By Law Murray | The Athletic, 2026-05-20 09:00:46
欢迎来到第三档（Tier 3），这很可能是最两极分化的一档。对于某些球队来说，这就是他们球员上限的所在，这显然让他们很难进入争冠球队的讨论范畴。
今年，有22支球队的球员入选了第三档（去年为21支）。只有两支球队没有任何球员进入前三档，且没有任何一支球队在没有二档及以上球员的情况下锁定季后赛前六的种子席位。在2025年，休斯顿火箭队是唯一一支在没有更高级别球员的情况下锁定前六席位的球队。好消息是，休斯顿当时高居西部第二。坏消息是，火箭队在抢七大战中主场不敌7号种子金州勇士队——这支球队在前两档中拥有两名球员。此后，休斯顿决定出手拿下凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。
今年唯一一支在没有该档以上球员的情况下打进季后赛的球队是奥兰多魔术队，他们是东部第八。对魔术队来说，好消息是他们曾对阵头号种子底特律活塞队取得3-1的领先。坏消息是，魔术队惨遭3-1逆转。而更糟糕的消息是，奥兰多为了交易得到一名处于该档的球员，净送出了三个首轮签，却依然不得不解雇他们的主教练。
并非这一档的所有球员都是全明星。也并非这一档的所有球员都应该成为全明星。有些人可能永远无法成为全明星。但更重要的是赢下比赛。这一档由那些将决定季后赛席位归属的球员组成。
Tier 3A
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坦率地说，这个子档次就是这四位球员各自的上限。他们都是非常优秀的球员，但这里就是最适合他们的位置。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 远未达到完全体，但这位2025年的年度最佳新秀已经是马刺队的首要持球手。他在攻防两端都展现出极强的侵略性，让人很难忽视他的影响力。他能频繁造成杀伤，冲击篮筐，场均助攻位列联盟前十，拼抢篮板积极，并且在防守端持球点时表现强硬。这还是在一支充满天赋后卫的球队中实现的。如果身高6英尺6英寸（约1.98米）的卡斯尔能练出稳定的投篮，那么他将成为其他球队的巨大威胁。他的首个季后赛征程已经展现出他完全有能力做到这一点的迹象。
这里的内线球员都是全明星，但需要说明的是。世事总有例外，比如阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 曾在单场比赛中狂砍83分。本赛季阿德巴约没有其他单场40+的比赛，单场30+的比赛也只有四场。如果把那场比赛从阿德巴约的赛季数据中扣除，他场均只有19.2分。但阿德巴约确实创造了历史第二高的单场得分纪录，这让他的场均得分达到了20.1分，这也是他九年职业生涯中第二个场均20+的赛季。这使得阿德巴约成为本赛季仅有的五位出场超过20场且场均贡献20分10篮板的球员之一。阿德巴约能运球、能传球、能投篮，同时还能保持高水平的防守。但他并不是一个精英级别的护筐者，而且他的投篮命中率已经连续五个赛季下滑。
杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 没有获得新秀合同的提前续约，但他随后的回应是在常规赛中入选了东部最佳球队的全明星，场均砍下19.5分和10.5个篮板。然而，当季后赛开始后，杜伦通过运球创造优势并赢下比赛的能力便魔法失效。杜伦只有22岁，他已经展现出了传球和投篮的潜质，同时防守端也有所进步。但他需要对这次季后赛的失利做出回应。
与杜伦一样，阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 本赛季也入选了全明星。他技术全面，既能作为挡拆的发起者也能作为终结者，同时还具备低位背身和面筐单打的能力。在所有中锋里，只有尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 的场均助攻数比申京更多。最大的挑战在于，申京和约基奇一样，在首发中锋里的护筐表现排在联盟倒数前五。此外，申京不擅长外线投篮，这可能会限制他的上限。
Tier 3B
这是一个非常有趣的子档次，里面挤满了备受争议的全明星人选、近期的奖项得主，以及最快在下赛季就能进入这些荣誉讨论范围的球员。
拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 和 达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 是这一档的控球后卫。只要他们能保持健康并在防守端得到保护，两人都是极具杀伤力的挡拆急停跳投高手，能够通过掌控节奏来接管比赛。鲍尔身高6英尺7英寸（约2.01米），擅长拼抢篮板和抢断，减少了失误，并且出手三分时毫不犹豫。在经历前三个赛季场均缺席超过35场比赛之后，鲍尔本赛季出战了72场。但他的上场时间必须受到控制，他的投篮选择有时令人抓狂，而且他的罚球率降到了职业生涯新低。此外，尽管鲍尔曾带领夏洛特黄蜂队打出过两个胜率过半的赛季，但他仍未能终结球队的季后赛荒。加兰从骑士队被交易到了快船队，由于双脚脚趾受伤，他本赛季仅出战了职业生涯新低的45场比赛。在场均29.9分钟的出场时间里，他场均仅获得2.7次罚球，创下近五年来的新低。与鲍尔不同，加兰身高只有6英尺1英寸（约1.85米），他的身材有时会在攻防两端给他带来麻烦。但加兰的投篮选择比鲍尔更好，而且他的三分命中率已接近40%。
得分后卫 泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro)、诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 和 奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 去年就处于相近的子档次，这次他们又聚在了一起。希罗在休赛期接受脚踝手术后度过了一个平庸的赛季，未能延续他2025年入选全明星的势头。下赛季将是他合同的最后一年。尽管如此，希罗依然是一名多才多艺的球员，凭借出色的组织和投篮能力，他既能持球也能打无球。鲍威尔则利用希罗赛季初的挣扎表现，生涯首次入选全明星，场均罚球5.5次和助攻2.5次均创下生涯新高。鲍威尔的不足之处——以及为什么即使他终于入选了全明星也无法排得更高——正是导致快船队在他合同年之前将其交易的诸多担忧：年龄、耐用性、运动能力轻微下滑、身高6英尺3英寸（约1.91米）导致缺乏位置多面性，以及在全明星周末后难以维持上半赛季的高光表现。与鲍威尔一样，里夫斯在展现出高超的得分艺术（尤其是制造罚球的能力）后，可能也在寻求一份新合同。在非队内第一得分手的球员中，里夫斯的场均得分排在联盟第五，并且是仅有的16位场均至少获得7.0次罚球的球员之一。因此，他在打挡拆和单打时效率极高。在防守端，里夫斯制造了大量的进攻犯规，篮板球保护达到生涯最佳水平，场均贡献1.1次抢断。里夫斯的缺点是多次受伤导致每次都要缺席数周，容易出现失误，而且对手的进攻会继续针对他。
这里的小前锋是 布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 和 劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)。英格拉姆时隔六年首次重返全明星行列，并且已经连续七个赛季场均得分达到20+。他能通过挡拆、单打和低位背身得分，同时提供不错的传球和良好的投篮。身高6英尺8英寸（约2.03米）的英格拉姆也是一名可靠的篮板手。但他并不是一个具有防守影响力的球员，而且在他最近两次打进季后赛时，他的表现出现了断崖式下跌——在最近的九场季后赛中，他的投篮命中率仅为33.6%。尽管马尔卡宁身高7英尺1英寸（约2.16米）、体重240磅，犹他爵士队依然将他放在小前锋位置上，这在进攻端创造了巨大的优势。在全联盟中，没有哪个球员比马尔卡宁更擅长利用无球掩护得分，他能制造大量犯规，而且投篮极其稳定。尽管身材高大，马尔卡宁并不是一个好的护筐者。在本赛季NBA的47位场均20+得分手中，只有狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 的场均助攻数（2.1次）比马尔卡宁更少。除了马尔卡宁遭遇的各种伤病外，犹他多年的摆烂计划也导致马尔卡宁在过去三个赛季中每个赛季的出场数都未能达到60场。下赛季将是马尔卡宁在20多岁时可能打进季后赛的唯一机会。
三位风格迥异的大前锋填补了该子档次的空缺，他们是 OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、保罗·班切罗 (Paolo Banchero) 和 小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)。阿奴诺比在进攻端完全不是核心，但他本赛季依然场均贡献16.7分，同时依然是联盟最强悍的防守者之一。他是NBA最优秀的非全明星球员之一，也堪称联盟最顶尖的3D角色球员。
班切罗在场上常常显得有些杂乱无章，这在很大程度上也反映了魔术队的现状。考虑到他是这支缺乏传统控卫和合格空间支持的球队的进攻核心，这也合情合理。身高6英尺10英寸（约2.08米）、体重250磅的班切罗身材高大且技术娴熟。他能打挡拆、单打和低位背身，同时也是一名可靠的传球手。他的接球三分命中率达到了39%，场均还能获得8次罚球。班切罗擅长拼抢篮板，而且是一位季后赛型球员，在过去三个季后赛中，他的场均得分从常规赛的22.3分飙升至27.4分。不过，班切罗的下限也比人们预期的要低。他的持球投篮表现非常糟糕，容易失误，出手了太多高难度投篮，而且在防守端经常被一步过。
杰克逊最终应该会与马尔卡宁以及很可能是沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 一起，组成一套高大的前场阵容。爵士队在从灰熊队交易得到杰克逊后不久便将其雪藏，但他们可以期待得到一位联盟最顶尖的盖帽型前锋，同时还具备不错的投篮能力。让杰克逊显得美中不足的是他缺乏持续的进攻侵略性、糟糕的助失比，以及在大前锋中垫底的篮板犯规比。
Tier 3C
这个子档次充满了曾有过高光时刻、但仍留有遗憾或仍需证明自己的球员。
阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 是这里唯一的控球后卫。如果说本赛季证明了什么，那就是汤普森不应该成为休斯顿的主要组织者。让他去负责梳理球队半场进攻，对他而言完全是扬短避长。即便如此，汤普森依然是攻防两端的利器，能够通过多种战术配合得分，同时在攻防两端统治篮板，并在防守端制造威胁。汤普森也是一名优秀的组织者，能很好地控制失误。本赛季只有埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 的扣篮次数比汤普森更多。虽然汤普森将罚球命中率提升到了77.9%，但他致命的弱点依然是跳投，他的三分命中率仅为21.6%。
魔术队非常看重 戴斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，值得称赞的是，他打满了全部82场首发，表现完全符合预期。贝恩的三分命中率达到39.1%，罚球命中率高达90.8%，场均还能贡献4.1次助攻、4.1个篮板和86次抢断。唯一的不足是，这可能已经是贝恩的极限了，除非他能掌握“碰瓷”造罚球的黑魔法。
这里的两名小前锋是身材高大的 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)（身高6英尺9英寸，约2.06米）和 弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner)（身高6英尺10英寸，约2.08米）。弗拉格荣膺了年度最佳新秀，而且和汤普森很像，他在达拉斯不得不承担大量时间控球后卫的角色。同样和汤普森类似，弗拉格的三分球投得很挣扎，而且他的接球投篮命中率（28.2%）甚至比持球投篮（30.7%）还要糟糕。但如果弗拉格能够适应油漆区外的投篮，他将变得极具威胁，因为他已经非常擅长制造罚球，并且在控制失误方面做得很好。在防守端，弗拉格表现稳健，同时能很好地控制犯规。瓦格纳拥有许多与弗拉格相同的特质，不过弗拉格拥有的上限要高得多。瓦格纳同样能频繁走上罚球线，是一位具有影响力的防守者，并具备不错的传球能力。本赛季，瓦格纳受到了脚踝和小腿伤病的困扰，在瓦格纳因伤无法打完对阵活塞队的系列赛后，魔术队惨遭3-1逆转。瓦格纳有时也会陷入投篮打铁的窘境，不过本赛季他的接球投篮表现有所好转（37.8%）。当瓦格纳和班切罗能够健康合体打比赛时，奥兰多看起来非常强大，但这在过去两年里一直是个难题。
出勤率同样是这一档大前锋的主要讨论话题。阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 的股二头肌伤势毁了他的常规赛，而小腿伤势则摧毁了他的季后赛征程。丹佛掘金队非常想念他，而戈登也到了职业生涯的某个节点——人们有理由怀疑，在同样的工作强度下，他是否还能在整个赛季中保持以往那种身体上的统治力。对戈登来说，好消息是他已经磨炼了自己的进攻技巧，以至于他不需要完全依赖顶级的身体素质就能成为一名高效的球员。他能制造罚球，为队友创造机会，并且在过去两个赛季中三分命中率超过了41%。戈登让掘金队在攻防两端都变得更好，但如何留在场上是一个令人担忧的问题。
朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 需要球权在手，但他是一个高效且多才多艺的持球点，能制造大量罚球，并有能力为队友创造投篮机会。他在2025年的季后赛征程对于帮助明尼苏达森林狼队连续第二年闯入西部决赛至关重要。兰德尔在明尼苏达也保持了极高的出勤率，同时在防守端展现出了比以往更积极的态度。由于缺乏护筐能力、三分投射不稳定以及偶尔出现失误，兰德尔的下限有些偏低。他平庸的爆发力也导致他在面对高大防守者时进攻显得有些乏力，这一点在季后赛中依然有所体现。
蔡恩·威廉森 (Zion Williamson) 为这一子档次画上了句号。单从个人能力来看，他依然是一个极具统治力的球员，尤其是在进攻端。他在挡拆的攻防两端都极具统治力，在一对一防守中几乎不可阻挡，并且能以60%的命中率完成终结。威廉森也是一名合格的传球手，在所有首发大前锋中，没有人比他更擅长拼抢对抗下的篮板。威廉森面临的挑战依然是围绕他建队的问题，尤其是考虑到这已经是他职业生涯中第五次单赛季缺席至少20场比赛。威廉森本赛季仅尝试了4次三分球，而且他不是一个护筐者。威廉森出战的下一场季后赛将是他职业生涯的季后赛首秀。
Tier 3D
出于不同的原因，这一子档次中的每一位球员在今年春天都因其自身价值引发了激烈的讨论。
谈到对球队的影响力，德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 影响比赛的方式一直广受赞誉。本赛季有17场比赛，波士顿凯尔特人队在怀特上场的时间里净胜对手20分以上，全联盟仅次于谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)（18场）。在首发控卫中，怀特拥有最顶尖的助失比（3.09）之一，他能像中锋一样保护篮筐，领防能力强悍，并且出勤率极高。话虽如此，怀特并不是一个主要得分手，也不具备成为主要得分手的技能包。他起伏不定的三分手感比往年更加干瘪，这一问题在波士顿首轮痛失3-1领先优势时显得尤为刺眼。怀特能帮你赢球，但他身边需要有得分能力的队友。
另一位备受推崇的球员是 米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)，他可以说是NBA中出勤率最高的球员。布里奇斯目前已经连续八个赛季保持全勤。如果再保持三个全勤赛季，他将创下职业生涯开局连续出场次数最多的历史纪录。但问题在于，布里奇斯有时为了避免受伤风险而改变打法。他的场均罚球次数连续第三年下滑，降至职业生涯新低的1.2次。他的场均得分也降至14.4分，为四个赛季以来的最低水平。他的持球单打也大幅减少。不过，布里奇斯依然是一名高效且极少失误的3D球员。
孔·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 凭借在三分球命中数上领跑所有新秀且命中率高达42.5%的表现，险些斩获年度最佳新秀。在NBA历史上，只有另外五位新秀能在投进至少100个三分球的同时保持至少42.5%的命中率，而在此之前的纪录保持者是斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)——他在新秀赛季以43.7%的命中率投进了166个三分球。克努佩尔的下限极高，还具备不错的传球能力和一定的挡拆战术价值。但夏洛特黄蜂队并没有像达拉斯围绕弗拉格那样，让克努佩尔作为战术核心。你需要在克努佩尔身边配置更多的明星球员。
杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 是一位在季后赛中崛起的球员，他长期以来一直暗示自己有能力在进攻端承担更多的持球角色。然而，在与耐用性极高的进攻核心并肩作战时，麦克丹尼尔斯并没有太多拓展个人进攻战术的机会，而且森林狼队需要他担任外线的主要防守大闸。麦克丹尼尔斯的篮板犯规比也很糟糕。尽管如此，在本赛季场均至少得到14分的109名球员中（至少出战20场），麦克丹尼尔斯是仅有的三位投篮命中率至少达到50%且三分命中率达到40%的球员之一，另外两位是他的队友阿约·多苏穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 和杜兰特。
麦克丹尼尔斯的队友 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 即将年满34岁，他依然是联盟中最具争议的球员之一。他的进攻作用持续减弱，在缺乏球权的情况下，他的场均得分创下了10年来的新低。戈贝尔的黄油手限制了队友给他传球的频率，他在油漆区外毫无威胁，罚球命中率堪称惨案，而且也不是一个低位背身单打的选择。但他的防守影响力巨大，这位四届最佳防守球员在7英尺1英寸（约2.16米）的身高下依然是联盟中最顶尖的护筐者之一。当戈贝尔在场时，明尼苏达每百回合仅失分108.0分，而当他不在场时，这一数字飙升至全队最差的115.9分。这相当于联盟第二好防守与丹佛掘金队防守水平之间的差距。尽管年龄渐长，戈贝尔依然保持着极高的出勤率，并且在面对重大挑战时从不退缩。不信去问问约基奇。
Tier 3E
第三档以一个特殊的“溢出”子档次收尾，其中的球员因伤病和出勤率度过了一个完全被遗忘的赛季，且他们都在身材和/或年龄上存在劣势。这八位球员在近年来都曾荣誉加身，但他们在交易截止日后总共只打了10场比赛。他们都需要在下个赛季重新证明自己。
这里有四名控球后卫。凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 去年也在我与伤病相关的子档次中（当时在第二档）。在去年三月他遭遇前交叉韧带（ACL）撕裂后，达拉斯的战绩还不足以让他考虑复出。欧文在2025年入选了全明星，但自2019年离开波士顿以来，他单赛季的出场数从未超过60场。下赛季，他将以34岁的年龄、6英尺2英寸（约1.88米）的身高，带着大伤初愈的身体开启新征程。贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 虽然只在NBA打了七个赛季，但在过去的三个赛季里（包括季后赛），他总共只打了82场比赛，且没有取得过一场季后赛胜利。莫兰特本赛季因小腿受伤缺席了两周，随后又因非投篮手手肘韧带扭伤而在下半程赛季报销。莫兰特依然能够制造大量罚球并为队友创造机会。但他的效率已经一落千丈，而且在6英尺2英寸（约1.88米）、174磅的身材下，他在防守端需要极大的体系支持。今年休赛期莫兰特极有可能被交易。
达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 是该子档次中唯一一位效力于2026年季后赛球队的球员，他将在36岁时从跟腱撕裂中复出。本赛季看到利拉德赢得三分大赛非常特别，这也是波特兰可以期待的：联盟中最顶尖的超远三分射手之一。特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 在亚特兰大效力八个赛季后被交易，老鹰队最终在没有他的情况下打进了季后赛，而奇才队则对他采取了过度保护。杨因为内侧副韧带（MCL）扭伤错过了他在老鹰队的最后一个赛季的大部分比赛，随后由于右股四头肌和腰部的反复伤病，他在奇才队仅打了五场比赛。作为联盟中身材最娇小的球员之一（身高6英尺2英寸，约1.88米，体重164磅），杨能制造罚球，具备超远的三分射程，并且能提供高水平的进攻创造力。但在围绕杨建队的体系中，要构建一套及格的防守体系需要付出巨大的努力。
吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler III) 本赛季在勇士队表现强劲，尤其是在进攻端。但他目前正在从右膝前交叉韧带（ACL）撕裂中恢复，而他的这个膝盖此前曾接受过半月板部分切除术。他也将下赛季开始前年满37岁。
安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 长期以来一直在抗拒担任首发中锋的职责，他更倾向于打大前锋。对于戴维斯来说，更大的问题在于他在过去六个赛季中有五个赛季至少缺席了25场比赛。他已经33岁了，而且自2020年季后赛在复赛园区内投出38.3%的三分命中率以来，他的三分命中率仅为25.8%。在达拉斯短暂出场的20场比赛中，戴维斯场均仅获得4.1次罚球，创下13年来的新低。他依然能为球队的防守带来巨大提升，并且能在三分线内通过多种方式得分。但人们有理由质疑，一支争冠球队需要围绕戴维斯搭建怎样的阵容，尤其是考虑到他的耐用性问题。
这一档以两位风格迥异的欧洲中锋收尾。多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 曾多次入选全明星和最佳阵容，但他在季后赛中的战术价值并未达到球星级别，他的投篮能力不可靠，而且他是联盟中护筐最差的首发中锋之一。萨博尼斯的耐用性曾是他在萨克拉门托的强项，但左膝半月板撕裂毁了他的本赛季。萨博尼斯依然是一名高效的得分手，拥有同位置中最顶尖的策应传球能力，且几乎没有人比他更擅长抢篮板，但自2023年季后赛以来，他的价值已经大打折扣。
另一方面，伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 则被寄予厚望，旨在帮助印第安纳步行者队重返争冠行列，为此印第安纳送出了极大的筹码才从洛杉矶快船队将其交易得到。祖巴茨虽然没有萨博尼斯那样的明星光环，但他曾入选2025年最佳防守阵容，并且一直是一个强悍的篮板手和护筐者，在低位和挡拆下顺时都极具威胁。在节奏缓慢的快船队效力多年后，他将如何适应印第安纳节奏更快的进攻体系，这将非常值得关注。而且随着印第安纳为了送出一个乐透签给快船而对祖巴茨进行过度保护，他面临的压力也随之增加。祖巴茨是一名优秀的中锋，但他并不是一个能频繁走上罚球线、具备高水平传球能力或有外线投篮威胁的球员。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA Players Tiers 2026: Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, injured standouts in Tier 3
NBA Players Tiers 2026: Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, injured standouts in Tier 3
Welcome to Tier 3, quite possibly the most polarizing tier. For some teams, this is as high as it gets, which obviously doesn’t make it easy to be in contender conversations.
This year, 22 teams are represented in Tier 3 (21 were represented last year). Only two teams don’t have a player placed in the top three tiers, and no team clinched a top-six playoff seed without having a player higher than Tier 3. In 2025, the Houston Rockets were the only team that clinched a top-six seed without a player placed higher than Tier 3. The good news is that Houston was the second seed in the Western Conference. The bad news is that the Rockets lost Game 7 at home to the No. 7-seeded Golden State Warriors, a team that had two players in the first two tiers. Houston decided to go get Kevin Durant afterward.
The only team that made the playoffs this year without a player placed above this tier was the Orlando Magic, the No. 8 in the Eastern Conference. The good news for the Magic is that they took a 3-1 lead against the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. The bad news is that the Magic blew that 3-1 lead. The ugly news is that Orlando traded a net of three first-round picks for a player ranked in this tier and still had to fire its head coach.
Not all of the players in this tier are All-Stars. Not all of the players in this tier should be All-Stars. Some will never be All-Stars. But what matters more is winning games. This tier is made up of players who will decide playoff spots.
Tier 3A
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Quite bluntly, this sub-tier was the ceiling for each of these four players. They’re all very good players, but this was the place they needed to be.
Stephon Castle isn’t close to a finished product, but the 2025 Rookie of the Year is the primary ballhandler for the Spurs and plays with the kind of force on both ends of the floor that makes it hard to ignore his impact. He draws fouls at a high rate, punishes the rim, finished in the top 10 in assists per game, rebounds well and is strong at the point of attack defensively. And that’s on a team full of talented guards. If the 6-foot-6 Castle straightens out his shooting, then he’s going to be a major problem for other teams. His first postseason has already shown signs that he could do just that.
The centers here are all All-Stars, with some caveats. There are outliers, and then there’s Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points in a game. Adebayo had no other 40-point games this season and had only four other 30-point games. If you remove that game from Adebayo’s season, he only averaged 19.2 points per game. But Adebayo did have the second-highest scoring game of all time, and that got him to 20.1 points per game, his second 20-point season in his nine-year career. That made Adebayo one of only five players this season who played more than 20 games and averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds. Adebayo can dribble, pass and shoot while defending at a high level. But he’s not an elite rim protector, and his field goal percentage has dropped in five consecutive seasons.
Jalen Duren didn’t receive a rookie-scale contract extension, then responded by becoming an All-Star for the East’s best team in the regular season while averaging 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. And then the playoffs started, and Duren’s ability to win with his dribble struck midnight. Duren is only 22 years old, and he has flashed the ability to pass and shoot while improving as a defender. But he’s going to need to respond to how this playoff run has gone.
Like Duren, Alperen Şengün was an All-Star this season, and he’s skilled enough to run both ends of the pick-and-roll while being able to post-up and face up. Nikola Jokić is the only center who averages more assists than Şengün. The biggest challenge is that Şengün, like Jokić, is a bottom-five rim protector among starting centers. Şengün also isn’t a good shooter, which could put a cap on his ceiling.
Tier 3B
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This is an intriguing sub-tier packed with contentious All-Star picks, recent award winners and players who could be in those conversations as soon as next season.
LaMelo Ball and Darius Garland are the point guards here, and both are dazzling pick-and-roll pull-up operators capable of taking games over with pace, just as long as they’re available and protected defensively. Ball is 6 foot 7, rebounds well, gets steals, has reduced his turnovers and launches 3s without apologies. After missing more than 35 games each of the previous three seasons, Ball played in 72 games. But his minutes have to be managed, his shot selection can be maddening and his free-throw attempt rate is lower than it has ever been. Also, while Ball has led two winning seasons in Charlotte, he still hasn’t ended the franchise’s playoff drought. Garland was traded from the Cavaliers to the Clippers and he played a career-low 45 games because of toe injuries on both feet. He also averaged a five-year low of 2.7 free-throw attempts in 29.9 minutes. Unlike Ball, Garland is only 6-1, and his size gets him in trouble at times on both ends. But Garland’s shot selection is better than Ball’s, and Garland has approached 40 percent from 3.
Shooting guards Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Austin Reaves were close to the same sub-tier last year, and they’re here together this time around. Herro had a forgettable season following offseason ankle surgery and was unable to build on his 2025 All-Star selection. Next season will be his final year under contract. Still, Herro is a versatile player who can play on or off the ball because of his playmaking and shooting. Powell took advantage of Herro’s difficult start to the season and made his first All-Star Game while averaging career highs of 5.5 free-throw attempts and 2.5 assists. The downside with Powell, and why he isn’t higher despite finally reaching All-Star status, is a lot of the concerns that led the Clippers to trade him ahead of his contract year: age, durability, slightly declining athleticism, a lack of positional versatility at 6-3 and difficulties maintaining his superb seasons after the All-Star break. Like Powell, Reaves is likely searching for a new contract after showing a high level of scoring artistry, particularly from the free-throw line. Reaves ranked fifth in the NBA in points per game among players who did not lead their team in scoring and was one of just 16 players to average at least 7.0 free-throw attempts per game. He was remarkably efficient out of ball screens and isolations as a result. Defensively, Reaves drew a heap of charges, rebounded at a career-best level and averaged 1.1 steals. The drawbacks for Reaves were multiple injuries that cost him several weeks at a time, a penchant for turnovers and the fact that offenses will continue to target him.
The small forwards here are Brandon Ingram and Lauri Markkanen. Ingram made it back to All-Star status for the first time in six years and has scored at least 20 points per game in seven consecutive seasons. He can score out of ball screens, isolations and the post while offering decent passing and good shooting. Ingram is also a solid rebounder at 6-8. But he’s not an impact defender, and his game has fallen off a cliff the last two times he reached the playoffs, where he shot 33.6 percent from the field over his last nine playoff games. Utah has used Markkanen as small forward despite him being 7-1 and 240 pounds, which creates tremendous advantages offensively. No player uses more off-ball screens to score than Markkanen, who draws a heap of fouls and is a solid shooter. Markkanen is not a good rim protector despite his size, and of the 47 20-point scorers in the NBA this season, only Dillon Brooks averaged fewer assists per game than Markkanen (2.1). Utah’s multi-season tank project, in addition to whatever injuries Markkanen has had, has kept Markkanen from playing 60 games in each of the last three seasons. Next season will be Markkanen’s only chance of possibly playing in the playoffs while still in his 20s.
Three very different power forwards round out this sub-tier in OG Anunoby, Paolo Banchero and Jaren Jackson Jr. Anunoby isn’t featured offensively at all, and he still averaged 16.7 points per game this season, while remaining one of the league’s strongest defenders. He is one of the NBA’s best non-All-Stars and arguably its best 3-and-D role player.
Banchero is a chronically messy player, which describes the Magic often. That makes sense given that he is the focal point of an offense lacking a traditional point guard or acceptable spacing. Banchero is huge at 6-10 and 250 pounds and quite skilled. He can run pick-and-rolls, isolations and post-ups and is a solid passer. He also shot 39 percent on off-the-catch 3s and gets to the free-throw line eight times a game. Banchero rebounds well, and he’s a playoff riser, taking his average scoring from 22.3 in the regular season to 27.4 across the last three postseasons. The floor is lower than you’d like with Banchero. He is a very poor shooter off the dribble, turnover-prone and takes too many tough shots, while often beaten defensively.
Jackson should eventually be a part of a massive frontcourt with Markkanen and likely Walker Kessler. The Jazz put Jackson on ice shortly after acquiring him from Memphis, but they can expect to get one of the best shot-blocking forwards in the league to go along with respectable shooting. What makes Jackson frustrating is his lack of consistent offensive force, a poor assist-to-turnover rate and one of the worst rebound-to-foul ratios of any power forward in the league.
Tier 3C
This sub-tier is filled with players who have had exciting moments but have left more to be desired or still have more to show.
Amen Thompson is the lone point guard, and if there is one thing this season has made clear, it’s that Thompson should not be Houston’s primary playmaker. It’s a disservice to him to be responsible for a team running a coherent half-court offense. That said, Thompson is a weapon on both ends, capable of scoring out of a variety of actions while dominating the glass on both ends and making plays defensively. Thompson is also a good playmaker who keeps his turnovers down. Only Evan Mobley had more dunks than Thompson this season. While Thompson improved his free-throw shooting to 77.9 percent, his glaring weakness continues to be his jump shot, as he made just 21.6 percent of his 3s.
The Magic valued Desmond Bane tremendously, and to his credit, he delivered as advertised while starting all 82 games. Bane shot 39.1 percent from 3 and 90.8 percent from the line while adding 4.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 86 steals. The only drawback is that this is probably the most you can ask for from Bane unless he acquires the dark arts of free-throw merchantry.
The small forwards here are the jumbo-sized 6-9 Cooper Flagg and 6-10 Franz Wagner. Flagg earned Rookie of the Year honors, and much like Thompson, he had to play an inordinate amount of minutes as a point guard in Dallas. Also like Thompson, Flagg was a poor 3-point shooter and actually worse off the catch (28.2 percent) than off the bounce (30.7 percent). But if Flagg gets comfortable shooting outside the paint, he’s going to be a problem, because he is already great at getting to the line, and he did a good job keeping his turnovers down. Defensively, Flagg is already solid while keeping his fouls down. Wagner shares many of the same traits as Flagg, with Flagg having much more ceiling to explore. Wagner also gets to the line at a high rate, is an impact defender and has decent passing ability. This season, Wagner struggled with ankle and calf injuries, and the Magic blew a 3-1 lead after Wagner couldn’t finish the series against the Pistons. Wagner also goes through bouts of unsightly shooting, though he was better off the catch this season (37.8 percent). Orlando looks very good when Wagner and Banchero actually string games together, but that’s been a challenge for two years now.
Availability is a primary topic of conversation around this group’s power forwards as well. Aaron Gordon’s hamstring issues ruined his regular season and a calf injury wrecked his playoff run. Denver missed him dearly and Gordon has reached the point in his career where it’s fair to wonder if he can be as physically dominant over a full season again at the same workload. The good thing for Gordon is that he has cleaned up his offensive skills to the point that he doesn’t need to be a supreme athlete to be an effective player. He gets to the line, makes plays for teammates and has made better than 41 percent from 3 over the last two seasons. Gordon makes Denver better on both ends of the floor, but staying on it is a concern.
Julius Randle needs the ball in his hands, but he’s an effective and versatile on-ball presence who gets a ton of free throws and is capable of creating shots for his teammates. His 2025 playoff run was critical in helping Minnesota reach a second straight Western Conference finals. Randle has also been durable in Minnesota while showing more alacrity defensively than in previous years. The floor is somewhat lower for Randle due to his lack of rim protection, spotty 3-point shooting and occasional bouts with turnovers. His ordinary explosion also tends to make his offense underwhelming against length, which still shows up in the postseason.
Zion Williamson rounds out this sub-tier, and he is still a powerful basketball player in a vacuum, especially offensively. He is dominant in both ends of pick-and-rolls, he can’t be guarded one-on-one and he finishes 60 percent of his field goals. Williamson is a capable passer, and there isn’t another starting power forward who is better at getting contested rebounds. The challenge for Williamson remains roster construction around him, especially given the fact that this was the fifth time he has missed at least 20 games in a season. Williamson attempted only four 3s this season, and he’s not a rim protector. The next playoff game Williamson appears in will be his first.
Tier 3D
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For different reasons, every player in this sub-tier generated strong opinions this spring about their perceived value.
When it comes to team impact, Derrick White has consistently been praised for how he affects games. Boston outscored opponents by more than 20 points in White’s minutes in 17 games this season; only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (18) had more such games. White has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios (3.09) among starting point guards, protects the rim like a center, is strong at the point of attack and is consistently available. With all of that acknowledged, White isn’t a primary scorer, nor does he have the skill set to be one. His streaky 3-point shot was drier than it has been in years, an issue that was even more glaring when Boston blew a 3-1 first-round lead. White helps you win, but he needs to have scoring teammates around him.
Another highly valued player is Mikal Bridges, arguably the most available in the NBA. Bridges has now made it eight seasons without missing a game. Three more perfect seasons would give him the record for most games to start a career with perfect attendance. The problems sometimes arise in that Bridges sometimes plays in a way to avoid putting himself at risk for injury. His free-throw attempts dropped for the third year in a row, down to a career-low 1.2 per game. His points per game also dropped to 14.4 points per game, his lowest mark in four seasons. His on-ball actions also decreased significantly. But Bridges is still an efficient 3-and-D player who seldom turns the ball over.
Kon Knueppel nearly earned the Rookie of the Year honors after leading all rookies in made 3s while making them at a 42.5 percent rate. Only five other rookies in NBA history have made at least 42.5 percent of their 3s while also hitting at least 100 of them, and the previous record-holder at that percentage was Stephen Curry, who made 166 3s as a rookie at 43.7 percent. Knueppel has a remarkably high floor, adding decent passing ability and some ball-screen utility. But Charlotte isn’t playing through Knueppel as Dallas plays through Flagg. You need more star players around Knueppel.
Jaden McDaniels has been a playoff riser who has long hinted that he would be capable of an increased on-ball role offensively. There aren’t many opportunities for McDaniels to stretch his game out while playing with durable offensive centerpieces, and the Timberwolves need McDaniels to be their primary perimeter defender. McDaniels also has a poor rebound-to-foul ratio. Still, out of 109 players who averaged at least 14 points per game this season (minimum 20 games), McDaniels was one of three to shoot at least 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3, along with teammate Ayo Dosunmu and Kevin Durant.
McDaniels’ teammate Rudy Gobert is going to be 34 years old and remains one of the most polarizing players in the league. His offensive utility continues to dwindle, and his scoring hit a 10-year low to go with his lack of touches. Gobert’s hands limit how often his teammates look for him, he’s a non-threat outside of the paint, his free-throw shooting is tragic and he’s not a post-up option. But his defensive impact is significant and the four-time Defensive Player of the Year is still one of the best rim protectors in the league at 7-1. Minnesota allowed 108.0 points per 100 possessions with Gobert on the floor, compared to a team-worst 115.9 points per 100 possessions with Gobert off the floor. That’s the difference between the second-best defense in the league and the Denver Nuggets defense. Gobert is durable despite his advancing age, and he consistently shows up for big challenges. Just ask Jokić.
Tier 3E
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Tier 3 ends with a special overflow sub-tier of players who had completely forgettable seasons because of injury and availability, and all have size and/or age deficits as well. These eight players have all been decorated in recent years, but together, they’ve played a total of 10 games after the trade deadline. They all need to re-establish themselves next season.
There are four point guards here. Kyrie Irving was in my injury-related sub-tier last year as well, in Tier 2. Dallas wasn’t good enough to entertain a return to the floor after he tore his ACL last March. Irving was an All-Star in 2025, but he hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since leaving Boston in 2019, and he will enter next season as a 34-year-old, 6-2 guard coming off a major injury. Ja Morant has only played seven NBA seasons, but he has played in 82 games in the last three seasons, including playoffs, with no playoff wins. Morant missed two weeks this season with a calf injury, then was shut down for the second half because of a sprained ligament in his non-shooting elbow. Morant can still generate a high number of free throws and make plays for others. But his efficiency has cratered, and at 6-2, 174 pounds, his ability to hold up defensively requires a lot of support. It feels like a high possibility that Morant will be traded this offseason.
Damian Lillard is the only player in this sub-tier attached to a 2026 playoff team, and he’ll be returning from a torn Achilles tendon at age 36. It was special to see Lillard win the 3-point contest this season, and that’s what Portland has to look forward to: one of the best deep shooters in the game. Trae Young was traded after eight seasons in Atlanta, and the Hawks wound up making the playoffs without him while the Wizards bubble-wrapped him. Young missed most of his last season in Atlanta because of a sprained MCL, then played only five games with the Wizards due to recurring issues with his right quadriceps and lower back. One of the smallest players in the league at 6-2 and 164 pounds, Young can generate free throws, shoot 3s with deep range and create offense at a high level. But forming a coherent defense on a Young team requires a lot of work.
Jimmy Butler III was having a strong season for the Warriors, especially offensively. But he is now recovering from a torn right ACL, the same knee in which Butler had a partial meniscectomy. He’ll also turn 37 years old before the start of next season.
Anthony Davis has long fought the responsibilities of being a primary starting center, preferring to be a power forward. The bigger issue for Davis is that he has missed at least 25 games in five of the last six seasons, is 33 years old and has made only 25.8 percent of his 3s since shooting 38.3 percent in the bubble during the 2020 postseason. Davis attempted a 13-year low, 4.1 free-throw attempts per game in his 20-game cameo with Dallas. He should still be a major boost to a team’s defense, and he can score in a variety of ways inside the 3-point line. But it’s fair to question what kind of lineup a contender needs to put together around Davis, especially given his durability concerns.
Rounding out the tier are two European centers who are not similar. Domantas Sabonis has been an All-Star and All-NBA selection, but his playoff viability is not star quality, his shooting is not believable and he is one of the worst rim-protecting starting centers. Sabonis’ durability was a strong suit in Sacramento, but a torn left meniscus derailed this season. Sabonis is still an efficient scorer with some of the best facilitation skills at his position, and few rebound better, but his value has taken a hit since the 2023 postseason.
Ivica Zubac, on the other hand, is expected to help the Pacers get back to contention after Indiana surrendered a massive package to acquire him from the LA Clippers. Zubac doesn’t have Sabonis’ star accolades, but he was a 2025 All-Defensive selection and has always been a sturdy rebounder and rim protector who offers viability in the post and as a roller. How he adjusts to the faster-paced Indiana offense after years with the plodding Clippers will be interesting to see and the pressure increases now that Indiana bubble-wrapped Zubac just to surrender a lottery pick to LA. Zubac is a quality center, but he is not a player who gets to the free-throw line at a high rate, passes at a high level or is a shooting threat.
By Law Murray, via The Athletic