By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-17 23:22:44
这一刻终究还是来了。自从圣安东尼奥马刺通过在常规赛统治俄克拉荷马城雷霆而成为名副其实的争冠球队后，两队似乎注定要在西部决赛相遇。这两支年轻的球队将在各自 MVP 候选人的带领下统治西部多年，而他们的第一场重要战役比预想中来得更早。
雷霆队是更被看好的一方。作为卫冕冠军，他们是常规赛表现最好的球队，季后赛前两轮打得游刃有余，并且拥有经验优势。压力将在他们这边，但他们知道如何应对。
任何其他第一次在季后赛走得这么远的对手可能会对这种大场面感到畏惧，但马刺这支缺乏经验的团队却拥有一种罕见的自信，并已证明他们能够应对雷霆以及争冠带来的高期望。这应该是两支球队之间一个梦幻般的系列赛，在可预见的未来，他们都将是彼此夺冠之路上的拦路虎。
进攻端节奏是关键，但马刺必须避免失误
雷霆拥有一流的防守，既能制造混乱，也能在阵地战中让对手陷入泥潭。关于他们在防守外线时被允许的身体对抗强度，已经有很多报道了，而且他们几乎没有可以利用的防守弱点。内线也是如此，切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 就像是“凡间版”的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，而以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 则提供了稳如磐石的中锋表现。
要对付一支擅长通过挫败对手、诱导失误并将其转化为转换进攻机会的球队，最好的办法就是打出足够快的节奏以避开其落位防守，同时限制失误。这也是马刺在常规赛能持续击败他们的部分原因：他们很大程度上阻止了雷霆习惯性打出的进攻高潮。在对阵一支季后赛场均造成对手超过 17 次失误并利用失误得到近 23 分（与常规赛数据相似）的球队时，圣安东尼奥仅出现了 12.4 次失误，且只让对手通过失误得到 12.4 分。
至于阵地战，考虑到马刺的进攻体系相对基础，他们的效率高得令人惊讶。天赋弥补了战术复杂性的不足，希望银黑军团能找到合适的对位进行针对。后卫群在常规赛表现出色，圣安东尼奥若想取胜，他们需要再次打出这种表现。达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 的发挥可能比平时更加重要，因为他可以用急停跳投在进攻停滞时强行解围。投手们在出现空位时需要毫不犹豫地出手，因为投篮窗口会转瞬即逝，而在面对雷霆时，如果没有娴熟的控运就贸然运球突破，简直是自找麻烦。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 在常规赛并不畏惧挑战霍姆格伦，他需要继续保持这种侵略性。果断将是关键，要尽可能让每一次进攻都以投篮结束。
在对位方面，看看马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 如何处理防守斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和文班亚马的任务将非常有趣。如果雷霆继续派上双塔首发，其中一人就必须去防守外线球员，而卡斯尔一直是其他对手的首选目标。随着卡斯尔投篮手感的提升，这种情况可能会改变，但雷霆也没有更好的选择。至于文班，俄克拉荷马城经常用小个子球员去防他。他们会坚持这一策略，还是尝试让首发双塔中的一人或杰林·威廉姆斯 (Jaylin Williams) 来接手这个任务？
马刺需要通过掩护换防不断给对方防线施压，直到出现理想的对位，然后利用这种优势进行单打或迅速找到空位队友。在没有快攻机会时，纪律性、耐心和出色的执行力将是必不可少的。
防守端，细节与限制 SGA 同样重要
看雷霆的成功，不可能不将其很大一部分归功于这位现任且极有可能蝉联的 MVP 在进攻端的贡献。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 是联盟中最轻松的得分手，也是雷霆偶尔陷入阵地战僵局时的救世主。当他们无法跑起来进攻且球找不到空位球员时，他们只需把球交给谢伊，看着他通过中距离跳投或突破上篮、造犯规来解决问题。如果不至少限制住他，很难击败雷霆。
尽管马刺在常规赛对阵雷霆战绩占优，但他们并没有真正防住 SGA，他场均以 50% 的命中率砍下 29.5 分和 5.5 次助攻，数据仅比他对阵全联盟其他球队时略逊一筹。但马刺也没有让他彻底爆发，这已经是防守者所能要求的极限了。米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 在那些比赛中给了他不同的防守策略，但在这个系列赛中，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔很可能会承担这个任务。经常受到犯规困扰的卡斯尔需要保持冷静，避免频繁把 SGA 送上罚球线。马刺肯定会使用一些包夹和陷阱防守，但雷霆的武器库比明尼苏达森林狼更丰富，因此必须有选择性地施加压力。
虽然防止 SGA 接管比赛是赢得系列赛的先决条件，但马刺不能像上一轮对阵安东尼奥·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和森林狼时那样过度关注这一点。他们还需要处理好细节。如前所述，没有哪支球队比雷霆更擅长利用对手的失误。在没有明显优势时，他们通常打得很慢，但一旦出现活球失误，他们就会全速冲刺。他们是一支进攻篮板较弱的球队，而马刺擅长保护后场篮板，但雷霆可以排出高大阵容。圣安东尼奥不能在篮板球上掉以轻心，否则这会给这支致命的进攻球队更多二次进攻的机会。
轮转也必须保持敏锐。与马刺类似，雷霆的进攻引擎是突破。他们在季后赛的篮下命中率高达 75%，如果米奇·约翰逊选择让文班亚马始终处于协防位置，这个数字应该会大幅下降，但有时雷霆的突破会吸引两名防守者。如果他们的持球者在杀入油漆区后找到了投手，圣安东尼奥需要瞬间决定是积极扑防（冒着被二次突破的风险），还是放对手一个半干扰的投篮。尤其是文班，在守区域防守和盯防底角时，他必须比有时表现得更有纪律性。虽然听起来有悖直觉，但有时让一个还算不错但不够稳定的投手出手，也比不断陷入轮转补位要好。马刺很清楚这一点，因为他们在常规赛对阵雷霆时经常这么做。
雷霆会得分。SGA 会拿到他的分数，他们也会创造出好的投篮机会。他们现在的持球创造力比过去更强，并且拥有终结者。马刺能做的就是通过不给他们轻松的转换得分或额外的进攻回合，并尽力确保由对方效率最低的得分手来出手，从而让比赛变得尽可能艰难。
预测：雷霆抢七胜出
马刺似乎是唯一一支现实中能击败雷霆的球队。他们确实有机会，但雷霆有一个巨大的优势：他们是一支更加全能的球队。
圣安东尼奥现在的处境就像是得到亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 和哈尔滕施泰因之前的俄克拉荷马城。天赋已经到位，但适应能力和深度还没有那么成熟。雷霆可以打大阵容也可以打小阵容。他们有高大强壮的外线防守者，也有更小、更灵活的后卫。如果后场或侧翼有人表现挣扎，他们可以派上亚伦·威金斯 (Aaron Wiggins) 和以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 这样的人，这些人在其他球队都能稳坐轮换。与此同时，马刺虽然拥有强大的前八人轮换，但在双塔阵容的磨合上一直很挣扎，替补席上严重依赖一名新秀，而两名存在明显问题的前锋则是他们的潜在第九人。
如果系列赛打得很长且比分胶着，雷霆似乎准备得更充分，能够做出调整或找到一个意想不到的奇兵来获得优势。另一方面，马刺最好的机会似乎是在早期就凭借天赋压制雷霆，并在对方陷入绝境前绝不松手，迫使对方为了生存而做出调整，而不是为了占据上风。
这应该是一个有趣的系列赛，也是一段长期宿敌关系的开始。希望马刺能在这一系列季后赛对决的第一场中找到取胜之道，但这绝非易事。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series preview
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series preview
It was meant to happen. The Spurs and Thunder seemed destined to meet in the Western Conference Finals once San Antonio became a bona fide contender, in part by dominating Oklahoma City in the regular season. The two young teams are set to rule the conference for years, led by their MVP candidates, and will have their first important battle sooner than expected.
The Thunder are the favorites. The defending champions were the best team in the regular season, cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs, and have the experience advantage. The pressure will be on them, but they know how to handle it.
Any other opponent on their first deep playoff run might be scared of the moment, but the Spurs have a rare level of confidence for such an inexperienced group and have proved that they can handle the Thunder and the high expectations that come with contention. It should be a fantastic series between two teams that could be in each other’s way on the road to a championship for the foreseeable future.
Pace will be key on offense, but the Spurs must avoid mistakes
The Thunder have a terrific defense that can be equally effective at creating chaos and mucking things up in the half-court. Much has been written about the physicality of the way they are allowed to play in the perimeter, and there are few weak links to exploit. The same is true inside, where Chet Holmgren plays as a terrestrial version of Victor Wembanyama and Isaiah Hartenstein provides rock-solid center play.
The best way to flip the script on a team that frustrates opponents into mistakes that can then be converted into transition opportunities is to play fast enough to avoid their set defense while limiting turnovers. It’s in part why the Spurs beat them consistently in the regular season: they largely prevented the big runs OKC typically makes. San Antonio only coughed up the ball 12.4 times and allowed 12.4 points off turnovers to a team that has averaged over 17 turnovers caused per game and almost 23 points resulting from them during this playoff run, similar numbers to those from the regular season.
As for the halfcourt, the Spurs are surprisingly effective considering how rudimentary their offense is. Talent makes up for a lack of complexity, and the hope is the Silver and Black will find the right matchups to exploit. The guards thrived during the regular season and will need to do so again for San Antonio to have a chance. De’Aaron Fox’s play in particular could be even more important than usual, as he can bail out possessions with his pull-up jumper. The shooters will need to fire away without hesitation when open because the window to do so will shut down quickly, and putting the ball on the floor without a tight handle is asking for trouble against the Thunder. Keldon Johnson was not scared of attacking Holmgren in the regular season and will need to continue doing so. Decisiveness will be key, as many possessions as possible need to end in a shot.
As for matchups, it will be interesting to see how Mark Daigneault handles the Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama assignments. If the Thunder continue to start two bigs, one of them will have to be guarding a perimeter player, and Castle has been the preferred option for other opponents. With Castle shooting well, that might change, but there are no better options. As for Wemby, OKC has put smaller guys on him often. Will they rely on that strategy, or will they try to see if either of the starting bigs or Jaylin Williams can handle the assignment?
The Spurs will need to find ways to stress the defense using switches until a good matchup presents itself and exploit it to score one-on-one or find the open man quickly. Discipline, patience, and excellent execution will be required when the opportunity to run is not there.
The little things will matter as much as slowing down SGA on defense
It’s impossible to look at the Thunder’s success and not attribute a large part of it to the work the reigning and likely soon-to-be two-time MVP does on offense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most effortless scorer in the league and the savior of some bad half-court possessions that OKC can often have. When they can’t run and the ball is not finding the open man, they can simply give Shai the rock and watch him work as he soars for a mid-range jumper or drives on his way to a bucket or a foul. If he’s not at least contained, it’s tough to beat the Thunder.
Despite their success against OKC in the regular season, the Spurs didn’t really stop SGA, as he averaged 29.5 points and 5.5 assists on 50 percent shooting from the field, only slightly worse numbers than the ones he posted against the rest of the league. But they didn’t allow him to go supernova either, which is all anyone can ask. Mitch Johnson gave him different looks in those matchups, but it’s likely Stephon Castle will get the assignment in the series. Castle, who has struggled with foul trouble often, will need to be on his best behavior to avoid sending SGA to the line too often. Some double teams and traps will surely be used, but the Thunder have more weapons than the Timberwolves, so pressure will need to be applied selectively.
While keeping SGA from taking over is a requirement to win the series, the Spurs can’t simply hyperfocus on that the way they did against Edwards and the Timberwolves last round. They will also need to take care of the little things. As mentioned, no team weaponizes mistakes as well as the Thunder. They often play slowly if there’s no obvious advantage, but will run off any live ball turnover. They are a bad offensive rebounding team, and the Spurs are great at cleaning up opponent misses, but OKC can play big lineups. San Antonio can’t get too comfortable on the glass, or it could give a deadly offense more possessions to work with.
Rotations will need to be crisp as well. Similar to the Spurs, the Thunder’s offensive engine is the drive. They are shooting 75 percent at the rim for the playoffs, which should go down considerably if Mitch Johnson opts to keep Wembanyama always in help position, but sometimes they’ll command two on the ball. If their ball handlers find shooters after touching the paint, San Antonio will need to decide on the fly when to close out aggressively and risk a second drive and when to concede a semi-contested shot. Wembanyama, in particular, will have to be more disciplined than he was at times when zoning up and guarding the corner. As counterintuitive as it might sound, sometimes it’s better to let a decent but inconsistent shooter fire away than to constantly be in rotation. The Spurs know that because they did it often against OKC in the regular season.
The Thunder will score. SGA will get his buckets, and they will manufacture good shots. They have more off-the-bounce juice now than in the past, and they have finishers. All the Spurs can do is make things as hard as possible by not giving them easy transition buckets or extra possessions and trying to make sure the least effective scorer possible takes the shots.
Prediction: Thunder in seven
The Spurs seem like the only team that can realistically beat the Thunder. They have a real chance, but OKC has one big advantage: they are a significantly more well-rounded team.
San Antonio is now where Oklahoma City was before getting Alex Caruso and Hartenstein. The talent is there, but the adaptability and depth are simply not as developed. The Thunder can play big or small. They have big, physical perimeter defenders and also smaller, quicker guards. If someone is struggling in the backcourt or wing, they can throw guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe on the floor, who would be rotation players elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Spurs have a strong top eight but have struggled to make two-center lineups work, are heavily relying on a rookie off the bench, and have two forwards with clear issues as their potential ninth man.
If the series goes long and is close, the Thunder simply seem better prepared to adjust or find an unlikely contributor that gives them an edge. The Spurs’ best chance, on the other hand, seems to be to just out-talent OKC early and not relent until they are against the ropes, so that any tweak is made to try to stay alive instead of gaining the upper hand.
It should be a fun series and the beginning of a long rivalry. Hopefully, the Spurs will find a way to come out on top in the first of likely many postseason matchups, but it won’t be easy.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock