By NBA insiders, 2026-08-27 19:00:00
本周的夏季预测继续推进，聚焦各支球队在2026-27赛季前面临的最大场上悬念。
哪些球队会进步，哪些会下滑？谁将成为第一个被卷入交易流言的超级巨星，哪些球队又将加入人才争夺战？在九个赛季之后，我们终于能看到一支球队成功卫冕吗？
我们的NBA内幕专家团队通过最新一期的NBA夏季预测回答了这些问题及更多疑问，包括纽约尼克斯本赛季采取行动的可能性、勒布朗·詹姆斯在费城首个赛季的场均得分，以及德雷蒙德·格林是否会在交易截止日前改换门庭。
以下是预测结果：
注：我们的2026-27赛季NBA夏季预测将于周五继续，届时将带来联盟内幕人士对本赛季预测结果的反应。
惊喜球队：哪些球队将实现重大飞跃？
并列第1. 印第安纳步行者： 46分
并列第1. 犹他爵士： 46分
3. 华盛顿奇才： 20分
并列第4. 达拉斯独行侠： 15分
并列第4. 费城76人： 15分
6. 亚特兰大老鹰： 14分
并列第7. 夏洛特黄蜂： 10分
并列第7. 波特兰开拓者： 10分
这份榜单上的前三支球队都怀揣着在乐透区“摆烂大战”后实现巨大飞跃的雄心。
排名垫底为奇才和爵士带来了丰厚回报——他们分别拿下了前两顺位选秀权，选中了AJ·迪班萨和达伦·彼得森——但步行者就没那么幸运了，他们的选秀权是前四顺位保护的，最终以第五顺位被送到了快船。这个选秀权是伊维察·祖巴茨交易的一部分，这笔赛季中期的交易与爵士换来小贾伦·杰克逊、奇才换来特雷·杨和安东尼·戴维斯的交易有很多相似之处。每笔交易中，这些球队都补充了经过验证的高端首发球员，他们在2025-26赛季剩余大部分或全部时间缺阵后，有望成为球队大翻身的关键因素。
76人是这个群体中唯一希望证明我们专家组判断有误的球队，因为费城在新任篮球运营总裁迈克·甘西的操作下期望值飙升——他成功将保罗·乔治的溢价合同换成全明星锋线杰伦·布朗，同时赢得了勒布朗·詹姆斯争夺战，以老将底薪签下了历史得分王。但这可不是梦幻篮球。教练尼克·纳斯和76人必须迅速解决阵容搭配和化学反应问题，因为首发阵容中有四位具备全明星级别实力的球权主导型球星，外加潜力新星VJ·埃奇库姆。—— 蒂姆·麦克马洪
令人失望的球队：本赛季哪支球队将出现下滑？
1. 洛杉矶湖人： 32分
2. 底特律活塞： 27分
3. 金州勇士： 26分
4. 迈阿密热火： 22分
5. 波士顿凯尔特人： 17分
在NBA中，没有比“高期望值”加上“常年争冠的球队标准”更能制造失望的公式了。
这正是湖人和热火下赛季面临的局面——洛杉矶围绕27岁的超级巨星卢卡·东契奇专门打造阵容，而迈阿密则迎来了球队的下一位门面人物：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博。如果湖人无法在最近两个50胜赛季的基础上更进一步，球队处理勒布朗·詹姆斯离队的方式将再次受到质疑。如果热火无法在季后赛有所作为，那么与密尔沃基雄鹿交易中送出的三个首轮选秀权和凯尔·韦尔等年轻天赋将被重新审视。
其他三支获得选票的球队只面临上述两个因素中的一个。活塞刚刚打出了球队20年来首个60胜赛季，最终在主场抢七大战中于第二轮出局。人们期待他们在凯德·坎宁安进入巅峰期时抓住机会。与此同时，勇士休赛期动作寥寥，如果球队表现不再像斯蒂芬·库里过去所参与的王朝球队那样，沮丧的球迷群体可能会发出更大的不满声。—— 戴夫·麦克梅纳明
以下球员中，下一个提出交易申请的是……？
1. 安东尼·戴维斯： 10分
2. 凯里·欧文： 4分
并列第3. 凯文·杜兰特： 3分
并列第3. 锡安·威廉姆森： 3分
并列第5. 詹姆斯·哈登： 2分
并列第5. 杰伦·布朗： 2分
戴维斯和奇才基本上是以“试用期”模式开启新赛季的。这与球队和特雷·杨的合作形成了鲜明对比——杨是华盛顿在上赛季交易截止日前引进的另一位前全明星球员，并在今年夏天签下了一份为期四年、总额2.13亿美元的续约合同，这在联盟中引起了广泛关注。
戴维斯和他的经纪人、Klutch Sports首席执行官里奇·保罗对于获得顶薪（或接近顶薪）续约合同的渴望毫不掩饰。这也是达拉斯在将戴维斯作为卢卡·东契奇交易主要回报仅仅一年后就决定将其交易出去的驱动因素，同时也使得为他寻找下家变得困难。
如果华盛顿不愿意满足戴维斯的薪资要求，他为什么要安心留下来帮助奇才终结长达六年的季后赛荒呢？
欧文在作为独行侠队友与戴维斯短暂合作期间只一起打了一场比赛，他没有任何迹象表明想要离开达拉斯。独行侠已经拒绝了多支球队关于欧文可用性的询价，而欧文正准备从上赛季整季缺阵的膝伤中复出。
但联盟各队的管理层预计，双方中的一方或双方都可能认为分道扬镳符合各自的最佳利益，因为人们对34岁的欧文能否与球队围绕少年天才库珀·弗拉格建队的长期规划兼容存有疑问。
欧文和戴维斯一样，合同中都包含2027-28赛季的球员选项。杜兰特也是如此，当太阳在2024-25赛季后决定将其摆上交易货架时，休斯顿是他的首选目的地，他签下了一份远低于顶薪的续约合同，为火箭提供了薪资灵活性。—— 麦克马洪
我们会连续第九个赛季迎来不同的总冠军吗？
1. 会： 19分
2. 不会： 5分
NBA中一些最好的球队有机会终结连续八个赛季产生八支不同冠军球队的历史纪录，包括最近三年的冠军纽约、俄克拉荷马城和波士顿，他们都有机会在2026-27赛季再夺一冠。
但我们的专家组认为，下赛季更有可能出现第九支不同的冠军球队。正如ESPN的本·戈利弗最近概述的那样，最有可能做到这一点的领先候选球队包括：提前进入2026年总决赛的圣安东尼奥马刺；拥有勒布朗·詹姆斯和杰伦·布朗增添星味的费城76人；以及在过去两年内至少打入过分区决赛的明尼苏达森林狼、印第安纳步行者和克利夫兰骑士。底特律、休斯顿、迈阿密和亚特兰大也有望在明年春天发起冲击。—— 扎克·克拉姆
哪支球队最有可能在交易截止日前做出大动作？
1. 金州勇士： 9分
2. 底特律活塞： 4分
并列第3. 波士顿凯尔特人： 3分
并列第3. 休斯顿火箭： 3分
并列第5. 丹佛掘金： 1分
并列第5. 孟菲斯灰熊： 1分
并列第5. 迈阿密热火： 1分
并列第5. 萨克拉门托国王： 1分
并列第5. 多伦多猛龙： 1分
在勇士经历了过去14年中仅有的第二个失利赛季后，球队既没有通过交易也没有通过自由球员市场做出重大补强，湾区球迷的焦虑情绪正在上升。如今扬尼斯·阿德托昆博和勒布朗·詹姆斯都已另投他处，球队有什么计划给将在三月份年满39岁的斯蒂芬·库里再一次冲击季后赛的机会？
两年前面临类似停滞时，金州在赛季中期做出了引进吉米·巴特勒的重磅交易，推动球队打入了季后赛第二轮。勇士在二月份截止日前有几个选择：他们可以尝试将巴特勒的到期合同和资产用于换取一名球星，或者围绕克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯构建一笔更适中的交易。有一点很明确：如果勇士执行副总裁小迈克·邓利维不做些有分量的事情，这很可能又是一个令人沮丧的赛季。—— 戈利弗
勒布朗·詹姆斯场均得分会超过还是低于20分？
1. 低于20分： 18分
2. 高于20分： 5分
在2021-22赛季场均得到30.3分——这是他职业生涯第二高的场均得分，当时他37岁——之后，詹姆斯的场均得分已经连续四年下降。其中最大的一次下滑出现在上赛季，詹姆斯场均得分从24.4分降至20.9分，下降了3.5分，追平了他职业生涯的最大跌幅。与此同时，他上赛季的使用率创下了职业生涯新低的27%。
现在他又老了一岁，而且加盟了一支拥有更多需要球权的球星的新球队，因此有理由预期詹姆斯在42岁的赛季中数据会进一步下滑。泰瑞斯·马克西、杰伦·布朗和乔尔·恩比德上赛季的场均得分和使用率都高于詹姆斯。—— 克拉姆
德雷蒙德·格林会打完整个赛季留在勇士吗？
1. 会： 21分
2. 不会： 3分
NBA中效力同一支球队时间最长的两名球员是库里——他将进入在勇士的第18个赛季——以及格林，他签下了一份一年2770万美元的合同回归，迎来自己的第15个赛季。虽然他们辉煌的合作不会永远持续下去，但格林今年夏天选择跳出合同以帮助金州在自由球员市场上运作，这表明球队和球员之间仍然保持着紧密的一致。
格林在36岁时仍然是一名高水平的防守者，但目前尚不清楚交易追求者是否仍将他视为能够帮助争冠球队更进一步的球员。他不稳定的外线投射长期以来一直要求球队为他配备合适的人选，而他的得分效率在过去两个赛季中大幅下滑。
格林作为勇士标志性人物和中流砥柱的价值，很可能超过球队通过交易他所能获得的回报，部分原因在于拥有他这种技术特点和薪资水平的球员只对有意争冠的球队有意义。然而，如果勇士在等待巴特勒从ACL伤病中复出的过程中开局不利，这种局面理论上可能会发生变化。—— 戈利弗
2026-27赛季会是卢卡·东契奇在洛杉矶湖人的最后一个赛季吗？
1. 不是： 20分
2. 是： 4分
东契奇的合同在本赛季之后还有两年（包括2028-29赛季5780万美元的球员选项）。从湖人篮球运营总裁兼总经理罗勃·佩林卡与达拉斯独行侠完成交易得到东契奇的那一刻起，湖人显然已经全力支持这位27岁的球星。
即使湖人的所有权即将从马克·沃尔特转手给乔什·库什纳和鲍勃·艾格，也很难想象球队会突然改变方向，不再以东契奇为核心继续建队。
同样难以想象的是，刚刚自掏腰包六位数在斯洛文尼亚为所有队友举办迷你训练营和增进情谊的团建活动的东契奇，会在明年夏天突然决定结束与湖人的合作。—— 麦克梅纳明
纽约尼克斯在开局缓慢后，会在交易截止日前做出重大操作吗？
1. 不会： 20分
2. 会： 3分
尼克斯老板詹姆斯·多兰去年相当坦率地表示，球队现有的阵容就是不会寻求大交易的阵容，而且不会在夏天突破第二土豪线。考虑到尼克斯距离那条敏感线仍然很近，再加上卡尔-安东尼·唐斯的续约问题尚未解决，很难想象他们会为了调整一支刚刚在季后赛中一路过关斩将夺冠的球队而做出重大操作。
他们在截止日前的大动作是引进何塞·阿尔瓦拉多来补强替补控卫时间，除非出现什么剧烈变化，否则很可能也就是这种级别的操作。感觉这支球队将获得卫冕的机会，而在当今这个时代卫冕并不常见。此外，每一笔财务决策都必须考虑到杰伦·布伦森可能续约的现实——如果他提前签约，可以签下四年2.54亿美元的合同。如果他等到2028年休赛期，这个数字将跃升至五年3.71亿美元。—— 文森特·古德威尔
本赛季哪位加盟新球队的球员将产生最大影响？
1. 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博： 15分
2. 科怀·伦纳德： 5分
并列第3. 勒布朗·詹姆斯： 2分
并列第3. 杰伦·布朗： 2分
31岁的阿德托昆博是今年夏天换队的球员中成就最高的当打之年超级巨星。这位两届MVP和2021年总冠军得主在密尔沃基雄鹿的13年生涯因一连串季后赛失望和伤病而崩塌后，将在热火获得亟需的全新开始。由于休赛期其他操作乏善可陈，迈阿密将被迫严重依赖阿德托昆博。热火交易掉了包括泰勒·希罗在内的多名轮换球员来换取阿德托昆博，并且在自由球员市场上失去了诺曼·鲍威尔。
目前，他们缺乏一名高水平的首发控卫和足够的投射能力来支持他们的新门面球员。尽管存在这些阵容挑战，阿德托昆博应该有很强的动力让自己的职业生涯在密尔沃基停滞之后重回正轨。这位十届全明星球员自2022年以来就再也没有突破过季后赛首轮，而他饱受伤病困扰的2025-26赛季是他自2018年以来首次未能进入MVP投票前五名。—— 戈利弗
哪位圣安东尼奥马刺球员将迎来爆发赛季？
1. 迪伦·哈珀： 19分
2. 卡特·布莱恩特： 3分
3. 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔： 2分
很难排除布莱恩特，因为他无疑是这三人中运动能力最强的——甚至可能是全队最强的——作为一支充满年轻天赋的球队中的攻防一体锋线，他有着光明的未来。但还没到布莱恩特爆发的时候。他将继续成长，在第二年承担更重要的角色。
与此同时，哈珀有望在爆发的新秀赛季基础上更进一步。作为最佳新秀阵容一阵成员，哈珀上赛季场均得到11.8分、3.4个篮板和3.9次助攻，而在马刺的总决赛之旅中，他的数据提升到了14.1分和5.6个篮板。这里需要指出的是，哈珀上赛季开局缓慢，因为小腿伤势让他缺席了10场比赛。到了一月份，他又撞上了所谓的“新秀墙”。一年的经验将帮助哈珀更好地应对二年级赛季可能遇到的陷阱。这位榜眼秀新秀赛季场均出战22.6分钟，但随着哈珀预计承担更多责任，这个数字本赛季应该会增长。
已经赢得NBA年度最佳新秀的卡斯尔，在第二年作为射手取得了进步，得分、篮板和助攻数据都有所提升。如果卡斯尔能减少失误，并且像上赛季一样持续进步，考虑到他已经位列同位置球员中的顶尖行列，他最终也有可能在这里打出爆发赛季。—— 迈克尔·C·莱特
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Which teams will surprise or disappoint, plus biggest questions
NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Which teams will surprise or disappoint, plus biggest questions
Our Summer Forecast rolls on this week with the biggest on-court questions facing teams heading into the 2026-27 season.
Which teams will improve and which will decline? Who will be the first superstar considered for a trade, and which teams will be in the hunt for talent? And will we finally get a repeat champion after nine seasons?
Our NBA insiders tackled these questions and more with our latest update to the NBA Summer Forecast, including the New York Knicks’ chances at making a move this season, how many points LeBron James will score per game in his first season in Philadelphia and if Draymond Green will end up somewhere else by the trade deadline.
Here are the results:
Note: Our 2026-27 NBA Summer Forecast continues Friday with reaction from league insiders on this season’s forecast results.
Surprise teams: Which teams will make a major leap?
T-1. Indiana Pacers: 46 points
T-1. Utah Jazz: 46 points
3. Washington Wizards: 20 points
T-4. Dallas Mavericks: 15 points
T-4. Philadelphia 76ers: 15 points
6. Atlanta Hawks: 14 points
T-7. Charlotte Hornets: 10 points
T-7. Portland Trail Blazers: 10 points
The top three teams on this list have ambitions of making a massive leap after participating in a pillow fight for lottery positioning.
Finishing at the bottom of the standings paid dividends for the Wizards and Jazz – who landed the top two picks and AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, respectively – but not for the Pacers, whose pick was top-four-protected and went to the Clippers as the No. 5 selection. That pick was part of the Ivica Zubac trade, a midseason acquisition that had a lot in common with the Jazz’s trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Wizards’ deals for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. In each instance, the teams added proven high-end starters who could be major factors in big turnarounds after sitting most or all of the remainder of the 2025-26 season.
The 76ers are the one team in this group that hopes to prove our panel wrong, as expectations have soared in Philadelphia after new president of basketball operations Mike Gansey managed to swap Paul George’s bloated contract for All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown while winning the LeBron James sweepstakes, signing the all-time leading scorer on a veterans minimum salary. But this isn’t fantasy basketball. Coach Nick Nurse and the Sixers have to figure out fit and chemistry on the fly with a starting lineup that features four ball-dominant stars with All-NBA credentials and potential star VJ Edgecombe. – Tim MacMahon
Disappointing teams: Which team will take a tumble this season?
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points
2. Detroit Pistons: 27 points
3. Golden State Warriors: 26 points
4. Miami Heat: 22 points
5. Boston Celtics: 17 points
There’s no more potent formula for disappointment in the NBA than the weight of expectations combined with an organizational standard for perennial championship contention.
That’s the scenario facing the Lakers and Heat next season, with L.A. building out its team to fit specifically around 27-year-old superstar Luka Doncic and Miami landing its next face of the franchise: Giannis Antetokounmpo. If L.A. can’t build on its last two 50-win seasons, the team’s handling of LeBron James’ exit will be called into question all over again. And if the Heat can’t make a playoff run, the three first-round picks and young talent like Kel’el Ware included in the deal with the Milwaukee Bucks will be reexamined.
The other three teams receiving votes are dealing with only one of the two aforementioned elements. The Pistons are coming off the team’s first 60-win season in 20 years, which ended with a Game 7 second-round exit on their home floor. They’ll be expected to capitalize while Cade Cunningham enters into his prime. Meanwhile, a quiet offseason of activity by the Warriors could mean the volume will be turned up by a frustrated fanbase if the product doesn’t resemble the dynastic teams that Stephen Curry has been a part of in the past. – Dave McMenamin
Between these players, the next to request a trade will be …?
1. Anthony Davis: 10 points
2. Kyrie Irving: four points
T-3. Kevin Durant: three points
T-3. Zion Williamson: three points
T-5. James Harden: two points
T-5. Jaylen Brown: two points
Davis and the Wizards are essentially opening the season on a trial period. That’s quite a stark contrast to the franchise’s partnership with Trae Young, the other former All-Star that Washington acquired before last season’s trade deadline – and signed to a four-year, $213 million extension this summer that raised eyebrows around the league.
Davis and his agent, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, haven’t been coy about their desire for a maximum (or close to it) contract extension. That was a driving factor in Dallas’ decision to trade Davis a year after he was the headliner in the return of the Luka Doncic deal, and it made finding a market for him difficult.
If Washington isn’t willing to pay Davis what he wants, why would he be satisfied to stick around and attempt to help the Wizards snap a six-year playoff drought?
Irving, who played only one game alongside Davis during their short stint together as Mavericks teammates, has given no indication of a desire to leave Dallas. The Mavs have declined to engage teams that have inquired about his availability as Irving prepares to return from the knee injury that sidelined him all of last season.
But front offices across the league anticipate that one or both parties could decide it’s in their best interest to part ways, wondering about the long-term fit of the 34-year-old Irving as the Mavs prioritize building around teenage prodigy Cooper Flagg.
Irving, like Davis, has a contract with a player option for the 2027-28 season. So does Durant, who had Houston as his preferred destination when the Suns decided to make him available via trade after the 2024-25 season and signed an extension well south of his max to give the Rockets financial flexibility. – MacMahon
Will we get a different champion for the ninth straight season?
1. Yes: 19 points
2. No: five points
Some of the best teams in the NBA have an opportunity to snap the record streak of eight different champions in as many seasons, including the last three winners in New York, Oklahoma City and Boston, who could each win another title in 2026-27.
But our panel thinks it far more likely that a ninth distinct winner will emerge next season. As ESPN’s Ben Golliver outlined recently, the leading candidates to do so are the San Antonio Spurs, who reached the 2026 Finals ahead of schedule; the Philadelphia 76ers, with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown adding star power; and the Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers, who have all reached the conference finals or better within the last two years. Detroit, Houston, Miami and Atlanta are also contenders to make a run next spring. – Zach Kram
Which team is most likely to make a big move before the trade deadline?
1. Golden State Warriors: nine points
2. Detroit Pistons: four points
T-3. Boston Celtics : three points
T-3. Houston Rockets: three points
T-5. Denver Nuggets: one point
T-5. Memphis Grizzlies: one point
T-5. Miami Heat: one point
T-5. Sacramento Kings: one point
T-5. Toronto Raptors: one point
The angst level is rising among Bay Area fans after the Warriors made no major additions via trade or free agency after just their second losing season in the past 14 years. Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James have headed elsewhere, what’s the plan to give Stephen Curry, who will turn 39 in March, another shot at the playoffs?
When facing similar stagnation two seasons ago, Golden State made a splashy midseason deal for Jimmy Butler that propelled a run to the second round of the playoffs. The Warriors will have a few options before the deadline in February: They could try to flip Butler’s expiring contract and assets for a star or construct a more modest deal around Kristaps Porzingis. This much is clear: It will likely be another frustrating campaign if Warriors executive Mike Dunleavy Jr. doesn’t do something of consequence. – Golliver
Will LeBron James average more or less than 20 points per game?
1. Less than 20: 18 points
2. More than 20: five points
After averaging 30.3 points per game in the 2021-22 season – the second-best mark of his career, at age 37 – James’ scoring average has dropped four years in a row. And the biggest drop of the bunch came last season, when James lost 3.5 points per game, from 24.4 to 20.9, tied for his career worst. At the same time, he posted a career-low 27% usage rate last season.
Now a year older and playing for a new team with even more stars who need the ball, it’s reasonable to expect a further decline for James in his age-42 campaign. Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid all averaged more points, and a higher usage rate, than James last year. – Kram
Will Draymond Green finish out the season on the Warriors?
1. Yes: 21 points
2. No: three points
The NBA’s two longest-tenured players with one team are Curry, who is entering his 18th season with the Warriors, and Green, who signed a one-year, $27.7 million deal to return for his 15th campaign. While their illustrious partnership won’t last forever, Green’s willingness to opt out this summer to aid Golden State’s free agency pursuits suggests a close alignment still exists between team and player.
Green remains a high-level defender at age 36, but it’s unclear whether trade suitors still view him as a player capable of putting a championship hopeful over the top. His shaky outside shooting has long required surrounding him with the right personnel, and his scoring efficiency has dipped dramatically over the last two seasons.
Green’s value to Golden State as an icon and mainstay likely exceeds what the team could acquire by trading him, in part because a player with his skill set and salary only makes sense for aspiring contenders. However, that dynamic could theoretically change if the Warriors stumble out of the gate while waiting for Butler’s return from an ACL injury. – Golliver
Will the 2026-27 season be Luka Doncic’s last with the Los Angeles Lakers?
1. No: 20 points
2. Yes: four points
Doncic has two years remaining on his contract beyond this season (including a player option for $57.8 million in 2028-29). The Lakers have clearly given the 27-year-old star their full backing from the moment L.A.'s president of basketball operations and general manager, Rob Pelinka, pulled off the trade with the Dallas Mavericks to land Doncic.
Even with the Lakers’ ownership about to change hands from Mark Walter to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger, it’s hard to imagine the organization suddenly changing directions and not continuing to build with Doncic as the center of its universe.
It’s similarly unfathomable to believe that Doncic, who just footed a six-figure bill to host all of his teammates for a minicamp and camaraderie-growing retreat in Slovenia, would suddenly decide that he is done with the Lakers next summer. – McMenamin
Will the New York Knicks make major moves before the trade deadline after a slow start?
1. No: 20 points
2. Yes: three points
Knicks owner James Dolan was pretty transparent last year about the team that was built being the one that wouldn’t be looking for a big move, as well as not going into the second apron over the summer. Considering how close the Knicks still will be to that precious territory, along with the matter of Karl-Anthony Towns’ extension yet to be settled, it’s hard to envision them making a big-time move to tinker with a team that just ran through the playoffs to win a title.
Their big move before the deadline was adding Jose Alvarado to shore up backup point guard minutes, and it would likely be a move in that vein, unless something drastic comes about. It feels like this team will be given the chance to go for a repeat in an era where that doesn’t happen very often. Also, every financial decision must be made with the reality of Jalen Brunson’s possible extension – if he signs early, he can sign for four years and $254 million. If he waits, that jumps to five years and $371 million in the 2028 offseason. – Vincent Goodwill
Which player on a new team will have the biggest impact this season?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15 points
2. Kawhi Leonard: five points
T-3. LeBron James: two points
T-3. Jaylen Brown: two points
Antetokounmpo, 31, was the most accomplished prime-age superstar who changed teams this summer. The two-time MVP and 2021 champion will get a much-needed fresh start with the Heat after his 13-year run with the Milwaukee Bucks imploded following a string of playoff disappointments and injuries. Miami will be forced to lean heavily on Antetokounmpo because of its otherwise underwhelming summer. The Heat traded several rotation players, including Tyler Herro, to acquire Antetokounmpo, and they lost Norman Powell in free agency.
At present, they lack a high-level lead guard and sufficient shooting to support their new franchise player. Despite those roster challenges, Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated to get his career back on track after it stalled in Milwaukee. The 10-time All-Star hasn’t advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs since 2022, and his injury-plagued 2025-26 campaign was the first time he didn’t finish in the top five of MVP voting since 2018. – Golliver
Which San Antonio Spurs player will have a breakout season?
1. Dylan Harper: 19 points
2. Carter Bryant: three points
3. Stephon Castle: two points
It’s difficult to count out Bryant here because he’s hands down the most athletic of these three – and potentially the entire team – and has a bright future ahead as a two-way wing on a squad teeming with young talent. But it’s not quite Bryant’s time. He’ll continue to develop and take on a more prominent role in Year 2.
Harper, meanwhile, is expected to expand on his breakout rookie campaign. An All-Rookie first-teamer, Harper averaged 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists last season, only to crank up the production during San Antonio’s NBA Finals run to 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds. It’s important to note here that Harper started last season slowly because of a calf injury that kept him out for 10 games. By January he had hit the proverbial rookie wall. A year of experience will help Harper better navigate the potential pitfalls in his sophomore year. The No. 2 pick averaged 22.6 minutes as a rookie, but that number should grow this season with Harper expected to take on more responsibilities.
Having already won NBA Rookie of the Year, Castle made strides as a shooter during his second year and ramped up scoring, rebounding and assists. If Castle cuts down the turnovers and improves similarly to last season, he could ultimately end up churning out the breakout season here, considering he’s already ranked among the upper echelon at his position. – Michael C. Wright
By NBA insiders, via ESPN