By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-17 13:00:00
NBA季后赛终于拉开了帷幕，这意味着一件事：是时候由我本人来把各支球队划分到不同的档位中了。
首先，我们需要重申一点。历史证明，在任何年份，只有少数几支球队拥有真正的夺冠机会，因为夺冠球队通常需要一名足以跻身历史前35左右的伟大球员，以及一名全明星（All-NBA）级别的副手。今年，只有三支球队达到了这些门槛：俄克拉荷马城雷霆、圣安东尼奥马刺和丹佛掘金。
然而，由于这些巨头球队都身处西部，我们还需要考虑每支球队的夺冠路径。这就是为什么东部最佳的波士顿凯尔特人被列入争冠第一梯队，而明尼苏达森林狼则与一些实力稍逊的球队被归为一类。
像往常一样，让我们从最顶端开始。
头号热门：雷霆
无论如何，俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 都会是夺冠大热，剩下的唯一悬念就是他们需要击败谁才能实现卫冕。在常规赛收官战马刺负于掘金后，雷霆正式获得了一条通往分区决赛的“坦途”——他们只需要面对一支实力较弱的附加赛球队，以及深陷“小号门”的休斯敦火箭或是一支由带伤作战的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 率领的洛杉矶湖人。
考虑到他们可以直接晋级半决赛，我认为冠军归属基本上是雷霆与其余所有球队之间的博弈。雷霆依然是联盟中阵容深度最厚的球队，同时也拥有可以说是当今最强的球员。他们在赛季三分之二的时间里优先考虑健康的情况下，依然打出了64胜18负的战绩。所有底层数据都表明雷霆是一支历史级别的强队，凭借惊人的107.3防守效率（DRTG），他们的净效率（Net Rating）达到了+11.9。如果他们把常规赛战绩放在首位，甚至可能冲击70胜。雷霆潜在的弱点是缺乏第二进攻点，因为杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 全年饱受伤病困扰，表现未能达到去年季后赛的水准。如果杰伦能恢复到平时90%的水平，我赌雷霆夺冠；但如果做不到，那么冠军争夺战可能会比预期更加开放。
真正的争冠者：马刺、掘金、凯尔特人
如果维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 率领的圣安东尼奥马刺 (San Antonio Spurs) 上周能战胜丹佛掘金，他们本可以拥有和雷霆一样轻松的晋级之路。然而现在，他们面临着严峻的考验：掘金与他们同处一个半区，即便他们能杀出重围，雷霆也在第三轮严阵以待。如果马刺之前击败了掘金的C队，我曾认真考虑过预测他们夺冠。虽然他们现在的天赋依然足以登顶，但更现实的情况是在输给掘金或雷霆的系列赛中打出竞争力，然后以头号热门的姿态进入明年——就像2024年的雷霆一样。
与此同时，丹佛掘金 (Denver Nuggets) 是我赛季初预测的冠军，他们的上限依然足以支撑这一目标。掘金122.5的进攻效率（ORTG）是史上最佳，当尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 同时在场时，这一数字甚至超过了130。然而，他们117.5的防守效率仅排在联盟第21位，且佩顿·沃森 (Peyton Watson) 仍在从腓骨拉伤中恢复。掘金重返总决赛的秘诀在于找回赛季初的状态，尤其是防守端。在赛季的前20场比赛中，掘金曾是防守前五的球队，虽然这在很大程度上归功于对手的手感不佳，但他们的赛场表现确实无可挑剔。如果他们能回到那个水平并保持阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 的健康，掘金与雷霆旗鼓相当，但他们必须先击败文班亚马和马刺，才能挑战卫冕冠军。
波士顿凯尔特人 (Boston Celtics) 虽然实力不及上述几支球队，但他们的晋级之路要容易得多。“双探花”中没有人的水准能达到谢伊、文班亚马或约基奇的高度，但凯尔特人的冠军基因和教练团队意味着他们有机会击败任何对手——尤其是如果西部的代表球队在经历重重血战后已经筋疲力竭。
决赛竞争者：尼克、活塞
尽管凯尔特人被列在更高的一档，但我不会在东部群雄中只押注他们。纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks) 和底特律活塞 (Detroit Pistons) 都有进入总决赛的天赋，唯一的区别是这两支球队似乎都无法击败西部的任何一支超级强队。尽管如此，纽约和底特律是仅有的六支进攻和防守均排名联盟前十的球队之一，这要归功于他们各自的内线核心。
卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 在赛季最后三分之一的时间里大幅提升了防守，如果他能保持现在的状态，就不应被视为防守漏洞。在进攻端，当凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺部塌陷缺阵时，杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 场均能砍下23分10篮板，这为活塞提供了一个足以杀出东部的潜在第二得分点。
我依然预计凯尔特人会进入总决赛，但尼克斯和活塞都能让局势变得非常有趣。
伪强队：骑士
如果你还相信克利夫兰骑士 (Cleveland Cavaliers)，我真的无话可说。他们已经变成了“东部快船”，不可避免地会像往常一样折戟沉沙。
自詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 的交易以来，克利夫兰拥有联盟第四好的进攻（121.4），但净效率仅排在第13位（+4.5），防守效率排在第18位（116.9）。他们在赛程极其轻松的情况下打出了21胜9负，却因为防守问题难以大胜那些摆烂球队。如果骑士在首轮没被多伦多猛龙爆冷，他们也会在第二轮被活塞靠强硬表现击败。看看他们2023年对阵尼克斯的系列赛是怎么打的就知道了。
我真心祝愿骑士球迷好运，但当多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 遭遇伤病、球队篮板净负100个、以及哈登在又一场生死战中投出11中2时，请不要感到惊讶。
爆冷潜力：森林狼、老鹰、猛龙、黄蜂*
作为连续两届西部决赛的参与者，明尼苏达森林狼 (Minnesota Timberwolves) 理应有更好的命运。不幸的是，他们的晋级之路包括首轮对阵掘金，以及次轮和第三轮可能面对的马刺和雷霆。此外，自二月以来，这支球队的净效率一直是负数，安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 才刚刚伤愈复出。如果他们能把掘金逼入抢七我都会感到震惊，更别说赢下系列赛了。
亚特兰大老鹰 (Atlanta Hawks) 在近两个月里一直是联盟最强的五支球队之一，他们将给尼克斯带来巨大的挑战。诚然，他们在连胜期间的赛程很轻松，但老鹰一直统治到了赛季结束，以16胜5负的战绩收官，期间+12的净效率高居联盟第三。
与此同时，夏洛特黄蜂 (Charlotte Hornets) 仍需击败缺少核心的奥兰多魔术。假设他们做到了，他们也有真正的机会爆冷击败活塞。这支夏洛特球队其实是一支隐藏的50胜级别球队，自元旦以来，他们的战绩（33胜16负）位列联盟前五，+11.2的净效率排名联盟第二——比活塞还要高出3分。
最后，多伦多猛龙 (Toronto Raptors) 出现在这里，既说明了骑士的问题，也说明了猛龙的实力。自哈登交易以来，猛龙的净效率（+6.0）优于克利夫兰，且期间攻防均排名联盟前十。即便他们击败了骑士，我预计他们在第二轮对阵活塞或黄蜂时也不会有太大的竞争力。
雷霆的“炮灰”：湖人、火箭
这还需要详细说明吗？在东契奇缺阵的情况下，湖人面对休斯敦几乎没有胜算；而火箭则是人人都想碰的球队，因为他们的进攻极其乏力，而且凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 与球队之间惊人的化学反应问题也令人咋舌。此外，胜者将面对休整充分的雷霆，后者很可能会横扫首轮对手，谢伊甚至可能每场第四节都坐在场下休息。
不过，总还有明年！我听说某位 Kalshi 大使可能会进入市场。
参与奖：76人、开拓者、勇士/太阳*、魔术*
这真的是“悲伤之环”，这些球队都没有机会赢下任何一轮系列赛。尽管如此，其中许多球队仍因其娱乐价值值得一看。我很想最后一次在季后赛看到斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 的魔法（抱歉了，菲尼克斯），而波特兰开拓者可能会凭借身体对抗和体型优势给文班和马刺制造一些麻烦。
在东部，费城对阵波士顿是经典的宿敌对决，而且乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 尚未被排除出系列赛。至于奥兰多，唉，他们的赛季能不能赶紧结束？反正黄蜂是一支更有观赏性的球队。
总决赛预测：雷霆 4-2 凯尔特人
有趣的是，我上赛季也预测了这组对决，结果只对了一半。由于东部存在变数，我今年没那么有信心了，这很大程度上取决于杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 能承担多大的负荷。在16场比赛中，塔图姆场均得到21.8分、10个篮板和5.3次助攻，投篮命中率为41%/33%/82%，看起来恢复到了平时85%的水准。更重要的是，塔图姆在四月的五场比赛中将出场时间增加到了36.2分钟，且每场得分都超过了20分。他是否能再次防守对方的内线球员仍有待观察，但无论如何，凯尔特人拥有东部最顶尖的强韧度、季后赛底蕴和对位多样性。
雷霆的夺冠路径已经铺平。如果他们在前两轮丢掉超过两场比赛，那将令人震惊。他们可能会遇到一支在经历七场大战后精疲力竭的马刺或掘金。话虽如此，圣安东尼奥对阵雷霆有着独特的对位优势，而如果丹佛能过关，那将预示着他们找回了赛季初的状态。雷霆将面临挑战并被推向极限，但我依然相信他们有能力成为自勇士王朝以来第一支实现卫冕的球队。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA Playoffs Preview: Contenders, pretenders, and a title pick
2026 NBA Playoffs Preview: Contenders, pretenders, and a title pick
The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and that means one thing: it’s time to place every team in arbitrary tiers made by yours truly.
First, we need to reiterate one thing. In any given year, only a handful of teams have legitimate shots at the title, as history’s shown that teams need a player good enough to go down as a top-35(ish) all-time great, along with an All-NBA level sidekick. This year, only three squads meet those thresholds: the Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets.
However, since all of those juggernauts play in the West, we also need to factor in the path to the title for every team. That’s why the East’s best, Boston, are lumped in as a title contender, while the Wolves are in a tier with some lesser teams.
As usual, let’s start at the top.
The favorite: Thunder
OKC was going to be the favorite no matter what, and the only question that remained was who they needed to beat to repeat as champs. Well, after the Spurs’ loss to Denver in the final regular season game, the Thunder officially have a Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals, as they’ll only need to go through a poor play-in team and either the Burnergate Rockets or a hobbled Luka-led Lakers.
Given their bye to the semis, I think the title is essentially a coin toss between the Thunder and the entire field. OKC remains the deepest team in the league with arguably the best player too, and they went 64-18 while prioritizing health for 2/3 of the season. All the underlying metrics point to the Thunder being a historically great team, with a +11.9 net rating on the back of a ludicrous 107.3 DRTG, and they could’ve flirted with 70 wins if the regular season was a priority. OKC’s potential flaw is the lack of a second offensive option, as JDub has been injured all year and has not played at the level he did last postseason. I’d bet on the Thunder winning if JDub is at 90% of his usual level, but if that can’t happen, then the title race could be more open than expected.
Legitimate title contenders: Spurs, Nuggets, Celtics
The Spurs could’ve had the same Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals that the Thunder do had they taken care of business against Denver last week. Instead, they’re now facing a potential gauntlet with the Nuggets on their side of the bracket and OKC waiting in the third round, if they even make it that far. I was seriously contemplating picking San Antonio to win it all had they beaten Denver’s C-team, and they’re still talented enough to do it, but a more realistic scenario is a competitive loss to the Nuggets or Thunder before heading into next year as one of the favorites — similar to OKC in 2024.
Denver, meanwhile, was my preseason title pick, and their ceiling remains high enough for that to happen. The Nuggets’ 122.5 ORTG is the best ever, and that number exceeds 130 when both Jokic and Murray play. However, their 117.5 DRTG is also 21st in the league, and Peyton Watson is still recovering from a calf strain. Denver’s recipe to the finals is rediscovering their early-season form, especially on defense. The Nuggets were a top 5 defensive team for roughly the first 20 games of the year, and while a lot of that was due to shooting luck, they passed the eye test with flying colors. If they can get back to that level and keep Aaron Gordon healthy, Denver is on par with OKC, but they’ll also need to beat the Spurs first to reach the defending champs.
Boston, meanwhile, isn’t in the same realm as the other teams, but they have a much easier path to the finals. Neither of the Jays are on the level of a Shai, Wemby, or Jokic, and yet, the Celtics’ championship DNA and coaching means that they’ve got a shot at beating any of those teams — especially if the West’s representative is beat up from the wars they’ll wage.
Finals contenders: Knicks, Pistons
Even though Boston is listed in a tier above, I wouldn’t pick them over the entire East field. Both the Knicks and Pistons have the talent to make it to the finals, with the only difference being that neither team seem capable of beating any of the West’s juggernauts. Still, New York and Detroit are two of just six teams with both a top-10 offense and defense, and credit should be given to their respective bigs.
KAT has improved his defense drastically in the last third of the season and shouldn’t be considered a liability if he keeps up his current play. On the other end, Jalen Duren averaged 23/10 when Cade was out with his collapsed lung, giving the Pistons a potential second scoring option good enough to get through the East.
I still expect Boston to get to the finals, but both the Knicks and Pistons can make things very interesting.
The fraud: Cavaliers
If you still believe in the Cavs, I really don’t know what to say. They’ve turned into Clippers East and will inevitably flame out as usual.
Since the Harden trade, Cleveland has the fourth-best offense (121.4) but the 13th-ranked net rating (+4.5) and 18th-ranked defense (116.9). They went 21-9 with an extremely easy schedule and had trouble blowing out tankers due to their defense. If the Cavs don’t get upset by Toronto in the first round, then they’ll be out-toughed by the Pistons in the second. Just look at how their 2023 series against the Knicks went.
I truly wish Cavs fans the best of luck, but don’t be surprised when Mitchell gets banged up, the team gets outrebounded by 100, and Harden goes 2/11 in another elimination game.
Upset potential: Timberwolves, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets*
As back-to-back Western Finalists, the Wolves deserve a better fate than this. Unfortunately, their path to the finals includes facing the Nuggets in round 1, and potentially the Spurs and Thunder in rounds 2 and 3. Moreover, this is a team that has a negative net rating since February, and Ant and McDaniels are just returning from injury. I would be shocked if they took Denver to a game 7, let alone win.
Atlanta has been one of the five best teams for almost two months now, and they will be a difficult test for the Knicks. Yes, they had a cupcake schedule during their winning streak, but the Hawks continued dominating until the end of the season, finishing the year 16-5 with a +12 net rating, good for third in the league during that span.
The Hornets, meanwhile, still need to beat the “PB no J” Magic, and assuming they do, have a real shot at upsetting Detroit too. This Charlotte team is a 50-win team hiding in plain sight, as they have one of the five best records in the league since the new year (33-16) with the second-best net rating at +11.2 — three points better than Detroit.
Lastly, Toronto’s placement here says as much about the Cavs as it does the Raptors, but they also had a better net rating (+6.0) than Cleveland since the Harden trade, while placing top 10 in both offense and defense during that span. Even if they beat the Cavs, I expect a relatively uncompetitive series against Detroit/Charlotte in round 2.
Thunder fodder: Lakers, Rockets
Do we even need to elaborate? The Lakers virtually have no shot against Houston with Luka still sidelined, and Houston was the team everyone wanted to play due to their anemic offense and shocking chemistry issues with getoffmy KD. Moreover, the winner will face a rested OKC team that’ll likely sweep their first-round matchup with Shai sitting every fourth quarter.
There’s always next year, though! I heard a certain Kalshi ambassador might be available.
Participation medal: Sixers, Blazers, Warriors/Suns*, Magic*
Truly the circle of sadness, none of these teams have a shot at winning any first-round series. Still, many of them will be worth watching for the entertainment value. I’d love to see some Steph magic (sorry Phoenix) for perhaps the final time in the playoffs, and Portland could give the Spurs some trouble with their physicality and size against Wemby.
In the East, Philly vs Boston is a classic rivalry, and Embiid hasn’t been ruled out of the series yet. As for Orlando, well, can their season just end already? The Hornets are a much more entertaining team, anyway.
Finals prediction: Thunder over Celtics in 6
Interestingly, I chose this matchup last season too, and only half of that came true. I’m not as confident this year due to the wildcards in the East, and it hinges heavily on how large a load Tatum can handle. In 16 games, The Plagiarizer averaged 21.8/10/5.3 on 41/33/82 splits, looking like 85% of his usual self. More importantly, Tatum ramped his minutes up to 36.2 over five games in April, scoring over 20 points in every contest. It remains to be seen if he’s able to guard opposing bigs again, but regardless, the Celtics have the best combination of toughness, playoff pedigree, and matchup versatility in the East.
OKC’s path has already been laid out. It’ll be shocking if they dropped more than two games in the opening two rounds, and could meet an extremely banged-up Spurs/Nuggets team coming off a 7-game war. With that said, San Antonio has a unique matchup advantage over the Thunder, and if Denver gets past them, it could be a sign that they’ve regained their early-season form. OKC will be challenged and pushed to the brink, but I’m still confident in their ability to be the first back-to-back champs since the dynastic Warriors.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock