[ESPN] 2026年NBA季后赛：重大悬念、战绩预测及看点指南

ESPN · 2026 年3 月 18 日 12:10

By NBA Insiders | ESPN, 2026-03-18 19:00:00

NBA 2025-26赛季常规赛距离收官转入季后赛阶段已不足一个月。随着东西部球队努力锁定季后赛席位——或将目光转向休赛期，全联盟的竞争正趋于白热化。

随着季后赛格局不断变动，部分球队正在微调并评估表现，而另一些球队则在思考下赛季阵容可能发生的巨变。无论排名如何，常规赛最后一个月对所有30支球队来说都是忙碌的，尤其是那些正在争夺季后赛或附加赛排位的球队。

我们的 ESPN 专家团将解答东西部争冠球队面临的最大疑问，并讨论各队在剩余常规赛中的关注焦点。

跳转至相关话题：
东部： BOS | CLE | DET | NYK | MIL
西部： GSW | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
全联盟通用问题

东部球队面临的最大疑问

底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons) 赛季末陷入挣扎的原因是什么？他们在季后赛中该如何调整？

自全明星赛以来，活塞的防守有所下滑，这导致了一些令人疑虑的失利。在40胜13负的开局中，他们的防守效率高居联盟第二（每100回合失分108.3分）。自全明星赛后取得9胜6负期间，底特律的防守虽仍排在前十，但每100回合失分升至112.1分。他们的超能力是确保对手无法发挥出最佳水平。

到了季后赛，自主进攻创造力将成为问题，目前他们能围绕凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 所做的调整也有限。但他们可以控制防守强度，找回防守强度将对本赛季的成功大有裨益。 —— 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)

波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics) 在接下来的一个月里将如何分配杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的出场时间？

与第一周的方式类似：逐渐增加他的上场时间，为波士顿期待的季后赛长跑做好准备。在伤愈复出的前三场比赛中，塔图姆上场27分钟，随后在第四和第五场增加到32分钟。凯尔特人还有一个月的时间让他恢复到季后赛的工作强度，预计他们会充分利用这段时间。 —— 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)

在解雇汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 一年后，纽约尼克斯队 (New York Knicks) 的情况变好了吗？

数据上显示纽约的表现比去年同期多赢了一场，但感觉并非如此。尼克斯在本赛季有所进步，进攻效率排名前五，防守效率排名前十，均优于上赛季。这很大程度上归功于人们对锡伯杜执教球队防守历史级强大的固有印象，以及尼克斯本赛季起伏不定的状态和巨大且往往令人窒息的期望。随着迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 采用更深厚的轮换阵容，首发球员的上场时间有所减少。

现在的氛围感觉不太好——但去年也不怎么样。真正的考验将在5月，甚至可能是6月到来。时间的流逝似乎给去年加了一层滤镜，掩盖了一些事实。尼克斯面前摆着一个机会，是时候意识到这一点了。 —— 古德威尔 (Goodwill)

詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 是如何让克利夫兰骑士队 (Cleveland Cavaliers) 确信他能帮助球队超越活塞、凯尔特人和尼克斯的？

自交易得到哈登以来，骑士取得了12胜6负的战绩，其中哈登在场时为11胜4负，球队看起来更像赛季初那支被视为分区夺冠热门的球队了。骑士自交易截止日以来拥有联盟第二高的进攻效率，哈登的传球提升了球队在这一端的表现：他减轻了多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 过重的负担，激活了贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 的挡拆，并为身边的射手提供了轻松的传球和空位机会。

对骑士来说最重要的一点是，哈登的出勤率很高，这是他们想要升级达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 的关键原因，也是主教练肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 告诉 ESPN 哈登的到来让球队“重拾了信心”的原因。 —— 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)

接下来的一个月将如何影响扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和道格·里弗斯 (Doc Rivers) 在密尔沃基的未来？

影响不大。在与阿德托昆博长达一年的对峙中，时间一直是雄鹿的退路。尽管赛季表现令人失望，但球队一直坚称仍有足够的时间来实现赛季内的逆转，重新打造争冠实力，或说服阿德托昆博再次续约留队。

然而，排名的现实（落后第10名5.5个胜场）以及密尔沃基与真正竞争者之间的鸿沟是显而易见的。无论赛季最后一个月如何结束，雄鹿都必须在今年夏天面对这一现实。 —— 科利尔 (Collier)

