By NBA Insiders, 2026-05-30 21:15:00
圣安东尼奥马刺与俄克拉荷马城雷霆将在西部决赛中迎来抢七决战。
面临淘汰边缘的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)和马刺在圣安东尼奥主场进行的第六战中，以118-91大胜卫冕冠军。文班亚马仅出场28分钟便砍下28分和10个篮板，领衔全队。与此同时，雷霆球星谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)手感冰凉，全场18投仅6中，仅得15分。在他出场的28分钟里，雷霆净输28分（正负值为-28）。
马刺和雷霆的抢七大战将于周六在俄克拉荷马城打响（美东时间晚8点，NBC/Peacock直播），胜者将在总决赛中迎战纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks)。若马刺胜出，这将是他们自2014年以来首次重返总决赛；若雷霆胜出，他们将成为自金州勇士 (Golden State Warriors)（2015至2019年连续5次）以来，首支连续两年杀入总决赛的球队。这也是自1982年拉里·伯德 (Larry Bird)与朱利叶斯·欧文 (Julius Erving)交手以来，首次有两位常规赛MVP评选前三的球员（文班亚马和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大）在分区决赛的抢七大战中正面交锋。
ESPN NBA记者与分析师本·戈利弗 (Ben Golliver)、温森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)、扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)、蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)以及迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)共同对抢七大战进行展望。此外，我们的专家团队也对这场注定精彩绝伦的终极决战进行了预测：
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抢七预测
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吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在第六战中表现低迷。如果他无法成为场上最佳球员，雷霆还能赢下抢七吗？
戈利弗： 雷霆的无名英雄们在这轮系列赛中已经倾其所有，但现在是吉尔杰斯-亚历山大拿出MVP级表现的时候了。
尽管他在西决中陷入了投篮铁打的窘境，但在上赛季主场的两次抢七大战中，他都扮演了关键角色。在次轮中，他砍下全场最高的35分，在与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)的对决中胜出，淘汰了丹佛掘金 (Denver Nuggets)。而在总决赛最后一战泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)受伤后，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大更是轰下全场最高的29分和12次助攻，率队捧起总冠军奖杯。
克拉姆： 角色球员、战术和策略调整固然重要，但有时季后赛的本质就是超级巨星之间的对决。在这轮系列赛中，当吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的得分不低于文班亚马时，雷霆3胜0负；而当文班亚马的得分超过这位两届MVP时，马刺同样是3胜0负。我们有理由相信，这一规律在抢七大战中仍将延续。
谁是抢七大战中最大的X因素？
戈利弗： 尽管德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)表现平平，但马刺在过去两场主场胜利中依然展现了足够的进攻火力。然而，在客场，他们需要这位经验最丰富的后卫在关键时刻挺身而出。
福克斯因脚踝伤势缺席了西决的前两场比赛，且在系列赛中看起来始终未能痊愈。这位两届全明星球员此前仅打过一次抢七，在2023年首轮代表萨克拉门托国王 (Sacramento Kings)不敌金州勇士的比赛中，他19投5中仅得到16分。
克拉姆： 在系列赛的前五场比赛中，马刺在卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)上场的时间段里全部输分，雷霆趁着文班亚马不在场疯狂拉开分差。但在第六战中，科内特在出场的13分钟里交出了+13的正负值。
在西决的六场比赛中，马刺有五场在文班亚马在场时赢分；在今年季后赛的14场完整比赛中，这一数据更是达到了13场（不包括他因伤病或驱逐提前退场的场次）。如果马刺在文班亚马下场休息时也能赢分或咬住比分，那么胜利几乎唾手可得。
如果______，雷霆将赢下抢七。
克拉姆： 他们的经验发挥作用。马刺在今年季后赛中从未显露怯意，但抢七大战的压力完全是另一个级别。这类比赛往往比普通的季后赛更加窒息、紧张，得分也更低。凭借上赛季两次抢七大战的胜利经验，雷霆深谙应对之道。
缺乏经验的马刺若能在客场掀翻卫冕冠军赢下抢七，将是一项里程碑式——但并非不可企及——的壮举。
如果______，马刺将赢下抢七。
戈利弗： 文班亚马继续压制吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，他们火热的外线手感能延续到客场，且后卫群能更好地控制失误。不过，这依然是一项艰巨的任务：雷霆在2026年季后赛的主场战绩为6胜1负，而去年夺冠期间他们的主场战绩高达11胜2负。值得一提的是，雷霆今年唯一的主场失利是在双加时中（首战对阵马刺），而他们2025年的两次主场失利也都是被对手读秒绝杀。
争取到在Paycom中心主场出战抢七的机会，正是雷霆在常规赛期间即便面临主力球员大面积伤病也从未松懈的原因。马刺主帅米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)应该提醒他的年轻弟子们，他们在常规赛中曾送给雷霆为数不多的主场败仗。
决战来临前，雷霆队内氛围如何？
麦克马洪： 包括吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在内的部分雷霆球员显得颇为放松，在遭遇惨败后仅几分钟，他们就在更衣室里开起了玩笑。
杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)因腿筋伤势缺席了前三场比赛，此役迎来复出却打得异常挣扎，其沮丧之情可想而知。不过他并没有给媒体发问的机会，而是在队友接受采访时悄悄溜出更衣室，避开了记者的追问。目前仍是未知数，主帅马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault)是否对明显受到伤病困扰的威廉姆斯保有足够的信心，并在抢七大战中继续委以重任。
决战来临前，马刺队内氛围如何？
莱特： 圣安东尼奥上下洋溢着无与伦比的自信，这种自信源于两队本赛季在常规赛和季后赛交手11次所建立的知己知彼。
“当我们身处逆境、退无可退时，我们总能爆发，”斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)说道，“不仅是发挥，还要打得好、投进球。我们的能量总是能用在对的地方。在那种破釜沉舟的时刻，我反而是最自信的。”
如今，两队都面临着输球即回家的绝境，而马刺在客场迎来这轮系列赛的终极决战时，反而在这份绝境中找到了从容。
“这就是一场定胜负的比赛，”朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)说道，“要么你们干掉我们，要么我们干掉你们。”
抢七失利将如何影响雷霆接下来的休赛期规划？
麦克马洪： 这或许是一个只有球队大老板克莱·贝内特 (Clay Bennett)才能确切回答的问题。雷霆休赛期的抉择将主要取决于贝内特对高昂支出的承受力，因为随着威廉姆斯和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)的顶薪提前续约合同开始生效，俄克拉荷马城将深陷奢侈税的深水区。
两位首发球员——卢根茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)——拥有合计近4700万美元的球队选项。雷霆是否必须要完成卫冕，才能让同时留住他们显得顺理成章？
抢七失利将如何影响马刺接下来的休赛期规划？
莱特： 这只会让圣安东尼奥更加坚定建队方向。毕竟，他们凭借一套拥有四名新秀合同期核心——文班亚马、卡斯尔、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)和卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)——的年轻阵容，一路走到了这个令人意想不到的高度。
马刺在今年6月的选秀大会中握有四个选秀权，其中两个在头35顺位。文班亚马将在今夏获得提前续约资格，有望签下NBA历史上最大规模的新秀续约合同（5年2.51亿美元），这笔签约几乎毫无悬念。圣安东尼奥有足够的薪资空间在自由球员市场上有所作为，但他们仍会倾注资源去培养卡斯尔、哈珀和布莱恩特等年轻新星。
尼克斯在抢七大战中应该支持谁？
古德威尔： 马刺。尼克斯本赛季曾两度击败马刺，且场面都极具说服力。虽然NBA杯夺冠感觉已是陈年往事，但那确实是一场真刀真枪的较量，当时仍替补出场且有出场时间限制的文班亚马正负值为-18。此外，尼克斯还曾在全美直播的比赛中大胜马刺25分，送给后者全明星赛后罕见的惨败。
如果雷霆从西决中突围，摆脱了文班亚马和马刺年轻生力军的纠缠，他们可能会爆发出极强的紧迫感。他们深知在当今的NBA中夺冠窗口期转瞬即逝，且未来多年都将与马刺缠斗，因此他们会感到必须拿下这枚戒指。尼克斯目前势头正盛，不会被任何对手吓倒，并且会觉得自己大有机会在客场先下一城。
专家预测：马刺vs雷霆抢七大战
大卫·丹尼斯 (David Dennis)： 雷霆
本·戈利弗： 雷霆
温森特·古德威尔： 雷霆
丹尼·格林 (Danny Green)： 雷霆
巴克斯特·霍姆斯 (Baxter Holmes)： 雷霆
扎克·克拉姆： 马刺
鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks)： 马刺
戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)： 马刺
埃里克·穆迪 (Eric Moody)： 马刺
肯德里克·帕金斯 (Kendrick Perkins)： 雷霆
拉莫娜·谢尔伯恩 (Ramona Shelburne)： 马刺
安德烈·斯内林斯 (André Snellings)： 马刺
马克·J·斯皮尔斯 (Marc J. Spears)： 雷霆
奥姆·永米苏克 (Ohm Youngmisuk)： 马刺
预测结果： 雷霆 7票，马刺 7票
第六战回顾
第六战最让你感到意外的是什么？
克拉姆： 马刺通常不以三分球作为进攻主旋律，但他们在第六战中一反常态，在外线万箭齐发。他们首节的23次出手中有14次是三分球；打完前三节，他们的三分出手占比整整达到了一半（66投33中）。
文班亚马和德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)在开局阶段的手起刀落帮助马刺彻底拉开了进攻空间，这也让雷霆在第六战中自始至终未能取得过一次领先。
第六战最让你觉得在情理之中的是什么？
戈利弗： 文班亚马的强势反弹。在天王山之战（第五战）开局前八分钟一分未得，并缺席了赛后新闻发布会之后，重新专注起来的文班亚马身着一身宰牲节长袍步入球馆，并迅速进入战斗状态。
这位2026年度最佳防守球员在首节便砍下全场最高28分中的11分，半场结束时的得分就已超越了第五战整场的20分。随着文班亚马重现统治力，马刺在第三节轰出一波20-0的超级攻势，彻底将雷霆击溃，完成了一场从头领先到尾的完胜。
本场比赛最亮眼的数据是什么？
戈利弗： 吉尔杰斯-亚历山大依然手感冰凉。除了第三节面对文班亚马防守投进的一记令人印象深刻的底线飘逸中投外，这位两届MVP在第六战的大部分时间里都因自己的低迷发挥而显得懊恼不已。
在常规赛投出创生涯新高的60.2%两分球命中率后，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在西决的两分球命中率暴跌至40.9%，且在六场比赛中有五场投篮命中率不足四成。更不可思议的是，作为一名曾在常规赛连续140场砍下20+的“无情得分机器”，他竟然在过去三场比赛中两度未能突破20分大关。
克拉姆： 哈珀在次轮场均贡献14.7分，并在西决首战中砍下24分。然而，由于受到右侧内收肌伤势的困扰，他在系列赛第三至第五战中总共仅得到18分。
因此，周四哈珀的及时找回状态对马刺而言无疑是巨大的红利。他在22分钟内9投6中高效砍下18分，正负值高达+18。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA playoffs: Spurs-Thunder Game 7 preview, picks, X factors
2026 NBA playoffs: Spurs-Thunder Game 7 preview, picks, X factors
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are going to seven games in the Western Conference finals.
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs – facing elimination in Game 6 in San Antonio – took down the defending NBA champions 118-91, with Wembanyama leading the way with 28 points and 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, meanwhile, struggled, shooting 6-of-18 and putting up just 15 points. Oklahoma City was minus-28 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s 28 minutes on the floor.
The Spurs and Thunder will play Game 7 on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock) in Oklahoma City, with the winner taking on the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals. If the Spurs win, they’d make their first Finals appearance since 2014. If the Thunder win, they’d become the first team to reach consecutive Finals since the Golden State Warriors made five straight from 2015 to 2019. This is now the first conference finals Game 7 between top-three MVP finishers (Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander) since Larry Bird and Julius Erving in 1982.
ESPN NBA reporters and analysts Ben Golliver, Vincent Goodwill, Zach Kram, Tim MacMahon and Michael C. Wright look ahead to Game 7. Plus, our staff makes its picks for what should be an incredible final game in the series:
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Game 7 picks
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Gilgeous-Alexander was ineffective in Game 6. Can the Thunder win Game 7 if he isn’t the best player on the floor?
Golliver: Oklahoma City’s unsung heroes have done more than their fair share in this series, but it’s time for Gilgeous-Alexander to start playing like the MVP.
Although he has been mired in a shooting slump during the Western Conference finals, he came up big in two Game 7 wins at home last season. In the second round, he scored a game-high 35 points to outduel Nikola Jokic and knock out the Denver Nuggets. And, after Tyrese Haliburton was injured in the last game of the Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander brought home the title with a game-high 29 points and 12 assists.
Kram: Role players and schemes and strategic adjustments matter, but sometimes playoff basketball reduces down to a battle between stars. In this series, the Thunder are 3-0 when Gilgeous-Alexander scores at least as many points as Wembanyama, while the Spurs are 3-0 when Wembanyama outscores the two-time MVP. It’s reasonable to expect that trend to continue in Game 7.
Who is the biggest X factor in Game 7?
Golliver: The Spurs were able to generate enough offense in their past two home wins despite De’Aaron Fox’s underwhelming play, but they will need their most experienced guard to rise to the moment on the road.
Fox missed the first two games of the West finals with an ankle injury, and he hasn’t looked fully healthy at any point of the series. The two-time All-Star has played in one previous Game 7, scoring 16 points on 5-for-19 shooting for the Sacramento Kings in a 2023 first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Kram: The Spurs lost Luke Kornet’s minutes in each of the first five games in this series, as the Thunder took advantage of Wembanyama being off the floor to rack up massive margins. But Kornet was plus-13 in 13 minutes in Game 6.
San Antonio has won Wembanyama’s minutes in five of six games in the conference finals, and 13 of 14 full games overall in this playoffs (not counting when he left early due to injury and ejection). If the Spurs are also winning or holding steady when he’s on the bench, a victory is nearly guaranteed.
The Thunder will win Game 7 if ______.
Kram: Their experience shines through. The Spurs have never looked cowed by the moment in this postseason, but Game 7s offer newly heightened stakes. They tend to be tighter and tenser and lower scoring than the average playoff game. With two Game 7 wins last postseason, Oklahoma City knows how to handle those circumstances.
The inexperienced Spurs seizing a Game 7 win on the road, over the defending champs, would be a monumental – but achievable – feat.
The Spurs will win Game 7 if ______.
Golliver: Wembanyama continues to outplay Gilgeous-Alexander, their hot perimeter shooting travels and their guards take better care of the basketball. Still, this will be a tall order: Oklahoma City is 6-1 at home during the 2026 playoffs after going 11-2 at home during last year’s title run. Remarkably, the Thunder’s only loss this year came in double overtime – in Game 1 against the Spurs – and their 2025 losses were both on last-second shots.
Getting the chance to host Game 7 at Paycom Center is why Oklahoma City never let its foot off the gas during the regular season despite a list of injuries to key players. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson should remind his young team that it dealt the Thunder one of their seven home losses during the regular season.
What’s the feeling around the Thunder heading into this game?
MacMahon: Some of the Thunder’s players, including Gilgeous-Alexander, seemed loose, cracking jokes in the locker room only minutes after the lopsided loss.
One can only imagine the frustration Jalen Williams felt after he struggled so mightily in his return after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. But he left the media to guess, slipping out of the locker room while a teammate was talking to reporters to avoid inquiries. It remains to be seen whether coach Mark Daigneault is confident enough in a clearly hampered Williams to rely on him to play a significant role in Game 7.
What’s the feeling around the Spurs heading into this game?
Wright: San Antonio oozes confidence wrought by familiarity through 11 head-to-head matchups between the regular season and the playoffs between the teams. “When we see adversity and our backs are against the wall, we perform,” Stephon Castle said. “Not just performing, playing well, making shots. Our energy is always in the right places. When we’re desperate like that, I’m probably the most confident.”
Now, both teams find themselves in the position to see their seasons come to an end with a loss, and the Spurs find comfort in that position for a road battle to close the series.
“It’s one game,” Julian Champagnie said. “You beat us or we’re going to beat you.”
How would a Game 7 loss affect the Thunder’s offseason ahead?
MacMahon: That might be a question that only Clay Bennett, the franchise’s majority owner, can answer with any certainty. The Thunder’s offseason decisions will primarily come down to Bennett’s financial pain threshold as Oklahoma City enters the deep end of luxury tax territory with the maximum contract extensions for Williams and Chet Holmgren beginning.
Two starters – Luguentz Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein – have team options worth nearly a combined $47 million. Do the Thunder need to defend their title to justify bringing back both of them?
How would a Game 7 loss affect the Spurs’ offseason ahead?
Wright: It would strengthen San Antonio’s resolve to continue building on the unexpected run it embarked on with a roster featuring four core players – Wembanyama, Castle, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant – still on rookie contracts.
The Spurs own four picks in June’s draft, including two in the top 35. Wembanyama will be eligible this offseason to sign the largest rookie extension in NBA history (five years, $251 million). Expect that deal to get done. San Antonio will have money to make moves in free agency but will lean in on developing youngsters such as Castle, Harper and Bryant.
Who should the Knicks be rooting for in Game 7?
Goodwill: The Spurs. The Knicks handled them twice this season, each in impressive fashion. The NBA Cup championship feels eons ago, but it was a game with stakes. Wembanyama, still coming off the bench with a minutes restriction, was minus-18. The Knicks also handed the Spurs a rare post-All Star game beating, defeating them by 25 points on national TV.
If the Thunder emerge from the West finals, no longer shackled by Wembanyama and the Spurs young legs, they could tap into their own urgency. They know title windows don’t last long in today’s NBA and that they’ll have to deal with the Spurs for years to come, so they may feel it’s imperative to get this ring. The Knicks are rolling, won’t be intimidated by either team and will feel like they have a good chance to steal an early road game.
Staff picks: Spurs-Thunder Game 7
David Dennis: Thunder
Ben Golliver: Thunder
Vincent Goodwill: Thunder
Danny Green: Thunder
Baxter Holmes: Thunder
Zach Kram: Spurs
Bobby Marks: Spurs
Dave McMenamin: Spurs
Eric Moody: Spurs
Kendrick Perkins: Thunder
Ramona Shelburne: Spurs
André Snellings: Spurs
Marc J. Spears: Thunder
Ohm Youngmisuk: Spurs
The results: Thunder 7, Spurs 7
Game 6 recap
What surprised you most about Game 6?
Kram: The Spurs don’t typically run their offense through the 3-point line, but they came out firing from deep in Game 6. Fourteen of their 23 first-quarter field goal attempts were 3s, and through three quarters, exactly half of their attempts (33 of 66) came from distance.
Early makes from Wembanyama and Devin Vassell helped open up San Antonio’s offense and prevent the Thunder from ever taking a lead in Game 6.
What surprised you least about Game 6?
Golliver: Wembanyama’s big response. After going scoreless in the first eight minutes of San Antonio’s Game 5 loss and skipping out on his postgame interview, a refocused Wembanyama pulled up to the arena in an Eid al-Adha robe and got straight to work.
The 2026 Defensive Player of the Year scored 11 of his game-high 28 points in the first quarter and exceeded the 20 points he scored in Game 5 by halftime. With Wembanyama back to dominating, San Antonio blew Oklahoma City off the court in the third quarter with a 20-0 run to cruise to the wire-to-wire win.
What stat sticks out most the game?
Golliver: Gilgeous-Alexander still can’t buy a bucket. With the memorable exception of a feathery baseline jumper over Wembanyama in the third quarter, the back-to-back MVP spent most of Game 6 looking annoyed with his subpar play.
After shooting a career-best 60.2% on 2-point attempts during the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander is hitting just 40.9% of those shots in the Western Conference finals and has shot 40% or worse from the field in five of the six games. What’s more, Gilgeous-Alexander, an automatic scorer who has topped 20 points in 140 straight regular-season games and counting, has failed to crack 20 twice in the past three games.
Kram: Harper averaged 14.7 points per game in the second round and scored 24 points in Game 1 of the conference finals. But while dealing with a right adductor injury, he had scored just 18 points total in Games 3 through 5 in this series.
So it was a huge bonus for San Antonio that Harper was back in form Thursday, scoring 18 points on 6-for-9 shooting, with a plus-18 differential in 22 minutes.
By NBA Insiders, via ESPN