By David Purdum | ESPN, 2026-02-26 02:56:24
随着NBA常规赛MVP竞争在近几周趋于白热化，赔率最被看好的两位热门人选——俄克拉荷马城的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和丹佛的尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) ——正面临因NBA新规而失去获奖资格的风险。
截至周三，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在DraftKings体育博彩公司依然是公认的最热门人选，赔率为-125，而约基奇的赔率为+310。然而，这两位昔日的MVP得主本赛季都面临评选资格危机，因为根据NBA规定，球员若缺席超过17场比赛，将无法入选赛季末的各项大奖。
由于腹部拉伤自2月3日起一直缺阵，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大已被确认缺席周三对阵底特律活塞队的比赛。这是他本赛季缺席的第11场比赛，在剩余的22场常规赛中，他至少需要出战16场，才有资格竞争连续第二座MVP奖杯。
本赛季已经缺席16场比赛的约基奇，如果再休战两场，将失去评选资格。
吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和约基奇评选前景的不确定性，激发了博彩市场对底特律活塞队后卫凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 的投注兴趣。过去一周，坎宁安在DraftKings吸引的MVP注单比其他所有球员的总和还要多。在此期间，他的赔率已从14比1跃升至9比2，成为赔率榜第三的选择。
整个赛季以来，在BetMGM体育博彩公司，投在坎宁安身上的MVP注单数量超过了任何其他球员。BetMGM的NBA操盘手克里斯蒂安·霍克森 (Christian Hockerson) 表示，博彩公司在吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和约基奇的盘口上处于有利位置，但对坎宁安以及波士顿凯尔特人队的杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)（其赔率在过去一周从10比1变动至40比1）的关注已经产生了一定的赔付压力。
圣安东尼奥马刺队中锋维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的赔率为20比1，但他本赛季已缺席13场比赛，也处于NBA出场场次门槛的边缘。在本赛季DraftKings的MVP赔率榜中，文班亚马吸引的注单量超过了其他任何球员。
NBA MVP赔率
数据截至周三赛前。缺席超过17场比赛的球员将失去MVP评选资格。
| 球员 | MVP赔率 | 缺阵场数 | 剩余场次 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大* | -125 | 10 | 23 |
| 尼古拉·约基奇 | +310 | 16 | 24 |
| 凯德·坎宁安 | +450 | 6 | 26 |
| 维克托·文班亚马 | 20-1 | 13 | 25 |
| 杰伦·布朗 | 30-1 | 6 | 25 |
| 卢卡·东契奇 | 50-1 | 12 | 25 |
| — | — | — | — |
| *周三缺阵 | |||
| 注：文班亚马已缺席13场（实际为14场，但由于NBA杯决赛计入场次，获得1场冲抵）。 |
霍克森表示，BetMGM近期还观察到对克利夫兰骑士队后卫多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)（100比1）和明尼苏达森林狼队后卫安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)（250比1）的投注兴趣。
ESPN上周对100名媒体成员进行的MVP模拟投票显示，只要吉尔杰斯-亚历山大具备评选资格，他就是该奖项最明确的首选。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic nearing MVP ineligibility
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic nearing MVP ineligibility
The odds to win the NBA’s regular-season MVP have tightened in recent weeks, with the top two betting favorites – Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver’s Nikola Jokic – at risk of not qualifying for the award because of a new NBA rule.
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on consensus favorite, listed at -125 on Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Jokic at +310. Both past MVP winners, however, are in danger of being ineligible this season because of an NBA rule that prohibits players who miss more than 17 games from qualifying for postseason awards.
Gilgeous-Alexander was ruled out for Wednesday’s game against the Detroit Pistons as he works his way back from an abdominal strain that has sidelined him since Feb. 3. It was his 11th missed game this season, and he’ll need to play in at least 16 of the remaining 22 regular-season games to be eligible for a second consecutive MVP award.
Jokic, who has already missed 16 games this season, will be ineligible if he sits out two more.
The uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic has fueled betting interest in Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham. Over the past week, Cunningham has attracted more MVP bets at DraftKings Sportsbook than all other players combined. He has moved from 14-1 to the third choice at 9-2 during that stretch.
Throughout the season, more MVP bets have been placed on Cunningham than on any other player at BetMGM sportsbooks. Christian Hockerson, an NBA trader with BetMGM, said the sportsbook is in a good position on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, but interest in Cunningham and the Boston Celtics’ Jaylen Brown – whose odds have moved from 10-1 to 40-1 over the past week – has created some liability.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is 20-1, but he’s also on the cusp of not meeting the NBA’s threshold for games played, having missed 13 games this season. Wembanyama has attracted more bets on DraftKings’ MVP odds than any other player this season.
NBA MVP odds
Entering Wednesday’s games. Players who miss more than 17 games do not qualify for MVP.
| Player | MVP odds | Games missed | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander* | -125 | 10 | 23 |
| Nikola Jokic | +310 | 16 | 24 |
| Cade Cunningham | +450 | 6 | 26 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 20-1 | 13 | 25 |
| Jaylen Brown | 30-1 | 6 | 25 |
| Luka Doncic | 50-1 | 12 | 25 |
| — | — | — | — |
| *Out Wednesday | |||
| Note: Wembanyama has missed 13 games (actually 14 but gets credit for NBA Cup title game). |
Hockerson said BetMGM also saw recent interest in Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (100-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (250-1).
An MVP straw poll of 100 media members conducted last week by ESPN indicated Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear top choice, if he qualifies.
By David Purdum | ESPN, via ESPN