By Zach Kram, 2026-05-18 19:00:00
自从在 NBA 杯半决赛中那次宿命般的会面以来，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队和圣安东尼奥马刺队就一直处于狭路相逢的态势。
当时，卫冕冠军雷霆队取得了 24 胜 1 负的战绩，看起来不仅有望卫冕，甚至还要挑战单赛季胜场纪录。随后，他们在去年 12 月的拉斯维加斯遇到了维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和异军突起的马刺队。
圣安东尼奥以 2 分优势险胜，随后在该月晚些时候又两次以总计 35 分的优势横扫雷霆。本赛季马刺对阵雷霆的战绩为 4 胜 1 负。
五个月后的今天，这两支年轻的豪强已经到达了迄今为止最重要的战场：西部决赛。这是多年来最令人兴奋的季后赛对决，也是这段新兴宿敌关系中赌注最高的一次，它可能会定义 NBA 接下来十年的格局。
西部决赛将让全票当选的最佳防守球员文班亚马，对阵蝉联 MVP 的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)。这轮系列赛汇聚了可以说目前世界上最好的两名球员、两支最有前途的年轻配角阵容，以及两支最深厚、最均衡的攻防兼备名册。
两支球队都是带着长期的火热状态进入分区决赛的。雷霆在季后赛中拥有惊人的 +16.6 净胜分，而马刺则是 +15.9。
如果不计算主力球员休息的赛季末比赛，雷霆以 19 胜 1 负的战绩结束了常规赛，并在季后赛中保持了 8 胜 0 负的势头。与此同时，马刺在冲刺阶段打出了 30 胜 3 负的战绩，季后赛战绩为 8 胜 3 负。（其中两场失利发生在文班亚马早退的比赛中，第三场则仅输了 2 分。）
为了迎接这轮重磅系列赛，让我们深入探讨最重要的统计数据、趋势、对位以及值得关注的交锋细节。
跳转至相应章节：
为什么这次对决令人惊叹且具有历史意义
马刺能否利用底角优势？
谁来防守文班？
雷霆能破解马刺的防守吗？
最重要的个人对决
为什么转换进攻得分至关重要
两队会做出怎样的阵容调整？
一场历史性的强强对话
主观来说，雷霆（64 胜 18 负）和马刺（62 胜 20 负）的履历使得这成为自 2018 年以来最令人兴奋的季后赛系列赛，当时 65 胜 17 负的休斯顿火箭队试图击败卫冕冠军金州勇士队（后者在凯文·杜兰特加盟的第二个赛季轻松取得了 58 胜 24 负的战绩）。
客观而言，这种级别的碰撞更为罕见。根据 ESPN Research 的数据，西部决赛将是本世纪第一次——也是 NBA 历史上仅有的第七次——两支 62 胜以上的球队在季后赛相遇。
62 胜以上球队之间的季后赛对决
| 系列赛 | 球队 1 | 球队 2 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 分区决赛 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (64-18) | 圣安东尼奥马刺 (62-20) | 待定 |
| 1998 总决赛 | 犹他爵士 (62-20) | 芝加哥公牛 (62-20) | 公牛 4-2 |
| 1997 总决赛 | 芝加哥公牛 (69-13) | 犹他爵士 (64-18) | 公牛 4-2 |
| 1996 总决赛 | 芝加哥公牛 (72-10) | 西雅图超音速 (64-18) | 公牛 4-2 |
| 1985 总决赛 | 波士顿凯尔特人 (63-19) | 洛杉矶湖人 (62-20) | 湖人 4-2 |
| 1981 分区决赛 | 波士顿凯尔特人 (62-20) | 费城 76 人 (62-20) | 凯尔特人 4-3 |
| 1972 分区决赛 | 洛杉矶湖人 (69-13) | 密尔沃基雄鹿 (63-19) | 湖人 4-2 |
这也是历史上第七次——且是自 1997 年总决赛以来的第一次——两支球队在常规赛的场均净胜分都达到 +8 或更高（俄克拉荷马城为 +11.1，而圣安东尼奥为 +8.3）。
此前每一轮 62 胜球队之间的系列赛都至少持续了六场，且往往具有传奇色彩，包括 1998 年迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 在芝加哥公牛队的最后一投、1997 年的流感之战以及埃尔文·“魔术师”·约翰逊 (Magic Johnson) 与拉里·伯德 (Larry Bird) 的对决。1980-81 赛季的分区决赛中，波士顿凯尔特人队在 1-3 落后的情况下逆转击败了费城 76 人队，那轮系列赛有两场比赛仅差 1 分，三场比赛差 2 分。
与老将斯科蒂·皮蓬 (Scottie Pippen)、约翰·斯托克顿 (John Stockton) 和卡尔·马龙 (Karl Malone) 之间的会面不同，马刺与雷霆的对决因参赛者的年轻而显得更加特殊。相比之下，俄克拉荷马城和圣安东尼奥是本赛季赢得季后赛系列赛的球队中最年轻的两支。
八强球队平均年龄
虽然分区决赛球队中的一些替补——哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)、亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) ——已经 30 多岁了，但这轮系列赛 10 名潜在首发球员中最年长的是达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，他只有 28 岁。因此，这次分区决赛可能是未来几年许多此类季后赛对决的开端。
关键的底角三分
底角三分球是马刺进攻的重要组成部分。本赛季他们场均尝试 12.4 次底角三分，是自 1996-97 赛季有详细统计以来所有球队中最多的。他们的命中率达到了 39%。
这种侧重点很好地对位了雷霆的防守，雷霆的防守由于其协防策略往往会漏出底角。这通常是一种非常有效的方法，因为俄克拉荷马城的防守效率已经连续两年领跑全联盟。
但这也是有代价的，雷霆的防守本赛季场均允许对手尝试 11.7 次底角三分，为联盟最高。值得注意的是，达拉斯独行侠在 2023-24 赛季的分区半决赛中利用了这一倾向——那仍然是这支雷霆核心阵容唯一输掉的季后赛系列赛。根据 GeniusIQ 的数据，在 P.J. 华盛顿 (P.J. Washington) 的带领下，达拉斯在那场六场大战中场均投进 6.2 个底角三分，是自 2020 年园区季后赛以来任何系列赛中单支球队最多的。
马刺能以同样的方式占据优势吗？本系列赛的许多回合可能看起来就像本赛季两队首次交锋的第一分钟这样：
— KramClips (@ KramClips) 2026 年 5 月 16 日
圣安东尼奥在常规赛对阵俄克拉荷马城的五场比赛中创造了比平时更多的三分尝试（场均 13.2 次），但命中率仅为 32%。如果能将这种高产量与马刺通常的准星结合起来，将有助于他们的进攻在分区决赛中高效运转。
文班亚马坐镇内线
在对阵雷霆时，有一位马刺球员没有投那些底角三分，那就是文班亚马。事实上，他当时根本没投多少三分。
总体而言，文班亚马本赛季 32% 的投篮尝试是三分球。但在对阵俄克拉荷马城时，这一比例仅为 13%，他的 63 次出手只有 8 次来自远距离。
这是他面对任何对手时最低的三分尝试率。在面对其他所有球队时，这一比例都在 22% 或更高。
雷霆主帅马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 大多选择用侧翼球员防守文班亚马，并辅以大量的协防：根据 GeniusIQ 的追踪，杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)、肯里奇·威廉姆斯 (Kenrich Williams) 和卡鲁索承担了大部分在半场进攻中对位马刺中锋的任务，雷霆在文班亚马 23% 的触球中对他进行了包夹，这是他面对所有防守时的最高包夹率。
雷霆对阵维克托·文班亚马的防守对位
这种分配值得注意，因为肯里奇·威廉姆斯在季后赛总共只打了 16 分钟，而杰伦·威廉姆斯自 4 月 22 日以来因腿筋拉伤一直缺阵。随着杰伦·威廉姆斯被列入分区决赛第一场可出战名单，他似乎是最有可能负责防守文班亚马的人选——但他需要恢复到 100% 的状态才能应对这个极具威胁的对位。
然而，所有的这些准备工作都有一个巨大的变数：正如 ESPN 研究制片人 Matt Williams 所指出的，两队在常规赛的交锋中，文班亚马、切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和以赛亚·哈滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 同时在场的回合总共只有四次，因为文班亚马当时正从左小腿伤势中恢复并担任替补，而雷霆的双塔则是首发出战。而在这四个回合中，有两个是关键时刻结束前的战术犯规或篮板争抢。
换句话说，这里讨论的所有统计数据仅反映了两个回合——两队各一个——使用了本系列赛可能开始时的前场对阵。雷霆的双大个阵容是否会改变他们防守文班亚马的方式，是分区决赛的一个重大问题。
（在那个极小的样本中，俄克拉荷马城仍然让杰伦·威廉姆斯防守文班亚马，而霍姆格伦和哈滕施泰因分别对位侧翼球员朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 和凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)。）
俄克拉荷马城的进攻困境
在另一端，戴格诺特必须弄清楚如何进攻并破解马刺的防守，他的球队在常规赛中很大程度上没能做到这一点。根据 Cleaning the Glass（剔除垃圾时间）的数据，雷霆今年对阵圣安东尼奥时每 100 回合仅得到 109.9 分。作为参考，这个水平在所有球队中仅排在第 29 位。
不出所料，问题出在文班亚马身上。在两队的五次交锋中，圣安东尼奥在文班亚马出场的 126 分钟内净胜 50 分，而在他不在场的 114 分钟内净负 24 分。
这是马刺进入分区决赛最令人鼓舞的一项统计数据：在常规赛对阵俄克拉荷马城时，由于文班亚马在伤愈复出期间有时间限制，他们在他不在场的情况下打的时间几乎和他在场时一样多。而他们仍然赢得了五场对决中的四场。
这种差异很大程度上归功于文班亚马在防守端的影响力。根据 GeniusIQ 的数据，当文班亚马在场时，雷霆的进攻效率为 101.5，而当他不在场时，这一数字为 120.2。这比联盟中最好和最差进攻球队之间的差距还要大。
面对这位 DPOY，没有简单的答案。在投篮干扰次数至少达到 1000 次的 32 名球员中，文班亚马每回合掩护允许得分最低（0.87 分），数据来自 GeniusIQ。
用后卫与后卫之间的掩护作为对策如何？虽然雷霆的进攻在这些战术的总得分上领先全联盟，但马刺每回合仅允许 0.89 分，这是联盟最严密的防守表现。在马刺与雷霆的五场比赛中，这一数字仅为 0.79，雷霆在这些行动中持续产生低质量的投篮机会。
那么单打呢？毕竟，亚历山大是联盟中最好的单打得分手。但当马刺防守 MVP 的主要人选斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 本赛季防守单打时，马刺每回合仅允许 0.85 分，这同样是联盟最好的表现之一。
或者快攻呢？雷霆擅长利用失误打反击。但马刺并不容易失误，常规赛失误率排名联盟第五低，失误丢分排名第三少。
俄克拉荷马城最好的答案可能最简单：投进更多的三分球。
实际上，在常规赛交锋中，雷霆的投篮质量高于马刺，但他们的投篮手感辜负了他们。在三分球方面，根据 GeniusIQ 的投篮质量指标，马刺“应该”投出 35.4% 的命中率，这接近他们实际 36% 的准确率。然而，尽管根据防守距离和投手身份等因素，雷霆对阵马刺时的三分命中率“应该”达到 37.2%，但他们实际仅投出了 33%。
亚历山大必须在分区决赛中投进更多的三分球，他完全有能力做到这一点；在对阵马刺的小样本中，他的命中率仅为 19%，而本赛季的整体命中率为 39%。
雷霆面临的更大问题是，他们的角色球员无法将马刺的防守拉开到外线。在防守端，文班亚马将时间大致平均分配在防守大个子（霍姆格伦、哈滕施泰因和杰林·威廉姆斯）和投射不稳定的外线球员（卡鲁索和卡森·华莱士）之间，他会放空后者，像自由人一样在内线游走。卡鲁索和华莱士在对阵马刺时三分命中率都只有 24%，尽管他们的尝试次数并列全队第一。
文班 vs. 切特
在这两支球队的大战中，这将是一场引人入胜的个人对决。
即使只有 20 出头，这两名球员在进入本系列赛之前已经有了深厚的渊源。在 2021 年一场紧张的 U19 国际篮联世界杯决赛中，霍姆格伦的球队击败了文班亚马的球队，美国人赢得了锦标赛 MVP 荣誉，而法国人则犯满离场。随后，文班亚马击败霍姆格伦，获得了 2024 年全票当选的最佳新秀和本赛季的全票 DPOY 奖杯；霍姆格伦两次都屈居第二。
在本赛季的正面交锋中，霍姆格伦远未达到文班亚马的水平。在对阵马刺的四场比赛中，霍姆格伦场均仅得到 10.5 分（面对任何对手的第二低分），命中率为 39%（同样是第二低），使用率为 16%（面对任何对手的最低值）。
在之前的比赛被彻底限制后，他必须在季后赛的对决中更多地参与进来并发挥作用。好消息是，他在进入分区决赛时进攻状态正佳；根据 ESPN Research 的数据，在季后赛前两轮中，他在 5 英尺以内的投篮命中率达到了惊人的 97%（38 投 37 中）。
坏消息是，在文班亚马面前完成终结将比在奥索·伊戈达罗 (Oso Ighodaro) 和德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 面前困难得多。文班亚马在今年季后赛中将对手 5 英尺以内的命中率限制在了 28%。
转换进攻时间
由于两支球队都拥有如此稳固的半场防守——根据 Cleaning the Glass 的数据，雷霆在常规赛中半场防守效率领跑全联盟，而马刺在季后赛中则遥遥领先排名第一——转换进攻得分在这轮系列赛中可能至关重要。在文班亚马、霍姆格伦、卡斯尔、吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort) 以及他们所有入选最佳防守阵容级别的队友落位之前，两支球队的进攻都会寻找快攻机会。
大量错位防守的存在只会加强这一趋势。通常在常规赛中，卡斯尔更倾向于防守亚历山大，但亚历山大在另一端更倾向于防守德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)。瓦塞尔更倾向于防守多尔特，而多尔特更倾向于防守福克斯。福克斯更倾向于防守杰伦·威廉姆斯，而杰伦·威廉姆斯更倾向于防守文班亚马，以此类推。
如此多的错位防守可能会在快速转换球权期间导致混乱、错位和机会，而圣安东尼奥在常规赛中赢得了这场小规模战斗。
雷霆拥有联盟最好的转换防守，因为他们很少失误，而且他们允许对手在抢到篮板后的转换进攻率最低，数据来自 Cleaning the Glass。但在对阵马刺时，这一优势下降到了平均水平，因为圣安东尼奥成功且独特地推快了节奏。
雷霆的对手很少能将防守篮板转化为另一端的快速上篮，但福克斯、卡斯尔和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在这种情况下始终能比雷霆球员更快进入禁区。
— KramClips (@ KramClips) 2026 年 5 月 15 日
阵容变阵与调整
不要完全迷信两队之间常规赛结果的一个原因是，俄克拉荷马城在那些比赛中很少阵容齐整。华莱士和亚伦·威金斯 (Aaron Wiggins) 是仅有的参加了全部五场对阵圣安东尼奥比赛的雷霆球员。相比之下，除了哈珀、瓦塞尔和卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 各打了四场外，马刺的每一位核心球员都打满了五场。
如果现在能获得更多对阵马刺的上场时间，有两名后卫尤其能为俄克拉荷马城带来改变。第一位是阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)，他错过了球队 12 月对阵圣安东尼奥的两场惨败。在他出场的两次交锋中，雷霆取得了 1 胜 1 负，包括一场大胜和一场 2 分惜败。
贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 的存在也可能至关重要——本赛季所有的马刺对阵雷霆的比赛都发生在他在交易截止日加入俄克拉荷马城之前。作为雷霆的一员，他在常规赛和季后赛的三分命中率达到了 41%。麦凯恩在防守端比戴格诺特轮换阵容中的任何其他球员都更容易成为目标，但如果他的队友像常规赛失利时那样错失空位三分，他可以作为替补席上的即时空间点提供火力。
在马刺方面，自 12 月以来最显著的阵容变化是尚帕尼升入首发阵容，取代了巴恩斯。这很重要，因为霍姆格伦在常规赛交锋的大部分时间里都与巴恩斯对位，这使他能够作为底线协防者四处游走。尚帕尼是一个更危险的投手，不能轻易放空。
尽管如此，随着杰伦·威廉姆斯的回归，戴格诺特比马刺主帅米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 拥有更多的阵容选择和灵活性。雷霆可以同时派出一名或两名大个子；他们可以排出全防守阵容，或者让亚历山大、米切尔和一个投手搭档。相反，马刺的轮换模式似乎基本固定，而圣安东尼奥本赛季季后赛唯一一次显著的变阵——在明尼苏达的第四场失利中，球队在最后时刻采取了超小阵容——是出于无奈，因为文班亚马被驱逐出场。
这种差距在漫长、反复且需要在赛前和赛中进行战略调整的系列赛中可能会产生影响。
同样，俄克拉荷马城去年在对阵丹佛和印第安纳的七场大战中获得的经验也可能发挥作用。相比之下，马刺的这支核心阵容从未在如此高强度的比赛中与如此顶级的对手竞争过。这种经验不足的影响有多大——以及与雷霆更优秀的整体履历相比，马刺在常规赛的统治力有多大影响——仍有待观察。
这两支球队之间——希望是——另外七场对决的第一场将在周一晚上进行。让比赛开始吧。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Seven trends that could decide historic Thunder-Spurs series
Seven trends that could decide historic Thunder-Spurs series
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have been on a collision course ever since a fateful meeting in the NBA Cup semifinals.
At the time, the defending champion Thunder were 24-1, seemingly poised not only to repeat but to set the single-season wins record, too. Then they ran into Victor Wembanyama and the upstart Spurs in Las Vegas last December.
San Antonio sneaked out a two-point win, then steamrolled the Thunder twice more by a combined 35 points later that month. The Spurs were 4-1 against the Thunder this season.
Now, five months later, the two young juggernauts have reached their most important battlefield to date: the Western Conference finals. It’s the most exciting playoff matchup in years and the greatest stakes yet in a budding rivalry that could define the rest of this decade in the NBA.
The Western Conference finals will pit the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, Wembanyama, against the back-to-back MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This series features arguably the two best players in the world, the two most promising young supporting casts and the two deepest, most balanced two-way rosters.
Both teams enter the conference finals on lengthy hot streaks. The Thunder have a superb plus-16.6 point differential in the playoffs, while the Spurs are plus-15.9.
Not counting end-of-season games in which star players rested, the Thunder finished the regular season on a 19-1 run, and they’ve continued with an 8-0 march through the playoffs. The Spurs, meanwhile, went on a 30-3 run down the stretch, and they’re 8-3 in the playoffs. (Two of their losses came in games when Wembanyama left early, and the third came by two points.)
To prepare for a blockbuster series, let’s dive deep into the most important stats, trends, matchups and head-to-head nuggets to know.
Jump to a section:
Why this matchup is amazing – and historic
Can the Spurs take advantage in the corners?
Who’s going to guard Wemby?
Can the Thunder figure out the Spurs’ D?
The most important individual battle
Why transition scoring could prove vital
What lineup wrinkles will each team make?
A historic clash of titans
Subjectively speaking, the Thunder’s (64-18) and Spurs’ (62-20) résumés make this the most exciting playoff series at least since 2018, when the 65-17 Houston Rockets attempted to take down the defending champion Golden State Warriors (who’d coasted to a 58-24 record in their second season with Kevin Durant).
Objectively, this kind of clash is even more rare. The Western Conference finals will be the first playoff matchup this century – and just the seventh in NBA history – between teams with 62-plus wins, according to ESPN Research.
Playoff Matchups Between Teams With 62+ Wins
| Series | Team 1 | Team 2 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 conference finals | Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) | San Antonio Spurs (62-20) | TBD |
| 1998 Finals | Utah Jazz (62-20) | Chicago Bulls (62-20) | Bulls 4-2 |
| 1997 Finals | Chicago Bulls (69-13) | Utah Jazz (64-18) | Bulls 4-2 |
| 1996 Finals | Chicago Bulls (72-10) | Seattle SuperSonics (64-18) | Bulls 4-2 |
| 1985 Finals | Boston Celtics (63-19) | Los Angeles Lakers (62-20) | Lakers 4-2 |
| 1981 conference finals | Boston Celtics (62-20) | Philadelphia 76ers (62-20) | Celtics 4-3 |
| 1972 conference finals | Los Angeles Lakers (69-13) | Milwaukee Bucks (63-19) | Lakers 4-2 |
It’s also only the seventh playoff matchup – and the first since the 1997 Finals – in which both teams had a plus-8 point differential or better in the regular season (Oklahoma City had a plus-11.1, while San Antonio had a plus-8.3).
Every previous series between 62-win teams lasted at least six games, and they were often legendary, including such memorable events as Michael Jordan’s last shot with the Chicago Bulls in 1998, the Flu Game in 1997 and a Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird duel. The 1980-81 conference finals saw the Boston Celtics come back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Philadelphia 76ers in a series that featured two games decided by one point each and three by two points apiece.
Spurs-Thunder is made even more special by its participants’ youth, unlike meetings between veterans Jordan, Scottie Pippen, John Stockton and Karl Malone. In contrast, Oklahoma City and San Antonio are by far the two youngest teams to win a playoff round this season.
Average Age for Final Eight Teams
While some reserves from the conference finalists – Harrison Barnes, Alex Caruso and Luke Kornet – are in their 30s, the oldest of the 10 likely starters in this series is De’Aaron Fox, who’s 28. So this conference finals might be the first of many such playoff showdowns in the coming years.
Crucial corner 3s
Corner 3-pointers are a major component of the Spurs’ offense. They attempted 12.4 corner 3s per game this season, the most for any team in the entire play-by-play era (since 1996-97). They made them at a 39% clip.
That emphasis matches well against the Thunder’s defense, which tends to leave the corners open because of its help tactics. It’s generally a quite effective approach, as Oklahoma City has led the league in defensive rating two years in a row.
But it does come with a cost, and the Thunder’s defense allowed a league-high 11.7 corner 3-point attempts per game this season. Notably, the Dallas Mavericks exploited this tendency in the 2023-24 conference semifinals – which remains the only playoff series this Thunder core has lost. Led by P.J. Washington, Dallas made 6.2 corner 3s per game in that six-game thriller, per GeniusIQ, the most for any team in any series since the 2020 bubble playoffs.
Could the Spurs take advantage in the same way? A lot of possessions in this series could look like this one, from the first minute of the first meeting between the teams this season:
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 16, 2026
San Antonio generated even more 3-point attempts than usual in its five regular-season contests against Oklahoma City (13.2 per game) but made just 32% of them. Combining that heavy volume with the Spurs’ usual accuracy would help their offense hum in the conference finals.
Wemby in the middle
One Spur who wasn’t taking those corner 3s against the Thunder was Wembanyama. In fact, he wasn’t taking many 3s at all.
Overall, 32% of Wembanyama’s shot attempts this season were 3-pointers. But against Oklahoma City, that figure was just 13%, with only eight of his 63 shots coming from distance.
That was by far his lowest 3-point attempt rate against any opponent. He was at 22% or higher against every other team.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault mostly chose to guard Wembanyama with wings and send a heavy dose of help: Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams and Caruso received the bulk of the half-court matchups against the Spurs center, per GeniusIQ tracking, and the Thunder doubled Wembanyama on 23% of his touches, which was his highest rate against any defense.
Thunder’s Defensive Matchups Against Victor Wembanyama
That distribution is notable because Kenrich Williams has played 16 total minutes in the playoffs and Jalen Williams hasn’t played since April 22 because of a hamstring strain. With Jalen Williams listed as available for Game 1 of the conference finals, he seems the most likely candidate to draw the Wembanyama assignment – but he’ll need to be at 100% to handle that imposing matchup.
There’s one huge caveat to all of this prep work, however: As ESPN research producer Matt Williams noted, the regular-season corpus between the teams included just four total possessions with Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein all on the court together because Wembanyama was coming off the bench as he worked his way back from a left calf injury while the Thunder pair started together. And two of those four possessions were intentional fouls or rebounds at the end of a close game.
In other words, all of the stats discussed here reflect just two possessions – one from each team – with the frontcourt alignment that will likely begin this series. Whether the Thunder’s two-big look changes how they defend Wembanyama is a major question for the conference finals.
(Oklahoma City still had Jalen Williams defend Wembanyama in that minuscule sample, while Holmgren and Hartenstein matched up with wings Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson, respectively.)
OKC’s offensive dilemma
On the other end, Daigneault must figure out how to attack and score on the Spurs, which his team was largely unable to do in the regular season. The Thunder scored 109.9 points per 100 possessions against San Antonio this year, according to Cleaning the Glass, which removes garbage time. For context, that mark would’ve ranked 29th among all teams.
The problem was, unsurprisingly, Wembanyama. In the five meetings between the two teams, San Antonio was plus-50 in Wembanyama’s 126 minutes and minus-24 in 114 minutes without him.
This is the single most encouraging stat for the Spurs as they enter the conference finals: Against Oklahoma City in the regular season, they played almost as many minutes without their best player as with him, because he was on a minutes limit in his return from injury. And they still won four of five meetings.
That difference was largely due to Wembanyama’s impact on the defensive end. The Thunder had a 101.5 offensive rating with Wembanyama on the floor, versus a 120.2 offensive rating without him, per GeniusIQ. That’s greater than the difference between the best and worst offenses in the league.
There are no easy answers against the DPOY. Among 32 players who defended at least 1,000 screens this season, Wembanyama allowed the fewest points per pick (0.87), per GeniusIQ.
What about guard-guard picks as a counter? While the Thunder offense led the league in total points off these plays, the Spurs allowed just 0.89 points per guard-guard pick, which was the league’s stingiest mark. In the five Spurs-Thunder games, that figure was 0.79, with the Thunder consistently generating low-quality looks out of these actions.
What about isolations? After all, Gilgeous-Alexander is the best one-on-one scorer in the league. But when Stephon Castle – San Antonio’s primary defender against the MVP – defended an isolation this season, the Spurs allowed 0.85 points per play, which was, again, one of the best marks in the league.
Or what about fast breaks? The Thunder thrive off turnovers when they can get out and run. But the Spurs aren’t prone to giveaways, ranking fifth in the regular season in lowest turnover rate and third in fewest points off turnovers.
The best answer for Oklahoma City might be the simplest: make more 3-pointers.
The Thunder actually had a higher shot quality than the Spurs in their regular-season meetings, but their shotmaking let them down. On 3-pointers, the Spurs “should” have made 35.4%, according to GeniusIQ’s shot quality metrics, which is close to their actual 36% accuracy. Yet while the Thunder “should” have made 37.2% of their 3s against the Spurs, based on factors such as defender distance and shooter identity, they hit 33%.
Gilgeous-Alexander has to make more of his 3s in the conference finals, and he’s eminently capable of doing so; he was at only 19% in a small sample against the Spurs, versus 39% overall this season.
The bigger issue for the Thunder is that their role players were unable to stretch the Spurs’ defense out to the perimeter. On defense, Wembanyama split his time roughly evenly between bigs (Holmgren, Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams) and shaky-shooting perimeter players (Caruso and Cason Wallace), whom he’d leave open to roam as free safeties inside. Caruso and Wallace both made just 24% of their 3s against the Spurs, even as they tied for the team lead in attempts.
Wemby vs. Chet
This will be a fascinating individual battle amid the larger war between these teams.
Even in their early 20s, the two players already have plenty of history leading into this series. Holmgren’s team beat Wembanyama’s in a tense U19 FIBA World Cup final in 2021, with the American winning tournament MVP honors while the Frenchman fouled out. Then Wembanyama beat Holmgren for unanimous Rookie of the Year honors in 2024 and a unanimous DPOY trophy this season; Holmgren finished in second place both times.
Holmgren was nowhere close to Wembanyama’s level in their head-to-head matchups this season. In four games against the Spurs, Holmgren averaged just 10.5 points (his second lowest against any opponent) on 39% shooting (also second lowest), with a 16% usage rate (his lowest against any opponent).
He must be more involved and effective in the playoff matchup after being so thoroughly taken out of those earlier games. The good news is that he enters the conference finals on an offensive tear; through two rounds in the playoffs, he’s shooting a remarkable 97% (37 of 38) on shots inside 5 feet, per ESPN Research.
The bad news is that finishing against Wembanyama will be significantly more difficult than finishing against Oso Ighodaro and Deandre Ayton. Wembanyama has held opponents to a 28% mark inside 5 feet this postseason.
Transition time
Because both teams boast such stout half-court defenses – the Thunder led the league in half-court defensive rating in the regular season, per Cleaning the Glass, while the Spurs rank No. 1 by a mile in the playoffs – scoring in transition could prove vital in this series. The two offenses will hunt quick-strike baskets before Wembanyama, Holmgren, Castle, Luguentz Dort and all of their All-Defense-caliber teammates can get set.
The likely presence of so many cross-matches will only strengthen this trend. Generally, in the regular season, Castle preferred to guard Gilgeous-Alexander, but Gilgeous-Alexander preferred to guard Devin Vassell on the other end. Vassell preferred to guard Dort, but Dort preferred to guard Fox. Fox preferred to guard Jalen Williams, but Jalen Williams preferred to guard Wembanyama, and so on.
So many cross-matches can result in confusion, mismatches and opportunities during quick changes in possession, and San Antonio won that mini-battle in the regular season.
The Thunder have the best transition defense in the league, because they rarely commit turnovers and they allow the lowest transition rate off rebounds, per Cleaning the Glass. But against the Spurs, that strength dropped to merely average, as San Antonio successfully and uniquely pushed the pace.
It’s not often that Thunder opponents turn defensive rebounds into quick layups on the other end, but Fox, Castle and Dylan Harper consistently beat the Thunder into the paint in that situation.
— KramClips (@ KramClips) May 15, 2026
Lineup wrinkles and alterations
One reason not to place absolute faith in the regular-season results between these teams is that Oklahoma City was rarely whole for those games. Wallace and Aaron Wiggins were the only Thunder players to appear in all five games against San Antonio. For comparison, every key Spur played all five games except for Harper, Vassell and Carter Bryant, who played four apiece.
Two guards in particular could make a difference for Oklahoma City, if they receive more playing time against the Spurs now. The first is Ajay Mitchell, who missed his team’s two blowout losses to San Antonio in December. In the two meetings he appeared in, the Thunder went 1-1 with a blowout win and two-point loss.
Jared McCain’s presence could also be crucial – every Spurs-Thunder game this season came before he joined Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. He has made 41% of his 3s as a member of the Thunder, counting regular season and playoffs. McCain is more of a target on defense than any of the other players in Daigneault’s rotation, but if his teammates are missing open 3s like they did in their regular-season losses, he could provide a spark with instant spacing off the bench.
On the Spurs’ end, the most notable lineup change since December is the elevation of Champagnie to the starting lineup, replacing Barnes. That’s important because Holmgren spent most of the regular-season meetings matched up against Barnes, which allowed him to roam as a back-line help defender. Champagnie is a more dangerous shooter to leave open.
Still, with Jalen Williams back, Daigneault has more lineup options and versatility than Spurs coach Mitch Johnson. The Thunder can go with one big or two at a time; they can play all-defense lineups or use Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell and a shooter together. Conversely, the Spurs’ rotational pattern seems mostly set, and the one time San Antonio notably deviated this postseason – when the team went super small down the stretch in a Game 4 loss in Minnesota – was out of necessity, after Wembanyama was ejected.
That disparity could matter in a long, back-and-forth series that requires strategic adjustments between and within games.
So, too, could the experience Oklahoma City gained with its seven-game wins against Denver and Indiana last year. In contrast, this Spurs core has never competed in games with such stakes, against such an elite opponent. How much that inexperience matters – and how much their regular-season dominance matters, when compared with the Thunder’s superior résumé overall – remains to be seen.
The first of – hopefully – seven more clashes between these teams is Monday night. Let the games begin.
By Zach Kram, via ESPN