By Zach Kram / ESPN, 2026-09-09 19:00:00
虽然距离比赛打响还有数周时间，各队的训练营也尚未开启，但2026-27赛季的NBA已近在眼前。
随着联盟几乎所有重磅休赛期运作尘埃落定，以及赛季前瞻报道的全面铺开，现在是时候对新赛季的竞争格局进行初步审视了。要排出精准的1到30位排名尚为时过早，但我们可以根据各队的预期前景，将它们划分为几个大档次。
首先从第一档开始，本档由联盟中最顶尖的三支球队组成。（注：各档次内的球队按英文首字母顺序排列。）
跳转至对应档次：
争冠大热门
存在隐患的西部劲旅
常规赛赢球机器 | 上限极高的总决赛竞争者
东南赛区中坚力量
潜在附加赛竞争者
非竞争区：A组 | B组
争冠大热门
纽约尼克斯
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
圣安东尼奥马刺
这三支球队在上赛季证明了自己处于联盟之巅，尼克斯、雷霆和马刺也是仅有的能在分区决赛中取胜的队伍。如今，他们依然独成一档。在2026-27赛季，这三支球队总共保留了上赛季15名首发球员中的14位，唯一的例外是入选最佳防守阵容的侧翼卢根茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)（被雷霆交易至老鹰）。
这三支球队进入新赛季的目标皆是夺冠，且他们完全具备实现这一目标的实力。尼克斯和雷霆是最近两届总冠军得主，而马刺则在6月远超预期地杀入了总决赛，并在夏天引进了经验丰富的老将托拜厄斯·哈里斯。
存在隐患的西部劲旅
丹佛掘金
休斯敦火箭
洛杉矶湖人
明尼苏达森林狼
这四支球队上赛季分列西部第3至第6名，预计他们在本赛季仍将维持在这一区间。不过，各支球队在休赛期采取了截然不同的建队策略。
湖人和森林狼围绕核心球星对阵容进行了大幅重组。湖人引进了一批自由球员，其中以中锋沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 为首；森林狼则交易得到了拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)，并签下了乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga)。然而，湖人失去了勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，森林狼则失去了朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 与纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 组合，这可能会让两队的前锋轮换捉襟见肘，也使得他们休赛期的运作兼具高风险与高回报。
相比之下，掘金和火箭基本按兵不动，人员变动仅限于替补席，其中掘金失去佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 尤为引人注目；不过火箭则会强调，因伤缺席了上赛季全部比赛的弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 复出，才是球队最大的补强。此外，火箭上周还以一份为期五年的合同续约了前锋阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)，确保了他与阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)、小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.) 和塔里·伊森 (Tari Eason) 组成的新生代核心阵容能够长期稳固。
常规赛赢球机器
波士顿凯尔特人
克利夫兰骑士
底特律活塞
波士顿、克利夫兰和底特律在2025-26赛季常规赛位列东部前四席位中的三席，尽管东部整体实力深度有所提升，但这三支球队本赛季依然有望斩获50场以上的胜利。凯尔特人因送走杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 遭遇了该组别中最严重的人员流失，但杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 在上赛季仅出战16场后迎来完整健康的赛季，这也将让绿军获益匪浅。
然而，对于这三支球队而言，更大的问号在于季后赛上限究竟几何，即便他们很可能再次取得较高的季后赛种子排位。凯尔特人在送走刚刚打出生涯最佳赛季的新科FMVP后，其争冠底蕴似乎有所折损。
在上赛季夺得东部头名后，活塞在这个夏天并未解决他们的最大短板——在凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 之后，球队仍缺乏第二得分点。截至本文撰写时，入选最佳阵容的中锋加伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 在受限制自由球员市场上仍未续约。
最后，骑士为了得到佩顿·沃特森而送出了多名深度球员（外加一个无保护首轮签），虽然这是一次必要的大手笔豪赌，但由多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 这对极度偏重进攻的后场组合，能否在季后赛的高压环境下扛住考验，目前仍未可知。骑士上赛季打进东部决赛，随后被尼克斯横扫，算是向前迈出了一步。而沃特森在因伤缺席2025-26赛季季后赛后，同样未在季后赛舞台证明过自己。
上限极高的总决赛竞争者
印第安纳步行者
迈阿密热火
费城76人
多伦多猛龙
这几支上赛季胜场均在46场或以下的球队中，是否有谁能跻身东部前四尚不明确。但他们依然具备极高的季后赛上限，因为这些球队汇聚了极为耀眼的球星力量：泰里斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)、帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)、扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)、泰里斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、杰伦·布朗、勒布朗·詹姆斯、乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)、科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)（假定如此）以及斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)。
只要某个关键的“假使”能够如愿成真，每支球队都有充分的理由向总决赛发起冲击。如果哈利伯顿在跟腱撕裂复出后能找回昔日身手，步行者便有望重返总决赛。如果克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 和小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 能在前场球星身边提供足够的投射和进攻火力支援，热火便能跻身总决赛。如果球星之间形成良好化学反应，且恩比德在四五月份保持充沛体能，76人就有机会杀入总决赛。而如果伦纳德、巴恩斯和科林·默里-博伊尔斯 (Collin Murray-Boyles) 能率队打出东部最顶级的防守，猛龙同样具备进军总决赛的可能。
