By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-04-17 09:00:20
“一切皆有可能！”
每当NBA季后赛拉开帷幕，这总是大家最爱挂在嘴边的一句话。而在近几年，这句话比以往任何时候都更接近现实。在后疫情时代的NBA，夺冠热门变得异常脆弱：排名第五、第六、第七甚至第八的球队都至少打进过分区决赛；2023年，八号种子迈阿密热火队夺得东部冠军；2025年，四号种子印第安纳步行者队距离总冠军仅半场之遥。
从长期平均水平来看，在15轮系列赛中，没有主场优势而最终胜出的球队通常不足4支。但过去六个赛季的情况大不相同：共有31支没有主场优势的球队晋级，平均每年约5.2支。这包括上赛季有5支没有主场优势的球队赢下系列赛，以及过去三年中出现的18次“下克上”。
出于某种诡异的原因，第二轮成了“冷门的温床”。在过去24轮分区半决赛中，拥有主场优势的球队仅赢下了其中的9轮！上赛季，两支60胜球队（克利夫兰、波士顿）在第二轮被淘汰，而第三支（俄克拉荷马城）则苦战七场才惊险过关。
尽管如此，这一次我预计局势会更符合排名预期。两支球队在整个赛季都统治了西部联盟，赔率似乎也极度看好其中之一将成为最终的冠军。从历史上看，过去45年里一直遵循着一条准则（除了1995年那个显眼的例外）：如果你不是前三号种子，且没有在常规赛取得至少52胜以及至少+3.0的净胜分（缩水赛季按比例折算），你就无法夺冠。
本赛季符合这一条件的球队共有六支：俄克拉荷马城雷霆、圣安东尼奥马刺、丹佛掘金、底特律活塞、波士顿凯尔特人和纽约尼克斯。可以公平地说，如果最终冠军不是这六支球队之一，那将是一个巨大的意外，或许克利夫兰骑士可以被视为一匹潜在的黑马。洛杉矶湖人近期的伤病情况让这一论点更加成立。
我们的第一轮季后赛可能确实会有些平淡：湖人与休斯顿火箭之间潜在的强强对话，现在由于卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的伤病，似乎变成了一场实力悬殊的较量；而另外至少三场系列赛也存在着压倒性的天赋差距。尽管如此，一旦进入第二轮，情况可能会再次变得极其有趣，而西部决赛则可能成为史诗级的对决。
在查看我的“预言水晶球”之前，让我们先对我对比2025年的预测进行一下简单的复盘：我猜对了八轮首轮系列赛中的六轮，也猜对了“雷霆夺冠”的部分……但哎呀，第二轮的表现简直惨不忍睹。在15个预测位中对掉9个，考虑到按排名晋级的结果也是9个，这表现不算差，但让我们看看这次能否有所进步。
东部首轮
(1) 底特律 vs. (8) 夏洛特/奥兰多
夏洛特黄蜂的实力足以赢下底特律活塞这种级别的系列赛，但我不知道黄蜂的打法是否克制活塞。活塞在常规赛的三次交锋中全部获胜，且只有一场比分接近。当你对比两队阵容时，原因便显而易见了。
夏洛特没有能对位凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 的防守者，而且在面对活塞的内线硬汉时，他们体型上的劣势在防守篮板保护上是个大问题。活塞还拥有足够优秀的防守者，可以在不崩溃的情况下应对黄蜂空间拉开、侧重投射的阵容。这还只是首发阵容的情况；一旦进入替补轮换，活塞将拥有巨大优势。我还是希望黄蜂能晋级，因为这两支球队非常不对付。
至于奥兰多……唉。奥兰多魔术本赛季的表现令人大失所望，但如果他们能战胜黄蜂，他们有机会让局势变得有趣。魔术在与活塞的四次交锋中平分秋色，甚至在11月的一场比赛中，尽管三分球30投仅5中，依然在底特律赢了球。他们的体型和首发阵容理论上的上限让他们拥有一线生机。随着弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 的回归，魔术终于恢复了全强阵容。如果他们能保证前八名轮换球员留在场上，就能排出扎实的阵容。
虽然我认为底特律被轻视了，人们还没意识到这支球队有多优秀，但我也认为活塞在第一轮会遭遇真正的挑战。预测：活塞在6场内战胜其中任何对手
(2) 波士顿 vs. (7) 费城 (前瞻)
费城76人在赛季初期与波士顿凯尔特人进行了三场硬仗并赢下了两场，哪怕乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 只在其中一场发挥了重要作用。在本赛季的四次交锋中，尽管76人方面的投篮命中率相当难看，但他们仍能充分限制波士顿的进攻，从而为自己争取机会。保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 的回归也增加了一名优秀的侧翼防守者，有助于应对杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)。
话虽如此，在没有恩比德且塔图姆回到波士顿阵中的情况下，天赋差距是显而易见的。如果恩比德出战而塔图姆仍在养伤，这对费城来说会是一个有利的对阵；但在目前相反的情况下，这感觉就像是费城的后卫们在试图冲击对方重兵把守的防线，这将是一段漫长而艰难的旅程。预测：波士顿5场晋级
老鹰过去在防守卡尔-安东尼·唐斯时一直很吃力。(Lucas Boland / Imagn Images)
(3) 纽约 vs. (6) 亚特兰大 (前瞻)
亚特兰大老鹰在赛季中期交易来CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 后便一飞冲天，他们的新首发五人组打出了惊人的+20.3净效率。即便考虑到赛季末赛程中有些对手实力较弱，这个数字依然令人瞩目。更具可持续性的数据是，即使在整个赛季中，麦科勒姆与其他四名首发——杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)、尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)、戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 和奥涅卡·奥孔古 (Onyeka Okongwu)——共同在场时，每百回合净胜分为+7.0。
这与纽约尼克斯由卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 和杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 组成的四人核心仅+2.8的平庸表现形成了鲜明对比。尼克斯的名气更大，但老鹰的核心球员表现更好。
那么，为什么我还是预测纽约会胜出？原因有两个：替补席和篮板。尼克斯的替补阵容整个赛季都拥有巨大优势，米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)、迈尔斯·麦克布莱德 (Miles McBride)、何塞·阿尔瓦拉多 (Jose Alvarado) 和兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 都做出了重大贡献。与此同时，罗宾逊和唐斯统治了篮板球，而老鹰在非奥孔古在场时的阵容在篮板端被彻底击溃。
