By Tim Bontemps, 2026-05-18 20:30:00
全联盟都在关注俄克拉荷马城雷霆与圣安东尼奥马刺之间的NBA西部决赛，热度空前。
“这就是总决赛，”一位西部球队助教告诉ESPN。
“这轮系列赛有机会成为过去十年中最精彩的对决之一，”一位东部球队高管表示。
“这是[另一场]魔术师对阵伯德时代的开始，”一位西部球探说道。
是的，马刺对阵雷霆，这两支全联盟最强球队的强强对话，在经过数月的酝酿后，终于拉开了帷幕。
这两支球队在本赛季的大部分时间里都占据着联盟顶端。他们拥有三位最有价值球员（MVP）热门候选人中的两位——雷霆队的后卫、两届MVP得主谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和马刺队的中锋维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，后者似乎已经准备好最快在下周就确立自己作为这项运动统治力量的地位。
两位球星身边都有充满活力的天才球员环绕——雷霆有杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)；马刺则有德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)——更不用说在本次季后赛中崭露头角、逐渐承担起明星角色的其他球员，比如雷霆的阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 和马刺的迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)。
这是一场应当具备所有精彩要素的系列赛。为了做好充分准备，我们采访了10位联盟内部人士——包括教练、球探和高管——带你深入了解周一第一场比赛（东部时间晚上8:30，NBC/Peacock直播）及之后的看点。（在这10人中，有8人预测俄克拉荷马城将赢得系列赛。）
1. 马刺的后卫将如何应对俄克拉荷马城的压迫？
尽管文班亚马吸引了所有理所应当的关注，但“马刺后卫线”才是周末谈话中被提及频率最高的话题。理由很充分，马刺的福克斯、卡斯尔和哈珀将面临来自吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)、亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 以及凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 轮番施加的最佳防守阵容级别的压迫。
“他们该如何反击？”一位西部助教说，“他们能承受住整整48分钟那种令人窒息的防守吗？”
在晋级过程中，雷霆一直依靠赢下“球权争夺战”而生。得益于吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的卓越表现，他们很少失误，同时还能迫使对手出现大量失误。制造失误还能阻止马刺落位进行阵地防守，从而不给那位或许是NBA历史上最令人畏惧的防守者（文班）影响每一次球权的机会。
“无论你的阵容如何，[对阵俄克拉荷马城时]你必须保护好球，因为如果你不这样做，他们就会直接得分，”这位助教说，“如果马刺能凭借他们的人员和教练组落位防守，他们能防住雷霆。但如果他们不断失误，就防不住。这是拼图中最关键的一块，也是我首先要观察的地方。”
马刺崛起过程中最令人印象深刻的或许是卡斯尔和哈珀的进步，甚至在系列赛之间都能看到成长。但波特兰开拓者和明尼苏达森林狼的防守并不具备雷霆这种级别的全面性。
“哈珀表现得很棒，但雷霆是完全不同的猛兽。面对大多数球队，包括开拓者和森林狼，你还有能力通过换防找到有利的对位，”一位西部高管说道。
“但在俄克拉荷马城阵中，没有任何可以针对的弱点。”
2. 雷霆如何限制文班亚马的防守影响力？
一位东部助教的总结或许最为精辟：“谢伊强得离谱，但他不是‘作弊码’。”
在西部决赛的一端是吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，他场均贡献31.4分，且55.3%的命中率刚刚打破了NBA历史上场均30+后卫的单赛季纪录。
而在另一端，则是前文提到的那位身高7英尺5英寸的“作弊码”。
“雷霆该如何绕过文班的防守去得分？对我来说，这是系列赛最大的疑问，”一位西部球探说。
“看上一轮对阵明尼苏达的比赛，看到那些球员甚至不敢动投篮的念头，在起跳前就在找传球路线，这就是他伟大之处的证明……这违背了你作为球员的所有本能。”
雷霆究竟如何限制文班的效率？两位东部高管分享了雷霆如何让文班亚马打得更艰难的方法：
“让文班在三分线外和攻防转换中参与防守。如果比赛节奏慢下来，他的效率太高了。你必须让他跑起来，不断让他陷入各种战术防守中。”
“通过掩护和背身单打与他进行身体对抗，以此抵消他作为协防者的能力。”
此外还有“赛中赛”。在过去两个赛季对俄克拉荷马城至关重要的球员以赛亚·哈滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)，在文班亚马在场时能否留在场上，还是最终会被缩减戏份？
如果他被缩减戏份，当雷霆想要祭出小个阵容时会发生什么？——过去当雷霆背水一战时，他们经常转而使用小个阵容，以进一步放大他们制造混乱和失误的能力。
“我很想看看马刺能否让雷霆的内线陷入犯规麻烦，”一位东部球探说，“这可能成为他们的一个重要因素。”
“在过去的几年里，当雷霆想要在系列赛中出奇招时，他们会打小阵容，但这次这招行不通。”
3. 雷霆在防守端将如何部署切特·霍姆格伦？
另一个值得关注的战略点是俄克拉荷马城对霍姆格伦的使用。他在最佳防守球员评选中仅次于文班亚马位列第二，并且是过去两个赛季全联盟最佳防守体系的支柱。“切特非常出色。他是联盟中防守第二好的球员，”一位西部助教说。
然而，雷霆的大部分比赛计划都涉及霍姆格伦作为一名“游弋大前锋”的能力，他可以与哈滕施泰因或杰林·威廉姆斯 (Jaylin Williams) 搭档，此外他还能作为空间拉开者。这种全面性很大程度上取决于哈滕施泰因和威廉姆斯在文班亚马在场时是否具备留守赛场的能力。
“我只是觉得，按照马刺现在的打法，因为他们场上有四个能投篮的球员，切特不能像他想要的那样随处游走和协防，”另一位西部助教说。
“所以马刺会让那名球员回归正常的篮球对位。我预计他们会让切特先去防卡斯尔，放他投篮。但这样做，你就失去了完整的持球压迫。”
俄克拉荷马城已经展现出了改变阵容和根据对手进行调整的意愿。在2025年NBA总决赛的第一场比赛中，雷霆改打小阵容，让哈滕施泰因坐上替补席——结果在第四场又让他重新回到了首发。
“马刺能否在持球一对一中防住雷霆，雷霆又能否在一对一中防住文班？这将至关重要。谁做得更好，谁就能赢，”一位东部球探说。
“我会尝试让哈滕施泰因首发，让切特收割比赛。他们会用B、C、D计划的球员去轮番尝试，看谁能顶住[文班亚马]的身体，通过强硬的对抗把他推向外线，而他们在多尔特、卡鲁索和杰伦·威廉姆斯身上拥有三个能做到这一点的优秀人选。”
因此，虽然俄克拉荷马城选择如何开局很重要，但观察雷霆在比赛开始时将霍姆格伦放在哪个防守位置也会很有趣。他们会让他防文班亚马吗？还是防卡斯尔？或者是3D侧翼朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)？
“我会让谢伊防卡斯尔，切特防尚帕尼开局，因为你很可能不会用哈滕施泰因来终结比赛，”另一位东部球探说，“然后在比赛最后阶段让切特去防维克托。”
4. 马刺能投进足够的球吗？
这轮系列赛最大的变数将是两队的三分球——特别是圣安东尼奥，在本赛季马刺战胜对手的四场比赛中，他们的外线命中率比俄克拉荷马城高出4个百分点。
“我可以向你保证，雷霆会放他们在外线投篮，”一位东部球探说。
俄克拉荷马城非常希望能够尽可能多地包夹文班亚马。但这样做可能会让福克斯、哈珀和卡斯尔这些手感起伏不定的射手获得空位跳投的机会。如果他们能投进，就有可能打乱雷霆的计划。
“雷霆会不断挤压、贴身和对抗，逼迫你的外线得分手去处理球，”西部球探说，“如果他们能投进足够的球，避免雷霆在内线堆叠防守并强迫维克托进行跳投，那对他们来说就意义重大。”
相应地，可以预见马刺在这轮系列赛中会有大量的底角三分球。根据ESPN统计，这是自2010年以来第三个底角三分出手最多的球队（马刺）对阵允许对手投出底角三分最多的球队（雷霆）的系列赛。在前两次系列赛中——两年前达拉斯独行侠击败雷霆，以及2010年奥兰多魔术击败夏洛特山猫——底角三分出手更多的球队都赢了。
“如果你把任何没有投射能力的球员放在场上，”一位西部助教说，“球就会不断地传到[底角]，因为雷霆非常擅长同时兼顾两个防守位置。”
5. 深度和经验有多重要？
在本次季后赛之前，马刺首发阵容中唯一有季后赛经验的是福克斯，他在2023年随萨克拉门托国王队止步首轮。
人们经常将今年的马刺队与1995年的奥兰多魔术队进行比较，那支球队由一位充满活力的年轻中锋（沙奎尔·奥尼尔 (Shaquille O’Neal)）和一位冉冉升起的明星后卫（佩尼·哈达威 (Penny Hardaway)）领衔，在当年打进总决赛之前从未赢过一场季后赛。马刺肯定希望这种比较到此为止——魔术在1995年总决赛中被休斯顿火箭队横扫——但这无疑将是圣安东尼奥迄今为止最大的考验。
“这是一场国际象棋比赛，”一位西部球探说，“俄克拉荷马城最擅长放大球员的局限性。他们会让任何球员感到不舒服。他们会让圣安东尼奥感到不舒服。”
当俄克拉荷马城上一次在季后赛失利时——两年前在西部半决赛负于达拉斯独行侠——那支年轻的球队在面对身经百战的独行侠时缺乏真正的季后赛经验。（值得一提的是，马刺助教肖恩·斯威尼 (Sean Sweeney) 当时正是那支独行侠的防守教练。）
随着本赛季的进行，俄克拉荷马城一直在谈论通过那次经历获得的教训和信心。雷霆明白许多冠军球队现在都知道的道理：在通往NBA总冠军的道路上，似乎没有捷径可走。马刺若想打破这一规律，将面临巨大的挑战。
“两年前的那支雷霆队与今年相比，简直就是青年队级别，”一位西部助教说，“完全没有可比性。”
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA playoffs: What league insiders are watching in Spurs-Thunder
NBA playoffs: What league insiders are watching in Spurs-Thunder
Hype for the NBA’s Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs has come from across the league.
“This is the Finals,” a West assistant coach told ESPN.
“This has a chance to go down as one of the best series of the past decade,” an Eastern Conference executive said.
“This is the start of [another] Magic vs. Bird,” a West scout said.
Yes, Spurs-Thunder, a collision course of the league’s two best teams that’s felt months in the making, is here.
These two teams have stood atop the league for most of the season. They have two of the top three candidates for Most Valuable Player – Thunder guard and back-to-back winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, who seems ready to assume his place as the sport’s dominant force as soon as next week.
Both stars have dynamic talents surrounding them – Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren for the Thunder; De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle for the Spurs – not to mention other players emerging into starring roles in these playoffs, such as Ajay Mitchell for OKC and Dylan Harper for San Antonio.
It’s a series that should have it all. And, to properly prepare, we talked to 10 league insiders – a sampling of coaches, scouts and executives – to take you inside the matchups to watch in Monday’s Game 1 (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock) and beyond. (Of those 10, eight picked Oklahoma City to win the series.)
1. How will San Antonio’s guards handle Oklahoma City’s pressure?
For all the understandable attention paid to Wembanyama, this was the topic most frequently mentioned throughout conversations over the weekend. And for good reason, as San Antonio’s De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper will see waves of All-Defense-caliber pressure from Luguentz Dort. And Alex Caruso. And Cason Wallace.
“How do they combat it?” a West assistant coach said. “Can they handle the 48 minutes of that suffocating defense?”
Throughout their run, the Thunder have thrived on winning the possession game. They rarely turn the ball over, thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance, and they also turn their opponents over in bunches. Creating turnovers will also prevent the Spurs from sitting back in a set defense and allowing perhaps the most feared defender in NBA history a chance to impact every single possession.
“No matter what your roster is, you have to take care of the ball [against Oklahoma City], because if you don’t it’s automatic points,” the assistant coach said. “If the Spurs can set their defense with the personnel and coaching they have, they can guard OKC. But they can’t guard them if they are turning the ball over. That’s a huge piece of the puzzle and that’s the first thing I’m looking for.”
Perhaps most impressive about San Antonio’s ascension is the development of Castle and Harper, even from series to series. But the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves defenses didn’t feature this level of versatility.
“Harper has been awesome, but OKC is a whole different beast. Against most teams, including Portland and Minnesota, there’s an ability to get switched into a favorable matchup,” a West executive said.
“There’s nobody to target on Oklahoma City.”
2. How can the Thunder limit Wembanyama’s defensive impact?
One East assistant coach might have summed it best: “Shai is f—ing good, but he ain’t a cheat code.”
On one side of these West finals is Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 31.4 points per game and whose 55.3% shooting just shattered the NBA single-season record for a guard averaging 30 points.
On the other side is the aforementioned 7-foot-5 cheat code.
“What does OKC do to score around Victor’s defense? To me, that’s the biggest question of the series,” a West scout said.
“Watching Minnesota in the last series, seeing guys not even thinking about getting a shot up and looking to pass before they even jump, it’s a testament to his greatness … it goes against every instinct you have as a player.”
How can the Thunder limit Wemby’s effectiveness? Two East executives shared how OKC could make things tougher on Wembanyama:
“Make Wemby guard on the perimeter and in transition. If the game slows down, he’s too effective. You have to run him and put him in actions over and over.”
“Get into his body with screening and post ups and neutralize his ability to be a help defender.”
There’s also the game within the game. Can Isaiah Hartenstein, a critical player for Oklahoma City across the past two seasons, stay on the court when Wembanyama is out there, or will he eventually be reduced to a smaller role?
And, if he is, what will happen when the Thunder want to go small – something they’ve often turned to when their backs are against the wall in the past to only further amplify their ability to create havoc and turnovers?
“I will be curious to see if the Spurs can get those bigs in foul trouble,” said an Eastern Conference scout. "That could be a major factor for them.
“In years’ past, when the Thunder want to bring a curveball to the series, they go small, and that will not work.”
3. How will the Thunder deploy Chet Holmgren defensively?
Another strategic point to watch is what Oklahoma City does with Holmgren, who finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Wembanyama and is the anchor of what was the league’s best defense each of the past two seasons. “Chet is really good. He’s the second-best defensive player in the league,” a West assistant coach said.
Much of the Thunder’s game plan, however, involves Holmgren’s ability to play as a roving power forward next to either Hartenstein or Jaylin Williams, in addition to also being able to deploy him as a floor-spacer. That level of versatility will likely depend on whether Hartenstein and Williams are capable of staying on the court when Wembanyama is out there.
“I just think the way the Spurs are playing, because they play four guys who can make a shot, Chet can’t just roam around and help the way he wants to,” another West assistant coach said.
“So they’ll be able to have that player play basketball. I’d expect them to start Chet on Castle, and dare him to make shots. But now by doing that you’ve taken away your complete ball pressure.”
Oklahoma City has shown a willingness to change lineups and adjust to their opponents. In Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals, OKC went small, benching Hartenstein – only to eventually go back to him starting in Game 4.
“Will the Spurs be able to guard the Thunder 1-on-1 with the ball, and will the Thunder be able to guard Wemby one-on-one with the ball? That will be huge. Whoever does that better will win,” an East scout said.
“I would try to start with Hartenstein, and end with Chet, and they’ll be trying around with guys B, C, and D and see who can get into [Wembanyama’s] body and be super physical and push him out to the perimeter, and they have three outstanding guys to do that with in Dort, Caruso and Jalen Williams.”
So, while how Oklahoma City chooses to start games will matter, it will also be interesting to see where the Thunder choose to have Holmgren playing defense to start the game. Will they put him on Wembanyama? On Castle? Or perhaps 3-and-D wing Julian Champagnie?
“I would start Shai on Castle and Chet on Champagnie to start, because you’re not finishing games with Hartenstein most likely,” another East scout said. “And then have Chet guard Victor at the end.”
4. Can the Spurs hit enough shots?
The biggest swing point in this series will be the 3-point shooting on both sides – and, in particular, for San Antonio, which was 4 percentage points better than Oklahoma City from distance in the four victories the Spurs had against their rivals this season.
“I can guarantee you the Thunder will dare them to hit shots from the outside,” an East scout said.
Oklahoma City would love to be able to blitz Wembanyama as much as possible. But doing so will potentially leave guys such as Fox, Harper and Castle – all streaky shooters – open to knock down perimeter jumpers. If they can, it will potentially scramble the Thunder’s plans.
“OKC is going to squeeze, grab and hold and make your perimeter scorers make plays,” the West scout said. “If they can make enough shots to avoid OKC loading up in the middle and forcing Victor into jump shooting, that’s big for them.”
In turn, expect lots of corner 3-pointers for San Antonio in this series. Per ESPN Research, this is the third playoff series since 2010 where the team that shot the most corner 3s (San Antonio) is facing the team that allowed the most (Oklahoma City). In the prior two series – when the Dallas Mavericks beat the Thunder two years ago, and the Orlando Magic beat the Charlotte Bobcats in 2010 – the team that shot the most corner 3s won.
“If you put any non-shooters out there,” a West assistant coach said, “the ball will just keep ending up [in the corner] because OKC is so good at being in two places at once.”
5. How much will depth and experience matter?
Before these playoffs, the only Spurs starter with postseason experience was Fox, who fell in the first round in 2023 with the Sacramento Kings.
There have been a lot of comparisons between this year’s Spurs team and the 1995 Orlando Magic, who were led by a dynamic young center (Shaquille O’Neal), a blossoming star guard (Penny Hardaway) and had never won a single playoff game before reaching the NBA Finals that year. The Spurs would love for the comparisons to end there – the Magic were swept by the Houston Rockets in the 1995 Finals – but this is easily going to be San Antonio’s biggest test yet.
“This is a chess match,” a West scout said. “Oklahoma City does the best job of highlighting a players’ limitations. They make any player uncomfortable. They will make San Antonio uncomfortable.”
When Oklahoma City last lost in the playoffs – two years ago to the Dallas Mavericks in the West semifinals – a young team lacked any real playoff experience against a battle-tested Mavericks team. (Spurs assistant Sean Sweeney ran the defense for those Mavericks, it’s worth pointing out.)
As this season has played out, Oklahoma City has talked about the lessons and confidence gained through that experience. The Thunder learned what many title teams now know: There seems to be no step-skipping on the path to an NBA title. The Spurs will have their hands full in their attempt to buck that trend.
“That Thunder team from two years ago is a JV team compared to this year,” a West assistant coach said. “It’s not even a comparison.”
By Tim Bontemps, via ESPN