东南赛区中坚力量
亚特兰大老鹰
奥兰多魔术
这两支东南赛区的对手自成一档：他们的上限不足以与前面的球队比肩，但下限又高到不至于跌入后面的档次。
两队的相似之处还不止于此：
他们上赛季的战绩非常接近，老鹰取得46胜，魔术拿到45胜，两队都在季后赛中有过下克上的势头，但随后后劲不足。两队在休赛期都完成了实质性的阵容升级，老鹰交易换来了多尔特和阿隆·威金斯 (Aaron Wiggins)，而魔术则聘请了新主帅肖恩·斯威尼 (Sean Sweeney)，力求将球队全部的潜能转化为实打实的战力。
潜在附加赛竞争者
夏洛特黄蜂
达拉斯独行侠
金州勇士
孟菲斯灰熊
新奥尔良鹈鹕
菲尼克斯太阳
波特兰开拓者
犹他爵士
华盛顿奇才
这是规模最大的一个档次，涵盖了既有可能跌至积分榜下游、也有可能伺机杀入季后赛的球队。
在东部，夏洛特在2025-26赛季打出极为亮眼的收尾表现后，本赛季可能会出现退步。送走拉梅洛·鲍尔和迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges) 或许符合球队的终极长远规划，但鲍尔对球队上赛季的势头而言尤为不可或缺。在竞争惨烈的东部格局中，黄蜂如果最终跌出前十，也丝毫不会令人意外。
奇才正试图打破这一竞争格局——如果特雷·杨 (Trae Young)、安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 以及状元秀AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 能够磨合到位并保持健康，他们确实有这个可能。但在过去三个赛季分别仅取得15胜、18胜和17胜后，他们的复兴之路道阻且长，而且戴维斯的出勤率向来难以得到绝对保证。
不过，这一档次最大的看点来自西部，在排名前六的球队之后，西部的竞争格局显得异常混乱。
太阳和开拓者上赛季都打进了季后赛，但两队的上限似乎都不算太高。开拓者新任主帅米卡·诺里 (Micah Nori) 必须将达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 与贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 组成的新星光熠熠但颇具伤病隐患的后场捏合成型。与此同时，金州勇士在休赛期毫无大动作，正静待吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 从前十字韧带撕裂中伤愈复出。
在其他球队方面，独行侠和爵士有望在凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 和小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 全勤出战的加持下排名飙升，此外达拉斯的库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 和犹他的年轻后卫群若能进一步成长，也将带来助力。鹈鹕上赛季仅赢下26场比赛，今夏除了引进本内迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin) 外别无大动作，但阵中依然坐拥扎恩·威廉森 (Zion Williamson)、特雷·墨菲三世 (Trey Murphy III)、德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray) 和赫伯特·琼斯 (Herbert Jones) 等一众天赋出众的球员。
最后，千万不要忽视孟菲斯灰熊，他们拥有不容小觑的黑马潜力。泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome) 和扎克·埃迪 (Zach Edey) 上赛季在有限的出场时间内表现亮眼，探花秀卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 即便身为新秀也能带来立竿见影的影响。若这三名球员保持健康，灰熊完全有望将胜率维持在五成左右。
非竞争区：保留首轮签
芝加哥公牛
萨克拉门托国王
最后两个档次在战绩榜上处于大致相同的位置，这五支球队在本赛季几乎无缘竞争。但公牛和国王与最后三支球队之间存在一个关键区别：芝加哥和萨克拉门托握有自己2027年的首轮签。由于新规则对全联盟战绩最差的三支球队施加了限制，他们有动力赢下足够的比赛，以最大化自身的乐透抽签概率。
在休赛期引进了老将诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 和尼克·克拉克斯顿 (Nic Claxton) 后，公牛的实力足以避免落入倒数前三的境地；不过芝加哥的首要目标理应是培养马塔斯·布泽利斯 (Matas Buzelis) 与新秀卡莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson) 这对年轻的前场组合。
与此同时，萨克拉门托希望多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis)、扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 和基根·默里 (Keegan Murray) 的健康出战——上赛季三人合计仅出场81次——能够帮助球队提升胜场数，逃离所谓的“降级区”，尽管国王的未来核心目标依然是由新秀后卫小达柳斯·阿库夫 (Darius Acuff Jr.) 引领的前景。
非竞争区：失去首轮签
布鲁克林篮网
洛杉矶快船
密尔沃基雄鹿
与公牛和国王不同，这最后三支球队在明年春天甚至无法从糟糕的战绩中分得乐透红利：篮网欠火箭一个首轮互换权，快船欠雷霆一个首轮互换权，而雄鹿的首轮签则直接归老鹰或鹈鹕所有。
反直觉的是，这些交易反而可能让这三支球队更有可能选择摆烂，因为他们根本不在乎被交易出去的选秀权抽签概率是否缩水。不过，这些阵容中依然保留了足够的天赋，不至于沦落到输掉60场以上的地步。
布鲁克林引进了兰德尔，同时留住了小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)。快船拥有达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 和布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 两位近年入选过全明星的球员（假设伦纳德的交易顺利达成）。雄鹿自然失去了阿德托昆博，但他们目前阵中拥有半打实力不俗的后卫，其中包括正值合同年的前全明星泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro)。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：NBA preview 2026-27: Zach Kram tiers all 30 teams
NBA preview 2026-27: Zach Kram tiers all 30 teams
The games are still weeks away and the practices haven’t even started, but the 2026-27 NBA season is fast approaching.
