By Sam Amick | The Athletic, 2026-02-27 14:42:30
让我们暂时从关于摆烂的讨论中抽身一分钟。
诚然，由于众多球队正竞相“摆烂”，NBA正面临着一个重大问题。而且，由于合作伙伴（博彩和媒体）以及部分球迷的广泛不满，联盟正承受着巨大的压力，必须尽快找到解决方案。
但即便在这样令人不悦的背景下，还有一些更具娱乐性的事情正在发生，不应被忽视：精英球队之间真正的竞争，一个由顶级球队组成的开放竞争格局，这些球队在某些时刻看起来都有能力夺得那个该死的总冠军。
还记得当时大家认为这届冠军头衔（及卫冕）非俄克拉荷马城雷霆莫属吗？在前往拉斯维加斯参加NBA杯赛之前，雷霆队的战绩为24胜1负，当时最热门的话题是他们能否在捧起另一座拉里·奥布莱恩奖杯的途中，打破金州勇士队的历史胜场纪录。但随后，他们在半决赛中被圣安东尼奥马刺队击溃，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在那个舞台上证明了自己是完美的克星，并在赛后关于“纯粹篮球（ethical basketball）”的谈话中向雷霆队炫耀。正如我当时所写的那样，我确实很高兴这终究不会演变成一场独角戏。
在随后的两个多月里，这一令人欣慰的事实被反复印证。可以认为（正如你将在下文看到的），我们正处于一场全面的角逐之中。以下是对AC数据（季中赛后，After Cup）的深入挖掘，并分析了为什么这些球队都在不同程度上仍有夺冠机会。距离常规赛结束还有六周时间，球队按笔者目前对竞争格局的观察顺序排列。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (Oklahoma City Thunder)
战绩： 21胜14负
净胜率： 6.9（第五）
进攻效率： 115.5（第11）
防守效率： 108.6（第三）
最大疑问： 健康
首先，让我们明确一点：雷霆队并不是像《空中大灌篮》(Space Jam)里那样突然丧失了天赋。正是雷霆的伤病报告，在很大程度上让其他竞争者赶了上来。看看他们在此期间众多的痛点和缺席场次：
- 现任MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) (10场)：因右脚踝扭伤缺席一场，最近九场因腹部拉伤缺席（预计周五晚上对阵丹佛时回归）。
- 全明星球员杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) (15场)：腿筋拉伤，随后伤势复发（预计将在3月初重新评估）。不过这里有一个前提：雷霆24胜1负的开局是在杰伦·威廉姆斯仅出战6场的情况下取得的。
- 防守专家亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) (12场)：手指扭伤、背部酸痛、右内收肌拉伤和左脚踝扭伤（他缺席了周三负于底特律的比赛，但预计周五出战）。
- 替补大个子赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) (21场)：右比目鱼肌拉伤和右角膜磨损（目前已回归）。
- 替补后卫阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) (17场)：腹部拉伤、脑震荡保护协议、左脚踝扭伤（预计很快进行重新评估）。这位23岁的球员在12月12日之前，即杰伦·威廉姆斯缺阵期间，场均得到14.2分。
- 替补前锋杰林·威廉姆斯 (Jaylin Williams) (14场)：右脚跟滑囊炎、左臀部挫伤（目前已回归，并在周三对阵底特律的比赛中斩获职业生涯最高的30分）。
所有这些都是想说明，至少从目前来看，雷霆队的领先地位依然稳固。但无论他们是如何走到这一步的，残酷的现实是，这与他们在前几个月给对手制造的混乱局面相去甚远。前后的对比令人震惊。
截至12月12日，雷霆的净胜率为17.2，几乎是排名第二的休斯顿火箭（10.3）的两倍；防守效率为103.3，让排名第二的底特律（111.0）相形见绌。时代变了，很大程度上是因为上述原因，看看他们能否在最关键时刻重新找回那份魔力，将是非常有趣的事情。
圣安东尼奥马刺 (San Antonio Spurs)
战绩： 26胜9负
净胜率： 8.7（第二）
进攻效率： 116.3（第六）
防守效率： 107.7（第二）
最大疑问： 缺乏经验
即便马刺本赛季从未面对过雷霆，他们的整体表现也足以让他们出现在这份名单中。毕竟——如果你还没注意到的话——他们在周四以126-110击败布鲁克林篮网后，已经取得了11连胜。
但正是这一（极具关联性的）数据点让他们的季后赛前景如此引人入胜：圣安东尼奥在对阵俄克拉荷马城的五场比赛中赢下了四场，这意味着马刺占据了雷霆总失场数（共15场）的近三分之一。作为争冠的证明，常规赛的表现莫过于此。
所有的这些杀伤力都是在12月12日之后的这段关键时期造成的。而且，马刺的这些胜利中只有一场存疑，因为在2月4日雷霆核心全员缺阵之前，在其中的三场比赛中，雷霆阵容非常健康（雷霆唯一的胜利是在1月13日以119-98取得的，当时双方核心均在阵中）。即使抛开对阵雷霆的比赛，马刺也一直在积累高质量的胜利，让你不禁思考他们到底能走多远（他们对阵这份名单上除雷霆以外的其他球队战绩为7胜6负）。
真正的疑问在于，一旦季后赛来临，这支上赛季甚至没有进入季后赛的马刺队是否会因为缺乏经验而无法完成这一宏伟壮举。而且毫无疑问，历史并不站在他们这一边。
历史上只有六支球队在上一年度未进入季后赛的情况下最终夺冠，而且所有现代案例（2007-08赛季的凯尔特人、2019-20赛季的湖人和2021-22赛季的勇士）的情况都与马刺大不相同。那些球队都拥有老牌球星，拥有各种季后赛（以及总冠军）经验。除了哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 及其2015年的金州冠军（以及2016年的总决赛经历）、德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在萨克拉门托的一轮季后赛经历（2023年）以及卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 在波士顿担任替补的时光外，这支马刺并不具备这些。更好的对比可能是1977年的波特兰开拓者队，当时一位名叫比尔·沃尔顿 (Bill Walton) 的24岁大个子，凭借出色的攻防全能技巧，在球队前一年无缘季后赛后，在夺冠旅程中发挥了关键作用。
不过，这种历史背景真的重要吗？文班亚马在场均得到23.7分、11.2个篮板、2.9次助攻、2.8次盖帽和1次抢断的同时，正引发MVP的呼声，他是联盟从未见过的攻防两端统治力。当他在场时，马刺的净胜率为14.6，而他不在场时仅为0.2（他在场时防守效率为104，不在场时为113）。在进攻端，圣安东尼奥有八名球员场均得分至少10分，这一事实将为季后赛对手带来一系列难题。
对于雷霆和其余球队来说，最可怕的部分是什么？马刺的成功秘诀远不止文班亚马。
底特律活塞 (Detroit Pistons)
战绩： 23胜9负
净胜率： 9.5（第一）
进攻效率： 115.9（并列第七）
防守效率： 106.4（第一）
最大疑问： 进攻——在季后赛中
如果说有一场比赛能够凸显两支精英球队的所有优缺点——以及为什么我在这份名单上给予马刺比底特律更高的评价——那就是周一圣安东尼奥击败活塞的比赛（114-103）。
在一方面，马刺——凭借前述的进攻深度——在文班、福克斯和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 三人组总计49投仅17中的情况下依然存活。德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 得到28分（14投10中），而朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 贡献了17分（12投6中）。当核心成员受阻时，他们仍有大量选择。
在另一方面，底特律深知凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 无法独力支撑，这位常驻的MVP候选人被压制到26投仅5中（卡斯尔承担了主要防守任务，并得到了福克斯、瓦塞尔、尚帕尼的帮助，文班亚马在比赛后期还贡献了令人惊叹的协防）。但与马刺不同，当第一选择失准时，活塞就没有足够的后手。（杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 13投10中得到25分，但其余角色球员表现挣扎。）
尽管活塞确实拥有马刺所缺乏的季后赛经验（去年4月在首轮与纽约尼克斯鏖战六场），但这种进攻态势经常被提及，认为这可能会阻碍他们在本次季后赛实现重大突破。当季后赛防守对康宁汉姆使出浑身解数，并迫使“其他人”击败他们时，会发生什么？这是一个公平的问题，他们必须在4月到来时给出答案。三分球投射匮乏是质疑者名单上的下一项，他们场均命中11.1个三分球排在第28位，三分命中率为34.9%排在第22位。
现在说点好消息。他们的防守——展现出的身体对抗强度足以让比尔·兰比尔、里克·马洪、丹尼斯·罗德曼以及老“坏孩子军团”的其他成员感到自豪——简直是叹为观止。正如活塞名宿伊赛亚·托马斯 (Isiah Thomas) 在2月19日底特律在麦迪逊广场花园击溃纽约（118-80）后告诉我们的伊恩·奥康纳时所说：“（活塞是）目前NBA中唯一一支打着与众不同篮球风格的球队。他们回到了我所说的老活塞DNA——防守、篮板、盖帽和合理的投篮。”
丹佛掘金 (Denver Nuggets)
战绩： 19胜16负
净胜率： 1.6（第14）
进攻效率： 118.2（第三）
防守效率： 116.5（第23）
最大疑问： 健康与防守
掘金队的危险信号有些微妙。
他们最大的问题是健康——具体说是腿筋——阿伦·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 和佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 的持续缺阵削弱了他们的夺冠希望。30岁的戈登对当今NBA任何非超级巨星来说都同样宝贵，但到目前为止，他在丹佛的59场比赛中仅出战了23场。23岁的沃特森在2月4日腿筋受伤倒下前正处于突破性的赛季。如果他们能以某种方式解决第一个问题，那么第二个问题——防守——可能也会迎刃而解。戈登和沃特森对这支球队来说就是如此重要。
尽管目前还没有明确的回归时间表，但主教练大卫·阿德尔曼 (David Adelman) 最近表达了一些乐观情绪，认为这种因果理论可能很快就会得到验证。
“我的希望是我们在剩下20场比赛时能迎回全员，”阿德尔曼在周二告诉记者。“那将是我的——我每晚祈祷的事情，这样我们才能真正看到球队的实力。……我们知道如果全员健康，我们会成为什么样。”
单凭冠军履历就足以让掘金获得疑从无有的优待，但时间已经不多了。正如你在上面看到的，他们在两个多月的时间里表现平庸。三届MVP尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 在此期间因左膝伤势缺席了16场比赛，场均得到27.9分、12.8个篮板和9.8次助攻，但即便他在场，丹佛在那段时期的战绩也低于平均水平（9胜10负）。
那么……为什么掘金依然值得相信？因为如果你回看上个季后赛，他们在首轮通过七场大战击败了势头强劲的洛杉矶快船，随后在次轮将雷霆逼入抢七，很明显，这支球队在健康时完全有能力击败任何人。当时如此，现在亦然。在总经理卡尔文·布斯和主教练迈克尔·马龙在赛季末被解雇后，他们依然走得那么远，这让一切更加令人印象深刻。
此外，管理层的新负责人乔恩·华莱士 (Jon Wallace) 和本·滕泽 (Ben Tenzer) 增加了去年夏天严重缺乏的深度，这肯定能让他们在最关键时刻更进一步。再次强调，前提是健康。
波士顿凯尔特人 (Boston Celtics)
战绩： 23胜10负
净胜率： 8.5（第三）
进攻效率： 118.1（第四）
防守效率： 109.6（第四）
最大疑问： 杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)
无论凯尔特人接下来的表现如何，我们能否花点时间欣赏一下杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 本赛季的表现？在经历了多年关于“双探花（The Jays）”是否兼容的议论后，即使在布朗以荣膺NBA总决赛MVP（更不用说东决MVP）结束波士顿2024年的夺冠之路后，人们对他作为第一选择的地位仍有疑虑。如今，这些问题已得到了无可争议的回答。老实说，关于他入选MVP候选名单的呼声还不够响亮。
在塔图姆因跟腱断裂缺阵期间，布朗场均得到29.1分（联盟第四）、7.1个篮板、4.8次助攻和1次抢断，带领球队高居东部第二，这令人震惊。湖人队的卢卡·东契奇是唯一一位达到29-7-4数据的球员。再加上佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard) 职业生涯的最佳表现（场均17.2分，5.4次助攻），以及德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)、内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta) 和安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)（在被交易换取尼古拉·武切维奇之前）等人的重大贡献，这支球队比预想的要强大得多。
他们是整份名单中唯一一支自12月13日以来进攻和防守效率均排名联盟前五的球队。顺便提一句，如果乔·马祖拉赢得年度最佳教练，谁会有异议呢？
但就凯尔特人的争冠前景而言，真正的谜团在于塔图姆是否接近复出。这位六届全明星球员最近恢复了五对五训练，常规赛结束前复出的大门似乎已经完全敞开。如果塔图姆回归，波士顿理应享有与掘金一样的“昔日冠军”VIP待遇。这并不意味着第19面冠军旗帜一定会到来——特别是考虑到塔图姆需要重新找回最佳状态——但可能性将实实在在地存在。
明尼苏达森林狼 (Minnesota Timberwolves)
战绩： 21胜14负
净胜率： 4.1（第七）
进攻效率： 116.8（第五）
防守效率： 112.7（12th）
最大疑问： 不稳定性
如果你还没注意到，在对待那些有过显著成就的球队时，我正呈现出一种趋势：我给了他们很大的宽容。因此，尽管森林狼本赛季大部分时间表现不佳，最近的一个例子是在周四战胜缺少科怀·伦纳德的快船队的比赛中，过程远比预想的要艰难（94-88），但你绝对不能忽视他们已经连续两次打入西部决赛的事实。更具体地说，当前的核心阵容——安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)、朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)、贾登·麦克丹尼尔斯等人在上赛季常规赛表现平庸的情况下，依然克服困难打入了深度的季后赛（在西决中五场负于雷霆）。
爱德华兹和森林狼能连续三年打入西决吗？ (Matt Krohn / Imagn Images)
爱德华兹保持着他一贯的活力和观赏性，场均得到29.6分（联盟第三）、5.3个篮板、3.7次助攻、1.4次抢断和0.8次盖帽。但即便是他也无法阻止森林狼本赛季过山车式的走势，他们表现出能击败顶级强队的能力（对阵雷霆和马刺2胜1负；对阵波士顿1胜0负；对阵克利夫兰1胜1负），却也会莫名其妙地输给弱旅。他们曾输给过萨克拉门托、孟菲斯（两次）、布鲁克林、犹他和新奥尔良。他们对阵丹佛是0胜3负。
交易截止日签下的26岁后卫阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 带来了回报，自他从芝加哥加盟以来，明尼苏达在六场比赛中赢下了五场（他目前场均贡献11.5分、2.8次助攻，出场26.8分钟）。这笔交易虽不像他们去年夏天尝试达成的凯文·杜兰特交易或在截止日心仪的扬尼斯·阿德托昆博重磅交易那样轰动，但仍是一次高质量的补充。
克利夫兰骑士 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
战绩： 22-12
净胜率： 5.5（第六）
进攻效率： 118.6（第二）
防守效率： 113.1（第12）
最大疑问： 詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)
因为克利夫兰在截止日达成了最具潜在影响力的交易，用达里乌斯·加兰换来了快船队的詹姆斯·哈登，所以关于其争冠正统性（或缺失）的讨论焦点变得更加狭窄。从本质上讲，上述信息在他们签下一位历史级巨星后其关联度有所下降，而这位巨星长期以来的季后赛失意史早已被详尽记录。
但在哈登出战的七场比赛中——骑士赢下了其中的六场——不难看出总经理科比·奥尔特曼为什么要做出这一举动。加兰的出勤率是一个大问题，而且他在防守端的体型劣势让他们非常被动。由于多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 的续约谈判在今年夏天显得如此关键，现在正是发出明确信号的时刻：他们正严肃地寻求通往巅峰的道路。
正如我们的乔·瓦登在周四所写，大个子贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 在哈登到来之前已经开始展现统治力。埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 最近的缺阵（因小腿拉伤缺席八场）似乎激发了这一积极因素，而哈登的风格只会让两人的表现更进一步。加盟克利夫兰后，哈登场均得到18.2分、8次助攻和5个篮板，尽管右拇指骨折让他缺席了周三负于密尔沃基的比赛。最初有报道称哈登计划带伤出战，因此目前尚不清楚这会在多大程度上影响进度。
纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks)
战绩： 20胜15负
净胜率： 3.2（第九）
进攻效率： 115.7（并列第九）
防守效率： 112.4（第10）
最大疑问： 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)
就像森林狼一样，尼克斯——正如我们的弗雷德·卡茨本周撰文写道——与联盟中任何顶级球队一样不稳定。虽然弗雷德令人信服地指出，这种弱点是全队共有的，并详细分析了从杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 到米卡尔·布里奇斯、OG·阿努诺比、乔什·哈特等所有人，但谈到唐斯时，很难忽视那个显而易见的问题。
他要么表现得像上赛季那样自如且极具统治力，当时他在汤姆·锡伯杜教练手下打出了职业生涯代表作，助力球队打入东决。要么……他将继续在主教练迈克·布朗的体系中挣扎，难以发挥最佳水平，尼克斯也会因此功亏一篑。就实际争冠竞争力而言，除非唐斯在整个过程中表现惊艳，否则很难看到尼克斯完成任务。
这也是另一支因为过去的成就而被给予余地的球队，但过去两个月的表现并不值得夸耀。更重要的是，对阵底特律0胜3负的战绩为未来埋下了巨大隐患。更不用说周二输给克利夫兰的比赛了。老板詹姆斯·多兰在1月初明确表示，他以“不夺冠便失败”的视角看待这支球队——“我们应该赢得总决赛，对吧？”他曾这样说——对于所有相关人员来说，压力显然巨大。
遗珠点评
• 如果休斯顿火箭队最终举行了夺冠游行，我将第一个站出来认错。但说实话，我目前看不到这种可能。
正如我最近所写的那样，大个子斯蒂文·亚当斯因脚踝受伤赛季报销，依然是全NBA最被低估的缺阵损失之一。即便休斯顿在周四逆转战胜奥兰多——这是他们过去八场比赛中的第六场胜利——但自这位大个子倒下以来，火箭的净胜率仅排在第九（战绩为13胜6负）。原本极度依赖亚当斯创造二次进攻机会的进攻，在那段时期仅排名第16位。
凯文·杜兰特与阿尔佩伦·申京的组合在兼容性方面存在明显问题。赛季前失去资深控卫弗雷德·范弗利特（跟腱断裂）的影响正逐月显得愈发沉重。与其他许多等待关键球员回归的球队不同，这支火箭队没有援军。
他们是一支优秀的球队，自12月13日以来的战绩为21胜15负，但可能还不够优秀。
• 夏洛特黄蜂队值得一提，因为他们在赛季后期制造了如此多的……嗡鸣声（Buzz）。尽管自12月13日以来他们取得了22胜13负的战绩，但如果他们能从极有可能参加的附加赛中突围（目前排在第10，距离第6名差4.5个胜场），他们将面对东部的精英。
尽管如此，他们在过去16场比赛中赢下13场的这段表现，使他们成为下半赛季“联盟通（League Pass）”最受关注的宠儿。他们主要依靠布兰登·米勒、康·克内佩尔、迈尔斯·布里奇斯、拉梅洛·鲍尔和穆萨·迪亚巴特的先发阵容，这套阵容仍然是全联盟最有效的（在176分钟内净胜率为32.1）。
这其中最具讽刺意味的是什么？排名第二的五人组是雷霆的阵容：吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、吕冈茨·多尔特、切特·霍姆格伦、杰伦·威廉姆斯和卡森·华莱士（在117分钟内净胜率为25.3）。所以，考虑到黄蜂在精英阵容中的地位，也许他们终究是在向着冠军迈进。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Spurs, Pistons, Celtics and 5 other NBA teams with a real shot at a championship
Spurs, Pistons, Celtics and 5 other NBA teams with a real shot at a championship
Let’s take a quick break from the tanking conversation for a minute.
Yes, the NBA has a major problem on its hands because of all the teams that are racing to the bottom. And yes, the league is under major pressure to find a solution ASAP because of the widespread discontent among its partners (gambling and media) as well as some fans.
But even with that unsavory backdrop, there’s something far more entertaining happening that should not be overlooked: Real competition among the elite, a wide-open field of top-tier teams that — at times — look capable of winning the whole damn thing.
Remember when this was Oklahoma City’s title (defense) to lose? The Thunder were 24-1 heading into the NBA Cup games in Las Vegas, where the most relevant storyline at that time was whether they could break the Golden State Warriors’ all-time wins mark en route to another Larry O’Brien trophy. But then they got smacked in the semifinal by the San Antonio Spurs, with Victor Wembanyama proving to be a perfect foil on that stage and then kicking dirt in the Thunder’s eye with his postgame talk of “ethical basketball.” As I wrote at the time, I was admittedly delighted that this wasn’t going to be a one-horse race after all.
But that welcome truth has been confirmed quite often in the two-plus months since, and there’s an argument to be made (as you’ll see below) that we have ourselves an all-out derby. Here’s a deeper dive into the AC data — After Cup — and a breakdown of why each of these teams, to varying degrees, still has a shot at going all the way. With six weeks to go until the end of the regular season, teams are listed in order of how this particular scribe sees the field at this late point.
Important note for After Cup evaluation: All data since Dec. 13…
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 21-14
Net rating: 6.9 (fifth)
Offensive rating: 115.5 (11th)
Defensive rating: 108.6 (third)
Biggest question mark: Health
First things first, let’s make this much clear: It’s not as if the Thunder just went full “Space Jam” and lost their talent. It’s OKC’s medical chart, more than anything, that has allowed the rest of this field to catch up. Take a look at their many pain points and games missed during this span.
- Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10): One game for a right ankle sprain, and the last nine games with an abdominal strain (he’s expected back Friday night against Denver).
- All-Star Jalen Williams (15): Hamstring strain, followed by a re-aggravation (he’s expected to be re-evaluated in early March). One disclaimer here, though: The Thunder’s 24-1 start came with Jalen Williams missing all but six games.
- Defensive specialist Alex Caruso (12): Finger sprain, back soreness, right adductor strain and a left ankle sprain (he missed Wednesday’s loss against Detroit with the ankle but is expected to play Friday).
- Reserve big man Isaiah Hartenstein (21): Right soleus strain and a right corneal abrasion (he has since returned).
- Reserve guard Ajay Mitchell (17): Abdominal strain, concussion protocol, left ankle sprain (re-evaluation expected soon). The 23-year-old had averaged 14.2 points in Jalen Williams’ absence through Dec. 12.
- Reserve forward Jaylin Williams (14): Right heel bursitis, left glute contusion (he has since returned and scored a career-high 30 points in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday).
All of this is to say that the Thunder’s status as front-runners remains, at least from this vantage point. But no matter how they got here, the harsh reality is that it’s a far cry from the chaos they’d caused for all comers in the first few months. The before-and-after contrast is nothing short of staggering.
Through Dec. 12, the Thunder had a net rating of 17.2 that was nearly double the second-place Houston Rockets (10.3) and a defensive rating of 103.3 that dwarfed second-place Detroit (111.0). Times have changed, largely for the reasons stated above, and it will be very interesting to see if they can recapture that magic when it matters most.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 26-9
Net rating: 8.7 (second)
Offensive rating: 116.3 (sixth)
Defensive rating: 107.7 (second)
Biggest question mark: Inexperience
Even if the Spurs hadn’t faced the Thunder at all this season, their body of work would be good enough to warrant inclusion here. After all — if you somehow haven’t noticed — they’ve now won 11 games in a row after downing Brooklyn 126-110 on Thursday.
But it’s this (extremely relevant) data point that makes their postseason prospects so intriguing: San Antonio has won four of its five games against OKC, meaning the Spurs account for nearly a third of OKC’s total losses (15 in all). As title-contending proof points go, it doesn’t get much better than that during the regular season.
All of that damage was done during this post-Dec. 12 span that has been so telling. There was only an asterisk in one of those Spurs’ wins, too, as the Thunder were as healthy as they’ve been all season in three of those games before playing without their entire core in a Feb. 4 loss (OKC’s lone win came on Jan. 13, 119-98, when both sides had their respective cores). Even beyond the OKC matchups, the Spurs have continued to pile up quality wins that make you wonder how far they might be able to go (they’re 7-6 against the non-Thunder teams on this list).
The real question, once the playoffs arrive, is whether this Spurs team that didn’t even make the playoffs last season is simply too inexperienced to pull off this monumental feat. And make no mistake, history is not on their side.
Only six teams have ever won it all after not being in the postseason the year before, and all of the modern-day examples (the 2007-08 Celtics, 2019-20 Lakers and 2021-22 Warriors) have a very different profile from that of the Spurs. Those were all veteran-laden, star-stacked teams that had all sorts of previous playoff (as well as championship) experience. Save for Harrison Barnes and his Golden State title in 2015 (and an NBA Finals appearance in 2016), De’Aaron Fox and his one playoff series in Sacramento (2023) and Luke Kornet’s time as a reserve in Boston, these Spurs are not that. The better comparison might be the Portland Trail Blazers team that won it all in 1977, when a 24-year-old big man with remarkable two-way skills who went by the name of Bill Walton played a pivotal part in the title journey after they had missed the playoffs the year before.
Does that historical context truly matter, though? Wembanyama, who is garnering MVP buzz while averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.8 blocks and one steal, is the kind of two-way force the league has never seen. The Spurs have a net rating of 14.6 when he’s on the floor and just 0.2 when he’s off (the defensive rating is 104 when he’s on and 113 when he’s off). On the offensive end, the fact that San Antonio has eight players averaging at least 10 points presents a litany of problems for playoff opponents.
The scariest part, for the Thunder and the rest of the field? The Spurs’ formula goes way beyond Wembanyama.
Detroit Pistons
Record: 23-9
Net rating: 9.5 (first)
Offensive rating: 115.9 (tied for seventh)
Defensive rating: 106.4 (first)
Biggest question mark: Offense — in the playoffs
If one game could highlight all that is good and bad about two elite teams — and why I give the Spurs the nod on this list over Detroit — it was San Antonio’s win Monday over the Pistons (114-103).
On one side, you had the Spurs — with their aforementioned depth on the offensive end — surviving despite the trio of Wembanyama, Fox and Stephon Castle shooting just 17 of 49 from the field combined. Devin Vassell had 28 points (on 10-of-14 shooting) while Julian Champagnie added 17 (6-of-12). When the main guys were stymied, they still had a bevy of options.
On the other side, where Detroit is well aware that Cade Cunningham can’t do it all, its resident MVP candidate was held to 5-of-26 shooting (Castle had the primary assignment, with help from Fox, Vassell, Champagnie and incredible help-side defense from Wembanyama late). But unlike the Spurs, the Pistons just didn’t have enough when their primary option faltered. (Jalen Duren did have 25 on 10-of-13 shooting, but the rest of the supporting cast struggled.)
Even though the Pistons do have the sort of playoff experience the Spurs lack, having taken the New York Knicks to six games in the first round last April, this offensive dynamic is routinely cited as the kind of thing that might hold them back from a major postseason leap this time around. What happens when playoff defenses throw the kitchen sink at Cunningham and force the “others” to beat them? It’s a fair question to ask, and one they’ll have to answer when April rolls around. The lack of 3-point shooting is next up on that list from their skeptics, as they’re 28th in makes per game at 11.1 and 22nd in 3-point percentage at 34.9.
Now for the good news. Their defense — which features a level of physicality that should make Bill Laimbeer, Rick Mahorn, Dennis Rodman and the rest of the old Bad Boys proud — is simply spectacular. As Pistons legend Isiah Thomas told our Ian O’Connor after Detroit destroyed New York in the Garden on Feb. 19 (118-80), “(The Pistons are) the one team in the NBA right now that is really playing a totally different brand of basketball than everyone else. They have gone back to what I would say the old Pistons DNA has been — defense, rebounding, shot blocking and taking good shots.”
Denver Nuggets
Record: 19-16
Net rating: 1.6 (14th)
Offensive rating: 118.2 (third)
Defensive rating: 116.5 (23rd)
Biggest question mark(s): Health and defense
The Nuggets’ red flags are a bit nuanced.
Their biggest issue is health — hamstrings, more specifically — with the continued absences of Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson compromising their title hopes. The 30-year-old Gordon is as invaluable as any non-superstar in today’s NBA, but he has played in just 23 of Denver’s 59 games to this point. The 23-year-old Watson was in the midst of a breakout season when he went down with his hamstring injury on Feb. 4. And if they could somehow fix that first problem, then the second — the defense — may very well be solved as well. Gordon and Watson are that important to this group.
Yet while there’s no clear timeline for their returns, head coach David Adelman offered some optimism recently that this cause-and-effect theory might be tested soon.
“My hope is that we get the full group back (with) 20 games to go,” Adelman told reporters on Tuesday. “That’d be my — what I pray for nightly, just so we can actually see what it is. …We know what we can be if we’re fully healthy.”
The championship credentials alone are enough to give the Nuggets the benefit of the doubt, but time is running out. As you can see above, they have painted a picture of mediocrity for more than two months now. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokić missed 16 games with a left knee injury in that span, averaging 27.9 points, 12.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists, but Denver has been subpar even when he played during that stretch (9-10).
So … why is there still reason to believe for the Nuggets? Because if you hit the rewind back to the last postseason, when they downed the surging LA Clippers in seven games in the first round before taking OKC to seven in the second round, it was quite clear that this group was still fully capable of beating anyone — when healthy. It’s as true now as it was then. The fact that they got that far after the late-season firings of general manager Calvin Booth and head coach Michael Malone made it that much more impressive.
What’s more, the new front office co-heads of Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer added the kind of depth that was sorely lacking last summer and could certainly put them over the top when it matters most. Again, health permitting.
Boston Celtics
Record: 23-10
Net rating: 8.5 (third)
Offensive rating: 118.1 (fourth)
Defensive rating: 109.6 (fourth)
Biggest question mark: Jayson Tatum
Regardless of what comes next for these Celtics, can we take a minute to appreciate what Jaylen Brown has done this season? After all those years of chatter about whether or not the ‘The Jays” were compatible, and even after Brown capped Boston’s title run in 2024 by winning NBA Finals MVP (not to mention East finals MVP), there were still doubts about his status as a No. 1 option. Well, those questions have been undeniably answered. And honestly, there isn’t enough noise about his case to be on the MVP short list.
With Tatum’s torn Achilles keeping him away, Brown has averaged 29.1 points (fourth in the league), 7.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and one steal for this team that — shockingly — is second in the East. The Lakers’ Luka Dončić is the only other player hitting those 29-7-4 marks. Combined with the career year from Payton Pritchard (17.2 points, 5.4 assists per) and big-time contributions from the likes of Derrick White, Neemias Queta and Anfernee Simons (before he was traded for Nikola Vučević), this group has been far more formidable than expected.
They’re the only team on this entire list that has been top five in offensive and defensive ratings since that Dec. 13 date. As a related aside, who could argue if Joe Mazzulla wins Coach of the Year?
But in terms of the Celtics’ title prospects, the real mystery is whether Tatum is nearing a return. The six-time All-Star returned to five-on-five work recently, and the door to a possible return before the end of the regular season appears to be wide open. If that happens, Boston deserves the same sort of VIP treatment that the Nuggets have earned because of their status as former champs. That doesn’t mean a 19th banner would happen — especially considering Tatum would need to work his way back into top form — but the possibility would be alive and well.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 21-14
Net rating: 4.1 (seventh)
Offensive rating: 116.8 (fifth)
Defensive rating: 112.7 (12th)
Biggest question mark: Inconsistency
If you haven’t noticed quite yet, there’s a trend emerging here as it relates to teams with notable past accomplishments: I’m giving them a whole lot of grace. So while the Timberwolves have been underperforming for most of this season, with the latest example coming in a win over the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers on Thursday that was much closer than it should have been (94-88), you simply can’t ignore the fact that they’ve appeared in two consecutive Western Conference finals. More specifically, this current core — Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels et al — overcame bouts with regular-season mediocrity last season en route to another deep postseason run (they fell to five games in the West finals to OKC).
Can Anthony Edwards and the Wolves make it three West finals in a row? (Matt Krohn / Imagn Images)
Edwards has been his dynamic and entertaining self, averaging 29.6 points (third in the league), 5.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks. But even he hasn’t been able to stop the roller-coaster nature of the Timberwolves’ season, as they’ve shown an ability to beat the best (2-1 against OKC and San Antonio; 1-0 against Boston; 1-1 against Cleveland) while somehow falling to the worst. They’ve had losses against Sacramento, Memphis (twice), Brooklyn, Utah and New Orleans. They’re 0-3 against Denver.
The trade deadline pickup of 26-year-old guard Ayo Dosunmu has paid dividends, as Minnesota has won five of six games since he arrived from Chicago (he’s averaging 11.5 points, 2.8 assists and 26.8 minutes thus far). It wasn’t quite as splashy as the Kevin Durant deal they tried to pull off last summer or the Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster they would have loved to do at the deadline, but it’s a quality addition nonetheless.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 22-12
Net rating: 5.5 (sixth)
Offensive rating: 118.6 (second)
Defensive rating: 113.1 (12th)
Biggest question mark: James Harden
Because Cleveland made the most potentially impactful deal at the deadline, swapping Darius Garland for James Harden with the Clippers, this discussion about its championship legitimacy — or lack thereof — comes with a much more narrow focus. In essence, the information above is only so relevant now that they added an all-time great whose long history of playoff shortcomings has been so well chronicled.
But in the seven games in which Harden has played — six of which the Cavs won — it’s not hard to see why general manager Koby Altman made this move. Garland’s availability was a major issue, as was his lack of size that left them so vulnerable on the defensive end. And with Donovan Mitchell’s extension talks looming so large this summer, the time was now to send a clear message that they’re serious about finding a way to the top.
As our Joe Vardon wrote on Thursday, big man Jarrett Allen had already been emerging as a force even before Harden arrived. The recent absence of Evan Mobley (eight games missed with a calf strain) appears to have inspired that silver lining, and Harden’s style should only elevate both of them going forward. He’s averaging 18.2 points, eight assists and five rebounds since coming to Cleveland, though a right thumb fracture kept him out of Wednesday’s loss to Milwaukee. It was initially reported that Harden planned on playing through the injury, so it remains to be seen how much of a setback this might be.
New York Knicks
Record: 20-15
Net rating: 3.2 (ninth)
Offensive rating: 115.7 (tied for ninth)
Defensive rating: 112.4 (10th)
Biggest question mark: Karl-Anthony Towns
Much like the Timberwolves, the Knicks — as our Fred Katz so expertly wrote this week — are as inconsistent as any top-tier team in the Association. Yet while Fred made a compelling case that this weakness is shared, with detailed insight about everyone from Jalen Brunson to Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and all the rest, it’s hard to see past the elephant in the room when it comes to Towns.
He’s either going to be comfortable and dominant in the kind of way that he was last season, when they made that East finals run under coach Tom Thibodeau during Towns’ career year. Or … he’ll continue to struggle to be his best self in new coach Mike Brown’s system, and the Knicks will fall short as a result. In terms of actual title contention, it’s really hard to see the Knicks getting this job done unless Towns is nothing short of special all the way through.
This is yet another team that’s being given leeway because of what it did before, but this body of work in the past two months is nothing to write home about. What’s more, that 0-3 record against Detroit poses a major problem going forward. Not to mention the Tuesday loss against Cleveland. And with owner James Dolan having made it clear in early January that he sees this team through a title-or-bust prism — “We should win the finals, right?” he had said — the pressure is most certainly on for all involved.
Cutting room floor
• If the Houston Rockets go on to throw a parade, I’ll be the first one to offer a mea culpa. But truth be told, I’m just not seeing it.
As I wrote recently, the loss of big man Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury remains one of the most underrated absences in all the NBA. Even with Houston’s comeback win Thursday over Orlando — its sixth in the last eight games — the Rockets are still just ninth in net rating since the big man went down (with a 13-6 record). The offense, which relied so heavily on the second chances that Adams would create, is somehow ranked just 16th in that span.
The Kevin Durant-Alperen Şengün pairing has its obvious issues in terms of compatibility. The preseason loss of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) is proving more devastating by the month. And unlike so many other teams that are waiting for key players to return, there aren’t reinforcements coming for these Rockets.
They’re a good team, with a record of 21-15 since that Dec. 13 mark, but likely not good enough.
• The Charlotte Hornets deserve a mention for creating all this late-season … buzz. But even with their 22-13 record since Dec. 13, they’ll be pitted against the East elite if they manage to make it out of the Play-In Tournament that looks so likely (they’re currently in 10th, 4 1/2 games back of the sixth spot).
Still, this stretch in which they’ve won 13 of 16 games has made them the League Pass darlings of the second half. And they’ve done it, mostly, with the starting lineup of Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Moussa Diabate that remains the most effective in the entire league (32.1 net rating in 176 minutes).
The irony of it all? The second-best five-man group is OKC’s lineup of Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace (25.3 net rating in 117 minutes). So maybe, given the elite nature of that company, the Hornets are heading toward a title after all.
By Sam Amick, via The Athletic