By J.R. Wilco | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-03 14:00:00
阔别多年，我简直不敢相信我们迎来了我最喜欢的系列栏目的第四回合：“与敌共舞”（Fraternizing with the Enemy），在这个栏目里，我会和来自敌方另一支球队的作者讨论近况。在季后赛的前三轮中，我们经历了三轮精彩的系列赛，而现在，我们不仅登上了被称为NBA总决赛的巅峰，而且还完成了一个轮回——与马刺1999年队史首个总决赛对手纽约尼克斯队重逢。没有比拉塞尔·理查德森 (Russell Richardson) 更适合一起探讨实质问题的人了，他是SB Nation旗下尼克斯博客Posting and Toasting的总编辑。
J.R.
我不知道你怎么想，但我现在感受到了强烈的20世纪复古氛围。就好像我想像1999年那样狂欢，或者至少像那时一样看球。自尼克斯和马刺在季后赛相遇以来已经过去了27年，而现在我们来到了NBA总决赛为季中锦标赛（NBA Cup）正名的这一年。
自从圣安东尼奥在第二轮淘汰明尼苏达以来，我一直说纽约比俄克拉荷马城（OKC）更让我害怕。但在对阵雷霆的第一、第二和第七场比赛中，我比过去二十多年里的任何一场比赛都要紧张，所以我不知道按恐惧程度给球队排个先后顺序能有什么用。在对阵雷霆的系列赛之前，人们都在说两支球队自上次交手以来取得了多大的进步，但自圣安东尼奥和纽约上次交手以来，尼克斯也经历了同样幅度的提升。这让我不禁好奇，在双方都发生如此多变化的情况下，你预计这轮系列赛会打几场？
R.R.
终于见到你了，J.R.。我这个月买了三张去看威尔科合唱团（Wilco）演出的门票，所以当收到来自“Wilco”的消息时，我还以为是杰夫·特威迪 (Jeff Tweedy) 在向我征求对歌单的意见呢。
趣事一桩：我预测尼克斯五场晋级的原因并非基于篮球逻辑。几个月前，我妻子和弟妹问起要去Beak and Skiff（一个极棒的场地）看威尔科合唱团演出的事。由于日期是6月16日，我根本没意识到这可能会和尼克斯的比赛冲突。为什么？因为尼克斯已经有几十年没在6月份打过球了，而且他们本赛季的表现也并不完全符合预期。我买了票，也安排好了帮带孩子的人。现在，我陷入了困境：要么尼克斯在五场内解决战斗，要么我就得装病，这样我才能看第六场。在婚姻里，有什么能对应亚历山大 (SGA) 的假摔（flop）吗？
但如果你非要我给个准话，我的预测是：不可能的四场，不太可能的五场……尼克斯六场胜出。
你对1999年总决赛的记忆一定比我的要美好。首先，在整个系列赛期间我都是醉醺醺的，坐在贝尔马（Belmar）的酒吧高脚凳上，而我当时即将过门（且最终成为前妻）的妻子则用威士忌把我灌醉。简单来说，我的记忆是一片模糊。其次，看看那些技术统计。天哪！尼克斯在第一场只得了77分，第二场只得了67分。回想起来真疯狂，他们那个赛季场均只有86分。当然，这几乎是联盟最低的，但当时的NBA与如今的得分盛宴相比还是相去甚远。再过25年，球队场均能拿150分，而且都能去火星打表演赛了。
现在的这支马刺队在得分上毫无压力。而且在季后赛中，他们看起来比纽约在NBA杯中击败的那支马刺更具凝聚力。即便在当时，他们也绝非软柿子；尼克斯必须在第四节奋起直追，单节打出35-19才赢下比赛。当雷霆在西决中被看好时，我持怀疑态度。圣安东尼奥证明我是对的。他们确实是西部最强的球队，而且说实话，看他们打球真的太有意思了。
我迫不及待想看到这两支球队展开交锋了。我随时准备回答你的任何问题，尽管不能保证回答有多精彩（在这位博主清醒过来之前，已经死了很多脑细胞）。我很想知道，你认为眼下的这支马刺与纽约在杯赛中击败的那支马刺有什么不同？我有自己的推测（例如，一支年轻的球队在共同打了更多比赛后，开始理解彼此的节奏和风格），但你比我看得更多。
J.R.
马刺自12月16日输给尼克斯以来所经历的变化是一个很有意思的话题，因为有些变化在那之后不久就开始了，而有些变化则是在战胜俄克拉荷马城的过程中才刚刚完成。
第一个转变在于球队的进攻方式。赛季初期，进攻围绕维克托（Victor）展开，对手不惜一切代价全力防守他。有时这很奏效（赛季初对阵菲尼克斯的比赛就是很好的例子），圣安东尼奥的进攻会彻底瘫痪。即使在赢球的比赛中，马刺也会经历极长的得分荒。这种情况一直持续到全明星周末，之后文班突然展现出他已经明白，他不需要成为进攻的绝对中心，球队也能赢球。
突然之间，他不再像上赛季那样，在距离篮筐20英尺的地方要球、单打、突入重重协防并出现失误，而是开始设立掩护并顺下，而对手的防守为了阻止他接近篮筐而不得不拉开，这为马刺的投手和突破手创造了各种可以利用的空间。在这种环境下，文班随后再发起进攻，防守端很难同时防住这么多威胁，这也解释了他们从2月份一直到赛季结束所打出的那波高潮。
随后季后赛来临，这让教练组和球队学会了应对常规赛中罕见的针对性威胁。对阵雷霆的系列赛是一次高级课程，教他们如何临场制定新的进攻策略，如果他们没有通过那次考验，我们现在也就不会在这里对话了。
所以这就是我们上次交手以来的变化。在那期间有我们本学年的最后一次交手，纽约赢了，显然尼克斯与马刺之前的任何对手都不同，因为在马刺那段20多场比赛、唯一输给纽约尼克斯队的赛程中，尼克斯对马刺的限制非常成功。然后，仿佛这还不够，他们还解锁了唐斯 (KAT) 的“控球中锋”模式，并开始横扫各队。圣安东尼奥很大程度上是凭借体型和身体对抗跨过了卫冕冠军，但纽约不仅有投射，还有臂展。他们在侧翼的体型可以让马刺相形见猌，而且他们的连胜场次比雷霆在季后赛开始时打出的8比0还要长。
说了这么多，我对尼克斯最近的比赛看得不够多，还没有足够的依据来做出合理的推测。所以我有几个问题可以帮我为这轮系列赛做准备；有些关于篮球，有些关于球迷群体，还有些关于你：“控球中锋”唐斯真的有那么重要吗？换句话说，把球交到他手里是促成这波9连胜的关键举措吗？他们使用“控球中锋”唐斯的频率有多高？
R.R.
的确，和马刺一样，纽约自12月以来也取得了进步——不仅仅是通过裁掉盖尔雄·亚布塞莱 (Guerschon Yabusele)。不过，他们花了一些时间才进入状态。
“文班突然展现出他已经明白，他不需要成为进攻的绝对中心，球队也能赢球。”
你对杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 也可以这么说。
整个赛季，许多人都抱怨迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 应该更多地让布伦森打无球，原因有很多。这可以节省他的体力，并使进攻多样化。但尼克斯一直在重复使用同样的套路。
两个赛季以来，唐斯与布伦森的搭档从未达到应有的成功高度。无数场比赛开局沉闷，直到替补上场调整阵容才有所好转。通常情况下，唐斯会在第二节杰伦休息时大放异彩，并在第三节得一些分，然后让杰伦在第四节成为主角。
还有另一个抱怨：不管出于什么原因（无论他自己的选择还是教练的决定），唐斯不打低位。在锡伯杜手下也是如此，所以你可以自己得出结论。我们渐渐接受了这一点，但这让一些球迷抓狂。
无论如何，季后赛的前三场比赛延续了他们整个赛季都在尝试的相同剧本。在以1-2落后于天赋明显逊色一筹的老鹰队（每场都输了1分）之后，许多球迷开始怀疑我们的期望是不是太高了。
随后，改变发生了。“控球中锋”唐斯被释放；球队开始打得更快，利用了更多的快攻机会；得分重任由五名首发（外加神射手沙梅特）共同分担；他们的防守简直到了令人发指的窒息程度。在11连胜期间，他们解锁了前所未有的华丽篮球——他们历史性的数据也证实了这一点。
我们看到的一些具体变化包括：米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 更多地带球过半场，而哈特在抢到篮板后会立刻全速推进。这意味着对方的优秀防守球员必须在无球状态下追防杰伦，而其他四名首发则开始落位进攻——而且每个人都能投篮或冲击篮筐。
卡尔（即唐斯）是一位出色的传球手。作为轴心，他可以妙传给切入的队友，迅速将球传到角落（球从那里继续运转，直到找到空位投手），起跳完成高命中率的投篮，或者降低重心突破上篮。
因此，尼克斯通过减少对布伦森作为主要控球手的依赖，将防守篮板迅速转化为快节奏的得分，并让唐斯作为轴心运转，从而解锁了篮球的极乐境界。正如马刺学会了减少对文班的依赖一样，尼克斯对杰伦也采取了同样的方法。瞧，这两位球员对各自的球队反而变得更加有价值了。
问你几个问题。你认为马刺最让尼克斯感到意外的地方会是什么？最让你担心的软肋是什么？（你提到了体型，但你们的大多数核心球员都在6英尺5英寸以上——而文班简直就是一棵参天大树。）
J.R.
当NBA杯决赛结束时，谁能想到两支球队都会打进总决赛，原因竟然是他们的中锋开始像7英尺高的控球后卫一样发起进攻？但这确实发生了。我知道唐斯在这个角色上花的时间要多得多，但“控控文班”在对阵雷霆的第七场比赛开始时做出了重大贡献，帮助马刺建立了他们的第一个领先优势。所以我想知道我们在总决赛中会看到多少这样的场景，并且我非常期待看到媒体为一个中锋在助攻上领跑球队的系列赛而疯狂。在这个跟风成性的联盟里，看看这个想法能走多远会很有意思。
至于马刺将如何让尼克斯感到意外，我认为那绝对是迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)。这位新秀整年都打得很好，但他在季后赛中的表现一点也不像是在联盟的第一年。在马刺对阵纽约以来所做出的所有改变中，哈珀的崛起我认为是对总决赛影响最大的一个，因为他真的像同龄人中绝无仅有的存在。当他的数据没有与“魔术师”约翰逊 (Magic Johnson) 的新秀季后赛数据相媲美时，他就在创造新秀季后赛纪录。如果他没有在西决期间拉伤内收肌，他绝对无法让任何人感到意外，因为我相信那本会是一个更短的系列赛，而他本会是马刺进入总决赛的主要话题之一。即使迪伦在康复期间有3到4场表现不佳，你也可以有力地证明，没有他，圣安东尼奥就无法淘汰雷霆。
在软肋方面，对我来说完全在于纽约的体型。你说的没错，马刺有高大的后卫，但他们的前锋与联盟中大多数球队相比都偏矮。在阿奴诺比和罗宾逊面前，他们简直显得娇小。此外，圣安东尼奥喜欢用后卫或侧翼去防守对方的中锋，这样文班就可以在油漆区游走并扮演甘道夫的角色（“你休想通过！”）。如果他们在总决赛中也这样做，那将是马刺体型吃亏的另一个对位，这可能会带来篮板问题以及一系列其他问题、错位防守等等。
好了，我问你的问题是：在雷霆和马刺之间，你希望谁晋级，为什么？你是否担心过去几个季后赛中一直存在的一个问题：因休息时间过长而导致提前结束系列赛的球队状态生锈？
R.R.
库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 值得赞扬，但哈珀应该获得更多年度最佳新秀的选票。他在最关键时刻的技术和沉着冷静给我们P&T留下了深刻的印象。文班、卡斯尔和哈珀：我的朋友，你们选了三个极其优秀的新秀！
在分析了西部决赛两支球队的优缺点后，我曾认为尼克斯应该更想面对马刺。现在看来，这并不是一个高明的观点。我本以为圣安东尼奥的年轻以及在经历了残酷的三轮比赛后不断累积的疲劳，会让他们不如卫冕冠军雷霆那样强大。此外，算上常规赛和季后赛，这些年轻的马刺球员中有很多从未在没有休息的情况下打过这么多场比赛。在看到他们在客场的晋级之战中干掉雷霆后，我可能应该交出我的体育写作执照了。
现在我有点担心尼克斯休息时间太长了。如果纽约输掉第一场比赛，我不会感到惊讶。他们在过去一个月里只打了八场比赛，虽然这绝对能让他们保持新鲜感，有利于伤病恢复等，但我怀疑他们如何保持比赛状态。在NBA打40多分钟的比赛与在动感单车上骑40分钟是完全不同的。你可能还记得，在休息了九天之后，他们在对阵克利夫兰的第一场比赛初期表现得相当生锈。他们一度落后22分，之后才上演了令人惊叹、奇迹般、名垂青史的大逆转，并在加时赛中获胜。
抱歉，让我再看一遍第四节和加时赛。
呼，我回来了。看完之后需要洗个冷水澡冷静一下。……是的，所以，第七场和总决赛之间的这段休息时间对圣安东尼奥来说可能恰到好处——足够长到恢复健康并为对手做准备，又足够短到不至于失去势头——而八天的休息时间对纽约来说可能并不理想。
问你个问题：关于德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 的高位踝关节扭伤有什么消息吗？他在对阵雷霆的系列赛中似乎受到了很大的限制，但我能想象他一直在好转（请原谅我必须引用的披头士梗）。当卡斯尔担任主控后卫时，你感觉如何？我记得他在西决第一场比赛中拿到了11次助攻和11次失误的“另类双十”。
J.R.
你向“合法体育记者协会”申请的官方体育写作执照被批准了？真幸运！我想我不该感到奇怪，毕竟你住在纽约州。能报道这个半球最大的媒体市场一定很棒。与此同时，我们这些小市场的人只能凑合着用在麦片盒底部找到的体育写作执照。但这并没有阻止我把我的执照塑封起来，并骄傲地展示在我家庭办公室的工作台旁，就在我的打字机、我那本翻烂了的《美联社写作风格指南》（AP Stylebook），以及我那副旧度数的黑框眼镜旁边——在马刺输球后，我只用那副眼镜来汇聚阳光烧蚂蚁。
至于尼克斯第一场逆转获胜，反复观看那些集锦并不丢人，尤其是当你有这么长的等待时间，而你的球队在此期间无法产生新的精彩集锦时。我距离第七场比赛也才过去几天，我发现自己陷入了看一个又一个视频的无底洞，当你发信息说轮到我写了时，我不得不强行让自己抽离出来。话虽如此，尼克斯和马刺在各自的分区决赛第一场比赛中都经历了加时赛，这难道不有趣吗？这让我想知道，在接下来的两周半时间里，还有什么其他的相似之处有待发现。
为了回答你关于福克斯脚踝状况消息的问题，我需要向你介绍一下马刺的媒体环境。这不像大苹果城，那里的媒体足够强大，如果他们得不到足够完整的提问回答，就能让教练下课。在圣安东尼奥，主教练的任期除了老板的善意之外不依赖任何东西，而这种善意基本上已经终身授予了格雷格·波波维奇 (Gregg Popovich)。 （如果你不知道的话，波波维奇仍然是篮球运营总裁，这意味着他是负责聘请总经理的人。换句话说，波波指定了自己的继任者。）在这种环境下，我们得知伤病消息的时间和大家一样：在开球前一个小时十五分钟。所以，没有，除了我们自己关于他正在接受何种先进治疗的猜测之外，没有任何额外的消息。（不需要为引用披头士而道歉。我爱这支伟大的乐队。）
我对卡斯尔的看法并不特别复杂。第一年和第二年的球员并不以能够避免失误而闻名，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 也不例外。他的优秀品质如此之多且多样，以至于我乐意将失误归结为成长的代价。我记得在金州王朝初期，听过史蒂夫·科尔 (Steve Kerr) 用我从未听过教练使用过的词汇来讨论勇士队的失误。他的话大致意思是，当球移动时球队处于最佳状态，他宁愿球员在为了创造优势而传球时犯错，也不愿犯不传球的错误。这在当时听起来极具革命性，因为波波总是将失误视为生死攸关的威胁。当福克斯在场上稳定局势时，卡斯尔的失误频率会降低。雷霆系列赛初期的主要问题是福克斯的缺阵，希望这种情况不会再发生。
对于我的下一个问题，我必须回到全明星赛来做铺垫。文班和唐斯一起打球，维克托对唐斯的……不止一次防守选择感到非常不满。人们似乎对文班的肢体语言大做文章，将其解读为他在为输球责怪唐斯。这也似乎助长了关于他在高压时刻防守端缺乏专注度的名声。
所以我的问题是：这个名声是名副其实吗？他的失误形式有哪些？你是否担心他将如何应对总决赛成功所必需的那种复杂且多变的防守战术？
R.R.
啊，是的，我听说过体育记者和格雷格·波波维奇坐在阿拉莫穹顶体育馆（Alamodome）外的长椅上，一边喝着麦芽乳，一边看着风滚草滚过的传说。与此同时，在大都市里，记者们在Scores的香槟房里采访球员（据说）。唉，现在大家都太注重个人品牌了，不适合这种课外胡闹，或者至少他们没有邀请我一起去玩。
坦白说：我喜欢作为教练的波波。他是一个粗鲁、注重基本功的教头，就像锡伯杜一样，锡伯杜为奠定这次总决赛之旅的基础做出了贡献。波波 seem 既完美契合圣安东尼奥，又显得有些格格不入。得益于小市场和他的赢球纪录，他得到了比在纽约多得多的宽容度，但他也是个直言不讳的人，不在乎是否会得罪季票持有者群体。我们在镜头前看到了这个男人的一面。而像蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 这样的前球员正在帮助他从中风中康复，这一事实充分说明了他的品格（以及他们的品格）。
在伤病问题上，尼克斯也是出了名的守口如瓶。我们可能永远不会知道米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 是如何弄断手指的。如果里昂·罗斯 (Leon Rose) 及其团队在构建阵容方面没有做得如此出色，他们会因为保持沉默而被钉在耻辱柱上。我相信里昂在担任篮球运营总裁的六年里只接受过一次采访。在任何其他城市或任何其他行业，你试着这样糊弄过去看看。
在我对东部决赛第二场比赛的前瞻中，我写过类似这样的话：“萧华总裁一定在微笑。”起初，两场分区决赛在都以加时赛惊险开局时，似乎注定会成为史诗级的对决。然后骑士队迅速崩溃。虽然我们对纽约在接下来的三场比赛中横扫对手感到欣喜若狂，但并没有太多的戏剧性。
总决赛应该会是一场极其精彩的表演。如果两支球队在每场比赛中都打出15分的高潮，我不会感到惊讶，但任何一方的大胜似乎都不太可能——如果两队轮流赢球，赢一场、输一场等等。我和我的家人住在距离市区大约三个小时车程的地方，尽管我住在布鲁克林的儿子坚持认为，在总决赛期间我们离得越远越安全——也许可以躲在水牛城（Buffalo）的Airbnb里。如果尼克斯赢了，球迷们可能会把自由女神像偷走。如果他们输了，市政厅可能会被烧成平地。
关于卡斯尔的失误：我懒得去查，但迈克·布朗最近解释了为什么有些失误比其他失误更好。他的逻辑与你提到的史蒂夫·科尔的观点不谋而合。尽管如此，11次失误还是让人倒吸一口凉气。我希望卡斯尔对尼克斯也能这么大方。不过你是对的，随着福克斯的回归，卡斯尔送出球权的机会将会减少。
关于唐斯，情况是这样的。尼克斯球迷因为两种犯规而抓掉了大量的头发：卡尔偶尔的脑残犯规，以及更糟糕的，他在突破时的勾人犯规。他的队友们也不喜欢这些。当他用勾人动作再次导致进攻犯规，然后还争辩自己是受害者时，你可以看到队友们脸上血色全无。
然而，在这波11连胜期间，卡尔打得很有纪律性。我们祈祷这种情况能持续下去。但是，如果他在对阵马刺的比赛中过早陷入犯规麻烦，纽约就会遇到麻烦。为什么？米奇（指米切尔·罗宾逊）在这个季后赛中并没有真正让我们惊艳，而且声称自己正在应对心理健康问题。再加上手指骨折，他成了一个真正的未知数。阿里尔·胡克波尔蒂 (Ariel Hukporti) 是球队的第三中锋。如果你没听说过他，那是有原因的。
在分区决赛初期，克利夫兰的体型限制了“控球唐斯”。然而，纽约仍然赢得了内线之争，并非常有效地加快了节奏。当然，这个系列赛会有所不同。我们预计米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 会制定策略来限制唐斯，内线得分将变得非常艰难，而且马刺的腿脚会比骑士更有活力，但我们也确信迈克·布朗知道这一切并会做出相应的计划。尼克斯有如此多的进攻武器，一个被限制的唐斯只意味着其他球员中的一个会获得机会。
我很好奇你看到了约翰逊和波波之间有什么相同和不同之处？最后，你对这轮系列赛的预测是什么？谁会赢，打几场？
J.R.
我对米奇·约翰逊最好的描述是，他是波波的升级版。他们之间有太多的相似之处，以至于描述不同之处反而更容易。波波是出了名的反对白送对手分数。多年来，他输掉了许多比赛，因为他在领先三分时不肯犯规，从而让对手用三分球扳平比分并在加时赛中获胜。约翰逊通过以更符合我心意的方式处理比赛末段的策略，结束了我的痛苦。此外，圣安东尼奥现在的防守比波波执教末期要现代得多。
在我做出预测之前，我必须谈谈何塞·阿尔瓦拉多 (Jose Alvarado) 的情况：马刺的教练们最好训练好队员们应对他的套路，这样他就不能用他那绝妙的偷袭来创造额外的球权。此外，还有一个事实，我们还没有讨论今年注定能拿到冠军戒指的球员——杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan)。现在先提一下，这样我们能记得在系列赛结束前好好聊聊他。
现在回到系列赛：我看好马刺在6场内夺冠（是的，即使是在麦迪逊广场花园的客场），但我也可以看到他们根据局势的发展在7场或5场内获胜。首先，他们拥有前期“生锈对休息”的优势。其次，我不认为尼克斯不得不面对与马刺所克服的相同质量的对手，而对比赛水平的适应在这轮系列赛中可能会起到作用。第三，如果圣安东尼奥能让文班远离唐斯并靠近篮筐，那么他锁定内线的能力将给纽约的进攻带来巨大的阻碍。
所以就是这样了；我讨厌做预测，而你却让我做了一个。无论如何，祝愿系列赛揭幕战精彩纷呈，我们在另一端再见！
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：What a Knicks expert expects against the Spurs in the NBA Finals
What a Knicks expert expects against the Spurs in the NBA Finals
After so many years off, I can’t believe we are getting round four of my all-time favorite series: Fraternizing with the Enemy, where I discuss happenings with a writer from the enemy other team. We’ve had three great series through the first three rounds of the playoffs, and now, not only have we reached the pinnacle known as the NBA Finals, but we’ve come full circle with a rematch with the Spurs’ first ever Finals opponent from 1999: the New York Knicks. There’s no one better to get down to brass taxes with than Russell Richardson: editor-in-chief of SB Nation’s Knicks blog, Posting and Toasting.
J.R.
I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling strong 20th century vibes right now. As if I want to party like it’s 1999, or at least watch basketball like it. Twenty-seven years have passed since the Knicks and Spurs met in the playoffs and here we are in the year that the NBA Finals validates the in-season NBA Cup Tournament.
Ever since San Antonio eliminated Minnesota in the second round, I’ve been saying that New York scared me more than OKC. But during games 1, 2 & 7 against the Thunder, I was more tense than I’ve been for any game in over twenty years, so I don’t know that stack-ranking teams by induced fear will accomplish much. Before the OKC series, people were saying how much both teams had developed since they last played, but the Knicks have undergone at least the same kind of improvement since SA and NY have met. Which makes me wonder, with all of these changes on both sides, how long a series do you expect?
R.R.
Pleased to meet you finally, J.R. I have three tickets to see Wilco this month, so when a message arrived from Wilco, I assumed Jeff Tweedy was checking on my choices for the setlist.
Funny story: My reason for picking the Knicks to win in five games is not rooted in basketball logic. A few months ago, my wife and sister-in-law asked about attending a Wilco show at Beak and Skiff (an excellent venue). With a date of June 16, a potential Knicks conflict didn’t register. Why? Because it’s been decades since the Knicks last played in June, and they weren’t exactly living up to expectations this season. I bought tickets. Child care was arranged. Now, I’m in a pickle: either the Knicks wrap this up in five, or I’ll need to fake an injury so I can watch Game Six. What’s the marital equivalent of an SGA flop?
But if you pinned me down, I’d predict: Impossible Four, Unlikely Five . . . Knicks in Six.
Your memories of the 1999 Finals must be fonder than mine. For one, I was inebriated throughout the series, watching from a Belmar barstool while my soon-to-be (and eventually ex-) wife drowned me in whiskey. Suffice it to say, my recollection is blurry. For two, look at those box scores. Yikes! The Knicks scored 77 in Game One and 67 in Game Two. It’s crazy to remember that they averaged 86 points per game that season. Sure, that was nearly the lowest in the league, but the NBA was still a far cry from the point-paloozas of today. In 25 years, teams will average 150 and play exhibition games on Mars.
The current Spurs team has no trouble running up the scoreboard. And in the playoffs, they’ve looked more cohesive than the iteration New York beat in the NBA Cup. Even then, they were no pushovers; the Knicks had to rally in the fourth, winning the quarter 35–19. When the Thunder were favored in the WCF, I was skeptical. San Antonio proved me right. They’re truly the best in the West, and, truth be told, they’re a helluva lotta fun to watch.
I can’t wait for these two teams to lock horns. I’m here for any and all of your questions, although brilliant answers are not guaranteed (many brain cells died before this blogger sobered up). I’m curious to know what you think is different between the Spurs of this moment versus the team that NY beat in the Cup game. I have assumptions (a young team coming to understand each other’s rhythms and style after playing more games together, for instance) but you’ve watched them more than I.
J.R.
The changes the Spurs have undergone since the Knicks beat them on December 16 is a fun topic because some started soon after, and some have just been completed in overcoming Oklahoma City.
The first transition was in the team’s approach on offense. Early in the season, the offense ran through Victor, and opponents were selling out to stop him at all costs. Sometimes this would work (the early-season games against Phoenix are great examples) and San Antonio’s offense simply cratered. Even in the games they won, the Spurs would go through extremely long offensive droughts. This continued until the all star break after which Wemby suddenly showed that he’d learned that he didn’t have to be the center of the offense for the team to win.
Suddenly, instead of calling for the ball while 20 feet from the basket, going on-on-one, and driving into loads of help defense and turning the ball over (which he’d done a lot of last season), he would set screens and roll while the defense stretched to keep him from the rim, which opened up all kinds of opportunities for the Spurs shooters and drivers to exploit. That’s the environment in which Wemby would then attack, and defenses have a hard time defending so many threats, and that explains the run they went on from February through the end of the season.
Then the postseason came, which taught the coaching staff and the team to deal with situational threats that are rarely seen during the regular season. The OKC series was an advanced education in developing new offensive strategies on the fly, and if they hadn’t passed that test we wouldn’t be talking right now.
So that’s what’s changed since we met. There was the final meeting of the year in that stretch, which New York won, and it’s apparent that the Knicks are a different beast from any of the previous Spurs opponents because of how they handled SA during the 20+ game stretch in which their only loss was to the Knickerbockers. Then as if that weren’t enough, they unlocked KAT’s point center module and started tearing through teams. San Antonio made it past the defending champs largely through size and physicality, but New York has shooting AND length. They have size at the wing that can dwarf the Spurs, and they’re on a win streak longer than the Thunder’s 8-0 run to start the playoffs.
All that to say, I haven’t seen enough of the Knicks’ recent games to have anything close to a good foundation to make an educated guess from. So I have some questions that would help me get ready for the series; some about basketball, some about the fanbase, and some about you: Has point KAT been that big a deal? In other words, was placing the ball in his hands the move that facilitated the 9-0 win streak? How much point KAT have they been using?
R.R.
Indeed, like the Spurs, New York has improved since December — and not just by dumping Guerschon Yabusele. It took a while to get cooking, though.
“Wemby suddenly showed that he’d learned he didn’t have to be the center of the offense for the team to win.”
You could say the same about Jalen Brunson.
Throughout the season, many complained that Mike Brown should play Brunson off the ball more often, for multiple reasons. It saves his legs, and it diversifies the offense. But the Knicks kept drilling the same formula repeatedly.
Through two seasons, the Towns-Brunson pairing was never as successful as it could have been. Countless games started stale and didn’t improve until the reserves came in to mix up the lineup. Usually, KAT would flourish while Jalen rested in the second quarter, and he’d get some buckets in the third, letting Jalen take center stage in the fourth.
Here’s another gripe: For whatever reason (either by his choice or the coach’s) KAT doesn’t post up. It didn’t happen under Thibs, either, so you can draw your own conclusions. We came to accept it, but it drove some of the fanbase nuts.
Anyway, the first three games of the playoffs followed the same script they tried all season. And after falling behind 1-2 to the clearly less-talented Hawks (losing each game by one point), many fans wondered if our hopes had been too high.
Then, a change. Point-KAT was unleashed; the team started playing faster, exploiting more fast-break opportunities; the scoring load was shared across all five starters (plus one sharpshooting Shamet); and their defense has bordered on criminally abusive. They unlocked an unprecedented level of beautiful basketball during their 11-game winning streak — and their historic numbers back it up.
Some specific changes we’ve seen is Mikal Bridges bringing the ball up the court more often, and Hart taking off on a sprint if he’s hauled in a rebound. That means a good defender has to chase Jalen around away from the ball, while the other four starters go to work — and each can shoot or attack the rim.
Karl is an exceptional passer. As the hub, he can thread a pass to a cutter, zip it out to a corner (and from there it swings until an open shooter is found), rise up for a high-percentage shot, or put his shoulder down and drive to the cup.
So the Knicks unlocked basketball nirvana by relying less on Brunson as the primary ball handler, rocketing defensive rebounds down the court for fast-paced buckets, and letting KAT operate as a hub. Just as the Spurs learned to rely less on Wemby, the Knicks did the same with Jalen. And, lo and behold, both players became even more valuable to their teams.
A few Q’s for you. Where do you think the Spurs will most surprise the Knicks? What vulnerabilities worry you the most? (You mentioned size, but most of your key guys are 6’5” and up — and Wemby is a friggin’ tree.)
J.R.
When the NBA Cup final was over, who could have expected that both teams would be in the Finals because their centers started initiating their offense as 7-foot point guards? Well it’s happened. I know that KAT has spent far more time in that role, but Point Wemby made a significant contribution at the beginning of Game 7 in OKC and it helped the Spurs build their first lead. So I’m wondering how much of that we’ll see in the Finals, and I’m enjoying with anticipation the media losing their minds over a series in which centers are leading their teams in assists. With how much of a copycat league this is, it would be interesting to see how far the idea can go.
As to how the Spurs will surprise the Knicks, I think it has to be with Dylan Harper. The rookie has played well all year, but there’s nothing about his play in the playoffs that looks the slightest bit like it’s his first season in the league. Of all the changes the Spurs have made since they’ve played NY, Harper’s emergence has to be the one that I think will have the biggest effect on the Finals because he’s like no one else at his age in ages, literally. When his numbers aren’t matching Magic Johnson’s rookie playoff stats, they’re setting rookie postseason records. If he hadn’t gotten an adductor injury during the WCF, there’s no way he’d be able to surprise anyone because I believe that it would have been a shorter series, and he’d have been one of the major Spurs stories heading into the Finals. Even with the 3-4 subpar games from Dylan as he recovered his health, you can make a strong case that San Antonio doesn’t eliminate OKC without him.
On the vulnerabilities front, it’s all about New York’s size for me. You’re right that the Spurs have big guards, but their forwards are undersized against most teams in the league. Against Anunoby and Robinson, they’re almost tiny. Also, San Antonio likes to guard opposing centers with a guard or a wing, so that Wemby can roam the paint and play Gandalf. (You shall not pass!) If they do that in the Finals then that’s another matchup the Spurs are small in, which could create rebounding problems and a bevy of other issues, crossmatching, etc.
Ok, my questions for you: Who did you want to advance between the Thunder and the Spurs and why? And are you concerned about one of the consistent issues over the past few postseasons: rest-induced rust for the team that ended its series early?
R.R.
Cooper Flagg deserves his flowers, but Harper deserved more votes for Rookie of the Year. His skills and poise in the biggest moments have impressed us at P&T. Wemby, Castle, and Harper: three excellent drafts for you, my friend!
Upon examining the strengths and weaknesses of both Western Conference finalists, I argued that the Knicks should want to face the Spurs. Not the greatest take, in hindsight. I assumed that San Antonio’s youth and mounting fatigue after a grueling three rounds would make them less formidable than the defending champion Thunder. Furthermore, many of these young Spurs had never played so many games without a break, counting both the regular season and the postseason. After watching them lay out OKC on the road in a closeout game, I should probably surrender my sportswriting license.
Now I’m a little worried that the Knicks have had too much time off. It wouldn’t astonish me if New York loses Game One. They’ve played just eight games in the past month, and while that absolutely keeps them fresh, allows for injury recovery, etc., I wonder how they can maintain their game conditioning. Playing 40+ minutes of NBA basketball is different from 40 minutes on a stationary bike. You’ll recall that they were pretty rusty early in Game One against Cleveland after nine days’ rest. They fell behind by 22 points before their amazing, miraculous, one-for-the-ages comeback to win in overtime.
Excuse me while watch that fourth quarter and overtime again.
Phew, I’m back. Needed a shower after that. . . . Yeah, so, this break between Game Seven and the Finals might actually be the perfect length for San Antonio — long enough to get healthy and prepare for its opponent, short enough not to lose momentum — while eight days off might not be ideal for New York.
Question for you: Has there been any word on De’Aaron Fox’s high-ankle sprain? He seemed really limited in the Thunder series, but I’d imagine he’s getting better all the time (forgive the obligatory Beatles reference). How do you feel when Castle plays lead guard? I recall he had an 11-assist, 11-turnover double-double in Game One of the WCF.
J.R.
Your request for an Official Sportswriting License from the Guild of Legitimate Sportswriters was approved? Lucky! I guess I shouldn’t wonder; you live in New York state after all. Must be nice to cover the largest media market in the hemisphere. Meanwhile, we small market folk have to make do with the sportswriting licenses we find at the bottoms of a cereal boxes. But that didn’t stop me from getting mine laminated and displaying it proudly in my home office workstation right next to my typewriter, my dogeared copy of the AP Stylebook, and my horn-rimmed glasses with the old prescription that I only use to focus the sun to burn ants after the Spurs lose.
As for the Knicks’ Game 1 comeback win, there is no shame in re-re-watching those recaps, particularly when you have so much time to wait before your team can generate new highlight reels. I’m only a couple days removed from Game 7, and I found myself going down the rabbit hole of one video after another and had to tear myself away when you messaged me to say it was my turn to write. That said, isn’t it interesting that both the Knicks and the Spurs had to endure overtime in the first game of their conference final series? Makes me wonder what other kinds of similarities there are to be uncovered over the next two and a half weeks.
In order to answer your question about any news concerning the condition of Fox’s ankle, I need to introduce you to the Spurs media landscape. This isn’t like the Big Apple where the media is strong enough to get a coach fired if they don’t get complete enough answers to their questions. In San Antonio, the tenure of the head coach doesn’t rely on anything except the good will of the owner, and that good will has essentially been granted to Gregg Popovich for life. (In case you don’t know, Popovich is still the president of basketball operations which means that he is the one in charge of hiring the general manager. In other words, Pop named his successor.) In this environment, we find out about the news concerning injuries at the same time that everyone else does: an hour and 15 minutes before tip off. So, no, there’s no additional word outside of our own speculation surrounding what kind of advanced treatment he’s receiving. (No need to apologize for Beatles references. I love the Fab Four.)
My feelings about Castle are not particularly complicated. First and second-year players aren’t known for being able to avoid turnovers, and Stephon is no exception. His exceptional qualities are so many and varied that I happily classify the turnovers as the price for entry. I remember hearing Steve Kerr, at the beginning of the Golden State dynasty, discuss the Warriors’ turnovers in terms that I’d never heard a coach use before. He said something to the effect that the team was at its best when the ball moved, and he would prefer that his players made mistakes while passing for advantage, as opposed to mistakes of passing omission. It sounded revolutionary at the time because Pop always considered turnovers an existential threat. Castle turns it over less frequently when Fox is out there to calm things down. The problem at the beginning of the Thunder series was Fox‘s absence, which hopefully won’t happen again.
For my next queries, I have to go back to the All-Star game for the set up. Wemby and KAT played together and Victor got quite upset about more than one of Towns’ … defensive choices. Much seemed to be made about Wemby’s body language with people interpreting it as him blaming KAT for the loss. This also seemed to play into a reputation for a certain lack of focus on defense in high leverage moments.
So my questions are: is this reputation earned, what forms do his miscues take, and are you concerned about how he’ll handle the kind of complex and fluid defensive schemes that success in the Finals requires?
R.R.
Ah, yes, I heard tales of sportswriters sharing malteds with Gregg Popovich on a bench outside the Alamodome while watching tumbleweeds roll by. Meanwhile, in the metropolis, writers interviewed players in the Champagne Room at Scores (allegedly). Alas, everyone’s too brand-conscious for such extracurricular hijinks these days, or at least they don’t invite me along for the fun.
True confession: I loved Pop as a coach. He was a gruff, fundamentals-focused skipper like Thibs, who deserves credit for laying the foundation that made this Finals appearance possible. Pop always seemed both perfectly suited to San Antonio and an odd fit. He got far more rope than he would have in New York thanks to the small market and his winning track record, yet he was also outspoken, unconcerned about offending the season-ticket-holder base. We saw one aspect of the man in front of the camera. The fact that former players like Tim Duncan are helping him recover from his stroke speaks volumes about his character (and theirs).
On the subject of injuries, the Knicks are notoriously tight-lipped as well. We may never know how Mitchell Robinson broke his finger. If Leon Rose & Co. hadn’t done such a tremendous job building the roster, they’d be pilloried for their silence. I believe Leon has sat for one interview in six years as president of basketball operations. Try getting away with that in any other city, or any other profession.
In my Game Two preview of the Eastern Conference Finals, I wrote something like, “Lord Silver must be smiling.” Early on, both conference finals looked destined to be epic when each began with an overtime thriller. Then the Cavs folded like laundry. While we were ecstatic that New York steamrolled the next three games, there wasn’t much drama to it.
The Finals should be a helluva show. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams rip off a 15-point run every game, but a blowout either way feels unlikely–if the teams take turns, winning one, losing one, etc. My family and I live about three hours from the city, though my son in Brooklyn insists we’d be safer farther away during the Finals—maybe bunkered in an Airbnb in Buffalo. If the Knicks win, the fans might steal the Statue of Liberty. If they lose, City Hall could burn to the ground.
Regarding Castle’s turnovers: I’m too lazy to look it up, but Mike Brown recently explained why some turnovers are better than others. His logic shared the spirit of your Steve Kerr reference. Still, 11 giveaways is an Ooof. I hope Stephon will be as generous to the Knicks. You’re right, though; with Fox back, Castle will have fewer opportunities to cough up the rock.
Here’s the thing about Towns. Knicks fans have pulled out copious amounts of hair over two types of fouls: Karl’s occasional brain-fart foul and, worse, his hook-on-the-drive foul. His teammates didn’t care for them, either. You could see the blood drain from their faces when he hooked his way into another offensive infraction and then argued that he was the victim.
During this 11-game winning streak, however, Karl has played with discipline. We pray it continues. If he gets into foul trouble early against the Spurs, though, New York will be in trouble. Why? Mitch hasn’t exactly wowed us this postseason and has claimed to be dealing with mental health issues. Add a broken finger and he’s a real wildcard. Ariel Hukporti is the team’s third-string center. If you haven’t heard of him, there’s a reason for that.
Cleveland’s size neutralized Point-KAT early on in the conference finals. New York still won the battle in the paint, however, and pushed the pace to great effect. This series will be different, of course. We expect that Mitch Johnson will strategize to limit KAT, points in the paint will be hard won, and the Spurs will have springier legs than the Cavs, but we’re also sure that Mike Brown knows all this and will plan accordingly. The Knicks have so many offensive weapons, a stifled KAT just means that one of the other guys gets to eat.
I’m curious what similarities, and differences, you’ve seen between Johnson and Pop. And finally, what’s your pick for the series? Who wins, and in how many games?
J.R.
The best description I have of Mitch Johnson is that he’s a updated version of Pop. There are so many similarities between them that it’s easier to describe the differences. Pop was famously against ever giving another team points. He lost a number of games over the years because he wouldn’t foul when up three, which allows the opponent to tie with a three and win in overtime. Johnson has ended my agony by handling end game strategy more to my liking. Also, San Antonio’s defense is far more modern than it was toward the end of Pop’s tenure.
Before I make a prediction, I have to address the Jose Alvarado situation: SA’s coaches better have the guys trained up on his gambits so he can’t create extra possessions with his wonderful sneakiness. Also, there’s the fact that we haven’t yet discussed the player who’s guaranteed the championship ring this year, Jeremy Sochan. Just putting this here for the moment, so we remember to chop it up before the series is over.
Now to the series: I like the Spurs in 6 (yes, even on the road at MSG), but I could see them winning in 7 or 5 depending how things break. First, they have the rust/rest early advantage. Second, I don’t think the Knicks have had to face the same quality of opponents that the Spurs have had to overcome and the adjustment to the level of play might be worth something in this series. Third, if San Antonio can keep Wemby off KAT and near the basket, then his ability to lock down the paint throws a major wrench into New York’s offense.
So there you have it; I hate making predictions and you got one out of me. Anyway, here’s to an entertaining series opener, and I’ll see you on the other side!
By J.R. Wilco, via Pounding The Rock