Now that nearly all of the league’s important offseason transactions have concluded, and now that the season preview machine is revving up its engines, it’s time to take a first broad look at the upcoming landscape. It’s too early to conduct an exact 1-to-30 ranking, but we can place each team into a larger tier based on its anticipated standing.
Let’s start with the first of eight tiers, featuring the three best teams in the league. (Note: Teams are ordered alphabetically within their tiers.)
Jump to a tier:
The championship favorites
The flawed West contenders
Win machines | High upside
The Southeast Goldilocks tier
Potential play-in participants
Not competitive: Div. A | Div. B
Championship favorites
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
This trio proved to be the top tier of teams last season, and the Knicks, Thunder and Spurs were the only ones to win a game in the conference finals. And they’re still in a tier unto themselves. The group will collectively return 14 of the 15 starters in 2026-27, with All-Defensive wing Luguentz Dort (traded from OKC to Atlanta) the only exception.
All three teams enter the new season with championship expectations, and all three are eminently capable of achieving that goal. The Knicks and Thunder are the two most recent winners, and the Spurs reached the Finals much earlier than expected in June, before adding a solid veteran in Tobias Harris over the summer.
Flawed West contenders
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets
Los Angeles Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves
These four teams finished in the 3-to-6 spots in the Western Conference last season, and they’re projected to repeat that feat this campaign. Each franchise, however, took a different approach to the offseason.
The Lakers and Timberwolves largely remade their rosters around a couple of stars. The Lakers imported a handful of free agents, led by center Walker Kessler, while the Wolves traded for LaMelo Ball and signed Jonathan Kuminga. But losing LeBron James and the Julius Randle/Naz Reid combo, respectively, could strain both teams’ forward rotations, making their offseason transactions high-risk, high-reward endeavors.
Conversely, the Nuggets and Rockets mostly stood pat, with their only roster changes coming to the bench, most notably Denver’s loss of Peyton Watson; although Houston would argue the return of Fred VanVleet, who missed all of last season, is the biggest upgrade. The Rockets also extended forward Amen Thompson to a five-year deal last week, ensuring his future with the team’s young core of Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason.
Regular-season win machines
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Boston, Cleveland and Detroit represented three of the top four Eastern Conference teams in the 2025-26 regular season, and all three should remain in the 50-plus-win range despite the conference’s boost in overall depth. The Celtics had the biggest personnel loss of the group with the Jaylen Brown trade, but they also should benefit from a full season of Jayson Tatum, after he played only 16 games last season.
The bigger question for this threesome, however, is how much postseason upside there is, even if each team lands another high playoff seed. The Celtics seemed to lose some championship equity when they traded their recent Finals MVP, coming off the best season of his career.
After taking the East’s No. 1 seed last season, the Pistons didn’t address their greatest weakness this summer, as they still lack secondary scoring behind Cade Cunningham. And as of this writing, All-NBA center Jalen Duren remains unsigned in restricted free agency.
And finally, while the Cavaliers took a big, necessary swing by trading a bunch of depth (and an unprotected first-round pick) for Peyton Watson, it’s still unclear whether a backcourt built around two extremely offense-first guards in Donovan Mitchell and James Harden can hold up in the playoff pressure cooker. The Cavs took a step forward by making the East finals, before getting swept by the Knicks. Watson hasn’t proved himself in a postseason setting, either, after missing the 2025-26 playoffs due to injury.
High-upside Finals contenders
Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
It’s unclear whether any of these teams, all of which won 46 games or fewer last season, will break into the top four in the East standings. But they still have significant playoff upside because there is so much combined star power: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard (presumably) and Scottie Barnes.
There’s a reasonable argument for each team to reach the Finals, as long as one important what if goes the right way. The Pacers could return to the Finals if Haliburton plays like his former self in his return from an Achilles tendon tear. The Heat could reach the Finals if Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. provide enough shooting and supplemental offense around the frontcourt stars. The 76ers could reach the Finals if the stars mesh and Embiid is fresh in April and May. And the Raptors could reach the Finals if Leonard, Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles lead the conference’s best defense.
Solid Southeast squads
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
These Southeast Division rivals occupy their own sort of Goldilocks tier: Their ceiling is too low to fit in any of the earlier groups, but their floor is too high to go any later.
Their similarities extend further than that:
They finished in close proximity to each other last season, as Atlanta won 46 games and Orlando won 45, and both threatened to pull off a playoff upset before fading. And both made meaningful offseason upgrades, as the Hawks traded for Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins, while the Magic hired new coach Sean Sweeney in an attempt to turn all of their potential into better production.
Potential play-in participants
Charlotte Hornets
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
The largest tier features teams that could conceivably finish near the bottom of the standings but also could sneak into the playoffs.
In the East, Charlotte could take a step back this season after its scorching finish to the 2025-26 campaign. Trading LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges might have been the best move for the franchise’s ultimate long-term plans, but Ball, in particular, was integral to the team’s run last season. In the crowded East race, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the Hornets to finish outside of the top 10.
The Wizards are attempting to crash that party – and could do so, if Trae Young, Anthony Davis and No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa all mesh and stay healthy. But they have a long way to climb after winning just 15, 18 and 17 games across the past three seasons, and full health from Davis is far from guaranteed.
The largest takeaway from this tier comes out West, though, where the race looks incredibly jumbled after the top six.
Phoenix and Portland both reached the playoffs last season, though neither seems to raise a very high ceiling. New Trail Blazers coach Micah Nori will have to integrate a newly star-studded yet injury-prone backcourt featuring Damian Lillard and Ja Morant. Meanwhile, Golden State didn’t make any splashes this offseason and will await Jimmy Butler III’s return from a torn ACL.
Elsewhere, the Mavericks and Jazz could surge up the standings thanks to full seasons from Kyrie Irving and Jaren Jackson Jr., respectively, as well as further development from Dallas’ Cooper Flagg and Utah’s young guards. New Orleans won only 26 games last season and didn’t do much beyond adding Bennedict Mathurin this summer, but there is still plenty of talent – Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones – on its roster.
Finally, don’t sleep on Memphis, with its sneaky upside. Ty Jerome and Zach Edey were excellent in limited playing time last season, and No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer could provide instant impact, even as a rookie. If all three players stay healthy, the Grizzlies could approach a .500 record.
Noncompetitive, with their own pick
Chicago Bulls
Sacramento Kings
The final two tiers occupy the same broad space in the standings, as the five teams within them are unlikely to contend this season. But one key difference separates Chicago and Sacramento from the final trio: The Bulls and Kings possess their own 2027 first-rounder, which means they’re incentivized to win enough games to maximize their lottery odds, due to the new rules that penalize the teams with the three worst records in the league.
The Bulls should be good enough to avoid that fate, after adding veterans Norman Powell and Nic Claxton in the offseason; although Chicago’s primary goal should be developing the young frontcourt duo of Matas Buzelis and rookie Caleb Wilson.
Meanwhile, Sacramento hopes a full season of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray – after the trio combined to play just 81 games last season – will boost its win total out of the so-called relegation zone, though the Kings’ eyes are set on a future led by rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr.
Noncompetitive, without their own pick
Brooklyn Nets
LA Clippers
Milwaukee Bucks
Unlike the Bulls and Kings, these final three teams won’t even reap the rewards of their own subpar record next spring: The Nets owe a pick swap to Houston, the Clippers owe a pick swap to Oklahoma City and the Bucks owe their first-rounder outright to either Atlanta or New Orleans.
Counterintuitively, those deals could make tanking more likely from this trio, because they shouldn’t care if their traded picks’ lottery odds are depressed. Still, there’s enough talent here to make 60-plus losses fairly unlikely.
Brooklyn added Julius Randle while retaining Michael Porter Jr. The Clippers have two recent All-Stars in Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram (assuming the Kawhi Leonard deal goes through). The Bucks lost Giannis Antetokounmpo, of course, but they now have a half dozen quality guards on their roster, including former All-Star Tyler Herro in a contract year.
By Zach Kram / ESPN