By Zach Kram, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-11-17 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA 赛季已进行一个月，东西部联盟的格局分界线正开始显现。尽管东部依然有一位出人意料的领头羊（底特律活塞队，他们似乎具备了足以在竞争中站稳脚跟的防守实力），但净效率值排名前五的其他球队如今都是我们所预期的争冠劲旅。
与此同时，联盟的底层梯队也已分化开来，球迷和管理层们都梦想着能在看似实力强劲的 2026 年 NBA 选秀中摘得一位顶级新秀。
真正的看点在于中间梯队，各支球队正在激烈争夺季后赛的主场优势，并力求进入——或避免——附加赛。整个赛季，ESPN 的扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 和凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton) 将根据常规赛末及未来的成功前景，把 NBA 的 30 支球队划分为不同梯队。
跳转至相应梯队：
卫冕头号热门
总冠军实力竞争者
分区决赛搅局者
停滞不前的潜在竞争者
混沌的中游集团
附加赛梦想家
摆烂只为达林
第一梯队：卫冕头号热门
俄克拉荷马雷霆 (13-1)
本赛季，杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 尚未出战，而切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)、吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)、阿历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)、阿龙·威金斯 (Aaron Wiggins) 和以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 也各自缺席了至少四场比赛。雷霆队的外线手感冰冷，三分球命中率仅为 34%，排名联盟第 21 位。
然而，这支 2024-25 赛季的卫冕冠军在开启卫冕之路时，依然有望打出 76 胜 6 负的战绩。他们拥有联盟最佳的+15.4 场均净胜分，甚至超过了上赛季创纪录的表现。俄克拉荷马雷霆队的防守效率高居联盟榜首，每百回合得分比对手多出惊人的 6.6 分；谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的数据几乎复刻了上赛季为他赢得 MVP 奖项时的表现；而霍姆格伦似乎在进攻端取得了飞跃，场均能以极高的效率贡献生涯新高的 19.3 分。
要说对俄克拉荷马雷霆队唯一的指摘，那就是他们至今为止的赛程是联盟第二轻松的，这帮助他们刷出了历史级的净胜分。但毫无疑问，雷霆队独一档。 – 克拉姆
第二梯队：总冠军实力竞争者
丹佛掘金 (10-2)
休斯顿火箭 (9-3)
纽约尼克斯 (8-4)
克利夫兰骑士 (9-5)
费城 76 人队总裁达里尔·莫雷 (Daryl Morey) 提出了 NBA 的“5% 法则”，该法则认为，夺冠概率超过 5% 的球队应将全部精力集中在争冠上。使用 BPI 数据模型，这四支队伍是另外几支跨过这道门槛的球队——这个集团自赛季开始以来基本没有变化。
火箭队可以说是最大的惊喜，他们克服了弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 的缺阵，打出了联盟第三高的场均净胜分。休斯顿的进攻火力或许难以一直保持，但 2024 年的乐透秀里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 正在悄然填补范弗利特受伤留下的空缺，而当多里安·芬尼-史密斯 (Dorian Finney-Smith) 从休赛期手术中回归时，火箭队的深度还将进一步增强。
对于骑士队来说，今年的十一月并不像去年那样一帆风顺。但只要达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 能够恢复健康，考虑到他们的过往战绩和全员健康时的潜力，克利夫兰与纽约尼克斯队依然是东部最有可能的胜出者。
掘金队在上赛季季后赛分区半决赛中与俄克拉荷马雷霆队大战七场，他们看起来是本赛季雷霆队最大的威胁。凭借更强的开局和更好的阵容深度，丹佛有望拿下二号种子，从而推迟两队可能发生的再次对决。尽管新援卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson) 正经历投篮低谷，掘金队的场均净胜分仍高居联盟第二，这无疑会让他们备受鼓舞。 – 佩尔顿
第三梯队：分区决赛搅局者
洛杉矶湖人 (10-4)
明尼苏达森林狼 (8-5)
圣安东尼奥马刺 (9-4)
底特律活塞 (11-2)
亚特兰大老鹰 (9-5)
下一个竞争者梯队包括五支在攻防某一方面表现极为出色，但在另一方面却表现平平的球队。根据剔除了垃圾时间的 Cleaning the Glass 数据，森林狼的进攻效率排名第五，而湖人的有效命中率排名第四——即便勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)、卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 在总共 42 场比赛中仅合力出战了 21 场。而在防守效率方面，活塞、马刺和老鹰分别排名第三、第六和第七。
然而，如果这些球队想在季后赛中爆冷击败排名更高的对手，就必须解决一些重要问题。当詹姆斯回归后，里夫斯能否维持他的进步势头？一个拥有东契奇、里夫斯和詹姆斯的阵容，其防守强度是否足以在多轮季后赛中取胜？根据 GeniusIQ 的数据，湖人队对手的出手质量在全联盟排名第四好，只有战绩不佳的国王、篮网和鹈鹕比他们更差。
对于明尼苏达而言，问题围绕着仍然不稳定的控卫位置和防守状态。他们在 2023-24 赛季拥有联盟最佳防守，但本赛季已下滑至中游水平。此外，森林狼八场胜利中的七场都来自对阵联盟最差的几支球队——犹他（两次）、萨克拉门托（两次）、布鲁克林、夏洛特和印第安纳——因此，森林狼的火热势头可能更多是赛程的产物，而非真实实力的体现。（第八场胜利是在揭幕战对阵波特兰。）
马刺和活塞有着共通之处，都是由近年状元秀率领的年轻竞争者。他们也面临着相似的问题：在当今的 NBA，缺乏足够投射能力的进攻体系能否成功？马刺拥有更顶尖的天赋，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是 MVP 候选人，而德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 也刚刚从休赛期的腿筋伤势中复出。但活塞的优势在于东部顶尖强队远不如西部，凭借 11 胜 2 负的火热开局，他们应该能锁定一个较高的种子排位。
最后，老鹰队在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 上个月扭伤膝盖后取得了 8 胜 2 负的战绩，但他们目前的球队画像——防守第七，进攻第十九——与他们拥有这位明星控卫时习以为常的风格形成了镜像。在杨回归后，他们能否保持目前的防守活力，同时将进攻提升到联盟平均水平以上？ – 克拉姆
第四梯队：停滞不前的潜在竞争者
金州勇士 (9-6)
洛杉矶快船 (4-9)
奥兰多魔术 (7-7)
我们不妨称之为“自我检讨”梯队。根据我的数据模型预测，这些球队的胜场数都应超过 49 场，但到目前为止，没有一支球队走在这条轨道上。
开局最令人担忧的当属快船队，他们 4 胜 9 负的战绩暴露了球队的老化问题。布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 因髋部骨折接受手术后赛季报销，40 岁的克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 已经跌出轮换阵容，而科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 也已遭遇脚踝伤病困扰。快船对手 38.7% 的三分命中率不会一直持续下去，但到了这个地步，他们需要寄望于对手手感回归正常，才能勉强进入附加赛。
魔术和勇士则有更好的机会重返各自赛区的前六名，尽管他们当初肯定希望能获得季后赛首轮的主场优势。奥兰多也饱受对手投篮运气的困扰，而金州在上周战绩跌至五成后，已经取得了三连胜。 – 佩尔顿
第五梯队：混沌的中游集团
波特兰开拓者 (6-7)
迈阿密热火 (7-6)
密尔沃基雄鹿 (8-6)
费城 76 人 (7-5)
多伦多猛龙 (8-5)
波士顿凯尔特人 (7-7)
芝加哥公牛 (6-6)
作为这个中游梯队中唯一的西部球队，波特兰的顶尖天赋无法与更高梯队的西部球队相提并论，但由于西部底层的实力不稳，这支擅长跑轰和压迫式防守的开拓者应能轻松进入附加赛。他们是本赛季唯一击败过俄克拉荷马雷霆队的球队，也是唯一在常规时间内击败丹佛掘金的球队。
大部分的混乱局面出现在东部。这些球队之间——包括奥兰多和亚特兰大——实力差距微乎其微，导致潜在结果的范围非常大；他们中的任何一支几乎都有可能获得季后赛首轮的主场优势，也可能完全错失附加赛。他们已经展现了自己状态起伏不定和缺乏稳定性的特点：多伦多开局 1 胜 4 负，但已攀升至 8 胜 5 负；而芝加哥开局 5 胜 0 负，却已跌至 6 胜 6 负。
与此同时，密尔沃基雄鹿可能是这个梯队中最有可能在季后赛中表现超常的球队，因为扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 在进入任何系列赛时都将是场上最强的球员，直到可能进入总决赛。然而，即使像莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins) 和 AJ·格林 (AJ Green) 这样的角色球员挺身而出，雄鹿的辅助阵容似乎仍然有所欠缺，而且球队的负净胜分表明，他们更接近于一支平均水平的球队，而非真正的争冠者。 – 克拉姆
第六梯队：附加赛梦想家
孟菲斯灰熊 (4-10)
新奥尔良鹈鹕 (2-11)
萨克拉门托国王 (3-11)
菲尼克斯太阳 (8-6)
达拉斯独行侠 (4-10)
夏洛特黄蜂 (4-9)
这个梯队的六支球队中有五支来自西部，这足以说明东部中游集团的混乱程度（也充分反映了东部前 12 名之后的巨大断层）。当然，鹈鹕总得有个归属，尽管他们迄今为止的表现配得上最后一个梯队，但很难将一支没有自己选秀权的球队放在那里。
黄蜂队的竞争力比他们 4 胜 9 负的战绩所显示的要强，他们-3.3 的场均净胜分在西部可以排到第 10 位。然而，除非排在他们前面的球队出现伤病，否则夏洛特很可能将直接重返乐透区。
这就剩下了四支西部球队，其中至少有一支将默认进入季后赛。独行侠和灰熊在赛季初曾有更高的期望，但由于开局不力，他们的希望已破灭——达拉斯的问题源于近期被解雇的总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison)，而孟菲斯则是因为明星控卫贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 的不快。这两支球队都有可能转而拥抱摆烂，争取一个高顺位乐透签。要在萨克拉门托推行这一策略则要困难得多，在那里，“光束队”在 2022-23 赛季重返季后赛的兴奋感正日益成为遥远的记忆。
