By Ben Golliver, 2026-07-31 19:00:00
NBA的群雄并起时代在上赛季得以延续，纽约尼克斯成为过去八年里第八支不同的总冠军球队。六月的“大苹果城”一片欢腾，这理应给联盟中那些久经磨难的球迷群体点燃希望。
如果纽约能在告别季后赛舞台大半段过去25年后，赢下自1973年以来的首个总冠军，那么每支球队都敢于梦想捧起拉里·奥布莱恩奖杯。下一个会是谁？
过去的八位总冠军在阵容上有一些相似之处：每支球队都拥有一位名人堂级别的领袖、辅助性的球星力量，以及相当程度的季后赛经验。在他们为季后赛打造阵容的过程中，八支球队里有六支拥有联盟前五的进攻火力，七支防守效率位列联盟前十。
但过去的八个赛季同样证明，通往巅峰的道路不止一条：多伦多猛龙在2019年交易得到科怀·伦纳德后立刻夺冠，丹佛掘金在2022年凭借中游水平的防守问鼎，而俄克拉荷马城雷霆则在2025年以一套极其年轻的阵容捧杯。
让我们借鉴过去八个赛季的经验，审视一下自2019年——这个群雄并起时代的开端——以来未能夺冠的22支球队。随着2027年冠军争夺战逐渐成为焦点，哪些球队最有希望成为过去九年里的第九个不同冠军？哪些球队正作为低调的竞争者悄然崛起？又有哪些正在进行重建的球队能在2030年前加入争冠行列？
跳转至梯队：
冠军就绪 | 有力竞争者
追赶集团 | 奇迹有可能发生
或许等到2030年 | 或许等到2032年
永不说不 | 或许永远不会
第一梯队：冠军就绪
圣安东尼奥马刺
上一次夺冠：2014年
马刺之所以独占第一梯队，是因为他们满足了冠军争夺者的所有条件：他们拥有维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 这位顶级超级巨星、多位得力助手和深厚的板凳席，而且他们上赛季的进攻和防守效率均位列联盟前三。尽管马刺的年轻在总决赛对阵尼克斯时一系列的崩盘中付出了代价，但2025年的雷霆证明，天赋异禀的年轻球队有能力迅速从季后赛的失利中吸取教训。
俗话说，“差一点”只在马蹄铁比赛和投掷手榴弹里算数，但这在NBA季后赛中同样重要。过去八届冠军中有七支在最终夺冠前不久，至少打进过分区半决赛，更有六支是建立在分区决赛之旅的基础上。
马刺在对阵尼克斯时的末节崩盘令人痛心，但他们能够将总决赛比赛拖入决胜时刻的这一事实，应被视为他们未来有能力在最高水平舞台上竞争的佐证。还记得扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的密尔沃基雄鹿在2021年一雪前耻之前，是如何在2019年东部决赛中崩盘的吗？还记得杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 在波士顿凯尔特人2024年夺冠前，有多少次功亏一篑吗？功败垂成也很重要。
圣安东尼奥在这个休赛期没有重大人员流失，并且补充了老将前锋托拜厄斯·哈里斯，增强了前场轮换。一切准备就绪，他们有望迎来又一个60胜的赛季，而文班亚马则可能捧起个人首座MVP奖杯。
也许马刺面临的最大问题是米奇·约翰逊，他在自己执教的首个完整赛季里未能在总决赛中止住球队的颓势。但米奇·约翰逊的经验不足不应被视为决定性障碍：过去八支冠军球队中有七支是由此前未曾夺冠的教练执掌的。
第二梯队：有力竞争者
费城76人
上一次夺冠：1983年
面貌一新的76人如今在各个层面都拥有了冠军经验，这要归功于新加盟的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、主教练尼克·纳斯 (Nick Nurse) 以及管理层高管鲍勃·迈尔斯 (Bob Myers) 和迈克·甘西 (Mike Gansey)。这是一个至关重要的发展，因为乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 在费城的岁月一直被他无法在季后赛中保持健康的身体所定义。缺少一个可靠的超级巨星领袖，就没有任何理由去认真对待费城。
尽管NBA在过去几年经历了青春风暴，但76人却反其道而行之，引进了41岁的詹姆斯和29岁的布朗，而非围绕泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 和VJ·埃奇库姆 (V.J. Edgecombe) 这对更年轻的后场组合完全重置球队的时间线。随着这两位新球星的加入，76人薪资最高的八名球员平均年龄达到了27.9岁。这与过去几位冠军得主的情况大致相当：2026年的尼克斯（28.1岁）、布朗所在的2024年凯尔特人（28.2岁）以及詹姆斯所在的2020年湖人（29.5岁）。纳斯执教的2019年猛龙队平均年龄也高于联盟平均水平（27.3岁）。
费城的争冠希望取决于他们能否迅速建立化学反应：詹姆斯、恩比德、布朗和马克西都是需要球权的球星，四人都需要为进攻端的利益做出牺牲。在防守端，76人必须展现出显著的进步，上赛季他们在常规赛的防守效率仅排第17位，在2026年季后赛的16支球队中也只排第14位。在过去八年里，没有一支球队能带着如此不稳固的防守赢得总冠军。
76人在这第二梯队中拥有最高的上限，但围绕他们适配性、年龄、健康和防守基础的疑问，也让他们同样拥有最低的下限。到明年六月，詹姆斯选择加盟费城的决定可能会显得无比明智，也可能是一场灾难。
明尼苏达森林狼
上一次夺冠：从未
在上述“功败垂成也很重要”的讨论中，森林狼值得称赞：他们在过去三个赛季平均赢下51.3场比赛，并在2024年和2025年打进了西部决赛。尽管安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 年仅24岁，但他已率领球队在季后赛系列赛中击败过湖人、勇士、掘金和菲尼克斯太阳。与此同时，森林狼的防守效率在过去四个赛季都位列联盟前十。
即便如此，爱德华兹和森林狼总有一个坏习惯，那就是在艰难的季后赛系列赛尾声阶段泄气，被对手冲垮。森林狼最近一次这样的失利——在第二轮对阵马刺——促使了一个忙碌的休赛期：拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 加盟，朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 和纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 离队。森林狼在这笔交易中增强了组织能力，但牺牲了体型，不过这是一场可能有助于解决他们季后赛困境的赌博。鲍尔无疑是爱德华兹身边搭档过的最具活力的后卫，而在鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 回归后，明尼苏达的防守应该能保持精英水准。
重担落在了爱德华兹肩上，他在季后赛期间一直与膝伤作斗争，在正面交锋中先后败给卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、亚历山大 (Gilgeous-Alexander) 和文班亚马后，他需要继续提升自己。他拥有爆炸性的得分能力和身体天赋，具备成为一支冠军球队最佳球员的潜质，但他必须在压力达到顶峰时展现出更好的专注度和稳定性。
明尼苏达的比赛计划，可以与波士顿在2024年之前围绕塔图姆和布朗的策略相提并论：不断调整阵容，确保爱德华兹在整个20多岁期间始终处于能够深入季后赛的位置，然后期待他最终将丰富的季后赛经验转化为一座总冠军奖杯。
底特律活塞
上一次夺冠：2004年
刚刚经历了一个60胜赛季并闯入分区半决赛的活塞，与2025年的雷霆有相似之处，都是一支年轻而强悍的队伍，拥有顶级防守和一名入选最佳阵容的进攻引擎。和俄克拉荷马城很相似，底特律从乐透球队迅速蜕变为竞争者的过程，是由对选秀和球员发展的专注所驱动的。事实证明，上赛季联盟中唯一防守比活塞更好的球队就是雷霆。
凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 目前还达不到谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的级别，但底特律在进攻端最大的问题在于缺少一个扮演杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 那种二当家角色的人。在活塞的进攻效率常规赛排名第九之后，到了季后赛，这一数据下降了近七分。不幸的是，用约翰·科林斯 (John Collins) 顶替托拜厄斯·哈里斯实际上可能会让情况变得更糟。
假设活塞能够解决杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 的受限制自由球员身份问题，并在交易截止日前补充一定程度的组织进攻火力，那么24岁的康宁汉姆就有机会带领坚韧的活塞在季后赛中走得更远。然而，底特律上赛季的健康状况异常良好，如果遭遇伤病侵袭，其强劲的上升势头可能会受挫。
第三梯队：追赶集团
克利夫兰骑士
上一次夺冠：2016年
*从分析角度看，*肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 执教的骑士或许有理由在这份榜单上排名更高。毕竟，他们上赛季凭借打进东部决赛，比76人、森林狼和活塞走得更远。
但很难摆脱这样一种感觉：克利夫兰是一支“良好到非常好”的球队，却在冠军争夺中已失先机。骑士上赛季比2024-25赛季少赢了12场比赛，他们的防守效率也从第八位下滑至第十五位。
与此同时，赛季中期加盟的詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 帮助骑士在对阵多伦多猛龙和活塞的七场鏖战中幸存下来，但当尼克斯在东部决赛横扫他们时，哈登不出所料地耗尽了燃料。这位36岁的后卫在季后赛期间交出了难看的41%/30%/83%的投篮命中率，并且失误次数几乎与助攻数持平。
骑士在这个夏天错过了签下勒布朗·詹姆斯作为改变势头的拼图的机会，转而选择了马里奥·赫佐尼亚 (Mario Hezonja)。再加上过去两个休赛期达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)、泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome)、迪恩·韦德 (Dean Wade)、卡里斯·勒韦尔 (Caris LeVert)、德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter) 和艾萨克·奥科罗 (Isaac Okoro) 的离开，越来越难以相信克利夫兰能够重现2024-25赛季的魔力。
如果多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)、埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·艾伦 (Jarrett Allen) 能够完美互补，也许骑士还能在不断的人员更迭中挺过来。但遗憾的是，事实并非如此：这对高薪三人组在去年的季后赛中净效率值为负。
休斯顿火箭
上一次夺冠：1995年
休斯顿季后赛惨败所引发的合乎情理的愤怒，已开始在一个稳健的休赛期过后，被重燃的希望所取代。火箭在首轮系列赛中被湖人彻底羞辱，但有一些明显的客观情况：弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 因伤缺席了整个赛季，而凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 则因伤缺席了六场季后赛中的五场。
上赛季攻防效率均位列联盟前十的火箭，在经历溃败后深吸了一口气，选择保持核心阵容完整。两个赛季前为休斯顿出战超过2100分钟的范弗利特，将重新加入这支保留了上赛季前六名球员，并补充了马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 和博格丹·博格达诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanovic) 的火箭队。
要为“韧性之城”再添一面旗帜，火箭必须在范弗利特回归担任组织者后，在进攻端取得长足进步。上赛季，休斯顿在最后五分钟分差五分以内的比赛中战绩为22胜23负，而其进攻效率从常规赛到季后赛下降了超过12分。杜兰特将部分主导权让给更年轻的队友或许是明智之举，但阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 和阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 在关键时刻常常显得不太可靠。
23岁的汤普森是未知因素：这位天赋异禀的锋线球员在第三个赛季得分能力取得了进步，但他糟糕的三分投射压缩了休斯顿的场上空间，并极大地限制了他的效率。他能绽放成为真正的球星并提升火箭的上限吗？
印第安纳步行者
上一次夺冠：从未
在这次分析中，步行者可能是最难定位的球队。一方面，在过去八届总亚军里，他们比任何其他球队都更接近夺冠。别忘了，在2025年总决赛抢七大战的半场结束时，印第安纳是领先俄克拉荷马城的。那仅仅是13个月前的事。
另一方面，泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 上赛季因跟腱撕裂缺席比赛，步行者缺少了他们的场上指挥官，战绩一落千丈，仅取得19胜。26岁的哈利伯顿上周分享了一段记录他康复进展的视频，令人鼓舞，但目前尚不清楚他能否立刻恢复到2025年季后赛时的状态。这位两届全明星在那次季后赛中简直像是来自另一个星球，完成了一次又一次的逆转，并命中了多个绝杀球。哈利伯顿的步行者能否从勇士身上汲取灵感？后者曾在2019-20赛季因斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 受伤而战绩惨淡，随后依靠这位明星后卫的复出赢得了2022年总冠军。
哈利伯顿将回到熟悉的环境中：里克·卡莱尔 (Rick Carlisle) 依旧担任主教练，帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 和其他几位步行者核心球员将继续辅佐哈利伯顿。虽然长期效力的中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 在去年夏天离队，但步行者通过交易得到伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac)，这可能是一次升级。
不幸的是，2027年的东部竞争格局应该会比2025年更加严峻，而印第安纳的快节奏打法这次不太可能再让对手措手不及。
第四梯队：奇迹有可能发生
迈阿密热火
上一次夺冠：2013年
如果热火想成为2027年总冠军的有力争夺者，围绕扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 这对明星组合的阵容构建仍有工作要做。具体来说，迈阿密缺少一个高水平的第二持球点和组织者来平衡进攻。即便这位两届MVP在南海岸的首个赛季就引发轰动，仅仅加入小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 和新秀射手瑞安·康威尔 (Ryan Conwell) 也不足以弥补为从雄鹿得到阿德托昆博而付出的轮换损失。
在错失勒布朗·詹姆斯之后，迈阿密可能还需要一年的精细调整来重塑进攻体系，该体系失去了诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 和泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 这两位头两号得分手。不过，值得记住的是，主教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 曾在2020年和2023年，靠着将不完美的阵容发挥到极致，两度率队杀入总决赛。阿德托昆博打出MVP级别的赛季、围绕阿德巴约构建的联盟前五防守，以及在交易截止日前注入天赋，这三者结合，能否再次催生一次低调的冲冠之旅？
亚特兰大老鹰
上一次夺冠：1958年
老鹰与热火恰恰相反：他们缺少一位久经考验的超级巨星领袖，但几乎其他所有基础都已覆盖。悄然间，亚特兰大已将特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 的时代翻篇，组建了一套在各个位置都储备深厚、拥有众多优秀且被低估的球员的阵容。
这套公式在季后赛中管用吗？嗯，老鹰是上赛季季后赛中唯一曾两次击败尼克斯的球队，但他们最终首轮出局，而且他们与过去八届冠军中的任何一支都不太相似。除非杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 能率领球队在季后赛中真正走远，或者老鹰能在这位全明星前锋身边再增加一位顶级天赋，否则一定程度的怀疑是理所当然的。
奥兰多魔术
上一次夺冠：从未
魔术感觉像一支被低估的股票：尽管他们排名前五的球员上赛季仅仅共同出战了19场比赛，但他们依然赢下了45场常规赛，随后在首轮差点爆冷击败头号种子活塞。但被低估了多少呢？如果健康状况好转，奥兰多能赢得50场比赛并赢下自2010年以来的首个季后赛系列赛吗？或者，保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 能有更大的梦想吗？
魔术寄望于首次担任主教练的肖恩·斯威尼 (Sean Sweeney) 能为滞涩的进攻增添创造力，并激励这群年轻球员打出他们在2024-25赛季那种联盟第二的防守表现。这要求很高，但斯威尼在担任助理教练期间，曾帮助东契奇的独行侠和文班亚马的马刺提前打进了总决赛。
第五梯队：或许等到2030年
达拉斯独行侠
上一次夺冠：2011年
独行侠，与排在四强梯队之外的其他球队一样，都是在为未来而战。在新任主教练达斯迪·梅 (Dusty May) 适应NBA的过程中，耐心是必要的，但达拉斯在其重建道路上比大多数年轻球队走得更远，因为他们拥有潜在的超级巨星库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 作为建队基石。
弗拉格全能的双向影响力和多位置适配性，理应使围绕他建队变得极其容易，而独行侠已经开始拆解一套老化的阵容，来围绕这位2025年的状元秀重新调整球队时间表。期待弗拉格能像文班亚马提升马刺那样迅速将独行侠转变为争冠球队，这要求太高了，但他在过去三年里的飞速进步表明，在不太遥远的未来，他具备成为MVP候选人的潜力。
犹他爵士
上一次夺冠：从未
尽管爵士没有像弗拉格那样独一无二的新星，但他们通过交易得到小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)，并选中了达林·皮特森 (Darryn Peterson)、艾斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) 和基扬特·乔治 (Keyonte George)，逐渐组建起了全联盟最引人关注的年轻天赋集合体之一。
2026年的榜眼秀皮特森，可以说是自安东尼·爱德华兹和凯德·康宁汉姆之后被选中的上限最高的后卫。这对犹他成为常年竞争者，并自约翰·斯托克顿 (John Stockton) 和卡尔·马龙 (Karl Malone) 时代以来首次打进总决赛的期望来说，是个好兆头。还有另一个保持乐观的理由：爵士在一笔先签后换送走中锋沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 的交易中，从湖人获得了两个无保护的首轮选秀权和两个首轮互换权。如果东契奇在好莱坞的时代未能按计划进行，犹他将坐收巨大回报。
第六梯队：或许等到2032年
夏洛特黄蜂
上一次夺冠：从未
黄蜂在经历了十年来最好的一个赛季后，选择在这个夏天交易走拉梅洛·鲍尔，打一场持久战。康·克尼佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)、布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)、科比·怀特 (Coby White) 和瑞安·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner) 组成了一个不错的核心阵容，尽管目前尚不清楚夏洛特是否找到了一位能够成为冠军球队头号选择的球员。
无论克尼佩尔或米勒能否真正脱颖而出，或是管理层需要继续寻找，黄蜂都需要几年的稳步发展才能真正进入争冠行列。
孟菲斯灰熊
上一次夺冠：从未
灰熊在六月的选秀大会上用探花签选中卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer)，开启了后贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 时代。布泽尔的全面技术、成熟度和完整的比赛能力使他成为理想的建队核心。他几乎能与任何风格的搭档共存，并在个人得分和带动队友之间自如切换。
话虽如此，在莫兰特的场外问题和伤病导致一个有前途的年轻核心未达潜力便沉没之后，孟菲斯需要多个赛季来进行重建。
芝加哥公牛
上一次夺冠：1998年
自迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 第二次退役以来，公牛花了近30年时间寻找一个能领导冠军球队的人。在那段时间里，德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 可能是唯一一个进入联盟时潜力超过卡莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson) 的球员。
这位四号秀并没有立即恢复芝加哥声誉的压力：威尔逊加入的是一支在上赛季仅赢31场后更换了教练和管理层的萎靡不振的球队。这需要一些时间。
华盛顿奇才
上一次夺冠：1978年
没有什么比拿到状元签更能开启一段蜜月期了：奇才上赛季只赢了17场比赛，今年夏天为特雷·杨开出了巨额合同，并且自罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 担任总统以来，球队胜场数再未突破50场。
既然AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 将在美国首都开启他的职业生涯，并且他身后还有一套已拥有数名近年首轮秀的阵容支持，以上那些历史还重要吗？自从约翰·沃尔 (John Wall) 大跳道基舞以来，华盛顿的希望还从未如此高涨。
第七梯队：永不说不
波特兰开拓者
上一次夺冠：1977年
为什么开拓者排在这么多重建球队之后？因为他们似乎陷入了不上不下的中间地带。他们近年来的高位乐透秀并没有展现出超级巨星的潜力，而且他们拥有太多尚可一战的老将球员，以至于很难轻易转向又一轮的选秀和培养。
除非德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 能再次实现巨大飞跃，否则开拓者将困在一个低上限、高下限的局面里。对于一支自2000年以来从未赢过一场分区决赛比赛的小市场球队来说，这已是常规操作。最近的球队所有权变更只会让前景更加模糊。
菲尼克斯太阳
上一次夺冠：从未
自从2021年那次不可思议的总决赛之旅后，太阳就一直在平庸——或者稍微好一点——的跑步机上原地踏步。在杜兰特短暂的任期草草收场后，德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 成为一支单核球队的门面，这支球队漏洞太多，且没有足够的剩余选秀权来填补。
尽管太阳老板马特·伊什比亚 (Mat Ishbia) 已展现出不惜代价获取天赋的意愿，但他极其激进的策略已被证明是一把双刃剑，因为他几次最大手笔的赌博都付出了长期代价。值得注意的是，菲尼克斯直到2033年都无法控制自己的任何一个首轮签。随着布克在十月年满30岁，太阳重新加入竞争行列的时间和资产都正变得极其紧缺。
布鲁克林篮网
上一次夺冠：从未
恰如其分地，篮网就是太阳的反面：自从将杜兰特交易到菲尼克斯后，布鲁克林已经忍受了三个惨淡的赛季，但至少它囤积了巨额的未来选秀权作为战争储备，提供了一丝希望。
唯一的问题是：篮网似乎从来不知道该如何使用他们的选秀权。尽管叶戈尔·德明 (Egor Demin) 可能被证明是个例外，但这支球队已经太久没有培养出一位本土球星了。考虑到其选秀上的挣扎以及围绕杜兰特和凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 建队的失败实验，人们有理由怀疑布鲁克林是否具备在最高水平竞争所需的文化基础。
洛杉矶快船
上一次夺冠：从未
和篮网很像，快船队史大部分时间都活在同城对手的阴影之下。尽管洛杉矶在得到科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 和保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 后曾多次接近夺冠，但总会有意外发生。现在，伦纳德成了一项针对薪资帽规避的、无休止的NBA调查对象，而快船则只能寄希望于能够将这位全明星前锋交易到猛龙。
快船寻找下一位当家球星的工作应该立即开始：五号秀基顿·瓦格勒 (Keaton Wagler) 能担此重任吗？或者，老板史蒂夫·鲍尔默 (Steve Ballmer) 会耐心等待时机，并寻求通过自由球员市场和交易来追逐成名球星，从而复制他为得到伦纳德和乔治所做的大胆操作？无论哪种方式，快船都需要几年的时间来重整旗鼓。
第八梯队：或许永远不会
新奥尔良鹈鹕
上一次夺冠：从未
小市场球队除非能够培养并留住他们最好的球员，否则根本没有机会持续成功。可悲的是，鹈鹕正是这条真理的完美例证：克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 和安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 都为了更广阔的天地而离开，而前状元秀蔡恩·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 也并未真正兑现天赋。
鹈鹕的短期前景令人担忧：他们的主要阵容球员不兼容，他们最近的乐透秀有明显的缺陷，而且在上赛季仅仅赢下26场比赛后，这个夏天他们几乎没有任何动作。让我们先把拉里·奥布莱恩奖杯的讨论放一边，问一个问题：新奥尔良还要多久才能赢下一个季后赛系列赛？距离上一次赢球已经八年，而且日子还在继续增加。
萨克拉门托国王
上一次夺冠：1951年
如果国王有朝一日能赢得总冠军，萨克拉门托市将举办NBA历史上最盛大的游行。看看这支球队忠实的球迷在2023年是如何团结在“光束队”周围的，就是证据。达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 等人被紫色的民众视为挚爱的英雄，尽管他们甚至没能突破季后赛首轮。
这种渴望，只有自2004年以来就没见过主队晋级，或者自1985年球队搬迁到萨克拉门托以来就再未进过总决赛的球迷群体才能体会。展望未来，国王球迷不得不面对一个难以预测的管理层、一位未经考验的教练、一套天赋匮乏的阵容以及一份充斥着溢价合同的薪资表。
最糟糕的是，萨克拉门托未能充分培养或留住数不清的乐透秀，包括福克斯、泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿、马文·巴格利三世 (Marvin Bagley III) 和德马库斯·考辛斯 (DeMarcus Cousins)。那句关于重复做同样的事却期待不同结果的危险的名言是怎么说的来着？
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Stacking which teams can keep the NBA's parity run going
Stacking which teams can keep the NBA’s parity run going
The NBA’s parity era continued last season when the New York Knicks became the eighth different team to win the championship in the past eight years, and the joyous scenes across the Big Apple in June should spark hope for long-suffering fanbases across the league.
If New York can win its first championship since 1973 after spending most of the past 25 years in the wilderness, everyone can dare to dream of holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Who’s next?
The past eight champions shared some roster similarities: Each had a Hall of Fame-level leader, supporting star power and a meaningful degree of postseason experience. As they built toward the playoffs, six of the eight teams had a top-five offense and seven of the eight had a top-10 defense.
But the past eight seasons also proved there are many ways to reach the summit: The Toronto Raptors won in 2019 immediately after trading for Kawhi Leonard, the Denver Nuggets won in 2022 despite a middling defense, and the Oklahoma City Thunder won in 2025 despite a remarkably young roster.
Let’s apply the lessons from the past eight seasons while examining the 22 teams who haven’t won a championship since 2019 – the beginning of this parity. As the 2027 title chase comes into focus, which teams are best positioned to become the ninth different champion in the past nine years? Which teams are looming as under-the-radar contenders? And which rebuilding franchises will be ready to join the party by 2030?
Jump to a tier:
Championship-ready | Serious contenders
The chase pack | Miracles can happen
Maybe by 2030 | Maybe by 2032
Never say never | Maybe never
Tier 1: Championship-ready
San Antonio Spurs
Last championship: 2014
The Spurs occupy the top tier by themselves because they check every box for a title hopeful: They have an A-list superstar in Victor Wembanyama, multiple co-stars and a deep bench, plus they ranked in the top three in both offense and defense last season. While the Spurs’ youth came back to bite them during a series of collapses in the Finals against the Knicks, the 2025 Thunder proved that exceptional young teams are capable of quickly learning from their postseason shortcomings.
The old saying goes that “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades,” but it matters in the NBA playoffs, too. Seven of the past eight champions had reached at least the conference semifinals shortly before winning it all, and six built off trips to the conference finals.
The Spurs’ fourth-quarter collapses against the Knicks were excruciating to watch, but the fact that they were in position to win Finals games should be viewed as evidence of their ability to compete at the highest level in the future. Remember how Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks blew the 2019 Eastern Conference finals before taking care of business in 2021? Remember how many times Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown came up just short before the Boston Celtics’ 2024 title? Close counts.
San Antonio has suffered no major defections this offseason, and it added veteran forward Tobias Harris to an improved frontcourt rotation. The pieces are in place for another 60-win campaign, which could see Wembanyama win his first MVP.
Perhaps the biggest question facing the Spurs is Mitch Johnson, who couldn’t stop the bleeding in the Finals during his first full season as coach. Johnson’s inexperience shouldn’t be viewed as a dealbreaker: Seven of the past eight title teams were led by coaches who hadn’t previously won a championship.
Tier 2: Serious contenders
Philadelphia 76ers
Last championship: 1983
The new-look 76ers now boast championship experience at every level thanks to newcomers LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, coach Nick Nurse and front office executives Bob Myers and Mike Gansey. That’s a crucial development, because Joel Embiid’s time in Philadelphia has been defined by his inability to hold up physically in the playoffs. Without a reliable superstar leader, there was no good reason to take Philadelphia seriously.
While the NBA has undergone a youth movement in the past few years, the 76ers cut against the grain by adding the 41-year-old James and the 29-year-old Brown rather than fully resetting their clock around the younger backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and V.J. Edgecombe. With their new stars in place, the average age of the 76ers’ eight highest earners is up to 27.9. That puts them in the same ballpark as several past champions: The 2026 Knicks (28.1), Brown’s 2024 Celtics (28.2), and James’ 2020 Lakers (29.5). Nurse’s 2019 Raptors were also older than league average (27.3).
Philadelphia’s title hopes hinge on its ability to build instant chemistry: James, Embiid, Brown and Maxey are ball-dominant stars, and all four will be asked to sacrifice for the good of the offense. On the other end, the 76ers must show significant improvement after ranking 17th in defensive efficiency during the regular season and 14th out of the 16 teams in the 2026 playoffs. No team has won a title over the past eight years with such a shaky defense.
The 76ers have the highest ceiling among the teams in this second tier, but the questions about their fit, age, health and defensive baseline give them the lowest floor as well. By next June, James’ decision to pick Philadelphia could look brilliant or disastrous.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last championship: Never
The Timberwolves deserve their kudos in the “close counts” conversation mentioned above: They have averaged 51.3 wins over the past three seasons, and they reached the Western Conference finals in 2024 and 2025. Even though Anthony Edwards is still only 24 years old, he has helped lead playoff series wins over the Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves’ defense has ranked in the top 10 in each of the past four seasons.
Even so, Edwards and the Timberwolves have a nasty habit of letting go of the rope and getting run off the court at the end of difficult playoff series. Minnesota’s latest such loss – in the second round against the Spurs – prompted a busy offseason in which LaMelo Ball arrived, and Julius Randle and Naz Reid departed. The Timberwolves are gaining playmaking and losing size in the exchange, but it’s a gambit that could help address their playoff stumbles. Ball is easily the most dynamic guard to line up alongside Edwards, and Minnesota’s defense should remain elite with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels returning.
The onus is on Edwards, who battled a knee injury during the postseason, to continue elevating after head-to-head playoff losses against Luka Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama. He possesses the explosive scoring ability and physical tools to be the best player on a championship team, but he must display better focus and consistency when the pressure is cranked all the way up.
Minnesota’s game plan is comparable to Boston’s approach with Tatum and Brown before 2024: Keep shuffling the deck so that Edwards is always in position to make deep runs throughout his mid-20s, then hope he eventually translates his vast postseason experience into a championship.
Detroit Pistons
Last championship: 2004
Fresh off a 60-win campaign and a trip to the conference semifinals, the Pistons share similarities with the 2025 Thunder as a young and forceful group with a top-flight defense and an All-NBA offensive engine. Much like Oklahoma City, Detroit’s swift transformation from lottery team to contender has been driven by a focus on draft and development. As it turns out, the Thunder were the only team to have a better defense than the Pistons last season.
Cade Cunningham isn’t quite on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s level yet, but Detroit’s biggest issue on offense is that it lacks someone in the Jalen Williams co-star role. After the Pistons’ offense ranked ninth during the regular season, it dropped nearly seven points in the playoffs. Unfortunately, replacing Tobias Harris with John Collins could actually make things worse.
Assuming the Pistons resolve Jalen Duren’s restricted free agency and add some level of playmaking firepower before the trade deadline, there’s a path for the 24-year-old Cunningham to carry the gritty Pistons to a deep postseason run. However, Detroit enjoyed exceptional health last season, and its extreme upward momentum could be stunted if the injury bug hits.
Tier 3: The chase pack
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last championship: 2016
Analytically, Kenny Atkinson’s Cavaliers might have a case to be higher on this list. After all, they advanced further last season than the 76ers, Timberwolves and Pistons by virtue of reaching the Eastern Conference finals.
But it’s hard to shake the feeling that Cleveland is a “good to very good” team that has lost ground in the title race. The Cavaliers won 12 fewer games last season than they did in 2024-25, and their defense slipped from eighth to 15th.
Meanwhile, midseason addition James Harden helped Cleveland survive seven-game marathons against the Toronto Raptors and Pistons, but he predictably ran out of gas when the Knicks swept them in the conference finals. The 36-year-old guard finished with unsightly 41/30/83 shooting splits during the playoffs and nearly registered as many turnovers as assists.
The Cavaliers missed their shot to land LeBron James as a momentum-changing piece this summer and settled for Mario Hezonja. Throw in the departures of Darius Garland, Ty Jerome, Dean Wade, Caris LeVert, De’Andre Hunter and Isaac Okoro over the past two offseasons, and it’s increasingly difficult to believe that Cleveland will be able to rekindle the magic of its 2024-25 season.
If Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen fit together perfectly, perhaps the Cavaliers would be able to survive the constant roster churn. Sadly, they don’t: The high-priced trio had a negative net rating in last year’s playoffs.
Houston Rockets
Last championship: 1995
The justified outrage prompted by Houston’s playoff debacle has started to give way to renewed hope during a solid offseason. The Rockets were utterly embarrassed by the Lakers in a first-round series loss, but there were some obvious extenuating circumstances: Fred VanVleet missed the entire season and Kevin Durant missed five of the six playoff games due to injuries.
The Rockets, who ranked in the top 10 on both offense and defense last season, took a deep breath after their flame-out and kept the band together. VanVleet, who logged more than 2,100 minutes for Houston two seasons ago, will rejoin a Houston team that retained its top six players from last season and added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
To bring another banner to Clutch City, the Rockets must make major strides on offense with VanVleet back as an initiator. Houston posted a 22-23 record in games that were within five points in the final five minutes last season, and its offensive efficiency dropped more than 12 points from the regular season to the playoffs. It would probably be wise for Durant to cede some authority to his younger teammates, but Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson often looked unreliable in key moments.
Thompson, 23, looms as the X factor: The athletically gifted wing made strides as a scorer in his third season, but his poor 3-point shooting deflated Houston’s spacing and dramatically limited his effectiveness. Can he blossom into a true star and raise Houston’s ceiling?
Indiana Pacers
Last championship: Never
The Pacers might be the trickiest team to peg in this exercise. On one hand, they came closer to winning the championship than any other runner-up during the past eight seasons. Remember, Indiana was leading Oklahoma City at halftime of Game 7 in the 2025 Finals. That was only 13 months ago.
On the other hand, Tyrese Haliburton missed last season recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, and the Pacers sputtered to just 19 wins without their floor general. Haliburton, 26, shared a promising video documenting his recovery progress last week, but it’s unclear whether he will be able to immediately recapture his form from the 2025 playoffs. The two-time All-Star spent those playoffs on another planet, pulling off comeback after comeback and hitting multiple game winners. Could Haliburton’s Pacers draw inspiration from the Warriors, who cratered during the 2019-20 season due to a Stephen Curry injury before riding the star guard’s comeback to the 2022 title?
Haliburton will return to familiar surroundings: Rick Carlisle is still in place as coach, and Pascal Siakam and several other Pacers mainstays will continue to flank Haliburton. While longtime center Myles Turner departed last summer, the Pacers landed a possible upgrade by trading for Ivica Zubac.
Unfortunately, the Eastern Conference landscape should be tougher in 2027 than it was in 2025, and Indiana’s up-tempo style is less likely to catch teams flat-footed this time around.
Tier 4: Miracles can happen
Miami Heat
Last championship: 2013
The Heat still have some work to do building around the star tandem of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo if they want to seriously contend for the 2027 title. Namely, Miami lacks a high-level secondary ball handler and playmaker to balance its offense. Adding Tim Hardaway Jr. and rookie shooter Ryan Conwell isn’t enough to offset the rotation losses that were required to land Antetokounmpo from the Bucks, even if the two-time MVP makes a splash in his first season in South Beach.
After missing out on LeBron James, Miami could need another year of fine-tuning to reconstruct an offense that lost its top two scorers in Norman Powell and Tyler Herro. It’s worth remembering, though, that coach Erik Spoelstra guided Finals runs in 2020 and 2023 by getting the most out of imperfect rosters. Could an MVP-caliber season from Antetokounmpo, a top-five defense built around Adebayo and an injection of talent before the trade deadline produce another under-the-radar run?
Atlanta Hawks
Last championship: 1958
The Hawks are the anti-Heat: They lack a proven superstar leader but have almost every other base covered. Quietly, Atlanta has put the Trae Young era in the past and assembled a roster stocked with good and underrated players with depth at every position.
Does that formula work in the playoffs? Well, the Hawks were the only team to beat the Knicks twice in last year’s postseason before their eventual first-round demise, but they don’t bear much resemblance to any of the past eight champions. Until Jalen Johnson leads a real playoff run or the Hawks add another premier talent next to the All-Star forward, a healthy degree of skepticism is warranted.
Orlando Magic
Last championship: Never
The Magic feel like an undervalued stock: They won 45 games last season even though their top five players played in only 19 games together, then nearly upset the top-seeded Pistons in the first round. But how undervalued? With better health, can Orlando win 50 games and its first playoff series since 2010? Or can Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane dream bigger?
The Magic are banking on first-time coach Sean Sweeney to add creativity to a choppy offense and inspire a young group to play defense as it did in 2024-25, when it ranked second in the NBA. That’s asking a lot, but Sweeney helped Doncic’s Mavericks and Wembanyama’s Spurs reach the Finals ahead of schedule during past stints as an assistant.
Tier 5: Maybe by 2030
Dallas Mavericks
Last championship: 2011
The Mavericks, like the rest of the teams outside the top four tiers, are playing for the future. Patience is in order as new coach Dusty May gets acclimated to the NBA, but Dallas is further along in its rebuilding effort than most other young teams because it has potential superstar Cooper Flagg as its centerpiece.
Flagg’s two-way impact and versatility should make him extremely easy to build around, and the Mavericks have already started tearing down an old roster to recalibrate their timetable around the 2025 No. 1 pick. It’s asking too much to expect Flagg to transform the Mavericks into a contender as quickly as Wembanyama lifted the Spurs, but his rapid improvement over the past three years suggests he has MVP candidate potential in the not-too-distant future.
Utah Jazz
Last championship: Never
While the Jazz don’t have a singular prospect on Flagg’s level, they have gradually assembled one of the league’s most intriguing collections of young talent by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. and drafting Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey and Keyonte George.
Peterson, the second overall pick in 2026, has arguably the highest ceiling of any guard drafted since Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham. That bodes well for Utah’s hopes of becoming a perennial contender and reaching its first Finals since the John Stockton and Karl Malone days. Here’s another reason for optimism: The Jazz landed two unprotected first-round picks and two first-round swaps from the Lakers in a summer sign-and-trade for center Walker Kessler. If the Doncic era doesn’t go as planned in Hollywood, Utah is poised to reap major rewards.
Tier 6: Maybe by 2032
Charlotte Hornets
Last championship: Never
The Hornets opted to play the long game by trading LaMelo Ball this summer after their best season in a decade. Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Coby White and Ryan Kalkbrenner represent a nice core, though it’s unclear whether Charlotte has found a player able to be the leading option on a title team.
Whether Knueppel or Miller really pops or the front office needs to keep looking, the Hornets will need a few years of steady progression before they truly enter the title mix.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last championship: Never
The Grizzlies kick-started the post-Ja Morant era by drafting Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick in June. Boozer’s polish, maturity and complete game make him an ideal centerpiece. He fits with virtually any style of co-star and oscillates well between scoring and keeping his teammates involved.
With that said, Memphis will need multiple seasons to rebuild after Morant’s off-court transgressions and injuries submarined a promising young core before it reached its potential.
Chicago Bulls
Last championship: 1998
The Bulls have spent nearly 30 years since Michael Jordan’s second retirement searching for someone capable of leading a title team. During that time, Derrick Rose might have been the only player who entered the NBA with more potential than Caleb Wilson.
There’s no pressure on the fourth overall pick to immediately restore Chicago’s credibility: Wilson is joining a languishing franchise that changed its coach and front office after winning 31 games last season. It’s going to take some time.
Washington Wizards
Last championship: 1978
Nothing launches a honeymoon period quite like landing the top overall pick: The Wizards won 17 games last season, committed huge money to Trae Young this summer and haven’t won 50 games since before Ronald Reagan was president.
Does any of that matter now that AJ Dybantsa will begin his career in the nation’s capital supported by a roster that already featured a handful of recent first-round picks? Hopes haven’t been this high in Washington since John Wall was doing the Dougie.
Tier 7: Never say never
Portland Trail Blazers
Last championship: 1977
Why are the Blazers slotted below so many rebuilding teams? Because they appear to be stuck in the middle. Their recent high lottery picks haven’t displayed superstar potential, and they have too many respectable veteran players to easily pivot to another round of drafting and developing.
Unless Deni Avdija makes another massive leap, the Blazers are stuck as a low-ceiling, high-floor outfit. That’s standard operating procedure for a small-market franchise that hasn’t won a game in the conference finals since 2000. A recent ownership change has only clouded the picture.
Phoenix Suns
Last championship: Never
The Suns have been riding the treadmill of mediocrity – or something slightly better – since their incredible run to the 2021 Finals. After Durant’s brief tenure sputtered, Devin Booker became the face of a one-star team with too many holes and not enough remaining draft picks to fill them.
While Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia has shown a willingness to spend what it takes to acquire talent, his ultra-aggressive approach has proven to be a double-edged sword given the long-term costs of his biggest swings. Remarkably, Phoenix doesn’t control any of its first-round picks through 2033. With Booker turning 30 in October, the Suns are running dangerously low on time and assets to get back in the mix.
Brooklyn Nets
Last championship: Never
Appropriately, the Nets are the opposite of the Suns: Brooklyn has endured three dismal seasons since trading Durant to Phoenix, but at least it has stockpiled a huge war chest of future draft picks to provide a measure of hope.
The only problem: The Nets never seem to know what to do with their picks. While Egor Demin could prove to be an exception, the franchise has gone an awfully long time since cultivating a homegrown star. Given its draft struggles and failed experiment building around Durant and Kyrie Irving, it’s fair to wonder whether Brooklyn has the cultural foundation needed to compete at the highest level.
LA Clippers
Last championship: Never
Much like the Nets, the Clippers have spent most of their history stuck in the shadow of their crosstown rivals. While LA flirted with winning a championship multiple times after landing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, something always went wrong. Now, Leonard is the subject of an endless NBA investigation into salary cap circumvention, and the Clippers are left hoping they will be able to trade the All-Star forward to the Raptors.
The Clippers’ search for their next franchise player should begin immediately: Is No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler up to the task? Or, will owner Steve Ballmer bide his time and look to duplicate his bold plays for Leonard and George by pursuing veteran stars via free agency and trade? Either way, the Clippers will need several years to pull themselves together.
Tier 8: Maybe never
New Orleans Pelicans
Last championship: Never
Small-market teams don’t have a prayer of sustaining success unless they’re able to develop and retain their best players. Sadly, the Pelicans are a perfect example of this truism: Chris Paul and Anthony Davis left for greener pastures, and former No. 1 pick Zion Williamson hasn’t really panned out.
The Pelicans’ short-term outlook is troubling: Their major roster pieces don’t fit, their most recent lottery picks have clear flaws and they made virtually no moves this summer after winning only 26 games last season. Let’s put aside the Larry O’Brien talk and ask: How long will it be until New Orleans wins a playoff series? It’s been eight years and counting since the last one.
Sacramento Kings
Last championship: 1951
If the Kings ever win a championship, the city of Sacramento will host the greatest parade in NBA history. For evidence, just look at how the team’s loyal fans rallied around the “Beam Team” in 2023. De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis & Co. were treated as beloved heroes by the purple masses, even though they couldn’t escape the first round of the playoffs.
That type of thirst is only possible from a fanbase that hasn’t seen its team advance since 2004 or reach the Finals since it relocated to Sacramento in 1985. Looking ahead, Kings fans are stuck dealing with an unpredictable ownership group, an unproven coach, a talent-deficient roster and a payroll loaded with bloated contracts.
Worst of all, Sacramento has failed to fully develop or retain countless lottery picks, including Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Marvin Bagley III and DeMarcus Cousins. What’s that famous saying about the perils of expecting different results while doing the same thing over and over again?
By Ben Golliver, via ESPN