By Dan Santaromita | The Athletic, 2026-04-13 19:39:01
NBA历史上是否曾出现过如此扑朔迷离的MVP之争？在伤病和“65场规则”的双重影响下，这成了多年来最离奇的MVP竞选之一。
随着常规赛于周日结束，大多数博彩公司已经撤下了NBA MVP获奖者的赔率，但收盘赔率勾勒出了一个清晰的画面：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 有望连续第二年斩获MVP。他在BetMGM的收盘赔率为-10000（1赔100，即隐含胜率高达99%），在FanDuel为-7000，在DraftKings为-5000。
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在DraftKings的赔率为20赔1，BetMGM为25赔1，FanDuel为50赔1。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 在这三家平台的收盘赔率均约为50赔1。这意味着如果吉尔杰斯-亚历山大最终没有获奖将令人震惊，但这绝非一场一帆风顺的竞争。
赛季初，MVP之争被设定为吉尔杰斯-亚历山大与约基奇的对决。约基奇曾三次夺魁，而吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在去年的MVP评选中力压他夺魁。约基奇在休赛期的大部分时间里都是博彩热门，但到赛季揭幕时，两人的赔率均为+275。
文班在对阵达拉斯的揭幕战中砍下40分15个篮板，迅速加入了这场混战。那场比赛后，文班在MVP赔率榜上挤到了吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和约基奇之间。
随后，伤病潮开始袭来。
首先是文班，他在11月14日受伤并缺席了一个月的比赛。接着是约基奇，他几乎缺席了整个一月。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大则几乎缺席了整个二月。
鉴于NBA规定球员必须至少出战65场比赛才有资格评奖，MVP之争突然变得一团糟。如果前三名竞争者都达不到这个数字，谁会赢？凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 曾有望成为那个所谓的“默认赢家”，这让65场规则受到了严厉审视。
2月下旬，随着活塞队领跑东部，坎宁安夺得MVP的赔率为+550，当时仅次于吉尔杰斯-亚历山大（-150）和约基奇（+275）。随后，坎宁安也未能幸免，在3月17日受伤。他本赛季出战64场，离65场仅一步之遥。
3月，一位新的挑战者出现了：卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)。这位NBA月最佳球员场均轰下37.5分，并带领湖人队打出了14胜2负的战绩。他以场均33.5分夺得NBA得分王，夺魁赔率一度升至15赔1。随着更多人注意到他以及湖人队的火热状态，他的势头不断壮大。如果东契奇保持健康并在4月强势收官，竞争格局或许会有所不同。然而，他也遭遇了伤病，未能达到65场（最终停留在64场，和坎宁安一样）。
伤病悬念一直持续到最后时刻，文班在常规赛最后一周遭遇肋骨伤势。他在周五仅出场26分钟就交出了令人咋舌的40分13个篮板，再次打爆了独行侠。文班仅打了64场常规赛，但马刺队打进了NBA杯决赛，这场比赛计入65场之列。
尽管人们对精英球员因资格问题无缘应得奖项和最佳阵容评选感到焦虑，但球员在冲刺阶段需要保持健康的这种戏剧性也值得玩味。
吉尔杰斯-亚历山大最终出战68场。约基奇在常规赛最后一天达到了65场。文班带轻伤出战以获得评奖资格。东契奇和坎宁安则以一场之差遗憾出局。
随着65场风波尘埃落定（好吧，基本尘埃落定，尚待卢卡的例外申请结果，因为他在12月因前往斯洛文尼亚见证女儿出生缺席了两场比赛），球员们的论据已经摆在面前。
吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是MVP的头号热门，也是 The Athletic 最新NBA球员投票中的首选。他是联盟战绩第一球队中的最佳球员。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大场均贡献31.1分，投篮命中率达55.3%，并送出6.6次助攻。
约基奇场均贡献三双（27.7分、12.9个篮板、10.7次助攻），这在现在看来甚至有些平淡无奇，因为他去年也做到了。没有球员在进攻端比约基奇拥有更大的牵制力。约基奇数据中最令人惊叹的部分是他成功领跑了联盟篮板榜和助攻榜。
如果说约基奇在进攻端牵制力最强，那么文班在防守端则有着相反的效果。对手的进攻都会避开这位身高7英尺4英寸的法国人。他以场均3.1次盖帽领跑联盟，其他球员甚至没人能达到场均2次。他将毫无悬念地获得年度最佳防守球员，并带领马刺队取得62胜，其中包括常规赛收官阶段的一波30胜3负（在常规赛收官战负于掘金之前，当时文班和其他主力轮休）。
拥有如此多实力强劲的候选人，加之贯穿始终的伤病和65场规则风波，这次MVP之争可谓波澜壮阔，即便吉尔杰斯-亚历山大最终将作为蝉联者载入史册。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA MVP odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is runaway favorite after Nikola Jokić makes 65-game minimum
NBA MVP odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is runaway favorite after Nikola Jokić makes 65-game minimum
Has there ever been an NBA MVP race quite like this? Between injuries and the 65-game rule, it’s been one of the weirdest MVP races in years.
With the regular season ending Sunday, most sportsbooks have pulled odds for NBA MVP winner, but the closing odds paint a clear picture: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to win MVP for the second year in a row. He closed at -10000 odds on BetMGM (1-to-100 or an implied 99 percent chance of winning), -7000 on FanDuel and -5000 on DraftKings.
Victor Wembanyama was 20-to-1 on DraftKings, 25-to-1 on BetMGM, 50-to-1 on FanDuel. Nikola Jokić closed at roughly 50-to-1 on all three. That means it would be a shock if SGA didn’t win the award, but it was far from a straightforward race.
At the start of the season, the MVP race was framed as Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jokić. Jokić is a three-time winner, and SGA topped him for last year’s MVP. Jokić was the betting favorite for some of the offseason, but by the time the season tipped off, both shared +275 odds.
Wembanyama joined the party quickly with a 40-point, 15-rebound night in the season opener against Dallas. After that game, Wembanyama wedged himself between SGA and Jokic in MVP odds.
Then, the injuries started.
First, it was Wemby, who got hurt on Nov. 14 and missed a month of action. Then it was Jokić, who missed almost all of January. SGA missed almost all of February.
With the NBA’s rule that players must play in at least 65 games to be eligible for awards, suddenly the MVP race was becoming a mess. If the top three contenders didn’t reach that number, who would win? Cade Cunningham was on track to be that potential so-called default winner, which put the 65-game rule under scrutiny.
Cunningham was a +550 shot to win MVP in late February with the Pistons leading the Eastern Conference, only trailing SGA (-150) and Jokić (+275) at that time. Then Cade fit in with the theme and got hurt on March 17. He fell just short of 65 games with 64 played this season.
In March, a new challenger emerged: Luka Dončić. The NBA player of the month went off for 37.5 points per game and led the Lakers to a 14-2 record. He won the NBA scoring title at 33.5 points per game and got to 15-to-1 to win MVP. He had some growing momentum as more people started to take note of his, and the Lakers’, heater. If Dončić stayed healthy and finished April strong, perhaps the race could have looked different. Instead, he got hurt and didn’t reach 65 games (finishing at 64, like Cunningham).
The injuries went all the way down to the wire, with Wembanyama suffering a rib injury in the final week of the regular season. He put up a comical 40-point, 13-rebound line in only 26 minutes on Friday, again torching the Mavericks. Wemby only played 64 regular-season games, but the Spurs made it to the NBA Cup final, which counts towards the 65 games.
For all the angst about elite players not being eligible for deserved awards and All-NBA consideration, there is something to be said for the drama of players needing to stay healthy down the stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 68 games played. Jokić got to 65 on the final day of the regular season. Wembanyama played through a minor injury to reach eligibility. Dončić and Cunningham fell one game short.
With the 65-game drama settled (well, mostly settled pending Luka’s exception challenge because he missed two games to see the birth of his daughter in Slovenia in December), the cases for the players have been laid out.
SGA is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP and is the choice in The Athletic’s latest NBA player poll. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points while shooting 55.3 percent from the field and averaged 6.6 assists.
Jokić averaged a triple-double (27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists), which almost feels ho-hum at this point because he did that last year, too. No player has a greater gravity on offense than Jokić. The most remarkable part of Jokić’s stats is that he managed to lead the league in rebounds and assists.
If Jokić has the most gravity on offense, Wembanyama has the opposite effect on defense. Offenses steer clear of the 7-foot-4 Frenchman. He led the league in blocks at 3.1 per game. No one else in the league even averaged 2 blocks. He will be the runaway Defensive Player of the Year and led the Spurs to 62 wins, including a 30-3 stretch to close the regular season (before losing the season finale to Denver with Wemby and others resting).
With so many viable candidates and the injury/65-game drama along the way, this MVP race was a wild one, even if Gilgeous-Alexander will go down as a repeat winner in the history books.
By Dan Santaromita, via The Athletic