相比之下，亚特兰大的第二阵容充其量还处于磨合阶段。乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 在约翰逊休息的时间里展现了一些可靠的得分能力，但除此之外，情况看起来很糟糕。盖布·文森特 (Gabe Vincent) 获得了两位数的出场时间，他的职责基本就是“别把比赛搞砸”，而且在乔克·兰代尔 (Jock Landale) 从赛季末的脚踝扭伤中恢复之前，球队几乎没有替补中锋。扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher) 和科里·基斯珀特 (Corey Kispert) 也在根据前一场谁表现更差而交替进入伤停名单。
情况已经紧迫到让我怀疑老鹰是否会启用巴迪·希尔德 (Buddy Hield)。希尔德在交易截止日从金州勇士加盟后就莫名其妙地被“雪藏”了，但在常规赛收官战对阵迈阿密的比赛中，他终于得到了机会，在21分钟内命中7记三分砍下31分。
两队最后一次交锋是4月初尼克斯在亚特兰大以108-105获胜，那场比赛已经有了季后赛的氛围。尼克斯的首发赢得了他们的对位时间，但老鹰赢得了篮板大战，哪怕罗宾逊在19分钟内抢下了12个篮板。
尽管如此，我认为这对纽约来说是一个不错的对阵。老鹰在面对唐斯时一直很吃力，唐斯对奥孔古有着巨大的体型优势，而阿奴诺比则是限制老鹰全能球星约翰逊的绝佳人选。尼克斯将挺过这一关。预测：尼克斯6场晋级
(4) 克利夫兰 vs. (5) 多伦多 (前瞻)
骑士队是一支令人费解的球队：纸面实力极其出众，但在赛季大部分时间里都表现不及预期。扣除对阵摆烂球队的比赛，克利夫兰即便在交易截止日得到詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 以及麦克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus) 伤愈回归后，看起来依然不太稳。虽然克利夫兰派出的首发五人组将是全赛季最强的，但对于在常规赛三次交锋中全部击败他们的多伦多猛龙来说，情况也是如此。
问题在于：克利夫兰的阵容非常“头重脚轻”，首发球员在场时，整个赛季都保持着接近两位数的净效率优势。相比之下，多伦多的首发阵容并没有那么出色。斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)、伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 和布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 三人组共同出场1203分钟，净效率仅为微弱的+3.9。猛龙最大的优势在于贾马尔·谢德 (Jamal Shead) 和桑德罗·马穆凯拉什维利 (Sandro Mamukelashvili) 对阵对方替补席的表现，但在季后赛中，替补球员的出场时间会缩减，这种优势无法被放大。
相比之下，骑士队有很多负贡献的时间来自于那些要么已经离队，要么在系列赛中角色微乎其微的球员——尽管他们执着于让丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schröder) 每晚打满20分钟，这让我有点担心。
从历史上看，五号种子在首轮获胜的概率接近一半，而且在常规赛交锋中占优的下位球队表现通常更好。我绝对认为这轮系列赛存在“下克上”的可能性，但天赋差距实在太大了。预测：骑士6场晋级
西部首轮
(1) 雷霆 vs. (8) 勇士/太阳
得益于NBA杯，俄克拉荷马城在常规赛与菲尼克斯太阳交手了五次，并输掉了两场；然而，其中一场是太阳在毫无意义的第82场常规赛中大胜佩顿·桑德福特 (Payton Sandfort) 和布鲁克斯·巴恩海泽 (Brooks Barnhizer) 领衔的阵容。
菲尼克斯是一个有趣的对手，因为太阳有多个防守者可以轮番限制谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)——他的加拿大同胞狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 可能会首先主防，随后瑞安·邓恩 (Ryan Dunn) 和乔丹·古德温 (Jordan Goodwin) 轮流上阵。此外，太阳的三分投射是克制雷霆防守（通过放三分来压迫失误）的良药。到周日，太阳也应该接近全强阵容，格雷森·阿伦 (Grayson Allen)（他打出了联盟最被低估的赛季之一）很可能从腿筋伤势中回归。
即便如此，太阳在常规赛中曾分别以49分和27分的劣势输给俄克拉荷马城。而雷霆在常规赛期间一直饱受轻微伤病困扰，在季后赛也应该能恢复全强阵容。
如果对手是金州勇士，那只能祝他们好运了。雷霆在常规赛四次击败勇士，分差分别为24分、12分、37分和7分。在吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 缺阵的情况下，拥有斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porziņģis) 的勇士已是倾其所有，但勇士爱鲁莽失误的倾向在面对下手极快的雷霆时绝非好兆头。预测：雷霆4场横扫勇士；雷霆5场战胜太阳
(2) 圣安东尼奥 vs. (7) 波特兰 (前瞻)
如果这轮系列赛打得很焦灼，请不要感到惊讶。两队常规赛的三场交锋都极具竞争力，尽管维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺席了其中两场。开拓者甚至在伤兵满营的情况下在圣安东尼奥赢过球，当时他们阵中只有四名会在本系列赛轮换的球员（凯莱布·洛夫 (Caleb Love)、西迪·西索科 (Sidy Cissoko)、拉扬·鲁珀特 (Rayan Rupert) 和杨瀚森 (Yang Hansen) 那晚总共打了75分钟）。
波特兰目前阵容齐整，全队上下都有顶级防守者，并在周二对阵太阳的关键时刻祭出了杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 打中锋的阵容，让太阳束手无策（“停止使用斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson)”的调整也起到了作用）。德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 在对阵太阳时表现得像个怪兽，这位身材高大、球风硬朗的前锋能持球不断冲击篮筐，对马刺那些体型较小的侧翼来说是个棘手的对位。而且开拓者也有足够的体型，至少有机会在面对文班亚马时博弈一番。
开拓者的软肋在于缺乏投射，这在面对一支将篮下变为禁飞区的球队时尤为致命；此外，他们在非阿夫迪亚在场时的得分能力依然匮乏。但波特兰能走到这里，本身就已经是在“赢利”了。预测：马刺5场晋级
安东尼·爱德华兹和森林狼对季后赛在丹佛打球并不陌生。(Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
(3) 丹佛 vs. (6) 明尼苏达 (前瞻)
从纸面上看，这是首轮最精彩的系列赛，两支高水准、基本健康的球队此前已有过多次交手。但实际上，我不确定这对丹佛来说会有多难。
尽管掘金在本赛季经历了多次伤病，但他们在四次交锋中赢了三次，而且看起来比状态摇摆的森林狼更适应季后赛。另一方面，明尼苏达已经连续两年打进分区决赛，曾在2024年击败丹佛晋级，并在2025年以六号种子身份突围。显然，历史战绩对森林狼有利。
尽管如此，这可能是掘金在尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 身边配置最完整的阵容，包括一个在他下场后不会立即崩盘的替补席。明尼苏达的深度这次看起来更不可靠，首发阵容的差距也很深远：森林狼最常用的五人组本赛季每百回合净胜+7.9；而丹佛的这一数据是惊人的+13.5。
我很期待看到场上的较量，但最终，丹佛过关可能会比人们预想的要容易一些。预测：掘金5场晋级
(4) 洛杉矶湖人 vs. (5) 休斯顿 (前瞻)
当东契奇和里夫斯在4月初相继受伤并可能缺席本轮系列赛时，湖人的季后赛希望就蒙上了阴影。湖人依然拥有主场优势，或许还能靠勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的老当益壮配合休斯顿火箭莫名其妙的第四节进攻来偷下一场胜利。然而，湖人的伤病暴露了NBA最烂的替补席之一。火箭将拥有压倒性的场上天赋优势，如果他们没能晋级，那将成为一个重大新闻。预测：火箭5场晋级
东部半决赛
(1) 底特律 vs. (4) 克利夫兰
我很喜欢这支活塞队，但我并不看好这次对决。克利夫兰整个赛季在对阵活塞时都显得游刃有余，11月在底特律痛击了对手，随后又赢下了几场比分接近的比赛。常规赛交锋战绩为2-2，但骑士拥有+18的得分优势，而且这还是在多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 缺席了两场比赛的情况下取得的。
活塞面临的核心问题是：他们如何在面对克利夫兰由埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 组成的双塔时得分？活塞在四场比赛中的进攻效率都没有达到联盟平均水平，平均仅为104，这比布鲁克林篮网排名联盟第30位的进攻还要差5分。
骑士最好的四名球员虽然只共同打了7场比赛和92分钟，但那段时间的净效率高达惊人的+26.7。如果你想要更大的样本量，米切尔-阿伦-莫布里三人组共同打了36场比赛，净效率为稳健的+10.0。这虽然比活塞顶级球员在场时的表现稍逊一筹，但差距并不大：康宁汉姆-杰伦·杜伦-奥萨尔·汤普森三人组的净效率为+12.3。
底特律在常规赛对阵克利夫兰的主要优势在于那些在季后赛无关痛痒的球员。骑士在经历伤病和交易期间使用过的平庸球员大多不会上场；同样，底特律拥有联盟最强的第三中锋，但他可能一分钟也打不上。
考虑到这些因素以及对活塞极其不利的对位，我要大胆预测骑士胜出。预测：克利夫兰6场晋级
(2) 波士顿 vs. (3) 纽约
尼克斯对阵波士顿感到非常自信，以至于他们根本没打算为了避开对手而掉到第四种子。我理解这种自信：纽约上赛季对阵凯尔特人四战三胜，并在关键时刻击败了他们；相比之下，活塞本赛季曾三次痛击尼克斯。
这次对决在某些方面对纽约有利，因为尼克斯的两名大个侧翼能够在一对一防守塔图姆和布朗时不需要太多协防。纽约还能在三分线外惩罚波士顿；除了米切尔·罗宾逊，每个人都有威胁，替补席上的麦克布莱德和沙梅特更是高产射手。
两支球队都大量出手三分也大量放对手投三分，因此“投篮随机性”将成为这轮系列赛的重头戏。去年随机性之神眷顾了尼克斯，但我并不赌历史会重演。波士顿的前场运动能力比一年前更强，且全队到处都是投篮和控球点。虽然他们本赛季的部分战绩归功于非塔图姆球员惊人的健康状况，但他们在塔图姆缺阵期间依然赢了这么多球，这足以证明这套阵容的深度。预测：凯尔特人6场晋级
里德·谢泼德作为首发为休斯顿注入了活力。(Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
西部半决赛
(1) 俄克拉荷马城 vs. (5) 休斯顿
休斯顿在揭幕战将雷霆拖入加时，并在2月击败了雷霆（尽管当时谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大缺阵），但这些结果掩盖了火箭的真实劣势。火箭缺乏投射，这让他们在面对雷霆那种疯狂施压球权、不惜漏掉三分的防守时显得捉襟见肘。
随着史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 赛季报销，火箭那种“乱投一气然后冲抢篮板”的策略遭到了沉重打击。虽然将里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 提入首发改善了糟糕的空间问题（他首发时火箭17胜4负），但火箭在控球和空间上依然显得匮乏。
在面对俄克拉荷马城这样一支哪怕多名核心长期缺阵依然统治全联盟的球队时，这是一个致命伤。如果亚当斯在场，火箭对阵雷霆会很有看头，因为他们或许能靠蛮力取胜。在他缺席的情况下，火箭缺乏足够的体型和深度来弥补他们在失误和三分球上的劣势。预测：雷霆5场晋级
(2) 圣安东尼奥 vs. (3) 丹佛
文班对约基奇。准备好爆米花吧，这绝对会很精彩。
尽管战绩有差距，但我认为掘金在这场对决中有一战之力。丹佛在两队四次交锋中赢了三次，包括4月初那场经典的加时赛。两队在排名上8个胜场的差距，主要源于丹佛那些在季后赛几乎见不到光的替补球员。丹佛前六名球员中有四人至少缺席了28场，约基奇也缺席了17场，但在季后赛这都不重要；掘金在第二轮派出的阵容将是满血状态。
即便如此，我依然认为圣安东尼奥的替补席占优。如果文班和约老师打平，替补的表现将成为决定因素。迪兰·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在赛季末表现惊人，凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 有望获得最佳第六人，而卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 和哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 都比丹佛除了佩顿·沃森 (Peyton Watson) 之外的任何替补要好——希望沃森在第二轮开始前能从腿筋拉伤中康复。
如果你在找关键数据，试试这个：约基奇-穆雷-戈登三人组共同打了26场比赛，每百回合净效率为+19.9，甚至优于马刺绝大多数的最佳组合。但另一方面，圣安东尼奥最常用的12个三人组合净效率全部达到两位数，而文班亚马和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 的组合净效率也高达+17.0。
这让我回到了对这轮系列赛的预判：首发对首发时，丹佛略占上风；但一旦进入替补混战，马刺优势巨大。我认为这会打到最后时刻，我不太自信地选择圣安东尼奥。预测：马刺7场晋级
东部决赛
(2) 波士顿 vs. (4) 克利夫兰
东部目前有点“剪刀石头布”的态势。我认为底特律对纽约来说是个硬骨头，对波士顿可能也一样。但活塞必须先过骑士这一关，我不确定他们能否做到。
可惜的是，波士顿对阵克利夫兰正中凯尔特人下怀。他们在防守端可以放空莫布里的三分，而在进攻端，骑士没有足够的大个侧翼来应对凯尔特人的冲击。凯尔特人赢下了本赛季全部三次交锋（尽管都是在詹姆斯·哈登交易之前），且只有一场比分接近。
另一方面，这给了我们一年前就以为会看到的对决，直到印第安纳和纽约颠覆了整个东部对阵图。也许这一次，东部纸面实力最强的两支球队真的能会师分区决赛？
对于一支面临重大奢侈税压力的克利夫兰队来说，一个更现实的问题是：打进分区决赛够吗？或者，在总决赛前出局是否预示着休赛期的又一次大洗牌？预测：凯尔特人5场晋级
文班亚马率领的马刺队是本赛季NBA最令人惊喜的球队之一。总决赛之旅近在咫尺吗？(Grant Burke / NBAE via Getty Images)
西部决赛
(1) 俄克拉荷马城 vs. (2) 圣安东尼奥
马刺本赛季给俄克拉荷马城制造了巨大的麻烦，在五次交锋中赢了四次，净效率领先+5.2。如果说有哪支球队能拉雷霆下马，那就是这一支。
但我现在还不能把票投给圣安东尼奥。毕竟这是文班亚马和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔的第一次季后赛之旅。另外三名首发球员也从未打过第二轮。他们的教练也是第一次经历这些。而且，当我回顾满血版雷霆的数据时，那表现简直太可怕了。
赛季初是每个人都最拼命的时候，这也是为什么即使阵容变化、伤病发生、战术调整，赛季初的比赛在春天依然具有预测价值。雷霆在赛季开局打出了惊人的24胜1负，哪怕他们的二号球星杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 缺席了前19场比赛。即便威廉姆斯缺席了49场，以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 缺席了35场，亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 缺席了26场，亚历山大缺席了14场，切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 缺席了13场，雷霆依然势不可挡。
让威廉姆斯找回季后赛状态依然是当务之急——自1月15日以来，他只有一次单场出场超过28分钟。但俄克拉荷马城应该有两个轻松的前两轮来让他热身。与此同时，雷霆有三个中锋可以轮番消耗文班亚马，他们下手极快的防守面对马刺不稳定的三分投射威胁有限，而且后卫线武器库充足。事实上，一个关键的细节是，雷霆在对阵马刺时几乎不需要卢·多特 (Lu Dort)，可以将他的时间分给进攻更犀利的阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 或以赛亚·乔 (Isaiah Joe)。
我认为这将是一个梦幻般的系列赛，将两位超级巨星（文班亚马和亚历山大）推向极限，并很可能决定最终的冠军归属。文班的时代终将来临……但还不是现在。预测：雷霆7场晋级
NBA总决赛
俄克拉荷马城 vs. 波士顿
这是我连续第四年预测波士顿打进总决赛！这也是我一年前预测的冠亚军对决（再往前两年，我预测的是凯尔特人对掘金）。
波士顿的投射和对三分球的依赖可以利用雷霆防守端的一些倾向，尤其是因为凯尔特人并不容易失误。两队在3月份的两场激战中平分秋色，最显著的特征是波士顿在两场比赛中都赢得了球权掌控战。如果凯尔特人能对雷霆持续做到这一点，他们的致命投射足以让雷霆陷入困境。
尽管如此，我还是赌雷霆那双“快手”能在漫长的系列赛中制造更多混乱。此外，只要哈尔滕施泰因和霍姆格伦都在阵中，俄克拉荷马城在篮板球上应该占优。
拥有塔图姆的凯尔特人是一个值得尊敬的对手。他们在休赛期流失了大量天赋，并在赛季大部分时间失去了塔图姆的情况下，依然能回到这个水准，这简直不可思议。
然而最终，我依然倾向于雷霆的天赋。即便在伤病潮中，他们依然赢下了64场比赛，并打出了史上第八高的净胜分。亚历山大本赛季在关键时刻的表现极具统治力，这让他们在罕见的比分胶着的比赛中拥有了终极武器。预测：雷霆6场夺冠
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA playoffs 2026 preview: Why OKC is primed for a repeat, and the Knicks may fall short
NBA playoffs 2026 preview: Why OKC is primed for a repeat, and the Knicks may fall short
“It’s wide open!”
That’s everyone’s favorite saying when the NBA postseason begins, and in recent years, it’s been more true than ever. Favorites have been unusually vulnerable in the post-pandemic NBA, with teams seeded fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth all making at least the conference finals, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat winning the Eastern Conference in 2023 and the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers being one half away from winning the 2025 title.
The long-term average is that fewer than four teams without home-court advantage will prevail out of 15 series, but the last six seasons have been different: 31 non-home-court teams have advanced, or about 5.2 per year. That includes five teams without home-court advantage winning series last season and 18 occurrences in the last three years.
For some weird reason, the second round has been mayhem. Teams with home-court advantage in the conference semifinals have won just nine of the last 24 series! Last season, two 60-win teams (Cleveland, Boston) were bounced in the second round, and a third (Oklahoma City) needed seven games to survive.
Nonetheless, this time around, I expect things to be a bit chalkier. Two teams dominated the Western Conference all season, and the odds would seem to heavily favor one or the other being our eventual champion. And historically, the rule of thumb has held for 45 years now with one glaring exception in 1995: If you aren’t seeded third or better and didn’t win at least 52 games with at least a plus-3.0 margin (pro-rated for shortened seasons), you’re not winning a title.
That leaves six qualifiers this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. It’s fair to say that it would be a huge surprise if a team other than these six was our eventual champ, with perhaps a slight wink to the Cleveland Cavaliers as a dark horse. Recent injuries to the Los Angeles Lakers only make that more true.
Our first round might be a drab one indeed: A potential banger between the Lakers and Houston Rockets now seems to be a mismatch due to injuries to Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, while at least three other series feature overwhelming talent disparities. Nonetheless, things could once again get mighty interesting once the second round rolls around, and the West finals might be epic.
Before we look at my crystal ball, let’s do a quick performance review on my 2025 picks: I got six of eight first-round series right, and I got the “Thunder win it all part” right … but yikes, that second round killed me. Nine correct bracket lines out of 15 isn’t bad when the chalk outcome was also nine, but let’s see if we can improve on that.
East first round
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Charlotte/Orlando
Charlotte is good enough to win a series against a team of Detroit’s caliber. I just don’t know if the Hornets are built to beat a team of Detroit’s style. The Pistons won all three regular-season meetings, and only one of them was close. You can see why when you line up the teams.
Charlotte doesn’t have a great matchup for Cade Cunningham, and its lack of size is a problem on the defensive glass against the Pistons’ mashers. The Pistons also have enough quality defenders to handle Charlotte’s spaced-out, shooting-heavy lineup without breaking down. That’s when the starters are on the floor; once the benches come in, the Pistons have a huge advantage. I’m hoping the Hornets advance anyway, because these two teams do not like each other.
As for Orlando … sigh. The Magic have been a crushing disappointment this season, but if they survive Charlotte, they have a chance to make things interesting. The Magic split their four meetings with Detroit, even winning in Detroit in November despite shooting 5 of 30 from 3, and their size and theoretical upside of the starting group give them a puncher’s chance. Orlando is finally at full strength with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs back, and if it can keep its top eight players on the floor, it can have solid lineups.