令人意外的是，这个梯队中氛围最好的属于太阳队。随着德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 打出全明星级别的表现，以及科林·吉莱斯皮 (Collin Gillespie) 很好地填补了受伤的杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 的空缺，菲尼克斯正在初步证明，球队的契合度比去年夏天交易杜兰特和买断布拉德利·比尔时失去的天赋更为重要。 – 佩尔顿
第七梯队：摆烂只为达林
犹他爵士 (5-8)
华盛顿奇才 (1-12)
布鲁克林篮网 (2-11)
印第安纳步行者 (1-12)
上赛季的乐透抽签已经证明——当时联盟战绩最差的两支球队，犹他和华盛顿，最终只抽到了第 5 和第 6 顺位选秀权——糟糕的战绩已不再能保证在选秀中获得一位改变球队命运的超级巨星。但在星光熠熠、拥有潜在超级巨星达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)、AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 和卡梅伦·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 的 2026 年选秀大会到来之前，这四支球队正在竭尽全力增加赢得状元签的几率。
这本来就是犹他、华盛顿和布鲁克林的全盘计划，而印第安纳则是在一系列灾难性的伤病导致其战绩垫底后，才加入了这个着眼于乐透的行列。爵士、奇才和篮网都旨在通过漫长的重建，找到能够带领球队重返竞争行列的基石球员；而步行者现在则有机会，在全明星后卫泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 从跟腱撕裂中恢复后，为他寻得一位年轻的二当家。
尽管犹他已经取得了五场胜利——比这个梯队其他球队的总和还要多——并且目前正在竞争西部最后一个附加赛名额，但他们本赛季欠俄克拉荷马雷霆队一个前八顺位保护的选秀权。因此，爵士将有充分的动机在接下来的比赛中输掉足够多的比赛，以确保那个选秀权留在犹他。 – 克拉姆
点击查看原文：Tiers for all 30 NBA teams: Real contenders to play-in dreamers
Tiers for all 30 NBA teams: Real contenders to play-in dreamers
A month into the NBA season, dividing lines are beginning to take shape in both conferences. Although there is still a surprising leader in the East (the Detroit Pistons, who look like they have the defensive chops to stay in the mix), the rest of the top five teams in net rating are now the contenders we expected.
Meanwhile, a bottom tier has separated itself, with fans and executives alike dreaming of snagging a top prospect in what looks like a strong 2026 NBA draft.
In between is where the real interest lies as teams jockey for home-court advantage in the playoffs and to make – or avoid – the play-in tournament. All season long, ESPN’s Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton will be sorting the NBA’s 30 teams into tiers based on their outlook for success at the end of the regular season and beyond.
Jump to a tier:
The Favorite to Repeat
Legit Title Contenders
Conference Finals Party Crashers
Prospective Contenders Stuck in Neutral
The Muddled Middle
Play-in Dreamers
Barren for Darryn
Tier 1: The Favorite to Repeat
Oklahoma City Thunder (13-1)
Jalen Williams hasn’t played this season, while Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have missed at least four games apiece. The Thunder have been cold from deep, making just 34% of their 3-point attempts to rank 21st in the league.
And yet, the 2024-25 champs are still on pace for a 76-6 record as they mount a title defense, with a league-best plus-15.4 point differential that’s even better than their record-setting mark last season. Oklahoma City has the NBA’s best defense by a whopping 6.6 points per 100 possessions; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is essentially replicating last season’s stat line, which won him an MVP award; and Holmgren appears to be making an offensive leap, averaging a career-best 19.3 points per game on tremendous efficiency.
Just about the only knock against Oklahoma City is that the Thunder have benefited from the NBA’s second-easiest schedule to date, which has helped inflate their historic point differential. But there’s no doubt that the Thunder are in a class of their own. – Kram
Tier 2: Legit Title Contenders
Denver Nuggets (10-2)
Houston Rockets (9-3)
New York Knicks (8-4)
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-5)
Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey is responsible for the NBA’s “5% rule,” which argues that teams that exceed 5% probability of a championship should focus entirely on winning one. These are the other four teams that clear that bar using BPI – a group that hasn’t really changed since the start of the season.
The Rockets are the closest thing to a surprise, having shrugged off the loss of Fred VanVleet with the NBA’s third-best point differential thus far. Houston’s offense probably won’t keep it up, but 2024 lottery pick Reed Sheppard is quietly helping fill the void left by VanVleet’s injury, and the Rockets will add to their depth when Dorian Finney-Smith returns from offseason surgery.
November hasn’t gone as smoothly as last year for the Cavaliers. So long as Darius Garland can get healthy, Cleveland still stands with New York as the most likely East winners, given track record and full-strength potential.
The Nuggets, who took Oklahoma City to seven games in the conference semifinals last postseason, look like the biggest threat to the Thunder this season. Denver could delay a potential rematch by claiming the No. 2 seed thanks to a stronger start and better depth. The Nuggets have to be encouraged that they’re second in point differential despite newcomer Cam Johnson suffering through a shooting slump. – Pelton
Tier 3: Conference Finals Party Crashers
Los Angeles Lakers (10-4)
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5)
San Antonio Spurs (9-4)
Detroit Pistons (11-2)
Atlanta Hawks (9-5)
The next tier of contenders includes five teams that are all very strong on one side of the ball and only middling on the other. According to Cleaning the Glass, which strips out garbage time, the Timberwolves rank fifth in offensive rating while the Lakers rank fourth in effective field goal percentage, even though LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have played just 21 out of a possible 42 games. And the Pistons, Spurs and Hawks rank third, sixth and seventh in defensive rating, respectively.
These teams have important questions they must address if they want to upset a higher-ranked opponent in the playoffs, however. Can Reaves sustain his leap when James returns, and can a lineup with Doncic, Reaves and James defend enough to win multiple playoff rounds? Lakers opponents have the fourth-best shot quality in the NBA, according to GeniusIQ, with only the lowly Kings, Nets and Pelicans faring worse.
For Minnesota, the questions circle the still-uneasy point guard spot and the state of the defense, which was the best in the league in 2023-24 but has fallen to the middle of the pack this season. Seven of the Timberwolves’ eight wins, moreover, have come against the worst teams in the league – Utah (twice), Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte and Indiana – so the Timberwolves’ hot streak might be the product of the schedule more than their true talent. (The eighth win came against Portland on opening night.)
The Spurs and Pistons have overarching similarities as two young contenders led by recent No. 1 picks. They face similar questions about whether offenses without much shooting can succeed in the current NBA. The Spurs have more high-end talent, as Victor Wembanyama is an MVP candidate and De’Aaron Fox has only just returned from an offseason hamstring injury. But the Pistons benefit from an Eastern Conference that’s much weaker at the top than the West, and they should be able to land a high seed thanks to their scorching 11-2 start.
Finally, the Hawks have gone 8-2 since Trae Young sprained his knee last month, but their current profile – seventh on defense, 19th on offense – is a mirror image of what they’ve grown accustomed to with their star point guard. Can they maintain their current defensive energy after Young returns, while improving to above-average on the offensive end? – Kram
Tier 4: Prospective Contenders Stuck in Neutral
Golden State Warriors (9-6)
LA Clippers (4-9)
Orlando Magic (7-7)
We might as well call this the “mea culpa” tier. These teams were projected for more than 49 wins by my stats-based model, and none of them are tracking that way thus far.
The most concerning start belongs to the Clippers, who have shown their age in going 4-9. Bradley Beal is out for the year following a hip fracture that required surgery, 40-year-old Chris Paul has fallen out of the rotation and Kawhi Leonard has already dealt with an ankle injury. Clippers opponents won’t keep up 38.7% 3-point shooting, but at this point, they need to benefit from regression just to make the play-in.
The Magic and Warriors stand a better chance of working their way back into the top six in their respective conferences, though they surely hoped to secure home-court advantage in the first round. Orlando, too, has been on the wrong side of opponent shooting luck, while Golden State has already won three consecutive games after dropping to .500 last week. – Pelton
Tier 5: The Muddled Middle
Portland Trail Blazers (6-7)
Miami Heat (7-6)
Milwaukee Bucks (8-6)
Philadelphia 76ers (7-5)
Toronto Raptors (8-5)
Boston Celtics (7-7)
Chicago Bulls (6-6)
As the lone Western Conference team in this middling tier, Portland doesn’t have the top-end talent to match the West teams in higher tiers, but the bottom of the conference is shaky enough that the running, pressing Trail Blazers should make the play-in tournament with ease. They’re the only team this season to beat Oklahoma City, plus they’re the only team to beat Denver in regulation.
Most of the muddle comes in the East. With so little separation between these teams – including Orlando and Atlanta – there’s a huge range in potential outcomes; almost all of them could either land home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs or miss the play-in entirely. They’ve already demonstrated how streaky and inconsistent they can be: Toronto started 1-4 but has climbed to 8-5, while Chicago started 5-0 but has fallen to 6-6.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, might be the team in this tier most likely to outperform in a playoff setting, as Giannis Antetokounmpo will enter every series as the best player until possibly the Finals. Yet even as role players such as Ryan Rollins and AJ Green have stepped up, the Bucks’ supporting cast still seems lacking, and the team’s negative point differential suggests they’re much closer to average than true contention. – Kram
Tier 6: Play-in Dreamers
Memphis Grizzlies (4-10)
New Orleans Pelicans (2-11)
Sacramento Kings (3-11)
Phoenix Suns (8-6)
Dallas Mavericks (4-10)
Charlotte Hornets (4-9)
It says something about the muddled middle in the East (and a lot about the steep divide after the conference’s top 12) that five of the six teams in this tier are out West. Of course, the Pelicans had to slot somewhere, and it’s hard to put a team without its own draft pick in the last tier even though New Orleans’ performance thus far has merited that spot.
The Hornets have been more competitive than their 4-9 record would indicate, with a minus-3.3 point differential that would rank 10th in the West. Barring injuries above them, however, Charlotte will most likely head directly back to the lottery.
That leaves four West teams, at least one of which will make the postseason by default. The Mavericks and Grizzlies had higher aspirations entering the year, which have been torpedoed by slow starts amid problems caused by recently fired GM Nico Harrison in Dallas and star point guard Ja Morant’s unhappiness in Memphis. Both are contenders to go the other direction and embrace a run at a high lottery pick. That’s a harder sell in Sacramento, where the excitement of the “Beam Team” returning to the playoffs in 2022-23 is becoming an increasingly distant memory.
The best vibes in this tier, surprisingly, belong to the Suns. With Devin Booker playing at an All-NBA level and Collin Gillespie filling in well for the injured Jalen Green, Phoenix is making an early case for fit over the talent lost when Durant was traded and Bradley Beal bought out last summer. – Pelton
Tier 7: Barren for Darryn
Utah Jazz (5-8)
Washington Wizards (1-12)
Brooklyn Nets (2-11)
Indiana Pacers (1-12)
As the lottery demonstrated last season, when the two worst teams in the league – Utah and Washington – landed only the No. 5 and 6 picks, there’s no longer a guarantee that a terrible record will lead to a franchise-altering superstar in the draft. But in advance of a loaded 2026 draft featuring potential superstars Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer, this quartet of teams is doing its best to increase the odds of winning a top pick.
That was the plan all along for Utah, Washington and Brooklyn, while Indiana has joined the look-ahead-to-the-lottery party after a succession of disastrous injuries buried the Pacers in the standings. The Jazz, Wizards and Nets are all aiming to land the cornerstone who can pave the way back to contention after a long rebuild, while the Pacers now have the chance to nab a young co-star for Tyrese Haliburton once the All-NBA guard returns from a torn Achilles.
While Utah has five wins – more than the rest of the teams in this tier combined – and is currently in contention for the West’s last play-in spot, the Jazz owe a top-eight-protected pick to Oklahoma City this season. So the Jazz will have every incentive to lose enough games the rest of the way to ensure that pick stays in Utah. – Kram
By Zach Kram, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN