By Law Murray / The Athletic, 2026-10-09 17:30:50
今年春天，The Athletic 推出了年度 NBA球员分级，将125名球员划分为五个层级。但第一、二层级中的30名球员无疑最受关注——他们基本上就是最常决定谁具备争冠实力、谁能打进季后赛、最终谁能捧起总冠军奖杯的球星。他们是联盟的门面，也是世界上最优秀的球员。
这些分级并非一成不变。年龄、健康、球队环境、季后赛表现和个人发展，都可能迅速改变一名球员的地位。
因此，随着新赛季即将开启，值得追问的是：谁的行情最有可能变动？
这并不是对2026年球员分级的正式重新排序，而是聚焦于那些上升路径最清晰的球员、有待证明自己的球星，以及最可能下滑的人。
在评估他们时，我主要思考五个问题：这名球员能有多出色？他能打多少场比赛？他能对赢球做出多大贡献？他能在这个水准维持多久？以及他的球队环境会如何影响以上所有因素？
带着这些思考，以下是我将在2026-27赛季重点关注的内容。
维克托·文班亚马正叩响我们最高子层级的大门。（Geoff Burke / Imagn Images）
巅峰展望
我的最高子层级1A由谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 领衔。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大已连续两年荣膺NBA常规赛MVP，中间还加冕了总决赛MVP；约基奇则是三届MVP得主，过去六年五次入选NBA最佳阵容一阵。唯一落选的那一年（2022-23赛季），他赢得了总决赛MVP。
哪些第一层级的球员能够加入——甚至超越——这两位巅峰人物？让我们为其余球员做一个简明的论证。
维克托·文班亚马（1B）是最显而易见的候选人。他是现任年度最佳防守球员，也是MVP票选 finalist，并率领球队在西部决赛抢七大战中击败了吉尔杰斯-亚历山大领衔的雷霆。总决赛则暴露了文班亚马仍需提升之处：在那场五场溃败中，他投篮命中率仅为46.6%，失误数（13次）与助攻数持平。下一步，他要展现的是在比赛进入白热化阶段时的应对能力——他必须持续地打到自己的致命得分点。
卢卡·东契奇（1B）是现任得分王，如今也是队中仅存的成名球星。他的数据不会有什么问题。真正的问题是：他能否重新找回击败顶级强队的能力？在缺席了大量比赛的两个赛季之后，他能否保持身体状态和耐久度？他能否更好地控制与裁判的互动？他因技术犯规过多被禁赛一场，险些失去奖项评选资格。
对于安东尼·爱德华兹（1C）来说，是时候在攻防两端全面兑现天赋，真正跻身MVP讨论的核心了——尤其是现在他拥有拉梅洛·鲍尔这样一位充满活力的控卫搭档。
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博（1C）是第一层级中唯一更换球队的球员，他与巴姆·阿德巴约的化学反应值得密切关注。对阿德托昆博来说，事情很简单——过去四个春天他只打了8场季后赛，仅赢下其中1场。他必须重拾耐久度，率领迈阿密热火打进季后赛，并在季后赛中走得更远。
凯德·坎宁安（1D）已经实现突破，证明自己能率领球队拿到东部前列种子并赢下一轮季后赛系列赛。接下来是打磨阶段。他的失误问题触目惊心，尤其是在季后赛。即便底特律管理层和教练组对坎宁安承担的进攻重负负有一定责任，他也必须大幅降低生涯场均失误——在20场季后赛中，这一数字已高达5.6次。
杰森·塔图姆（1D）身上的压力来了。作为2024年冠军波士顿凯尔特人的最佳球员——尽管不是总决赛MVP——他本赛季将迎来杰伦·布朗一年前曾拥有的机会：以球队无可争议的头号选择开启一个赛季。我们见证了布朗在那个角色中的出色表现。现在轮到塔图姆了，而他刚刚又度过了一个修复右跟腱断裂的休赛期。
杰伦·布伦森能否在我们下一次排名时跻身第一层级？（Bill Streicher / Imagn Images）
叩响第一层级的大门
接下来要讨论的是，哪些球员有可能从第二层级跃升至第一层级。鉴于第一层级上限为10人，这绝非易事。相比把某人从第二层级提拔上来，我更可能把某人踢出第一层级。话虽如此，在总决赛落幕之后，已经出现了一个非常明显的突破候选人。
杰伦·布伦森（2A）是现任总决赛MVP。他为球队提供了一项球星最宝贵的特质：曾率队夺冠所带来的自信。布伦森的有趣之处在于，他已经30岁，而他下一次入选最佳阵容一阵将是生涯首次。布伦森能否像2026年季后赛那样，在整个常规赛中保持统治级表现？登顶之后，他又将如何续写篇章？他已经证明自己是小个后卫中的例外，而眼下，他通往第一层级的道路清晰可见。
当布伦森作为小个后卫的英雄表现广受赞誉时，这些赞誉却是以另一位我极为推崇的小个后卫为代价的：多诺万·米切尔（2A）。好消息是，米切尔终于打进了分区决赛。坏消息是，他仍然没有赢下过一场分区决赛。米切尔比布伦森晚出生一周，却早一年进入联盟。到了这个阶段，两人应被视为同代人。米切尔签下了续约大合同，球队的薪资也十分昂贵。现在，轮到他带领骑士更进一步了。
杰伦·布朗（2B）被交易到了那支上一次曾被他所在球队在3-1领先时翻盘的球队。和布伦森一样，他也是总决赛MVP。布朗上赛季同样展现了极高的竞技水准。如今身披费城76人战袍，鉴于队友们的局限性，布朗有机会成为新球队中最好的攻防一体球星。他能否胜任这一角色，或将决定费城是否具备真正的争冠实力。
继续留在费城的话题上，泰瑞斯·马克西（2B）已经展现出一名顶级主控所具备的特殊气质，如今他有了布伦森这个榜样——身边拥有一群出色的队友时能成就什么。马克西每年都在进步。鉴于费城集结的天赋，他的数据可能首次出现下滑，但如果他对赢球的影响力持续上升，马克西同样有望挑战“小个后卫定理”。
继续说泰瑞斯们，泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿（2E）在跟腱修复手术后的恢复期中回归印第安纳步行者。受伤时，哈利伯顿距离不朽传奇仅差一场比赛，而他的球队在他倒下后随之崩塌。如今，步行者已完成补强。问题在于哈利伯顿右跟腱撕裂后的恢复情况如何，以及步行者能否重返2025年那段印第安纳之旅的巅峰。很少有球员能打出比哈利伯顿2025年更令人胆寒的季后赛表现。
勒布朗·詹姆斯能否让76人球迷在这个赛季——尤其是季后赛中——笑逐颜开？（Bill Streicher / Imagn Images）
有待证明
我不认为这些第二层级的球员真的需要证明什么。他们已在某种程度上获得认证，我既不认为他们中有人能升入第一层级，也不认为有人会跌出第二层级。但他们每个人都带着切实的利害关系开启新赛季。
科怀·伦纳德（2A）重返多伦多猛龙，并与杰伦·布朗一道，成为仅有的两位在2026年入选最佳阵容后更换球队的球员。与布朗不同，伦纳德过去五年从未突破首轮，因为自2021年ACL手术以来，他效力的球队从未赢过一轮季后赛系列赛。他似乎渴望改变这一切。
切特·霍姆格伦（2B）与文班亚马一道，成为仅有的两位同时入选最佳阵容和最佳防守阵容的球员。随后，霍姆格伦却在西部决赛中“隐身”了。他的下一个任务显而易见，尤其是面对马刺和文班亚马时。
勒布朗·詹姆斯（2B）九年来首次身披新球队战袍，而詹姆斯的球队总有一段磨合期。到了这个阶段，问题已不再是詹姆斯能否仍打出精英水准，而是他能多快弄清这支版本的76人需要他做什么。他在迈阿密、克利夫兰和洛杉矶换队后的第二个赛季都夺得了总冠军。但年近42岁、即将开启生涯第24个赛季的詹姆斯，已没有把这一年当作传统过渡年的奢侈资本。
埃文·莫布利（2C）之于尼克斯，正如霍姆格伦之于马刺：这位年轻的攻防一体内线，其成长可能决定整个时代的上限。这位2025年最佳防守球员，是克利夫兰核心阵容中唯一还处于20多岁年龄段的高潜球员。
杰伦·威廉姆斯（2D）在俄克拉荷马城整个夺冠征程中表现卓越，随后却因投篮手手腕手术和多次腿筋拉伤缺席了接下来赛季的大部分比赛。现在，威廉姆斯迎来了复仇的机会——尤其是在雷霆送走了大量板凳深度之后，正是那些深度曾让球队在威廉姆斯常规赛缺阵时得以存活。
斯蒂芬·库里和凯文·杜兰特在生涯暮年依然高产。（Cary Edmondson / Imagn Images）
存在下滑风险
我打算对层级内部的变动保持理性。既不推崇火箭式的蹿升，也不渲染断崖式的下跌。对于以下球员而言，隐患已足够明显，他们的地位值得持续关注。
斯蒂芬·库里（2A）是过去50年小个后卫统治力的标杆。但出勤率问题正越来越难以与他的表现割裂开来。他有一个麻烦缠身的右膝——上赛季因此缺席了大量比赛——而且常规赛结束前他就将年满39岁。
凯文·杜兰特（2A）尚未表现出明显的衰退迹象，且休斯敦火箭阵中拥有多名老将后卫，他的任务理应更轻松。但杜兰特的球队多年来一直受困于关键时刻和季后赛的挣扎，而杜兰特已经38岁了。持球支援能否帮助杜兰特终结季后赛七连败，并帮他赢得四年来首个季后赛系列赛的胜利？
如果没有达龙·福克斯（2D）——当时他正带着脚踝伤势作战——马刺无法在西部决赛中越过雷霆。但福克斯在总决赛中的挣扎表现值得持续关注，即便他并未与另外两位新秀合同下的前五顺位控卫——斯蒂芬·卡斯尔和迪伦·哈珀——位置重叠。无论从队内还是队外来看，福克斯都面临着一些可能同时改变他的角色和外界评价的独特处境。
詹姆斯·哈登（2D）在其17个NBA赛季中全部打进季后赛。但一旦到了季后赛，失误多于进球的表现是所有人都会紧盯哈登的一点，而他在2026年季后赛中就有7场这样的比赛。哈登已经37岁，挑战越来越多地在于负荷管理。他如何在常规赛扛着球队前进的同时，在季后赛保持最佳决策状态？
在根据球员出勤政策有资格被认定为球星的46名球员中，乔尔·恩比德（2E）以过去三年场均仅出战32场排名垫底。
泰勒·希罗回到了家乡威斯康星，但他和雄鹿身上仍有许多问号。（Michael McLoone / Imagn Images）
变数球员
我曾考虑在此讨论整个3E子层级，但我维持此前对吉米·巴特勒、安东尼·戴维斯、凯里·欧文、达米安·利拉德、贾·莫兰特、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯、特雷·杨和伊维察·祖巴茨的分析。愿他们所有人都能保持健康——不过巴特勒预计要到2027年才能复出。
相反，我想简要关注几名第一、二层级之外的球员，他们的处境自春天以来已发生剧变。
密尔沃基雄鹿在阿德托昆博交易中迎回了一名球星——威斯康星本地人泰勒·希罗（3B）。希罗带着“五重困境”开启新赛季：身处新球队、效力于新教练、身处合同年、球队期望值低，还要从伤病缠身的一个赛季中恢复过来。他不能有丝毫松懈。
布兰登·英格拉姆（3B）被交易至洛杉矶快船，而我们也得知，限制他季后赛发挥的伤病是右跟腱部分撕裂。他五月份接受的手术将推迟他的快船首秀，而当他回归时，他将填补科怀·伦纳德留下的空缺，同时面临2027年球员选项的抉择。
诺曼·鲍威尔（3B）三年内辗转三队，从快船到热火再到芝加哥公牛。鲍威尔以往属于慢热型球员，但在过去两个赛季开局火热之后，他却在全明星周末后状态下滑。与希罗和英格拉姆一样，鲍威尔（2027年球队选项）也可能在赛季末成为自由球员。
朱利叶斯·兰德尔（3C）如今效力于布鲁克林篮网，此前两个赛季他一直是安东尼·爱德华兹在进攻端的主要减压阀。兰德尔手握2027年球员选项，他将在与迈克尔·波特 Jr. 度过一年“你方唱罢我登场”的日子后做出决定。
保罗·乔治（4C）在杰伦·布朗的交易中被送走，你猜对了，他同样手握2027年球员选项。不过，乔治本赛季的任务不是替代布朗，而是替代2025-26赛季版本的塔图姆。考虑到塔图姆上赛季（含季后赛）仅出战22场，而乔治过去两个赛季（含季后赛）也只打了89场，这是一个合理的标准。
状元秀们
我想在本次球员分级盘点收尾时，把目光从成名球星转向两名最终可能强行挤入讨论的球员：最近两届选秀状元。
库珀·弗拉格（3C），现任年度最佳新秀，是许多人都认为没有得到足够炒作和讨论的球员。我在这里不搞炒作，也许在达拉斯度过一个更正常的赛季，将有助于厘清对他的期望值应当是什么样。弗拉格的潜力巨大。他是一名极具竞争心的球员，拥有出色的位置体型和技术。一位回归的明星控卫（凯里·欧文）和一位新任主教练（达斯蒂·梅）能在多大程度上助力弗拉格迈向巨星之路，将非常值得关注。
最值得关注的数字是他的三分命中率——从全明星周末前糟糕的30.8%进一步跌至之后的27.8%。无论接球投还是运球投，他的表现都很差，中距离命中率同样低于平均水准（38%）。如果这些数字能够跃升并在整个赛季保持体面，那么弗拉格可能会变得可怕。
与弗拉格一样，AJ·迪班萨加盟的球队中已有安东尼·戴维斯，还有一名持球权极重的小个后卫（特雷·杨）。与弗拉格不同的是，迪班萨加盟的华盛顿奇才永远与铺天盖地的炒作沾不上边。但同样，希望迪班萨能真正与杨和戴维斯并肩作战——这是弗拉格新秀赛季未能享有的待遇。就目前而言，我估计迪班萨是一名第四层级球员，他将获得大量被委以持球重任的机会，同时身边有球员能在进攻端为他分担防守注意力。迪班萨的防守上限令人垂涎，尤其从理论上讲，他不必承担华盛顿大部分的进攻创造任务而被过度消耗。迪班萨对NBA三分线的适应程度将是一个关键变量——正如当年的弗拉格一样。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：NBA Player Tiers: Which stars are poised to rise — and who could fall?
NBA Player Tiers: Which stars are poised to rise — and who could fall?
In the spring, The Athletic presented the annual NBA Player Tiers, placing 125 players across five tiers. But there is certainly a brighter spotlight for the 30 players in Tiers 1 and 2, essentially the stars who most often decide who contends, who makes the playoffs and ultimately who wins a championship. They are the faces of the league and the best players in the world.
These tiers weren’t designed to be permanent. Age, health, team context, postseason performance and individual development can change a player’s standing quickly.
So with another season beginning, it’s worth asking: Whose stock is most likely to move?
This isn’t an official reordering of the 2026 Player Tiers. Instead, it’s a look at the players with the clearest path upward, the stars with something to prove and the ones most vulnerable to slipping.
When evaluating them, I’m primarily thinking about five questions: How good can that player be? How often can he play? How much can he contribute to winning? How long can he sustain this level? And how does his team context affect all of the above?
With that in mind, here’s what I’ll be watching in 2026-27.
Victor Wembanyama is knocking on the door of our highest sub-tier. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
Mountaintop outlook
My highest sub-tier, 1A, had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić at the top. Gilgeous-Alexander has captured back-to-back NBA MVP awards, with a finals MVP in between, and Jokić is a three-time MVP who has been a First Team All-NBA selection five of the last six years. The one year he wasn’t, 2022-23, he won finals MVP.
Which Tier 1 players could join — or even surpass — those two at the summit? Let’s make a concise case for the rest of them.
Victor Wembanyama(1B) is the obvious candidate. He is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and an MVP finalist who led the team that beat Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals. The NBA Finals showed where Wembanyama still has gains to make, as he shot only 46.6 percent from the field and had as many turnovers (13) as assists in that five-game implosion. The next step is showing how he responds when the games tighten, as he has to consistently get to his kill spot.
Luka Dončić (1B) is the reigning scoring champion, and he’s now the only established star left on his team. The numbers aren’t going anywhere. The questions are whether he can get back to beating the best teams, maintain his fitness and durability after significant absences the last two seasons, and better control his interactions with officials. His one-game suspension for excessive technical fouls nearly cost him award eligibility.
For Anthony Edwards(1C), it’s time to put it all together on both ends of the floor and enter the heart of the MVP discussion, especially now that he has a dynamic point guard to run with in LaMelo Ball.
Giannis Antetokounmpo(1C) was the lone Tier 1 player to change teams, and his fit with Bam Adebayo will be interesting to watch. It’s simple for Antetokounmpo — he’s played in only eight playoff games over the last four springs and has won only one of them. Antetokounmpo has to regain his durability, get the Miami Heat to the playoffs and make an extended run once there.
Cade Cunningham(1D) broke through and showed that he can lead a team to a top seed in the East and a playoff series win. Now comes refinement. His turnovers are abominable, especially in the postseason. Even if Detroit’s front office and coaching staff have a role in the offensive burden Cunningham carries, he has to significantly reduce a career turnover average that has reached 5.6 per game across 20 playoff appearances.
The pressure is on for Jayson Tatum (1D). The best player on the 2024 champion Boston Celtics — though not the finals MVP — now gets the opportunity this season that Jaylen Brown had a year ago: entering a season as his team’s undisputed top option. We saw how good Brown was in that role. Now it’s Tatum’s turn, following another offseason of recovery from his torn right Achilles tendon.
Could Jalen Brunson climb into Tier 1 by the time of our next rankings? (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Knocking on Tier 1
The next part of this discussion is which players could make the jump from Tier 2 to Tier 1. Being that Tier 1 is capped at 10 players, that’s no easy feat. I’m far more likely to drop someone out of Tier 1 than to upgrade someone from Tier 2. With that said, there’s a very obvious breakthrough candidate after how the NBA Finals ended.
Jalen Brunson (2A) is the reigning NBA Finals MVP. He gives an organization one of the most important qualities for a star: the confidence that comes with having already led a team to a championship. What makes Brunson interesting is that he’s 30, and his next First Team All-NBA selection would be his first. Can Brunson dominate over the course of a full season as he did in the 2026 postseason? And what does an encore look like after reaching the mountaintop? He has shown that he is a small-guard exception, and right now, his path to Tier 1 is clear.
While Brunson’s heroics as a small guard were praised, they came at the expense of another small guard I hold in high regard: Donovan Mitchell (2A). The good news is that Mitchell finally reached the conference finals. The bad news is that he still hasn’t won a conference finals game. Mitchell was born a week after Brunson and entered the league a year earlier. At this point, they should be considered contemporaries. Mitchell took the extension bag, and his team is expensive. Now it’s on him to push the Cavaliers further.
Jaylen Brown(2B) got traded to the team that he was last seen losing a 3-1 lead to. Like Brunson, he’s a finals MVP. Brown also showed a high level of performance last season. Now that he is with the Philadelphia 76ers, Brown has an opportunity to be the best two-way star on his new team given his teammates’ limitations. How well he fills that role may determine whether Philadelphia can legitimately contend.
Staying in Philadelphia, Tyrese Maxey (2B) has already shown the intangibles of a special player in the lead guard position, and now he has the Brunson example for what can be done with a special group around him. Maxey has gotten better every year. His numbers may drop for the first time given all the talent Philadelphia has assembled, but if the impact on winning continues to rise, then Maxey could challenge the small-guard theorem, too.
Staying with Tyreses, Tyrese Haliburton (2E) returns to the Indiana Pacers while recovering from Achilles tendon repair. Haliburton was a game away from immortality when he got injured, and his team fell apart with him gone. Now, the Pacers are reloaded. The question is how Haliburton’s return from his right Achilles tendon tear goes, and if the Pacers can get back to where they were during that 2025 Indiana run. Few players have produced a more fearsome playoff stretch than Haliburton did in 2025.
Can LeBron James have Sixers fans smiling this season, especially in the playoffs? (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Something to prove
I don’t think these Tier 2 players actually need to prove anything about their greatness. They’re certified in some significant way, and I don’t see any of them rising into Tier 1 or falling out of Tier 2. But each enters the season with something meaningful at stake.
Kawhi Leonard(2A) is back with the Toronto Raptors and, along with Jaylen Brown, one of only two 2026 All-NBA selections to change teams. Unlike Brown, Leonard hasn’t advanced beyond the first round in the last five years because he hasn’t been on a team that won a playoff series since his 2021 ACL surgery. He seems eager to change that.
Chet Holmgren (2B) joined Wembanyama as the only two players who made both All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. Then Holmgren put on an invisibility cloak in the Western Conference finals. His next assignment is obvious, particularly against the Spurs and Wembanyama.
LeBron James (2B) is on a new team for the first time in nine years, and there’s always an adjustment period for James’ teams. At this stage, the question isn’t whether James can still play at an elite level. It’s how quickly he can figure out what this version of the 76ers needs from him. He won championships in Miami, Cleveland and Los Angeles in his second seasons after changing teams. But at nearly 42 and entering his 24th season, James doesn’t have the luxury of treating this as a traditional transition year.
Evan Mobley (2C) is to the Knicks what Holmgren is to the Spurs: the young two-way big whose development could determine the ceiling of an entire era. The 2025 Defensive Player of the Year is the one blue-chip player from Cleveland’s core who is still in his 20s.
Jalen Williams (2D) was special throughout Oklahoma City’s title run, and then lost much of the following season to wrist surgery on his shooting hand and multiple hamstring strains. Now comes Williams’ chance to get his lick back, especially after the Thunder parted with much of the depth that allowed them to survive Williams’ regular-season absences.
Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are still productive deep into their careers. (Cary Edmondson / Imagn Images)
Vulnerable to fall
I intend to be reasonable about movement within these tiers. Meteoric rises are to be avoided, and so are cliff dives. For these players, the concerns are obvious enough that their standing bears watching.
Stephen Curry (2A) is the standard for small-guard supremacy over the last 50 years. But availability is becoming increasingly difficult to separate from his performance. He has a troublesome right knee that cost him significant time last season and will be 39 before the end of the regular season.
Kevin Durant (2A) hasn’t shown much evidence of decline, and his job should be easier with the Houston Rockets having veteran guards at their disposal. But Durant’s teams have had late-game struggles and postseason struggles for years, and Durant is 38. Will the ballhandling support help snap a seven-game playoff losing streak for Durant and help him win his first playoff series in four years?
The Spurs don’t get past the Thunder in the West finals without De’Aaron Fox (2D), who was playing on a bad ankle. But Fox’s struggles in the NBA Finals would be worth monitoring even if he didn’t play the same position as two other top-five picks on rookie contracts: Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Internally and externally, Fox has some unique circumstances that could change both his role and how he’s evaluated.
James Harden (2D) has made the playoffs in all 17 of his NBA seasons. Having more turnovers than buckets in playoff games once he gets there is something everyone looks out for with Harden, and he had seven such games in the 2026 postseason. Harden is 37, and the challenge is increasingly about workload. How does he balance carrying his team during the regular season while preserving optimal decision-making in the postseason?
Of the 46 players who qualify as stars based on the Player Participation Policy, Joel Embiid(2E) ranks last with an average of 32 games played over the last three years.
Tyler Herro is back in Wisconsin, his home state, but there are many questions surrounding him and the Bucks. (Michael McLoone / Imagn Images)
Wild cards
I considered discussing the entire 3E sub-tier here, but I stand on that analysis of Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young and Ivica Zubac. Here’s to good health for all of them, with Butler’s return not expected until 2027.
Instead, I wanted to look briefly at a handful of players outside of Tiers 1 and 2 whose circumstances have changed dramatically since the spring.
The Milwaukee Bucks got a star player back in the Antetokounmpo trade, and it’s Wisconsin native Tyler Herro (3B). Herro enters the season with the quintuple-whammy of being on a new team, playing for a new coach, being in a contract year, being on a team with low expectations and coming back from an injury-marred season. He can’t get too comfortable.
Brandon Ingram (3B) got traded to the LA Clippers and we all learned that the injury that limited him in the playoffs was a partially torn right Achilles tendon. His May surgery will delay his Clippers’ debut, and when he returns, he’s stepping into the spot vacated by Kawhi Leonard while approaching a decision on his 2027 player option.
Norman Powell (3B) is on his third team in three years, going from the Clippers to the Heat to the Chicago Bulls. Powell used to be a slow starter, but after a hot start to the last two seasons, he has trailed off after the All-Star break. Like Herro and Ingram, Powell (2027 team option) could be a free agent at the end of the season.
Julius Randle(3C) is with the Brooklyn Nets after serving as Anthony Edwards’ primary source of offensive relief the past two seasons. Randle has a 2027 player option that he will decide on after a year of my-turn-your turn with Michael Porter Jr.
Paul George(4C) was traded for Jaylen Brown, and you guessed it, he has a 2027 player option. George’s job this season isn’t to replace Brown, though. It’s to replace the 2025-26 version of Tatum. That’s a reasonable bar given that Tatum played only 22 games last year, including the playoffs, while George has appeared in only 89 games (including playoffs) during the last two seasons.
No. 1 picks
I wanted to end this Player Tiers check-in by looking beyond the established stars and toward two players who could eventually force their way into the conversation: the last two No. 1 draft selections.
Cooper Flagg (3C), the reigning Rookie of the Year, is a player who many will say isn’t getting enough hype or discussion. I don’t operate in hype here, and perhaps a more normal season in Dallas will help clarify what expectations should look like. Flagg’s potential is vast. He’s a highly competitive player who has great positional size and skill. How much a returning star point guard (Kyrie Irving) and a new head coach (Dusty May) help Flagg’s ascent to stardom will be fascinating.
The biggest number to watch is his 3-point percentage, which went from a poor 30.8 percent before the All-Star break down to 27.8 percent after. He was poor off the catch and off the dribble, and his midrange field goal percentage was subpar as well (38 percent). If those numbers jump and stay respectable throughout the season, then Flagg could get scary.
Like Flagg, AJ Dybantsa joins a team with Anthony Davis already on it and a ball-dominant small guard (Trae Young). Unlike Flagg, Dybantsa joins a Washington Wizards team that will never be mistaken for an abundance of hype. But also, hopefully Dybantsa actually gets to play with Young and Davis, a privilege Flagg wasn’t afforded as a rookie. For now, I would estimate Dybantsa as a Tier 4 player, one who will get plenty of opportunities to be relied upon on the ball while having players who can take attention off of him offensively. Dybantsa’s defensive ceiling is enticing, especially since he won’t have to be overtaxed with a majority of Washington’s shot creation in theory. How well Dybantsa adjusts to that NBA 3-point line will be a key swing factor, just like it was with Flagg.
By Law Murray / The Athletic
热评