While I think Detroit is getting short shrift and people have been slow to realize just how good this team is, I also think the Pistons are going to get a real series in Round 1. Pick: Pistons in 6 against either
(2) Boston vs. (7) Philadelphia (Preview)
Philly played three tough games against Boston in the opening weeks of the season and won two of them, even with Joel Embiid only playing a major role in one of the three. In the four meetings this season, Philadelphia has been able to slow Boston’s offense enough to give itself a chance, despite some fairly ugly shooting numbers on the Sixers side. The return of Paul George also adds another plus wing defender to help deal with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
That said, without Embiid and with Tatum added to the Boston side, the talent disparity is real. This would be a favorable matchup for Philly if Embiid were playing and Tatum were still convalescing, but given the opposite scenario, it feels like a long slog of Philly guards trying to score against loaded-up defenses. Pick: Boston in 5
The Hawks have struggled to defend Karl-Anthony Towns in the past. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Images)
(3) New York vs. (6) Atlanta (Preview)
The Hawks took off once they added CJ McCollum at midseason, posting a ridiculous plus-20.3 net rating with their new starting five. Even allowing for some less-than-daunting opposition on their late-season schedule, that’s exclamation-point worthy. What’s perhaps more sustainable is that, even over the full season, the quartet with their other four starters together (Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu) was plus-7.0 per 100 possessions.
That stands in stark contrast to the underwhelming plus-2.8 mark posted by the Knicks’ core four of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have bigger names, but the Hawks’ main guys have been better.
So why am I picking New York to prevail? Two reasons: the bench and rebounding. New York’s bench units have been a massive advantage all season, with Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet all making major contributions. Meanwhile, Robinson and Towns dominate the boards, while the Hawks’ non-Okongwu units have been decimated on the glass.
Atlanta’s second group, meanwhile, is a work in progress at best. Jonathan Kuminga has shown flashes of reliable scoring in the non-Johnson minutes, but otherwise, things look rough. Gabe Vincent is getting double-digit minutes with a job description of “Just don’t doom us,” and there is no backup center to speak of until Jock Landale returns from a late-season ankle sprain. Zaccharie Risacher and Corey Kispert are also exchanging DNPs depending on who looked worse in the previous game.
Things are so desperate that I wonder if the Hawks might unearth Buddy Hield, who was mysteriously placed in witness protection upon arriving from Golden State at the trade deadline but made seven 3s and scored 31 points in 21 minutes in the season finale in Miami when he finally got a chance to play.
The last meeting between these teams was a 108-105 Knicks win in Atlanta in early April that had playoff vibes. The Knicks’ starters won their minutes, but the Hawks won the rebound battle, even with Robinson grabbing 12 in 19 minutes.
Nonetheless, I think this is a decent matchup for New York. The Hawks have always struggled to deal with Towns, who has a major size edge on Okongwu, and Anunoby is a tremendous foil for Johnson, Atlanta’s do-everything star. The Knicks will survive and advance*.* Pick: Knicks in 6
(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Toronto (Preview)
The Cavaliers are a confounding team: immensely talented on paper yet underachieving through most of the season. Subtract all the games against tankers, and Cleveland looked shaky even after acquiring James Harden at the trade deadline and returning Max Strus’ Headband from injury. While the starting five Cleveland rolls out will be the best it’s had all season, much of the same can be said for Toronto, the team that won all three regular-season meetings.
Here’s the thing: Cleveland’s lineup is pretty top-heavy, with starter-laden units still having at or near double-digit net rating advantages all season. In contrast, Toronto’s starting group just wasn’t all that good. The Scottie Barnes-Immanuel Quickley-Brandon Ingram trio got 1,203 minutes together, and their net rating was a measly plus-3.9. The Raptors’ biggest advantage was Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili playing against second units, but that doesn’t scale to a playoff game where the bench guys get fewer minutes.
In contrast, the Cavs got a lot of negative minutes from players who either aren’t on the team anymore or will play microscopic roles in this series, although their compulsion to make sure Dennis Schröder gets 20 minutes a night has me a bit concerned.
Historically, No. 5 seeds win nearly half the time in the first round, and underdogs with a regular-season series advantage also fare much better. I definitely consider this one “live” as far as upset possibilities, but the talent disparity is just too large. Pick: Cavs in 6
West first round
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Warriors/Suns
Oklahoma City played Phoenix five times in the regular season, thanks to the NBA Cup, and lost to the Suns twice; however, one of those was the Suns obliterating Payton Sandfort and Brooks Barnhizer in a meaningless 82nd game.
Phoenix is an interesting matchup because the Suns have multiple defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — fellow Canadian Dillon Brooks likely gets the first shot before Ryan Dunn and Jordan Goodwin take turns — and because Phoenix’s 3-point shooting is a nice antidote against a Thunder team that surrenders 3s to force turnovers. Phoenix should also be close to full strength by Sunday, with Grayson Allen (who had one of the league’s most underrated seasons) likely returning from a hamstring injury.
Even with that, the Suns lost to Oklahoma City by 49 and 27 in the regular season, and the Thunder — low-key wracked by injuries during the regular season — should also be back at full strength for the playoffs.
If it’s Golden State, good night and good luck. The Thunder won all four meetings against the Warriors by 24, 12, 37 and seven. The version of Golden State with Steph Curry and Kristaps Porziņģis both playing is the best it can muster with Jimmy Butler sidelined, but the Warriors’ inclination toward reckless turnovers doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the handsy Thunder. Pick: Thunder in 4 against Golden State; Thunder in 5 against Phoenix
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Portland (Preview)
Don’t be surprised if this is fairly interesting. All three regular-season games between these teams were competitive, although Victor Wembanyama missed two of them. The Blazers even won at San Antonio despite myriad injuries leaving them with just four players available who will get run in this series (Caleb Love, Sidy Cissoko, Rayan Rupert and Yang Hansen combined to play 75 minutes that night).
Portland is at full strength, has elite defenders up and down the roster and threw a huge wrinkle at the Phoenix Suns in crunch time Tuesday with a Jerami Grant-at-center lineup that the Suns couldn’t stop. (The “Stop playing Scoot Henderson” adjustment also helped.) Deni Avdija was a monster against the Suns, a huge, bruising forward who relentlessly attacks off the dribble and presents a tricky matchup for the Spurs’ mostly smaller wings. And the Blazers also have enough size to at least have a chance against Wembanyama.
The Blazers’ undoing will be a lack of shooting, an especially notable weakness against a team that makes the rim area a no-go zone, and their still-glaring inability to score in the non-Avdija minutes. But Portland is already playing with house money just by being here. Pick: Spurs in 5
Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves are no strangers to Denver in the postseason. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
(3) Denver vs. (6) Minnesota (Preview)
On paper, this is the best first-round series, with two high-quality, mostly healthy teams that already have significant history. In reality, I’m not sure how hard this will be for Denver.
The Nuggets won three of the four meetings between the teams this season despite navigating numerous injuries along the way, and they seem much more fit and ready for this series than the wobbling Wolves. On the other hand, Minnesota has made the conference finals in consecutive seasons, beating Denver to get there in 2024 and arriving as the sixth seed in 2025. Obviously, some historical precedents favor the Wolves.
Nonetheless, this might be the most complete team that the Nuggets have ever put around Nikola Jokić, including a bench that doesn’t immediately wilt the second he checks out of a game. Minnesota’s depth seems shakier this time around, and the difference in starting lineups is profound: The Wolves’ go-to quintet was plus-7.9 per 100 this season; Denver’s was a staggering plus-13.5.
I’m excited to see what this looks like on the court, but in the end, it might be a bit easier for Denver than people expect. Pick: Nuggets in 5
(4) L.A. Lakers vs. (5) Houston (Preview)
The Lakers’ playoff hopes went up in smoke when Dončić and Reaves both suffered injuries in early April that will likely keep them out of this series. L.A. still has home-court advantage and can likely conjure up at least one night of throwback LeBron James heroics combined with baffling Houston fourth-quarter offense. However, the Lakers’ injury losses expose one of the NBA’s worst benches. The Rockets will have a massive on-court talent advantage, and it will be a major story if they fail to advance. Pick: Rockets in 5
East semifinals
(1) Detroit vs. (4) Cleveland
I like this Pistons team a lot, but I do not love this matchup. Cleveland was really comfortable playing against the Pistons all season, hammering them in Detroit in November and then playing three close games later in the season. The season series was 2-2 with a plus-18 Cavs scoring advantage, and that’s with Donovan Mitchell missing two of the games.
The overwhelming question for the Pistons: How do they score against Cleveland’s Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt? Detroit’s offensive rating wasn’t above the league average in any of the four games and averaged a measly 104, which is five points worse than Brooklyn’s 30th-ranked attack.
The Cavs’ four best players only played seven games and 92 minutes together but had an eye-popping plus-26.7 net rating in that time. If you’re looking for a larger sample, the Mitchell-Allen-Mobley grouping got 36 games together and sported a solid plus-10.0 rating. That’s worse than Detroit’s mark with its top players, but not dramatically: The Cade Cunningham-Jalen Duren-Ausar Thompson grouping was a plus-12.3.
Detroit’s main advantage in the regular season over Cleveland was in the minutes for players who will be non-factors in the playoffs. Most of the bad players the Cavs cycled through while they were going through injuries and trades likely won’t see the floor; similarly, Detroit has the best third center in the league, but he might not play a minute.
Between that and the terrible matchup for Detroit, I’m going to go out on a limb and take the Cavs*.* Pick: Cleveland in 6
(2) Boston vs. (3) New York
The Knicks were comfortable enough with the idea of playing Boston that they didn’t bother tanking down to the fourth seed. I get it: New York won three of four against the Celtics and beat them when it mattered last year, and in contrast, the Pistons hammered the Knicks three times this season.
This matchup favors New York in some ways, as the Knicks’ two big wings are capable of guarding Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown one-and-one without needing much help. New York can also hurt Boston from the 3-point line; everyone except Mitchell Robinson is a threat, with subs Miles McBride and Landry Shamet being big volume guys.
Both teams take and allow tons of 3s, so expect “shooting variance” to be a big story in this series. It was last year when the variance gods favored the Knicks, but I’m not betting on a repeat. Boston has more frontcourt athleticism than a year ago and shooting and ballhandling everywhere. While some of their record this season came about due to remarkable health from the non-Tatum players, the fact that they won so much in Tatum’s absence is a remarkable indicator of the rest of the roster’s quality. Pick: Celtics in 6
Reed Sheppard has given Houston a boost as a starter. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
West semifinals
(1) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Houston
Houston took the Thunder to overtime in Oklahoma City on opening night and beat the Thunder in February (albeit sans Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but those results flatter the Rockets. Houston’s lack of shooting seems to make it ill-equipped to handle a Thunder defense that pressures the ball relentlessly but gives up a lot of 3s in the process.
Houston’s strategy of throwing up whatever and then crashing the boards took a major hit with Steven Adams’ season-ending injury, and while adding Reed Sheppard to the starting group upgraded a dire spacing situation (Houston is 17-4 with him as a starter), the Rockets still seem very short on ballhandling and spacing.
That’s a particular problem against a team as dominant as Oklahoma City was this year, even with several key players missing long stretches with injuries. Houston with Adams was an interesting proposition against the Thunder, because the Rockets might have been able to brute force their way to victory. In his absence, the Rockets lack the size and depth needed to offset their likely deficits in turnovers and 3s. Pick: Thunder in 5
(2) San Antonio vs. (3) Denver
Wemby. Joker. Get your popcorn, this is gonna be amazing.
Despite the disparity in records, I think the Nuggets are up for the fight in this one. Denver won three of the four meetings between these two teams, including an early-April overtime classic, and the eight-game difference in the standings stems largely from minutes given to replacement-level Denver scrubs who will see little to no daylight in this series. Four of Denver’s top six players missed at least 28 games, and Jokić missed 17, but that doesn’t matter in the playoffs; the lineup Denver sends out for Round 2 should be fully loaded.
That said, I still think San Antonio’s bench has the edge, and if Wemby and Joker play each other to a draw, that will end up as the deciding factor. Dylan Harper came on like gangbusters late in the season, Keldon Johnson might win Sixth Man of the Year, and Luke Kornet and Harrison Barnes are both better than any Denver sub save Peyton Watson, who hopefully will be back from a hamstring strain by the time the second round starts.
If you’re looking for a key stat, try this one: The Nikola Jokić-Jamal Murray-Aaron Gordon combo played 26 games together and had a net rating of plus-19.9 per 100 possessions, better even than nearly all of the Spurs’ best lineup combos. On the other hand, San Antonio’s 12 most common lineup trios all had double-digit net rating advantages, and the Wembanyama-Stephon Castle duo wasn’t exactly chopped liver at plus-17.0.
That takes us back to my presumption for this series: a slight edge for Denver when it’s starters vs. starters, but a major advantage for the Spurs once subs start mixing in. I think this goes down to the wire and will unconfidently take San Antonio. Pick: Spurs in 7
East finals
(2) Boston vs. (4) Cleveland
There’s a bit of a rock-paper-scissors situation in the East. I think Detroit would be a very tough matchup for New York and probably also a difficult one for Boston. But the Pistons have to get past the Cavs first, and I’m not sure they will.
A Boston-Cleveland matchup, alas, plays into the Celtics’ hands. They can leave Evan Mobley alone at the 3-point line on defense, and they have too many big wings for the Cavs to handle on offense. The Celtics won all three head-to-head meetings this season (although each was before the James Harden trade), and only one of the three was close.
On the other hand, this gives us the matchup we thought we were betting on a year ago, before Indiana and New York upended the entire East bracket. Maybe this time around, the two most talented teams on paper in the conference can actually survive through to the conference finals?
Perhaps a better question for an itchy Cleveland team with major luxury-tax issues going forward: Is making the conference finals good enough? Or, would a defeat before the NBA Finals portend another shakeup in the offseason? Pick: Celtics in 5
Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs have been one of the NBA’s most surprising teams this season. Is an NBA Finals run on the horizon? (Grant Burke / NBAE via Getty Images)
West finals
( 1) Thunder vs. (2) Spurs
The Spurs gave Oklahoma City a ton of trouble this season, winning four of the five meetings between the two teams with a plus-5.2 net margin. If a team is going to take out Oklahoma City, it’s this one.
I can’t quite pull the lever for San Antonio yet, though. Not when Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle are going through their first playoffs. Not when the other three starters have never played in the second round. Not when their coach is also going through this for the first time. And not when I go back through the data on how awesome the fully loaded version of the Thunder can be.
The beginning of the season is the time when everyone is trying the hardest, which is why those games often have predictive value in the spring even as rosters change, injuries happen and schemes shift. The Thunder began the season an amazing 24-1, even though their second-best player (Jalen Williams) missed their first 19 games. Even as Williams missed 49 games, Isaiah Hartenstein missed 35, Alex Caruso missed 26, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed 14 and Chet Holmgren missed 13, the Thunder kept on rolling.
Getting Williams back up to playoff speed remains on the to-do list — he’s played more than 28 minutes in a game once since Jan. 15 — but Oklahoma City should have two soft early rounds to ramp him up. Meanwhile, the Thunder have three centers they can throw at Wembanyama, a handsy defense that will only be lightly threatened by the Spurs’ iffy 3-point shooting and backcourt weapons for days. One key subplot, in fact, is that the Thunder hardly need Lu Dort against the Spurs and could likely tilt his minutes toward the more offensively prolific Ajay Mitchell or Isaiah Joe.
I think this will be a fantastic series that will test both superstars (Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander) to their limit, and that it’s likely to decide the ultimate champion. Wemby’s time is coming … but not quite yet. Pick: Thunder in 7
NBA Finals
Oklahoma City vs. Boston
My fourth straight year picking Boston to make the NBA Finals! This was also the matchup I had for the crown a year ago (the two previous years, I picked Celtics-Nuggets).
Boston’s shooting and 3-point heaviness can take advantage of some of the Thunder’s defensive tendencies, especially because the Celtics aren’t careless with the ball. The two sides split a pair of closely contested meetings in March, with the standout feature being Boston winning the possession battle in both games. If the Celtics can do that consistently against Oklahoma City, their shooting is deadly enough to put the Thunder in trouble.
Nonetheless, I’m betting on the Thunder’s hands to cause more havoc over the course of a long series. Plus, as long as Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are both in the mix, Oklahoma City should have an advantage on the boards.
With Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are a worthy adversary. The fact that they shed heaps of talent in the offseason, lost Tatum for most of the season and still came back to this level is extraordinary.
Ultimately, however, I still lean on the Thunder’s talent. Even while wading through all their injuries, they won 64 games with the eighth-best scoring margin of all time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been dominant in clutch situations this season, gives them a go-to weapon in their rare close games.Pick: Thunder in 6
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic