By Eric Koreen | The Athletic, 2026-02-25 10:00:20
多伦多——很抱歉我得这么做，但我们要从数学和统计数据开始聊起。
本赛季，俄克拉荷马城的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和丹佛的尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 在胜利贡献值（Win Shares，一个反映球员产出的不完美指标）上遥遥领先。在周二的比赛之前，已经缺席了本赛季第10场比赛的亚历山大积累了11.4的胜利贡献值，即每48分钟0.336。缺席了16场比赛的约基奇拥有10.5的胜利贡献值，即每48分钟0.349。
目前，他们有资格参与MVP和最佳阵容 (All-NBA) 的讨论。如果亚历山大再缺席8场，约基奇再缺席2场，他们本赛季的出战次数将低于联盟规定的65场门槛，从而失去评奖资格。在我的同事蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps) 最近在ESPN发起的MVP“模拟投票”中，凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)（6.7胜利贡献值，每48分钟0.183）、维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)（6.1，0.234）——他在保持评奖资格的前提下只能再缺席4场——以及卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)（6.2，0.189）在竞选中分别排在第三、第四和第五位。
假设文班亚马最终获胜，是因为雷霆和掘金的核心球员没能达标：到目前为止，他本赛季需要打三场比赛才能产出雷霆和掘金球星两场比赛就能提供的胜利贡献值。胜利贡献值虽有缺陷，但大多数综合影响力指标都表明，亚历山大和约基奇是本赛季对胜利贡献最大的两名球员。
那么，我们对65场规则到底在做什么？联盟在2023-24赛季前设立了这一规定，目的是激励球员尽量多上场，打击外界认为联盟球星在轮休的负面印象。然而，像亚历山大、约基奇、文班亚马、东契奇（缺席12场）、科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)（13场）和德文·布克 (Devin Booker)（14场）都在出战门槛边缘徘徊。斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)（缺席18场）和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)（25场）已经提前取消了资格。
如果这项规则确实鼓励了球员上场，那么它带来的改变并不深刻。而现在，人们感觉到它的真实影响反而是确保了错误的人拿到奖项。
是时候废除这项规则了。
主要原因之一：这是一项把上场的压力全部甩给球员的规则。通常情况下，球员是想打球的。
“他不想缺席比赛，”雷霆主帅马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 周二晚上谈到亚历山大时说道。亚历山大本场唯一的出场是在多伦多，距离他的家乡安大略省汉密尔顿约45分钟路程。“我可以告诉你，他不想错过这场比赛。”
2月20日，受伤的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在场边观看俄克拉荷马城雷霆队对阵布鲁克林篮网队的比赛。 (Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)
他目前因腹部拉伤缺阵。如果不是因为伤病恰好跨越了全明星周末，他会错过更多比赛。目前雷霆队表示将在本周末对他进行伤情重新评估，这可能导致他至少再缺席一场比赛。
约基奇因为膝伤缺席了16场。仅仅一次真实的伤病，两名效力于争冠球队、联盟最顶尖的球员就处于失去评奖资格的边缘。也许NBA没有预料到会有两名球员的价值如此远超联盟其他球员，但NBA长期以来正是由明星球员巨大的影响力所定义的。如果因为伤病时机不对就让评奖沦为笑话，那就是对整个赛季表现的严重扭曲。
让我们把目光投向年度最佳防守球员。文班亚马显然是联盟中最具影响力的防守球员。看看他在周一马刺战胜底特律活塞队的比赛中是如何产生影响的，或者看看数据：马刺在文班亚马在场时的防守要好得多，每100回合失分比雷霆队（联盟第一防守）还要少1.7分。所有数据都指向同一个结论。
此外，文班亚马身高7英尺4英寸，且有伤病史。马刺和雷霆目前在西部遥遥领先。马刺本该可以适度安排他轮休，保护其健康，并最大化他们在季后赛（联盟机制中认为赛季最重要的时间点）的机会，但现在马刺不得不考虑如何让文班亚马打满65场。当然，从联盟的角度来看这就是目的，但它忽视了联盟在其中的责任。
最简单的建议是削减常规赛场次，从而给球员更多的场间休息时间，同时也让每场比赛变得更重要。但没有迹象表明联盟的利益相关者——老板、球员、转播合作伙伴等——有这种决心。既然球队在对待球星时非常谨慎，让他们多休一两场，那么答案不应该是通过不打球就取消资格来威胁运动员，而是通过让最佳球员上场来奖励球队。这意味着要提高常规赛的重要性。
在排名靠前的球队方面，联盟可以增加对顶尖球队的奖励，给他们更多的主场优势，或者在季后赛中选择对手的能力。引入轮空制。无论怎么做，都要让这些比赛对球队产生实质意义。
在排名另一端的球队中，联盟需要寻找方法通过提高乐透签概率，来奖励那些赢得35场而非18场比赛的球队。再次入选最佳阵容对帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 来说可能重要，也可能不重要；但拥有更好的乐透签概率对印第安纳步行者来说肯定重要，这能让他们有动力在收官阶段派他上场。就像关于“摆烂”的讨论一样，如果你激励球队去争取胜利，他们就会这样做，这意味着在他们的球星健康状况允许时，会让他们留在场上。
目前看来，NBA正在玩火。想象一下，一位MVP候选人已经缺席了17场比赛，正带着轻伤作战，但为了评奖资格不得不尝试在一场本无足轻重的比赛中硬撑。现在，想象一下那名球员在其中一场比赛中受了重伤。
随着高阶数据比以往任何时候都更加普及，以及可以观看几乎任何比赛的能力，这些奖项的媒体投票者在评估球员价值和产出方面拥有比以往更多的资源。我们可以争论65场、60场还是55场更有道理，或者提出最低分钟数门槛而非最低场次数门槛。但无论如何，我们都会遇到同样的问题。
为了辩论起见，让我们假定亚历山大、约基奇和文班亚马今年都没能打够65场。我们最终可能会得到如下的奖项结果：
- MVP：凯德·坎宁安
- 年度最佳防守球员：鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)
- 年度最佳阵容第一阵：坎宁安、东契奇、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)、安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)
这能代表我们所看到的这个赛季吗？
奖项这东西本身就有点荒谬。但既然我们要评奖，它们最好还是能反映出赛季中真实发生的一切。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The NBA’s 65-game rule is backfiring — and it could hand MVP to the wrong player
The NBA’s 65-game rule is backfiring — and it could hand MVP to the wrong player
TORONTO — I’m sorry to do this, but we’re starting with math, and we’re starting with statistics.
This season, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver’s Nikola Jokić are the runaway leaders in win shares, an imperfect stat that gets at the production a player provides. Heading into Tuesday’s games, Gilgeous-Alexander, who missed his 10th game of the year, had amassed 11.4 win shares, or 0.336 win shares per 48 minutes. Jokić, who has missed 16 games, has 10.5 win shares, or 0.349 per 48 minutes.
Right now, they qualify for MVP and All-NBA conversation. If they miss eight and two more games, respectively, this year and fall below the league’s 65-game threshold, they would no longer be eligible for consideration. In my colleague Tim Bontemps’ most recent MVP “straw poll” at ESPN, Cade Cunningham (6.7 win shares, 0.183 per 48), Victor Wembanyama (6.1, 0.234) — who can only miss four more games while still qualifying — and Luka Dončić (6.2, 0.189) are third, fourth and fifth, respectively, in the race.
Let’s assume Wembanyama ended up winning because the Thunder and Nuggets stars didn’t qualify: So far this season, he has needed three games to produce as many win shares as the Thunder and Nuggets stars produce in two games. Win shares has its flaws, but most overall-impact awards suggest that Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić have been the two players who have contributed most to winning this season.
So, what are we doing with the 65-game rule? The league instituted it before the 2023-24 season to give players an incentive to play more often than not, fighting against the perception that the league’s stars weren’t playing as much as they could. And yet, the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić, Wembanyama, Dončić (12 missed games), Kawhi Leonard (13) and Devin Booker (14) are flirting with missing the cutoff. Steph Curry (18 missed games) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (25) are already disqualified.
If the rule has encouraged players to get on the floor more, it hasn’t made a profound difference. And now, it feels as if the real impact might be to make sure the wrong people get some awards.
It is time to scrap the rule.
One of the main reasons: This is a rule that puts the onus on players to push to play. Players, generally, want to play.
“He doesn’t want to miss games,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Tuesday night about Gilgeous-Alexander, making his only appearance in Toronto, about 45 minutes from his hometown of Hamilton, Ontario. “He doesn’t want to miss this game, I’ll tell you that.”
An injured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander watches his Oklahoma City Thunder team play against the Brooklyn Nets on Feb. 20. (Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)
He is out with an abdominal strain. He would have missed more games if the injury had not bridged the All-Star break. As it is, the Thunder said he will be re-evaluated at the end of the week, likely causing him to miss at least one more game.
Jokić missed his 16 games because of a knee injury. One legitimate injury, and the two best players in the league, who play for genuine championship contenders, are on the precipice of not being eligible for awards. Maybe the NBA didn’t prepare for two players to be so much more valuable than the rest of the league, except that the NBA has long been defined by the outsized impact of star players. Get the wrong injuries, and the awards become a joke, a wild misrepresentation of the season that happened.
Let’s zoom in on Defensive Player of the Year. Wembanyama is clearly the most impactful defensive player in the league. Watch how he impacted the Spurs’ win over the Detroit Pistons on Monday, or take a look at the stats: San Antonio’s defense is much better with Wembanyama on the floor instead of him off it, 1.7 points per 100 possessions stingier than the Thunder’s league-best defense. They all say the same thing.
Also, Wembanyama is 7-foot-4 and has a history of injuries. The Spurs and Thunder are well clear of the rest of the Western Conference. Instead of being able to rest him liberally, protect his health and maximize their chances in the playoffs, which the league’s incentive structure says is the most important time of the season, the Spurs have to consider getting Wembanyama to 65 games. That, of course, is the point from the league’s perspective, but it ignores the league’s culpability in all of it.
The easiest suggestion here is to cut down on the number of games in the regular season, therefore giving players more time to rest in between games while also making each game more important. But there is no indication the league’s stakeholders — owners, players, television partners and so forth — have the stomach for that. To the degree that teams are being extra cautious with their stars, holding them out for an additional game or two, the answer isn’t to threaten the athletes for not playing, but to reward the teams for getting their best players on the court. That means making the regular season more important.
At the top of the standings, the league could increase the rewards for the best teams, giving them more of a home-court advantage or the ability to choose their opponents in the playoffs. Introduce a bye system. Whatever you do, make the games count for the teams.
At the other end of the standings, the league needs to find ways to reward teams for winning 35 games as opposed to 18 through improved lottery odds. Making another All-NBA team might or might not matter to Pascal Siakam; having better lottery odds definitely matters to the Indiana Pacers, giving them reason to play him down the stretch. Just as in the tanking conversation, if you incentivize teams to try to win, they will try to do so, which will mean getting their stars on the floor when they’re healthy enough.
As it is, the NBA is playing with fire. Imagine a scenario in which an MVP candidate has missed 17 games and is battling a minor injury, but tries to play through it in an otherwise-meaningless game. Now, imagine that player gets seriously hurt in one of those games.
With advanced stats more prevalent than ever and the ability to watch almost any game, media voters for these awards have more resources than ever to assess player value and production. We can quibble with the merit of 65 games versus 60 or 55, or coming up with a minimum-minutes threshold instead of a minimum-games threshold. We will bump up against the same issues regardless.
For the sake of debate, let’s pretend Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić and Wembanyama don’t get to 65 games this year. We could end up with award results like the following.
- MVP: Cade Cunningham
- Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert
- First Team All-NBA: Cunningham, Dončić, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards
Would that be representative of the season we’re seeing?
Awards are kind of silly. So long as we have them, though, they might as well reflect what happens in a season.
By Eric Koreen, via The Athletic