By Ben Golliver, 2026-07-31 19:00:00
NBA的“均势”时代在上赛季得以延续，纽约尼克斯成为过去八年来第八支不同的总冠军球队。六月里，整个“大苹果城”洋溢的欢乐场面，理应为全联盟那些长期饱受煎熬的球迷群体点燃希望。
如果纽约能在过去25年大部分时间处于低谷后，赢得自1973年以来的首个总冠军，那么每个人都有理由梦想举起拉里·奥布莱恩杯。下一个会是谁呢？
过去八位总冠军得主在阵容上有些相似之处：每支球队都拥有一位名人堂级别的领袖、足够的球星辅助力量以及相当程度的季后赛经验。在为季后赛蓄力的过程中，这八支球队中有六支拥有联盟前五的进攻火力，七支拥有联盟前十的防守效率。
但过去八个赛季同样证明，通往顶峰的道路不止一条：多伦多猛龙在2019年交易得到科怀·伦纳德后立刻夺冠；丹佛掘金在2022年凭借一个中游水平的防守赢得总冠军；而俄克拉荷马城雷霆则在2025年以一套极其年轻的阵容登顶。
让我们借鉴过去八个赛季的经验，来审视一下自2019年——这个“均势”时代的开端——以来，未能夺冠的22支球队。随着2027年总冠军争夺战逐渐成为焦点，哪些球队最有希望成为过去九年里的第九位不同冠军？哪些球队正作为被低估的竞争者悄然崛起？又有哪些处于重建期的球队将在2030年之前准备好加入冠军争夺的行列？
跳转至相应层级：
冠军准备就绪 | 有力竞争者
追逐集团 | 奇迹有可能发生
2030年前或许可期 | 2032年前或许可期
永不言弃 | 或许永无可能
层级 1: 冠军准备就绪
圣安东尼奥马刺
上次夺冠：2014年
马刺之所以独占第一层级，是因为他们满足了冠军争夺者的所有条件：他们拥有顶级巨星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、多位得力助手以及深厚的板凳深度，此外他们上赛季的进攻和防守效率都位列联盟前三。尽管马刺的年轻在总决赛对阵尼克斯时，于一系列崩盘中被反噬，但2025年的雷霆证明，天赋异禀的年轻球队能够迅速从季后赛的失利中吸取教训。
老话说“差一点只在马蹄铁游戏和手榴弹游戏中算数”，但在NBA季后赛里，这也同样重要。过去八个总冠军中，有七支队伍在最终夺冠前不久，至少都打到过赛区半决赛，更有六支是建立在闯入赛区决赛的基础上。
看着马刺在对阵尼克斯时的末节崩盘确实令人煎熬，但他们能够在总决赛中占据赢球位置，这本身就应被视为他们未来具备在最高水平舞台上竞争能力的证据。回想一下，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博的密尔沃基雄鹿是如何在2019年东部决赛折戟，然后在2021年完成任务的？再想想在波士顿凯尔特人2024年夺冠之前，杰森·塔图姆和杰伦·布朗有多少次功亏一篑？“差一点”确实很重要。
圣安东尼奥在这个休赛期没有遭遇重大人员流失，并且引进了经验丰富的前锋托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)，补强了前场轮换阵容。他们已经万事俱备，有望再次取得60胜的赛季，文班亚马也可能借此赢得他的首个MVP。
马刺面临的最大疑问或许是米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，在他执教的首个完整赛季里，他未能在总决赛中止住球队的颓势。但约翰逊的经验不足不应被视为致命缺陷：过去八支冠军球队中，有七支是由此前未曾夺冠的教练执掌帅印的。
层级 2: 有力竞争者
费城76人
上次夺冠：1983年
面貌一新的76人如今在球队各个层面都拥有了冠军经验，这要归功于新加盟的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、主教练尼克·纳斯 (Nick Nurse) 以及管理层高管鲍勃·迈尔斯和迈克·甘西。这是一个至关重要的发展，因为乔尔·恩比德在费城的岁月，一直受限于他在季后赛中无法保持身体健康。没有一位可靠的超级巨星领袖，就没有充分的理由去认真对待费城。
尽管NBA在过去几年里掀起了青春风暴，76人却反其道而行之，引进了41岁的詹姆斯和29岁的布朗，而不是围绕泰雷塞·马克西和V.J. 埃奇科姆这对更年轻的后场组合彻底重建。随着新球星的加入，76人薪资最高的八名球员的平均年龄已升至27.9岁。这让他们与过去几位冠军得主处于相近的区间：2026年的尼克斯 (28.1岁)、布朗所在的2024年凯尔特人 (28.2岁) 以及詹姆斯所在的2020年湖人 (29.5岁)。纳斯麾下的2019年猛龙队也比联盟平均年龄 (27.3岁) 要大。
费城的夺冠希望取决于他们建立即时化学反应的能力：詹姆斯、恩比德、布朗和马克西都是球权主导型的球星，这四人为了进攻端的良好运转，都将被要求做出牺牲。在防守端，76人必须展现出显著的进步，因为他们上赛季常规赛防守效率仅排第17，而在2026年季后赛的16支球队中排第14。过去八年里，没有一支球队能依靠如此脆弱的防守赢得总冠军。
在第二层级的这些球队中，76人拥有最高的上限，但围绕他们阵容适配性、年龄、健康状况和防守基础的这些疑问，也让他们拥有最低的下限。到明年六月，詹姆斯选择加盟费城的决定，可能会显得无比英明，也可能是一场灾难。
明尼苏达森林狼
上次夺冠：未曾
在上文提到的“差一点也算数”的讨论中，森林狼值得称赞：他们在过去三个赛季平均赢下51.3场比赛，并且在2024年和2025年都打进了西部决赛。尽管安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 仍然只有24岁，但他已经带领球队在季后赛系列赛中击败过湖人、勇士、掘金和菲尼克斯太阳。与此同时，森林狼的防守在过去四个赛季都位列联盟前十。
即便如此，爱德华兹和森林狼队有个坏习惯，那就是在艰难的季后赛系列赛尾声会突然泄气，被对手打得落花流水。明尼苏达最近一次这样的失利——在第二轮对阵马刺——促使他们度过了一个忙碌的休赛期，拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 加盟，而朱利叶斯·兰德尔和纳兹·里德则离开了。在这次变动中，森林狼获得了组织能力，却损失了体型，但这是一种可能有助于解决他们季后赛跌跤问题的博弈。鲍尔无疑是爱德华兹身边搭档过的最具活力的后卫，而随着鲁迪·戈贝尔和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯的回归，明尼苏达的防守应该能保持精英水准。
重担落在了爱德华兹身上，他在季后赛期间一直与膝伤作斗争，在季后赛中接连正面输给卢卡·东契奇、吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和文班亚马后，他需要继续提升自己。他拥有爆炸性的得分能力和身体天赋，能够成为冠军球队中的最佳球员，但在压力被推到极致时，他必须展现出更好的专注度和稳定性。
明尼苏达的比赛计划与波士顿在2024年之前对待塔图姆和布朗的方式类似：不断调整阵容，确保爱德华兹在他二十五六岁的整个时期都能处在带队深度冲刺的位置，然后期待他最终将丰富的季后赛经验转化为一座总冠军奖杯。
底特律活塞
上次夺冠：2004年
刚刚经历了60胜赛季并打入赛区半决赛的活塞，与2025年的雷霆有着相似之处：都是一支年轻而强悍的队伍，拥有顶级的防守和一位入选最佳阵容的进攻发动机。和俄克拉荷马城非常类似，底特律从乐透球队到竞争者的迅速转型，是由对选秀和球员发展的专注所驱动的。事实证明，雷霆是上赛季唯一一支防守比活塞更好的球队。
凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 目前还没有达到谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的水准，但底特律在进攻端最大的问题是缺乏一个能扮演杰伦·威廉姆斯那种二当家角色的人选。活塞的进攻在常规赛排名第九，到了季后赛却骤降了近七分。不幸的是，用约翰·科林斯替换托拜厄斯·哈里斯，实际上可能会让情况变得更糟。
假设活塞解决了杰伦·杜伦的受限制自由球员问题，并在交易截止日前增加了一定程度的组织进攻火力，那么24岁的康宁汉姆就有机会带领坚韧的活塞在季后赛中走得更远。然而，底特律上赛季的健康状况异常出色，如果伤病魔咒来袭，他们强劲的上升势头可能会受阻。
层级 3: 追逐集团
克利夫兰骑士
上次夺冠：2016年
*从数据分析角度看，*肯尼·阿特金森执教的骑士或许有理由在这份榜单上排名更高。毕竟，他们上赛季比76人、森林狼和活塞走得更远，闯入了东部决赛。
但很难摆脱这样一种感觉：克利夫兰是一支“优秀到非常优秀”的球队，却在总冠军争夺战中落后了。骑士上赛季比2024-25赛季少赢了12场比赛，并且他们的防守排名从第八位下滑到了第十五位。
与此同时，赛季中期加入的詹姆斯·哈登帮助骑士在与多伦多猛龙和活塞的七场鏖战中幸存下来，但可以预见的是，当尼克斯在赛区决赛横扫他们时，他已经耗尽燃料。这位36岁的后卫在季后赛期间交出了难看的41%/30%/83%的投篮命中率，并且失误数几乎与助攻数持平。
骑士在今年夏天错过了签下勒布朗·詹姆斯作为改变势头拼图的机会，最终选择了马里奥·赫佐尼亚。再加上达里厄斯·加兰、泰·杰罗姆、迪恩·韦德、卡里斯·勒韦尔、德安德烈·亨特和艾萨克·奥科罗在过去两个休赛期的离开，让人越来越难以相信克利夫兰能够重现2024-25赛季的魔力。
如果多诺万·米切尔、埃文·莫布利和贾莱特·阿伦能够完美融合，或许骑士还能经受住持续不断的人员更迭。遗憾的是，他们并非如此：这套高薪三人组在上赛季季后赛中的净效率值为负数。
休斯顿火箭
上次夺冠：1995年
由火箭季后赛惨败引发的合乎情理的愤怒，已经开始被一个稳健休赛期带来的新希望所取代。火箭在首轮系列赛中被湖人彻底羞辱，但确实有一些明显的情有可原之处：弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 因伤缺席了整个赛季，而凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 因伤错过了六场季后赛中的五场。
上赛季攻防效率都位列前十的火箭，在经历溃败之后深吸了一口气，决定保留核心阵容。两个赛季前为休斯顿出战超过2100分钟的范弗利特将会归队，加入到这支保留了上赛季前六号球员并引进了马库斯·斯马特和波格丹·波格丹诺维奇的火箭阵中。
若想在“关键之城”升起又一面冠军旗帜，在范弗利特回归担任进攻发起者后，火箭必须在进攻端取得巨大进步。上赛季，休斯顿在最后五分钟分差在五分以内的比赛中战绩为22胜23负，而其季后赛的进攻效率比常规赛下降了超过12分。杜兰特将一些球权让给年轻队友或许是明智之举，但阿尔佩伦·申京和阿门·汤普森在关键时刻常常显得不够可靠。
23岁的汤普森是那个X因素：这位运动天赋出众的侧翼球员在第三个赛季得分能力取得进步，但他糟糕的三分投射拖垮了休斯顿的场上空间，极大地限制了他的效率。他能成长为真正的球星并提升火箭的上限吗？
印第安纳步行者
上次夺冠：未曾
在此次评估中，步行者可能是最难定位的球队。一方面，他们是过去八个赛季里，与总冠军最为接近的亚军。别忘了，在2025年总决赛的抢七大战中，印第安纳在半场结束时还领先俄克拉荷马城。那仅仅是13个月前的事。
另一方面，泰雷塞·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 上赛季因跟腱撕裂伤势恢复缺席了比赛，而步行者没有这位场上指挥官后，战绩暴跌至仅19胜。26岁的哈利伯顿上周分享了一段记录他康复进展的鼓舞人心的视频，但现在还不清楚他是否能立刻找回2025年季后赛时的状态。在那次季后赛中，这位两届全明星球员表现如同天外飞仙，上演了一次又一次的逆转，并命中了多个绝杀球。哈利伯顿带领的步行者能否从勇士身上汲取灵感？勇士在2019-20赛季因斯蒂芬·库里受伤而战绩惨淡，随后依靠这位明星后卫的强势复出，赢得了2022年的总冠军。
哈利伯顿回归后的环境将是熟悉的：里克·卡莱尔仍担任主教练，帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆和其他几位步行者主力将继续辅佐哈利伯顿。虽然长期效力的中锋迈尔斯·特纳在去年夏天离队，但步行者通过交易获得伊维察·祖巴茨，可能完成了一次升級。
不幸的是，2027年的东部竞争格局应该会比2025年更加艰难，而且印第安纳的快节奏打法这次不太可能再让对手措手不及。
层级 4: 奇迹有可能发生
迈阿密热火
上次夺冠：2013年
如果热火想在2027年真正冲击总冠军，那么在围绕扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 这对球星组合的建队方面，仍有一些工作要做。具体来说，迈阿密缺少一名高水平的第二持球人和组织者来平衡进攻。即使这位两届MVP在南海岸的首个赛季就掀起波澜，但仅仅增加小蒂姆·哈达威和新秀射手瑞安·康威尔，并不足以弥补为了从雄鹿得到阿德托昆博而造成的轮换阵容损失。
