By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-02 15:30:00
27年前，二年级生蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 带领马刺队夺得了队史首个总冠军。
如今，在2026年，一位新时代的现象级内线将力求重塑辉煌，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 试图再次让纽约人梦碎。
历史会重演吗？只有时间能给出答案，但所有迹象都表明，这将是一轮漫长而精彩的系列赛。
常规赛对决
风格决定比赛。这在圣安东尼奥马刺无论是常规赛还是季后赛对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆（OKC）时都显而易见，而总决赛也可能会是如此。
除了克利夫兰骑士之外，纽约尼克斯是今年东部唯一一支在常规赛对阵马刺时战绩占优的球队。尼克斯无论是在对位文班还是马刺的后卫线上，都显得游刃有余：卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 既能拉开空间，又能统治篮板，而他们身材高大、运动能力出色的侧翼群，也能在对抗和速度上匹配马刺的后场。
这一切在常规赛的交手中得到了印证，纽约以2比1赢下了系列赛。双方前两场对决出现了一些异常情况，比如文班没有打满平时的出场时间，而马刺当时的首发依然是哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 而非朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)。不过，在第三场也是最后一场对决中，双方阵容齐整，最终尼克斯以114-89大胜。考虑到这是马刺在16胜1负的强势期中遭遇的唯一一场败仗，这或许是尼克斯本赛季最令人印象深刻的一场胜利。
在这三场比赛中，尼克斯多投进了17记三分球（多出手了29次），多抢了12个前场篮板，并多造成了对方8次失误——其中大部分失误发生在最后一场、也是最具说服力的那场比赛中，当时他们逼迫马刺出现了多达22次失误。我们稍后会详细分析这些领域，但首先，让我们来看看对位情况。
当圣安东尼奥处于进攻端时，尼克斯主要用唐斯防守文班，乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 防守斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)，杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 防守尚帕尼，OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 防守德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 防守德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)。我预计季后赛也会有类似的安排，但会进行一些微调。让哈特和阿奴诺比去防守马刺的两位主要持球人是合理的，因为在挡拆防守中，他们最擅长换防文班。不过，我预计尼克斯会让阿奴诺比去防守卡斯尔，而让哈特去防守福克斯，因为阿奴诺比的身材和力量更适合去限制对抗能力更强的后卫卡斯尔。
此外，在系列赛的某个时刻，文班肯定会让唐斯陷入犯规麻烦，届时纽约将不得不让阿奴诺比来防守这位“外星人”。尽管阿奴诺比比文班矮了9英寸（约23厘米），但他的身体天赋（体重240磅，臂展超过7英尺）使他成为联盟中防守文班效果最好的球员之一，尼克斯甚至可以直接将他作为首选防守人。这样一来，唐斯就可以放空卡斯尔去进行协防，而卡斯尔的投篮将再次成为焦点：他在对阵开拓者和森林狼时三分命中率高达44%，但在对阵雷霆时仅有23%。
在防守端，马刺此前让文班防守哈特，卡斯尔防守唐斯，福克斯防守布伦森，瓦塞尔防守布里奇斯，尚帕尼防守阿奴诺比。乍看之下，尼克斯拥有一些明显的对位优势。放空像哈特这样手感时热时冷的投手是冒险的；虽然卡斯尔是圣安东尼奥外线对抗能力最强的防守者，但他面对唐斯（绰号“大猫”/Big Purr）时体型依然处于绝对劣势，随时面临被对方直接在头顶干拔投篮的风险。此外，鉴于福克斯脚踝扭伤，再指望他去防守布伦森已不现实，这一防守任务可能会交到瓦塞尔或卡斯尔手中，而另一人则去对位唐斯。然而，这依然会让阿奴诺比对上一个体型小得多的防守者，他完全可以进行身体碾压。一瞬间，马刺面对联盟几乎所有球队时所拥有的体型优势便荡然无存了。
如果有必要，圣安东尼奥可以采用更传统的对位防守，让文班防守唐斯，卡斯尔防守阿奴诺比，瓦塞尔防守布伦森，从而消除尼克斯可能拥有的任何体型或力量优势。然而，这又带来了一个新问题，而这可能会成为决定整个系列赛走向的关键。
唐斯能否将文班拉出禁区？
本轮系列赛最关键的战场在于唐斯与文班之间的博弈。到目前为止，马刺在季后赛中遇到的三个对手都至少拥有一名无法拉开空间的内线，这让“外星人”文班可以游离防守、随时协防，但在面对唐斯时，这一招将不再奏效。鉴于纽约强大的投射能力（他们在季后赛的三分命中率高达40.7%），圣安东尼奥可能会被迫采用传统的对位，但这可能会给尼克斯留出半开放式的突破通道，而这恰恰正中尼克斯的下怀。
尼克斯在季后赛的篮下出手次数高居联盟首位，他们有多达38.5%的出手是在距离篮筐4英尺（约1.2米）以内完成的。这部分归因于他们的对手（克利夫兰、费城和亚特兰大在常规赛允许对手篮下出手频率的榜单中均处于联盟后半段），但毫无疑问，尼克斯自身也更加注重冲击篮筐。
意料之中的是，马刺是一支统治级的护筐球队，在季后赛中仅允许对手在篮下打出55.5%的命中率，这比排名第二的底特律活塞还要低4个百分点。有趣的是，这并没有阻止对手比平时更多地冲击马刺的禁区——对手31.1%的出手都来自篮下，而常规赛这一比例仅为29%。这里的策略是通过不断冲击文班来消耗他，让他陷入犯规麻烦，和/或创造更容易抢到前场篮板并获得二次进攻得分的机会。后一种方法在某种程度上对马刺在西部的对手奏效了，而尼克斯也完全有能力利用这一点。
篮板球争夺
尼克斯是季后赛中篮板球最好的球队之一，他们能抢下31.9%的前场篮板，同时保护好75.7%的后场篮板。相比之下，马刺的篮板数据较常规赛有所下滑，前场篮板率为30%，而防守篮板率仅为70.3%。如果唐斯真的成功将文班拉离篮下，而尼克斯继续保持近40%的篮下出手比例，那么马刺可能会遇到大麻烦。
马刺也可以让文班去放空哈特来进行协防。然而，和卡斯尔一样，哈特在很大程度上也会让采取这种策略的球队付出代价，他在常规赛场均出手3.7次三分，命中率高达41.3%。虽然这些数据在季后赛期间降到了30.3%，但即使投篮不中，哈特也能制造其他麻烦。他是一名非常出色的空切手，如果无人防守，他能悄无声息地溜到防线身后轻松得分；同时，哈特也是后卫位置上最擅长抢前场篮板的球员之一。即使马刺设法让文班更靠近篮筐，但在“外星人”忙于防守突破时，他们也面临着哈特在无人干扰下冲抢二次进攻机会的风险。此外，采用非传统对位意味着防守唐斯的将是一个体型小得多的防守者，唐斯届时便可以在外线肆意开火。
三分球对决
在常规赛中，马刺和尼克斯是底角三分出手比例最高的两支球队，底角三分出手占其总出手的12.9%。在季后赛中，这一比例在马刺降至11.6%，在尼克斯降至10.7%，但他们同时也让对手获得了更多这样的出手：马刺让对手在底角出手了12%的投篮（在季后赛球队中最多），而尼克斯也紧随其后，这一比例为11.6%（第三多）。
然而，这两支球队在底角三分的命中率上却有着天壤之别。纽约投出了惊人的42.1%的命中率，而马刺仅为30.9%——比他们常规赛的数据（39.7%）低了近9个百分点。圣安东尼奥在选择放空谁时一直非常有针对性，即使以亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 这样的角色球员在多场比赛中手感火热为代价，这种策略也收到了成效。如果尼克斯继续保持滚烫的投篮手感，且哈特也开始投进三分，马刺可能会被迫采用“五外”防守体系，从而将文班拉到外线并空出禁区。即使哈特持续挣扎，纽约也可以换上兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 来打五外阵容，而马刺则需要在进攻端无情地针对他，让这种阵容无法在场上立足。
尼克斯在防守端也面临着同样棘手的问题。马刺通过文班的顺下牵制力创造了大量的底角三分机会，而瓦塞尔和尚帕尼等神射手通常是这一战术的受益者。虽然马刺在底角三分的整体表现不佳，但他们通过在非底角三分区域投出38.9%的命中率，使得其总三分命中率保持在36.3%。在马刺的底角三分投开之前，纽约绝不能轻易放空底角，但这又会给文班和马刺的后卫们创造更轻松的突破到篮下的机会，而尼克斯在篮下防守端正让对手打出惨不忍睹的69.4%的命中率。
两支球队都需要做出两难的选择，谁能迫使对方防守做出更多调整，谁就将占据上风。
转换进攻与失误控制
在常规赛的最后一场交手中，尼克斯逼迫圣安东尼奥出现了22次失误——这是一个令人震惊的数字，因为马刺在常规赛中的失误率排在联盟第四低（12.9%），不过这一数据在季后赛中已经上升到了14.7%。
面对在季后赛中能在16.2%的防守回合中造成对手失误的尼克斯，马刺必须保护好球权。尼克斯通过这些失误打出了15%的转换进攻频率，并在这些回合中轰下了高达138.9的进攻效率（ORTG）。圣安东尼奥在转换进攻中同样致命，他们在16.9%的回合中推反击，进攻效率达到133.6，且两队都将对手的反击频率限制在12%以下。两支球队也非常擅长将对手逼入阵地战，他们各自有超过81%的防守回合是在阵地战中完成的。简而言之，这将是两队强项之间的强强对话，谁能在这场对决中胜出，谁就将在系列赛中占据巨大优势。
X因素：米切尔·罗宾逊
假设他能带着手指骨折的伤势出战，纽约这个“公开的秘密武器”可能会成为左右系列赛天平的关键棋子。罗宾逊独特的体型与敏捷性结合，使他成为联盟中为数不多让文班无法占到明显身体便宜的球员之一，而这可能会在进攻篮板上体现出来。
在罗宾逊出战的季后赛时间里，尼克斯的前场篮板率达到了惊人的38.2%（堪比当年的休斯敦火箭），并且凭借顶级的进攻（124.8 ORTG）和防守（109.1 DRTG），打出了统治级的+15.7净效率值。罗宾逊面对马刺时的身体优势并不只是理论上的：在NBA季中锦标赛（NBA Cup）中他与文班对位的分钟里，尼克斯抢下了12个前场篮板，而马刺仅抢到了5个防守篮板。
是的，你没有看错。在马刺自己的半场，纽约以12对5的篮板数完爆了圣安东尼奥。
尼克斯还可以使出另一个变招，那就是派出唐斯和罗宾逊联袂的“双塔”阵容。在季后赛的54个回合中，纽约这套阵容的前场篮板率达到了40.7%，进攻效率高达127.8，尽管防守端有些受损（防守效率为123.5）。这不仅会让马刺根本抢不到篮板，还可能迫使他们祭出“法式香草”（French Vanilla）双塔阵容，而这是主教练米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 极不情愿使用的套路：圣安东尼奥的这套双塔组合在一起仅打了13个回合，净效率值低至-20.9，这惨状足以让萨姆·辛基 (Sam Hinkie) 都感到汗颜。
鉴于小拇指的伤势，我们目前仍未收到关于罗宾逊能否出战的确切消息，但考虑到他在这轮系列赛中可能扮演的举足轻重的角色，所有人都在屏息以待。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Spurs vs. Knicks: Matchups, questions, and X-Factors
Spurs vs. Knicks: Matchups, questions, and X-Factors
27 years ago, a sophomore Tim Duncan led the Spurs to their first title in franchise history.
Now, in 2026, a new generational big man will look to do the same, as Wemby attempts to break the hearts of New Yorkers again.
Will history repeat itself? Only time will tell, and all signs point to a long and exciting series.
The regular-season matchup
Styles make fights. That was evident in San Antonio’s matchup against OKC both in the regular season and the playoffs, and the finals could prove to be the same.
Outside of Cleveland, New York was the only other East team who managed to have a winning regular season record against the Spurs this year. The Knicks can match up well both against Wemby and San Antonio’s guards: KAT and Robinson can space the floor or dominate on the glass, while their long, athletic wings can match the physicality and speed of the Spurs’ backcourt.
All of this came to fruition in the season series, which New York won 2-1. The first two games in their matchup included some oddities, such as Wemby not playing his usual minutes load while the Spurs were still starting Harrison Barnes instead of Julian Champagnie. Still, both sides were healthy for their third and final matchup, which resulted in a 114-89 Knicks blowout win that might’ve been the most impressive victory of the season, considering that that was the only Spurs loss in a stretch in which they went 16-1.
In those three games, the Knicks made 17 more threes (on 29 more attempts), grabbed 12 more offensive rebounds, and forced eight more turnovers — most of which came in the final and most telling game, where they made the Spurs cough up the ball 22 times. We’ll cover those areas in more detail later on, but first, the matchups.
When San Antonio was on offense, the Knicks primarily had KAT on Wemby, Hart on Castle, Brunson on Champagnie, Anunoby on Fox, and Bridges on Vassell. I expect something similar in the playoffs, with a few minor tweaks. It makes sense for New York to put Hart and Anunoby on the Spurs’ two primary ballhandlers, as they’re most capable of switching onto Wemby in pick-and-rolls. However, I expect the Knicks to have Anunoby on Castle and Hart on Fox instead, as Anunoby’s size and strength are better suited to defend a more physical guard in Castle.
Moreover, Wemby will certainly put KAT in foul trouble at some point in the series, and New York will need to have Anunoby guard the Alien instead. Despite being nine inches shorter, Anunoby’s physical traits (weighing 240 with a wingspan over 7 feet) make him one of the best Wemby defenders in the league, and the Knicks could use him as the primary option too. This could allow KAT to roam off of Castle, whose shooting would be thrust into the spotlight again: he shot 44% frrom deep against the Blazers and Wolves, but just 23% against the Thunder.
On the other end, the Spurs had Wemby on Hart, Castle on KAT, Fox on Brunson, Vassell on Bridges, and Champagnie on Anunoby. Right off the bat, there are some obvious matchup advantages in the Knicks’ favor. It’s risky to leave a streaky shooter like Hart open, and while Castle is San Antonio’s most physical perimeter defender, he’s still much smaller than KAT and risks Big Purr shooting over him too. Moreover, it’s no longer viable to expect Fox to guard Brunson given his ankle sprain, and that assignment could be given to either Vassell or Castle, with the other on KAT. However, that still leaves Anunoby on a much smaller player whom he can bully, and suddenly, the Spurs’ physical advantage over just about every team in the league has disappeared.
If needed, San Antonio could play a more traditional matchup where Wemby guards KAT, Castle guards Anunoby, and Vassell guards Brunson, thus eliminating any size/strength advantage that the Knicks might have. However, this presents a new problem that the entire series could hinge on.
Can KAT force Wemby out of the paint?
The most crucial battleground in this series is the KAT vs Wemby chess-match. All three of the Spurs’ playoff opponents thus far have featured at least one non-spacing big that the Alien can roam off of, but that won’t be the case against Big Purr. Given New York’s shooting prowess (they’re making 40.7% of threes in the postseason), San Antonio might be forced into playing traditional matchups, but that could result in semi-open driving lanes for the Knicks, which plays right into their strength.
New York is leading the playoffs in attempts around the rim, with a whopping 38.5% of their shots being taken within 4 feet of the basket. Some of that is due to their competition (Cleveland, Philly, and Atlanta were all in the bottom half of the league in rim frequency conceded during the regular season), but there’s no doubt that the Knicks have also made it more of a priority to get to the hole.
Unsurprisingly, the Spurs have been a dominant rim-protecting team, allowing opponents to shoot just 55.5% at the basket in the playoffs, which is 4% lower than Detroit in second place. Interestingly, that hasn’t deterred teams from driving more against San Antonio than usual, as 31.1% of opposing shots have come at the rim, compared to just 29% in the regular season. The strategy here is to attack Wemby in the hopes of wearing him down, getting him in foul trouble, and/or creating easier opportunities to get offensive rebounds and rack up second-chance points. That latter approach worked to some extent for the Spurs’ West opponents, and the Knicks are in a good position to exploit it too.
Rebounding
New York has been one of the best rebounding teams in the playoffs, grabbing 31.9% of their own misses while corralling 75.7% of their defensive boards. On the other hand, the Spurs have seen a drop off from their regular season numbers, having an ORB% of 30% but just a 70.3% defensive rebounding rate. If KAT does manage to pull Wemby away from the rim while the Knicks continue attempting almost 40% of their shots at the basket, then the Spurs could be in big trouble.
