By Stephen Bagwell | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-18 20:18:53
对于圣安东尼奥马刺来说，这是个重大的日子，因为他们即将开启自2017年以来的首次西部决赛之旅。而他们的对手不是别人，正是老对手俄克拉荷马城雷霆——这支球队在建队至今的短暂历史中，曾多次让马刺陷入苦战。在没有主场优势的情况下，带着一套尚未经过充分证明的阵容去挑战卫冕冠军，这确实令人望而生畏；当你开始仔细分析各项数据时，难免会感到紧张。然而，我选择以乐观的视角来看待这轮系列赛，以下是我的观点：
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马刺在常规赛击败雷霆的策略是：放空投篮水平平平的球员，赌他们投不进。这一点已经被指出过，这里简单总结一下该策略：维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 完全放掉底角的亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)、吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort) 等人，转而去保护篮板。我不认为这是一个可持续的策略——我不敢赌卡鲁索在这轮系列赛中会投丢10个大空位三分，更不用说在单场比赛中了。我原以为明尼苏达森林狼更有能力利用马刺让文班镇守篮下的防守策略，尤其是让纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 蹲守底角，但他们从未真正充分利用这一点。如果我们坚持这种防守策略，雷霆会找到破解之道。如果我们没有清晰的应对方案，正如作者JG所指出的，雷霆可能会通过核心轮换球员投出更好的表现，或者将他们撤下轮换改用亚伦·维金斯 (Aaron Wiggins) 和以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe) 这样的球员，从而在7场内解决战斗。但后一种情况会产生连锁反应，我稍后会讨论。
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自常规赛交手以来，两队都有了显著的进步。雷霆通过引进贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 并赋予阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 更多的戏份，增加了阵容的深度、多样性和投射能力。
与此同时，马刺通过内部球员的爆发式成长，也提升了投射、深度和多样性。即便斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 只是一个表现平平甚至略高于平均水平的射手，而不是他在季后赛中展现出的那种精英级投手，这对马刺来说也是一个巨大的利好。我们之前的大多数失利都源于投篮不佳以及外线出手不足。卡斯尔、罗恩·哈珀 (Ron Harper) 和布莱恩特 (Bryant) 都展现出了进步和自信，这是一个巨大的变数（自1月以来，每个人的命中率都提升了超过10个百分点）。
我认为马刺在这方面拥有显著优势，因为这意味着我们不需要为了调整场上表现而打乱轮换或节奏——球员们的信心不会改变。如果出现犯规麻烦或伤病，像哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 这样的球员很清楚自己的定位和能力，他们不会像雷霆球员那样因为被撤出首发而受到心态波动的影响。如果投篮手感能维持或保持在平均水平之上，马刺完全有能力从容应对雷霆——我们可能会看到像对阵森林狼时那样，马刺在5场或6场内晋级的情况。
如果上述两点同时成立，即雷霆有能力破解马刺的核心防守策略，而我们的反击手段稍显逊色；但与此同时，我们经历了持续且巨大的内部成长，那么我预言这轮系列赛将充满进攻火花和得分爆发，最终马刺将在抢七大战中胜出，因为雷霆那边的变数还不足以扭转乾坤。
其他关键点
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斯蒂芬·卡斯尔的失误与犯规。如果他能控制好球权并留在场上，马刺就能赢。我会这样想：“如果卡斯尔的助攻和三分命中数之和能与他的犯规和失误数持平，马刺必胜；如果他犯满离场或者失误超过4-5次，我们就悬了。”
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文班的纪律性。虽然JG提到了“细节”，但我会更具体地指向文班的纪律性。如果他在追求盖帽时过于激进，会给雷霆留出很多机会——这种高波动性的回合对雷霆有利。如果他无法应对对方的身体对抗和各种小动作，那将是雷霆的大捷。如果他开始强行进攻、出现失误或选择糟糕的投篮，对雷霆也是重大利好。他必须在心理和生理上都做好准备，在攻防两端近乎完美，并确保每场比赛能出战36分钟。
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凯尔登、科内特和哈珀能否在文班不在场的时间里勉强维持局面？ 替补席将是决定性的因素。在常规赛对阵雷霆时，当科内特是场上唯一的大个子（即文班不在场）的107分钟里，马刺的净效率值为-31。当然，这里有一些特殊情况：在那期间的很多时候科内特是作为首发出场，而文班则是伤愈复出替补出战。希望文班在这轮系列赛中不会有时间限制，因此“非文班时间”会更少。但我们需要在这些时间里表现得比常规赛好得多，才能建立信心。如果科内特和替补阵容能打出持平的净效率值，我非常有信心马刺能赢，而且是大胜。
最终预测：马刺6场晋级。
我认为卡斯尔会控制好失误，并会在防守谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 时保持警惕，注意交代手部动作以避免犯规。在这两个方面，可能会有一两场比赛失控。文班在进攻端会有些急躁，并为了弥补防守而过度追求盖帽，我们可能会因此输掉一两场比赛。但在剩下的四场比赛中，卡斯尔将延续他的飞跃表现。我们会保持纪律，执行到位，并从卡斯尔、哈珀等人那里获得足够的火力来拉开空间。托尼（帕克）统治了费舍尔，文班也将统治切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：An optimistic preview of the Spurs vs. Thunder series
An optimistic preview of the Spurs vs. Thunder series
It’s a big day for the Spurs as they kick off their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2017, and it’s against none other than an old rival who has given the Spurs a few very tough tests in their short existence in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Going up against the defending champions without homecourt advantage and with an unproven roster is daunting, and it’s easy to start getting nervous when you start really crunching the numbers. However, I’m choosing to look at the this serious from an optimistic view, and here is where I’m at:
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The Spurs beat OKC in the regular season by daring average-ish shooters to shoot. This has already been pointed out, but here’s a short summary of the strategy: Wemby completely abandons Caruso, Dort, and others in the corner to guard the glass. I don’t think this is a sustainable strategy- I wouldn’t bet on Caruso to miss 10 wide open 3s this series, much less in an individual game. I thought the Wolves would be better equipped to exploit the Spurs use of Wemby zoning down low with Naz Reid, in particular, in the corner. But they never really leaned on that heavily enough. If we stick with that defensive strategy, OKC will find a way to exploit it. If we don’t have a clean counter, that could lead to OKC in 7, either through their main rotation players shooting better, or by dropping them from the rotation and playing guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, as JG points out. But the latter has downstream effects that I’ll discuss later.
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Both teams are noticeably improved since they played in the regular season. The Thunder added more depth and versatility, and shooting, by adding McCain and providing a bigger role to Ajay Mitchell.
Meanwhile, the Spurs added more shooting, depth, and versatility through exponential internal growth. Even if Castle is an average to slightly above average shooter, instead of the elite shooter he’s been in the playoffs, that is a drastic swing in the Spurs favor. Most of our losses came from both not shooting well, and not shooting enough from distance. Castle, Harper, and Bryant all demonstrating improvement and confidence is a big change in our favor (each improved over 10 percentage points from January-on).
I give the Spurs a significant edge here, because it means we don’t have to mess with our rotation or our rhythm to get it on the floor- there’s no change in confidence. If there is foul trouble or an injury, guys like Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet know who they are and what they can do and they don’t get impacted by shifts like the Thunder benching someone would. If the shooting holds up or stays slightly above average, the Spurs are well equipped to thoroughly handle OKC- we’re looking at a Spurs in 5 or 6 type scenario like against the Wolves.
If both of the above are true, that OKC is capable of exploiting the Spurs primary defensive strategy and our counterpunch will be less effective; while simultaneously we’ve experienced massive sustained internal development, then I would predict fireworks and offensive explosions and Spurs in 7, because not enough has changed in the Thunder’s favor.
Some other keys
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Stephon Castle’s turnovers and fouls. If he’s taking care of the ball and on the floor, the Spurs win. I would think of it this way: “if Castle has as many assists and made 3s as fouls and turnovers, Spurs win; if he fouls out or has more than 4-5 turnovers, we lose”.
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Wemby discipline. While JG points out “the little things”, I would point more specifically to Wemby’s discipline. If he is overaggressive going for blocks, it’s going to open up a lot for OKC- high variance type plays that would favor the Thunder. If he doesn’t handle their physicality and cheap shots, it’s a big win for OKC. If he starts to force things and turns the ball over or takes bad shots, it’s a big win for OKC. He has to be mentally and physically prepared to be near perfect on both ends and stay available for 36 minutes per game.
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Can Keldon, Kornet, and Harper get even close to winning non-Wemby minutes? The benches will be big deciding factors. The Spurs had a minus 31 net rating in 107 minutes versus OKC in minutes where Kornet was the only big on the floor. Now, some caveats: Kornet was starting for many of those minutes, and Wemby was coming off the bench recovering from injury. Wemby hopefully won’t find himself on a minutes restriction this series, so there should be fewer non-Wemby minutes to lose. But we need to lose them by significantly less than we did during the regular season to have confidence. If Kornet and the bench group can have a neutral net rating, I would have a lot of confidence the Spurs can win and win big.
Final prediction: Spurs in 6.
I think Steph will control his turnovers, and I think he will be diligent in showing his hands and trying to avoid fouls on SGA. There will be a game or two that get away in both aspects. Wemby will force some things on offense and chase some blocks to overcompensate, and we’ll blow a game or two not having enough to overcome it. But for the other four games, Steph continues his leap. We’re disciplined, execute, and get enough shooting from Steph, Harper, and others to keep the floor spaced out. Tony dominates Fisher, Wemby dominates Chet.
By Stephen Bagwell, via Pounding The Rock