在错过勒布朗·詹姆斯之后，迈阿密可能还需要一年的精雕细琢，才能重建那条失去了头两号得分手——诺曼·鲍威尔和泰勒·希罗——的进攻线。不过，值得记住的是，主教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉曾在2020年和2023年，凭借将不完美阵容潜力最大化的能力，带队闯入了总决赛。阿德托昆博打出MVP级别的赛季、围绕阿德巴约构建的联盟前五防守，以及在交易截止日前注入的人才，这三者相加，能否再次催生一次低调的冲击之旅呢？
亚特兰大老鹰
上次夺冠：1958年
老鹰与热火截然相反：他们缺乏一位久经考验的超级巨星领袖，但几乎在其他所有方面都有储备。悄悄地，亚特兰大已将特雷·杨时代抛在身后，组建起了一套每个位置都充满实力不俗且被低估球员、具备深度的阵容。
这套模式在季后赛中行得通吗？嗯，老鹰是上赛季季后赛中唯一一支曾两次击败尼克斯的球队，但最终还是在首轮出局了。不过，他们与过去八位冠军中的任何一个都大相径庭。在杰伦·约翰逊能够真正领导一次季后赛深度冲刺之前，或者老鹰在这位全明星前锋身边再增添一位顶尖天赋球员之前，我们有理由保持一定程度的怀疑。
奥兰多魔术
上次夺冠：未曾
魔术给人的感觉像是一只被低估的股票：上赛季他们赢了45场比赛，尽管他们的前五号球员在一起只打了19场比赛，随后他们差点在首轮将头号种子活塞拉下马。但被低估了多少呢？如果健康状况改善，奥兰多能赢下50场比赛并赢得自2010年以来的首个季后赛系列赛吗？或者保罗·班凯罗、弗朗茨·瓦格纳和德斯蒙德·贝恩能拥有更大的梦想吗？
魔术寄望于菜鸟教练肖恩·斯威尼能为生涩的进攻增添创造力，并激励这支年轻的队伍打出去年那样排名NBA第二的防守。这个要求很高，但斯威尼在之前担任助理教练期间，曾帮助东契奇的独行侠和文班亚马的马刺，提前于既定时间表打入了总决赛。
层级 5: 2030年前或许可期
达拉斯独行侠
上次夺冠：2011年
独行侠，与前面四个层级之外的其余球队一样，是在为未来而战。在新任主教练达斯蒂·梅适应NBA的过程中，需要保持耐心。但是，由于拥有潜在的超级巨星库珀·弗拉格作为建队基石，达拉斯的重建工作比其他大多数年轻球队进展得更快。
弗拉格在攻防两端的影响力和全能性，应该会让他成为非常容易围绕建队的核心，而独行侠已经开始拆解老化的阵容，以便围绕这位2025年的状元签重新调整他们的时间表。指望弗拉格能像文班亚马提升马刺那样，快速将独行侠打造成一支争冠球队，这要求过高了，但他过去三年间的飞速进步表明，在不远的将来他有成为MVP候选人的潜力。
犹他爵士
上次夺冠：未曾
虽然爵士没有像弗拉格那种级别的独一无二潜力股，但他们通过交易得到小贾伦·杰克逊，并选中了达林·彼得森、埃斯·贝利和基扬特·乔治，已逐渐汇集起联盟中最引人注目的一批年轻人才。
作为2026年的榜眼秀，彼得森或许拥有自安东尼·爱德华兹和凯德·康宁汉姆以来，所有后卫中最高的上限。这对爵士希望能成为常年竞争者，并自约翰·斯托克顿和卡尔·马龙时代以来首次打进总决赛的目标，是个好兆头。还有一个保持乐观的理由：爵士在一笔先签后换中，从湖人得到了中锋沃克·凯斯勒，为此换来了两个不受保护的首轮签和两个首轮互换权。如果东契奇时代在好莱坞未能按计划发展，犹他将有望收获丰厚回报。
层级 6: 2032年前或许可期
夏洛特黄蜂
上次夺冠：未曾
黄蜂在经历十年来最好的一个赛季后，选择在这个夏天交易拉梅洛·鲍尔，着眼长远。康·克努佩尔、布兰登·米勒、科比·怀特和瑞安·卡尔克布伦纳组成了一个不错的年轻核心，但目前尚不清楚夏洛特是否找到了能够在一支冠军球队中担任领袖的球员。
无论克努佩尔或米勒能否真正实现飞跃，还是管理层需要继续寻找，黄蜂都需要几年的稳步发展，才能真正进入总冠军的争夺行列。
孟菲斯灰熊
上次夺冠：未曾
灰熊在六月的选秀大会上以第三顺位选中卡梅伦·布泽尔，以此开启了后贾·莫兰特时代。布泽尔的技术、成熟度和全面的比赛能力使他成为理想的建队核心。他几乎能与任何风格的搭档和谐共处，并且能在自主得分和串联队友之间自如切换。
话虽如此，在莫兰特的场外问题和伤病导致这套充满希望的年轻核心在兑现全部潜力之前就沉没之后，孟菲斯需要多个赛季来进行重建。
芝加哥公牛
上次夺冠：1998年
自迈克尔·乔丹第二次退役以来，公牛花了近30年时间寻找能够领导一支冠军球队的人。在那段时间里，德里克·罗斯可能是唯一一位进入NBA时比凯莱布·威尔逊更具潜力的球员。
这位四号秀肩上并没有必须立刻恢复芝加哥公信力的压力：威尔逊加入的是一支处境艰难、在上赛季仅获31胜后更换了主教练和管理层的球队。这需要一些时间。
华盛顿奇才
上次夺冠：1983年
没有什么比拿到状元签更能开启一段蜜月期了：奇才上赛季只赢了17场比赛，这个夏天又为特雷·杨投入巨资，而且他们自罗纳德·里根担任总统以来，就没有赢得超过50场比赛。
但现在，AJ·迪班萨将在首都开启他的职业生涯，并得到一套已经拥有数位近年首轮秀的阵容支持，这一切还重要吗？自从约翰·沃尔跳“道基舞”的时代以来，华盛顿的希望还从未如此高涨。
层级 7: 永不言弃
波特兰开拓者
上次夺冠：1977年
为什么开拓者的排名会低于这么多重建中的球队？因为他们似乎陷入了不上不下的困境。他们近年来得到的高顺位乐透秀并未展现出超级巨星潜力，而他们又拥有太多实力尚可的老将，难以轻松转向另一轮选秀和培养新人的周期。
除非德尼·阿夫迪亚能再次实现巨大飞跃，否则开拓者将受困于这支上限低、下限高的队伍状态。对于一支自2000年以来从未在赛区决赛中赢过一场比赛的小市场球队来说，这就是标准操作。最近的球队所有权变更，只是让前景更加模糊。
菲尼克斯太阳
上次夺冠：未曾
自从2021年令人难以置信地打入总决赛后，太阳就一直在平庸——或者稍微好一点点的状态——的跑步机上原地踏步。在杜兰特短暂的任期草草结束后，德文·布克成为了一支单核球队的门面，这支球队漏洞太多，而且剩下的选秀权不足以填补这些漏洞。
尽管太阳老板马特·伊什比亚展现了为获取天赋而愿意花钱的意愿，但他极其激进的做派已证明是一把双刃剑，考虑到他几次最大赌注带来的长期代价。令人惊讶的是，菲尼克斯直到2033年都无法掌控自己的任何一个首轮签。随着布克在十月份年满30岁，太阳队能够用来重回争冠行列的时间和资产，已经危险地所剩无几。
布鲁克林篮网
上次夺冠：未曾
恰如其分的是，篮网与太阳的情况恰恰相反：自从将杜兰特交易至菲尼克斯以来，布鲁克林经历了三个惨淡的赛季，但至少它储备了未来选秀权这一巨大的战争宝库，提供了一线希望。
唯一的问题是：篮网似乎总是不知道该拿他们的选秀权怎么办。虽然埃戈尔·德明可能被证明是个例外，但这支球队已经太久没有培养出一位本土球星了。考虑到他们在选秀上的挣扎，以及围绕杜兰特和凯里·欧文建队失败的实验，我们有理由怀疑，布鲁克林是否拥有在最高水平上竞争所需的文化根基。
洛杉矶快船
上次夺冠：未曾
与篮网非常相似，快船队史大部分时间都活在同城死敌的阴影之下。虽然在得到科怀·伦纳德和保罗·乔治后，洛杉矶曾数次接近总冠军，但总是状况百出。如今，伦纳德成了一项没完没了的NBA薪资帽规避调查的对象，而快船只能寄希望于他们能将这位全明星前锋交易到猛龙。
快船寻找下一位核心球员的任务应当立刻开始：五号秀基顿·瓦格勒能担当此任吗？又或者，老板史蒂夫·鲍尔默会静待时机，并尝试复制当年为得到伦纳德和乔治的大胆操作，通过自由市场和交易来追求成名球星？无论如何，快船将需要数年时间来重整旗鼓。
层级 8: 或许永无可能
新奥尔良鹈鹕
上次夺冠：未曾
小市场球队除非能够培养并留住他们最好的球员，否则根本没有持续成功的可能。可悲的是，鹈鹕正是这条真理的完美例证：克里斯·保罗和安东尼·戴维斯都为追求更广阔的天地而离开，前状元秀蔡恩·威廉森也并未真正兑现天赋。
鹈鹕的短期前景令人不安：他们的主要阵容板块互不兼容，他们最近的乐透秀有明显缺陷，而在上赛季仅仅赢下26场比赛之后，他们这个夏天几乎没有做出任何动作。让我们先把拉里·奥布莱恩杯的讨论放到一边，问一个问题：新奥尔良要等多久才能赢得一轮季后赛系列赛？自上一次赢下系列赛以来，已经过去八年了，而且还在继续。
萨克拉门托国王
上次夺冠：1951年
如果国王队有一天能赢得总冠军，萨克拉门托市将举办NBA历史上最盛大的游行。作为证据，只需看看球队忠实的球迷在2023年是如何团结在“光束队”周围的。德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯及其队友们，被身穿紫色球衣的广大球迷视为敬爱的英雄，尽管他们当时连季后赛首轮都没能突破。
这种程度的渴望，只可能来自自2004年以来就没见过主队突破首轮，或者自1985年搬迁至萨克拉门托以来就再未进入过总决赛的球迷群体。展望未来，国王球迷只能无奈面对一个不可预测的老板团队、一位未经证明的教练、一套天赋匮乏的阵容和一份充斥着溢价合同的薪资表。
最糟糕的是，萨克拉门托未能充分培养或留住无数的乐透秀，其中包括福克斯、泰雷塞·哈利伯顿、马文·巴格利三世和德马库斯·考辛斯。那句关于一遍又一遍做同样的事情却期待不同结果的危险的名言，是怎么说的来着？
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Stacking which teams can keep the NBA's parity run going
Stacking which teams can keep the NBA’s parity run going
The NBA’s parity era continued last season when the New York Knicks became the eighth different team to win the championship in the past eight years, and the joyous scenes across the Big Apple in June should spark hope for long-suffering fanbases across the league.
If New York can win its first championship since 1973 after spending most of the past 25 years in the wilderness, everyone can dare to dream of holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Who’s next?
The past eight champions shared some roster similarities: Each had a Hall of Fame-level leader, supporting star power and a meaningful degree of postseason experience. As they built toward the playoffs, six of the eight teams had a top-five offense and seven of the eight had a top-10 defense.
But the past eight seasons also proved there are many ways to reach the summit: The Toronto Raptors won in 2019 immediately after trading for Kawhi Leonard, the Denver Nuggets won in 2022 despite a middling defense, and the Oklahoma City Thunder won in 2025 despite a remarkably young roster.
Let’s apply the lessons from the past eight seasons while examining the 22 teams who haven’t won a championship since 2019 – the beginning of this parity. As the 2027 title chase comes into focus, which teams are best positioned to become the ninth different champion in the past nine years? Which teams are looming as under-the-radar contenders? And which rebuilding franchises will be ready to join the party by 2030?
Jump to a tier:
Championship-ready | Serious contenders
The chase pack | Miracles can happen
Maybe by 2030 | Maybe by 2032
Never say never | Maybe never
Tier 1: Championship-ready
San Antonio Spurs
Last championship: 2014
The Spurs occupy the top tier by themselves because they check every box for a title hopeful: They have an A-list superstar in Victor Wembanyama, multiple co-stars and a deep bench, plus they ranked in the top three in both offense and defense last season. While the Spurs’ youth came back to bite them during a series of collapses in the Finals against the Knicks, the 2025 Thunder proved that exceptional young teams are capable of quickly learning from their postseason shortcomings.
The old saying goes that “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades,” but it matters in the NBA playoffs, too. Seven of the past eight champions had reached at least the conference semifinals shortly before winning it all, and six built off trips to the conference finals.
The Spurs’ fourth-quarter collapses against the Knicks were excruciating to watch, but the fact that they were in position to win Finals games should be viewed as evidence of their ability to compete at the highest level in the future. Remember how Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks blew the 2019 Eastern Conference finals before taking care of business in 2021? Remember how many times Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown came up just short before the Boston Celtics’ 2024 title? Close counts.
San Antonio has suffered no major defections this offseason, and it added veteran forward Tobias Harris to an improved frontcourt rotation. The pieces are in place for another 60-win campaign, which could see Wembanyama win his first MVP.
Perhaps the biggest question facing the Spurs is Mitch Johnson, who couldn’t stop the bleeding in the Finals during his first full season as coach. Johnson’s inexperience shouldn’t be viewed as a dealbreaker: Seven of the past eight title teams were led by coaches who hadn’t previously won a championship.
Tier 2: Serious contenders
Philadelphia 76ers
Last championship: 1983
The new-look 76ers now boast championship experience at every level thanks to newcomers LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, coach Nick Nurse and front office executives Bob Myers and Mike Gansey. That’s a crucial development, because Joel Embiid’s time in Philadelphia has been defined by his inability to hold up physically in the playoffs. Without a reliable superstar leader, there was no good reason to take Philadelphia seriously.
While the NBA has undergone a youth movement in the past few years, the 76ers cut against the grain by adding the 41-year-old James and the 29-year-old Brown rather than fully resetting their clock around the younger backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and V.J. Edgecombe. With their new stars in place, the average age of the 76ers’ eight highest earners is up to 27.9. That puts them in the same ballpark as several past champions: The 2026 Knicks (28.1), Brown’s 2024 Celtics (28.2), and James’ 2020 Lakers (29.5). Nurse’s 2019 Raptors were also older than league average (27.3).
Philadelphia’s title hopes hinge on its ability to build instant chemistry: James, Embiid, Brown and Maxey are ball-dominant stars, and all four will be asked to sacrifice for the good of the offense. On the other end, the 76ers must show significant improvement after ranking 17th in defensive efficiency during the regular season and 14th out of the 16 teams in the 2026 playoffs. No team has won a title over the past eight years with such a shaky defense.
The 76ers have the highest ceiling among the teams in this second tier, but the questions about their fit, age, health and defensive baseline give them the lowest floor as well. By next June, James’ decision to pick Philadelphia could look brilliant or disastrous.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last championship: Never
The Timberwolves deserve their kudos in the “close counts” conversation mentioned above: They have averaged 51.3 wins over the past three seasons, and they reached the Western Conference finals in 2024 and 2025. Even though Anthony Edwards is still only 24 years old, he has helped lead playoff series wins over the Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves’ defense has ranked in the top 10 in each of the past four seasons.
Even so, Edwards and the Timberwolves have a nasty habit of letting go of the rope and getting run off the court at the end of difficult playoff series. Minnesota’s latest such loss – in the second round against the Spurs – prompted a busy offseason in which LaMelo Ball arrived, and Julius Randle and Naz Reid departed. The Timberwolves are gaining playmaking and losing size in the exchange, but it’s a gambit that could help address their playoff stumbles. Ball is easily the most dynamic guard to line up alongside Edwards, and Minnesota’s defense should remain elite with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels returning.
The onus is on Edwards, who battled a knee injury during the postseason, to continue elevating after head-to-head playoff losses against Luka Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama. He possesses the explosive scoring ability and physical tools to be the best player on a championship team, but he must display better focus and consistency when the pressure is cranked all the way up.
Minnesota’s game plan is comparable to Boston’s approach with Tatum and Brown before 2024: Keep shuffling the deck so that Edwards is always in position to make deep runs throughout his mid-20s, then hope he eventually translates his vast postseason experience into a championship.
Detroit Pistons
Last championship: 2004
Fresh off a 60-win campaign and a trip to the conference semifinals, the Pistons share similarities with the 2025 Thunder as a young and forceful group with a top-flight defense and an All-NBA offensive engine. Much like Oklahoma City, Detroit’s swift transformation from lottery team to contender has been driven by a focus on draft and development. As it turns out, the Thunder were the only team to have a better defense than the Pistons last season.
Cade Cunningham isn’t quite on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s level yet, but Detroit’s biggest issue on offense is that it lacks someone in the Jalen Williams co-star role. After the Pistons’ offense ranked ninth during the regular season, it dropped nearly seven points in the playoffs. Unfortunately, replacing Tobias Harris with John Collins could actually make things worse.
Assuming the Pistons resolve Jalen Duren’s restricted free agency and add some level of playmaking firepower before the trade deadline, there’s a path for the 24-year-old Cunningham to carry the gritty Pistons to a deep postseason run. However, Detroit enjoyed exceptional health last season, and its extreme upward momentum could be stunted if the injury bug hits.
Tier 3: The chase pack
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last championship: 2016
Analytically, Kenny Atkinson’s Cavaliers might have a case to be higher on this list. After all, they advanced further last season than the 76ers, Timberwolves and Pistons by virtue of reaching the Eastern Conference finals.
But it’s hard to shake the feeling that Cleveland is a “good to very good” team that has lost ground in the title race. The Cavaliers won 12 fewer games last season than they did in 2024-25, and their defense slipped from eighth to 15th.
Meanwhile, midseason addition James Harden helped Cleveland survive seven-game marathons against the Toronto Raptors and Pistons, but he predictably ran out of gas when the Knicks swept them in the conference finals. The 36-year-old guard finished with unsightly 41/30/83 shooting splits during the playoffs and nearly registered as many turnovers as assists.
The Cavaliers missed their shot to land LeBron James as a momentum-changing piece this summer and settled for Mario Hezonja. Throw in the departures of Darius Garland, Ty Jerome, Dean Wade, Caris LeVert, De’Andre Hunter and Isaac Okoro over the past two offseasons, and it’s increasingly difficult to believe that Cleveland will be able to rekindle the magic of its 2024-25 season.
If Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen fit together perfectly, perhaps the Cavaliers would be able to survive the constant roster churn. Sadly, they don’t: The high-priced trio had a negative net rating in last year’s playoffs.
Houston Rockets
Last championship: 1995
The justified outrage prompted by Houston’s playoff debacle has started to give way to renewed hope during a solid offseason. The Rockets were utterly embarrassed by the Lakers in a first-round series loss, but there were some obvious extenuating circumstances: Fred VanVleet missed the entire season and Kevin Durant missed five of the six playoff games due to injuries.
The Rockets, who ranked in the top 10 on both offense and defense last season, took a deep breath after their flame-out and kept the band together. VanVleet, who logged more than 2,100 minutes for Houston two seasons ago, will rejoin a Houston team that retained its top six players from last season and added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
To bring another banner to Clutch City, the Rockets must make major strides on offense with VanVleet back as an initiator. Houston posted a 22-23 record in games that were within five points in the final five minutes last season, and its offensive efficiency dropped more than 12 points from the regular season to the playoffs. It would probably be wise for Durant to cede some authority to his younger teammates, but Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson often looked unreliable in key moments.
Thompson, 23, looms as the X factor: The athletically gifted wing made strides as a scorer in his third season, but his poor 3-point shooting deflated Houston’s spacing and dramatically limited his effectiveness. Can he blossom into a true star and raise Houston’s ceiling?
Indiana Pacers
Last championship: Never
The Pacers might be the trickiest team to peg in this exercise. On one hand, they came closer to winning the championship than any other runner-up during the past eight seasons. Remember, Indiana was leading Oklahoma City at halftime of Game 7 in the 2025 Finals. That was only 13 months ago.
On the other hand, Tyrese Haliburton missed last season recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, and the Pacers sputtered to just 19 wins without their floor general. Haliburton, 26, shared a promising video documenting his recovery progress last week, but it’s unclear whether he will be able to immediately recapture his form from the 2025 playoffs. The two-time All-Star spent those playoffs on another planet, pulling off comeback after comeback and hitting multiple game winners. Could Haliburton’s Pacers draw inspiration from the Warriors, who cratered during the 2019-20 season due to a Stephen Curry injury before riding the star guard’s comeback to the 2022 title?
Haliburton will return to familiar surroundings: Rick Carlisle is still in place as coach, and Pascal Siakam and several other Pacers mainstays will continue to flank Haliburton. While longtime center Myles Turner departed last summer, the Pacers landed a possible upgrade by trading for Ivica Zubac.
Unfortunately, the Eastern Conference landscape should be tougher in 2027 than it was in 2025, and Indiana’s up-tempo style is less likely to catch teams flat-footed this time around.
Tier 4: Miracles can happen
Miami Heat
Last championship: 2013
The Heat still have some work to do building around the star tandem of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo if they want to seriously contend for the 2027 title. Namely, Miami lacks a high-level secondary ball handler and playmaker to balance its offense. Adding Tim Hardaway Jr. and rookie shooter Ryan Conwell isn’t enough to offset the rotation losses that were required to land Antetokounmpo from the Bucks, even if the two-time MVP makes a splash in his first season in South Beach.
After missing out on LeBron James, Miami could need another year of fine-tuning to reconstruct an offense that lost its top two scorers in Norman Powell and Tyler Herro. It’s worth remembering, though, that coach Erik Spoelstra guided Finals runs in 2020 and 2023 by getting the most out of imperfect rosters. Could an MVP-caliber season from Antetokounmpo, a top-five defense built around Adebayo and an injection of talent before the trade deadline produce another under-the-radar run?
Atlanta Hawks
Last championship: 1958
The Hawks are the anti-Heat: They lack a proven superstar leader but have almost every other base covered. Quietly, Atlanta has put the Trae Young era in the past and assembled a roster stocked with good and underrated players with depth at every position.
Does that formula work in the playoffs? Well, the Hawks were the only team to beat the Knicks twice in last year’s postseason before their eventual first-round demise, but they don’t bear much resemblance to any of the past eight champions. Until Jalen Johnson leads a real playoff run or the Hawks add another premier talent next to the All-Star forward, a healthy degree of skepticism is warranted.
Orlando Magic
Last championship: Never
The Magic feel like an undervalued stock: They won 45 games last season even though their top five players played in only 19 games together, then nearly upset the top-seeded Pistons in the first round. But how undervalued? With better health, can Orlando win 50 games and its first playoff series since 2010? Or can Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane dream bigger?
The Magic are banking on first-time coach Sean Sweeney to add creativity to a choppy offense and inspire a young group to play defense as it did in 2024-25, when it ranked second in the NBA. That’s asking a lot, but Sweeney helped Doncic’s Mavericks and Wembanyama’s Spurs reach the Finals ahead of schedule during past stints as an assistant.
Tier 5: Maybe by 2030
Dallas Mavericks
Last championship: 2011
The Mavericks, like the rest of the teams outside the top four tiers, are playing for the future. Patience is in order as new coach Dusty May gets acclimated to the NBA, but Dallas is further along in its rebuilding effort than most other young teams because it has potential superstar Cooper Flagg as its centerpiece.
Flagg’s two-way impact and versatility should make him extremely easy to build around, and the Mavericks have already started tearing down an old roster to recalibrate their timetable around the 2025 No. 1 pick. It’s asking too much to expect Flagg to transform the Mavericks into a contender as quickly as Wembanyama lifted the Spurs, but his rapid improvement over the past three years suggests he has MVP candidate potential in the not-too-distant future.
Utah Jazz
Last championship: Never
While the Jazz don’t have a singular prospect on Flagg’s level, they have gradually assembled one of the league’s most intriguing collections of young talent by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. and drafting Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey and Keyonte George.
Peterson, the second overall pick in 2026, has arguably the highest ceiling of any guard drafted since Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham. That bodes well for Utah’s hopes of becoming a perennial contender and reaching its first Finals since the John Stockton and Karl Malone days. Here’s another reason for optimism: The Jazz landed two unprotected first-round picks and two first-round swaps from the Lakers in a summer sign-and-trade for center Walker Kessler. If the Doncic era doesn’t go as planned in Hollywood, Utah is poised to reap major rewards.
Tier 6: Maybe by 2032
Charlotte Hornets
Last championship: Never
The Hornets opted to play the long game by trading LaMelo Ball this summer after their best season in a decade. Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Coby White and Ryan Kalkbrenner represent a nice core, though it’s unclear whether Charlotte has found a player able to be the leading option on a title team.
Whether Knueppel or Miller really pops or the front office needs to keep looking, the Hornets will need a few years of steady progression before they truly enter the title mix.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last championship: Never
The Grizzlies kick-started the post-Ja Morant era by drafting Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick in June. Boozer’s polish, maturity and complete game make him an ideal centerpiece. He fits with virtually any style of co-star and oscillates well between scoring and keeping his teammates involved.
With that said, Memphis will need multiple seasons to rebuild after Morant’s off-court transgressions and injuries submarined a promising young core before it reached its potential.
Chicago Bulls
Last championship: 1998
The Bulls have spent nearly 30 years since Michael Jordan’s second retirement searching for someone capable of leading a title team. During that time, Derrick Rose might have been the only player who entered the NBA with more potential than Caleb Wilson.
There’s no pressure on the fourth overall pick to immediately restore Chicago’s credibility: Wilson is joining a languishing franchise that changed its coach and front office after winning 31 games last season. It’s going to take some time.
Washington Wizards
Last championship: 1983
Nothing launches a honeymoon period quite like landing the top overall pick: The Wizards won 17 games last season, committed huge money to Trae Young this summer and haven’t won 50 games since before Ronald Reagan was president.
Does any of that matter now that AJ Dybantsa will begin his career in the nation’s capital supported by a roster that already featured a handful of recent first-round picks? Hopes haven’t been this high in Washington since John Wall was doing the Dougie.
Tier 7: Never say never
Portland Trail Blazers
Last championship: 1977
Why are the Blazers slotted below so many rebuilding teams? Because they appear to be stuck in the middle. Their recent high lottery picks haven’t displayed superstar potential, and they have too many respectable veteran players to easily pivot to another round of drafting and developing.
Unless Deni Avdija makes another massive leap, the Blazers are stuck as a low-ceiling, high-floor outfit. That’s standard operating procedure for a small-market franchise that hasn’t won a game in the conference finals since 2000. A recent ownership change has only clouded the picture.
Phoenix Suns
Last championship: Never
The Suns have been riding the treadmill of mediocrity – or something slightly better – since their incredible run to the 2021 Finals. After Durant’s brief tenure sputtered, Devin Booker became the face of a one-star team with too many holes and not enough remaining draft picks to fill them.
While Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia has shown a willingness to spend what it takes to acquire talent, his ultra-aggressive approach has proven to be a double-edged sword given the long-term costs of his biggest swings. Remarkably, Phoenix doesn’t control any of its first-round picks through 2033. With Booker turning 30 in October, the Suns are running dangerously low on time and assets to get back in the mix.
Brooklyn Nets
Last championship: Never
Appropriately, the Nets are the opposite of the Suns: Brooklyn has endured three dismal seasons since trading Durant to Phoenix, but at least it has stockpiled a huge war chest of future draft picks to provide a measure of hope.
The only problem: The Nets never seem to know what to do with their picks. While Egor Demin could prove to be an exception, the franchise has gone an awfully long time since cultivating a homegrown star. Given its draft struggles and failed experiment building around Durant and Kyrie Irving, it’s fair to wonder whether Brooklyn has the cultural foundation needed to compete at the highest level.
LA Clippers
Last championship: Never
Much like the Nets, the Clippers have spent most of their history stuck in the shadow of their crosstown rivals. While LA flirted with winning a championship multiple times after landing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, something always went wrong. Now, Leonard is the subject of an endless NBA investigation into salary cap circumvention, and the Clippers are left hoping they will be able to trade the All-Star forward to the Raptors.
The Clippers’ search for their next franchise player should begin immediately: Is No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler up to the task? Or, will owner Steve Ballmer bide his time and look to duplicate his bold plays for Leonard and George by pursuing veteran stars via free agency and trade? Either way, the Clippers will need several years to pull themselves together.
Tier 8: Maybe never
New Orleans Pelicans
Last championship: Never
Small-market teams don’t have a prayer of sustaining success unless they’re able to develop and retain their best players. Sadly, the Pelicans are a perfect example of this truism: Chris Paul and Anthony Davis left for greener pastures, and former No. 1 pick Zion Williamson hasn’t really panned out.
The Pelicans’ short-term outlook is troubling: Their major roster pieces don’t fit, their most recent lottery picks have clear flaws and they made virtually no moves this summer after winning only 26 games last season. Let’s put aside the Larry O’Brien talk and ask: How long will it be until New Orleans wins a playoff series? It’s been eight years and counting since the last one.
Sacramento Kings
Last championship: 1951
If the Kings ever win a championship, the city of Sacramento will host the greatest parade in NBA history. For evidence, just look at how the team’s loyal fans rallied around the “Beam Team” in 2023. De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis & Co. were treated as beloved heroes by the purple masses, even though they couldn’t escape the first round of the playoffs.
That type of thirst is only possible from a fanbase that hasn’t seen its team advance since 2004 or reach the Finals since it relocated to Sacramento in 1985. Looking ahead, Kings fans are stuck dealing with an unpredictable ownership group, an unproven coach, a talent-deficient roster and a payroll loaded with bloated contracts.
Worst of all, Sacramento has failed to fully develop or retain countless lottery picks, including Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Marvin Bagley III and DeMarcus Cousins. What’s that famous saying about the perils of expecting different results while doing the same thing over and over again?
By Ben Golliver, via ESPN