San Antonio could counter by having Wemby roam off of Hart instead. Like Castle, though, Hart has largely made teams pay for that strategy, and he shot 41.3% from deep in the regular season on 3.7 attempts per game. Those numbers are down to just 30.3% during the playoffs, but Hart presents other problems even if his shots aren’t falling. He’s a very good cutter who can sneak behind the defense for easy finishes if left unguarded, and Hart is one of the best offensive rebounders from the guard position too. Even if the Spurs manage to keep Wemby closer to the rim, they risk having Hart fly in uncontested for second-chance opportunities when the Alien is occupied with defending drives. Moreover, playing non-traditional matchups would mean a much smaller defender will be on KAT, who could then bomb away from deep.
The three-point battle
The Spurs and Knicks were the two most prolific shooting teams from the corners in the regular season, attempting 12.9% of all shots from those areas. In the playoffs, those numbers have dropped to 11.6% for San Antonio and 10.7% for New York, while giving up more of those same attempts for their opposition: the Spurs are conceding 12% of opponent shots from the corners (the most among playoff teams) while the Knicks aren’t far behind at 11.6% (3rd most).
However, the two teams’ own accuracy from the corners couldn’t be more different. New York has made a scorching 42.1% of their attempts while the Spurs are at just 30.9% — almost 9% lower than their regular season number (39.7%). San Antonio has been selective with who they’ve chosen to leave open, and it’s paid off even at the expense of role players such as Alex Caruso catching fire for multiple games. If the Knicks continue shooting fireballs and Hart starts making his threes, the Spurs might be forced to guard them five-out, thus pulling Wemby to the perimeter and opening up the lane. Even if Hart continues to struggle, New York can play five-out with Landry Shamet instead, and the Spurs will need to hunt him relentlessly on offense to make such a lineup untenable.
The Knicks have an equally difficult problem to solve in their end. San Antonio generates large quantities of corner 3s through Wemby’s roll gravity, and snipers like Vassell and Champagnie are usually the beneficiaries. While the Spurs have struggled from the corners as a whole, they’ve made 36.3% of their total threes by converting at a 38.9% from above the break. New York cannot afford to leave the corners open until those shots start falling, but that would then give Wemby and the Spurs’ guards easier opportunities to drive to the rim, where the Knicks are allowing an abysmal 69.4% shooting from opponents.
Both teams will need to pick their poison, and whoever forces the opposing defense to adjust more will have the upper hand.
Transition and turnovers
The Knicks forced San Antonio into turning the ball over 22 times in their final regular season game — a shocking number given that San Antonio had the fourth-best turnover percentage in the regular season (12.9%), which has increased to 14.7% in the playoffs.
The Spurs will need to take care of the ball against a Knicks team that has forced turnovers on 16.2% of their defensive possessions during the postseason, leading to a 15% transition frequency while logging a 138.9 offensive rating on such plays. San Antonio has been just as lethal, running on 16.9% of plays with a 133.6 ORTG, and both teams are letting their opposition run on less than 12% of all plays. Both teams are also very good at forcing the opposition into playing in the halfcourt, with over 81% of all their defensive possessions being played in such sets. In short, this will be a battle of strengths between the two teams, and whoever comes out on top will have a massive advantage in the series.
X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson
Assuming he plays with the broken finger, New York’s not-so-secret weapon could be the key piece that swings the series in their favor. Robinson’s unique combination of size and agility makes him one of the few players in the league whom Wemby won’t have an obvious physical advantage over, and that could show up on the offensive glass.
With Robinson playing in the playoffs, the Knicks have a Houstonian 38.2% OREB rate, with a dominant +15.7 net rating on the back of both an elite offense (124.8 ORTG) and defense (109.1 DRTG). Robinson’s physical advantage over the Spurs isn’t just theoretical, either: during the minutes he matched up against Wemby in the NBA Cup, the Knicks grabbed 12 offensive rebounds to the Spurs’ 5 defensive ones.
Yes, you read that right. New York outrebounded San Antonio 12-5 in the Spurs’ own end.
Another wrinkle the Knicks can employ is a double big lineup featuring KAT and Robinson together. In 54 playoff possessions, New York has a 40.7% OREB rate and a 127.8 offensive rating, although their defense has suffered with a 123.5 DRTG. Not only will this make it impossible for the Spurs to grab a rebound, it might also force them to play French Vanilla, which is a look that Mitch Johnson has been loath to use: San Antonio’s twin towers have only played 13 possessions together, resulting in a -20.9 net rating that would make Sam Hinkie blush.
We still have no word on Robinson’s availability given his pinky injury, but everyone should be waiting with bated breath given the outsized role he could play in this series.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock