By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-31 13:48:29
如果季后赛今天开打，我们可能会感到困惑，为什么常规赛最后两周和附加赛被取消了。因为季后赛本应在4月18日伴随着我们习以为常的盛大场面和预热拉开帷幕。我们还会担心是否又有另一场流行病影响了NBA赛程，而我们当然不希望这种事发生。
但如果我们审视截至今日的季后赛对阵情况，各组系列赛都颇具看点，我们非常希望这些对决能在正式开启的季后赛中上演。
让我们根据今日（3月31日）的排名来看看每一组潜在的对决：这些球队彼此交手情况如何，他们如何避开对方的潜在优势并利用其弱点。常规赛的交锋记录能告诉我们什么吗？你更信任哪支球队能赢得系列赛？
为了确定7号和8号种子，我们将使用 Basketball-Reference 的季后赛概率数据。或者，根据各支球队的走势，我可能会加入一个“外卡”因素，决定让他们从这个被虚构但已废弃的附加赛中突围。
东部联盟
1号种子底特律活塞 vs 8号种子夏洛特黄蜂
为什么黄蜂排在第8？ 在排名第8（奥兰多）、第9（迈阿密）和第10（夏洛特）的球队中，他们的表现是最好的。他们也是这三支球队中最具观赏性的。而且 Basketball-Reference 的预测器给出了他们 2.8% 的分区夺冠概率！
活塞的担忧是什么？ 球队缺乏足够的第二进攻点。在凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺塌陷康复期间，他们表现尚可。但季后赛将是另一个级别的挑战。即使坎宁安处于完全健康状态，活塞也缺乏多个持球创造者。要跟上黄蜂的外线投射，对活塞来说将是一个算术难题。
黄蜂的担忧是什么？ 缺乏经验以及如何应对活塞的身体对抗。黄蜂阵中并不缺那些不畏惧对抗或大场面的球员。然而，底特律的对抗强度完全处于另一个级别。这可能会让他们有些崩溃，而这正是缺乏经验的弱点暴露无遗的地方。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 活塞目前以 2-0 领先，还剩一场比赛。底特律在12月反弹之势开启时曾大胜黄蜂。第二场比赛他们以6分优势击败夏洛特，坎宁安砍下33分。双方最后一次交手是在4月10日。
预测结果？ 活塞 4-2 晋级。在不确定坎宁安能否恢复到100%状态的情况下，夏洛特能给他们制造一些压力。
2号种子波士顿凯尔特人 vs 7号种子费城76人
为什么76人排在第7？ 他们在正确的时间保持了健康并全员待命。他们应该能击败附加赛中的任何对手。
凯尔特人的担忧是什么？ 篮板问题并未真正解决，而且凯尔特人的健康状况不足以弥补这一缺陷。面对像乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 这样（如果健康）的对手，凯尔特人的内线可能会被打穿。尼库拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vučević) 和尼米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta) 应该能奋力一搏，但凯尔特人看似已解决的防守篮板可能会遭遇危机。进攻回合被延长，加上杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 伤愈归来后可能出现的不稳定性，都可能是致命的。
76人的担忧是什么？ 这支球队从未完全健康，且总能在重大时刻掉链子。信任恩比德、保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 甚至泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 能够并保持完全健康是不理智的。每一场季后赛系列赛开始前，76人的剧本都如出一辙。你开始玩“如果”的游戏，结果发现有太多的“如果”场景，让你无法认真对待他们。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 双方战成 2-2 平。其中三场比赛发生在赛季第一个月。第四场比赛双方都缺少了乔治、恩比德或塔图姆。
预测结果？ 凯尔特人 4-1 晋级。76人能赢下一场，但波士顿应该会在这轮系列赛中横扫千军。
3号种子纽约尼克斯 vs 6号种子亚特兰大老鹰
尼克斯的担忧是什么？ 我们还没看到这支球队完全磨合成功，而他们需要做到这一点，哪怕是在首轮。每个人都认为尼克斯只是在等待季后赛，但在没有冠军经验的情况下想要瞬间进入状态是一项艰巨的任务。杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 面对像戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 和尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 这样的外线防守者可能会消耗大量体力。而且卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 在迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的进攻体系中仍未稳定地找到节奏。
老鹰的担忧是什么？ 他们拥有能得分的球员，但缺乏一个真正的头号得分手。杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 有能力打出全能的数据。亚历山大-沃克可能是进步最快的球员。CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 可以提供火力。但在关键时刻，他们如何回应布伦森的表现？虽然他们的篮板一直很好，但我们能确定老鹰的前场能阻止米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 冲抢前场篮板并延长进攻回合吗？
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 目前战成 1-1，最后一场比赛将在周一进行。他们上一次交手是在12月下旬和1月初，那是特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 被交易之前的事，尽管他只参加了第一场比赛。
预测结果？ 尼克斯 4-2 晋级。老鹰很危险，但缺乏头号得分手可能会让他们受伤。
4号种子克利夫兰骑士 vs 5号种子多伦多猛龙
骑士的担忧是什么？ 这支球队的外线防守将被肢解。多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 都是糟糕的防守者，对手针对他们进行的逐场战术布置可能会让场面变得很难看。这给这些球员在进攻端的投射和创造力带来了更大的压力。他们在季后赛的稳定性一直不理想。我们也还没怎么见过这支球队保持健康，而且他们在过去三年的季后赛中记录糟糕。埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley) 或角色球员们准备好挺身而出了吗？
猛龙的担忧是什么？ 这不是一支优秀或值得信赖的进攻球队，即便面对骑士的防守漏洞，多伦多的进攻表现可能也只是平平。如果无法通过外线投篮来跟上骑士后场双枪的节奏，那将是灾难性的。如果防守端不能制造失误，那么他们可能无法获得足够的轻松得分机会来打出进攻高潮。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 猛龙对阵骑士 3-0 领先，但所有这些比赛都发生在感恩节之前。作为参考，这组常规赛记录毫无意义。
预测结果？ 骑士 4-2 晋级。多伦多的进攻不够可靠，无法持续冲击克利夫兰的防守。
即便快船的科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 打出了职业生涯中最好的篮球表现，雷霆队可能依然强大到无人能敌。Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images
西部联盟
1号种子俄克拉荷马城雷霆 vs 8号种子洛杉矶快船
为什么快船排在第8？ 他们不应该担心波特兰或金州。在附加赛的对决中，我会给菲尼克斯一点微弱的优势。
雷霆的担忧是什么？ 他们是否有档期冲突无法参加比赛，从而弃权？而且这种情况频繁发生到让他们在系列赛中输掉四场？显然，科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的存在令人畏惧，而且达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 正打出极其出色的篮球表现。雷霆只需要确保保护好防守篮板，他们就应该没问题。
快船的担忧是什么？ 雷霆正处于一种毁灭模式。快船擅长制造失误并将这些机会转化为快速轻松的得分。而雷霆是全联盟处理球最好的球队之一。快船将被迫在半场阵地战中做到完美。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 雷霆对阵快船 2-0 领先，最后一场比赛在4月8日。这两场比赛都发生在圣诞节前。
预测结果？ 雷霆 4-0 晋级。快船扭转了他们的赛季，但这是一个完全不同级别的对手。
2号种子圣安东尼奥马刺 vs 7号种子菲尼克斯太阳
为什么是太阳？ 太阳在附加赛中拥有主场优势，一支足够健康的球队应该能锁定7号种子。
马刺的担忧是什么？ 缺乏经验，而且他们的失误确实不少。马刺也不是一支顶尖的三分球队。面对一支投射能力极强的太阳队，这些问题可能会集中爆发。而且菲尼克斯擅长制造失误并进行快速反击。如果马刺不知道如何应对那些艰难时刻，那么威胁就存在。
太阳的担忧是什么？ 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 可以吞噬行星，而且他正在学习如何摧毁整个太阳系。没人能对位文班，那个让狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 去防守他以试图激怒文班的小聪明也不会奏效。在季后赛系列赛中，太阳可能没有足够的运动天赋来跟上马刺的节奏。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 双方战成 2-2 平。太阳赢得了11月的两场比赛。马刺赢得了全明星赛后的两场比赛。
预测结果？ 马刺 4-1 晋级。菲尼克斯能在主场偷走一场胜利，但现在的马刺太强大了。
3号种子洛杉矶湖人 vs 6号种子休斯顿火箭
湖人的担忧是什么？ 湖人还没有彻底解决团队防守的问题。最近看起来还不错，但那只是随机的常规赛。如果他们不能在季后赛中找到防守端的化学反应，那可能会治愈火箭的很多顽疾。即使没有史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams)，湖人可能也难以应对休斯顿的体型。这可能会帮助火箭的防守进入状态。
火箭的担忧是什么？ 这支球队的化学反应一团糟，而且在关键时刻表现糟糕。火箭在胶着的比赛中依然难以得分，面对卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 时，这可不是什么好兆头。火箭很可能跟不上节奏，而且事实证明他们的关键时刻防守就像酒馆的旋转门一样形同虚设。事实证明，这对火箭来说是一组全方位处于劣势的对决。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 本赛季湖人对阵休斯顿 2-1 领先。火箭在圣诞节击败了他们，但湖人在3月中旬于休斯顿连赢两场。
预测结果？ 湖人 4-1 晋级。火箭还没有表现出足够的韧性或化学反应让我们相信他们能创造奇迹。
4号种子丹佛掘金 vs 5号种子明尼苏达森林狼
掘金的担忧是什么？ 他们整个赛季都没有真正保持过健康，现在仍在与伤病作斗争。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 自本赛季中期膝伤归来后，看起来远没有那么灵活或健康。阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 这一年来一直在与腿筋问题作斗争。这支球队在进入季后赛时并没有发挥出最大潜力，这在对阵明尼苏达的比赛中是非常不利的。
森林狼的担忧是什么？ 森林狼在两年前的季后赛系列赛中击败过掘金，但那是凭借卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 展示出的额外体型优势来对抗约基奇。这次有了朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)，森林狼可能没有足够的高度和臂展来限制他。再加上对方有几名优秀的防守者可以尝试消耗安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，这会让森林狼失去节奏。更不用说，森林狼在关键时刻失误很多。面对约基奇，你绝不能这样做。
他们的常规赛交锋记录如何？ 本赛季丹佛对阵明尼苏达 3-1 领先。其中两场胜利发生在赛季前三周。掘金还在圣诞节击败了森林狼。森林狼在3月初赢了一场，当时戈登缺阵。
预测结果？ 森林狼 4-3 晋级。如果丹佛能证明自己是健康的，那将改变系列赛的走向，但掘金现在的脆弱程度足以让他们再次被明尼苏达击败。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：If the NBA playoffs started today: Projecting, analyzing all 8 first-round matchups
If the NBA playoffs started today: Projecting, analyzing all 8 first-round matchups
If the playoffs started today, we’d be confused as to why the final two weeks of the season and Play-In Tournament were scrapped. Because the playoffs are supposed to begin April 18 with all of the pomp and circumstance and lead-up we’ve grown accustomed to. We’d also be worried that another pandemic is affecting the NBA schedule, and we certainly don’t want that to happen.
But if we’re looking at the current playoff matchups as of today, there are some pretty interesting series across the board that we’d really like to see happen in the regularly scheduled postseason.
Let’s look at each of those potential matchups as of today’s (March 31) standings: how those teams look against each other, how their potential strengths can be avoided and weaknesses can be exploited. Does the season series tell us anything? Which team would you trust to win that series?
For determining the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, we’ll use Basketball-Reference’s playoff odds. Or, depending on how teams are trending, I might call a wild card into the mix and decide to move them through this imaginary, yet abandoned Play-In.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Charlotte Hornets
Why the Hornets at No. 8? They’re playing the best out of the teams in eighth (Orlando), ninth (Miami) and 10th (Charlotte). They’re also the most fun team of the three. And the Basketball-Reference predictor gives them a 2.8 percent chance of winning the conference!
What’s the concern for the Pistons? There just isn’t much secondary offense. They’ve been surviving just fine without Cade Cunningham as he heals from a collapsed lung. But the playoffs will be a different level. Even Cunningham at full health means the Pistons don’t have multiple creators. Keeping up with Charlotte’s outside shooting would be a bit of a math problem.
What’s the concern for the Hornets? Lack of experience and dealing with the Pistons’ physicality. The Hornets don’t have guys who shy away from contact or the moment. However, Detroit’s physicality is on an entirely different level. That might break them a little, and that’s where the lack of experience would rear its ugly head.
How did their season series go? The Pistons are up 2-0 with one game left. Detroit blew out the Hornets in December as the turnaround was beginning. They beat Charlotte by six in the second game, with Cunningham going for 33. They have one last meeting on April 10.
What would be the pick? Pistons in six. Without knowing that Cunningham will be 100 percent, Charlotte can put some pressure on them.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Why the 76ers at No. 7? They’re healthy and available at the right time. They should be able to beat any of the teams in the Play-In.
What’s the concern for the Celtics? The rebounding isn’t actually fixed, and the Celtics aren’t healthy enough to make up for it. Against someone like Joel Embiid (if healthy), the interior of the Celtics could be exposed. Nikola Vučević and Neemias Queta should be able to battle, but the Celtics’ seemingly fixed defensive rebounding could suffer. Possessions getting extended and any potential inconsistency from Jayson Tatum as he comes back from the injury could be detrimental.
What’s the concern for the 76ers? This team is never fully healthy and always finds a way to fall apart in the big moments. Trusting Embiid, Paul George and even Tyrese Maxey to be and remain fully healthy is irrational. It’s the same story with the Sixers going into every single postseason series. You start playing the “what if” game and get too many “what if” scenarios to take this seriously.
How did their season series go? The series is tied 2-2. Three of the games happened in the first month of the season. The fourth game happened without George, Embiid or Tatum.
What would be the pick? Celtics in five. The Sixers get a game, but Boston should roll in this series.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks
What’s the concern for the Knicks? We still haven’t seen this team fully click, and it’s going to need that, even in the first round. Everybody assumes the Knicks are just waiting for the playoffs, but flipping a switch when you don’t have championship experience is a tall task. Jalen Brunson going up against perimeter defenders like Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker could drain his energy. And Karl-Anthony Towns still hasn’t consistently found his groove in Mike Brown’s offense.
What’s the concern for the Hawks? They have guys who can score, but they don’t have a true go-to scorer. Jalen Johnson is capable of putting up big numbers across the board. Alexander-Walker might be the most improved player. CJ McCollum can put up shots. But when it’s crunch time, how do they match whatever Brunson is doing? And while their rebounding has been really good, are we sure the Hawks’ frontcourt can keep Mitchell Robinson off the boards for extending possessions?
How did their season series go? It’s 1-1 so far, with their final game happening on Monday. They last played each other in late December and early January, before the Trae Young trade, though he played only in the first game.
What would be the pick? Knicks in six. The Hawks are dangerous, but a lack of a go-to guy might hurt them.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
What’s the concern for the Cavs? The perimeter defense of this team is going to get picked apart. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are bad defensive players, and teams planning against them from game-to-game could get ugly. It puts even more pressure on these guys to deliver with shot making and creation on the other end. Their consistency in the postseason hasn’t been great. We also haven’t seen this team healthy much, and they have a bad history in the playoffs over the last three years. Will Evan Mobley or the role players be ready to step up and deliver?
What’s the concern for the Raptors? This is not a good or trustworthy offense, and even the Cavs’ defensive holes could be fine against what Toronto does on that end. Not being able to knock down outside shots to keep up with the Cavs’ backcourt would be terrible. If the defense can’t force turnovers, then they may not get enough easy points to go on extended runs.
How did their season series go? The Raptors went 3-0 against the Cavs, but all of those games happened before Thanksgiving. It’s irrelevant as a season series telling us anything.
What would be the pick? Cavs in six. Toronto isn’t reliable enough as an offense to disrupt Cleveland’s defense consistently.
Even with the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard playing some of the best basketball of his career, the Thunder may be too good for anyone. Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images
Western Conference
No. 1 OKC Thunder vs. No. 8 LA Clippers
Why the Clippers as the eighth seed? They shouldn’t have to worry about Portland or Golden State. I’ll give Phoenix the slight edge in a Play-In matchup.
What’s the concern for the Thunder? That they have a conflicting appointment and can’t make the game, thus forfeiting? And this happens enough that they lose four times in the series? Obviously, the presence of Kawhi Leonard is intimidating, and Darius Garland is playing excellent basketball. The Thunder just have to make sure they hit the defensive boards, and they should be fine.
What’s the concern for the Clippers? The Thunder are on a mission of destruction. The Clippers thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those opportunities into quick, easy points. The Thunder are one of the best teams at taking care of the ball. The Clippers would be forced to be perfect in the half court.
How did their season series go? OKC is 2-0 against the Clippers with one game left on April 8. Both of those games happened before Christmas.
What would be the pick? Thunder in four. The Clippers have turned their season around, but this is a different level of opponent.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 7 Phoenix Suns
Why the Suns? The Suns should be at home for the Play-In, and a healthy enough team should secure the seventh seed.
What’s the concern for the Spurs? The lack of experience, and they do turn the ball over quite a bit. The Spurs also aren’t an elite 3-point shooting team. Maybe all of those things manifest themselves against a Suns team that can really shoot. And Phoenix is good at forcing turnovers for quick strikes. If the Spurs don’t know how to manage those tough moments, then maybe there’s a threat.
What’s the concern for the Suns? Victor Wembanyama can eat planets, and he’s figuring out how to destroy entire solar systems. There is no matching up with Wemby, and that cute little idea of putting Dillon Brooks on him to irritate Wemby wouldn’t work either. The Suns may not have the athlete to keep up with the Spurs in a playoff series.
How did their season series go? It’s tied 2-2. The Suns won the two games in November. The Spurs won the two games after the All-Star break.
What would be the pick? Spurs in five. Phoenix can steal a game at home, but the Spurs are too good now.
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers versus No. 6 Houston Rockets
What’s the concern for the Lakers? The Lakers haven’t outright resolved any concern with their team defense. It’s looked solid-to-good recently, but those are random regular-season games. If they can’t find that chemistry on defense in the playoffs, then that could cure a lot of what ails the Rockets. Even without Steven Adams, the Lakers may struggle to battle the size of Houston. That could help Houston’s defense lock in.
What’s the concern for the Rockets? This team is a mess chemistry-wise, and it’s terrible in the clutch. The Rockets continue to struggle to score in tight games, and that’s not going to bode well going against Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. The Rockets likely can’t keep up there, and their clutch defense has proven to have the same resistance as a swinging saloon door. This is proving to be a bad matchup for the Rockets across the board.
How did their season series go? The Lakers are 2-1 against Houston this season. The Rockets beat them on Christmas, but the Lakers won consecutive games in mid-March in Houston.
What would be the pick? Lakers in five. The Rockets haven’t shown enough resolve or chemistry to believe they can do this.
No. 4 Denver Nuggets versus No. 5 Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s the concern for the Nuggets? They haven’t really been healthy all season long, and they’re still battling injuries. Nikola Jokić hasn’t looked nearly as spry or healthy since coming back from his knee injury in the middle of the season. Aaron Gordon has been battling a hamstring issue for a year. This team isn’t maximizing its potential going into the playoffs, and that’s bad in a matchup against Minnesota.
What’s the concern for the Wolves? The Wolves beat the Nuggets in a playoff series two years ago, but that was with Karl-Anthony Towns showing extra size to combat Jokić. This time with Julius Randle there, the Wolves might not have enough height and length to slow him down. That, coupled with several good defenders available to try to wear down Anthony Edwards, takes the Wolves out of their rhythm. Not to mention, the Wolves turn it over a lot in the clutch. Can’t do that against Jokić.
How did their season series go? Denver is 3-1 against Minnesota this season. Two of the wins happened in the first three weeks. The Nuggets also beat the Wolves on Christmas. The Wolves won in early March with Gordon missing the game.
What would be the pick? Wolves in seven. If Denver can prove it’s healthy, that changes the series, but the Nuggets are vulnerable enough to get beaten by Minnesota again.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic