By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-17 21:24:26
雷霆一路横扫晋级西部决赛。马刺表现强势，但晋级之路更为艰辛。谁以更好的状态迎接这组对决？
玛丽琳·杜宾斯基 (Marilyn Dubinski)： 我认为两队各有优劣。毫无疑问，圣安东尼奥马刺是那支经过更多季后赛洗礼、历经磨砺的球队，而俄克拉荷马城雷霆通往西决的道路则轻松得超乎想象，但他们毕竟是卫冕冠军。他们知道夺冠需要付出什么，所以这真的重要吗？此外还有“休息 vs. 比赛节奏”的问题：雷霆显然得到了更充分的休息，体能更充沛，但这是否会转化为状态生疏？马刺在首轮和次轮之间就遇到了这种情况，但雷霆在对阵洛杉矶湖人的系列赛首战中依然赢得游刃有余。我认为两队都会为这组对决感到异常兴奋，所以这些因素可能并不重要。
马克·巴灵顿 (Mark Barrington)： 这很难说，但马刺绝对需要挑战来为季后赛做好准备，前两轮的惨烈肉搏为西决打下了良好的基础。雷霆的球员已经拥有丰富的季后赛经验，所以前两轮轻松晋级对他们来说应该不是问题。我认为对马刺来说最好的消息是，在前往俄克拉荷马城之前，唯一有伤在身的人是德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，他的脚踝有些酸痛，但在分区半决赛对阵明尼苏达森林狼的第六场比赛中，他看起来状态很好，得分随心所欲。杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 为雷霆缺席了很长时间，尽管预计他会在对阵马刺的系列赛中复出，但他可能会有些手感生疏。
比尔·桓 (Bill Huan)： 我认为两队在“准备就绪程度”上都没有绝对优势。他们都正处于全力运转的状态，毫无疑问是全明星赛以来联盟中表现最好的两支球队。话虽如此，他们散发出的信心类型完全不同。雷霆沉稳且随性：他们非常清楚自己的实力，并且以前也到过这个高度。另一方面，马刺则是那群喧闹的新生代，他们对夺冠的信念近乎狂妄，即便他们并不知道通往“应许之地”的征途上会遇到什么。圣安东尼奥的青涩与无畏既是福也是祸，只有时间才能告诉我们硬币会翻向哪一面。
杰杰·戈麦斯 (Jeje Gomez)： 我本来会说马刺处于更好的位置，因为他们克服了逆境且正处于节奏之中，但上一场对阵森林狼后的伤病报告改变了我的看法。德阿隆·福克斯和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 都被列为出战成疑，看到福克斯可能再次加重脚踝伤势，并听到米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 说他不确定他们是否会出战，这确实有点吓人。也许马刺只是对他们过于谨慎了。也许福克斯只是需要重新包扎脚踝——毕竟他在回到更衣室后又重返赛场了。他们在场上看起来表现都不错。但在进入一场对抗激烈、面对极具侵略性的外线防守的战斗时，我宁愿选择健康，而不是所谓的“比赛节奏”。
马刺显然不喜欢雷霆，并且在常规赛交锋中占据绝对优势。之前的成功会给圣安东尼奥带来宝贵的信心提升，还是说季后赛完全是另一回事？
杜宾斯基： 虽然常规赛的交锋肯定会提升他们的信心，因为他们知道击败这支球队需要什么，而且没有理由认为连胜会终止（我记得2018年对阵金州勇士时也有这种感觉），但我认为他们和所有人一样清楚，季后赛是完全不同的，尤其是在没有主场优势的情况下。看看第二轮就知道了：常规赛和近期历史都表明森林狼是马刺的克星，但结果并非如此。雷霆在听了几个月“马刺自12月以来更强”的言论后，肯定会动力十足，所以把常规赛留在过去吧，准备迎接一场恶战。
巴灵顿： 马刺上次对阵雷霆是在2月4日，那是……大约三个半月前。马刺自那以后肯定进步了，但马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 也有充足的时间去剖析录像，并制定策略来应对场上那个身高7.5英尺、破坏他们进攻体系的“外星人”。马刺的打法基于速度和传球，而雷霆的防守将采用森林狼式的风格，强调身体对抗并切断传球路线。俄克拉荷马城的阵容更有天赋，所以马刺无法像在半决赛那样频繁地针对对手的薄弱环节。
虽然马刺在常规赛对阵雷霆时拥有4胜1负的优势是一个令人鼓舞的信号，但马刺仅仅发挥出常规赛水平是不够赢得这轮系列赛的。他们必须打得非常干脆利落，并且充满能量。马刺比赛季中期四度击败雷霆时更强了，但雷霆也是如此。这将是一个艰难的系列赛，我预计竞争会贯穿始终。
桓： 如果说有什么能让这支喧闹的马刺队更加自信，那就是他们对阵雷霆4胜1负的常规赛战绩。另一方面，我认为俄克拉荷马城也会更有动力去击败这支被许多人称为其“氪星石”的球队。虽然马刺可以从那些常规赛中总结出关键的对位优势，但马克也提出了很好的一点，那就是雷霆已经有时间针对维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 这个移动的错位杀器制定比赛计划。最终，两队在进入系列赛时都应该对自己的机会感到乐观。
戈麦斯： 这支马刺队无所畏惧，所以即使他们输掉了常规赛系列赛，他们也会认为自己有机会。但这四场胜利可能会让他们感到更加自信，如果他们在系列赛初期遇到困难，这种信心将至关重要。雷霆有可能在主场拿下前两场比赛，或者在第一场比赛中完全统治并取得大胜，因为他们确实有那么强。如果这种情况发生在一直以来都难以战胜他们的球队身上，心理上可能很难恢复。但马刺知道那些家伙也是凡人，是可以被击败的，这应该能帮助他们在出现问题时迅速反弹。
预测时间：你认为这组系列赛将如何展开，谁将挺进总决赛？
杜宾斯基： 我讨厌预测，但我的直觉告诉我是马刺六场晋级。也许这只是我的一厢情愿，但我预感马刺会在俄克拉荷马城抢下两场中的一场，要么在圣安东尼奥横扫第三、四场，要么在抢下一场后偷走第五场，然后回到圣安东尼奥在第六场结束系列赛。这在很大程度上取决于文班亚马能否保持冷静，以及后卫线能否继续统治比赛，这在这一轮会比前两轮困难得多，但他们具备这样的实力。
巴灵顿： 说实话，我对这组系列赛的预测器失灵了。我真心希望马刺能在第一场表现强势，在执行力上胜过那支在本赛季季后赛还没怎么流过汗的雷霆队。我认为第一场是马刺夺取主场优势并让雷霆陷入被动的最佳机会。但如果情况相反，主场观众推动雷霆取得一场大胜，我也不觉得意外。任何事情都可能发生，这就是体育比赛有趣（且令人紧张）的原因。
总的来说，我认为两队旗鼓相当。雷霆是卫冕冠军，拥有巨大的经验优势，但马刺学习能力极强，在过去一个月打了11场比赛后，他们看起来莫名地像季后赛老兵。我预计这对两队来说都会是一场异常艰苦的系列赛，但马刺有文班亚马，而雷霆没有。马刺抢七晋级。
桓： 噢天哪……如果我选雷霆，会被踢出这个网站吗？我认为当一切运转良好时，马刺的天花板更高，但我相信俄克拉荷马城能找到方法阻止他们达到那个高度。圣安东尼奥本赛季超越了所有预期，完全有可能一路冲向冠军，但我仍然认为雷霆是更好的球队（即便马刺对他们来说是个糟糕的对位），他们能够针对文班制定出可靠的反制措施。我认为他们能实现连冠，但明年将属于马刺。
雷霆抢七晋级。
戈麦斯： 在系列赛开始前，现在的稳妥选择是雷霆在六场或七场内晋级。尽管马刺自全明星赛以来以及在季后赛中的表现非常出色，但俄克拉荷马城表现得更好。他们拥有经验丰富的冠军核心，并随着阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 的崛起和贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 的交易加入了更多天赋。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 有时是不可阻挡的，他们的防守也非常出色。他们成为热门是有原因的。
不过，如果马刺一上来就火力全开并夺走主场优势会发生什么呢？像俄克拉荷马城这样一直顺风顺水的弊端在于，你可能会对逆境感到陌生甚至不适。如果系列赛拉得很长且比分胶着，我认为雷霆会赢，但我能预见到圣安东尼奥在早期震惊对手，并在他们重新集结之前就解决战斗的情况。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The Spurs have the confidence and the talent to beat the Thunder
The Spurs have the confidence and the talent to beat the Thunder
The Thunder swept their way to the Conference Finals. The Spurs were dominant but had to fight harder to get there. Who comes into the matchup in better shape?
Marilyn Dubinski: I think both teams have their advantages and disadvantages. There is no doubt that the Spurs are the more battle-tested team, while the Thunder had about the easiest path to the WCF imaginable, but they are the defending champions. They know what it takes to win it all, so does that actually matter? There’s also the matter of rest vs. rhythm: the Thunder are certainly more rested and fresh, but will that translate to rust? It did for the Spurs between the first and second round, but the Thunder still won their game 1 against the Lakers comfortably. I think both teams will be so hyped for this match-up that it doesn’t matter.
Mark Barrington: It’s hard to say, but the Spurs definitely needed to be challenged to be playoff-ready, and the rugged nature of the first two rounds was good preparation for the conference finals. The players on the Thunder already have plenty of playoff experience, so the fact that they had an easy time with their first two rounds shouldn’t be a problem for them. I think the best news for the Spurs is that the only player who is nicked up going into OKC is De’Aaron Fox with a sore ankle, and he seemed well enough to score at will against the Timberwolves in Game 6 of the conference semifinals. Jalen Williams has missed a lot of time for the Thunder, and even though he’s expected to be back for the series against the Spurs, he may be a little rusty.
Bill Huan: I don’t think either team has a “readiness” advantage over the other. They’re both firing on all cylinders and have undoubtedly been the two best teams in the league since the All-Star break. With that said, the type of confidence they exude is entirely different. The Thunder are quiet and laid back: they know exactly what they are and have been here before. On the other hand, the Spurs are the new, raucous kids whose belief that they can win it all borders on arrogance, even when they don’t know what to expect on the journey to the promised land. San Antonio’s inexperience and fearlessness are both a blessing and a curse, and only time will tell which side of the coin they’ll fall on.
Jeje Gomez: I would have said the Spurs were in a better spot because they have overcome adversity and are in rhythm, but the injury report from the last Timberwolves game changed my outlook. Having both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper listed as questionable, seeing Fox potentially reaggravating his ankle issue, and hearing Mitch Johnson saying he wasn’t sure if they were going to suit up was a little scary. Maybe the Spurs were being overly cautious with them. Maybe Fox just needed to get his ankle retaped — he returned to action after going to the locker room after all. They both looked good out there. But heading into what will be a physical battle against a hyper-aggressive perimeter defense, I would have taken health over lack of rust.
The Spurs clearly don’t like the Thunder and dominated the season series. Will their previous success against OKC give San Antonio a valuable confidence boost, or are the playoffs just a different animal?
Dubinski: While the regular season matchups will certainly give them a confidence boost in the sense that they know what it takes to beat this team and there’s no reason to think it ends here (I remember that feeling from 2018 against the Warriors), I think they and everyone else know the playoffs are a different animal, especially without homecourt advantage. Look no further than the second round: the regular season and recent history in Minnesota suggested the Timberwolves had the Spurs’ number, but that ended up not being the case. The Thunder will be highly motivated after having to listen to the narrative that the Spurs were better since December, so put the regular season in the past and expect a dog fight.
Barrington: The Spurs last played the Thunder on February 4, which is … about 3 and a half months ago. The Spurs have definitely improved since then, but Mark Daigneault has had plenty of time to dissect the tape and come up with strategies to handle a seven-and-a-half-foot alien on the court disrupting their offensive game. The Spurs game is based on speed and passing, and the Thunder’s defense will employ a Timberwolves-style defense based on physicality and taking away passing lanes. OKC has a more talented roster, so the Spurs won’t be able to pick on the weakest link as much as they were able to in the semis.
While the Spurs having a 4-1 advantage over the Thunder in the regular season is an encouraging sign, it’s not going to be good enough for the Spurs to play as well as they did in the regular season to win this series. They are going to have to play with a lot of crispness and also with a lot of energy. The Spurs are better than they were when they beat the Thunder 4 out of 5 games in the middle of the season, but so are the Thunder. It’s going to be a tough series, and I expect it to be close throughout.
Huan: If there’s one thing that could make this boisterous Spurs team even more confident, it would be their 4-1 regular-season record against the Thunder. On the flip side, I think that OKC will be more motivated to beat a team many have proclaimed to be their kryptonite, too. While there are key matchup advantages that the Spurs can take away from those regular-season games, Mark also makes a good point in that the Thunder has had time to game-plan against the walking mismatch that is Wemby. Ultimately, both teams should feel good about their chances going into this series.
Gomez: This Spurs team is fearless, so they would have thought they had a chance even if they had lost the season series, but those four wins probably make them feel even more confident, which could be big if they face some struggles early. It’s possible the Thunder take the first couple of games at home or completely dominate on their way to a blowout win on Game 1, because they are that good. If that were to happen to a team that has traditionally struggled against them, it could have been tough to recover mentally. But the Spurs know those guys are human and beatable, which should help them bounce back if something goes wrong.
Prediction time: how do you think the series will play out, and who do you think will reach the Finals?
Dubinski: I hate predictions, but my gut instinct is saying Spurs in six. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I see the Spurs taking 1 of 2 in OKC, either sweeping Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio or getting one of two but stealing Game 5, and then returning to SA to close out the series in Game 6. A lot of this will depend on Victor Wembanyama staying under control and the guards continuing to dominate, which will be a lot harder in this round than the last two, but they have what it takes.
Barrington:.To be honest, my predictor is broken for this series. I really hope the Spurs come out strong in Game 1 and out-execute a Thunder squad that hasn’t had to work hard yet this postseason. I think Game 1 is going to be the Spurs’ best chance to take over home court advantage and put the Thunder on their back foot early. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets turned around and the home crowd propels OKC to a big early win. Anything can happen, and that’s why sports are fun (and stressful) to watch.
I think overall, the teams are pretty evenly matched. The Thunder are the defending champs, and they have a huge experience advantage, but the Spurs are fast learners and they somehow look like playoff veterans after 11 total games so far in the last month. I expect that it will be a very tough series for both teams, but the Spurs have Wembanyama, and the Thunder don’t. Spurs in seven.
Huan: Man, oh man… will I be kicked off the site for picking the Thunder? I think the Spurs have a higher ceiling when everything is humming, but I also have faith in OKC finding ways to stop them from reaching those heights. San Antonio has surpassed every expectation this season and could absolutely blitz their way to the title, but I still think that the Thunder are the better team (even if the Spurs are a bad matchup for them), who will be able to come up with reliable counters against Wemby. I say they manage to go back-to-back, but it’ll be the Spurs’ time next year.
OKC in 7.
Gomez: The safe bet right now, before the series starts, is Thunder in six or seven games. As good as the Spurs have been since the All-Star break and in the playoffs, OKC has been better. They have an experienced championship core and have added even more talent to it with the ascent of Ajay Mitchell and the trade for Jared McCain. SGA can be unstoppable at times, and their defense is great. They are the favorites for a reason.
What would happen if the Spurs come out swinging and take homecourt advantage, though? The downside of being as good as Oklahoma City has been is that you get unfamiliar and potentially uncomfortable with adversity. If it goes long and is close, I think the Thunder will win, but I can see a world in which San Antonio shocks them early and puts them away before they can regroup.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock