By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-08 17:53:25
在这轮对阵纽约尼克斯队的NBA总决赛开始之前，有一件小事就一直萦绕在我的脑海中：尼克斯在常规赛中对付圣安东尼奥马刺队的成功秘诀，与马刺最初一路杀进总决赛的防守策略并不契合——那就是包夹对方明星球员，逼迫其角色球员来击败你。
这一招在第二轮对阵明尼苏达森林狼队时效果很好，原因有几点：一是安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 有时不太愿意传球，总想自己当英雄；但最主要的原因还是他最好的传球目标唐特·迪温琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 因跟腱断裂赛季报销。而在对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆队时，效果就有些毁誉参半了，这很大程度上是因为亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 在其中几场比赛中在外线彻底投疯了。（如果他在大学时也能投出这种表现，也许德克萨斯A&M大学在男子篮球赛上的最高成就就不止是几次打进甜蜜16强了。）
然而，马刺之所以能在西部决赛2-3落后的情况下实现逆转，正是因为他们的调整能力。具体来说，他们将防守策略从“不惜一切代价限制谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)”转变为“死守各自对位的角色球员，让他单打独斗来击败我们”。结果是他在抢七大战中砍下高分，但由于缺乏足够的帮手，他的努力付诸东流，马刺随着比赛的进行逐渐拉开比分。
这就说回了尼克斯。在系列赛开始前，我有一种隐隐的担忧，马刺至少会以同样的策略开局：限制杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，逼迫其他人来击败你。他们基本实现了前半部分（关键时刻除外），布伦森的命中率被限制在34%以下。但问题在于，与之前的对手不同，尼克斯拥有足够的外线射手，一旦你漏掉他们，他们就会让你付出代价，而到目前为止，他们确实做到了这一点。
在常规赛中，尼克斯前九名轮换球员中有七人场均至少出手3.5次三分，且命中率超过36.8%。仅有的两个没达到这一标准的球员——穆罕默德·迪亚瓦拉 (Mohamed Diawara) 和泰勒·科莱克 (Tyler Kolek)——在这轮系列赛中甚至还没上过场。这意味着尼克斯在场上经常同时拥有五名水准之上的射手。不在上述高命中率名单中但获得了出场时间的尼克斯球员只有三位：一位是米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)——你依然必须在内线死守他；另外两位则是马刺球迷深知其威力的何塞·阿尔瓦拉多 (Jose Alvarado) 和本土小伙乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson)，他们一旦在替补席上找到手感，绝对是致命的杀手。
尽管尼克斯在这轮系列赛中的外线手感并非最佳（随着系列赛移师他们主场，这一点令人担忧），但他们总能在关键时刻投中三分。就像我脑海中挥之不去的画面一样——在常规赛尼克斯于麦迪逊广场花园大胜马刺的那场比赛中，米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 投中了五个空位三分。在第二场比赛中，我也看到了类似的场景：马刺防守球员为了包夹或下手掏球骚扰布伦森，在底角漏掉了自己的防守人，哪怕只是转瞬之间，布伦森也能在防守球员补防到位前立刻找到空位射手。正如迈克·布林 (Mike Breen) 会说的那样：Bang！
我不知道这是教练组迄今为止制定的防守策略，还是球员们出现了短暂但代价高昂的防守漏人。但无论原因是什么，双方都需要做出调整，重新死守外线射手，尤其是左侧底角。看看尼克斯在这轮系列赛中的投篮分布图就知道了：
如果这张图还不够强烈地表明“继续让布伦森在中距离出手，但别再漏掉底角射手”，那我就不知道什么才能表明了。（顺便提一句，马刺在左侧底角同样是绿色的，但样本量较小，仅为9投4中，而除了合理冲撞区内同样是55投35中之外，马刺在其他区域的投篮热区全是红色。你可以在此处查看所有的统计数据和图表。）
当然，除了防守某一个特定区域的投篮外，马刺还有很多可以做得更好的地方。实际上，在前两场比赛的最后两分钟里，他们都曾处于领先，但随后都在关键时刻崩盘，第二场比赛的失利方式尤其令人痛苦（但它依然无法与2013年的总决赛第六场相比——我觉得没有任何比赛能超越那场痛楚），因此在决定胜负的生死关头做出更明智的决策至关重要。两场比赛因为罚球失准累计丢掉了12分（第二场丢了7分），这也是一件让他们回去之后懊悔不已的事情。（说到这里，在裁判哨口偏向己方的情况下还输掉两场比赛，代价同样沉重，因为这种好运还能维持多久？）
比赛中会发生许多无人能预测或控制的意外。但可以控制的是策略和比赛计划，马刺的教练组和球员在整个季后赛中已经证明了他们具备学习和调整的能力。在上一轮系列赛中，他们做出了完全相同的调整——死守射手并单防对方明星球员，希望在第三场比赛开始前，他们的计划依然是故技重施。布伦森可能比吉尔杰斯-亚历山大更容易开启“暴走”模式——他以前曾对阵马刺砍下过60分——但你猜怎么着？那场比赛马刺赢了。
0-2落后绝对不是什么好玩的事，尤其是你知道自己本可以轻松打成1-1甚至2-0，而且现在面临着必须在5场比赛中赢下4场（包括两个客场）才能赢下系列赛的严峻考验——更不用说在如今这个打进总决赛远比马刺王朝时期更为艰难的时代去争夺总冠军了（这确实疯狂）。然而，如果说有什么积极的一面，那就是现在所有的压力都在尼克斯这边，马刺可以毫无包袱地去打球，并在不惧后果的情况下做出调整。他们以前证明过自己可以做到，现在是时候再次证明了。
尽管目前形势似乎对马刺非常不利，但FanDuel博彩公司在第三场比赛中仅将马刺列为受让1.5分的下盘。这足以说明这轮系列赛有多么势均力敌，而且这种焦灼的态势应该还会延续下去，胜负将取决于微小的细节和瞬息万变的决策。然而，只要做出正确的调整并保持良好的心态，马刺或许能够让胜利的天平重新向自己倾斜。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The one adjustment that could swing the series back to San Antonio
The one adjustment that could swing the series back to San Antonio
Before this NBA finals series against the New York Knicks even started, there was one little thing that had been gnawing at the back the of my mind, and that was what has made the Knicks successful against the Spurs in the regular season did not align well with a strategy that had gotten the Spurs to the Finals in the first place: double teaming the star and making the role players beat you.
It worked well against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round for a few reasons, one being that Anthony Edwards can at times be a reluctant passer and try to be the hero by himself, but more than anything it was because his best target, Donte DiVincenzo, was out with a ruptured Achilles. The results were a little more mixed against the Oklahoma City Thunder in large part because Alex Caruso decided to go nuclear from beyond the arc for a few games. (If he could have done that in college, maybe Texas A&M’s greatest achievement in men’s basketball would be something beyond a handful of Sweet 16 appearances.)
However, what brought the Spurs back from a 3-2 deficit in the Western Conference Finals was their ability to adjust. Specifically, they switched things up from “stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at all costs” to “stay at home on role players and make him beat us by himself”. The result was a big Game 7 performance from him, but it was for naught as he didn’t have enough help, allowing the Spurs to pull away as the game wore on.
That brings us to the Knicks. Coming into the series, I had this aching feeling the Spurs would at least start with the same approach: stop Jalen Brunson and make everyone else beat you. They’ve mostly achieved the first part (outside of crunch time) with Brunson shooting under 34%, but the problem is unlike their previous opponents, the Knicks have the shooters to punish you for leaving them open, and so far, they have done just that.
In the regular season, seven of the Knicks’ top nine rotation players hit greater than 36.8% from three on 3.5 or more attempts per game. The two that didn’t — Mohamed Diawara and Tyler Kolek — haven’t even played in this series. So that means the Knicks often have five above-average shooters on the floor at once. The only three Knicks getting minutes who aren’t on that list are Mitchell Robinson, whom you still have to stay home on down low, and of course Spurs fans know what killers Jose Alvarado and hometown kid Jordan Clarkson can be off then bench if they get hot.
The Knicks haven’t been at their best from three so far in this series (which is concerning as the series shifts to their home court), but they have been hitting them in timely fashion, and just like I have imagines implanted in my brain of Mikal Bridges nailing five open threes in their regular season blowout win over the Spurs in Madison Square Garden, I saw similar instances in Game 2 in particular, where a Spurs defender left his man open in the corner for a split second to double-team or swipe at Brunson, only for him to immediately find the open shooter before the defender could recover. And as Mike Breen would put it, bang.
I don’t know if this is the strategy the coaches have chosen up to this point or if the players are having momentary but costly lapses. Regardless of the reason, both parties need to make the adjustment back to staying at home on shooters, especially in that left hard corner. Just take a look at the Knicks shot chart in this series:
If this doesn’t scream “keep letting Brunson work in the midrange but stop leaving corner shooters open”, then I don’t know what does. (In case you’re wondering, the Spurs are also green in the left corner but on a smaller sample size of 4-9, otherwise they’re red everywhere except inside the restricted area, where they are a similar 35-55. You can check out all the stats and charts here.)
Of course, there are plenty more things the Spurs could do better besides defend one particular shot. They actually led in the final two minutes of both games before proceeding to blow it in crunch time, Game 2 in particularly painful fashion (but it still doesn’t beat Game 6 of 2013 — I don’t think anything ever could), so better decision making with the game on the line is paramount. Leaving a combined 12 points on the court via missed free throws (seven in game 2) is another thing they can go back and kick themselves over. (Speaking of which, blowing two games in which they had an optimal whistle is also costly, because how long will that last?)
Things happen in-game that no one can predict or control. What can be controlled is strategy and game plan, and the Spurs staff and players have shown throughout these playoffs that they can learn and adjust. They made the exact same adjustment of staying home on shooters and guarding the opposing star one-on-one last series, and hopefully the plan heading into Game 3 is to do that again. Brunson may be more capable of going nuclear than SGA — he has scored 60 points on the Spurs before — but guess what? The Spurs won that game.
There is nothing fun about being down 0-2, knowing you could just as easily be 1-1 or even 2-0, and facing the gauntlet of needing to win 4 of 5 games, including two on the road, to win a series — never mind a championship in an era when the Finals are a lot more difficult to reach than they were during the Spurs’ dynasty days (which is insane). However, if there is a silver lining, it’s that all pressure is on the Knicks now, and the Spurs can play free and make adjustments without fear of consequence. They’ve shown they can do it before, and now it’s time to do it again.
As much as everything seems stacked against the Spurs at this point, FanDuel Sportsbook only has them a 1.5 point underdog in Game 3. That’s how tight this series has been and should continue to be, coming down to minute details and split second decisions. However, with the correct adjustments and mindset, maybe the Spurs can force the pendulum to swing back their favor.
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock