By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-04-06 13:12:11
如果季后赛今天开打，我们可能会感到困惑，为什么常规赛最后几天和附加赛被取消了。因为按照惯例，季后赛本应在4月18日伴随着我们熟悉的各种盛大仪式和预热拉开帷幕。我们可能还会担心是不是又有一场大流行影响了NBA赛程，而我们显然不希望这种事情发生。
但如果我们观察截至今天（4月6日）的季后赛对阵情况，会发现全联盟都有一些非常有趣的系列赛，我们真的很希望看到它们在正式的季后赛中上演。
随着常规赛最后一周进入尾声，让我们来看看这些潜在的对决：这些球队彼此交手的情况如何，他们如何避开对方的潜在优势并利用其弱点。常规赛的交锋战绩能说明什么吗？你更信任哪支球队能赢得系列赛？
为了确定第七和第八号种子，我们将参考 Basketball-Reference 的季后赛概率预测。或者，根据球队的近期走势，我也可能会临场变阵，让他们通过这个虚构但已被“放弃”的附加赛晋级。
东部联盟
第1名 底特律活塞 vs 第8名 夏洛特黄蜂
为什么黄蜂排在第8？ 在附加赛边缘的几支球队中，他们的表现是最好的。
活塞的隐忧是什么？ 球队缺乏足够的第二进攻点。在凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺塌陷康复缺阵期间，活塞表现尚可。但季后赛是另一个级别的舞台。即使康宁汉姆处于完全健康状态，活塞也缺乏多个进攻创造者。如何跟上夏洛特的外线火力将是一个算术难题。
黄蜂的隐忧是什么？ 缺乏经验以及如何应对活塞的身体对抗。黄蜂阵中并不缺那些不畏惧对抗或大场面的球员。然而，底特律的对抗强度完全处于另一个量级。这可能会让他们有些崩溃，而那时缺乏经验的弊端就会暴露无遗。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 活塞目前以2-0领先，还剩一场比赛。底特律在12月反弹之初曾大胜黄蜂。第二场对决中，他们以6分优势击败夏洛特，康宁汉姆砍下33分，那场比赛因一次清空板凳席的冲突而蒙上阴影。双方最后一次交手定于4月10日。
预测结果？ 活塞6场晋级。在不确定康宁汉姆能否百分之百恢复的情况下，夏洛特能给他们制造一些压力。
第2名 波士顿凯尔特人 vs 第7名 多伦多猛龙
为什么猛龙排在第7？ 他们在周三刚刚跌入附加赛区，但他们的实力理应能杀出重围。
凯尔特人的隐忧是什么？ 篮板问题其实并未真正解决，而且凯尔特人的健康状况也不足以弥补这一缺陷。猛龙并不是一支擅长前场篮板的球队，但他们可能会重点针对波士顿的这一弱点进行打击。进攻回合被延长，加上杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 伤愈归来后可能出现的不稳定性，在面对猛龙出色的防守时可能会非常致命。
猛龙的隐忧是什么？ 这不是一支进攻出色或值得信赖的球队，凯尔特人随时可能通过快节奏进攻将你击溃。如果你不能通过命中三分球来咬住比分，那就很难跟上对手。如果布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 无法摆脱杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 或德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 的防守，猛龙的大部分进攻都会停滞。如果防守端不能制造失误，他们可能无法获得足够的轻松得分机会来打出进攻高潮。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 波士顿以3-0领先，还剩一场比赛。猛龙输掉的其中两场比分很接近，而且双方自1月9日以来就没交过手，所以已经过去很久了。
预测结果？ 凯尔特人横扫。对于猛龙糟糕的进攻来说，这是一个极其不利的对阵。
第3名 纽约尼克斯 vs 第6名 费城76人
尼克斯的隐忧是什么？ 我们还没看到这支球队完全进入状态，而即使是在首轮，他们也需要做到这一点。每个人都认为尼克斯只是在等待季后赛，但在没有夺冠经验的情况下想随时“切换开关”是一项艰巨的任务。尼克斯需要同时限制泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 和乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)，这可能会非常麻烦。
76人的隐忧是什么？ 这支球队从未完全健康，而且总能在关键时刻掉链子。指望恩比德、保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 甚至马克西能够保持完全健康是不理智的。每一场季后赛系列赛，76人的剧本都如出一辙。你开始玩“如果……会怎样”的游戏，结果发现“如果”的情况太多，以至于无法认真对待他们。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 双方战成2-2平，且四场比赛均发生在全明星赛前。
预测结果？ 尼克斯6场晋级。如果卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 能打出一个出色的系列赛，战斗可能会结束得更快。
第4名 克利夫兰骑士 vs 第5名 亚特兰大老鹰
骑士的隐忧是什么？ 这支球队的外线防守会被对手拆解。多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 都是防守平平的球员，对手针对他们制定的逐场战术可能会让场面变得很难看。这给他们在进攻端的投篮和创造力施加了更大的压力。他们在季后赛的稳定性一直不算好。我们也几乎没看到这支球队全员健康过，而且他们在过去三年的季后赛历史上战绩糟糕。埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 或角色球员们准备好站出来了吗？
老鹰的隐忧是什么？ 他们拥有能得分的球员，但缺乏一个真正的关键球核心。杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 有能力打出全能的数据，但面对莫布里的防守将是一次艰难的对决。亚历山大-沃克 (Alexander-Walker) 可能是进步最快的球员。CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 可以提供火力。但在决胜时刻，他们如何抗衡米切尔和哈登的表现？老鹰能处理好莫布里和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 的双塔阵容吗？
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 目前双方战成1-1平，还剩两场比赛。到目前为止的两场比赛都发生在12月之前。
预测结果？ 骑士抢七胜出。亚特兰大需要一个核心人物，但老鹰会让这个系列赛变得非常艰难。
切特·霍姆格伦在波特兰封盖谢登·夏普的投篮。(Soobum Im / Getty Images)
西部联盟
第1名 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 vs 第8名 洛杉矶快船
为什么快船是八号种子？ 他们不应该担心波特兰或金州。在附加赛对决中，我会给菲尼克斯一点微弱的优势。
雷霆的隐忧是什么？ 担心他们因为行程冲突无法参加比赛而弃权？而且这种情况发生了足够多次，导致他们输掉了四场比赛？显然，科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的存在令人畏惧，而且达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 正打出卓越的篮球表现。雷霆只要确保保护好防守篮板，他们就应该没问题。
快船的隐忧是什么？ 雷霆正处于一种“毁灭模式”中。快船擅长制造失误并将其转化为快速得分的机会，而雷霆是全联盟最擅长控制球权的球队之一。快船将被迫在半场阵地进攻中做到完美。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 雷霆对阵快船2-0领先，最后一场比赛将在4月8日进行。之前的两场比赛都发生在圣诞节前。
预测结果？ 雷霆横扫。快船虽然扭转了赛季颓势，但雷霆是另一个级别的对手。
第2名 圣安东尼奥马刺 vs 第7名 菲尼克斯太阳
为什么是太阳？ 太阳在附加赛中拥有主场优势，一支足够健康的球队应该能锁定第七号种子。
马刺的隐忧是什么？ 缺乏经验，而且他们的失误确实不少。马刺也不是一支顶级的三分投射球队。面对一支投射能力极强的太阳队，这些问题可能会集中爆发。而且菲尼克斯擅长制造失误并打出快速反击。如果马刺不知道如何应对那些艰难时刻，那么他们可能会面临威胁。
太阳的隐忧是什么？ 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 拥有吞噬行星的能力，而且他正在学习如何摧毁整个太阳系。没有人能对位文班，那种让狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 去激怒文班的小聪明也不会奏效。在季后赛系列赛中，太阳可能没有足够的运动能力来跟上马刺的节奏。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 双方战成2-2平。太阳赢下了11月的两场比赛，马刺则赢下了全明星赛后的两场。
预测结果？ 马刺5场晋级。菲尼克斯能在主场偷得一场胜利，但现在的马刺太强大了。
第3名 洛杉矶湖人 vs 第6名 明尼苏达森林狼
湖人的隐忧是什么？ 嗯，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 的腿筋伤势，以及奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的腹斜肌伤势。他们至少在常规赛剩余时间里都会缺阵。此外，湖人还没有彻底解决球队防守的隐患。最近防守看起来还不错，但那只是随机的常规赛。如果他们在季后赛中找不到防守默契，我们可能会看到去年首轮对阵明尼苏达时出现过的相同问题。德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 可能并不是解决森林狼统治禁区的稳定答案。而且湖人没有人能防住安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)。
森林狼的隐忧是什么？ 森林狼往往会出现一些愚蠢且低级的失误，这可能会给湖人存疑的防守提供反击动力。你不能给湖人转换进攻得分的机会，让他们抓住机会打出进攻高潮。此外，杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 的膝伤来得真不是时候。爱德华兹最近也缺席了一些比赛。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 湖人以3-0横扫了常规赛系列赛。其中两场发生在赛季第一周，而湖人最近刚让森林狼颜面扫地。
预测结果？ 森林狼抢七胜出，即使东契奇和里夫斯在阵中也是如此。我不相信艾顿能解决去年季后赛系列赛中的那些问题。
第4名 丹佛掘金 vs 第5名 休斯顿火箭
掘金的隐忧是什么？ 他们整个赛季都没有真正健康过，目前仍在与伤病作斗争。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 自赛季中期膝伤归来后，看起来远没有以前那么敏捷或健康。阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 这一年来一直在与腿筋问题作斗争。这支球队在进入季后赛时并没有发挥出最大潜力，这可能会给休斯顿一线生机。
火箭的隐忧是什么？ 这支球队的化学反应一团糟，而且在关键时刻表现糟糕。火箭在胶着的比赛中依然难以得分，面对约基奇和贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 时，这可不是什么好兆头。火箭很可能跟不上对手的节奏，而且他们的关键时刻防守就像酒馆的旋转门一样毫无抵抗力。在没有史蒂芬·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 的情况下，火箭没有足够的体型来对位约基奇。
常规赛交锋战绩如何？ 丹佛本赛季对阵休斯顿为3-1。其中三场比赛发生在圣诞节前。掘金在3月中旬曾大胜火箭。
预测结果？ 掘金5场晋级。我看不到火箭如何能抗衡丹佛在关键时刻的进攻。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：If NBA playoffs started today: Projecting 8 first-round matchups in season's final week
If NBA playoffs started today: Projecting 8 first-round matchups in season’s final week
If the playoffs started today, we’d be confused about why the final days of the season and the Play-In Tournament were scrapped. Because the playoffs are supposed to begin April 18 with all of the pomp and circumstance and lead-up we’ve grown accustomed to. We’d also be worried that another pandemic is affecting the NBA schedule, and we certainly don’t want that to happen.
But if we’re looking at the current playoff matchups as of today (April 6), there are some pretty interesting series across the board that we’d really like to see happen in the regularly scheduled postseason.
As the final week of the regular season winds down, let’s look at each of those potential matchups: how those teams look against each other, how their potential strengths can be avoided and weaknesses can be exploited. Does the season series tell us anything? Which team would you trust to win that series?
For determining the seventh and eighth seeds, we’ll use Basketball-Reference’s playoff odds. Or, depending on how teams are trending, I might call an audible and move them through this imaginary, yet abandoned Play-In.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Charlotte Hornets
Why the Hornets at No. 8? They’re playing the best out of the teams at the bottom of the Play-In.
What’s the concern for the Pistons? There just isn’t much secondary offense. They’ve been surviving just fine without Cade Cunningham as he heals from a collapsed lung. But the playoffs will be on a different level. Even Cunningham at full health means the Pistons don’t have multiple creators. Keeping up with Charlotte’s outside shooting would be a bit of a math problem.
What’s the concern for the Hornets? Lack of experience and dealing with the Pistons’ physicality. The Hornets don’t have guys who shy away from contact or the moment. However, Detroit’s physicality is on an entirely different level. That might break them a little, and that’s where the lack of experience would rear its ugly head.
How did their season series go? The Pistons are up 2-0 with one game left. Detroit blew out the Hornets in December as the turnaround was beginning. They beat Charlotte by six in the second matchup, with Cunningham going for 33 in a game marred by a benches-clearing altercation. They have one last meeting on April 10.
What would be the pick? Pistons in six. Without knowing that Cunningham will be 100 percent, Charlotte can put some pressure on them.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Toronto Raptors
Why the Raptors at No. 7? They just fell into the Play-In Tournament on Wednesday and they should be too good not to make it through.
What’s the concern for the Celtics? The rebounding isn’t actually fixed, and the Celtics aren’t healthy enough to make up for it. The Raptors aren’t a big offensive rebounding team, but they could make it a point of emphasis to find a Boston weakness to exploit. Possessions getting extended and any potential inconsistency from Jayson Tatum as he comes back from the injury could be detrimental against a good Raptors defense.
What’s the concern for the Raptors? This is not a good or trustworthy offense, and the Celtics can run you right off the floor. It’s really tough to keep up if you can’t make 3-pointers to match. If Brandon Ingram can’t free himself from Jaylen Brown or Derrick White, it shuts down a lot of Toronto’s offense. If the defense can’t force turnovers, then they may not get enough easy points to go on extended runs.
How did their season series go? Boston leads 3-0 with a game left. Two of the losses were close for Toronto and they haven’t played since January 9, so it’s been a while.
What would be the pick? Celtics in four. This is a terrible matchup for Toronto’s bad offense.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers
What’s the concern for the Knicks? We still haven’t seen this team fully click, and it’s going to need that, even in the first round. Everybody assumes the Knicks are just waiting for the playoffs, but flipping a switch when you don’t have championship experience is a tall task. The Knicks would need to contain both Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, which could prove troublesome.
What’s the concern for the 76ers? This team is never fully healthy and always finds a way to fall apart in the big moments. Trusting Embiid, Paul George and even Tyrese Maxey to be and remain fully healthy is irrational. It’s the same story with the Sixers going into every single postseason series. You start playing the “what if” game and get too many “what if” scenarios to take this seriously.
How did their season series go? The season series is 2-2, with all four games having happened before the All-Star break.
What would be the pick? Knicks in six. Karl-Anthony Towns having a good series could end it a lot quicker.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
What’s the concern for the Cavs? The perimeter defense of this team is going to get picked apart. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are bad defensive players, and teams planning against them from game-to-game could get ugly. It puts even more pressure on these guys to deliver with shot making and creation on the other end. Their consistency in the postseason hasn’t been great. We also haven’t seen this team healthy much, and they have a bad history in the playoffs over the last three years. Will Evan Mobley or the role players be ready to step up and deliver?
What’s the concern for the Hawks? They have guys who can score, but they don’t have a true go-to scorer. Jalen Johnson is capable of putting up big numbers across the board, but Mobley guarding him will be a difficult matchup. Alexander-Walker might be the most improved player. CJ McCollum can put up shots. But when it’s crunch time, how do they match whatever Mitchell and Harden are doing? Can the Hawks handle the two-big lineup with Mobley and Jarrett Allen?
How did their season series go? The series is currently 1-1, with two games left to play. Both games so far happened before December.
What would be the pick? Cavs in seven. Atlanta needs a go-to guy, but the Hawks would make this difficult.
Chet Holmgren blocks Shaedon Sharpe’s shot in Portland. (Soobum Im / Getty Images)
Western Conference
No. 1 OKC Thunder vs. No. 8 LA Clippers
Why the Clippers as the eighth seed? They shouldn’t have to worry about Portland or Golden State. I’ll give Phoenix the slight edge in a Play-In matchup.
What’s the concern for the Thunder? That they have a conflicting appointment and can’t make the game, thus forfeiting? And this happens enough that they lose four times in the series? Obviously, the presence of Kawhi Leonard is intimidating, and Darius Garland is playing excellent basketball. The Thunder just have to make sure they hit the defensive boards, and they should be fine.
What’s the concern for the Clippers? The Thunder are on a mission of destruction. The Clippers thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those opportunities into quick, easy points. The Thunder are one of the best teams at taking care of the ball. The Clippers would be forced to be perfect in the half court.
How did their season series go? OKC is 2-0 against the Clippers with one game left on April 8. Both of those games happened before Christmas.
What would be the pick? Thunder in four. The Clippers have turned their season around, but this is a different level of opponent.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 7 Phoenix Suns
Why the Suns? The Suns should be at home for the Play-In, and a healthy enough team should secure the seventh seed.
What’s the concern for the Spurs? The lack of experience, and they do turn the ball over quite a bit. The Spurs also aren’t an elite 3-point shooting team. Maybe all of those things manifest themselves against a Suns team that can really shoot. And Phoenix is good at forcing turnovers for quick strikes. If the Spurs don’t know how to manage those tough moments, then maybe there’s a threat.
What’s the concern for the Suns? Victor Wembanyama can eat planets, and he’s figuring out how to destroy entire solar systems. There is no matching up with Wemby, and that cute little idea of putting Dillon Brooks on him to irritate Wemby wouldn’t work either. The Suns may not have the athlete to keep up with the Spurs in a playoff series.
How did their season series go? It’s tied 2-2. The Suns won the two games in November. The Spurs won the two games after the All-Star break.
What would be the pick? Spurs in five. Phoenix can steal a game at home, but the Spurs are too good now.
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s the concern for the Lakers? Well, Luka Dončić’s hamstring injury. and Austin Reaves’ oblique injury. They’ll be out for at least the rest of the regular season. Also, the Lakers haven’t outright resolved any concern with their team defense. It’s looked solid-to-good recently, but those are random regular-season games. If they can’t find that chemistry on defense in the playoffs, we may see the same problems arise as when they played Minnesota in the first round last year. Deandre Ayton probably isn’t the steady answer to how the Wolves dominated the paint. And the Lakers don’t have anyone to guard Anthony Edwards.
What’s the concern for the Wolves? The Wolves tend to make dumb, bad turnovers, and that could fuel a questionable Lakers defense. You can’t give up transition points to the Lakers, and letting them be opportunistic about how and when they run creates those big scoring stretches. Also, Jaden McDaniels’ knee injury couldn’t come at a worse time. Edwards has missed time recently, too.
How did their season series go? The Lakers swept the series 3-0. Two of the games happened in the first week of the season, and the Lakers recently embarrassed the Wolves.
What would be the pick? Wolves in seven, even if Luka and Reaves were in the fold. I’m not convinced Ayton solves the issues from last year’s playoff series.
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets
What’s the concern for the Nuggets? They haven’t really been healthy all season long, and they’re still battling injuries. Nikola Jokić hasn’t looked nearly as spry or healthy since coming back from his knee injury in the middle of the season. Aaron Gordon has been battling a hamstring issue for a year. This team isn’t maximizing its potential going into the playoffs, and that could give Houston some life.
What’s the concern for the Rockets? This team is a mess chemistry-wise, and it’s terrible in the clutch. The Rockets continue to struggle to score in tight games, and that’s not going to bode well going against Jokić and Jamal Murray. The Rockets likely can’t keep up there, and their clutch defense has proven to have the same resistance as a swinging saloon door. Without Steven Adams, the Rockets don’t have the size to handle Jokić.
How did their season series go? Denver is 3-1 against Houston this season. Three of the games happened before Christmas. The Nuggets demolished the Rockets in mid-March.
What would be the pick? Nuggets in five. I don’t see how Houston can match Denver’s clutch offense.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic