By The Athletic NBA Staff | The Athletic, 2026-05-29 19:59:46
《The Athletic》将对2026年西部决赛中马刺对阵雷霆的抢七大战进行实时报道。
这一幕似乎早已注定。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆与圣安东尼奥马刺之间注定要打满七场。对于NBA球迷而言，不看满卫冕冠军与维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的全套强强对话，怎么能过瘾。正如我们的专栏作家约翰·霍林格 (John Hollinger)撰文所写，这组对决注定将成为我们这个时代的“黄绿大战”（湖人对凯尔特人）。
因此，在周六晚上于俄克拉荷马城打响的这场瞩目的抢七大战前夕——这场比赛将决定谁能晋级总决赛对阵纽约尼克斯——11位《The Athletic》的NBA专家对比赛走向以及谁正承受最大压力进行了预测。
谁将赢下抢七大战？
预测结果：马刺（11票中获得6票）。
支持马刺的理由……
迈克·沃库诺夫 (Mike Vorkunov)：眼下马刺看起来更加健康。谁知道雷霆在抢七大战中能从杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 身上得到多少帮助，甚至他能否上场都是个未知数。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 虽然健康，但在马刺的防守面前，他仿佛被关进了地狱牢笼。马刺用一众高大且敏捷的侧翼和后卫轮番伺候他，后防线上还有文班亚马坐镇，这简直就像是一场“伐木工大战”。
丹·沃伊克 (Dan Woike)：自从文班亚马下达了“凶狠犯规”的指令后，圣安东尼奥就成了身体对抗更强硬的一方，而雷霆对此未能做出回应。雷霆没人能站出来予以回敬，这让我更倾向于马刺会赢。
杰拉德·魏斯 (Jared Weiss)：文班亚马若能在比赛早期找到外线手感以打开局面，可能会是改变这轮系列赛走向的终极调整。如果他能投中那些外线球，雷霆根本没有行之有效的应对办法。事实上，全联盟都没有。如果雷霆不顾一切地去扑防他的外线，那么内线就会彻底向马刺敞开，供其予取予求。寄希望于文班亚马能连续两场打出统治级的表现是个巨大的赌注，但我愿意赌一把。
扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper)：文班现在话不多，所以我认为他正处于高度专注的状态。
支持雷霆的理由……
马库斯·汤普森二世 (Marcus Thompson II)：他们坐镇主场，拥有经验优势。而且文班亚马至今还没有连续两场打出统治级的表现。
克里斯蒂安·克拉克 (Christian Clark)：过去两年季后赛中，雷霆在佩科姆中心主场取得了17胜3负的战绩，场均净胜分高达+17.9分。
乔尔·洛伦齐 (Joel Lorenzi)：雷霆理应获得更多信任，因为他们曾经历过这种场面。过去两个赛季，对手要在他们的主场赢球需要付出极大的努力——通常需要绝杀，或者像这轮系列赛那样打到双加时。尽管他们从未在面对如此级别的防守时完成过致命一击，但从历史上看，他们在抢七大战中一向表现出色。
大卫·阿尔德里奇 (David Aldridge)：骨子里的抢七底蕴。
谁应该在抢七大战中承受最大的压力？
预测结果：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大（11票中获得6票）。次席：切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)；雷霆全队（各得2票）。
为什么SGA应该承受压力……
洛伦齐：在过去一年多的时间里，他完全有理由被视作世界上最好的球员。但文班亚马正在威胁这一秩序，他在多场比赛中都展现出了全场最佳球员的姿态，而马刺对SGA的限制也达到了前所未有的程度。抢七大战不仅将决定SGA的卫冕之路是否会折戟。在杰伦·威廉姆斯受限、阿杰伊·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 缺阵的情况下，如果他能在此刻打出英雄般的表现，无疑将极大提升SGA的历史地位。
沃伊克：他是MVP，但如今节奏全无，他的整体打法也正在被全国媒体拿着放大镜审视。
乔恩·克劳钦斯基 (Jon Krawczynski)：对于这位两届MVP得主来说，这轮系列赛打得并不顺利。他场均仅得到24.3分，创下了自2020年季后赛以来的新低。他的投篮命中率只有38%，三分命中率更是低至26%。所有的组织进攻重任都压在他一个人肩上，但这就是身为MVP必须承担的重担。他必须打得更好，雷霆才有机会。
沃库诺夫：承受最大压力的必须是SGA。组织进攻的重任将再次全部落在他的肩上。杰伦·威廉姆斯有伤在身，贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 只是个辅助。而SGA必须面对一支已经连续六场让他一筹莫展的球队。必须有人为雷霆挺身而出解决得分问题，而所有的目光都聚焦在这位蝉联MVP的身上。
萨姆·阿米克 (Sam Amick)：如果SGA能在这轮系列赛中完成完美收官，打出符合其身价的统治级表现，力克文班和马刺，那么一切都将是皆大欢喜的结局。但如果抢七大战重演第一场的一幕——当时文班统治了比赛，搞砸了SGA的MVP颁奖典礼——那么他在联盟权力版图中的地位将遭受沉重打击。
汤普森：一位两届MVP如果在一场抢七大战中“隐身”，那他将很难洗刷这个污点。
其他选择……
杰森·琼斯 (Jason Jones)：切特·霍姆格伦。他是一位全明星，也是联盟中崭露头角的新星内线。人们并不期望他能打出文班亚马那样的逆天数据，但他必须展现出比这轮系列赛大多数时候更强的影响力，才能给雷霆创造最大的胜算。
哈珀：切特·霍姆格伦。他在这轮系列赛中基本上毫无存在感。如果雷霆以后不得不做出薪资方面的抉择，这场比赛的表现或许会促使他未来在一次清理薪资空间的交易中被送往一支弱队。
魏斯：雷霆。出于以下几个原因，这可能是他们最后一次在联盟中占据绝对上风的机会。首先，随着球员的成长以及从这次对决中汲取的丰富经验，马刺下赛季很可能会变得更强。其次，外界对雷霆涉嫌假摔的口诛笔伐，可能会改变裁判未来对他们的吹罚尺度。尽管希望这段宿敌关系能长期保持竞争力，但在这场抢七大战之后，雷霆可能会沦为追赶者。
阿尔德里奇：雷霆。一旦你品尝过冠军的滋味，你就想一直留在王座上。
克拉克：卢根茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)。在这轮系列赛中，当他在场时，雷霆净输了54分。他的三分球只有22投4中。我相信马刺会很乐意放他在外线出手。他能投进几个球吗？
谁是抢七大战的“X因素”？
预测结果：迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)（11票中获得3票）。次席：卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)（2票）。
支持哈珀的理由……
沃伊克：他在系列赛首战中打出了代表作，并且他的身体对抗能力和比赛成熟度足以让他撑起这样的关键时刻。
克拉克：这位马刺新秀表现十分抢眼。他在第一场和第六场比赛中表现惊艳，但在中间的几场比赛中却相当沉寂。如果他发挥出色，我认为圣安东尼奥会赢。
洛伦齐：正是他沉稳的作风和关键的投篮，配合上文班亚马的自信与输出，在第六场早早将雷霆击溃。他在进攻端梳理出的条理和延续性，让马刺能够不断做出回应——面对一支总能从各种意想不到的地方找到应对办法的雷霆队，这至关重要。
其他选择……
哈珀：卢克·科内特。如果马刺能挺过文班不在场的那几分钟，他们就能赢下这场比赛。
沃库诺夫：科内特在这轮系列赛中打得很挣扎。他在抢七大战中能上场多久、发挥如何，将至关重要。
汤普森：斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)。当他打得好时，会在攻防两端都产生影响，并且能与文班形成极佳的互补。马刺需要卡斯尔在客场打出一场精彩的比赛。
琼斯：德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)。这是他职业生涯的第二场抢七大战，而且他是带伤（踝关节）出战。如果说这位2023年的“年度最佳关键球员”有什么时候该爆发的话，那就是这场抢七了。
魏斯：亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)。雷霆赢球时他就是得分机器，输球时他在进攻端就如同隐形。雷霆需要赢下三分线外的对决，而他手感火热的夜晚正是雷霆得以维持生机的关键。
克劳钦斯基：雷霆的三分投射。这轮系列赛中，他们三分球的起伏就像坐过山车。雷霆在第三场赢球时三分命中率为45%，第四场输球时跌至18%，第五场赢球时回升到44%，第六场输球时又降到25%。角色球员通常在主场投得更好，他们也必须做到这一点。如果他们再次手感冰凉，雷霆很难找到赢球的办法。
阿米克：在讨论“X因素”时选择一位超级巨星有些不合常规，但文班亚马在这轮系列赛中的表现起伏不定，让人很难不选他。当他进入状态时——全神贯注、侵略性十足，并投进他偶尔会迷恋的三分球——感觉他凭借一己之力就能决定比赛结果。但他在这轮系列赛中也曾数次隐形，尤其是在篮板球的争夺上。文班要么主宰比赛并赢下系列赛，要么经历一次痛苦的失利，而这只会让他变得更强大。
迄今为止，马刺与雷霆的系列赛给你留下的最大启示是什么？
克劳钦斯基：这正是我一直期待看到的对决。是的，在大多数场次中，分差比我预期的要大。但当一支伟大的球队打顺了的时候，情况就是如此。这轮系列赛局势多次出现剧烈波动。两支执教极佳、充满骄傲的球队在不断见招拆招。我非常享受这轮系列赛。
沃库诺夫：未来几年这组对决都会非常精彩。我已经开始想象下赛季这段宿敌关系的下一阶段会是什么样子了，因为两支球队必然会为了击败对方而努力提升实力。
哈珀：我希望在未来的十年里，每年季后赛都能看到这组对决。而且我希望每次都打满七场。这是篮球界最棒的对决。
阿尔德里奇：我迫不及待想看到几年后这两支球队真正“结怨”的样子。年复一年地在争冠之路上交手，自然会催生出这种宿敌情绪。
沃伊克：这两支球队在西部已经处于遥遥领先的独一档位置。
克拉克：文班亚马已经是这个联盟中最好的球员了，而且他的进攻技巧甚至还没有完全打磨好。他需要在三分线内开发出几项招牌杀招。令人感到恐怖的是，年仅22岁的他已经拥有了比任何人都强大的影响力，而他竟然还有如此巨大的提升空间。
汤普森：文班亚马简直是个大杀器。
琼斯：文班亚马在进攻端的侵略性是决定性的因素。他必须学会如何保持这种稳定输出。
洛伦齐：历史上从未有哪支球队能比这支马刺更好地限制SGA。
魏斯：在经历了多年人人笃信“三分至上”的NBA之后，我们突然在防守时代中醒来，我太喜欢这一点了。这两支球队的投射水平都很平庸，但都拥有极其深厚的防守和组织深度。比赛中充斥着接连不断的紧逼、夹击和协防。场面甚至显得有些混乱，而这恰恰是其引人入胜之处。整轮系列赛的悬念感始终拉满。
阿米克：即使这轮系列赛群星闪耀，但“阵容深度至关重要”的NBA大趋势依然没有改变。任何一个“配角”最终都可能成为左右比赛胜负的X因素。
西部哪支球队最有可能挤进雷霆与马刺这一梯队？
预测结果：湖人（11票中获得3票）。其他候选：犹他、明尼苏达、丹佛、达拉斯、波特兰。
支持湖人的理由……
沃伊克：如果湖人能够围绕卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 构建一套完全优化的阵容，他们将拥有最大的机会。要想与雷霆、马刺这样的球队抗衡，你必须拥有一名世界级的超巨，而西部目前只有卢卡和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 达到了这个级别。
克劳钦斯基：湖人拥有东契奇，身处对自由球员极具吸引力的城市，并且在新一届财大气粗的老板带领下，他们有足够的资金可以投入。森林狼凭借安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 同样拥有一条崛起之路，但他们需要对阵容进行极其精细且棘手的调整。相比之下，湖人的争冠之路要更为直接。
克拉克：我会选湖人，因为他们拥有东契奇这位年仅27岁的联盟前五球星。虽然围绕他提升阵容还有很多工作要做，但我预计湖人将在下个赛季采取非常积极的运作。
其他选择……
阿尔德里奇：犹他。对于一支拥有众多潜力新星（基扬特·乔治 (Keyonte George)、劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)、贾伦·杰克逊二世 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)、沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler)）且急需一位核心基石的球队来说，若能得到AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 或达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)，将极大提升他们的上限。
沃库诺夫：犹他爵士。他们摆烂了那么久可不是白费力气的。下个赛季的爵士将是一支高大、年轻且充满活力的球队。他们将在马尔卡宁、杰克逊、乔治的基础上，再引入榜眼秀和埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)。他们手里还握有大量富余的选秀权，并且管理层运作积极。他们需要完成巨大的飞跃，但他们确实拥有实现这一目标的才华和资源。这也许不会在2026-27赛季立刻实现，但一旦发生，它的速度会比你想象的还要快。（额外推荐：不要忽视达拉斯独行侠）。
洛伦齐：我不确定这需要多长时间，但我敢打赌独行侠迟早会发起冲击。
哈珀：明尼苏达。这是一支优秀的季后赛球队，但他们需要保持绝对健康。
琼斯：目前还没有其他球队拥有雷霆或马刺那样的阵容深度。湖人（东契奇）和明尼苏达（爱德华兹）都拥有能够凭一己之力接管系列赛的超级巨星。只有拥有这种年轻超巨的球队，才有可能掀翻这两大劲旅。
魏斯：森林狼和丹佛可以通过阵容微调达到那个高度，但从长远来看，我们可能需要把目光投向波特兰甚至犹他这样正在崛起的新势力，他们未来或许能占有一席之地。但就下个赛季而言，雷霆和马刺依然是最被看好的两大热门。不过，让我们先看看扬尼斯 (Giannis) 最终会去哪里。
阿米克：我依然会选丹佛。他们这赛季的收尾很糟糕，去年夏天为了围绕约基奇补强阵容而做出的运作也没有达到预期。但他们依然拥有联盟中最伟大的球员之一，身边还有贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 这样的顶级帮手。他们很可能会在今年休赛期进行更多运作，力求重返顶级梯队。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Who will win Thunder-Spurs Game 7? Who is feeling the pressure? Our staff predictions
Who will win Thunder-Spurs Game 7? Who is feeling the pressure? Our staff predictions
The Athletic has live coverage of Spurs vs. Thunder in Game 7 of the 2026 Western Conference finals.
This always felt inevitable.
Of course there would be seven games played between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. NBA fans deserve no less than the full dose of the reigning champs vs. Victor Wembanyama. As our John Hollinger wrote, this matchup looks set to be this generation’s Lakers-Celtics.
So, going into Saturday night’s mammoth Game 7 in Oklahoma City, which will determine who faces the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals, 11 Athletic NBA writers predicted what we might see and who is feeling the pressure.
Who will win Game 7?
The pick: Spurs (6 of 11 votes).
The case for San Antonio…
Mike Vorkunov: Right now the Spurs seem healthier. Who knows what, if anything, the Thunder can get from Jalen Williams in Game 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy but he’s been in a hell in a cell against this Spurs defense. They’ve defended him with a slew of big, fast wings and guards, and Victor Wembanyama on the back line, like a lumberjack match.
Dan Woike: Since the “hard foul” order from Wembanyama, San Antonio has been the more physical team and the Thunder haven’t responded. The fact that no one mustered up any kind of receipt makes me tilt this in San Antonio’s favor.
Jared Weiss: Wembanyama finding his outside shot to unlock things early could be the final adjustment that shifts this series. If that shot is going down, the Thunder don’t have a viable counter to adjust to it. Nobody does. If they sell out to take the shot away, the lane is far too open for the Spurs to take advantage. It’s a big bet to presume Wembanyama will have two complete games in a row, but I’m taking it.
Zach Harper: Wemby won’t talk much now, so I assume he’s hyper-focused.
The case for OKC…
Marcus Thompson II: They’re at home. They have the experience edge. And Wembanyama hasn’t put together consecutive dominant games yet.
Christian Clark: The Thunder in the past two years are 17-3 with a +17.9 point differential at Paycom Center in the postseason.
Joel Lorenzi: The Thunder deserve the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been here before. It’s taken incredible lengths to beat them on their home floor these past two seasons — usually a game-winner or, in this series, double-overtime. While they’ve never needed to find a knockout punch for this caliber of a defense, they’ve historically responded well in Game 7s.
David Aldridge: Institutional Game 7 memory.
Who should be feeling the most Game 7 pressure?
The pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6 of 11 votes). Runners-up: Chet Holmgren; the entire Thunder team (2 votes each).
Why SGA should be feeling the pressure…
Lorenzi: He’s had a fairly good case for being the best player in the world for the past year and change. But Wembanyama is threatening the pecking order, appearing like the best player on the floor in multiple games while the Spurs limit SGA to a degree no team has. Game 7 won’t just decide whether SGA’s title defense falls short. With Jalen Williams impaired and Ajay Mitchell unavailable, an act of heroics in this spot would undoubtedly boost SGA’s legacy.
Woike: He’s the MVP, he’s been in a miserable rhythm and his overall game has been dissected on a national scale.
Jon Krawczynski: It hasn’t been a great series for the two-time MVP. His 24.3 points per game are his lowest average since the 2020 playoffs. He is shooting 38 percent from the field, including 26 percent from 3. All of the playmaking is on his shoulders, but that is the burden of being the MVP. He has to play better for OKC to have a chance.
Vorkunov: It has to be SGA. The playmaking burden is going to be all on him again. J-Dub is hurt. Jared McCain is a sidekick. And SGA has to do it against a team that has flummoxed him for six games. Somebody has to make the points happen for OKC and all arrows are pointing at the back-to-back MVP.
Sam Amick: If SGA can put his finishing touches on this series, outplaying Wemby and the Spurs with the kind of performance befitting his stature, then it’s an all’s-well-that-ends-well sort of scenario. But if Game 7 looks anything like Game 1, when Wemby ruled the day and spoiled SGA’s trophy ceremony, then his place in the league’s power structure will take a serious hit.
Thompson: A two-time MVP will have a hard time living down not showing up in a Game 7.
Other choices…
Jason Jones: Chet Holmgren. He’s an All-Star one of the league’s emerging big men. He’s not expected to post Wembanyama-like stats, but he has to have a bigger impact than he’s had most of the series to give OKC their best chance to win.
Harper: Chet Holmgren. He’s been mostly insignificant and if the Thunder have to make salary decisions down the line, maybe this helps him get shipped to a bad team in a salary dump.
Weiss: The Thunder. This could be their last chance to have the upper hand on the league for a few reasons. First off, the Spurs are likely getting better next season with their development and the vast experience they have gained from this battle. Then there is the public outcry over the Thunder’s perceived flopping, which could shift the way they are officiated in the future. Hopefully, this rivalry remains competitive for a long time, but the Thunder may be the underdog after this Game 7.
Aldridge: The Thunder. Once you are a champion, you want to stay one.
Clark: Luguentz Dort. The Thunder have gotten outscored by 54 points with him on the floor in this series. He’s shot 4 of 22 from 3. I’m sure the Spurs will be content to let him launch from deep. Can he make a few shots?
Who is the X-factor heading into Game 7?
The pick: Dylan Harper (3 of 11 votes). Runner-up: Luke Kornet (2 votes).
The case for Harper…
Woike: He opened the series with a masterpiece and has the kind of physicality and maturity to his game to stand up to this moment.
Clark: The Spurs rookie is a standout. He was sensational in Games 1 and Game 6, and pretty quiet in between. If he plays well, I think San Antonio wins.
Lorenzi: It was his combination of poise and shotmaking, along with Wembanyama’s confidence and production, that sent OKC packing early in Game 6. His order and continuation of the offense allowed San Antonio to keep responding, necessary for a Thunder team that’s shown the capability to conjure answers from almost anywhere.
The other choices…
Harper: Luke Kornet. If the Spurs can survive the non-Wemby minutes, then they can win this game.
Vorkunov: Kornet has struggled this series. How much and how well he plays in Game 7 will matter.
Thompson: Stephon Castle. When he plays well, it impacts both ends and really complements Wemby. The Spurs need Castle to have a big road game.
Jones: De’Aaron Fox. This is the second Game 7 in his career and he’s played through an ankle injury. If there’s a time for the 2023 Clutch Player of the Year to break out, it’s Game 7.
Weiss: Alex Caruso. He has been a scoring machine when the Thunder have won and an offensive ghost when they’ve lost. The Thunder need to win the 3-point battle and his big shooting nights have been what’s kept them afloat.
Krawczynski: OKC’s 3-point shooting. The variance has been a rollercoaster in this series. The Thunder shot 45 percent from deep in a Game 3 win, 18 percent in the Game 4 loss, 44 percent in the Game 5 win and 25 percent in the Game 6 loss. Role players usually shoot better at home, and they’re going to have to. If they shoot it poorly again, it’s hard to see how they win.
Amick: It’s a little unorthodox to go with a superstar in any X-factor discussion, but Wembanyama has been so inconsistent in this series that it’s hard to pick anyone else. When he’s on — engaged, aggressive, and hitting that 3 that he falls in love with from time to time — it feels like he can decide the outcome all by himself. But he has disappeared at times in this series, too, especially on the boards. Wemby will either win the day, and the series, or endure a painful loss that only makes him better.
What is your biggest takeaway from Spurs-Thunder so far?
Krawczynski: This has been the battle I was hoping to see. Yes, the margins have been bigger than I expected, for the most part. But that is what can happen when a great team gets rolling. There have been huge swings back and forth in this series. Two extremely well-coached, prideful squads are throwing punches. I’ve loved watching it.
Vorkunov: This is gonna be so much fun for the next few years. And I’m already thinking about what the next stage of this rivalry looks like next season as the teams inevitably try to level up to beat the other.
Harper: I want this matchup in the playoffs for the next decade. And I want it going seven every time. This is the best matchup in basketball.
Aldridge: I can’t wait until these two teams truly hate each other in a few years. Playing one another for titles year after year does that.
Woike: These two teams are miles ahead of the pack in the West.
Clark: Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the league, and his offensive game isn’t that refined yet. He needs to develop a few go-to moves inside the arc. It’s scary how much better he can get when, at 22 years old, he’s already more impactful than anyone else.
Thompson: Wembanyama is a menace.
Jones: Wembanyama’s aggressiveness on offense is the deciding factor. He has to learn how to maintain it consistently.
Lorenzi: No team has ever defended SGA better.
Weiss: After years of everyone focusing on the NBA being all about 3s, we’ve suddenly woken up in a defensive era, which I love. Both of these teams are average shooting teams, but have deep defensive and playmaking depth. These games have been an onslaught of presses, traps and recoveries. It’s been kind of a mess, which is what makes it such a curiosity. The suspense has been real over the course of the series.
Amick: That even with all the stars in this series, the NBA trend of depth being crucial remains intact. Any number of “others” could wind up being the sort of X-factor that makes the difference.
Which West team has the best chance of wedging its way into the OKC-San Antonio tier?
The pick: The Lakers (3 of 11 votes). Also in consideration: Utah, Minnesota, Denver, Dallas, Portland.
The case for the Lakers…
Woike: If the Lakers can build a fully optimized roster around Luka Dončić, they’ll have the best chance. You have to have an all-world player to have a shot against these teams and Luka and Nikola Jokić are the only two in the West.
Krawczynski: The Lakers have Dončić, play in a city that attracts free agents and have some money to spend with a new, deep-pocketed ownership group. The Wolves have a path as well with Anthony Edwards, but they need to thread a needle with roster changes that will be tricky. The Lakers’ pathway to contention is a little more straightforward.
Clark: I’ll say the Lakers because they have a top-five player in Dončić who’s only 27 years old. There is a lot of work to do to improve the roster around him, but I expect the Lakers to be aggressive this next year.
The other choices…
Aldridge: Utah. Adding AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson raises the ceiling for a team that has lots of promising young talent (Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler) and needs a centerpiece.
Vorkunov: The Utah Jazz. They didn’t tank all that time for nothing. Next year the Jazz will be big, young and dynamic. They get to add the No. 2 pick to Markkanen, Jackson, George and Ace Bailey. They still have more surplus picks left in the holster and an aggressive front office. They’ll have to make a big leap but they should have the talent and the means to get there. It probably won’t come in 2026-27 but if it comes, it’ll happen sooner than you think. (Bonus pick: Don’t overlook the Mavericks here).
Lorenzi: I’m not sure how long it’ll take, but I’ll bet on the Mavericks making a bid at some point.
Harper: Minnesota. This is a good playoff team but it needs to be fully healthy.
Jones: There aren’t any other teams that have the depth of OKC or San Antonio. The Lakers (Dončić) and Minnesota (Edwards) both have superstars with the ability to take over a series. It’ll take a team with that kind of young star to knock off one of these teams.
Weiss: Minnesota and Denver could get there with a retool, but we may have to look to rising franchises like Portland or even Utah as someone who can stake a claim down the road. But for next season, these two teams are looking primed to be the favorites again. Let’s see where Giannis ends up first though.
Amick: I still say Denver. They had a bad finish, and the moves they made last summer to strengthen the roster around Jokić didn’t pan out as they’d hoped. But they still have one of the game’s greats, with an elite talent by his side in Jamal Murray, and will likely make more moves this offseason to try and return to that top tier.
By The Athletic NBA Staff, via The Athletic