By Joel Lorenzi, Dan Woike, Law Murray, Jared Weiss and Jon Krawczynski | The Athletic, 2026-05-16 04:27:37
这是许多 NBA 球迷梦寐以求的对决。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆和圣安东尼奥马刺——这两支拥有全联盟最佳战绩、常规赛共计拿下 126 场胜利的球队——在各自的西部半决赛中都顺利完成了任务。周一，头号种子雷霆和二号种子马刺将打响这场备受期待的系列赛第一战，胜者将代表西部挺进 NBA 总决赛。
俄克拉荷马城在本次季后赛征程中尚未输掉任何一场比赛，他们先是横扫了菲尼克斯太阳，随后又淘汰了洛杉矶湖人。雷霆只有一场比赛的分差在 5 分以内——即在第四场以 115-110 击败勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和湖人并终结系列赛的比赛。现任 NBA MVP 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 在这轮系列赛中表现出色，但雷霆角色球员的发挥才是分区半决赛的主旋律。阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 在顶替受伤的后卫杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 时表现令人印象深刻。切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和以赛亚·哈滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 在内线组成了强大的双塔。吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lu Dort) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 则是攻防两端的催化剂。马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 的球队展现出了比上赛季更深厚的阵容深度。
在经历六场苦战击败明尼苏达森林狼后，圣安东尼奥迎来了他们在 2025-26 赛季曾占据绝对优势的对手。在五场常规赛交锋中，马刺四次击败雷霆——其中三场胜利的分差达到了两位数。自 2017 年以来首次闯入西部决赛的圣安东尼奥，曾在 NBA 杯半决赛中击败俄克拉荷马城，在 12 月 23 日大胜对手 20 分，两天后又在俄克拉荷马城以 15 分优势再次取胜。
NBA 年度最佳防守球员维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 整个赛季都保持着巨星水准，而包括斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)、德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)、朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 以及 NBA 年度最佳第六人凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 在内的年轻核心阵容，也让对手头疼不已。马刺的首发阵容中，只有德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在本届季后赛之前有过季后赛经验。
在整个季后赛过程中，我们对这两支球队有了哪些了解？在这场备受期待的西部决赛中，我们可以期待什么？我们的 NBA 专栏作家们对此展开了讨论。
为什么雷霆和马刺能赢下半决赛？
Joel Lorenzi 谈雷霆： 尽管詹姆斯和雷迪克在各自的领域表现出色，但湖人无法针对深度制定战术。雷霆的进攻一波接一波。当以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 手感不佳时，贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 可能会站出来。当吉尔杰斯-亚历山大遭遇职业生涯前所未见的包夹频率时，米切尔突然扛起了进攻。哈滕施泰因在关键的第四场比赛中正负值达到了 +30。霍姆格伦在整个季后赛期间，在合理冲撞区的投篮仅失手一次。
雷霆有太多的应对方案，甚至在对阵湖人的系列赛中发现了新的闪光点。米切尔的崛起抵消了马刺强大且深厚的后卫群优势——尤其是如果威廉姆斯也能伤愈复出的情况下。雷霆此前缺少另一名组织者和另一名全能射手，而他们在上一轮同时找到了这两者。
Dan Woike 谈雷霆： 雷霆是一台建立在适应能力之上的篮球机器。虽然湖人阵容严重残缺（他们的整个篮球体系是围绕卢卡·东契奇构建的），但他们确实迫使雷霆做出了调整。湖人的整个比赛计划就是迫使吉尔杰斯-亚历山大以外的球员去处理球，而每个人在某个时刻都做到了。
