By Dan Santaromita | The Athletic, 2026-03-03 10:00:25
NBA MVP奖项历来充满了争议，获奖者也常引发广泛讨论。请记住，迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 仅获得过5次常规赛MVP，而勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 仅获得过4次。今年，由于一个特定的数字，联盟中几位顶级球员甚至可能失去评选资格。
这个数字就是：出场场数。
NBA有一项规则，要求球员必须至少出战65场比赛才有资格参与奖项评选。这一规则可能会左右2025-26赛季MVP的归属。
去年的得主谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 在2月因腹部拉伤缺席了大部分比赛。他已于周五回归赛场，目前在俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的62场比赛中出战了51场。这意味着亚历山大必须在雷霆队最后的20场比赛中出战14场，才能保住MVP评选资格。这个频率并不算太离谱，依然留有一定的轮休空间，但对于亚历山大而言，一次肌肉拉伤或脚踝扭伤就可能让他处于资格线的边缘。
这种喘息的空间对尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 来说并不存在。这位丹佛掘金球星在过去五年中赢得了三次MVP，且上赛季与亚历山大的竞争非常激烈，但本赛季他已经缺席了16场比赛。若想进入MVP考虑范围，他最多只能再缺席一场。
传统观点认为，亚历山大和约基奇依然比联盟其他球员高出一个档次，MVP将由他们其中之一获得——除非两人都不符合资格。即便是维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，如果极端情况发生他本有机会顺位递补，但也已经缺席了14场比赛。在圣安东尼奥马刺队剩下的22场比赛中，文班亚马最多只能再缺席3场，才能获得MVP评选资格。
那么，这一切意味着什么呢？目前，亚历山大仍然是MVP的头号热门。在出场场数方面，他拥有些许容错空间，而另外两人则没有。
在DraftKings上，亚历山大夺奖的赔率为-275，FanDuel为-260，BetMGM为-250。这些赔率意味着亚历山大的获胜概率在70%到75%之间。约基奇的赔率相对较高（MGM和FanDuel为+450，DK为+475），这主要是因为他是否具备评选资格存在变数。
凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 带领底特律活塞队取得了东部最佳战绩，他在MVP赔率榜上实际上已经超过文班位列第三，这同样主要是由于人们怀疑文班是否能达标。坎宁安在BetMGM的赔率为+800，DraftKings为+850，FanDuel为+1000。相比之下，文班的赔率在+2200到+2500之间。坎宁安在活塞队的59场比赛中出战了53场，因此在评选资格方面基本无忧。
坎宁安的MVP赔率一直在变动（一周前为+1400），因为他最终可能会“默认”获奖。对于一名在大概率成为东部头号种子的球队中场均贡献25.5分和9.8次助攻的球员来说，用这种方式来形容他或许有些刻薄。
令人遗憾的是，关于评选资格的讨论占据了MVP话题的主流，掩盖了这些球星本身的价值和赛场表现。亚历山大和约基奇是已经证明过自己的冠军级领袖，确立了联盟顶级球员的地位。文班和坎宁安则执掌着异军突起的球队，使之成为了新的争冠热门。
然而，如果你试图预测谁会获胜，资格问题确实是最关键的，特别是在博彩层面。押注约基奇或亚历山大获胜，本质上是在押注他们赛季剩余时间的健康状况，几乎与他们赛季末的表现无关。一旦到了赛季末，当我们确定他们是否达到了基准场次，争论的焦点才会重新回到谁才是真正实至名归的获奖者。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA MVP odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads, but Cade Cunningham rises thanks to 65-game rule
NBA MVP odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads, but Cade Cunningham rises thanks to 65-game rule
The NBA MVP award has had its fair share of debate and controversial winners. Keep in mind, Michael Jordan only won regular-season MVP five times, and LeBron James only won it four times. This year, a few of the league’s top players might not even be eligible because of one specific number.
That number: games played.
The NBA has a rule that requires players to play in at least 65 games to be considered for awards. That rule could dictate the 2025-26 MVP winner.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last year’s winner, missed most of February due to an abdominal strain. He returned to action on Friday and has played 51 of Oklahoma City’s 62 games. That means Gilgeous-Alexander has to play 14 of the Thunder’s last 20 games to be eligible for MVP. That’s not a crazy rate, and there is still some room for the occasional rest day, but SGA is one muscle tweak or turned ankle away from being right on the bubble.
That breathing room does not exist for Nikola Jokić. The Denver star, who has won three of the last five MVPs and was in a close race with SGA last season, has already missed 16 games. He can only miss one more to make the cut for MVP consideration.
The conventional wisdom is that SGA and Jokić are once again a tier above the rest of the league, and one of them will win MVP, unless neither is eligible. Even Victor Wembanyama, who could be in line for MVP if the disaster scenario kicks in, has missed 14 games already. Wembanyama can only miss three of the last 22 Spurs games in order to be considered for MVP.
So what does this all mean? For now, SGA is still a strong favorite for MVP. He has a somewhat healthy margin in terms of games played, while the other two do not.
SGA is -275 to win the award on DraftKings, -260 on FanDuel and -250 on BetMGM. Those odds put SGA’s chances of winning between 70 and 75 percent. Jokić has somewhat long odds (+450 on MGM and FD and +475 on DK), mostly due to the question of whether or not he would be eligible.
Cade Cunningham, who has led the Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of Wemby for third in the odds to win MVP, again mostly because of doubts about whether Wemby will be eligible. Cunningham is +800 on BetMGM, +850 on DraftKings and +1000 on FanDuel. By comparison, Wemby’s odds range from +2200 to +2500. Cunningham has played 53 of Detroit’s 59 games, so he is mostly in the clear as far as eligibility.
Cunningham’s MVP odds have been on the move (+1400 a week ago), as he could end up winning “by default,” which is the harshest way to describe a player who is averaging 25.5 points and 9.8 assists on the likely top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The sad part is that the eligibility discussion has dictated much of the conversation around MVP instead of the value and play of the star players. SGA and Jokić are championship-winning alphas who have established themselves as the best players in the league. Wemby and Cunningham are helming breakthrough teams that have emerged as new title contenders.
However, the eligibility question is the most important one, especially on the betting front, if you’re trying to predict a winner. A bet on Jokić or SGA to win is a bet on their health the rest of the season, almost regardless of their play to close the year. Toward the end of the season, once we know whether they will hit that benchmark number of games, the debate can shift to which player is actually most deserving.
By Dan Santaromita, via The Athletic