东部赛季末预测排名

东部联盟预测排名

球队	预测最终战绩
1. 底特律活塞	58-24
2. 波士顿凯尔特人	54-28
3. 纽约尼克斯	53-29
4. 克利夫兰骑士	51-31
5. 奥兰多魔术	46-36
6. 多伦多猛龙	46-36
7. 迈阿密热火	46-36
8. 亚特兰大老鹰	44-38
9. 费城76人	44-38
10. 夏洛特黄蜂	42-40
11. 密尔沃基雄鹿	34-48
12. 芝加哥公牛	33-49
13. 布鲁克林篮网	21-61
14. 华盛顿奇才	19-63
15. 印第安纳步行者	19-63

—	—
预测数据来自 ESPN 篮球实力指数 (BPI)，统计截至3月16日所有比赛。

东部赛程中哪场比赛是你最关注的？

我要耍个赖选两场，因为多伦多猛龙队 (Toronto Raptors) 和迈阿密热火队 (Miami Heat) 将于4月7日和4月9日在多伦多交手。截至周二下午，多伦多领先迈阿密半个胜场，因此这两场系列赛的结果可能决定哪支球队能直接获得季后赛席位，哪支球队必须在棘手的附加赛中突围。 —— 扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)

季后赛席位争夺战的其他重要比赛：

奥兰多魔术 vs 猛龙：3月29日
热火 vs 猛龙：4月7日
亚特兰大老鹰 vs 热火：4月12日
老鹰 vs 魔术：4月1日
费城76人 vs 热火：3月30日

西部球队面临的最大疑问

距离季后赛还有一个月的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 的伤病问题有多令人担忧？

杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 的腿筋伤势是雷霆目前唯一重大的伤病隐忧。威廉姆斯在全明星赛前复出的第二场比赛中再次拉伤，俄克拉荷马城必须谨慎对待。威廉姆斯此前因休赛期手腕手术缺席了前19场比赛，且在过去两个月里几乎一直处于缺阵状态，球队希望他能在季后赛开始前通过比赛找回节奏。

雷霆有资本保持耐心，因为本赛季在威廉姆斯缺阵的情况下，他们取得了36胜8负的战绩，并且领先马刺3个胜场稳居西部第一。但俄克拉荷马城深知威廉姆斯对卫冕希望的重要性。他在去年总决赛第五场砍下40分的表现，可能是队史上最重要的个人表演。 —— 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)

维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) 尚未锁定季后赛。在常规赛最后的冲刺阶段，他们的信心程度如何？

信心正处于巅峰，尤其是在圣安东尼奥在六场主场比赛中取得了5胜1负的战绩，战胜了活塞、洛杉矶快船 (LA Clippers)、火箭、凯尔特人和黄蜂等预期的季后赛球队。马刺在进入这一系列主场比赛时，希望通过面对不同的打法、人员配置和潜在场上局势来磨炼状态，为最后的冲刺以及自2019年以来的首个季后赛席位做好准备。

文班亚马在主场系列赛中因脚踝伤势缺席了一场，但他回归后连续第五场以50%或更高的命中率砍下25分以上，追平了拉马库斯·阿尔德里奇 (LaMarcus Aldridge)（2018年）保持的过去25个赛季马刺球员此类表现的第三长纪录。 —— 莱特 (Wright)

在连续两次打入西部决赛后，明尼苏达森林狼队 (Minnesota Timberwolves) 在接下来的一个月里能做些什么来证明球队已为再次深入季后赛做好了准备？

如果森林狼能建立起一些稳定性，那将是理想的。明尼苏达这种过山车般的表现有时令人抓狂，但过去几个赛季也经历了不少起伏，最终都以打入分区决赛告终。森林狼本赛季在防守端大幅下滑，防守效率排名第九，而上赛季排名第六，2023-24赛季排名第一。

他们在全明星赛后表现尤为糟糕，每100回合失分116.4分，在此期间排名联盟第21位。如果明尼苏达想要再次走得更远，这种趋势必须终止。森林狼奇才安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 也在应对右膝酸痛，他将在1到2周内接受重新评估。 —— 麦克马洪 (MacMahon)

休斯顿火箭队 (Houston Rockets) 在没有正统控球后卫的情况下能在西部季后赛立足吗？

当然可以。但如果他们不能解决失误和关键球处理等困扰球队整个赛季的问题，恐怕走不远。据一名助理教练透露，在没有正统控卫的情况下，火箭相信可以通过战术设计来弥补这一位置的缺陷。该教练表示，火箭可以设计战术让阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 在进攻端更有效率，同时通过战术调整在防守端保护防守短板里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)。

休斯顿还需要中锋阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 摆脱近期的防守挣扎，同时强化他作为进攻枢纽的敏锐度。 —— 莱特 (Wright)

洛杉矶湖人队 (Los Angeles Lakers) 如何缓解这样一个事实：从数据上看，当三位球星——卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 同时在场时，球队效率反而较低？

无论他的回答是源于经验、耐心还是纯粹的信念，湖人主教练 JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick) 在被问及球队在常规赛冲刺阶段及季后赛的前景时，展现了清晰的愿景。

“我有信心我们会找到解决办法，”雷迪克上周表示，“至于如何找到，那就是……有时你必须每天去摸索。”

虽然三巨头同时在场时的净效率值为正（共同出战的20场比赛中为+3.2），但他们两两配对的效果各不相同。詹姆斯和东契奇同时在场时的净效率值为-2.1，詹姆斯和里夫斯为+1.2，里夫斯和东契奇则为+8.0。雷迪克尝试通过两种方式来磨合：一是错开他们的上场时间，让詹姆斯更多地在第二阵容持球；二是要求詹姆斯在与另外两人同场时，更多地扮演辅助角色而非核心。

“我知道他渴望胜利，他想尽一切可能帮助这支球队赢球，”雷迪克在谈到詹姆斯时说道。 —— 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)

斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 的回归足以提振金州勇士队 (Golden State Warriors) 吗？

达到争冠边缘的水平？不。吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 的前交叉韧带 (ACL) 撕裂非正式地终结了这些梦想。但只要克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 能够出战，且库里回归并为附加赛做好准备，剩余阵容中仍有一支具备竞争力的球队。目前看来，勇士越来越有可能要在第9名对阵第10名的位置上开打。

这意味着他们需要在一场定胜负的比赛中击败波特兰开拓者队 (Portland Trail Blazers)，然后击败菲尼克斯太阳队 (Phoenix Suns) 和洛杉矶快船队 (LA Clippers) 之间的负者。如果他们能做到这一点——这需要库里——他们将获得挑战西部头号种子（很可能是俄克拉荷马城雷霆）的机会。本赛季重回竞争行列的道路非常艰巨。 —— 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)

西部赛季末预测排名

西部联盟预测排名

球队	预测最终战绩
1. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆	63-19
2. 圣安东尼奥马刺	60-22
3. 洛杉矶湖人	51-31
4. 丹佛掘金	51-31
5. 休斯顿火箭	50-32
6. 明尼苏达森林狼	49-33
7. 菲尼克斯太阳	46-36
8. 洛杉矶快船	44-38
9. 金州勇士	40-42
10. 波特兰开拓者	39-43
11. 孟菲斯灰熊	28-54
12. 新奥尔良鹈鹕	28-54
13. 达拉斯独行侠	28-54
14. 犹他爵士	23-59
15. 萨克拉门托国王	22-60

—	—
预测数据来自 ESPN 篮球实力指数 (BPI)，统计截至3月16日所有比赛。

西部赛程中哪场比赛是你最关注的？

丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets) 凭借剩余赛程相对轻松，应该能稳居西部前六。（掘金剩余赛程中最艰难的两场是收官阶段对阵雷霆和马刺，但届时这两支球队可能已经锁定了排名并开始为季后赛轮休。）

但如果掘金在3月24日输给太阳，情况可能会变得有趣。丹佛肯定希望避免参加附加赛，以及潜在的季后赛首轮对阵圣安东尼奥或俄克拉荷马城的局面。 —— 克拉姆 (Kram)

季后赛席位争夺战的其他重要比赛：

森林狼 vs 火箭：4月10日
太阳 vs 湖人：4月10日
湖人 vs 火箭：3月18日
掘金 vs 太阳：3月24日
火箭 vs 太阳：4月7日

全联盟顶级悬念

MVP 争夺战将如何收场？

常规赛还剩几周，联盟最高个人荣誉的争夺已演变为三人转。去年得主、雷霆球星谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 是再次获奖的热门，三届得主尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和年轻奇才文班亚马紧随其后。这可能取决于西部的最终排名。

如果俄克拉荷马城保持榜首，谢伊应该会蝉联。但如果雷霆被马刺超越？那么，文班在同一赛季包揽 MVP 和 DPOY（年度最佳防守球员）的梦想——此前只有迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan)、哈基姆·奥拉朱旺 (Hakeem Olajuwon) 和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博达成过——将触手可及。 —— 邦坦普斯 (Bontemps)

哪场排名之争对乐透抽签最重要？

显然，是你支持的那支球队。但客观来看，印第安纳步行者队 (Indiana Pacers) 是处境最危险的球队。印第安纳目前排名垫底，且在交易得到伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 后，他们的选秀权仅有前四顺位保护。步行者必须保持在倒数前三，以保留 52.1% 的概率保住选秀权——这基本上就是一场胜算稍大的抛硬币游戏。

如果步行者运气够好保住了选秀权，他们下赛季将拥有健康的泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)、祖巴茨以及第二位年轻球星，成为一支季后赛级别的球队。如果保不住，快船将白白获得一个5到9顺位的建队基石，这两支球队的命运将截然不同。 —— 杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo)

谁是值得关注的季后赛黑马？

防守效率前五的球队包括东西部的前两名（俄克拉荷马城、底特律、圣安东尼奥和波士顿），以及排名靠后的热火。但热火此前有过以低顺位杀入总决赛的先例。他们近期的反弹使他们成为极具竞争力的候选者，尤其是如果巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 和凯莱尔·韦尔 (Kel’el Ware) 组成的内线双塔，能与东部所有的双塔阵容抗衡的话。

截至周二下午，在过去10场比赛中，阿德巴约和韦尔同时在场时的净效率值高达+22.2。 —— 克拉姆 (Kram)

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

点击查看原文：2026 NBA playoffs: Biggest questions, projections, what to watch

2026 NBA playoffs: Biggest questions, projections, what to watch

The NBA is less than a month away from turning the page on the 2025-26 regular season to the playoffs. Competition across the league is intensifying as Eastern and Western conference teams are working to secure their spots in the postseason – or turning their attention to the offseason.

Some teams are fine-tuning and evaluating their play as the postseason landscape remains in flux. Others are grappling with how different their squads could look next season. Regardless of the standings, the last month of the regular season is hectic for all 30 teams, especially those positioning for seeding in the playoffs – or play-in tournament.

Our ESPN insiders answer the biggest questions facing the East and West title contenders and discuss what each is focusing on in their remaining regular-season games.

Jump to a topic:
East: BOS | CLE | DET | NYK | MIL
West: GSW | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
Leaguewide questions

Biggest questions facing East teams

What’s been the source of the Detroit Pistons’ late-season struggles and how can they adjust in the postseason?

The Pistons’ defense has taken a dip since the All-Star break, and it’s contributed to losses that have brought about doubts. In their 40-13 start, their defense was second in the league at 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Since going 9-6 after the break, Detroit’s defense is still top 10, but at 112.1 points per 100 possessions. Their superpower is making sure teams can’t play their best.

Their shot creation will come up in the postseason, and there’s only so much they can do around Cade Cunningham in the meantime. But they can control defensive intensity, and rediscovering that will go a long way toward success this season. – Vincent Goodwill

How will the Boston Celtics handle Jayson Tatum**'s minutes over the next month?**

In a similar fashion to how they have the first week: gradually ramping up his minutes to prepare him for what Boston hopes is a deep playoff run. In his first three games, Tatum played 27 minutes before increasing to 32 minutes in his fourth and fifth games. The Celtics have another month to build him up to a playoff workload and expect them to take full advantage of that. – Tim Bontemps

Are the New York Knicks better off one year after firing Tom Thibodeau?

The numbers say New York is a game better than last year’s pace, but it doesn’t feel like it. The Knicks have improved with a top-five offense and a top-10 defense, both better than last season. That’s largely attributed to the narrative around Thibs teams being historically great defensively, the Knicks’ up-and-down nature this season and the enormous, often suffocating expectations. The starters’ minutes are down as Mike Brown has a deeper rotation.

The vibes don’t feel great right now – but the vibes weren’t great last year, either. The true test will come in May and possibly June. The passage of time seems to color last year in ways that aren’t necessarily true. There’s an opportunity in front of the Knicks, and it’s time they recognize that. – Goodwill

How has James Harden given the Cleveland Cavaliers the confidence that he can help push the team past the Pistons, Celtics and Knicks?

The Cavs have gone 12-6 since making the trade for Harden, including going 11-4 in games with him in the lineup, and are looking much more like the team that began the season as one of the favorites in the conference. Cleveland has the second-best offensive rating in the NBA since the deadline as Harden’s passing has elevated the team on that side of the ball: He’s relieved an overtaxed Donovan Mitchell, unlocked Jarrett Allen in the pick-and-roll and delivered easy passes and wide-open looks for the shooters around him.

Most importantly for the Cavs, Harden has been available, a key reason why they wanted an upgrade for Darius Garland and why coach Kenny Atkinson told ESPN Harden’s arrival has given his team a “renewed confidence.” – Jamal Collier

How will the next month impact Giannis Antetokounmpo’s and Doc Rivers’ futures in Milwaukee?

Not much. Time has been the Bucks’ fallback plan throughout their yearlong stare-down with Antetokounmpo. The team has insisted throughout its disappointing campaign that there was still enough time either for an in-season turnaround, to rebuild as a contender or to convince Antetokounmpo to sign another extension to remain in Milwaukee.

Yet, the reality of the standings (trailing the No. 10 seed by 5½ games) and the chasm between Milwaukee and true contenders is evident. No matter how the final month of the season ends, the Bucks will have to face that reality this summer. – Collier

Projected end-of-season East standings

Projected Eastern Conference Standings

Team	Projected Final Record
1. Detroit Pistons	58-24
2. Boston Celtics	54-28
3. New York Knicks	53-29
4. Cleveland Cavaliers	51-31
5. Orlando Magic	46-36
6. Toronto Raptors	46-36
7. Miami Heat	46-36
8. Atlanta Hawks	44-38
9. Philadelphia 76ers	44-38
10. Charlotte Hornets	42-40
11. Milwaukee Bucks	34-48
12. Chicago Bulls	33-49
13. Brooklyn Nets	21-61
14. Washington Wizards	19-63
15. Indiana Pacers	19-63

—	—
Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, through every March 16 game.

What’s the one East game you have circled on your calendar?

I’m going to cheat and pick two because the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat meet on April 7 and April 9 in Toronto. As of Tuesday afternoon, Toronto leads Miami by a half-game, so the outcome of that two-game series could determine which team receives an automatic playoff berth and which team must navigate a tricky play-in field. – Zach Kram

Other important games for the playoff race:

Orlando Magic at Raptors: March 29
Heat at Raptors: April 7
Atlanta Hawks at Heat: April 12
Hawks at Magic: April 1
Philadelphia 76ers at Heat: March 30

Biggest questions facing West teams

How concerning is the Oklahoma City Thunder**'s injury issues one month from the playoffs?**

Jalen Williams’ hamstring is the Thunder’s one significant injury concern at this point. Oklahoma City will have to proceed with caution after he aggravated the strain in his second game after returning just before the All-Star break. The hope is that Williams, who missed the first 19 games while recovering from offseason wrist surgery and has been sidelined almost all of the past two months, will be able to play his way into a rhythm by the time the playoffs begin.

The Thunder can afford to be patient as they are 36-8 without Williams in the lineup this season and have an three-game cushion over the Spurs at the top of the West standings. But Oklahoma City knows how critical Williams is to its hopes of defending a title. His 40-point outing in Game 5 of last season’s NBA Finals might have been the most important individual performance in franchise history. – Tim MacMahon

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs haven’t yet made the playoffs. How high is their confidence level heading into the regular season’s final stretch?

It’s soaring, especially after San Antonio racked up a 5-1 record in a six-game homestand that featured impressive victories over expected postseason participants Detroit, the LA Clippers, Rockets, Celtics and Hornets. The Spurs entered the homestand welcoming the diversity of playing styles, personnel and potential on-court situations they would encounter as they looked to sharpen up for the stretch run and their first playoff berth since 2019.

Wembanyama missed one game during the homestand due to an ankle injury, but he returned to produce his fifth straight game with 25 points on 50% shooting or better from the field to tie LaMarcus Aldridge (2018) for the third-longest streak of such games by a Spur in the past 25 seasons. -- Michael C. Wright

After back-to-back trips to the West finals, what can the Minnesota Timberwolves do in the next month to show that the team is ready for another deep playoff run?

It would be ideal if the Timberwolves could establish some consistency. Minnesota’s roller-coaster act can be maddening, but the past couple of seasons featured plenty of ups and downs and ended with conference finals runs. The Wolves have slipped significantly on the defensive end this season, ranking ninth in efficiency, down from sixth last season and first in 2023-24.

They’ve been especially bad since the All-Star break, allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 21st during that span. That is a trend that must end for Minnesota to make another run. Wolves phenom Anthony Edwards is also dealing with right knee soreness, and he will be reevaluated in one to two weeks. -- MacMahon

Can the Houston Rockets play in the Western Conference playoffs without a true point guard?

Absolutely. But it’s unlikely they’ll play long if they can’t shore up some of the other issues – such as turnovers and closing games – that have affected this team all season. Without a true point guard, Houston believes it can scheme around deficiencies at the position, according to an assistant, who said the Rockets could draw up plays that make Amen Thompson more effective offensively, while manipulating schemes to protect defensive liability Reed Sheppard on the other end.

Houston also needs center Alperen Sengun to shake off his recent defensive struggles, while sharpening his acumen as a hub on offense. -- Wright

How are the Los Angeles Lakers mitigating the fact that, by the numbers, they’re a less effective team with their three stars (Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves) on the floor together?

Whether his answer was fueled by experience, patience, or just blind faith, Lakers coach JJ Redick presented a clear vision when asked about his team’s chances in the final stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs.

“I’m confident we’re going to find it,” Redick said last week. “How we’re going to find it, that’s where it’s … you got to figure it out on a daily basis sometimes.”

While their big three’s net rating is a positive (plus-3.2 in 20 games played with one another), their individual pairings are not all alike. James and Doncic have a net rating of minus-2.1, James and Reaves are plus-1.2 – Reaves and Doncic are plus-8.0. Redick has attempted to smooth the fit two ways: by staggering the minutes they play together, allowing James to play more on ball with the second unit, and by asking James to embrace being more complementary than featured when on the floor with those two.

“I know he wants to win, and he wants to do everything possible to help this team win,” Redick said of James. – Dave McMenamin

Will Stephen Curry’s return be enough to buoy the Golden State Warriors**?**

Into any level of fringe contention? Nope. Jimmy Butler III’s ACL tear unofficially ended those dreams. But there’s still a competitive team within the leftover roster, as long as Kristaps Porzingis is available and Curry is back and revved up for the play-in bracket. It’s becoming increasingly clear the Warriors will have to play out of the nine against 10 slot.

That means they will need to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in an elimination game and then beat the loser of a matchup that would currently be between the Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers. If they pull that off – needing Curry – they will be rewarded with the West’s top seed, likely the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the first round. The path back to relevancy this season is daunting. – Anthony Slater

Projected end-of-season West standings

Projected Western Conference Standings

Team	Projected Final Record
1. Oklahoma City Thunder	63-19
2. San Antonio Spurs	60-22
3. Los Angeles Lakers	51-31
4. Denver Nuggets	51-31
5. Houston Rockets	50-32
6. Minnesota Timberwolves	49-33
7. Phoenix Suns	46-36
8. LA Clippers	44-38
9. Golden State Warriors	40-42
10. Portland Trail Blazers	39-43
11. Memphis Grizzlies	28-54
12. New Orleans Pelicans	28-54
13. Dallas Mavericks	28-54
14. Utah Jazz	23-59
15. Sacramento Kings	22-60

—	—
Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, through every March 16 game.

What’s the one West game you have circled on your calendar?

The Denver Nuggets should remain a top-six team in the West, thanks to a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. (Two of the Nuggets’ hardest remaining games are against the Thunder and Spurs to close the regular season, but those teams could be locked into their seeds and resting for the playoffs at that point.)

But if the Nuggets lose to the Suns on March 24, things could get interesting. Denver would surely prefer to avoid the play-in tournament and a potential first-round matchup with either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. – Kram