By Law Murray | The Athletic, 2026-04-03 09:00:26
NBA常规赛即将收官，我们已经知道有10支球队预定了去往各地的度假行程。另外20支球队仍在为2026年NBA总冠军而战。当然，还会有一场附加赛来淘汰另外四支球队。但今年首轮潜在的对阵形势看起来相当令人愉悦。
我们将在接下来的两周内揭晓真正的四分之一决赛对阵。现在，让我们先来讨论一下本月最值得期待的对决。尽管单场决胜的附加赛对决会很吸引人，但那并不相同。我们在这里关注的是潜在的七场系列赛，在这种赛制下，随着时间的推移和两地奔波，双方会自然而然地产生明显的敌意。
荣誉提名：金州勇士 vs. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
这可能更多是出于情怀，但这足以让这组对决跻身榜单。斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 自1月底以来就没打过球，但他正努力在常规赛结束前重返赛场。勇士队已经锁定了一个附加赛席位，他们可能需要多场胜利才能突围并拿到第八号种子。到那时，我们可能会再次看到“我们相信 (We Believe)”版勇士队！（或者不管他们怎么称呼去年吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 找回快乐时的那支7号种子）。此外，今年春天是史上最精彩的西部决赛之一的10周年纪念，当时雷霆队曾以3-1领先73胜的勇士队，并向他们展示了如何挥霍领先优势，此后不久凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 就从雷霆转投勇士。值得注意的是，雷霆队在本赛季的四次交锋中全部击败了勇士队，包括库里在场的唯一一次交锋。
第10位：夏洛特黄蜂 vs. 底特律活塞
活塞队上一次赢得季后赛系列赛还是在2008年。黄蜂队上一次进入季后赛是在2016年，而上一次系列赛获胜则要追溯到2002年，那是夏洛特暂时失去球队之前。这组对决不仅将结束一段漫长的季后赛成功荒，还将让两支本就互不感冒的球队狭路相逢。可以说，本赛季最臭名昭著的冲突于2月份在光谱中心球馆发生，导致底特律的以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 和杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 以及夏洛特的穆萨·迪亚巴特 (Moussa Diabaté) 和迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges) 被禁赛。还有一个小细节：本赛季东部表现最好的球队将对阵自1月赛季中期以来东部表现最好的球队。这将是一场令人大开眼界的1-8号种子系列赛。
第9位：费城76人 vs. 波士顿凯尔特人
凯尔特人队很可能成为二号种子，而76人队则需要一些帮助才能避开附加赛。但他们在进入春季赛程时表现得很好，阵容基本保持了健康和状态。一支拥有泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 的球队可能比常规的七号种子更强大。波士顿也有理由觉得，随着杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的回归，他们还有上限可以挖掘。这两支球队在2023年贡献了一场令人难忘的七场半决赛系列赛。76人和凯尔特人在常规赛系列赛中也平分秋色。对于一场2-7号种子的对决来说，这将是一个梦幻般的首轮系列赛。
第8位：亚特兰大老鹰 vs. 克利夫兰骑士
2022年，老鹰队从骑士队手中抢走了八号种子，这让骑士队在没有勒布朗·詹姆斯的情况下，本世纪第一个胜率过半的常规赛以令人失望且过早的方式收场。那些老鹰和骑士队的核心成员大多已离队，除了老鹰的大个子奥涅卡·奥孔古 (Onyeka Okongwu) 以及骑士的埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen)。因此，这组对决仅仅关乎两支在赛季中期进行了重大交易，并且完全有理由认为自己能在今年春天超出预期的球队。老鹰和骑士在常规赛结束前还要交手两次。奎因·斯奈德 (Quin Snyder) 的渊源也很耐人寻味，斯奈德和骑士主教练肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 曾在2013-14赛季迈克·布登霍尔泽 (Mike Budenholzer) 执教期间担任老鹰队的助教，之后斯奈德接任了犹他爵士队的主教练，并在那里最终执教了骑士球星多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)。
第7位：菲尼克斯太阳 vs. 圣安东尼奥马刺
马刺队一直表现得极具统治力，尤其是自2月份以来。太阳队深知这一点，因为他们在全明星赛后两次输给马刺。但太阳队是西部少数几支本赛季能与圣安东尼奥在常规赛系列赛中战平的球队之一，且最后一次交锋中马刺仅以1分优势险胜。这也将是太阳和马刺这对21世纪初的宿敌自2010年以来首次同时打进季后赛。
第6位：费城76人 vs. 克利夫兰骑士
这将是詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 系列赛。当76人队在交易截止日送出2024年首轮秀贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 时，76人篮球运营总裁达雷尔·莫雷 (Daryl Morey) 指出他在麦凯恩身上实现了“高位套现”。在同一次新闻发布会上，莫雷认为东部的变动中没有任何“能改变局面的引援”。然而，骑士队在交易截止日做出了东部最大的动作，引进了哈登，这位莫雷曾经在火箭队的当家球星。鉴于哈登离开费城的方式，哈登和莫雷之间早已恩断义绝。这种紧张局势似乎也影响了哈登与恩比德的关系，恩比德在两支球队的最后一次交锋中走向哈登，似乎试图冰释前嫌。不过，哈登和马克西的关系非常好。克利夫兰在常规赛横扫了系列赛，但这对于两支球队来说，仍将是一个星光熠熠且极具戏剧性的季后赛开局。
科怀·莱昂纳德在圣安东尼奥的斯蒂芬·卡斯尔防守下寻求传球。 (Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
第5位：洛杉矶快船 vs. 圣安东尼奥马刺
快船队已经锁定了附加赛，这是他们一度在22场比赛中输掉19场所付出的代价。但如果他们能在进入附加赛时保持第八名，并（极有可能）在菲尼克斯获胜，那么他们就能夺得七号种子和前往阿拉莫之城的门票。没有什么比让马刺上一位总决赛MVP科怀·莱昂纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 以客队身份回归，更能作为马刺重返季后赛的开场白了。莱昂纳德正处于最佳阵容级别的竞技状态，而他的大多数队友都是本赛季或上赛季才来到洛杉矶的。快船队本赛季曾领先马刺25分和14分，但马刺队凭借进攻篮板和防守积极性两次逆转获胜。
第4位：明尼苏达森林狼 vs. 洛杉矶湖人
在今年的首轮比赛中，并没有太多重演2025年季后赛对决的机会。我想可能会有魔术对阵凯尔特人，但在经历了3月底的颓势后，你还相信奥兰多能重整旗鼓吗？那组系列赛没能进入前10，但森林狼对阵湖人的重演绝对可以。当时没多少人看好明尼苏达能赢得那轮系列赛，更少有人预料到那轮系列赛会在五场内分出胜负。像往常一样，森林狼队在常规赛中显得有些漫不经心，但他们会被视为一支连续两年闯入分区决赛的球队。湖人队在休赛期加强了阵容以应对输给森林狼的失利，这在常规赛中确实奏效了，因为森林狼是西部后五名之外唯一一支本赛季未能击败湖人至少一次的球队。
第3位：费城76人 vs. 纽约尼克斯
当这两支球队在2024年季后赛相遇时，尼克斯球迷占领了费城的球馆，那是一轮非常精彩的首轮系列赛。那是76人队上一次参加季后赛，因为他们在2025年经历了一个非自愿的空窗年。这将是两位曾在2019年发生冲突的中锋之间的季后赛对决，而保罗·乔治现在虽然是恩比德的队友，却是卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 在联盟中最好的朋友之一。你会看到泰瑞斯·马克西和杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 这两位全明星控卫的对决。你还能看到“维拉诺瓦元素”，米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 将再次挑战那支本该在2018年选秀中留下他的球队。这些球队在常规赛中也打成了平手。
第2位：休斯顿火箭 vs. 丹佛掘金
如果这两支球队最终在季后赛开始时互相厮杀，西部的其他球队都会感到兴奋。两队在赛季开始时都有理由希望成为竞争者。由于各种原因，两队都没有表现出持续的竞争力，这就是为什么他们正冲向某种版本的4-5号种子对决，这取决于森林狼队的情况。你会看到两位全明星中锋阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 和三届MVP尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 展开对决。显然，丹佛占优。但火箭队会以另一位全明星球员作为回应，因为他们拥有杜兰特，而掘金队拥有贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)。掘金队在赛季中四次交锋三次击败火箭队，但在季后赛背景下，这将是一场有趣的风格碰撞。
第1位：休斯顿火箭 vs. 洛杉矶湖人
如果这组对决足以撑起圣诞大战，那么它也足以位居本榜单之首。这其实只关乎品牌影响力。自杜兰特在对阵詹姆斯的骑士队赢得两次总决赛MVP以来，杜兰特和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 就再未在季后赛系列赛中相遇。詹姆斯在2018年离开克利夫兰，杜兰特在2019年带着伤病离开金州，此后两人从未接近相遇。杜兰特和詹姆斯所在的球队自2023年以来甚至都没有赢得过一轮季后赛系列赛，当时最终夺冠的掘金队先后淘汰了杜兰特的太阳队和詹姆斯的湖人队。火箭队在洛杉矶的圣诞大战中击败了湖人队，但上个月卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 在休斯顿的背靠背比赛中势不可挡。再加上德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 关于克林特·卡佩拉 (Clint Capela) 的言论、伊梅·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka) 过去与詹姆斯的互动，以及阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 这两位最顶尖的非全明星球员，你将在首轮看到一场重磅大戏。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Ranking the 10 best NBA first-round playoff matchups that are still realistically in play
Ranking the 10 best NBA first-round playoff matchups that are still realistically in play
The NBA regular season is coming to an end, and we already know that 10 teams are booked for vacations in various locales. The other 20 teams are still in contention for the 2026 NBA championship. Sure, there will be a Play-In Tournament to eliminate four more teams. But this year’s potential field for the first round is looking quite delightful.
We’ll learn about the actual quarterfinals matchups in the next two weeks. For now, let’s discuss what would be the best matchups to see this month. As much as the single-game Play-In Tournament matchups would be intriguing, those are not the same. We’re focusing on a potential seven-game series here, where clear disdain can be built organically over time and travel.
Honorable mention: Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
This is probably more about nostalgia, but that’s enough to slide this matchup onto the list. Stephen Curry hasn’t played since the end of January, but he’s trying to get back on the floor before the regular season ends. The Warriors are locked into the Play-In, and they’ll likely need multiple wins to survive it and get the eighth seed. At that point, we could see the “We Believe” Warriors once again! (Or whatever they called last year’s No. 7 seed when Jimmy Butler III got his joy back.) Also, this spring marks the 10th anniversary of one of the best Western Conference finals of all time, when the Thunder had a 3-1 lead over the 73-win Warriors and showed them how to blow it, with Kevin Durant transferring from the Thunder to the Warriors not long after. It is worth noting that the Thunder beat the Warriors in all four meetings this season, including the only one in which Curry was on the floor.
No. 10: Charlotte Hornets vs. Detroit Pistons
The last time the Pistons won a playoff series was in 2008. The last time the Hornets were even in the playoffs was 2016, with the last series win coming in 2002, before Charlotte temporarily lost its team. Not only would this matchup end a long postseason success drought, but it would pit two teams that already don’t like each other against each other. Arguably, the most notorious altercation of the season took place at Spectrum Center in February, resulting in the suspensions of Detroit’s Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren and Charlotte’s Moussa Diabaté and Miles Bridges. There’s also this small detail of the Eastern Conference’s best team all season going up against the East’s best team since the season’s midpoint in January. It would be an eye-opening 1-8 series.
No. 9: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are likely going to be the second seed, while the Sixers are going to need help to stay out of the Play-In. But they’ve done well to get their roster mostly healthy and in shape going into the spring. A team with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George is probably better than a conventional seventh seed. Boston has a reason to feel like it has a ceiling to explore as well now that Jayson Tatum is back. And these two teams offered a memorable seven-game semifinal series in 2023. The Sixers and Celtics split the regular-season series as well. It would be a fantastic opening-round series for a 2-7 matchup.
No. 8: Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
In 2022, the Hawks swiped the eighth seed from the Cavaliers, a disappointing and premature end to Cleveland’s first winning regular season of the century without LeBron James. The principals of those Hawks and Cavaliers teams have mostly moved on, save for bigs Onyeka Okongwu of Atlanta and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen of Cleveland. So this matchup is just about two teams that made big in-season trades and have every reason to think they can exceed expectations this spring. The Hawks and Cavaliers also have to play each other twice to end the regular season. The Quin Snyder connections are also intriguing, as Snyder and Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson were Hawks assistants in 2013-14 under Mike Budenholzer before Snyder took the Utah Jazz head coaching job, where Snyder eventually would coach Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell.
No. 7: Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been nothing short of dominant, especially since February. The Suns know this because they lost twice to them after the All-Star break. But the Suns are a rare West team that was able to split the regular-season series against San Antonio this season, and the last meeting saw the Spurs hold on by a single point. This would also be the first time that the Suns and Spurs, blood rivals from the 2000s, would both make the playoffs since 2010.
No. 6: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
This would be the James Harden series. When the Sixers marked their trade deadline by trading 2024 first-round pick Jared McCain, Sixers basketball president Daryl Morey noted that he sold high on McCain. In the same news conference, Morey did not see any “needle movers” in terms of East moves. Well, the Cavaliers made the biggest move in the East at the trade deadline, adding Harden, Morey’s former Rockets star. There’s no love lost between Harden and Morey, given how Harden exited Philadelphia. That tension seemed to affect Harden’s relationship with Embiid as well, who approached Harden in the final meeting between the two teams to seemingly attempt to bury the hatchet. Harden and Maxey, however, have a great relationship. Cleveland swept the regular-season series, but this would still be a star-studded and relatively dramatic way to begin the playoffs for both teams.
Kawhi Leonard looks to keep the ball moving as San Antonio’s Stephon Castle defends. (Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
No. 5: LA Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Clippers are locked into the Play-In, which is the price that comes with losing 19 out of 22 games at one point. But if they can stay in eighth place entering the Play-In and win in (most likely) Phoenix, then they could grab the seventh seed and a ticket to The Alamo. There is no better way to reintroduce the Spurs to the postseason than to have their last NBA Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard, be the visitor. Leonard is playing at an All-NBA level with a group of teammates that, for the most part, just got to LA this season or last season. The Clippers have had leads of 25 and 14 points against the Spurs this season, but the Spurs came back to win both times on the strength of their offensive rebounding and defensive activity.
No. 4: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
There aren’t a lot of opportunities for rematches from the 2025 postseason to happen in this year’s first round. I guess there could be Magic-Celtics, but do you trust Orlando to get itself off the mat after how it ended March? That series doesn’t make the top 10, but a rematch of Timberwolves-Lakers absolutely does. There weren’t many who picked Minnesota to win that series, and even fewer who expected that series to be decided in five games. As usual, the Timberwolves are sleepwalking through a regular season, but they will be treated like a team that has been to back-to-back conference finals. The Lakers spent their offseason bolstering the roster to react to the Timberwolves loss, and that certainly worked for the regular season, as the Timberwolves were the only team outside of the West’s bottom five that failed to beat the Lakers at least once this season.
No. 3: Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Knicks fans took over the Philadelphia arena when these two teams met in the 2024 postseason, which was a very entertaining first-round series. That’s the last time the Sixers were in the playoffs, as they took an unintentional gap year in 2025. This would be a playoff series between two centers who fought each other in 2019, with Paul George serving now as Embiid’s teammate but one of Karl-Anthony Towns’ best friends in the league. You’d get two All-Star point guards in Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson. And you’d have the Villanova quotient met, with Mikal Bridges getting another crack at the team that probably should have kept him in the 2018 draft. These teams split the regular season series as well.
No. 2: Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets
The rest of the West would be thrilled if these two teams wound up beating up on each other to begin the playoffs. Both entered this season with reasonable hopes to be contenders. Neither consistently performed like contenders for a variety of reasons, which is why they are hurdling toward some version of a 4-5 matchup, depending on what happens with the Timberwolves. You’d get two All-Star centers going up against each other in Alperen Şengün and three-time MVP Nikola Jokić. Advantage Denver, obviously. But the Rockets would counter with the other All-Star counterpart, as they have Kevin Durant, while the Nuggets have Jamal Murray. The Nuggets were able to beat the Rockets three out of four times during the season, but this would be an interesting clash of styles in a playoff setting.
No. 1: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
If this matchup was good enough for Christmas, then it will be good enough for the top spot on this list. It really just comes down to the brand. Durant and LeBron James haven’t met in a playoff series since Durant won two NBA Finals MVPs against James’ Cavaliers. James left Cleveland in 2018, Durant left Golden State injured in 2019, and the two haven’t come close to meeting since. Both Durant and James have been on teams that haven’t even won a playoff series since 2023, when the eventual champion Nuggets dismissed both Durant’s Suns and James’ Lakers. The Rockets handled the Lakers on Christmas in Los Angeles, but then Luka Dončić was unstoppable in Houston in back-to-back games last month. Mix in Deandre Ayton’s Clint Capela comments, Ime Udoka’s past interactions with James and two of the best non-All-Stars in Amen Thompson and Austin Reaves, and you have a blockbuster in the first round.
By Law Murray, via The Athletic