player, thereby setting a new example for how to build a champion. If the Spurs win, they’ll break the mold by doing so with minimal prior playoff experience, setting up a potential dynasty with such a young core winning ahead of schedule.
In either case, Brunson or Fox will become the first left-handed starting guard since Derek Fisher in 2010 to win a championship. And as the Knicks or Spurs become the eighth different champion in eight years, they will extend an NBA-record streak.
In the next few weeks, either the Knicks will break a championship drought of more than half a century, sending the largest U.S. city into euphoria, or Wembanyama will take his next giant step toward global superstardom and basketball immortality. There’s no bigger or better stage for Wembanyama to attempt to win his first ring than Madison Square Garden, where Tim Duncan claimed his first Finals MVP trophy 27 years ago, the last time the Knicks and Spurs met with so much on the line.
The prediction
The Knicks have played beautifully brilliant basketball for the past month, and they bring several advantages against San Antonio that even the top-seeded Thunder did not. Hart will have at least one game – probably multiple – in which he makes the Spurs pay for leaving him open, and the size of Towns and Anunoby could allow them to bully the non-Wembanyama Spurs a bit on the offensive end.
New York also enters the Finals much fresher, with more than a week of rest after a conference finals sweep, while the Spurs’ stars all averaged big minutes across seven physical, exhausting games against Oklahoma City.
But the Spurs will present a much more formidable challenge than any of New York’s prior opponents in this postseason. Atlanta, Cleveland and Philadelphia ranked 10th, 15th and 17th, respectively, in defensive rating in the regular season, while the Spurs were third. And the Cavaliers and 76ers advanced to face the Knicks only via three Game 7 victories; they were a combined 12-9 against teams other than New York this spring, while the Spurs’ latest opponents, Oklahoma City and Minnesota, had a 12-2 playoff record before facing San Antonio.
Moreover, the two teams’ health status has swung in the past week. Injury luck looked as if it would favor the Knicks when they were fully healthy and both Fox and Harper were hampered, but those two guards closed the West finals strong while Robinson’s surgery raises questions about New York’s rebounding strength and depth behind Towns.
If the Knicks continue to make 40% of their 3-pointers while allowing a historically low 3-point mark, none of those nuances will matter. That would be enough of an advantage on its own to bring the Larry O’Brien Trophy to New York for the first time. (This trophy was first awarded in 1977, more recently than the Knicks’ last title.)
But I expect that gap to even out in the Finals and the Spurs’ dominant defense to rule the day. Wembanyama will join fellow Spurs Duncan and Kawhi Leonard as Finals MVPs in their age-22 seasons. San Antonio in six.
By Zach Kram, via ESPN