雷霆确实比湖人更强。他们不需要发挥出 A+ 级别的水平就能取胜。但他们始终表现出的一点是，这是一个彼此信任、敢于在关键时刻出手并完成关键表现的团队。
Law Murray 谈雷霆： 简单来说，雷霆在对阵湖人时得分太轻松了。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大吸引了湖人战术和人员的全部注意力。威廉姆斯缺席了整个系列赛，雷霆每百回合仍能得到 125.4 分。作为参考，丹佛掘金在常规赛中以每百回合 121.2 分领跑全联盟。
俄克拉荷马城非常清楚该针对谁，并且整个系列赛在进攻端都打得顺风顺水——这种情况在西部决赛或 NBA 总决赛中可能不会再如此轻易发生了。
Jared Weiss 谈马刺： 马刺的后卫线表现实际上可能是森林狼系列赛中的关键变量。卡斯尔始终是球队需要的第二球星，而福克斯和哈珀则能提供足够的转换进攻得分来维持局面。文班亚马在这一年里的表现非常稳定，让人期待他能在攻防两端接管大多数比赛。他在对阵明尼苏达时的进攻表现处于他所设定标准的高位，尽管他在第四场比赛中因肘击纳兹·里德而被驱逐，犯了一个严重的判断错误。事实证明，他的防守几乎可以应对任何对位。
但卡斯尔的表现尤为突出，他在担任得分手和组织者时保持了高效，同时在系列赛的大部分时间里都在限制朱利叶斯·兰德尔或盯防安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)。哈珀在进攻端偶尔能瞬间改变比赛走势，他的防守压力让马刺能够进行大量的半场夹击，从而迫使爱德华兹出球。
Jon Krawczynski 谈马刺： 文班亚马在进攻端的首场表现有些波动，但从那以后他统治了整个系列赛。森林狼唯一能喘息的机会就是文班在第四场第二节被驱逐的时候。他在防守端简直是个恐怖的存在，将森林狼球员挡在篮筐之外，迫使他们进行仓促且艰难的投篮。
在进攻端，他戏耍了鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，后者在首轮与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 的对决中占据了上风。由于爱德华兹受到膝伤限制，文班亚马成为了系列赛中表现最好的球员，这也是马刺能够晋级的原因。
圣安东尼奥马刺需要找到限制俄克拉荷马城雷霆谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大（2号）的方法，他是现任 NBA MVP。(Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)
关于雷霆和马刺，我们学到了哪些可以延续到下一轮的东西？他们在分区决赛中的对位情况如何？
Lorenzi： 湖人专门安排的包夹是吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在季后赛中从未见过的。这促使他更多地信任身边的队友，而那种身体对抗强度也让他为面对马刺和卡斯尔的防守做好了准备。尽管吉尔杰斯-亚历山大已经明白何时出球以及何时寻找自己的投篮点，但他似乎不想再在那样的防守强度下妥协。周五，有人看到他在训练中专门练习如何摆脱纠缠，并应对雷霆录像剪辑师的贴身防守。湖人防守他的方式最终影响了他，我猜这也影响了马刺录像室的一些关注重点。
Woike： 我们学到的最重要的一点是，如果你想赢得 NBA 总冠军，你必须跻身顶级行列。这两支球队现在的实力如此强大，以至于人们可能会忘记他们未来的潜力有多大。
从更直接的角度来看，我认为马刺可以借鉴湖人的做法，将防守重心向吉尔杰斯-亚历山大倾斜，并依靠他们在轮转防守中的运动能力。我也认为雷霆可以利用他们的经验寻找优势并加以利用，同时努力迫使圣安东尼奥那些不擅长投射的球员在三分线外做决定。
Murray： 雷霆不会惊慌失措。他们会理解对方的防守策略，判断谁的手感正热，要么扩大领先优势，要么保持冷静，直到他们能用标志性的进攻高潮击溃对手。
马刺给雷霆带来的挑战在于他们拥有顶级的护筐能力，这是太阳、尤其是湖人完全不具备的。雷霆需要保持半决赛中那种火热的投射，因为罚球和冲击篮下将会变得更加困难。
Weiss： 也许是文班亚马让一切变得简单，但米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 和马刺教练组在对阵森林狼时的对位和战术选择上做得很好。他们针对爱德华兹的夹击和回位策略非常有效，并且在轮转防守模式下很好地避免了错误。虽然他们也有过无法防住爱德华兹和特伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.) 的时刻，在单打中被击败或被森林狼的大个子在弱侧偷袭。
但总的来说，文班亚马证明了他的选位和沟通能力非常出色，后卫和侧翼可以放心地进行侵略性防守，而不必担心付出惨重代价。当威廉姆斯下场休息时，雷霆应该会对吉尔杰斯-亚历山大进行大量的夹击。圣安东尼奥更大的担忧在于他们能否避免陷入犯规麻烦。
Krawczynski： 这支年轻的马刺已经为大场面做好了准备。此前人们有理由质疑文班亚马、哈珀、卡斯尔和瓦塞尔是否需要在真正赢球前在季后赛中交点学费，就像之前的许多年轻球星一样。相反，这些年轻运动员正在给他们的对手制造麻烦。他们身材高大、强壮、充满渴望，也许最重要的一点是，他们拥有极高的篮球智商。
在对阵季后赛经验丰富的森林狼时，马刺是那支执行战术更精准、更有纪律性的球队。约翰逊和副主教练、防守协调员肖恩·斯威尼 (Sean Sweeney) 制定了出色的比赛计划，球员们在整个系列赛中严格执行，最终扼杀了森林狼。
随着比赛的进行，你对雷霆和马刺的哪些方面保持密切关注？
Lorenzi： 阿杰·米切尔与杰伦·威廉姆斯的互动。理论上，他们的存在应该让彼此打得更轻松。是的，圣安东尼奥会将米切尔在球探报告中的位置上移，但在那之前，他们必须决定如何应对威廉姆斯。
米切尔的崛起进一步解放了威廉姆斯，让他成为一名无球得分手，减轻了他作为持球组织者的负担，给了他更健康的平衡。最强版本的威廉姆斯在进攻端应该是多才多艺的，他可以在组织和终结之间切换，并将一半——甚至更多——的精力投入到防守破坏中。
Woike： 我选一个比较奇怪的角度：多尔特的表现如何？他看起来是不可或缺的吗？通常来说，我最大的抱怨之一是我们更多地通过交易而不是竞争来看待篮球，但今年夏天雷霆确实面临关于多尔特及其 1820 万美元球队选项的重大决策。
如果马刺能通过迫使多尔特运球/传球来让他无法留在场上，而雷霆依然能挺住，那么雷霆的决定可能会变得非常简单。
Murray： 对米切尔的关注度增加会如何影响两支球队？湖人对吉尔杰斯-亚历山大倾其所有，而雷霆轻松化解。雷霆的下一个对手不应该对吉尔杰斯-亚历山大做出如此程度的过度反应，这也会改变米切尔的发挥空间。
他在球探报告中的排名会上升。现在已经有大量他爆发的录像，没有任何理由不去熟悉这位二年级左手将的球风。
Weiss： 这个系列赛的 X 因素是霍姆格伦和他的进攻。文班亚马在防守端几乎无视了他的投篮，并在三分线内将其彻底限制，这让圣安东尼奥在很大程度上遏制了雷霆的突破。此外，当霍姆格伦表现挣扎时，文班似乎能从中获得动力，所以雷霆不能让他太兴奋并开始尝试在人头上扣篮。
霍姆格伦能否成为一名可靠的射手并将文班亚马拉出禁区，或者迫使马刺打伪联防？如果文班能镇守篮下，马刺就会赢；如果他不能，马刺就会输。就这么简单。
Krawczynski： 谁能赢得这场博弈？如上所述，马刺教练组在第二轮表现出色。现在他们面对的是戴格诺特，联盟中最好的战术家之一，以及一支从不犯错的雷霆队。马刺将无法依靠森林狼在系列赛中犯下的一些错误来发动反击。他们必须全力以赴赢下每一分钟才能拿下这轮系列赛。
我们在常规赛中看到马刺做到过，但季后赛有着更高的紧迫感和对细节的关注。雷霆非常有纪律，每位球员都理解自己的角色且不偏离。马刺必须同样专注和严谨。
这一轮系列赛后，你如何看待雷霆或马刺的夺冠前景？
Lorenzi： 并不是说他们的胜算翻倍了什么的，但雷霆在进入第二轮时就是热门，并且完成了任务。观众对他们的信心至少应该比进入季后赛前更高一些。这轮系列赛的胜者——本周有人向我建议，这可能是自 2018 年金州勇士和休斯顿火箭以来最受期待的系列赛——很可能就是总冠军。
Woike： NBA 中没有比雷霆更好的球队了。十月份是这样，今天也是。
Murray： 我在十月份就说过雷霆是我预期的夺冠球队。到目前为止，他们的季后赛征程没有给我任何理由改变这一想法。但他们需要杰伦·威廉姆斯回归。虽然雷霆在胜负结果上还没有因为他的缺席而受到惩罚，但这很棒，但雷霆需要全员齐心协力。
Weiss： 毫无疑问，这两支球队是夺冠的两大热门。他们拥有广泛的进攻选择、鲜明的防守身份，以及仅剩的两位能整晚吸引双人甚至三人包夹的球员。整个赛季以来，他们一直是联盟中遥遥领先的最强球队，现在这一点也没有改变。
Krawczynski： 还有什么理由不爱他们呢？马刺拥有一个掌控攻防两端的“外星人”；卡斯尔、瓦塞尔、哈珀和福克斯这四名侧翼防守者可以在外线跟上雷霆的后卫；此外，约翰逊、布莱恩特、卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 和哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 提供了足够的深度，可以随着系列赛的演变进行调整。是的，他们很年轻，但他们打得很成熟。他们渴望胜利，而且绝对有能力夺冠。
对雷霆-马刺系列赛的预测及理由？
Lorenzi： 我假设威廉姆斯已经为第一场比赛做好了准备。如果他在第三场左右回归，我认为会打满七场。马刺是来真格的。我不确定没有杰伦·威廉姆斯的雷霆能否取胜。雷霆 4-2 晋级
Woike： 我认为马刺拥有独特的优势，可以将俄克拉荷马城逼入绝境，但经验和投射能力应该会胜出，而我在两方面都更信任雷霆。雷霆 4-3 晋级
Murray： 我认为这个系列赛会打到最后，俄克拉荷马城赢得抢七。 看看休息时间能否让威廉姆斯找回状态会很有趣。但雷霆本希望森林狼能晋级——不仅是因为雷霆可以面对一个刚打完抢七的对手，还因为森林狼是一个熟悉的、且并非全盛状态的季后赛对手。
马刺凭借这套核心阵容打到这一步已经是“稳赚不赔”，而且本赛季四次击败雷霆给了他们充足的信心。最终，我预计雷霆会有一套限制文班亚马的计划，就像他们去年在半决赛中限制约基奇那样。
Weiss： 马刺 4-3 晋级。 实际上我在第六场比赛期间改变了这个答案，当时马刺彻底终结了森林狼。这并不是因为马刺在重大时刻展现出了极佳的投射能力这种近因偏差，而是因为他们彻底摧毁了森林狼的体系，而这在几天前似乎还是个巨大的挑战。雷霆可以达到一种坚韧和精准的高度，使他们成为联盟最强的球队，但他们并非不可战胜，马刺在 12 月那段短暂但令人难忘的时间里证明了这一点。随着六月的临近，如果威廉姆斯看起来恢复了状态，这两支球队之间就没有明显的差距。这是一个巨大的假设，足以给这支马刺队提供极其微弱的优势。
这轮系列赛可能会取决于球员的出勤情况，尽管马刺的一个巨大未知数是文班亚马如何应对对阵俄克拉荷马城时每场比赛比常规赛多打 10 分钟的情况。到目前为止，他在季后赛中很好地应对了出场时间负荷，但雷霆在防守端能比任何人都更能调动他。
这个预测就像抛硬币，我喜欢雷霆没有那种会被轻易击败的防守者，并且目前有三个可以依靠的主要组织者。特别是，他们通过协防干扰文班亚马运球的能力将达到他从未面对过的水平。他们拥有的选择比明尼苏达多得多，这可能刚好足以耗死马刺。
但圣安东尼奥现在的状态非常好，看到他们 4-2 赢下比赛也不会令人惊讶。如果马刺能投篮准，德阿隆·福克斯能打出几场爆发的表现，文班亚马能统治禁区，那么雷霆有多强可能并不重要。
Krawczynski： 这个系列赛将是一场视觉盛宴。这两支球队互不喜欢，他们会拼个你死我活。最终，我认为文班亚马在攻防两端的伟大表现将刚好足够——但我肯定不会把赌注全压在上面。马刺 4-3 晋级。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Spurs vs. Thunder preview: The rivalry that could define the NBA’s future is here
Spurs vs. Thunder preview: The rivalry that could define the NBA’s future is here
It’s the matchup many NBA fans wanted.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs — the two NBA teams with the best records, 126 regular-season wins between them — took care of business in their respective Western Conference semifinal series. Monday, the top-seeded Thunder and the second-seeded Spurs will tip off in Game 1 of a much-anticipated series to determine the West’s representative for the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City hasn’t dropped a playoff game this run, first sweeping the Phoenix Suns, then taking out the Los Angeles Lakers. Only one of the Thunder’s games have been decided by five points or fewer — a 115-110 Game 4 win to close out LeBron James and the Lakers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning NBA MVP, had a good series, but the play of the Thunder’s supporting cast was the story in their conference semifinal. Ajay Mitchell was impressive in place of injured guard Jalen Williams. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein made a formidable duo inside. Lu Dort and Alex Caruso were two-way catalysts. Mark Daigneault’s group showed it may be even deeper than last season.
After a hard-fought six-game series victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio gets the opponent it actually dominated during the 2025-26 season. In five regular-season games, the Spurs beat the Thunder four times — and three of those wins were by double digits. San Antonio, which advanced to the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2017, beat Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup semifinals, crushed them by 20 points on Dec. 23, then beat the Thunder by 15 in Oklahoma City two days later.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama has been a superstar all season long, while a young core including Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Dylan Harper and NBA Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson has given opponents fits. The Spurs have only one starter, De’Aaron Fox, who competed in a playoff game prior to this postseason.
What have we learned about these teams throughout the playoffs, and what can we expect from an anticipated Western Conference finals? Our NBA writers discuss.
Why did the Thunder and Spurs win their semifinal series?
Joel Lorenzi on the Thunder: The Lakers, as impressive as LeBron and JJ Redick were in their respective rights, could not scheme for depth. The Thunder pounce in waves. When Isaiah Joe isn’t on, Jared McCain probably is. When SGA is being doubled at a frequency unseen in his postseason career, Mitchell is suddenly shouldering the offense. Hartenstein was a plus-30 in Game 4, a clutch game. Holmgren has missed one shot in the restricted area all postseason.
There were so many answers that new ones were discovered in the series against the Lakers. Mitchell’s emergence nullifies the Spurs’ potent, deep guard play — especially if Williams returns from injury as well. The Thunder were missing another creator and another versatile shooter. They uncovered both last round.
Dan Woike on the Thunder: The Thunder are a basketball machine built on adaptability. And while the Lakers were incredibly short-handed (their entire basketball identity is built round Luka Dončić), they made the Thunder adapt. The entire game plan was built on forcing players other than Gilgeous-Alexander to make plays, and everyone, for at least one moment or another, did.
They were the better team than the Lakers, sure. They didn’t need to hit their A-plus levels to win. But what they did, consistently, was show that they were a group comfortable trusting one another to take the big shots and make the important plays.
Law Murray on the Thunder: Simply put, it was so easy for the Thunder to score against the Lakers. Gilgeous-Alexander absorbed the attention of the Lakers’ scheme and personnel. Williams was out for the entire series, and the Thunder still scored 125.4 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Denver Nuggets led the NBA in the regular season with 121.2 points per 100 possessions.
Oklahoma City knew who to target, and they enjoyed success offensively all series long — something that may not happen in the Western Conference final or the NBA Finals to this degree.
Jared Weiss on the Spurs: The Spurs’ guard play may actually have been the swing factor in the Timberwolves series. Castle was consistently the second star the team needed, while Fox and Harper were able to supply enough transition scoring to keep the team afloat. Wembanyama has been consistent enough this calendar year to set the expectation that he could take over most games on both ends. His play against Minnesota offensively was toward the higher end of the standard he has set, even if he made a critical error of judgement in elbowing Naz Reid to get ejected from Game 4. His defense turned out to be pretty much matchup-proof.
But Castle stood out, as he continued to be efficient as a scorer and a playmaker while spending most of the series neutralizing Julius Randle or picking up Anthony Edwards. Harper flipped games offensively in quick flashes, and his defensive pressure allowed the Spurs to do a lot of half-court trapping in an effort to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands.
Jon Krawczynski on the Spurs: Wembanyama had a shaky first game from an offensive standpoint, but he dominated the series from then on. The only time the Wolves had a chance to breathe was when he was ejected in the second quarter of Game 4. He was a terror on defense, pushing the Wolves away from the rim and forcing hurried, difficult shots.
On offense, he toyed with Rudy Gobert, who won his matchup with Nikola Jokić in the first round. With Edwards limited by knee injuries, Wembanyama was the best player in the series, and that’s why the Spurs are moving on.
San Antonio will need to find a way to contain Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2), the reigning NBA MVP. (Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)
What did we learn about the Thunder and Spurs that can carry forward to the next series? How do they match up in the conference finals?
Lorenzi: The Lakers’ dedicated double-teams were unlike anything Gilgeous-Alexander has seen in the playoffs. It helped him defer to his surrounding depth, and the level of physicality prepared him for what he might face from the Spurs and Castle. As much as Gilgeous-Alexander came to understand when to get off the ball and when to seek his spots, it doesn’t seem like he wants to settle under that level of resistance again. On Friday, he was seen at practice working on fighting through tie-ups and being face-guarded by the Thunder’s video coordinators. The way the Lakers defended him ultimately influenced him, and I imagine it influenced some of the focus in the Spurs’ film room.
Woike: The biggest thing we learned is if you’re trying to win a NBA championship, you need to get on the Atlantic seaboard. These teams are so good in the present that it’s possible to forget about how good they’re going to be in the future.
In a more immediate sense, I think the Spurs can steal from the Lakers in tilting their defense towards Gilgeous-Alexander and relying on their athleticism in scrambles. I also think the Thunder can use their experience to find advantages and exploit them while trying to force San Antonio’s non-shooters into decisions on the perimeter.
Murray: The Thunder aren’t going to panic. They will understand how they’re being defended, diagnose who has it going and either extend leads or stay poised until they can hit a team with one of those patented runs.
The challenge the Spurs present to the Thunder is that they have premier rim protection, something the Suns and, especially, the Lakers absolutely didn’t have. The Thunder are going to need to keep their flammable shooting from the semifinals going, because free throws and the paint are going to be harder to access.
Weiss: Maybe Wembanyama just makes it easy, but Mitch Johnson and the Spurs coaching staff did a good job with their matchup and schematic choices against the Wolves. Their trap-and-recover schemes against Edwards were effective, and they were good at avoiding mistakes when they were in scramble mode. They had some moments when they couldn’t guard their yard against Edwards and Terrence Shannon Jr., getting beat in isolation or killed on the backside by the Wolves’ bigs.
But overall, Wembanyama proved to be so good with his positioning and communication that the guards and wings were free to defend aggressively without worrying about paying a steep price. There should be plenty of traps on SGA when Williams is on the bench. The bigger concern for San Antonio is whether they can stay out of foul trouble.
Krawczynski: These young Spurs are ready for the moment. There were reasonable questions if Wembanyama, Harper, Castle and Vassell needed to take their lumps in the playoffs before they were really ready to win, as so many young stars have before them. Instead, these young athletes are delivering lumps to their opponents. They are big, strong, hungry and, perhaps most important of all, have a high basketball IQ.
They were the team that executed their game plan with more precision and discipline in their series against the Timberwolves, who had far more playoff experience. Johnson and associate head coach Sean Sweeney, the defensive coordinator, put together an excellent game plan, and the players adhered to it throughout the series to snuff out the Wolves.
What are you watching closely about the Thunder and Spurs as they move forward?
Lorenzi: The Ajay Mitchell-Jalen Williams dynamic. Their presences should, in theory, make each other’s lives easier. Yes, San Antonio will move Mitchell higher up the scouting report, but not before they decide what to do with Williams.
Mitchell’s emergence further unlocks Williams as an off-ball scorer and lessens his load as an on-ball creator, giving him a healthier balance. The best version of Williams is a mixed bag of plays on offense, when he can toggle between playmaking and play finishing, and spend half — if not more — of his energy as a defensive disruptor.
Woike: I’ll pick a weird one: How does Dort look? Like he’s indispensable? One of my biggest gripes, generally speaking, is that we view basketball more through transactions and less through competition, but it sure seems like the Thunder have a BIG decision to make in regards to Dort this summer and his $18.2 million team option.
If the Spurs can play him off the court by forcing him to dribble/pass and the Thunder can survive, it might make their decision pretty easy for them.
Murray: How does increased attention on Mitchell affect both teams? The Lakers threw the kitchen sink at Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder washed their dishes. The next Thunder opponents shouldn’t need to overreact to Gilgeous-Alexander to that degree, and that will also change how Mitchell can proceed.
He’s going to rise up scouting reports. There’s plenty of highly flammable tape that there is no excuse to be unfamiliar with the sophomore southpaw’s game.
Weiss: The X-factor of this series is Holmgren and his offense. Wembanyama pretty much ignored him as a shooter and ate him up inside the 3-point line, which allowed San Antonio to contain the Thunder’s downhill action, for the most part. Also, Wembanyama runs off pure schadenfreude when Holmgren struggles, so the Thunder can’t let him get too jacked up and start trying to dunk on people.
Can Holmgren be a knockdown shooter and pull Wembanyama out of the paint, or force the Spurs to play a pseudo zone? The Spurs will win if Wemby can camp by the rim and lose if he can’t. Simple as that.
Krawczynski: Who wins the chess match? As stated above, the Spurs coaching staff was excellent in the second round. Now they face Daigneault, one of the best tacticians in the game, and a Thunder team that never beats itself. The Spurs will not be able to rely on some of the mistakes the Timberwolves committed to fuel their runs. They are going to have to go out and win every minute to take this series.
We have seen the Spurs do it in the regular season, but the playoffs have a heightened sense of urgency and attention to detail. The Thunder are so disciplined. Every player understands his role and doesn’t deviate from it. The Spurs will have to be just as focused and exacting.
How do you feel about the Thunder’s or Spurs’ title chances after this series?
Lorenzi: Not like their odds double or anything, but the Thunder were a favorite entering the second round and handled business. Spectators should be at least a little more confident in them than they were entering these playoffs. The winner of this series — which someone suggested to me this week as perhaps the most anticipated series since the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets in 2018 — is likely the champion.
Woike: There isn’t a better team in the NBA than the Thunder. Was true in October. Is true today.
Murray: I said the Thunder were the team I expected to win the championship back in October. Nothing about their playoff run so far has given me a reason to change my thought on that. But they’re going to need Jalen Williams back. It’s great that the Thunder haven’t missed him in terms of wins and (not) losses, but the Thunder are going to need all hands on deck.
Weiss: These are the two favorites to win it, easily. They have wide-ranging offensive options, a clear defensive identity and the only two players left who will command double- and triple-teams all night long. These have been far and away the best teams in the league all season, and nothing has changed now.
Krawczynski: What’s not to love? The Spurs have an alien who controls both ends of the court; four wing defenders in Castle, Vassell, Harper and Fox who can stay in front of Thunder guards on the perimeter; and enough depth with Johnson, Bryant, Luke Kornet and Harrison Barnes to adapt as the series evolves. Yes, they are young, but they play a mature game. They want it, and they can absolutely take it.
Prediction for Thunder-Spurs and why?
Lorenzi: I’ll go under the assumption that Williams is ready for Game 1. If he returns by, say, Game 3, I think it’ll go seven games. The Spurs are real. I’m not sure the Thunder can win without Jalen Williams. Thunder in 6
Woike: I think the Spurs are uniquely positioned to push Oklahoma City to its limits, but experience and shotmaking should win out, and I trust the Thunder more in both areas. Thunder in 7
Murray: I’m going to say this series goes the distance, with Oklahoma City winning a Game 7. It will be interesting to see if the time off gets Williams up to speed. But the Thunder would have appreciated the Timberwolves coming through — not just so that the Thunder get an opponent coming off a Game 7, but because the Timberwolves are a familiar playoff opponent that isn’t at full strength.
The Spurs are playing with house money getting to this point with this core, and they have all the confidence that comes with beating the Thunder four times this season. Ultimately, I expect the Thunder to have a plan to limit Wembanyama the same way they contained Jokić in the semifinals last year.
Weiss: Spurs in 7. I actually changed this answer during Game 6, when the Spurs completely slammed the door on the Timberwolves. It wasn’t the recency bias that the Spurs showed they can have a great shooting night in a big moment, but the way they completely buried the Wolves’ identity in a way that seemed like a massive challenge a few days ago. The Thunder can reach a level of tenacity and precision that makes them the best team in the league, but they aren’t invincible and the Spurs proved that this year in a short, but unforgettable window in December. As we approach June, there is no discernable gap between these two teams if Williams looks close to himself. That’s a huge if, enough to give this version of the Spurs the slightest edge imaginable.
This series will probably come down to availability, though the one big unknown for the Spurs is how Wembanyama handles playing essentially 10 more minutes per game against Oklahoma City than he did in the regular season. He has handled the minutes load well so far in the playoffs but the Thunder can make him move around defensively more than anyone.
This is a coin toss for a prediction, and I like the fact that the Thunder don’t have defenders to roll over and have three primary creators they can count on right now. Particularly, their ability to get into Wembanyama’s dribble with gap help is going to be at a different level than anything he’s faced before. They just have so many more options than Minnesota and that may be just enough to outlast the Spurs.
But San Antonio is playing so well that it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win this in 6. If the Spurs can shoot well, De’Aaron Fox can have some big games and Wembanyama can own the paint, it may not matter how good the Thunder are.
Krawczynski: What a treat this series is going to be. These two teams do not like each other. They will tear each other limb from limb. Ultimately, I think Wembanyama’s two-way greatness will be just enough — but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Spurs in 7.
By Joel Lorenzi, Dan Woike, Law Murray, Jared Weiss and Jon Krawczynski, via The Athletic