By ESPN, 2026-05-18 02:03:00
这三位球员在2025-26赛季的表现无疑是出类拔萃的。
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 如今已蝉联NBA最有价值球员，他带领俄克拉荷马城雷霆队取得了64胜，并最终锁定西部头号种子。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 成为历史上最年轻且首位全票当选的最佳防守球员，并带领圣安东尼奥马刺队自2019年以来首次重返季后赛。与此同时，曾三次荣膺常规赛MVP的尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 在本赛季结束时领跑场均助攻榜（10.7次）和场均篮板榜（12.9个）。
以下是这三位超级巨星赛季表现的对比，以及常规赛结束时MVP竞争的态势。
2026年NBA MVP最终候选人
获胜者：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大
- 控球后卫 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
- 68场比赛 | 场均31.1分 | 场均4.3篮板 | 场均6.6助攻
尼古拉·约基奇
- 中锋 | 丹佛掘金
- 65场比赛 | 场均27.7分 | 场均12.9篮板 | 场均10.7助攻
维克托·文班亚马
- 前锋 | 圣安东尼奥马刺
- 64场比赛 | 场均25.0分 | 场均11.5篮板 | 场均3.1助攻
蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps) 的MVP选择
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大
- 尼古拉·约基奇
- 维克托·文班亚马
- 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)
- 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)
正如他在本赛季ESPN最后一次MVP模拟投票中所选的那样，亚历山大位列我的选票首位，他有望成为联盟历史上第16位多次获得MVP的球员。他在个人表现上的卓越，以及在球队应对伤病困扰和马刺队冲刺期追赶的情况下，仍能带领雷霆夺得64胜，这些因素让他稳居第一。
最大的争论在于约基奇与文班亚马谁该排在第二位。两人的理由都非常充分。
约基奇成为NBA历史上首位场均篮板和助攻均领跑全联盟的球员，并连续第二个赛季达成场均三双。与此同时，文班亚马是自2000年的沙奎尔·奥尼尔 (Shaquille O’Neal) 以来，首位场均贡献25分、10篮板和3盖帽的球员；而且当文班在场时，马刺队每百回合净胜对手高达惊人的17分。
最终，我在这里更看重“价值”二字，并将两人之间的出场时间差距作为胜负手。约基奇出战了2,265分钟，而文班出战了1,866分钟，这一显著的差距足以让天平向约基奇稍微倾斜。
NBA的评选规定简化了最后两个名额的选择。东契奇领跑全联盟场均得分（33.5分）、30+场次（28场）和40+场次（14场），并让洛杉矶湖人队整个赛季都保持在前三种子的竞争行列中。坎宁安的爆发则助力底特律活塞队打出了近二十年来的最佳赛季。
NBA MVP模拟投票 3.0
自2月1日以来，圣安东尼奥马刺队在29场比赛中赢下了27场，强势杀入全联盟最佳战绩的竞争行列。
因此，22岁的天才球员文班亚马也成功跻身NBA最有价值球员讨论的最前沿，他有机会成为自15年前的德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 以来，首位在职业生涯第三个赛季就获此殊荣的球员。
但这位身高7英尺4英寸的马刺大个子真的能挑战俄克拉荷马城雷霆队后卫亚历山大吗？后者有望成为联盟历史上第14位蝉联MVP的球员，以及第16位至少两次夺魁的球员。
根据ESPN 2025-26赛季第三次也是最后一次NBA MVP模拟投票显示，文班在赛季末的冲刺可能还差临门一脚。
在周一至周三对100名NBA媒体成员进行的投票中，亚历山大在常规赛仅剩10天的情况下依然领跑选票。这位27岁后卫在关键时刻的表现，让卫冕冠军克服了轮换阵容中的伤病问题，并始终保持对马刺队的领先优势。
尽管文班在赛季末发力，约基奇持续打出超凡表现，以及东契奇刚刚打出了一个总得分超过600分的月份——这是自1987年迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 以来首个在3月份达成此成就的球员——但亚历山大依然保持着明显的领先优势。他在100张选票中获得了88张第一顺位选票，此外还获得了9张第二顺位和3张第三顺位选票，总分达到958分，领先文班300分。
阅读更多蒂姆·邦坦普斯关于NBA MVP模拟投票3.0的内容。
博彩赔率的影响
MVP的竞争受到了NBA“65场规定”的巨大影响。所有MVP的主要竞争者在本赛季都曾遭遇伤病，导致长时间缺阵，而每当此时，他们的MVP赔率就会暴跌。在最终候选人中，文班在11月中旬首先受伤，随后约基奇在1月下旬受伤，亚历山大则在2月受伤。但由于文班和约基奇的伤病情况曾被预测可能导致两人无法达到65场的门槛，因此他们在DraftKings上的MVP赔率大幅下滑；而亚历山大的伤病从未真正威胁到他的评选资格，所以他的赔率从未动摇。此外，当他回归时，他以单场36分的爆发表现开启了一段火热的收官冲刺，确保了雷霆队的全联盟第一种子位置，这也可能让他力压文班和约基奇，锁定了连续第二个MVP。
有趣的是，高阶数据可能会呈现出不同的视角。近年来，影响力指标与MVP的归属高度相关。尤其是约基奇，在过去几个赛季中一直是在场/不在场正负值的王者，这与他连续两次排在MVP前两名的表现相吻合。但本赛季，约基奇被文班超越了，后者领跑全联盟：当他在场时，马刺队的每百回合净胜分比他不在场时提高了16.0分。约基奇（13.5分）和亚历山大（12.6分）在这一指标上的表现也很出色，但当文班公开表态竞争MVP，称由于他在攻防两端的结合，他相信自己对NBA的影响力最大时，确实有具体的数据支持他的论点。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2026 NBA MVP finalists: Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic and Wemby
2026 NBA MVP finalists: Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic and Wemby
The trio undoubtedly set itself apart throughout 2025-26.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, now the back-to-back NBA Most Valuable Player, helped lead Oklahoma City to a 64-win season en route to the No. 1 seed. Victor Wembanyama became the youngest and first unanimous winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award, and muscled San Antonio back to the postseason for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic, the three-time league MVP, finished the season as the assists (10.7) and rebounds (12.9) per game leader.
See how the three superstars’ seasons matched up, as well as where the race stood at the end of the regular season.
2026 NBA MVP finalists
Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Point guard | Oklahoma City Thunder
- 68 games | 31.1 PPG | 4.3 RPG | 6.6 APG
Nikola Jokic
- Center | Denver Nuggets
- 65 games | 27.7 PPG | 12.9 RPG | 10.7 APG
Victor Wembanyama
- Forward | San Antonio Spurs
- 64 games | 25.0 PPG | 11.5 RPG | 3.1 APG
Tim Bontemps’ MVP pick
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Nikola Jokic
- Victor Wembanyama
- Luka Doncic
- Cade Cunningham
Just as he did in ESPN’s final MVP straw poll of the season, Gilgeous-Alexander sits atop my ballot, and he should become the 16th multiple-time MVP in league history. His individual brilliance, along with driving the Thunder to 64 wins while the team fended off injury issues and the Spurs down the stretch, kept him No. 1.
The biggest debate was Jokic vs. Wembanyama for the second spot. Both have impressive cases.
Jokic became the first player to lead the NBA in rebounds and assists per game and averaged a triple-double for a second consecutive season. Wembanyama, meanwhile, is the first player to average 25 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000, and the Spurs outscored their opponents by a staggering 17 points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the court.
Ultimately, I focused on “valuable” here and used the minutes gap between the two as a tiebreaker. Jokic played 2,265 compared with Wembanyama’s 1,866, a significant enough difference to tip the debate slightly toward Jokic.
The NBA’s ruling simplified the final two choices. Doncic led the league in points per game (33.5), 30-point games (28) and 40-point games (14) while keeping the Lakers in the mix for a top-three seed all season. Cunningham’s breakout powered Detroit to its best season in a generation.
Read more on Tim Bontemps’ picks for the NBA’s top individual awards.
NBA MVP Straw Poll 3.0
Since Feb. 1, the San Antonio Spurs have won 27 of 29 games to force their way into the mix for the NBA’s best record.
As a result, 22-year-old phenom Victor Wembanyama has forced his way to the top of the NBA’s Most Valuable Player discussion, with a chance to become the first player to win the award as early as his third season since Derrick Rose did so 15 years ago.
But will the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 big man actually challenge Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who can become the 14th player in league history to win back-to-back MVPs and the 16th to win it at least twice?
According to ESPN’s third and final NBA MVP straw poll of 2025-26, Wemby’s late-season push will fall just short.
In a poll of 100 NBA media members conducted Monday through Wednesday, Gilgeous-Alexander leads our ballot with only 10 days left in the regular season. The 27-year-old guard’s clutch play has allowed the defending champions to overcome injuries throughout their rotation and remain a step ahead of the Spurs.
And, despite Wembanyama’s late charge, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic’s continued otherworldly play and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic coming off a 600-point month – the first in March since Michael Jordan in 1987 – Gilgeous-Alexander remains comfortably in front. SGA landed the top spot on 88 out of 100 ballots while picking up nine second- and three third-place votes for a total of 958 points, 300 clear of Wembanyama.
Read more from Tim Bontemps on the NBA MVP Straw Poll 3.0.
Betting impact
The MVP race was hugely impacted by the NBA’s 65-game rule. All of the major contenders for MVP suffered injuries at some point in the season that led to extended absences, and when they did their MVP odds cratered. Among the finalists, Wembanyama suffered his injury first in mid-November, then Jokic in late January and Gilgeous-Alexander in February. But while Wemby’s and Jokic’s injuries projected that both could miss the 65-game threshold and thus plummeted both’s MVP odds on DraftKings, SGA’s injury never truly threatened his eligibility so his odds never slid. Plus, when he returned he did so with a 36-point explosion that touched off a scorching finish for the Thunder that secured them the top overall seed and may have secured him his second straight MVP ahead of Wemby and Jokic.
Interestingly, the analytics may tell a different story. In recent years, the impact stats have correlated well with the MVP. Particularly, Jokic has been the king of on-court/off-court +/- for the past several seasons that correspond with his run of top-2 MVP finishes. But this season, Jokic was surpassed by Wembanyama, who leads the league with the Spurs scoring margin improving by 16.0 points per 100 possessions with him on the court versus with him off. Jokic (13.5 PP100) and SGA (12.6 PP100) both measured well in this impact stat as well, but when Wembanyama made his public case for MVP by saying he believed he had the biggest impact in the NBA due to his blend of defense and offense, there is tangible data to support his argument.
By ESPN, via ESPN