By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2026-04-14 19:00:00
关于体育迷，有一个不争的事实：大家都爱对阵图。
那么，为什么要让大学篮球独占这份乐趣呢？随着NBA季后赛将于本周拉开帷幕，让我们借鉴一下“三月疯狂”的剧本，填好一份NBA季后赛对阵图。
首先，我们将根据ESPN的篮球实力指数（BPI）填入预计从附加赛中突围的四支球队：
- 东部第7种子： 费城76人
- 东部第8种子： 夏洛特黄蜂
- 西部第7种子： 菲尼克斯太阳
- 西部第8种子： 波特兰开拓者
随后，我们将预测剩余的季后赛结果，将16支球队逐一筛选，直到决出那支在6月举起拉里·奥布莱恩杯的唯一胜者。
东部首轮
底特律活塞 (1) vs. 夏洛特黄蜂 (8)
尽管种子顺位差距悬殊，但这两支球队的特点非常相似。自1月1日以来，夏洛特的净效率排名联盟第二，而底特律位居第三。黄蜂队拥有顶级的进攻，而活塞队则拥有强悍的防守。两支球队都由众多乐透秀领衔，外加一名此前签下双向合同的关键贡献者（底特律的达尼斯·詹金斯 (Daniss Jenkins)，夏洛特的穆萨·迪亚巴特 (Moussa Diabate)）。
两队还在2月份发生过一场斗殴，导致迪亚巴特、迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges)、杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 和 艾赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 被禁赛。
这些因素共同构成了一场比以往更具吸引力的“1对8”系列赛。但最终，活塞应该会晋级，因为他们出众的身材优势让其在面对手感火热的黄蜂时占据对位优势。常规赛中，底特律对阵夏洛特取得了3胜0负的战绩，且在这些比赛的禁区得分上以188-96遥遥领先。
预测结果： 活塞 4-2 胜
波士顿凯尔特人 (2) vs. 费城76人 (7)
不要太在意双方2-2平的常规赛战绩：自11月11日以来，这两支球队仅交手过一次，而且 杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 本赛季从未在对阵费城的比赛中出场。
如果 乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 确定能够出战，76人将是一个有趣的爆冷选项，因为他会给波士顿未经考验的前场防线带来巨大的挑战。
但由于这位76人的MVP中锋可能因紧急阑尾切除术缺阵，而波士顿的轮换阵容保持完全健康，因此没有理由指望费城能对东部最完整的球队构成威胁。
预测结果： 凯尔特人 4-1 胜
纽约尼克斯 (3) vs. 亚特兰大老鹰 (6)
纽约和亚特兰大在上周上演了一场精彩的季后赛预演，当时两队在尼克斯以108-105取胜的比赛中都缩短了轮换。两队之间的差距微乎其微，老鹰后卫 CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 那个本可以扳平比分的半场远投仅迟到了零点几秒。
那场比赛证明了亚特兰大在本系列赛中确实有爆冷的机会。老鹰拥有一套强大的首发阵容，且近几个月来状态火热，戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 和 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 将全力限制 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，这必将是一场视觉盛宴。但尼克斯更出色的深度，尤其是前场深度，将成为胜负手：X因素 米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 本赛季在对阵亚特兰大的比赛中，场均19.0分钟内能贡献10.5个篮板（其中4个前场篮板）和2.0次盖帽。
预测结果： 尼克斯 4-3 胜
克利夫兰骑士 (4) vs. 多伦多猛龙 (5)
克利夫兰的天赋高于多伦多，但猛龙在常规赛中以3-0横扫了对手；凯尔特人是本赛季东部唯一另一支对阵骑士完成横扫的球队。
但不要过分解读这些常规赛结果：这三场比赛都发生在感恩节之前，这意味着当时 詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 还没加入骑士阵容，而 小拉里·南斯 (Larry Nance Jr.)、德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter)（两次）和 朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball)（两次）因各种伤病在这些比赛中为骑士首发。此外，克利夫兰在对阵多伦多时的三分命中率低得离谱，仅为28%，而全赛季平均水平为36%。而猛龙本赛季的三分命中数排名联盟第26位，并不擅长利用克利夫兰防守外线的弱点。
所有这些因素都表明，猛龙无法将常规赛的成功延续到季后赛，骑士应该能相对轻松地晋级。
预测结果： 骑士 4-1 胜
东部半决赛
底特律活塞 (1) vs. 克利夫兰骑士 (4)
尽管活塞是更高顺位的种子，常规赛胜场比骑士多出8场，但克利夫兰很可能才是这轮系列赛的热门：根据DraftKings的数据，骑士进入东部决赛的赔率排名第二，而活塞仅排第四。
但我认为这种共识是错误的。首先，底特律坚如磐石的防守（联盟第2）与克利夫兰并不稳定的防线（第15）之间的差距，远大于两队进攻端（骑士第6，活塞第9）的差距。
其次，克利夫兰赛季末的冲刺在某种程度上是海市蜃楼。自2月7日哈登代表球队出战首场比赛以来，骑士取得了21胜9负的战绩，但其中几场胜利是在面对布鲁克林、密尔沃基、芝加哥、犹他州和印第安纳时赢得惊险万分。在那段时间里，骑士的净效率为+4.8，而活塞同期为+9.0。
那段时期的一个细节让我确信了活塞已经做好了季后赛准备：在 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺萎陷缺阵期间，底特律取得了9胜3负的战绩，其中两场失利还是在加时赛。这支东部头名活塞将完成一场表面上的逆袭——至少根据博彩公司的说法是这样——并杀入分区决赛。
预测结果： 活塞 4-3 胜
波士顿凯尔特人 (2) vs. 纽约尼克斯 (3)
尼克斯并不畏惧凯尔特人，因为他们在常规赛中以3-1领先，并在去年春天次轮爆冷淘汰了对手。
但波士顿的稳定性，与纽约整个赛季像跷跷板一样的起伏相比，使其成为了一个更稳妥的选择。在某些方面，凯尔特人去年在第二轮出局是非常不走运的；根据GeniusIQ的数据，他们在整个系列赛中拥有更好的出手质量，但中途因塔图姆跟腱撕裂而失去了核心。本赛季他们将完成复仇，在麦迪逊广场花园——一年前塔图姆受伤的地方——赢下最后一战。
预测结果： 凯尔特人 4-2 胜
东部决赛
底特律活塞 (1) vs. 波士顿凯尔特人 (2)
这场分区决赛对阵在赛季前看起来似乎不太可能，当时活塞看起来像是一支正在崛起但尚显稚嫩的竞争者，而凯尔特人在没有塔图姆的情况下似乎注定要经历一个“过渡年”。
但现在，这是联盟第二进攻与第二防守之间的强强对话，也可能是年度最佳教练前两名候选人之间的博弈。
要决定哪支球队能进入总决赛，两队侧翼位置的差距可能是决定性的。塔图姆（本赛季未对阵过底特律）、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和 德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 都是攻防兼备的球星，而 奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 和 邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson) 则是单向专家。优势属于波士顿。
预测结果： 凯尔特人 4-2 胜
西部首轮
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (1) vs. 波特兰开拓者 (8)
雷霆在24胜1负的开局中唯一的失利就是输给波特兰，但那是在客场背靠背的第二场，而且俄克拉荷马城在崩盘前曾领先22分。在另外三次交手中，尽管 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 悉数出战，俄克拉荷马城依然分别赢了8分、27分和29分。
在季后赛环境下，雷霆应该会继续保持轻松态势。两队都有令人生畏的外线防守者，但 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 是比阿夫迪亚更出色的头号选择，而且雷霆在得分王身后拥有更多的二号位组织者。
预测结果： 雷霆 4-0 胜
圣安东尼奥马刺 (2) vs. 菲尼克斯太阳 (7)
表面上看，这似乎是一场竞争激烈的系列赛，因为菲尼克斯在11月曾两次击败圣安东尼奥（尽管 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺席了其中一场），并在上个月的交手中仅输了1分。
但圣安东尼奥近期的表现表明，这支2号种子已经提升到了另一个层次，因此系列赛应该会很快结束。马刺自1月底以来的唯一失利是输给掘金（三次）和尼克斯，这两支球队都是3号种子；他们已经数月没有输给过非精英球队了。
预测结果： 马刺 4-0 胜
丹佛掘金 (3) vs. 明尼苏达森林狼 (6)
曾几何时，明尼苏达是掘金的克星，在2024年季后赛到2024-25赛季期间对阵掘金取得了8胜3负。但掘金本赛季对森林狼的处理更加得当，赢得了四次交手中的三次，唯一的失利是在 阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 缺阵的情况下发生的。
掘金以12连胜的姿态进入季后赛，而明尼苏达则在收官阶段步履蹒跚。丹佛在本系列赛中占据优势，因为戈登保持健康，且森林狼针对 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 的多塔防守策略已经失去了效力。约基奇本赛季对阵明尼苏达场均贡献36分、15个篮板和11次助攻，投篮命中率高达65%。
预测结果： 掘金 4-1 胜
洛杉矶湖人 (4) vs. 休斯顿火箭 (5)
即便 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)、弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 和 史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 都有伤在身，这轮系列赛依然星光熠熠，且有一个特别引人注目的看点：在经历过三次总决赛对决后，勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 将首次在非总决赛的季后赛系列赛中相遇。令人惊叹的是，尽管两人合计年龄已达78岁，他们现在依然是各自球队的头号选择。
尽管伤兵满营，湖人在本系列赛中仍有一线生机。根据databallr的数据，本赛季詹姆斯在没有东契奇和里夫斯在场时的阵容净效率为+9.0，而且詹姆斯搭档射手的阵容在他传奇的职业生涯中一直非常成功。但我怀疑在系列赛出人意料的激烈开局后，休斯顿会做出调整并占据上风；火箭的天赋优势太大，即便是詹姆斯也难以逾越。
预测结果： 火箭 4-2 胜
西部半决赛
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (1) vs. 休斯顿火箭 (5)
在雷霆于揭幕战历经两个加时才击败火箭后，休斯顿看起来像是能拉卫冕冠军下马的竞争者。但1月份的一场20分惨败给这种乐观情绪泼了冷水。（火箭对阵俄克拉荷马城的唯一胜利是在吉尔杰斯-亚历山大缺阵的情况下取得的。）
失误将摧毁火箭在这轮系列赛中跟上节奏的机会：根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，俄克拉荷马城的进攻失误率排名联盟第一，防守失误率排名第二，而休斯顿的进攻失误率排在第27位，防守失误率排在第21位。
预测结果： 雷霆 4-1 胜
圣安东尼奥马刺 (2) vs. 丹佛掘金 (3)
期待这轮系列赛会出现大量得分：在两队的前三场比赛中（第四场是常规赛最后一天，许多主力未出战），最终比分分别是139-136、136-131和136-134（加时赛），丹佛赢得了其中的两场。
值得注意的是，文班亚马本赛季仅在两队的一次交手中出场：即4月初掘金以136-134取胜的那场，那堪称赛季最佳比赛。约基奇在职业生涯的七次交锋中一直压制着文班亚马，场均轰下37.3分。
但在这一场注定精彩纷呈、拉锯不断的系列赛中，我给马刺微弱的优势，原因有二。首先是主场优势，圣安东尼奥本赛季主场战绩为32胜8负；仅次于雷霆（34胜7负）。
其次，即便承认约基奇对文班亚马的历史级统治力，但在戈登面临持续伤病风险且 佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 出战成疑的情况下，我更相信圣安东尼奥能找到办法将丹佛的得分限制在130分以下，而不是反过来。马刺本赛季防守效率排名第三，而掘金排名第21。
圣安东尼奥在惊险对决中晋级，而丹佛则连续第三年在分区半决赛中历经七场出局。
预测结果： 马刺 4-3 胜
西部决赛
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (1) vs. 圣安东尼奥马刺 (2)
这十年里，我从未对一场潜在的季后赛系列赛如此兴奋过。在马刺本赛季五次交手中四次击败卫冕冠军后，俄克拉荷马城和圣安东尼奥可能会在这个春天开启一段长达十年的宿敌关系。
俄克拉荷马城拥有宝贵的季后赛经验，并且拥有NBA最出色的关键球得分手。但圣安东尼奥凭借其运动能力、后卫表现以及中锋位置上改变比赛的力量，给卫冕冠军带来了真正的对位难题。
对于雷霆来说，常规赛对阵马刺最令他们恐惧的特征是文班亚马逐场攀升的正负值：
• 21分钟内正负值+21
• 23分钟内正负值+13
• 26分钟内正负值+13
• 28分钟内正负值-14
• 28分钟内正负值+17
在文班亚马在场的五场比赛中，马刺合计正负值为+50，即场均+10——尽管他场均仅出战25分钟。
相比之下，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在对阵圣安东尼奥的四场比赛中，在他场均35.5分钟的出场时间里，雷霆的正负值合计为-1。
文班亚马可能因为他极具侵略性的打法而无法承受更多的时间。本月在丹佛那场惊心动魄的加时赛失利中，当他上场时间达到40分钟时，他显得明显疲惫。
但文班亚马并不需要在季后赛每场都在高海拔地区打40分钟，而且他本赛季曾10次成功超过35分钟。在这些比赛中，他场均贡献30.7分、14.1个篮板、5.0次助攻和4.0次盖帽，三分球场均出手7.3次，命中率44%，罚球场均9.6次，命中率86%。这并不是长时间作战存在问题的证据；如果说有什么的话，事实恰恰相反，当文班亚马增加工作量时，他的数据甚至变得更好了。
如果马刺在文班亚马只打25分钟的情况下就能重创俄克拉荷马城，那么想象一下，当他每场比赛再多打一节时间时，他们能做些什么。
预测结果： 马刺 4-2 胜
NBA总决赛
波士顿凯尔特人 (2) vs. 圣安东尼奥马刺 (2)
凯尔特人和马刺从未在总决赛中相遇，而且两支球队在这个终极舞台上都取得了非凡的成功：波士顿总决赛战绩为18胜5负，而圣安东尼奥为5胜1负。在这场出人意料的巅峰对决中，总有一方要做出让步。
马刺赢得了本赛季的两次交手，其中一场两队几乎所有核心球员都保持健康。（波士顿缺少了 佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard)。）圣安东尼奥依靠巨大的罚球优势取胜，这在总决赛中应该会持续下去，因为凯尔特人本赛季的进攻罚球率排名第30，而马刺的防守罚球率排名第1。
至关重要的是，马刺在三分命中率仅为33%的情况下赢下了这两场比赛，这可能是本系列赛的关键点。由于 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 在防守端收缩禁区，凯尔特人本赛季允许对手出手的远投频率是最高的，他们肯定会对马刺尝试这种策略，因为马刺最大的弱点可能就是外线射手的不确定性。
但马刺的三分球近来有所起色。截至2月4日，他们的三分命中数（场均12.9个）排名第19，命中率（34.6%）排名第24，但自那以后，他们的三分命中数（场均14.7个）排名第八，命中率（37.9%）排名第三。斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在后一段时期的命中率都在40%以上。
我预测马刺将投进足够的空位三分，从而利用波士顿的防守策略，完成一段童话般的旅程——从无缘季后赛到一年后捧起奖杯。文班亚马将追随马刺前辈蒂姆·邓肯和科怀·伦纳德的脚步，在22岁赛季荣膺总决赛MVP。NBA的“文班时代”正式开启。
预测结果： 马刺 4-2 胜
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA playoffs: Predicting each series, including the Finals
2026 NBA playoffs: Predicting each series, including the Finals
Here is a truism about sports fans: Everyone loves brackets.
So why should college basketball get all the fun? With the NBA postseason set to begin this week, let’s take a page out of the March Madness playbook and fill out an NBA playoff bracket.
First, we’ll use ESPN’s Basketball Power Index to fill in the four teams projected to advance out of the play-in tournament:
- East 7 seed: Philadelphia 76ers
- East 8 seed: Charlotte Hornets
- West 7 seed: Phoenix Suns
- West 8 seed: Portland Trail Blazers
Then, we’ll predict the rest of the playoff outcomes, whittling 16 teams down to one raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
East first round
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Charlotte Hornets (8)
Despite the gap in seeds, these teams have a similar profile. Since Jan. 1, Charlotte ranks second in the league in net rating, while Detroit is third. The Hornets boast an elite offense, and the Pistons have a strong defense. Both teams are led by a host of players who were lottery picks, plus one key contributor who was previously on a two-way deal (Daniss Jenkins for Detroit, Moussa Diabate for Charlotte).
The two teams also engaged in a brawl in February, leading to suspensions for Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart.
Those ingredients set the stage for a much more compelling 1 vs. 8 series than usual. But ultimately, the Pistons should advance because their superior size makes them a bad matchup for the scorching Hornets. Detroit was 3-0 against Charlotte in the regular season and outscored the Hornets 188-96 in the paint during those games.
The pick: Pistons in 6
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)
Don’t pay much attention to the season series, which was tied 2-2: These teams have played just once since Nov. 11, and Jayson Tatum didn’t play in any matchup against Philadelphia this season.
The 76ers would be an intriguing upset pick if Joel Embiid were definitely available because he would present an imposing challenge for Boston’s untested front line.
But with the 76ers’ MVP center potentially sidelined because of an emergency appendectomy, at the same time that Boston’s rotation is fully healthy, there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to challenge the most complete team in the conference.
The pick: Celtics in 5
New York Knicks (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)
New York and Atlanta staged an entertaining playoff preview last week, when both teams shortened their rotations in a 108-105 Knicks win. The margin between the two teams was incredibly close, as Hawks guard CJ McCollum’s would-be tying half-court heave came a fraction of a second too late.
That game demonstrated that Atlanta has a real chance for an upset in this series. The Hawks have a strong starting five and have been hot for months, and Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make a spectacle out of trying to slow down Jalen Brunson. But the Knicks’ superior depth, particularly in the frontcourt, will be the difference: X factor Mitchell Robinson averaged 10.5 rebounds (four offensive) and 2.0 blocks in 19.0 minutes per game against Atlanta this season.
The pick: Knicks in 7
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)
Cleveland has more talent than Toronto, but Toronto swept the season series 3-0; the Celtics are the only other Eastern Conference team that did so against the Cavaliers this season.
But don’t read too much into those regular-season results: All three games took place before Thanksgiving, meaning James Harden wasn’t on the Cavaliers’ roster yet, and Larry Nance Jr., De’Andre Hunter (twice) and Lonzo Ball (twice) started in those games for the Cavs due to various injuries. Cleveland also made an unsustainably low 28% of its 3-point attempts against Toronto, compared with 36% over the full season. And Toronto, which ranked 26th in made 3s this season, isn’t well-suited to take advantage of Cleveland’s weakness defending the arc.
All of those factors suggest that the Raptors won’t carry their regular-season success into the postseason, and the Cavaliers should advance with relative ease.
The pick: Cavaliers in 5
East semifinals
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
Even though the Pistons are the higher seed, winning eight more regular-season games than the Cavaliers, Cleveland would likely be the favorite in this series: According to DraftKings, the Cavaliers have the second-best odds to reach the Finals in the East, while the Pistons rank fourth.
But I think that consensus view is wrong. First, there’s a much wider gap between Detroit’s rock-solid defense (No. 2 in the league) and Cleveland’s shaky unit (No. 15) than between the two offenses (No. 6 for Cleveland, No. 9 for Detroit).
Second, Cleveland’s late-season surge is something of a mirage. The Cavaliers are 21-9 since Feb. 7, when Harden played his first game for the team, but several of those wins were uncomfortably close games against Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Utah and Indiana. The Cavaliers have a plus-4.8 net rating over that stretch, while the Pistons are plus-9.0 in the same span.
And one subset of that stretch convinced me of the Pistons’ playoff readiness: Detroit went 9-3 during Cade Cunningham’s absence because of a collapsed lung, with two of the losses coming in overtime. The top-seeded Pistons pull an ostensible upset – at least according to Vegas – and reach the conference finals.
The pick: Pistons in 7
Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)
The Knicks aren’t afraid of the Celtics after winning the season series 3-1 and eliminating them in a second-round upset last spring.
But Boston’s consistency, contrasted with New York’s seasonlong seesawing, makes it a much safer pick. In some respects, the Celtics were very unlucky to lose in the second round last year; they had a much better shot quality throughout the series, per GeniusIQ, and lost Tatum to an Achilles tear midway through. They’ll get their revenge this season, winning the final game at Madison Square Garden, where Tatum suffered his injury a year ago.
The pick: Celtics in 6
East finals
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)
This conference finals matchup would have seemed improbable in the preseason, when the Pistons appeared to be a rising but still nascent contender and the Celtics looked poised for a “gap year” without Tatum.
But now it’s a compelling clash between the NBA’s second-best offense and second-best defense, and the likely top two finishers for the Coach of the Year award.
To determine which team will reach the Finals, the gap between the two teams’ wings could be decisive. Tatum (who didn’t play against Detroit this season), Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are two-way stars, while Ausar Thompson and Duncan Robinson are one-way specialists. Advantage: Boston.
The pick: Celtics in 6
West first round
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8)
The Thunder’s only loss during their 24-1 start was against Portland, but it came on the second night of a road back-to-back set, and Oklahoma City led that game by 22 points before letting up down the stretch. In the other three meetings, Oklahoma City won by eight, 27 and 29 points, even though Deni Avdija played in every game.
In a playoff setting, the Thunder should continue to coast. Both teams have fearsome perimeter defenders, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superior top option to Avdija, and the Thunder have many more secondary playmakers behind their leading scorer.
The pick: Thunder in 4
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Phoenix Suns (7)
On the surface, this seems like it could be a competitive series, as Phoenix beat San Antonio twice in November (though Victor Wembanyama missed one of those contests) and lost by just one point in a meeting last month.
But San Antonio’s recent form suggests the No. 2 seed has ascended to another level, so this series should be over quickly. The Spurs’ only losses since the end of January are to the Nuggets (three times) and Knicks, who both landed No. 3 seeds; they haven’t lost to a non-elite opponent in months.
The pick: Spurs in 4
Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)
Once upon a time, Minnesota had Denver’s number, going 8-3 against the Nuggets between the 2024 postseason and 2024-25 campaign. But the Nuggets handled the Timberwolves better this season, winning three of four meetings, and their only loss came with Aaron Gordon out.
The Nuggets enter the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, while Minnesota stumbled to the finish line. And Denver has the advantage in this series because Gordon is healthy and the Timberwolves’ multi-big defensive strategy against Nikola Jokic has lost its effectiveness. Jokic averaged 36 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and 65% shooting against Minnesota this season.
The pick: Nuggets in 5
Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
Even with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams injured, this series has its share of star power, with one especially compelling storyline: For the first time, after three Finals clashes, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will meet in a non-Finals playoff series. Remarkably, both players are now their teams’ No. 1 options, despite a combined age of 78.
Despite their injuries, the Lakers have a legitimate chance in this series. Lineups with James playing without Doncic and Reaves this season had a plus-9.0 net rating, per databallr, and James in lineups with shooters have been successful across his storied career. But I suspect that after a surprisingly competitive start to the series, Houston will adjust and gain the upper hand; the Rockets’ talent advantage is too great for even James to overcome.
The pick: Rockets in 6
West semifinals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
After the Thunder needed two overtimes to beat the Rockets on opening night, Houston looked like a contender to knock off the reigning champs. But a 20-point beatdown in January tempered that optimism. (Houston’s lone victory against Oklahoma City came with Gilgeous-Alexander out.)
Turnovers will ruin the Rockets’ chances of keeping pace in this series: Oklahoma City ranked first in turnover rate on offense and second on defense, per Cleaning the Glass, while Houston ranked 27th on offense and 21st on defense.
The pick: Thunder in 5
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Denver Nuggets (3)
Expect a lot of points in this series: In the first three games between these teams (many regulars didn’t suit up in the fourth, on the last day of the regular season), the final scores were 139-136, 136-131 and 136-134 (in overtime), with Denver winning two of them.
Notably, Wembanyama appeared in only one of the teams’ meetings this season: the Nuggets’ 136-134 win in early April, arguably the best game of the season. And Jokic has dominated Wembanyama in seven career meetings, going for 37.3 points per game.
But in what promises to be a scintillating back-and-forth series, I give the Spurs the slightest edge for two reasons. The first is home-court advantage, as San Antonio went 32-8 at home this season; only the Thunder (34-7) were better.
The second is that, even acknowledging Jokic’s historical mastery of Wembanyama, with Gordon’s constant injury risk and Peyton Watson’s availability in doubt, I have more faith that San Antonio will figure out ways to keep Denver out of the 130s than vice versa. The Spurs ranked third in defensive rating this season, while the Nuggets ranked 21st.
San Antonio advances in a thriller, while Denver loses in seven games in the conference semifinals for the third straight year.
The pick: Spurs in 7
West finals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
I haven’t been this excited for a potential playoff series this decade. Oklahoma City and San Antonio could spark a decade-long rivalry this spring, after the Spurs beat the reigning champs in four out of five meetings this season.
Oklahoma City has crucial playoff experience and the best clutch scorer in the NBA on its side. But San Antonio presents real matchup problems for the champs because of its athleticism, guard play and game-changing force at center.
For the Thunder, the most frightening feature of their regular-season meetings against the Spurs was Wembanyama’s game-by-game plus-minus rating:
• Plus-21 in 21 minutes
• Plus-13 in 23 minutes
• Plus-13 in 26 minutes
• Minus-14 in 28 minutes
• Plus-17 in 28 minutes
The Spurs were plus-50 in five games with Wembanyama on the court, or plus-10 per game – even though he averaged just 25 minutes per contest.
For comparison, Gilgeous-Alexander played in four games against San Antonio, and the Thunder were minus-1 overall in his 35.5 minutes per game.
It’s possible that Wembanyama can’t handle many more minutes because of his aggressive style of play. He looked noticeably fatigued when he reached 40 minutes in San Antonio’s thrilling overtime loss in Denver this month.
But Wembanyama doesn’t need to play 40 minutes at altitude every game in the playoffs, and he successfully exceeded 35 minutes 10 times this season. In those games, he averaged 30.7 points, 14.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 4.0 blocks while making 44% of his 7.3 3-point attempts and 86% of his 9.6 free throw attempts. That’s not evidence of a consistent problem playing big minutes; if anything, it’s the opposite, and Wembanyama’s stats have been even better when he has increased his workload.
And if the Spurs could batter Oklahoma City with Wembanyama playing 25 minutes, then imagine what they could do when he receives another quarter’s worth of playing time each game.
The pick: Spurs in 6
NBA Finals
Boston Celtics (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
The Celtics and Spurs have never faced off in the Finals, and both franchises have remarkable success in this climactic round: Boston is 18-5 in the Finals, while San Antonio is 5-1. Something has to give in this unexpected showdown.
The Spurs won both meetings this season, including one in which almost every key player on both teams was healthy. (Payton Pritchard was absent for Boston.) San Antonio relied on a massive free throw advantage, which should persist in these Finals, as the Celtics ranked 30th in offensive free throw rate this season, and the Spurs ranked first in defensive free throw rate.
Crucially, the Spurs won both games despite shooting just 33% from distance, which could be a crucial point for this series. The Celtics allowed the highest opponent 3-point attempt rate this season, as Joe Mazzulla packed the paint on defense, and they’d surely attempt that strategy against the Spurs, whose greatest weakness might be their questionable shooters from deep.
But the Spurs’ 3-point shooting has perked up of late. Through Feb. 4, they ranked 19th in 3-point makes (12.9 per game) and 24th in accuracy (34.6%), but since then, they’re eighth in 3-point makes (14.7 per game) and third in accuracy (37.9%). Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are both above 40% in that latter span.
I predict the Spurs will make enough open 3s to exploit Boston’s defensive game plan and complete a storybook journey, from out of the playoffs to raising the trophy in a year. Wembanyama joins fellow Spurs Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard as Finals MVPs in their age-22 seasons. And the NBA’s Wemby Era officially begins.
The pick: Spurs in 6
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN